Issue 2 | Aug. 2, 2017
Permits Plus + A bi-monthly statistics and advocacy update for HBA of F-M members FOR YOUR CALENDAR: Aug. 10 - Associate Appreciation & Family Picnic
Sept. 16-17 and 23-24 - Fall Parade of Homes Sept. 26 - Lunch Session: International Builders Show: What You Need To Know
Oct. 17 - Lunch Session: What to Expect From a Roadside Inspection Oct. 26 - Awards Gala & Annual Meeting
Visit the calendar at hbafm.com for details.
COUNTDOWN TO IBS
Registration is open for the 2018 National Association of Home Builders’ International Builders Show. The best deals on IBS registration only happen in August! • •
• •
IBS expo pass - free for NAHB members and $50 for nonmembers. Save $100 on a full registration, with access to 140+ IBS education sessions led by industry experts and phenomenal speakers. Discounted one-day education passes. Free spouse registration.
IBS is Jan. 9-11 in Orlando. Visit www.BuildersShow.com for details.
Published six times per year in addition to the Plains Builder, Permits Plus aims to provide a concise report on building permit numbers and a timely update on Association advocacy efforts.
The HBA of F-M produces two monthly building permit reports 1. F-M Metro covering Dilworth, Fargo, Moorhead and West Fargo, including comparisons from the last five years 2. Outlying towns covering Barnesville and Hawley in Minnesota and Casselton, Harwood, Horace, Kindred, Mapleton and Oxbow for North Dakota. This report was initiated in 2016, so five years of data is not available. These two reports are included as inserts in the Permits Plus. On page two, you will find a permit comparison chart for the F-M Metro, and a housing comparison chart for the F-M metro and outlying towns.
Observations on housing through June After two extremely strong housing starts in 2015 and 2016, this year’s permit numbers covering Dilworth, Fargo, Moorhead and West Fargo have come back to earth. To put it in perspective, 2017’s second quarter ranks in the top ten of all housing starts for the metro. TOP 10 SECOND QUARTERS FOR HOUSING Rank
Year
1
2004
3
2015
2
2005
Housing Starts
758 621 611
4
2006
573
6
2014
500
8
2007
484
10
2017
5 7
9
2016 2013
2003
571
487
470 430
Through June, housing activity in outlying markets (primarily Horace, Mapleton and Oxbow) picked up over last year. While the number of metro housing permits is down
25 percent, and value is down 27 percent, outlying housing permits are up 88 percent and value is up 124 percent. Considering housing permit valuation for outlying communities in addition to the F-M metro, total housing value is only down about 11 percent compared to this time last year. Some possibilities on the decrease in activity in the F-M Metro include the following: • Fluctuations in housing are common as markets adjust. -- There are more homes (existing and new construction) currently on the market than in the recent past. There is more supply in this seller’s market, while demand has dropped off a bit, or stayed about the same. • Outlying markets accounted for 62 housing permits through June and $23.7 million in value, drawing some activity to smaller communities. • Builders cite issues with land availability and land costs, Permits continued on page 4
HBA OF F-M + 1802 32ND AVE S + FARGO ND 58103 + (701) 232-5846 + HBAFM.COM + INFO@HBAFM.COM
PERMIT COMPARISON F-M METRO
HOUSING STARTS
HOUSING VALUE
TOTAL PERMITS
TOTAL VALUE
City
Dilworth Moorhead Fargo West Fargo Totals Dilworth Moorhead Fargo West Fargo Totals Housing Starts Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Totals Housing Starts Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Totals
Jan - June 2017 Jan - June 2016 5 7 53 77 197 261 175 226 430 571 $721,000 $1,595,900 $11,074,500 $15,375,000 $46,303,091 $65,128,902 $41,209,210 $53,619,983 $99,307,801 $135,719,785 430 571 8 10 44 56 1101 1160 271 274 11 30 187 233 2052 2334 $99,307,801 $135,719,785 $28,415,400 $23,727,655 $99,852,888 $60,378,141 $16,451,110 $17,362,695 $41,980,652 $84,402,251 $15,587,337 $67,195,526 $12,061,952 $17,877,995 $313,657,140 $406,664,048
Difference -2 -24 -64 -51 -141 -$874,900 -$4,300,500 -$18,825,811 -$12,410,773 -$36,411,984 -141 -2 -12 -59 -3 -19 -46 -282 -$36,411,984 $4,687,745 $39,474,747 -$911,585 -$42,421,599 -$51,608,189 -$5,816,043 -$93,006,908
Percentage Difference -29% -31% -25% -23% -25% -55% -28% -29% -23% -27% -25% -20% -21% -5% -1% -63% -20% -12% -27% 20% 65% -5% -50% -77% -33% -23%
Perspective: 2015’s second quarter was the strongest start since 2005. 2016’s second quarter was down just slightly from 2015.
