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CONTENTS AUGUST 2014 5
From The Publisher
7 Page 7: Horses to Watch
Every day page updates with a live “BUZZ� play in-today. Bookmark!
8 The Teaser
Topics that titillate the racing mind.
12 Cover Story:
Hambletonian 2014
Heyden, Warkentin & Horowitz check in from the Big M with picks.
17 Ron Burke:
Strength in Numbers We profile the "Todd Pletcher of Harness Racing," while our Back To Night School feature links to Burke's radio appearance in class with Casse, Catalano et al "Developing Young Horses."
21 Questions for Caton
Renowned handicapper Caton Bredar takes your Qs each issue!
24 Arlington Million Preview
Spencer spotlights the drama that has become a Million mainstay.
29 Travers Preview
Nadeau shows what floats in the Midsummer Derby at the Spa.
34 Get Ready for Remington
Shottenkirk previews the chat season at OKC's re-rising racetrack.
39 Trial By Fire
Perkins gets you set for winning trends in the All American trials.
45 Commentary: PETA-
Asmussen from different angle
Plonk expounds on the hot topic.
51 August Calendar
Stakes, key dates, Race of Month
57 BRIS Handicapping Hints 59 Galloping Out
Del Mar's devilishy tough opening.
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From the Publisher Racing’s big months annually are April, May, August and October. Most of the sport’s important races fall into those four flips of the calendar. And while there’s no denying the Triple Crown’s importance, you sure don’t mind looking at the August lineup of big races and smiling at the wagering prospects. We open with the Hambletonian at The Meadowlands for the harness set and the Whitney at Saratoga for the Thoroughbreds. Over the course of August, add in the Arlington Million, Travers, and Pacific Classic on the west coast, and you can see why August can be so hot for racing fans. These events harken back to the days when technology and betting competition didn’t compete with on-track attendance. Fans will be elbow-to-elbow this month for the Hambo, Million and Travers. On the pages to come, we’ll fight for space and set up all of those scenes for horseplayers.
- JP
Horse Player NOW Magazine Copyright 2014 Horse Player NOW All Rights Reseved
Editor, Publisher, Designer Jeremy Plonk Contributing Writers Caton Bredar Jerry Shottenkirk Brian Nadeau Brian W. Spencer Jen Perkins Ken Warkentin Bob Heyden Justin Horowitz Ed DeRosa Photography Chief Enzina Mastrippolito (Photosbyz) Contributing Photographers Adam Coglianese / NYRA Michael Lisa / Meadowlands Dustin Orona / Remington Park
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7/17/14 1:01 PM
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We update this page of the digital magazine every racing day–keep coming back! Each day’s play derived directly from that day’s official…
FRIDAY, AUGUST 15, 2014 Race 1 - Del Mar #7 Curlin Iron (8-1) *** Our Eyes: This 3yo was entered in a maiden claiming $20K earlier in the meet but was scratched when he drew the No. 1 post. Now he draws the outside and trainer Bill Spawr is a surprising 2-for-5 with first -timers at Del Mar the last three years. – Jeff Nahil Jeff's Playbook: 2 units to win, 3 units to place. OUR EYES. YOUR PRIZE. Full Report $10 daily ($15 Sat.) Subscriptions $49.95 /month … AND $100 / 3 months
BUY TODAY
THE TEASER:
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From Tammy ‘Fox’ Wynette to real sour juice Teaser, definition: A male horse used at breeding farms to determine whether to Pulp Fiction, a mare is ready to receive a stallion. Also, perhaps the eventually it will most unfulfilling occupation in the universe. all make sense. Stand By Your Man Teaser’s got to hand it to Tammy Fox, life partner of trainer Dale Romans, for standing by her man when he and Ed Musselman, publisher of the Indian Charlie newsletter, began trading blows on the Churchill Downs backside. According to published reports, Fox and Romans were heading toward the racetrack when they encountered Musselman, who recently had written a bitingly satirical Indian Charlie column about Romans. The two men exchanged ‘unpleasantries’ before Musselman reportedly took a swing at Romans. Musselman later said he lashed out
first because he feared Romans and Fox were about to jump him. Fox, who stands about four feet tall and spotted combatants at least a foot in height and over 100 pounds each on the official scale of weights, joined the fracas in defense of Romans. When the backside dust had cleared, as the aggressor in the altercation, Musselman was suspended 30 days and is required to attend anger management counseling; Romans was exonerated for protecting himself and Fox was handed a 15day ban, including anger management counseling. Teaser hopes Tammy at least got her money’s/time’s worth. And, if you
ever wind up in a foxhole, Tammy’s the one ‘Fox’ you’d want watching your back.
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Chatterpaul is a native of Guyana and once won the G1 Manhattan Handicap with 21-1 longshot Mission Approved, a horse he had claimed a year earlier for $35,000. According to the DRF.com article, over a two-year period from February 2012 through January 2014, Chatterpaul had four violations involving two medications: Clenbuterol, a bronchodilator, and Flunixin, a non-steroidal antiinflamatory (also known as Banamine). One of the runners won, the others were fourth (twice) and fifth. All four runners have been disqualified and ruled unplaced in the order of finish.
Cheaters Don’t Always Prosper According to a story at DRF.com, trainer Naipaul Chatterpaul was suspended 60 days and fined $5,000 by the New York State Gaming Commission due to four medication violations. An additional 120-day suspension was stayed for two years beginning Sept. 15 provided Chatterpaul does not accrue any additional equine violations for which If Chatterpaul was trying to ‘level he is found responsible. the playing field’ or to ‘take an edge’ in the medication arms race, he Say what? pretty much missed the point. It doesn’t count if you juice, get caught Teaser’s all for cleaning up illegal and don’t cash at better than a 9% drug use in Thoroughbred racing, rate. He ought to be made to serve but Naipaul Chatterpaul? Juicing? an extra 60-day suspension on Really? principle alone. According to Equibase, in the past 7 years, Chatterpaul-trained horses have made a total of 774 starts with 67 firsts, 95 seconds and 98 thirds for earnings of $2.9 million…or, in other words, the equivalent of a horrible month for Todd Pletcher.
Everyone Outta the Pool! Maybe In an effort to make the world safe for democracy…or in pursuit of some other vague, noble goal, the California Horse Racing Board spanked advance deposit wagering operators Twin Spires and Xpressbet for coordinating Players’ Pools—
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where ADW account holders pool money in an effort to collectively take down large wagers such as the pick six. The CHRB originally had notified two of the three largest ADW operators that the practice was illegal according to California racing law…and it appears as if that’s still the case. However, the CHRB recently stated publicly that they would not be prosecuting individual players for violating the statute. The convoluted messaging caused Teaser to experience a Pulp Fiction moment:
Jules: So, tell me again about Players’ Pools?
Vincent: Okay, what you wanna know?
Jules: Players’ Pools is legal there in California, right?
Vincent: Yeah, it's legal, but it ain't a
hundred-percent legal. I mean, you can't just log into an ADW, pool your
money and start betting away. You're only supposed to bet at the track or in certain designated places.
Jules: And those are OTBs? Vincent: Yeah. It breaks down like
this: It's legal to pool it, it's legal to bet it, and, if you're the proprietor of a racetrack, it's legal to accept it. It's still illegal to do it with an ADW, but that doesn't really matter, 'cause... get a load of this: If you get stopped by the cops in California, it's illegal for them to prosecute you. I mean, that's a right the cops in California don't have.
Jules: [laughing] I'm going, that's all there is to it, I'm freaking going.
Vincent: Yeah baby, you'd dig it the most.
-HPN
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Horse Player NOW Magazine has called upon three of Meadowlands’ leading handicappers to provide insight into the Aug. 2 Hambletonian and its superb supporting undercard. “Hollywood” Bob Heyden, Ken Warkentin and Justin Horowitz provide their analysis of the Hambo, Hambletonian Oaks and the John Cashman Memorial. Can anyone outrun Father Patrick?
TRIXTON
NUNCIO
HARPER BLUE CHIP
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HAMBLETONIAN RACE ANALYSIS by Bob Heyden
10. Father Patrick
Father Patrick becomes the first horse ever to win the Hambletonian at the Meadowlands from post 10, the first for Yannick Gingras, the third for Jimmy Takter and the 16th in a row for Father Patrick overall. He is a wonderful colt, the most versatile of this group, and the outer post may actually benefit as the inside pretenders now can only flex their muscles early. Sire Cantab Hall didn’t have the best of luck in the 2004 Hambo final - he got caught behind a tiring Tom Ridge - his son can more than make up for it today in what will likely be THE FASTEST Hambo ever and the first sub 1:50 classic.
5. Nuncio
Nuncio has never been worse than second - EVER - yet is third choice. Campbell has no equal in the race’s history and knows the colt better than anyone. He’s primed and ready and his gate speed is key.
