2019 Countdown to Crown Preseason Annual

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CONTENTS 2019 ANNUAL 4

From The Publisher

6 14th Anniversary:

Countdown to the Crown

A history of the report, 2006-‘19.

8 Beat the Host

Do you have what it takes to score in the $50,000 Xpressbet contest?

10 Leaving Behind Apollo

22 Top 100 BRIS Speed Ratings

Complete list of the fastest 2YOs of 2018 by the BRISNET numbers.

26 Preseason Top 20 horses

Jeremy Plonk publishes his first Top 20 of the2019 season here.

28 Famous Families

There’s a fascination with the fancily bred. Find out who’s got the genes in this year’s crop.

30 The Big List 2019

More than 200 sophomores go under our watch + star rankings.

Did Justify wreck all things historic when it comes to the Derby? You might want to think twice about it.

Full, easy-print prep schedule.

18 Three’s Not Company

46 Individual Prep Histories

44 2019 Road to the Crown

Baffert, Pletcher & Brown continue a stranglehold on US racing & TC.

From January through the Belmont, a 2-page preview of every major stop-off on the trail.

20 2018 2YO Stakes Results

116 Notebook

Quick hits on future bets & more.

Laurel Park 2019 Winter/Spring Stakes

CLOSES ........... RUNS ................ STAKE ......................................................AGE......................DISTANCE .......................PURSE

Thu., Jan. 3 ......Sat., Jan. 12 ...... Fire Plug ................................................... 4 & Up ..................6 Furlongs .......................$100,000 Guaranteed Thu., Jan. 3 ......Sat., Jan. 12 ...... What A Summer ....................................... F&M 4 & Up .........6 Furlongs .......................$100,000 Guaranteed Thu., Jan. 3 ......Sat., Jan. 12 ...... Native Dancer .......................................... 4 & Up ..................About 11/16 Miles ..............$100,000 Guaranteed Thu., Jan. 3 ......Sat., Jan. 12 ...... Nellie Morse ............................................. F&M 4 & Up .........About 11/16 Miles ..............$100,000 Guaranteed Thu., Feb. 7 ......Sat., Feb. 16 ...... General George (Grade 3) ........................ 4 & Up ..................7 Furlongs .......................$250,000 Guaranteed Thu., Feb. 7 ......Sat., Feb. 16 ...... Barbara Fritchie (Grade 3) ....................... F&M 4 & Up .........7 Furlongs .......................$250,000 Guaranteed Thu., Feb. 7 ......Sat., Feb. 16 ...... Wide Country ........................................... Fillies 3-y-o .........7 Furlongs .......................$100,000 Guaranteed Thu., Feb. 7 ......Sat., Feb. 16 ...... John B. Campbell ..................................... 4 & Up ..................11/8 Miles ..........................$100,000 Guaranteed Thu., Feb. 7 ......Sat., Feb. 16 ...... Miracle Wood ........................................... 3-y-o ....................1 Mile ...............................$100,000 Guaranteed Thu., Feb. 7 ......Mon., Feb. 18 .... Maryland Racing Media........................... F&M 4 & Up .........About 11/16 Miles ..............$100,000 Guaranteed Thu., Mar. 7 ......Sat., Mar. 16 ...... Beyond the Wire ....................................... Fillies 3-y-o .........1 Mile ...............................$100,000 Guaranteed Thu., Mar. 7 ......Sat., Mar. 16 ...... Private Terms ........................................... 3-y-o ....................About 11/16 Miles ..............$100,000 Guaranteed Thu., Mar. 7 ......Sat., Mar. 16 ...... Harrison Johnson Memorial .................... 4 & Up ..................11/8 Miles ..........................$100,000 Guaranteed Thu., Mar. 7 ......Sat., Mar. 16 ...... Conniver (MD-Bred or MD-Sired) ............ F&M 4 & Up .........7 Furlongs .......................$75,000 Guaranteed Thu., Mar. 7 ......Sat., Mar. 16 ...... Not For Love (MD-Bred or MD-Sired) ...... 4 & Up ..................6 Furlongs .......................$75,000 Guaranteed Thu., Apr. 11 .....Sat., Apr. 20....... Federico Tesio (Winner Free Preakness Entry)* ....... 3-y-o ....................11/8 Miles .......................$125,000 Guaranteed Thu., Apr. 11 .....Sat., Apr. 20....... Weber City Miss (Winner Free BES Entry) ............ Fillies 3-y-o .........About 11/16 Miles ..............$125,000 Guaranteed Thu., Apr. 11 .....Sat., Apr. 20....... Frank Whiteley, Jr. M ............................... 3 & Up ..................6 Furlongs .......................$100,000 Guaranteed Thu., Apr. 11 .....Sat., Apr. 20....... Primonetta M ........................................... F&M 3 & Up .........6 Furlongs .......................$100,000 Guaranteed Thu., Apr. 11 .....Sat., Apr. 20....... Dahlia M................................................... F&M 3 & Up .........1 Mile (Turf) .....................$100,000 Guaranteed Thu., Apr. 11 .....Sat., Apr. 20....... Henry S. Clark (Listed) ............................. 3 & Up ..................1 Mile (Turf) .....................$100,000 Guaranteed Thu., Apr. 11 .....Sat., Apr. 20....... King T. leatherbury M .............................. 3 & Up ..................51/2 Furlongs (Turf) ..........$100,000 Guaranteed M - Denotes MATCH Series Race *Free Preakness Entry applies to Triple Crown Nominated Horses ONLY