SEE INSERT FOR COMPLETE F-M METRO AND OUTLYING REPORTS Public permit drop likely reflects the decline of schoolrelated construction the past five years.
HOUSING COMPARISON INCLUDING F-M METRO AND OUTLYING COMMUNITIES
METRO HOUSING PERMITS
Single Family Twin Home Row / Town House Duplex Totals METRO Single Family HOUSING Twin Home VALUE Row / Town House Duplex Totals OUTLYING Single Family HOUSING Twin Home PERMITS Row / Town House Duplex Totals OUTLYING Single Family HOUSING Twin Home VALUE Row / Town House Duplex Totals COMBINED STARTS COMBINED VALUE
2
Jan - June 2017 Jan - June 2016 361 437 65 60 4 50 0 24 430 571 $84,470,801 $110,054,180 $14,377,000 $12,131,933 $460,000 $9,933,672 $0 $3,600,000 $99,307,801 $135,719,785 57 27 5 6 0 0 0 0 62 33 $22,442,218 $9,900,743 $1,258,000 $681,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $23,700,218 $10,581,743
-76 5 -46 -24 -141 -$25,583,379 $2,245,067 -$9,473,672 -$3,600,000 -$36,411,984 30 -1 0 0 29 $12,541,475 $577,000 $0 $0 $13,118,475
Percentage Difference -17% 8% -92% -100% -25% -23% 19% -95% -100% -27% 111% -17% 0% 0% 88% 127% 85% 0% 0% 124%
Difference
492
604
-112
-19%
$106,913,019
$119,954,923
-$13,041,904
-11%
There has been a decline in row/ townhouse attached housing across communities that have routinely seen such activity.
Outlying markets accounted for 62 housing permits through June and $23.7 million in value, showing a draw of activity to smaller communities. Considering housing permit valuation for outlying communities in addition to the F-M metro, total housing value is only down about 11 percent compared to this time last year.
Permits Plus
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES June 2017
Minnesota
May 2017
June 2016
3.9%
3.9%
2.5%
3.2%
4.3%
4.9%
2.3%
2.6%
Source: bls.gov
3.7%*
North Dakota Source: bls.gov
2.3%*
United States Source: bls.gov
4.4%
Fargo-Moorhead Source: bls.gov
Not available.
*Preliminary
MORTGAGE RATES
Source: Wells Fargo as of July 19, 2017
30-Year Fixed
4.000%
15-Year Fixed
3.375%
30-Year Fixed FHA
4.625%
5-Year ARM
3.625%
30-Year Jumbo
4.000%
SINGLE AND MULTI-FAMILY BUILDING PERMITS May 2017
May 2016
Minnesota
% change
Source: NAHB
9,401
7,552
24%
North Dakota
JAN. 9-11, 2018 | ORLANDO
Source: NAHB
1,189
United States
1,399
-15%
471,368
7%
750
-6%
REGISTRATION NOW OPEN! BUILDERSSHOW.COM
Source: NAHB
502,055
Fargo-Moorhead Source: HBA of F-M
704
FRAMING LUMBER PRICES Source: National Association of Home Builders
Date
June 23
June 30 July 7
July 14
Lumber Composite Price
CME Futures
$397
$366
$397
$363
$399
$352.8
$411
$367.4
LOCAL REAL ESTATE
Source: F-M Area Association of Realtors Dilworth, Fargo, Moorhead, West Fargo | Single-Family, Condo, Townhouse, Twin Home, Duplex
July 19, 2017 YTD July 19, 2016 YTD % change Home Prices $230,073
$225,748
2%
$360, 754,942
$343,362,444
5%
236
279
-15%
1,332
1,242
7%
Closed MLS Volume
Closed MLS - New Construction Units Closed MLS - Existing Residential Units
U.S. REGULAR GASOLINE PRICES
Source: Energy Information Administration
U.S.