7. Trixton
Has the look of a ferocious colt, talented beyond belief, and has to be on every drivers mind every second of this race. But the Hambletonian is about positioning, speed and most importantly, what year you were born. Explosive Matter and Napoletano didn’t get to choose that either. For the first time ever in the history of million dollar races, which began in 1980 with Niatross, a trainer is about to go 1-2-3.
by Justin Horowitz
by Ken Warkentin
10. Father Patrick
10. Father Patrick
7. Trixton
7. Trixton
He has won 15 races in a row and that’s not by mistake. This colt is more than good enough to overcome the outside post position. Need further proof? Take a look at his win in the Stanley Dancer from post 9 where he made the lead in the opening quarter and still finished up strongly in 27 seconds. The best thing about the outside post is our price will be slightly more generous.
Whenever he’s avoided Father Patrick, he has been the next best looking trotter in the crop. Takter wants his first Hambletonian win as a driver and perhaps the post position advantage is the difference? I still think this horse is second best.
5. Nuncio
He’s matured tremendously this season under the tutelage of Takter. Campbell can now get his horse to relax behind horses, giving him more options. He’s the only horse to beat Father Patrick, but that was more than a year ago. I don’t know how much more improvement he has left, but he’ll need to show it if he is to beat the top two. That said, he rounds out the “Takter trifecta.”
The biggest standout since Muscle Hill has pretty much been idle since his Dan Patch Award winning freshman campaign. Aside from his undefeated season, 15-race winning streak and 1:50.2 world record, anyone who saw his final tune up qualifier simply can’t disagree with Jimmy Takter when he calls him the perfect trotter and the best he’s ever developed. There’s more than enough power and talent here to handle any adversity.
Obviously, if it wasn’t for Father Patrick this Muscle Hill colt would be the king of the hill. This big, growthy colt with a bright future is developing into a speedy, yet handy and imposing figure, dominating the NJSS Final and setting the Mohawk track record in the Goodtimes. Has a chance to make things interesting if his stellar stablemate gets roughed up and he gets a clear shot.
5. Nuncio
The Beal and Dancer runner-up completes one of the most formidable trios in Hambletonian history for Team Takter. Prepped perfectly with a 1:51.4 Reynolds division, six-time Hambletonian winner John Campbell has nursed him along, and if they mix it up enough, this improving son of Andover Hall could pick up the pieces.
Hambletonian Day handle has topped $7 million 15 consecutive years. High $2 win - $57 (Amigo Hall '03); Low $2 win - $2.20 (Mack Lobell '87). Highest $2 exacta - $462.40 ('11); Low $2 exacta - $4.60 ('87). Fastest fractions - 1/4 26.3 - 1/2 54.3 - 3/4 1:22.2 - Final 1:50.1
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JOHN CASHMAN MEMORIAL RACE ANALYSIS by Bob Heyden
1. Sebastian K
Will follow in the fine Swedish tradition already established in this race, most notably by Stig Johansson in 2002 with track record setting Victory Tilly (1:50.4) and bring home the Cashman trophy. The fastest trotter ever born, he’s selected post 1 in a race that saw a 1:50.1 winner in 2009 with Lucky Jim and a 1:50 elimination winner this year Archangel. Svanstedt hinted that another world record is not out of the question.
4. Archangel
Tries to become the second Yonkers Trot winner to later win the Cashman - Mack Lobell the only other. Now the fastest trotter ever on a mile track at 1:50 flat, Ron Burke’s ultra impressive outfit is now featuring powerhouse trotters as evidenced by two track records set in last week’s eliminations. His speed may force a world record mile.
9. Market Share
Was caught out from a tough post last year in this very race where speed ruled (Sevruga). Is this deja vu? or can he join Mack Lobell as the only Hambletonian winner to also take the Cashman? This field is over $17 million composite, and the barn has won this race prior with 2012 Horse of the Year Chapter Seven.
by Justin Horowitz
1. Sebastian K
He’s a sloppy track nose loss away from being undefeated in his eye-catching North American career. he has shown tremendous gate speed and the ability to cruise on the front end. There are some wise guys lining up to try and beat him now and I think that gives us a chance to steal a little bit of value. All hail King Sebastian and King Ake!
8. Intimidate
With the expected quick pace, this horse will possibly be double digit lengths behind early on. But he has shown an ability to close with a monster rally and if he can split the two favorites, you have a chance to spice up your exotic wagers.
4. Archangel
Fourth in the 2012 Hambletonian, Archangel has matured into the monster he hinted at during his 3-year-old season. Beautiful black son of Credit Winner, “Archie” set a world record in his elimination after being reunited with Gingras. He sat on the back of Sebastian K in his world record at Pocono before making a break. I expect Gingras to take it to Sebastian from “go” and turn this race into a sprint for home.
by Ken Warkentin
1. Sebastian K
The barefoot wonder has acclimated instantly to North American racing and has been super impressive with his amazing speed and acceleration. Racing consecutive weeks actually seems to have sharpened him, and under the right conditions we may see further history made by this monster. You know Ake Svanstedt isn’t going to get any breathers today, but when it comes down to sheer strength the Swedish import has the edge.
9. Market Share
Parked fifth as the beaten favorite in last year’s Cashman, the 2012 Hambletonian hero and two-time Dan Patch Award winner has turned a corner at the right time. The triple millionaire was also conservative right before he went down the road in the 2013 TVG FFA, and he’s a clutch performer with five wins, a second and third in seven races for $500,000 or more.
4. Archangel
After making breaks in two of his previous three it was a bit surprising to hear Yannick Gingras say he was sitting on a big mile. Nevertheless, Team Burke has a new world champion, who has come all the way back from stallion duty last year. He has seen the back of Sebastian K several times this season, and there’s no doubt he’s going to push off from an inside draw and make the favorite work for it.
John Campbell's Record 6 Hambletonian Driving Victories Mack Lobell (1987) Armbro Goal (1988) Harmonious (1990) Tagliabue (1995) Muscles Yankee (1998) Glidemaster (2006
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HAMBLETONIAN OAKS RACE ANALYSIS by Bob Heyden
11. Shake It Cerry
by Justin Horowitz
by Ken Warkentin
8. Heaven’s Door
1. Designed To Be
The runner-up in the 1:53.3 record Merrie Annabelle from 2013. She is sharper than her lines indicate and remember this is Hambo day, Muscle Massive’s PPs would not have bowled you over either going into the 2010 Hambo final. Yannick Gingras is primed for a really big day, 2 days before turning 35.
1. Designed To Be
11. Shake It Cerry
8. Heaven’s Door
11. Shake It Cerry
Yes we are looking at Jimmy Takter becoming just the second trainer to ever win both the Hambo and the Oaks in the same year (1988 Jan Johnson with Armbro Goal and Nans Catch). Not only was she clearly the best at 2, she hasn’t needed her best in her last few and is perfectly primed for Pierce’s fourth Oaks. The second tier is not an issue, especially in here where she can follow the rail early.
7. Lifetime Pursuit
Can leave the gate in a hurry. She’ll be forwardly placed all throughout in what figures to be a big day for Ake Svanstedt. This is more of a wide open year in the Hambo Oaks and keep in mind that prior to Bee A Magician’s 2013 romp, six straight favorites bit the dust in the Oaks. Trainer/driver winning the Oaks is rare nowadays, but it was early on when Glen Garnsey did both three times in the first four editions (1971, 1973, 1974).
With all the attention on the top two choices, don’t let this improving filly get away at what should be a nice price. If we learned anything this year at the Meadowlands, it’s don’t underestimate Ake Svanstedt horses in big spots. The talented, but previously unpredictable Muscle Hill daughter has shown much more maturity her last three starts and her respectable performance in the Del Miller makes her my best value play.
Her last two starts have not been truly run races and therefore, don’t fault her too much for getting beaten at short prices. The post draw gives her the tactical advantage that she hasn’t had in her last two races and she’s only been off the ticket once in 12 career starts.
The post draw did her no favors. She’s been clearly in the lead by the first quarter in each of her last five races, which will not happen today with her second tier starting position. Without being able to dictate the race dynamics, this filly will have to show a new dimension and I’ll try to beat her at what still should be a short price.
World champion at two and three has now had road trouble in her last two here, while Shake It Cerry has been allowed to steal away. Team Orange Crush has her on her toes for Libfeld and Katz. The White Knight set the stakes record of 1:51.4 with 2014 Horse of the Year Bee A Magician, and hopefully this talented filly will get a chance to prove her superiority today from the rail leading the Team Orange Crush trio.
Set a track record winning last year’s Merrie Annabelle enroute to division honors and has continued her dominant style for three-time Oaks winners Jimmy Takter and Ron Pierce. Obviously, she’s dangerous when in control of the pace, another Donato Hanover looms, yet logically the pressure figures to ramp up despite following 1-Designed To Be out of there.
