VICTORIA MARKET QUARTERLY UPDATE
1st Quarter
2022
MICHELE HOLMES COLLECTIVE • WWW.MHCOLLECTIVE.COM • 250.656.0911
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1st Quarter 2022 The first quarter of 2022 has seen our Greater Victoria Area Real Estate market begin to turn a corner. With the 2021 market being best described as a downward spiral with respect to the listing inventory. The distinct lack of inventory through the latter half of 2021 has seen demand on new listings skyrocket, and benchmark prices continuously increase. Sales numbers through Q1-2022 have experienced a steady increase through January, February, and March with 474, 718, and 833 sales respectively for a total of 2,025 sales. This compared to only 1,836 sales in Q42021 which also had monthly sales numbers decline from October through December. Q1-2022 has seen a significant turn for new listing inventory. Q4-2021 only saw 1,961 new listings come to market. This compared to 2,841 new listings this past quarter. This is welcome news for the significant pool of buyers whom have been struggling with low inventories; an absence of quality homes; multiple offer competitions, and above asking price sales.
HISTORICAL ANNUAL VOLUME (TOTAL VALUE IN BILLIONS OF YEAR-TO-DATE TRANSACTIONS) HISTORICAL ANNUAL VOLUME $10
$9
WWW.MHCOLLECTIVE.COM
1st Quarter
2022
$8
$7
$6
BILLIONS
Holmes Realty Ltd. 2481 Beacon Ave. Sidney, BC V8L 1X9 250-656-0911
$5
$4
$3
$2
$1
$0
Absorption Rate ACTIVE LISTINGS
6
5.3
5.1
5
4500
4.2
4.3
4.1
4.7
4.6
4.0
3.9
4.3 4.0
3500
3.7
3.5
3
2.8
3000
2.2
1.8
1.6
Oct-2019
Jun-2019
1.1
Aug-2019
Jun-2018
Apr-2018
Feb-2018
Oct-2017
Apr-2017
Feb-2017
Oct-2016
Dec-2016
Jun-2016
Aug-2016
Apr-2016
2018
2019
December
November
October
2022
September
2021
2017 August
July
2020
2016
June
May
April
March
February
2019
Feb-2016
Oct-2015
2015
1.2
Dec-2019
1.3
Apr-2019
1.4
Feb-2019
1.3
Oct-2018
1.3
1.3
Dec-2015
Jun-2015
Aug-2015
Apr-2015
Feb-2015
Oct-2014
2014
Dec-2014
Jun-2014
Feb-2014
Oct-2013
1.3
1.6 Dec-2013
Jun-2013
Apr-2013
Dec-2012
2013
January
0
Feb-2013
1.4
1
1000
1.6
Aug-2013
1500
1.4
2.0
Dec-2018
1.5
2000
Aug-2018
1.9
Aug-2014
2
2.4
Apr-2014
2500
4.2
4.0
Dec-2017
4
5.2
Jun-2017
Months of Inventory
5000
4000
5.6
4.7
Aug-2017
5500
Greater Victoria Area - (2019-2022)
5.7
Total historical annual sales volume remained at similar levels to last year with already approximately 2.1 Billion in sales volume for Q1-2022. Last year, 2021 ended with an all-time low absorption rate of only 1.1 months. 2022 has started to see that number rebound somewhat with an increase to 1.6 months of inventory. While this is welcome news for Buyers, we are still far from what is considered a balanced market of between 5 & 6 months of inventory. Despite the increasing inventory, we are still a long way from satisfying the needs of the existing buyer pool.
This past quarter benchmark prices remain very strong for a single family home throughout the Greater Victoria Area during the fourth quarter. Q1 had an average increase of 7% across the VREB market area. The Saanich Peninsula saw an 8.9% increase, Victoria’s core area saw 7.8% and the Westshore experienced a 5.3% increase. The MLS Home Price Index Benchmark price for a single family home in the Greater Victoria Area was a staggering $1,141,300 at the
% DIFFERENCE OF BENCHMARK PRICE (Q4-2021 to Q1-2022 — Greater Victoria Area)
VICTORIA REB SFD-ALL
CORE SFD-ALL
WESTSHORE SFD-ALL
PENINSULA SFD-ALL
BENCHMARK PRICES Single Family Benchmark Prices $1,141,300
Townhouse Benchmark Prices $763,300
Condominium Benchmark Prices $631,100
end of Q1-2022. In the downtown core, the benchmark was $1,233,700 at the end of Q1. The benchmark was $1,001,400 in Westshore, and $1,233,500 on the Peninsula. At the time of writing, there were 295 single family homes available for sale in the Victoria Area. Of those, only 7 are priced below 800 thousand, and 43 are below 1 million.