Midwest
June 19
June 26
$2.181
$2.171
$2.318
Issue 2 | Aug. 2, 2017
$2.288
(DOLLARS PER GALLON)
July 3
July 10
July 17
$2.139
$2.225
$2.181
$2.260
$2.297
$2.278
3
Home Builders Association of F-M 1802 32nd Ave. S. Fargo, N.D. 58103
Permits continued from page 1
particularly in West Fargo, floodproof basement costs in Fargo, and Minnesota’s more stringent code regulations, in playing a part of the attached housing numbers shrinking. • There has been a decline in row/townhouse attached housing across communities that have routinely seen such activity. HOUSING STARTS THROUGH 2ND QUARTER -- Minnesota’s fire sprinkler F-M METRO: 2003 - 2017 requirement for twin homes 800 (recently lifted) 700 also may have played a part 600 in lower twin home numbers 500 in Moorhead the past two 400 years. • Many homes being 300 constructed now were permitted in 200 2016 when there 100 was a push to pour basements and 0 cap them over the 2003 2007 2012 2017 winter.
Permits Plus
4
Home Builders Association of Fargo-Moorhead F-M Metro Building Permit Report 2017 - Year-to-Date (June) 2013
DILWORTH Total Housing Starts Single Family Twin Home Row / Town House Duplex Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Total
Permits
12 12 0 0 0 0 0 28 0 0 13 53
Units
0 0 0
2014 Value Permits
$2,598,000 $2,598,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $188,138 $0 $0 $25,000 $2,811,138
5 5 0 0 0 0 1 25 2 0 11 44
$8,382,100 $7,271,400 $1,110,700 $0 $0 $12,140,000 $26,882,941 $1,741,548 $8,208,304 $0 $83,000 $57,437,893
103 53 26 6 0 1 12 208 44 0 26 394
Units
0 0 0
2015 Value Permits
$1,317,000 $1,317,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1,078,000 $306,239 $3,015,000 $0 $58,999 $5,775,238
17 15 2 0 0 0 2 27 3 0 5 54
$18,377,599 $11,244,674 $3,892,925 $3,240,000 $0 $660,000 $6,770,597 $3,356,923 $6,896,314 $0 $107,010 $36,168,443
129 85 44 0 0 10 11 237 46 0 23 456
Units
0 0 0
2016 Value Permits
$4,830,850 $4,350,850 $480,000 $0 $0 $0 $120,000 $193,384 $205,000 $0 $15,689 $5,364,923
7 7 0 0 0 0 0 36 1 0 8 52
$25,494,499 $17,908,499 $7,586,000 $0 $0 $20,226,880 $6,402,388 $2,245,106 $5,546,574 $0 $559,800 $60,475,247
77 51 2 0 12 4 12 279 44 0 21 437
Units
0 0 0
2017 Value Permits
$1,595,900 $1,595,900 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $245,867 $750,000 $0 $45,000 $2,636,767
5 5 0 0 0 0 2 27 2 0 8 44
$15,375,000 $11,325,000 $450,000 $0 $3,600,000 $2,783,755 $11,112,758 $3,615,548 $40,292,906 $0 $287,593 $73,467,560
53 51 2 0 0 0 14 230 49 0 11 357
Units
5-Yr Avg Value
Permits
$721,000 $721,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $3,456,413 $165,304 $79,385 $0 $0 $4,422,102
9 9 0 0 0 0 1 29 2 0 9 49
$11,074,500 $10,824,500 $250,000 $0 $0 $0 $52,383,427 $2,799,371 $10,971,042 $0 $107,000 $77,335,340
81 54 17 1 2 4 13 225 44 0 21 389
$46,303,091 $42,947,091 $2,896,000 4 $460,000 0 $0 368 $28,415,400 $33,888,590 $10,100,262 $27,811,458 $3,250,239 $11,533,907 $161,302,947
213 171 23 18 0 8 27 559 198 23 168 1,194
$41,209,210 $29,978,210 $11,231,000 $0 $0 $0 $10,124,458 $3,386,173 $3,118,767 $12,337,098 $421,045 $70,596,751
217 160 37 6 0 4 14 199 31 4 20 488
$99,307,801 $84,470,801 $14,377,000 4 $460,000 0 $0 368 $28,415,400 $99,852,888 $16,451,110 $41,980,652 $15,587,337 $12,061,952 $313,657,140
520 394 77 25 2 15 55 1012 275 26 218 2,121
0 0 0
Units
0 0 0
Value
$2,212,550 $2,116,550 $96,000 $0 $0 $0 $930,883 $219,786 $809,877 $0 $28,938 $4,202,034