8. Heaven’s Door
Broke her maiden in style with an impressive 1:52 wire-to-wire NJSS Final and was a solid runner-up with not much chance in the Del Miller. Relatively light in experience, and hasn’t raced in three weeks, yet you know Ake Svanstedt will have her ready to roll and forwardly placed. We clearly haven’t seen the best of this Muscle Hill filly.
Hambletonian Oaks Superlatives High $2 win - $122.80 (Working Gal '90). Low $2 win - $2.40 (Bee A Magician '13). Highest $2 exacta - $3198.60 ('82)
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RON BURKE: Strength in Numbers By Ken Warkentin When harness racing supertrainer Ron Burke declared his goal was to break his own staggering records again in 2014, very few could doubt him. In 2013, the 44-year-old from Pennsylvania, based in Cannonsburg, cruised to his third straight training title at the Meadowlands, and the massive Burke operation flew past the 5,000-wins mark and $100 million. Some call him the Todd Pletcher of harness racing. Burke is the leading trainer in the sport for the fifth straight year. Last year, Burke amassed 1,090 wins from 4,494 starts and $22,228,815 – all records. Just past the midway point of 2014, Burke was overseeing approximately 250 horses at six
different venues in four states, and had more than 500 wins and $10 million. In addition to the Big M, in 2013, Burke was also the leading money winner at all three tracks in his home state, The Meadows, Pocono Downs and Harrah’s Philadelphia, as well as Hoosier Park in Indiana and Yonkers Raceway in New York. Burke learned the business from his father, Mickey Burke, who originally had car dealerships and owned horses with other trainers at The Meadows, namely Dick, Doug and Dane Snyder. Mickey often helped out, learned the ropes and drove in his first race in his mid50s. Now in his late 70s, Mickey still is very much involved in training the stable’s youngsters. As Ron began helping his dad develop his stable in the early 1980s, he not only overcame his initial fear of horses, he discovered
he had a special rapport with them, particularly the bad actors. Ron, the horse whisperer, learned to love horses, grew to love racing, and his work would soon speak loud and clear at the sport’s major racetracks. The younger Burke also has a knack for absorbing detail and recall, and keeps track of everything utilizing today’s technology. Every year has been better than the year before, and for the Burkes, racing has been a family affair ever since they emerged and thrived with the advent of racinos.
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In 2014, double millionaire Sweet Lou started off the season as the hottest free for all pacer in the sport, dominating the TVG FFA Series and romping in major events like the Roll With Joe at Tioga Downs in 1:48.3, the Ben Franklin at Pocono Downs in a world record of 1:47 and the William Haughton Memorial in 1:47.1. Among Ron Burke’s record 15 Breeders Crown finalists last Fall, Foiled Again (pictured below), the sport’s first $6 million pacer, became the richest North Americabased harness horse in history and oldest to win a Crown event at age nine in 2013.
The ultimate warhorse capped last season with a dramatic tally in the TVG FFA Pace Final and is still going strong in 2014. Burke calls him the most consistent and hardest trying horse he’s ever trained. Clear Vision, Bettor’s Edge, Allstar Legend and Ultimate Beachboy are also among his dominant Open class battalion. This season, Burke has campaigned two of the hottest three-year-old pacers around in Art Rooney winner All Bets Off, and JK Endofanera, who gave Burke his first $1 million race win with a 12-1 upset in the North America Cup.
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at Mohawk and hit the board in six other major events in her class. On Meadowlands Pace Night 2014, the near-double millionaire Rocklamation rallied to a 12-1 upset from post nine in the Golden Girls with the mile of her life, 1:48.3, despite a month off. Add that veteran to a strong contingent of young stars like New Jersey Sires Stakes champion twoyear-old trotting filly Mission Brief, and the Burke Barn formula for unprecedented success is a slamdunk to continue well into the future.
Allstar Rating, Southwind Silence, Somestarsomewhere and At Press Time also are in his “glamor boy” three-year-old pacing colt division contingent. On the female side, and in a very competitive Open Pacing Mares division, Rocklamation kicked off her bid for top honors in 2013 with a 1:49.3 division of the Golden Girls after a huge rally. The consistent five-year-old by Rocknroll Hanover also closed from the clouds to win the Milton Final
LISTEN TO OUR RADIO ARCHIVE LESSON “DEVELOPING YOUNG HORSES” THAT FEATURED RON BURKE, MARK CASSE, WAYNE CATALANO & MORE IN JULY 2013 WEEK 19.
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COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL! TUESDAYS, 8:30 PM ET AUGUST 5 TELEVISION ANALYSTS
AUGUST 12 VISUAL HANDICAPPING
Learn from our pros with TV experience what to listen for and what to ignore with on-air commentary.
Live chat with top handicappers as we discuss during live racing video what your eyes should watch. AUGUST 19 TOTEBOARD CLUES The odds change every 90 seconds or sooner – what are you watching for and how can you capitalize? Find out!
AUGUST 26 WATCHING RACES CRITICALLY
LOOK AHEAD: SEPT 2 TRIP HANDICAPPING
Trip handicapping is about knowing how to pick apart a race from all angles. We tell you how in real-time.
The return of SiriusXM radio simulcasts with Steve Byk! Top players share their trip secrets and what to watch for.
CLICK FOR MORE
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Each issue, we’ll take your questions for Caton Bredar, Horse Player NOW analyst, Night School co-host and noted reporter for HRTV. WHAT’S YOUR FAVORITE THING ABOUT SARATOGA? There are so many, it's hard to pick! I have a special connection with Saratoga, even though I haven't spent a lot of time here myself. My Mom spent many of her summers growing up here when her father (my grandfather, Ted Atkinson) was riding. He led the standings at the Spa five times, so it's special for me in general. I also love the atmosphere--the fact that everyone in town is interested in racing and that it's a focal point in the newspapers and local news. Plus, it's a lot of fun to see big crowds at the races again, no matter what kind of weather. You have to love the opportunity to follow the 3-year-olds, some of the alums from the Triple Crown plus the new shooters from the Jim Dandy to the random allowance races, through the Travers. Also,
it's fun seeing the new 2-year-old stars. But as great as the racing and the atmosphere are, I have to say my favorite thing is getting up early, walking around Clare Court and Horse Haven, getting a cup of coffee and just sitting in the stands watching the horses go through morning workouts. With the big trees and the people lining the track apron, Mary Ryan describing the action over the P.A., you feel like you've stepped back into another era when racing was king. There is no other track in the country quite like Saratoga on an early August morning.
Pose your questions each week in Night School – or by emailing askcaton@horseplayernow.com!
WHICH 3-YEAR-OLD ARE YOU MOST INTERESTED IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE SEASON, AND WHICH HORSE IN GENERAL ARE YOU MOST EXCITED TO SEE RUN THIS SUMMER? While most people are waiting for California Chrome to come back (and I'm eager to see him, too) I'm pretty excited about some of the horses I think didn't get a shot to show what they were capable of. Shared Belief, of course, is intriguing and may well turn out to be the best of the best. As for horses in general, no question, I'm hoping to see Wise Dan make a successful return to the races. Not just because it's the rare opportunity to see a two-time Horse of the Year, but after all he's been through with emergency colic surgery, just to see him back at the track at all is amazing. It’s a testament not only to his amazing courage, but also the great job Charlie Lopresti and all the people around him have done keeping him healthy, nursing him back and generally developing and caring for one of the great horses of our
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generation. If he makes it back to race at all, it'll be one of the great stories of the year. HAMBO OR HASKELL? Tough call, and why choose when you can do both? New Jersey has one of the rare doubleheaders— cross-breed, cross-state classics generally over the course of a weekend or two, but never on the same day. Both Monmouth and Meadowlands are exceptional for their respective events. Both offer tremendous supporting races around their marquee events. They are, respectively, among the two greatest days on the calendar for horseplayers and fans. It's been an honor to cover both great races over the course of my career in broadcasting, and I'd never want to have to choose between the two. And I will say, while I may have a greater familiarity with Thoroughbred racing, I generally do better gambling-wise on the Hambletonian! (Could be all the great harness racing experts that help me out at the Meadowlands!)
Follow me @CBredar.
Pose your questions each week in Night School – or by emailing askcaton@horseplayernow.com!
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the champion in one way. While Pennsylvania-bred Real Solution is 34 wins and more than $5.2 million dollars in earnings shy of the legendary John Henry, he will aim on August 16 to join John Henry as a two-time winner of the Arlington Million after earning top honors with an assist from the stewards last year.