Visit laurelpark.com for full racing schedule.

P.O. Box 130, Laurel, Maryland 20725 800.638.1859 • 301.725.0400 • Fax 301.725.4561 Coleman “Coley” Blind, Stakes Coordinator

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From the Publisher At the time of this publishing, there are only 120 days until Kentucky Derby 145.

Our dear friend John Asher would be happy to report that. John had the official days ‘til tally at the ready every day I ever knew him – and opened nearly every conversation with that fact.

Everyone loved the gregarious and informed communications face of Churchill Downs. He joined the Lord last August, a few months after Justify won the second Triple Crown of Asher’s tenure at the landmark Louisville track. I met John 25 years ago when I was an intern at Churchill and he was then a radio reporter for 840 WHAS in Louisville. It didn’t take long to realize he was ‘good people,’ as they say in the south. We never missed a chance to catch up, and he never hesitated to call back, text or reach out when I had an idea to bounce. “Your wheels of commerce are always in motion,” he reminded me. With that in mind, the only fitting way to put the 2019 Countdown season in motion is to honor John Asher.

Countdown to the Crown Preseason Annual / Horse Player NOW Magazine Copyright 2019 Horse Player NOW All Rights Reseved

Editor, Publisher, Designer Jeremy Plonk Contributing Research BRISNET Photography Credits

Photos By Z / Keeneland Coady Photography / Churchill Downs, Oaklawn Park Adam Coglianese / NYRA Chelsea Durand / NYRA Benoit Photos / Santa Anita, Del Mar, Los Alamitos Dustin Orona / Remington Park Michael Burns / Woodbine Jim McCue / Maryland Jockey Club

STAY UNTIL MAY January 25-May 4

WHERE PURSES CONTINUE TO RISE $550,000 Average Daily Purses MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHTS–$77,000 | OPEN ALLOWANCE RACES–$78,000 JANUARY 25

$150,000 SMARTY JONES*

3 YO

1M

JANUARY 26

$100,000 AMERICAN BEAUTY

4 YO & UP, F & M

6F

FEBRUARY 2

$125,000 MARTHA WASHINGTON

3 YO F

1M

FEBRUARY 9

$100,000 KING COTTON

4 YO & UP

6F

FEBRUARY 16

$100,000 DIXIE BELLE

3 YO F

6F

FEBRUARY 18

$200,000 BAYAKOA (GR. 3)

4 YO & UP, F & M

1 1/16 M

FEBRUARY 18

$500,000 RAZORBACK HANDICAP (GR. 3)

4 YO & UP

1 1/16 M

FEBRUARY 18

$500,000 SOUTHWEST (GR. 3)*

3 YO

1 1/16 M

FEBRUARY 23

$100,000 DOWNTHEDUSTYROAD BREEDERS’

3 YO & UP, F & M (AR) 6 F

MARCH 2

$100,000 SPRING FEVER

4 YO & UP, F & M

5 1/2 F

MARCH 9

$150,000 HOT SPRINGS

4 YO & UP

6F

MARCH 9

$200,000 HONEYBEE (GR. 3)

3 YO F

1 1/16 M

MARCH 16

$300,000 ESSEX HANDICAP

4 YO & UP

1 1/16 M

MARCH 16

$350,000 AZERI (GR. 2)

4 YO & UP, F & M

1 1/16 M

MARCH 16

$1,000,000 REBEL (GR. 2)*

3 YO

1 1/16 M

MARCH 23

$100,000 NODOUBLE BREEDERS’

3 YO & UP (AR)

6F

MARCH 23

$125,000 GAZEBO

3 YO

6F

MARCH 30

$150,000 PURPLE MARTIN

3 YO F

6F

APRIL 6

$150,000 CAROUSEL

4 YO & UP, F & M

6F

APRIL 12

$500,000 FANTASY (GR. 3)