SALES OVER LIST PRICE
OVER LIST PRICE
AT LIST PRICE
BELOW LIST PRICE
In Q1 of this year, 70% of homes sold were above their MLS listed price, and a further 10% sold at their list price. 8 out of 10 of the reported MLS sales were at, or above, their list price. The data sources used to craft these statistics do not allow us to track how many of these sales were multiple offer competitions; however, it is certain that the majority of these sales were the result of multiple buyers submitting competing bids.
This year, the BC Government, by recommendation of the BC Financial Services Authority will be introducing legislation that requires a “cooling off period” for resale properties. This legislation is aimed to better protect buyers in this heated market. This is a concerning move to our industry as we are doubtful it will achieve its aims. Its addition will create even more risk and uncertainty for sellers, and it will do nothing to alleviate the single largest problem with Real Estate in British Columbia, the shortage of available housing.
Active Listings / Number of Sales Greater Victoria - (last 24 months) 3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Active Listings
Number of Sales
Market demand for property below 3 million has remained strong in the Greater Victoria Area into 2022. At the end of Q1, the average absorption rate of property under 3 million dollars was just under one month of supply. Our luxury market, above 3 million, despite the much higher absorption rate, remains strong. At the end of Q4-2021 the absorption rate for property above 3 million was 6.21 months. This rate has dropped over the last three months to 5.08 months of inventory indicating increasing demand for such luxury offerings.
Absorption Rates Greater Victoria Area (Core, Westshore & Peninsula) Absorption Rates by Price Range March 2022
6
5.08 Months of Inventory
5
4
3
2.25 2
1
0.75
0.81 0.76
1.11 0.22
0
Under $600K
$600K to $800K $800K to $1M
$1M to $1.5M
$1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
ABSORPTION RATES (MONTHS OF LISTING SUPPLY) Absorption Rates - Single Family Detached March 2022
2.50
2.00
Months of Inventory
2.00
2.00
1.83 1.67 1.42
1.50
1.24
1.00
1.22
1.16
1.29
1.00 0.97 1.03
1.00 0.77
0.50
0.00
Absorption Rates - Townhouses
Absorption Rates - Condominiums
March 2022
March 2022
2.50
4.00
2.18
3.50
2.00
2.50
2.00
1.64
1.57
1.50
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.09
0.92
0.78 0.39
0.80
0.69
Months of Inventory
Months of Inventory
2.00
3.00
1.50
1.50
1.29 1.13 1.00
1.02 0.90
0.82 0.65
0.57
0.50
0.45
0.26
0.00
0.00
NO ACTIVE 0.00 LISTINGS
ABSORPTION RATES BY PRICE Victoria Absorption Rates by Price Range
Saanich Peninsula Absorption Rates by Price Range March 2022
March 2022
4
2
3.50 3.00
2
1.05
1.29
Months of Inventory
1.50
1.57
1
NO SALES
NO ACTIVE
$600K to $800K
$800K to $1M
1.13 1
0.60
0.54
0 Under $600K
0.40
0.55
0.19
LISTINGS PAST 3 0.00 0.00 MONTHS $1M to $1.5M $1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
2022’s first quarter has proved nothing short of a remarkable start to the year. The local Victoria Area market remains a very lucrative opportunity for Sellers. However, we are beginning to see some signs of this frantic pace beginning slowing down. Now more than ever, if you are considering selling and are interested in knowing what your home might be worth, please get in touch for a complimentary home evaluation.
0
Under $600K
$600K to $800K $800K to $1M
$1M to $1.5M
$1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
Saanich East Absorption Rates by Price Range March 2022
8
7.33
7
6
Months of Inventory
Months of Inventory
3
5
4
3
1.50
2
1
0
0.75 0.68
NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES
0.00 Under $600K
Oak Bay Absorption Rates by Price Range
$600K to $800K $800K to $1M
$1M to $1.5M
1.17 0.38 $1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
Langford Absorption Rates by Price Range
March 2022
March 2022
5
6.60
7
3.90
4
6
3.00
3
Months of Inventory
Months of Inventory
4
3 2 2
5
4
3.00
3
2
1.03
1 1 0
NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES
NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES
0.41 0.52
NO ACTIVE LISTINGS OR SALES
1
0.00 0.00 0.00 Under $600K
$600K to $800K $800K to $1M
0 $1M to $1.5M
$1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
NO ACTIVE LISTINGS
NO ACTIVE LISTINGS
Under $600K
$600K to $800K
1.34 0.65
OR SALES 0.00 0.00 $800K to $1M
$1M to $1.5M $1.5 to $2M
$2M to $3M
Over $3M
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250-656-0911 • MHCOLLECTIVE@HOLMESREALTY.COM HOLMES REALTY LTD • 2481 BEACON AVENUE SIDNEY BC V8L1X9 The information contained herein has been obtained through sources deemed reliable by Holmes Realty Ltd., but cannot be guaranteed for its accuracy.
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