MILLION-DOLLAR DRAMA By Brian W. Spencer John Henry's reputation as the quintessential iron horse from the 1980s will always be well deserved. A graded stakes winner at age 9, he started 83 times and returned to the winner's circle on 39 occasions while racking up earnings of more than $6.5 million. Though John Henry's place in racing lore is cemented, there exists a modern racehorse with a chance in the near future to equal
The Arlington Million, the centerpiece of the Illinois racing calendar, is always a classy and international affair that has proven to be a mostly formful event. For those who enjoy data-mining race histories in an attempt to uncover hidden trends, the Million does not offer many hard and fast angles. Running style has been no major indicator of success in the last decade: Running Style Front-Runner Midpack-Runner Closer
Wins 3 5 2
European invaders have won four of the last 10 runnings, yet for all of the talk about European
domination in American turf races, they have on occasion been forgotten at the windows, producing the two largest winning mutuels in the last ten years – Debussy returned $24.00 in 2010, and Spirit One paid $29.40 in 2008. While favorites have won just two of the last 10 runnings, that doesn't mean that the Million is a race in which to swing at big longshot prices. Mid-range runners have been the name of the game with an average win payout of $15.72 in the last decade, the real money has been there for the taking on those fourth-choice-at-7/1 kinds of runners we all love finding. As illustrated by the pricey European winners mentioned above, there can be incredible
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value to be had on the “lesser” shippers from across the pond. The American betting public seems to have some trouble separating a handful of Euros, so they gravitate towards the bigger names, leaving the less-heralded runners at attractive prices on the board. What's the best way to find that Euro who may be sitting on something good despite appearing a bit of a secondstringer? Use social media to your advantage and read everything you can from those on-site regarding morning jogs, physical appearances and energy levels from the shippers – it worked with Debussy and has been an invaluable supplement to handicapping over the last few years.
Even though the wagering side of the Arlington Million hasn't created much drama or too many surprises over the years, the race itself has had several dramatic performances in recent editions. Here's a rundown, with video links, of four of the most high-drama moments in recent Arlington Millions. 4. 2008 – Johnny-in-the-spot!
(Click videos to watch) 6/5 race favorite Archipenko worked out a great, ground-saving trip just behind leader and eventual winner Spirit One and appeared to have run turning for home. Unfortunately, Johnny Murtagh aboard the one-paced Mount Nelson was committed to keeping the chalk pinned in on the fence, costing the choice any chance of catching the gate-to-wire winner.
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After the race, Archipenko's rider Kevin Shea said, “Johnny had me trapped in all the way around, and when it was time to go I begged him to let me go and he wouldn't let me through.” Conditioner Mike de Kock was equally displeased. “There was no need for Johnny to keep us in like that.” 3. 2013 – Hold All Tickets!
Real Solution was elevated to the top spot after The Apache was disqualified for interference in the stretch. The Apache hit the top before drifting out about five paths under left-handed urging from Christophe Soumillon, bumping Real Solution. In a call that could have gone either way, trainer Mike de Kock once again had to settle for a well-meant charge finishing second.
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2. 2010 – Buick’s Inside Pass
1. 2004 – Power Drained
Debussy's dream trip nearly went bad. After securing a great spot racing more or less in the pocket, Debussy was caught behind tiring forward players General Quarters and Quite a Handful who were both backing up.
Powerscourt moved wide on the far turn to power to the front in the stretch, but lugged in badly under heavy right-handed whipping from rider Jamie Spencer, bothering both Epalo and Kicken Kris, whose rider Kent Desormeaux nearly flew out of the saddle in anger as his mount crossed the wire. His mood surely changed for the better after the winner was disqualified, elevating Kicken Kris to the top spot. Powerscourt was the second consecutive Million winner to be disqualified after Storming Home spooked and dumped Gary Stevens just before the wire in 2003, but he would exact some revenge the following year with an easy threelength score in the 2005 Million.
When he finally got room to stretch his legs just outside of the eighth pole, he had already given away first run to 4-5 favorite Gio Ponti. Looking like an underneath threat at best outside the sixteenth pole, he produced a flashy turn of foot under William Buick inside the final pole to post an 11-1 upset.
GET MORE AP 'CAPPING HELP ON PAGE 57 WITH BRIS HANDICAPPING HINTS!
- HPN
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The Travers. The Midsummer Derby. A grueling 1 ¼ miles over the Saratoga main track. Long known as the fourth leg of the Triple Crown, it’s arguably every bit as coveted as the Preakness and the Belmont Stakes on any trainer and owner’s laundry list. Long on history, the Travers is the centerpiece of a Saratoga meet that is full of centerpieces. Run for the 145th time August 23, the race is sure to draw an all-star cast of 3-year-olds that will look to use a win as a stepping-stone to greater glory against older horses in the fall. So what has worked in the past and what hasn’t? And who are the main contenders? Let’s take a look.
How to Get There Over the last 20 years, Travers winners have traveled many different paths to get to the winner’s circle in Saratoga’s most prestigious race, but what final prep has been the most used springboard to victory? While Monmouth Park’s prestigious Haskell offers a purse of $1 million and a shot at a Grade 1, the local prep, the Jim Dandy, has proven the most-used and most-successful launching pad to a Travers win. Jim Dandy Haskell Swaps Belmont Other
11 4 4 1 1
21 preps due to dead-heat in 2012.
As the graphic attests, it’s pretty obvious that the best path to a Travers win is a race over the track, which should come as no surprise to anyone, but is also worth remembering as the race draws near. Often times the Haskell winner will get all the publicity, and rightfully so, to a certain extent,
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Wicked Strong (7) outkicked Tonalist (4) but you have to go back to Point Given in 2001 to in the Jim Dandy last month. Click to watch. find the last horse to pull off the developing 3-year-old who sat out Haskell-Travers double. Taking it a the Triple Crown or quite possibly step further, since Point Given’s came to hand towards the end of it double, Haskell winners are 0-for-6 (think Will’s Way and Flower Alley). in the Travers and horses exiting Favorites have won just eight times the race are just 1-for-20, with in the past 20 years and it’s a bit Summer Bird in 2009 the only more dramatic when you consider horse who ran in the Haskell that that the sample started with Holy came back to win the Travers. Bull and Thunder Gulch winning as the chalk and with Alpha in there Betting Trends as well, even though he was a The chalk hasn’t exactly had an dead-heat winner. However, if the easy go it either, over the past 20 exotics are for you, then sadly years. While it’s always good to be you’re going to need the favorite to the top man on the totem pole, the cash a ticket, as the chalk has been Travers is often ripe for that late-
out of the money just four times in the past 20 years. The good news is that there have been several mid-priced winners of the race, as the average mutuel price of the Travers winner has been $9, so it’s tough to scoff at a 7-2, especially when you consider we’re usually dealing with a field of seven or eight horses. And don’t forget, we started the sample with Holy Bull ($3.60) and Thunder Gulch ($3.50). Toss them and things rise up to $9.58 over the past 18 renewals. Running Style The novice tends to think closers will do well in a 1 ¼-mile race but that’s a very tricky assumption in the Travers, for several different reasons. First and foremost, the Travers usually has a relatively compact and select field, meaning you won’t get the hell-on-wheels pace of the Kentucky Derby. Second, the Saratoga main track isn’t exactly a good spot for closers, especially going two turns.
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If you’re without tactical speed then you run the risk of leaving yourself way too much to do off the far turn, with likely some salty 3-year-olds in front of you to run down. So, it’s no surprise that just 5-of-21 recent winners (remember the dead-heat of 2012) have been closers. Conversely, only Medaglia d’Oro (2002) and Bernardini (2006) were wire-to-wire winners, and considering they were both oddson and overwhelming choices, it’s easy to see that you’ve got your work cut out for you if you want to lead every step of the way in the Travers. So, without holding you in suspense for that much longer, it’s quite obvious that tactical speed wins the Travers. No fewer than 14 of the past 21 winners either pressed or stalked the pace from close range before making their winning move. Simply put, if you want to win the Travers, you better be able to stay within 5 lengths of the leaders early or run the risk of leaving yourself with too much to do late.
Odds and Ends It’s worth noting that while the Jim Dandy, Haskell and Swaps (formerly run at Hollywood Park and now run as the Los Alamitos Derby) have been the most popular prep races, there have been two horses to buck the trend--Birdstone (2004) and Golden Ticket (2012). Nick Zito hardly needs to validate his Hall of Fame resume, but his work with Birdstone in 2004 was spectacular, as the ‘little horse that could’ entered the Travers off a layoff of 84 days, having not run since winning the Belmont Stakes. As for Golden Ticket, his case is even more remarkable, as he entered having not run in 112 days, in a Churchill Downs optional-claimer, no less. Credit to Kenny McPeek; that’s one heck of an accomplishment. Another nugget you might want to consider, and one that might be a bit surprising, is that a horse does
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not have to win his Travers prep, as 11 of the past 21 Travers winners won their final prep (I use the term loosely because the Haskell is hardly a prep). It’s hardly an end-all be-all stat, but it’s something to think about and quite possibly a link to why favorites haven’t had great success in the Travers. Another thing to consider – the Jim Dandy winner hasn’t exactly been a surefire thing in the Travers, as the ledger sits at 6 winners and 5 losers out of the local prep. Stats and trends aren’t going to guarantee you success in the Travers, but the above, if nothing else, gives you a good look at the summer’s most anticipated race. What you do with them is up to you, but they’ll be at the top of my handicapping list when I delve into those PPs the week of the race.