3 YO F

1 1/16 M

APRIL 13

$400,000 COUNT FLEET SPRINT HANDICAP (GR.3)

4 YO & UP

6F

APRIL 13

$750,000 OAKLAWN HANDICAP (GR. 2)

4 YO & UP

1 1/8 M

APRIL 13

$1,000,000 ARKANSAS DERBY (GR. 1)*

3 YO

1 1/8 M

APRIL 14

$700,000 APPLE BLOSSOM HANDICAP (GR. 1)

4 YO & UP, F & M

1 1/16M

APRIL 20

$100,00O RAINBOW

3 YO (AR)

6F

APRIL 20

$100,000 RAINBOW MISS

3 YO F (AR)

6F

APRIL 27

$150,000 BACHELOR

3 YO

MAY 3

$200,000 THE OAKLAWN MILE

MAY 4 MAY 4

S

6 13 20 27

S

3 10 17 24 S

3 10 17 24 31 S

7 14 21 28

T

W

T

F

S

1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 10 11 12 14 15 16 17 18 19 21 22 23 24 25 26 28 29 30 31

FEBRUARY

M

T

W

T

F

S

1 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 18 19 20 21 22 23 25 26 27 28 M

MARCH T

F

S

4 5 6 7 11 12 13 14 18 19 20 21 25 26 27 28

1 8 15 22 29

2 9 16 23 30

M

T

W

APRIL W

T

F

S

1 2 3 8 9 10 15 16 17 22 23 24 29 30

4 11 18 25

5 12 19 26

6 13 20 27

M

T

T

MAY W

T

F

S

6F

1

2

3

4

4 YO & UP

1M

$200,000 ARKANSAS BREEDERS’ CHAMPIONSHIP

3 YO & UP (AR)

1 1/16 M

$250,000 THE OAKLAWN INVITATIONAL

3 YO

1 1/8 M

For more information please contact: Oaklawn Racing Office racing@oaklawn.com | 501-701-5570

1-800-OAKLAWN • OAKLAWN.COM | JANUARY 25−MAY 4 *Kentucky Derby Point Race

S

JANUARY

M

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14 season begins for Countdown to the Crown th

By Jeremy Plonk

Countdown began a month before

the birth of my daughter in 2006, and little did I know how much I’d enjoy watching them both grow.

One rates far more important than the other, but each has a unique role in my definition. With both I get to see progress daily, weekly and annually. The blossom is unmistakable.

For the 14th year, we’ll have you covered from maidens to the classics once again in a format that’s often imitated, but never duplicated. Before Countdown to the Crown, much of the Derby trail coverage leaned on news and features. There wasn’t much in

terms of true analysis. Cheerleaders, novelists and news folks shared the prep path with the year’s best horses.

But we studied things like gallopouts and closing splits, and common opponents to consider a strength of schedule, things now appearing in many weekly or seasonal write-ups. But your loyal following and our continued exercise in digging deeper than anyone has propelled Countdown.

It’s still about that discovery of something new, finding the next big thing or putting what we’ve seen among the Triple Crown prospects into a sensible context.

Countdown is detailed, and I make

no apologies for that. Those who’ve followed the series have read more than 1 million words about the top prospects.

Handicapping horse races is an intellectual exercise, and the driveby society not interested in putting in the effort won’t ever be turned on to it. It’s never been my desire to make things watered down so more folks might stumble into a short-term interest.

Countdown is written for serious

horseplayers and followers of the game’s true regular season, playoffs and Super Bowl. It’s the one time of year where things are defined, goals are common and we can envision players and schedules with a championship sense.

This marks the sxith year that I’ve taken full control of distribution of Countdown. I’ve bounced it around on various websites since its debut.

Each time, the decision was mine when to move & for what reasons; first and foremost, where I thought it could best benefit the bettor.    

Horseplayerdaily.com (2006-‘07) ESPN.com (2008-‘11) DRF.com (2012-‘13) Countdowntothecrown.com (2014-present)

7 Countdown runs from the first Friday in January through the Belmont Stakes, 22 weeks per year on average. Five years ago, we added coverage of Canada’s Queen’s Plate trail and main event.

This expanded the series into the first weekend in July.

Countdown is a week-long exercise

that begins each Monday with a review of the charts, videos and coverage of the previous week’s 3year-old races. Also each Monday, I set out the weekly calendar and plot each and every 3-year-old maiden special weight, allowance and stakes race on my weekly worksheets that soon start to look like a Chinese takeout menu.

By the end of the day on Tuesday, I’ve written all the race reviews and recaps and put half of the scouting report to bed. With Wednesday’s entries for Saturday released, my work begins in handicapping each of the races for not only prospects, but also potential plays. We don’t put this kind of effort in just for verbage.