MOORHEAD Total Housing Starts Single Family Twin Home Row / Town House Duplex Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Total
41 31 10 0 0 5 16 173 39 0 25 299
0 0 190
24 0 6
0 0 240
0 24 36
0 0 0
5 5 94
$15,740,740 $11,714,815 $2,657,925 $648,000 $720,000 $7,162,127 $20,710,422 $2,751,699 $14,383,028 $0 $228,881 $60,976,897
FARGO Total Housing Starts Single Family Twin Home Row / Town House Duplex Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Total
224 180 32 12 0 9 26 511 228 22 141 1,161
$42,116,798 173 $35,922,798 137 $4,802,000 20 12 $1,392,000 16 0 $0 0 336 $22,490,999 14 $26,443,546 30 $8,999,222 524 $19,488,443 188 $13,865,084 39 $17,814,706 204 $151,218,798 1,172
$37,951,681 208 $31,357,681 147 $4,374,000 20 16 $2,220,000 41 0 $0 0 526 $43,838,000 2 $197,854,040 33 $8,437,448 549 $69,375,426 198 $76,854,991 21 $13,698,652 142 $448,010,238 1,153
$43,300,625 261 $35,185,805 218 $3,407,490 24 41 $4,707,330 19 0 $0 0 164 $15,579,840 6 $17,251,835 25 $8,216,208 598 $44,849,991 185 $112,475,294 24 $7,573,732 192 $249,247,525 1,291
$65,128,902 197 $56,120,630 175 $3,414,600 18 19 $5,593,672 4 0 $0 0 226 $20,943,900 8 $25,566,323 21 $9,759,179 613 $39,031,520 189 $37,566,436 7 $14,761,684 160 $212,757,944 1,195
18 0 324
$46,960,219 $40,306,801 $3,778,818 $2,874,600 $0 $26,253,628 $60,200,867 $9,102,464 $40,111,368 $48,802,409 $13,076,536 $244,507,490
WEST FARGO Total Housing Starts Single Family Twin Home Row / Town House Duplex Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Total
210 180 30 0 0 5 11 121 24 0 23 394
0 0 177
$43,027,180 $39,140,180 $3,887,000 $0 $0 $12,010,000 $10,064,000 $1,553,942 $15,120,162 $0 $292,857 $82,068,141
219 167 28 3 0 11 22 165 37 3 28 485
$47,333,744 $41,513,744 $2,940,000 24 $2,880,000 0 $0 384 $28,100,000 $39,498,375 $2,933,181 $4,093,615 $16,241,551 $1,258,400 $139,458,866
257 161 46 18 0 2 10 231 20 6 27 553
$56,001,111 $42,045,111 $6,630,000 50 $7,326,000 0 $0 12 $1,350,000 $21,858,480 $4,010,543 $7,652,100 $8,595,097 $1,942,500 $101,409,831
226 161 34 8 0 0 19 247 44 6 12 554
$53,619,983 $41,012,650 $8,267,333 31 $4,340,000 0 $0 0 $0 $23,699,060 $3,742,101 $4,327,825 $29,629,090 $2,783,718 $117,801,777
175 130 45 0 0 0 7 231 31 4 8 456
0 0 0
21 0 115
$48,238,246 $38,737,979 $6,591,067 $2,909,200 $0 $8,292,000 $21,048,875 $3,125,188 $6,862,494 $13,360,567 $1,339,704 $102,267,073
TOTAL Total Housing Starts Single Family Twin Home Row / Town House Duplex Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Total
8/1/2017
487 403 72 12 0 19 53 833 291 22 202 1,907
$96,124,078 500 $84,932,378 362 $9,799,700 74 12 $1,392,000 25 0 $0 0 703 $46,640,999 26 $63,390,487 65 $12,482,850 922 $42,816,909 271 $13,865,084 42 $18,215,563 269 $293,535,970 2,095
$104,980,024 611 $85,433,099 408 $11,206,925 112 64 $8,340,000 59 0 $0 0 916 $72,598,000 14 $245,201,012 56 $15,033,791 1044 $83,380,355 267 $93,096,542 27 $15,123,061 197 $629,412,785 2,216
$129,627,085 571 $99,490,265 437 $18,103,490 60 91 $12,033,330 27 0 $0 12 416 $37,156,720 10 $45,632,703 56 $14,665,241 1160 $58,253,665 274 $121,070,391 30 $10,091,721 233 $416,497,526 2,334
$135,719,785 430 $110,054,180 361 $12,131,933 65 50 $9,933,672 4 24 $3,600,000 0 262 $23,727,655 8 $60,378,141 44 $17,362,695 1101 $84,402,251 271 $67,195,526 11 $17,877,995 187 $406,664,048 2,052
No assurance is provided on this report. Permit information reported here may have changed. For the most current permit information, please contact the individual cities.