– HPN
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By Jerry Shottenkirk We see it every year in the Horse Player NOW Remington Park chats – the change of seasons. In Oklahoma City, Okla., the changes can be abrupt and all during one race meeting. Remington Park begins its Fall Thoroughbred campaign August 15 and continues through December 14. That’s a tale of two seasons. Temperatures when the meet begins can be in the 100s, and by mid-December can be in the 30s. It’s part of the charm and challenge of handicapping this risen-from-the-ashes track that premiered to the world on Sept. 1, 1988.
Also with the 2014 meet, the Remington Park chats are back, dubbed “Night School Friday Night Live.” I have hosted Friday night special gatherings of online chatters, and they’ve read my views and have taken in various comments from HPN founder Jeremy Plonk and Remington Park announcer Dale Day, all while tossing in their own two cents.
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2-year-old Triple $75k Kip Deville – Sept. 28 $100k Clever Trevor – Nov. 7 $250k Springboard – Dec. 14
Caleb’s Posse (above) and Alsvid (left) are just two of the recent-past’s rising two-year-olds to launch from Remington Park.
The centerpiece of the season comes on Oklahoma Derby Day, September 28 – one of the few Sundays on the schedule, which usually includes a weekly run from Wednesday through Saturday. Presented along with the $400,000 Grade 3 Oklahoma Derby will be the $200,000 Remington Park Oaks, the $150,000 Remington Park Sprint Cup, the $100,000 Remington Green Stakes, the $75,000 Kip Deville Stakes, the $50,000 Flashy Lady Stakes and the $50,000 Ladies on the Lawn Stakes. That would be a whopper of a card anywhere. Despite the extreme changes in weather, Remington’s back story is one that has casino wagering as an important character. Remington’s first few years were highly successful, but business tailed off in a big way, mostly around the turn of the century/millennium. It had lost its luster to many, and purses had dropped to a little more than $40,000 per day. More than 10 years later, it’s going great guns. The addition of a casino and millions in updates by current owner Global Gaming RP gave the
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horse racing and breeding industry hope, and today it’s a reality as purses have jumped to more than $200,000 per day. And with those purses come quality racing stock. So what’s the key to handicapping Remington Park? It’s in the numbers -- barns & fields. There have been some dominant outfits and jockeys in the history of the track – some who were here at the start and still have stable representation here. Meanwhile, some of the more successful stables have not been here long, but didn’t take long to join the ranks of connections to watch. What makes Remington Park different from tracks on its level is the number of starters per race. Like every track, it has some short fields, but most are attractive to bettors because of those sheer numbers. Large-sized fields are magnets for those who like to play the horizontals. Payoffs for Pick 3s and Picks 4s are usually nice and fat. Even the most formful exactas and trifectas aren’t as chalky as in most other places, simply because
of the number of participants per race. That’s attractive when it comes to the rolling Pick 3s and the Primetime Pick 4, which is the last four races of the card. Connections, Connections, Connections There are several outfits that dominate – some we’ve known for a long, long time and some we’ve known for a few years. Trainer Steve Asmussen is the reigning champion trainer. He has won the local meet title 7 straight times, but there is enough successful competition on the backstretch that it’s not as if his horses are odds-on each time. Donnie K. Von Hemel is the track’s all-time leader. He has garnered 946 wins and is well ahead of Asmussen, who has won 633 races locally. Von Hemel’s name will show up repeatedly during the stakes schedule, which includes 35 events and purses of more than $3.5 million. There are plenty of powerful stables to provide serious competition.
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Robertino Diodoro, whose horses have been buzz saws in Canada and Arizona, and have been muchrespected in California, brings a stable for the meet for the first time. He won last year’s Oklahoma Derby with Broadway Empire. Bret Calhoun, Roger Engel, J.R. Caldwell, Chris Hartman and Randy Morse bring many horses than can beat you, and Karl Broberg is back after some time away from the local track. Hall of Famer Jack Van Berg had some success at Lone Star Park and has moved his stable to Oklahoma City. They’ll all have to bring their best if they want to beat most of the horses that come out of the Federico Villafranco stable, which has been powerful at Oaklawn and Prairie Meadows. Villafranco trains for Danny Caldwell, who has won four consecutive owner titles. Caldwell’s stable reps won 29 races last season. Remington also has a good group in the jocks’ room. Cliff Berry is the track’s all-time leader and is a single win away from 2,000 locally. Luis Quinonez is no stranger to the
local winner’s circle, having won 1,161 races. Ramon Vazquez is the defending champion jockey. He won 64 races, many for Asmussen and Villafranco. Quinonez, Berry and Alex Birzer will provide the strongest competition to Vazquez. Around the Ovals Remington has a one-mile main track and a seven-furlong turf course with a chute. While it can change from day to day, speed can be very dangerous on the main track and in the shorter turf races, while closers are more effective in
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turf races beyond five furlongs. Remington rarely has track surface issues. Breakdowns are minimal and the main track is normally fairplaying. The turf course also is kept in good shape and has minimal workouts over the green. The portable turf rail is moved in or out as needed. Remington’s racing product is the best of the night-time tracks on many weekdays, and has good betting participation from other points of call. Remington also has been a popular spot for online chatters. The chats can be accessed through the HPN and RP websites. Fans who appreciate free live streaming video can get it each racing day, via Remingtonpark.com. The ThoroEnduro free online handicapping contest, with $9k in prize money, begins Aug. 23 and runs through Dec. 14. - HPN
IN YOU’RE
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TRIAL BY FIRE Handicapping Trials for the All American Futurity By Jen Perkins
Imagine if all horses nominated to the Kentucky Derby competed against each other in races at Churchill Downs in April, and only the fastest horses qualified for the final run for the roses. In Quarter Horse racing, this is exactly how the field is determined for the richest race of the sport, the prestigious Grade 1 All American Futurity at Ruidoso Downs. This year, two days of trials for the All American Futurity will be held on August 14-15th, and the top five fastest from each day will continue to the final. Trials have been contested for the All American since its inception in 1959. In the first year of the race, 28 entries competed in three trials, and in the following year, the number had dipped to only two trials of nine horses each. As the purse grew over the years, so did the number of nominations, reaching a record number of 252 horses entered in 26 trials in 2011. As any good handicapper knows, one key to handicapping Quarter Horse stakes races is to watch the qualifiers in their trials. Time trials are dress rehearsals for the final, allowing horses to race at the same distance over the same surface, against some of their potential competition. Tackle the 2014 All American Futurity trials with this game plan:
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Do: Watch and wager on the trials. Jump start your All American handicapping by viewing the trials live, and add the fun of watching the qualifier list unfold throughout the day. Last year, the two days of trials at Ruidoso handled over $1.5 million, so there is plenty of money in the pools and enough unpredictability to bring big prices. Follow all the action with free live streaming video through QRacingVideo.com. Don’t: Forget to look at pedigrees. Some horses never run well at 440 yards, let alone as a two-year-old. A horse whose sire, dam, or dam’s sire was an All American Futurity winner suggests that the potential for All American Futurity success may be in her genes. Do: Know the leading horses in the sport. Review the AQHAHorseplayernow.com poll and glance through the results of some of this year’s graded stakes. Don’t: Ignore company lines. Now that you know who the key horses are, scan the past performances of the entries in each trial to spot a horse that ran against a more talented horse in the past but now faces easier company. 2013 All American Futurity Trial Wins by Post Position Post Post Post Post Post
1: 2: 3: 4: 5:
1 3 4 1 2
Post Post Post Post Post
6: 0 7: 4 8: 5 9: 2 10: 6
Do: Use horses from the inside and outside posts. In a field of two-yearolds with varying levels of maturity and experience, an inside or outside post greatly reduces the chance of a troubled trip. In a 440 yard race, there may be enough time for a good horse to potentially overcome interference by running wide. Don’t: Assume boys have an advantage. Many fillies mature faster than colts, and it is not unusual for the girls to outrun the boys. Fillies won 25%
of the trials in 2013, and in the last 20 years, six winners of the All American Futurity were fillies.
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Do: Understand the system. All American hopefuls are nominated as weanlings, followed by a series of sustaining payments and entry fees. If a horse skips this process, they can still join the trial fields with a $50,000 supplement fee. A horse that has been supplemented deserves consideration. Don’t: Dismiss horses with experience. Remember that connections have been paying into the trials since before the horses were in training, and horses of all abilities compete in the trials. Horses that have run well in previous races have a slight advantage in All American trials. Horse
AAF Trial
Notable Performances
Houdini
1st
1st Rainbow Derby (G1), 2nd Texas Classic Futurity (G1)
Kates Dynasty
1st
1st Texas Classic Futurity (G1), 6th Rainbow Derby (G1)
Hes Relentless
1st
3rd Rainbow Derby (G1), 7th All American Futurity (G1)
One Valiant Hero
2nd
2nd Ruidoso Derby (G1), 2nd Bob Moore Memorial (G2)
This Dude Can Fly
2nd
1st Heritage Place Derby (G2), 8th Rainbow Derby (G1)
Her O Don Won
3rd
2nd Rainbow Derby (G1)
Rock You
3rd
1st Ruidoso Derby (G1), 1st Bob Moore Memorial (G2)
Viva Mi Corazon
6th
1st Los Al Winter Derby (G1), 2nd Los Al 2 Million Futurity (G1)
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Do: File trial information for later. Note what the winner of a trial does later in its career, and consider betting back the otherwise unknown horses that ran behind him. A horse that ran fourth in a trial may not look impressive until you realize that the trial winner later won a graded event. Do: Play the connections. Gone are the days when a single trainer or jockey sweeps a majority of the trials, but hot trainers and jockeys will emerge throughout the day. If a trainer and jockey team up to bring in several winners early, ignore their future entries at your own risk. 2013 All American Futurity Trial Wins by Trainer/Jockey Combinations Blane Wood / Ricky Ramirez (5) Michael Joiner / G.R. Carter, Jr (4) Juan Gonzalez / Jaime Leos (2) Paul Jones / Cody Jensen (2) Luis Villafranco / Cody Jensen (2) Eddie Willis / David Pinon (2) Eddie Willis / Jimmy Brooks (2) Whatever your angle, don’t forget to have fun and enjoy watching the current and future two-year-old stars of Quarter Horse racing as they compete for a coveted spot in the gate and a place in the history books in the $2,700,000 2014 All American Futurity. Jen Perkins is a member of the Racing Aces fan education program from the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA). She completed the Race Track Industry Program at the University of Arizona and has been involved in Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing as an owner, breeder and handicapper for over 20 years.
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COMMENTARY
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ASMUSSEN-PETA CONTROVERSY FROM A DIFFERENT ANGLE By Jeremy Plonk The dust-up between PETA and Steve Asmussen, which became big news in Spring 2014, could have turned out to be racing‟s Waterloo in its war on drugs. Instead, it turned out to be little more than water cooler discussion, where racing folk / mainstreamers alike had something to wet their whistle, but little to digest. The bombshell could have rocked racing‟s culture. Allegations that Asmussen and assistant Scott Blasi ran an operation that mistreated animals put not only their personal careers on the precipice of extinction, but placed anyone who
enjoys the sport, or makes a living in and around it, in harm‟s way of something major. Recently the story turned full circle when Asmussen welcomed Blasi back as his right-hand man in the barn. The boss “relieved” Blasi of his duties in late March after the foul-mouthed sidekick was the subject of most of the PETA sting operation edited and released via Youtube. After four months apart, the two long-time barnmates were reunited at Saratoga and the public was left with a twofold reaction.
“Business as usual,” declared one side of the war on drugs, which had hoped this was the smoking gun or Jose Canseco Juiced moment, the book that helped destroy baseball‟s problems with performance enhancing drugs. “It‟s about time,” declared another side of the public that looked at the story from the perspective that PETA‟s mission against racing is such a vendetta that the edited video offered nothing to trust or adjudicate. Like most things, the PETA vs. Asmussen situation likely isn’t black or white, but rather shades of gray. Our society, since the O.J. Simpson case first became a courtroom TV miniseries in the mid-1990s, has been one to demand a smoking gun. Popular fictional series like “CSI” dominate television, and we demand – right or wrong – that circumstantial cases involve some sort of DNA that confirms beyond a reasonable doubt.
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Asmussen and Blasi are free of most DNA when it comes to the PETA allegations. Not only did the video fail to catch them in an “Aha moment” with any illegal drugs, the PETA crowd went inexplicably silent during the Triple Crown series even as California Chrome lured a larger-than-usual audience for the sport. That‟s the kind of stage in which PETA, if it had even 13 seconds more footage worthy of release, would have produced 13 minutes more video to show all why the sport must be stopped and stopped now. It‟s also noteworthy that as of July 31, the original PETA video sits at 300,469 Youtube views. That sounds like a lot until you realize that something as inane as “Upside-Down Mascara: Does This Thing Really Work?” has 2.5 million views. If this story was as hot as first thought, and had “legs” as we say in the media business (despite a bad pun in this case), wouldn‟t there be even a few more mainstream hits on the video?
How many of those 300,469 views are racing people caught up in the story? I know my hits count there.
Coming Clean Personally – My Experiences Inside That Barn In honesty, I thought there was more to it upon my initial view of the Youtube video. While I may be an industry-type who earns my entire living and supports my family with horse racing-based ventures, I was first more disturbed by what was in the video than who edited it. Even with a loathe and distrust of PETA, my 20-plus professional years covering horse racing at the highest levels, and Asmussen‟s barn specifically since 1995, I did not make the racing-protective leap that what was being purported was totally unfathomable. As the daily notes writer at Remington Park from 1995-„98, I walked in Asmussen’s barn in Oklahoma City a few times per week. I had seen a culture of temper that was real. Some of the most vociferous workplace barrages had not been overheard, but rather observed while standing
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right next to Asmussen himself. But he would finish his verbal tirade, compose himself, turn to me, and say, “Now, what can I help you with today?” We always got along, but I had seen the way language and temper permeated that operation. Blasi and Asmussen get along so well professionally because they are cut from the same mindset. To be blunt: both are difficult to get along with for many. When I became a member of the official Kentucky Derby notes team for Churchill Downs, and Asmussen began to rise in stature nationally with horses for the Oaks and Derby, I remember the year when horse assignments came up and the team captain seemed taken aback when I welcomed the chance to cover Asmussen‟s horses daily for the media notes. Pool reporters the previous year were all but done with dealing with the personalities of Asmussen and Blasi and wanted nothing to do with them. But I had covered them in the past, understood their
means and had a very good working relationship. In fact, in years when Asmussen didn‟t have a horse in the Derby, he was one of the trainers I would go to in order to discuss the horses in the race. I had made a practice of identifying some trainers around the backstretch who could lend me an opinion of how good the competition was at a particular track, an Oaklawn, Fair Grounds, etc. Guys like Asmussen, the late Bob Holthus, trainer Bernie Flint, they were regular stops for me to lightly discuss horses for the Derby because they were straight shooters when it came to analysis. I recall in 2005 going by Asmussen‟s barn and asking him what he thought of Afleet Alex. He had run against him in Arkansas a few times and had a sense of that circuit. My question in essence was: What happened to Afleet Alex in the Rebel, when he ran sixth for no apparent reason, other than trainer Tim Ritchey coming out afterward and saying he had a minor lung infection?
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Asmussen replied, give or take a few words, that he had run many horses who were later found to have lung infections and none of their performances were that drastic from superstar to dead last. And as we walked away on the horse path from the track to the barn, he added something to the affect: Whatever it was with Afleet Alex, they figured it out in the Arkansas Derby, but it wasn’t any #$@#%!* lung infection.
Timing Is Everything PETA‟s video release in March 2014 came about just after Asmussen‟s Hall of Fame nomination was announced, and it appeared that the media-clever PETA crowd was using that timing in which to launch its assault on Asmussen. With him training a star filly to win the Kentucky Oaks in Untapable, and running Tapiture in the Kentucky Derby, the hush from PETA during the first weekend in May was a silencer – not the smoking gun – that really changed the narrative of this story for me.
Right or wrong, I have to admit that I was more in the camp that something was terribly amuck in the Asmussen shedrow upon seeing the video – even knowing full well the dastardly nature of the organization editing it. If that makes me naïve or disloyal to horse racing, I can accept that criticism. But I‟d be lying to you if I claimed that I saw the PETA video and felt an immediate need to defend racing, much less the subjects in the video being accused. Where there‟s smoke, there‟s usually fire.
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may speak volumes to just how ginned up the original video really was. At the least, even those of us who aren‟t in the camp that you must have DNA evidence to prove a common-sense case, it does make you think that this story had a short shelf life for a reason.
To Blasi or Not To Blasi? Hiring Blasi back wouldn‟t be my decision if I‟m running that company. There were enough terminable offenses in the video that implicated him beyond the accusations of illegal drug use or outright animal cruelty.