44 5 533
$113,151,755 $92,876,145 $13,123,810 $6,431,800 $720,000 $41,707,755 $102,891,046 $15,199,137 $62,166,766 $62,162,976 $14,674,058 $411,953,494
Home Builders Association of Fargo-Moorhead Outlying Communities Building Permit Report 2017 - Year-to-Date (June) 2016 BARNESVILLE, MN Total Housing Starts Single Family Twin Home Row/Town House Duplex Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Total
Permits
Units
2017 $304,000 $304,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $96,000 $207,948 $7,545 $0 $12,508 $628,001
2 2 0 0 0 0 1 10 1 2 0 16
$459,000 $459,000 $0 0 $0 0 $0 0 $0 $140,434 $198,116 $95,000 $23,359,647 $0 $24,252,197
KINDRED, ND Total Housing Starts Single Family Twin Home Row/Town House Duplex Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Total
1 1 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 6
$180,000 $180,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1,800 $0 $0 $190,600 $372,400
1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 4
$220,000 $220,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $10,000 $0 $0 $137,000 $367,000
MAPLETON, ND Total Housing Starts Single Family Twin Home Row/Town House Duplex Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Total
15 9 6 0 0 0 1 9 1 0 0 26
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $204,036 $75,000 $0 $0 $279,036
18 17 1 0 0 0 2 13 5 0 16 54
$6,036,435 $5,636,435 $400,000 0 $0 0 $0 0 $0 $465,000 $343,031 $733,641 $0 $175,300 $7,753,407
OXBOW, ND Total Housing Starts Single Family Twin Home Row/Town House Duplex Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Total
6 6 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 7
TOTAL Total Housing Starts Single Family Twin Home Row/Town House Duplex Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Total
33 27 6 0 0 0 4 72 9 1 28 147
6 6 0 0 0 0 0 27 5 0 18 56
$1,575,000 $1,575,000 $0 0 $0 0 $0 0 $0 $0 $373,800 $60,500 $0 $127,591 $2,136,891
1 1 0 0 0 0 1 24 2 0 10 38
CASSELTON, ND Total Housing Starts Single Family Twin Home Row/Town House Duplex Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Total
1 1 0 0 0 0 1 22 2 1 3 30
$311,000 $311,000 $0 0 $0 0 $0 0 $0 $50,000 $273,715 $52,000 $1,470,600 $52,000 $2,209,315
HARWOOD, ND Total Housing Starts Single Family Twin Home Row/Town House Duplex Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Total
1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3 5
HORACE, ND Total Housing Starts Single Family Twin Home Row/Town House Duplex Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Total
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 1 0 0 5
7/21/2017
0 0 0
0 0 0
2016 HAWLEY, MN Total Housing Starts Single Family Twin Home Row/Town House Duplex Multi-Family New Commercial Residential Remodel Commercial Remodel Public Miscellaneous Total
Value Permits
Units
0 0 0
0 0 0
Value
Permits
Units
3 3 0 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 4 12
No assurance is provided on this report. Permit information reported here may have changed. For the most current permit information, please contact the individual cities.
2017 Value Permits
$800,000 $800,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $615,333 $11,100 $0 $0 $20,900 $1,447,333
2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 13
$167,000 $167,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $458,200 $0 $0 $0 $625,200
4 4 0 0 0 0 2 3 1 0 0 10
$2,926,743 $2,245,743 $681,000 $0 $0 $0 $650,000 $102,546 $30,670 $0 $0 $3,709,959
24 20 4 0 0 0 0 11 2 0 0 37
$4,622,000 $4,622,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1,300,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $5,922,000
10 10 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 11
$10,581,743 $9,900,743 $681,000 0 $0 0 $0 0 $0 $2,615,333 $1,425,197 $218,170 $1,470,600 $391,091 $16,702,134
62 57 5 0 0 0 6 63 11 2 39 183
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
Units
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
Value
$540,000 $540,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1,781,200 $2,321,200
$1,240,000 $1,240,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $345,000 $9,798 $15,000 $0 $0 $1,609,798
$6,045,480 $5,187,480 $858,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $63,650 $4,000 $0 $0 $6,113,130
$8,855,303 $8,855,303 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $352,000 $0 $0 $0 $9,207,303
$23,700,218 $22,442,218 $1,258,000 0 $0 0 $0 0 $0 $1,046,434 $1,184,543 $855,186 $23,359,647 $2,106,008 $52,252,036