Racing typically will bury its head in the sand and hope this stuff goes away. It’s bad for business in a gambling game to unearth how corrupt the training process and drug culture may be, much less the implications of jockeys using buzzers that were part of the video‟s side story. So if racing was to let this all slide, you might not come to any firm conclusions that Asmussen and Blasi deserve a pass.
His inability to separate ownertrainer relationships by sharing too much with the staff was strike one, and the reason Asmussen gave for his original “relief” of duty. Sharing the company‟s practice of falsifying Social Security documents for illegal aliens with low-level staff is another inexplicable dereliction of management, much less the illegality of the original practice.
But what about PETA? The fact that they‟ve quit beating this drum
More troubling to me, however, was the part of the video that gets
no attention. About 6 minutes in, Blasi discusses how he‟ll fool the attending vets and stewards by masking an injury to avoid a scratch next time. Even if that is business as usual in many claiming barns, it cannot be the practice at the higher levels in the spotlight. As I wrote in an ESPN.com piece about Doug O’Neill in 2010, you can’t have it both ways (link). If you want to be in the big leagues, you must wash your hands of the darker sides of the game and practices that occur with cheaper horses. I‟m not advocating that any horse deserves poor treatment or to run while nursing maladies, regardless of purse level or class. What I‟m saying is that when you run a highprofile sports business, which elitelevel trainers are, there‟s a true sense of brand recognition and public relations that are absolutely part of the business model. That’s not being politically correct; that’s running a multi-million dollar operation for multi-million dollar owners and investors.
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My Conclusions as of Today As for the allegations of illegal drugs or blatant mistreatment, I‟m left to think the latter doesn‟t exist if we haven‟t seen them four months later. With regards to the former, the illegal drugs, Asmussen‟s record of testing and violations has to stand on its own and be judged like all trainers working under the same rules. He‟s got a medication rap sheet that tells the story about which we don‟t have to speculate. It‟s the same for any trainer. The follow-up discussion should be what to do with all of those violators, including administering things like thyroid medications to horses without thyroid problems, and a toughened stance on sanctions, suspensions and testing. That‟s where the industry must buck up and get it right, or else public trust (read that to mean wagering dollars, not PETA sympathizers) will deal the game a terrible fate.
-HPN
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Waya (Sar), f/m, 12F-T Grace (SR), 3&up, 8.5F-T Seagram Cup (WO), 3&up, 8.5F Nandi (WO), 2yof, 6F 4 Shepperton (WO), 3&up, 6.5F NYSS (Sar), 3yo, 8F-T NYSS (Sar), 3yof, 8F-T Br. Columbia Cup (Hst), 7 stakes
Point Given / Photos By Z
AUGUST 2014 1 Caress (Sar), f/m, 5.5F-T Real Good Deal (Dmr), 3yo, 7F 2 WV Derby Day (Mnr), 9 stakes Whitney (Sar), 3&up, 9F Vanderbilt (Sar), 3&up, 6F Test (Sar), 3yof, 7F Lure (Sar), 4&up, 8.5F-T De la Rose (Sar), f/m, 8F-T Clement Hirsch (Dmr), f/m, 8.5F Eternal Search (WO), 3yof, 8.5F-T My Frenchman (Mth), 3&up, 5.5F-T Soaring Softly (GP), f/m, 8.5F-T LA Cup Day (LaD), 9 stakes IA Breeders Night (Prm), 7 stakes Coup (Elp), 3&up, 5.5F-T 3 Best Pal (Dmr), 2yo, 6.5F Tryo (Mth), 2yo, 5F-T
6 Sorrento (Dmr), 2yof, 6.5F John’s Call (Sar), 3&up, 13F-T AJ Foyt (Ind), 3&up, 8.5F-T Henderson (Ind), f/m, 8.5F-T Governors (Ind), 3yo, 8.32F First Lady (Ind), 3yof, 8.32F 7 Birdstone (Sar), 3&up, 15F 8 Hall of Fame (Sar), 3yo, 8.5F-T Daisycutter (Dmr), f/m, 5F-T John Bullit (Cby), 3&up, 8.5F-T Hoist Her Flag (Cby), f/m, 6F Debutante (SR), 2yof, 6F 9 Fourstardave (Sar), 3&up, 8F-T La Jolla (Dmr), 3yo, 8.5F-T Ontario Debutante, 2yof, 6F Gardenia (Elp), f/m, 8F Monmouth Oaks (Mth), 3yof, 8.5F Desert Vixen (GP), 2yof, 6F
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Dr. Fager (GP), 2yo, 6F Washington Oaks (Emd), 3yof, 9F Prairie Juvenile Mile (Prm), 2yo, 8F Leavitt (CT), 3yo, 7F Minnesota Derby (Cby), 3yo, 8.32F Minnesota Oaks (Cby), 3yof, 8.32F Jackson Owner’s (SR), 3&up, 5F-T Cleve Kindergarten (Tdn), 2yo, 6F 10 Mabee (Dmr), f/m, 9F-T Adirondack (Sar), 2yof, 6.5F Saratoga Special (Sar), 2yo, 6.5F Play the King (WO), 3&up, 7F-T Wonder Where (WO), 3yof, 10F-T Colleen (Mth), 2yof, 5F-T Fort Monmouth (Mth), f/m, 5.5F-T Cavonnier Juvenile (SR), 2yo, 6F Emerald Derby (Emd), 3yo, 9F Malvern Rose (PID), f/m, 8.5F Horizon (BTP), 3&up, 8.5F Vivacious (BTP), f/m), 8.5F 11 Tenski (Sar), 3yof, 8F-T 13 Troy (Sar), 3&up, 5.5F-T Green Flash (Dmr), 3&up, 5F-T 14 Saratoga Dew (Sar), f/m, 9F 15 Sandy Blue (Dmr), 3yof, 8F-T Morrissey (Sar), 3&up, 6.5F
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16 Arlington Million (AP), 3&up, 10F-T Beverly D (AP), f/m, 9.5F-T Secretariat (AP), 3yo, 10F-T Amer St Leger (AP), 3&up, 13.5F-T Straight Line (AP), 3yo, 8F Hatoof (AP), 3yof, 8.5F-T Alabama (Sar), 3yof, 10F Lake Placid (Sar), 3yof, 9F-T Del Mar Oaks (Dmr), 3yof, 9F-T Sky Classic (WO), 3&up, 10F-T Vandal (WO), 2yo, 6F Governor’s Cup (RP), 3&up, 9F Vance Sprint (RP), 3&up, 6F Jersey Shore (Mth), 3yo, 6F Christmas Past (GP), 3yof, 8.5F-T Arapahoe Classic (Arp), 3&up, 9F Sadie Hawkins (CT), f/m, 7F 17 Breeders (WO), 3yo, 12F-T Sword Dancer (Sar), 3&up, 12F-T Alydar (Sar), 4&up, 9F Iselin (Mth), 3&up, 9F Rancho Bernardo (Dmr), f/m, 6.5F Solana Beach (Dmr), f/m, 8F-T Gold Rush Futurity (Arp), 2yo, 6F 18 Summer Colony (Sar), f/m, 9F 20 Better Talk Now (Sar), 3yo, 8F-T 21 Union Avenue (Sar), f/m, 6.5F
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22 Personal Ensign (Sar), f/m, 9F Tale of the Cat (Sar), 3&up, 6F CTT & TOC (Dmr), f/m, 11F-T Red Earth (RP), 3&up, 7.5F-T
ITOBA Stallion (Ind), 3yof, 8F ITOBA Stallion (Ind), 3yo, 8F
23 Travers (Sar), 3yo, 10F King’s Bishop (Sar), 3yo, 7F Ballerina (Sar), f/m, 7F Ballston Spa (Sar), f/m, 8.5F-T Del Mar Hcp (Dmr), 3&up, 11F-T Ontario Colleen (WO), 3yo f, 8F Violet (Mth), f/m, 9F-T Forty Niner (GP), 3yo, 8.5F-T DeBartolo Mem (RP), 3&up, 8.5F-T
29 El Cajon (Dmr), 3yo, 8F Riskaverse (Sar), 3yof, 8F-T Ricks Memorial (RP), f/m, 8F-T
Turning For Home (Prx), 3&up, 8.5F-T
Gall Memorial (CT), 3&up, 7F 24 Pacific Classic (Dmr), 3&up, 10F Del Mar Mile (Dmr), 3&up, 8F-T Pat O’Brien (Dmr), 3&up, 7F Longacres Mile (Emd), 3&up, 8F Emerald Distaff (Emd), f/m, 9F Seaway (WO), f/m, 7F NY Showcase (Sar), 6 stakes Cliff Hanger (Mth), 3&up, 9F-T 25 Smart N Fancy (Sar), f/m, 5.5F-T 27 Ontario-bred Day (WO), 6 stakes PG Johnson (Sar), 2yof, 8.5F-T Generous Portion (Dmr), 2yof, 6F
28 With Anticipation (Sar), 2yo, 8.5F-T
30 Woodward (Sar), 3&up, 9F Forego (Sar), 3&up, 7F B Baruch (Sar), 3&up, 8.5F-T Prioress (Sar), 3yof, 6F Washington Park (AP), 3&up, 9F Del Mar Debutante (Dmr), 3yof, 7F Brubaker (Dmr), 3&up, 8F Vice Regent (WO), 3yo, 8F-T Boiling Springs (Mth), 3yof, 9F-T Monarchos (GP), 3yo, 8F Bishop Memorial (CT), 3yof, 7F Evangeline Star (Evd), 2yo, 6F Evangeline Starlet (Evd), 2yof, 6F 31 Del Mar Derby (Dmr), 3yo, 9F-T Torrey Pines (Dmr), 3yof, 8F Tranquility Lake (Dmr), f/m, 8F Spinaway (Sar), 2yof, 7F Glens Falls (Sar), f/m, 11F-T Sapling (Mth), 2yo, 8F Sorority (Mth), 2yof, 6F Ruidoso Derby (Rui), 3yo, 8.5F MN-bred Day (Cby), 6 stakes
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Aug 22 – Timonium meet opens Aug 23 – TV: NBC Travers Aug 24 – TV: NBCSN Pacific Classic Aug 26 – Online: Night School Aug 27 – Online: Woodbine chat Aug 29 – Sep HPN Mag release Aug 30 – TV: NBCSN Woodward Aug 30 – Evangeline meet ends Horse Player NOW hosts Jeremy Plonk & Katie Gensler live teaching seminar on-track at Presque Isle August 6! Aug 2 – TV: NBC Whitney/Test Aug 2 – Albuquerque meet opens Aug 5 – Online: Night School Aug 6 – Night School Tour onsite at Presque Isle for Family Night Aug 9 – Prairie Mdws meet ends Aug 10 – TV: FS1 Saratoga Special Aug 12 – Online: Night School Aug 13 – Online: Woodbine chat Aug 13 – Ferndale meet opens Aug 15 – Remington meet opens Aug 15 – Online: Remington chat Aug 15 – Golden Gate meet opens Aug 17 – TV: FS1 Sword Dancer Aug 17 – Arapahoe meet ends Aug 19 – Online: Night School Aug 20 – Online: Woodbine chat Aug 22 – Online: Remington chat
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KING’S BISHOP August 23, 2014
AUGUST RACE OF THE MONTH
The Spa will be jammed Aug. 23 KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE KING’S BISHOP: Each of the last 3 winners rallied from 8th or farther back since Discreetly Mine wired the ’10 cast. Lost in the Fog (’05) is the only west coast shipper to win this race since 2001. 5 of the last 6 exited a local prep already at the Saratoga meeting. Only 2 winners of the last 10 were turning back from a route – Willy Beamin and Hard Spun. 4 of the last 5 winners were horses who were not part of Triple Crown. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Capo Bastone rallied from more than 15 lengths back to nail a hard-luck dueler Mentor Cane. The 28/1 “other Pletcher” outkicked 5/2 favorite & stablemate Forty Tales.
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HANDICAPPER’S AIDES: Last 10 Winners – Full History ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
Capo Bastone T. Pletcher Willy Beamin R. Dutrow Caleb’s Posse DK Von Hemel Discreetly Mine T. Pletcher Capt Candyman Can I. Wilkes Visionaire M. Matz Hard Spun L. Jones Henny Hughes K. McLaughlin Lost in the Fog G. Gilchrest Pomeroy P. Biancone
I. Ortiz A. Garcia R. Maragh J. Velazquez J. Castellano A. Garcia M. Pino J. Velazquez R. Baze E. Prado
Last 10 Winners’ Preps ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
Capo Bastone Willy Beamin Caleb’s Posse Discreetly Mine CaptCandymanCan Visionaire Hard Spun Henny Hughes Lost in the Fog Pomeroy
7th 1st 1st 1st 2nd 1st 2nd 1st 1st 2nd
Woody Stephens (Bel) Albany (Sar) Amsterdam (Sar) Amsterdam (Sar) Amsterdam (Sar) allowance (Sar) Haskell (Mth) Jersey Shore (Mth) Carry Back (Crc) Amsterdam (Sar)
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HANDICAPPING HINTS While premier summer racing is most often associated with Saratoga in the East and Del Mar in the West, Arlington International Racecourse near Chicago is unquestionably the epicenter of summer racing in the Midwest with its international festival of racing, quality two-yearold racing program, and a colony of well-known horsemen. A benefit that Arlington has that those aforementioned summer tracks don’t, is that AP opens in May, giving summer racing handicappers a chance to identify trends in the circuit when big events such as the Arlington Million on August 16 come around. Those familiar with this space and Brisnet.com’s circuit snapshots using data gleaned from the ALLWays software won’t read much new here in the way of angles. The same variables that predicate success at other venues work at Arlington as well, but understanding how well they work can help wagering decisions as well as handicapping ones.
as handicapping ones. As a multi-race player, two of the questions I most often ask myself are, 1) Where can I single, and 2) where should I spread? When it comes to non-maiden main track (Polytrack) races at Arlington, the last-out Brisnet.com Speed Rating is a good single indicator with horses sporting a 7point advantage in that category winning 38% of the time with a +1% ROI, so you’re actually getting a little bit of value on the standout as well. These types also hit the board 78% of the time, so there’s something here for vertical players as well! Back speed and dirt speed do not do well at Arlington, so do not be fooled by black class—especially if that top performance came on dirt. The top Brisnet.com Speed Rating (from the last 10 starts) wins just 25% of the time with a -27% ROI. If that top rating came on dirt, then the win percentage drops to 23%. If looking for a longshot to include,
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HANDICAPPING HINTS If looking for a longshot to include, then late pace is worth a look. The horse with the best late pace numbers in two of its last three starts has won just 17% this year at Arlington, but the ROI is “only” -5%. The few times they’ve won, they’ve paid. This is the type of angle I won’t lean on by itself, but if you’re getting something else in the horse’s favor like a positive rider/trainer change or a cutback, then it’s worth a flyer at a price. We love PRIME POWER here at Brisnet.com, but so do Arlington bettors. The top Prime Power horse has won 36% this year, but the ROI is -11%. You can use these horses with confidence, but try to add some value to the ticket elsewhere. So that’s Polytrack, but what about the turf that will play host to all those great races in a couple weeks? In turf routes, late pace is again a powerful indicator. I.e., this is a course you need to finish well on, and the top late pace while winning only 19% of the time
and the top late pace – while winning only 19% of the time – breaks even from an ROI standpoint, and if that top horse has at least a two-point cushion then it’s 20% wins with a +5% ROI. Here’s something really interesting with late pace, though. If we use those same horses in races considered to have either an extremely fast or slow pace then this metric produces a +2% ROI, and if the gap is at least 6 points, then the win percentage is 30% with a +100% ROI (double your money). When it comes to the Arlington turf, solid closers will get to run their race if pace is present. Good luck! Ed DeRosa
– from the ALL-Ways Database
Dealing with Del Mar. To say it’s been a tough go at Del Mar to open the 2014 meeting would be an understatement. Whether it’s the turf course condition, the Polytrack, a rash of horse fatalities (including G1 winner Dance With Fate – one of my favorites), or just plain, bad handicapping, it’s been difficult to embrace one of the season’s most lovable annual fixtures. Through the meet’s first two weeks, favorites won just 23% and the average winner has been 8.6-to-1 odds. That kind of uphill handicapping even makes Keeneland’s puzzles look like match races at the county fair. The average $.50 pick 5 during that span paid $40,000! Field size was up to open the stand, and it’s natural to expect that to soften a bit as the weeks unfold. As field size drops, so, too, should prices and the level of difficulty in landing winners.
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The boxcar payoffs we’ve come to expect will wane, but will they be replaced by more “reachable” prices? That’s the hope. Opening day had 18/1, 25/1 and 30/1 winners to set the tone. A pair of 53/1 shots and a trio of 20/1s lit the tote during Week 2. In the spirit of fairness, trust and honesty, which are hallmarks of what we do at Horse Player NOW, our Del Mar handicapping was abysmal – like much of the public. My first 11 spot plays of the meet went 11: 2-1-1 and paid a measly $3 and $6.20. As a horseplayer and public handicapper, my job now is to work even harder – printing every chart, watching replays and unearthing the Hows and Whys in the results. Nobody ever said summer was all fun and games. Let’s hope it starts paying off. - JP
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