By Thursday night, my handicapping is complete; and on Friday each week I put the finishing touches in with my updated Top 20 before the official release. – JP

Come Get a Piece of the Pros Take down some of the most wellknown handicappers in racing this January and February and you could win your share of $50,000 in prizes in Xpressbet’s Beat the Host.

The annual online contest returns Jan. 4 and pits you against the pros each Saturday.

For the fifth straight year, Countdown author Jeremy Plonk will open the Beat the Host season as the target of horseplayers worldwide. Out-handicap him and earn your share of $2,500 in weekly prizes and be eligible for the grand prizes. All you have to do is out-earn the weekly host in eight $5 win wagers posted to your Xpressbet.com account. The host picks the races; you get to make the last call as host picks are posted by 5 pm each Friday.

The weekly mandatory races are a split of events from Gulfstream

8

Park and Santa Anita, typically 4 each or a 3-5 division some weeks.

Here is the 2018 Beat the Host schedule of hosts:

Plonk

Ball

White

Siegel

Byk

Nicoletti

Quigley

Olcyzk

Jan 4 Jan 11 Jan 18 Jan 25 Feb 1 Feb 8 Feb 15 Feb 22

Jeremy Plonk Millie Ball Jon White Jeff Siegel Steve Byk Ron Nicoletti Tom Quigley Eddie Olcyzk

Xpressbet XBTV SA XBTV SiriusXM GP SA NBC Sports

Tips For Beating the Pros The public has a big advantage in that the hosts’ picks are published in advance and you can play off of those and counter the hosts’ moves. For instance, if the host picks a likely $3 horse that’s a heavy favorite, you can swing for

9

something big in that race and feel as though the worst you can do is fall $3 behind. When the host takes a big price swing, you can feel more comfortable playing a favorite and taking the edge.

Prizes: Qualifying Round Weekly prizes awarded to top 3 finishers based on total mutuel payoffs on the $5 win wagers: • • • •

1st - $1,500 2nd - $750 3rd - $250 Also any player that Beats the Host qualifies for the Beat the Host Championship Round.

The $5,000 Sweep the Host Bonus is awarded to any single player who exceeds the host’s cumulative mutuel total in each of all eight weeks of the Qualifying Round.

•

•

If no player wins the Bonus, a $2,000 consolation prize will be awarded to the player who is the last to lose to the host in weekly competition.

Players can win multiple weekly prizes.

Prizes: Championship Round Cash prizes awarded to top 10 finishers based on total mutuel payoffs: • • • • • •

1st - $5,000 2nd - $4,000 3rd - $3,000 4th - $1,000 5th - 10th - $500 Top thirty (30) finishers in the Championship Round based on cumulative mutuel payoffs earn complimentary seats to the $100,000 Xpressbet Showdown Tournament ($300 value each).

10

LEAVI NG BEHI ND APOLLO

LEAVING BEHIND APOLLO History Still Influential Factor in Handicapping

Apollo has been dead since 1887. He lived only to the age of 8. But his legacy lasted some 136 years until May 5, 2018. Justify exorcised the curse of Apollo not in surprise fashion, but as a 6th straight post-time favorite to win the Kentucky Derby. Two-year-old experience be damned.

As it turns out, bettors aren’t much afraid of curses.

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LEAVI NG BEHI ND APOLLO So when the horses gather in Louisville on this first Saturday in May, what Boogieman will be hiding in the bushes? Are all the curses and so-called disqualifiers gone obsolete?

The answer to that does not reside in your acceptance or faith. No, it begins and ends with your appreciation for the process.

In fact, most all of the things we wrestle about in terms of Triple Crown trail lore go back to whether or not you believe a horse race is an individual island on to its own; or, if past development and the foundation of form play any role in today’s result.

My advice when betting the horses boils down quite simply to this: Get paid when you are right. This game we play with real money is hard enough that we need not accept less than our fair share back. Whether you believe in comparing Ragozin numbers or the curse of Apollo, a fair

Whether you believe in comparing Ragozin numbers or the curse of Apollo, a fair value assessment should always come back to the most important factor in whether to make a bet or take a pass.

Jeremy Plonk

value assessment should always come back to the most important factor in whether to make a bet or take a pass.

If you loved Justify, you did not get enough at $7.80 to win to overcome the common-sense nature of the Apollo talk. A horse that developmentally behind pulled off a feat of extraordinary proportions. And you got paid the same amount as a maiden claimer dropping in class tonight at Penn National. $1 exacta ($34) and trifecta ($141) players also made little hay, so to speak.

Thank you all for 10 amazing years!

Join us throughout 2019 as we celebrate all the way through our Dec. 15 anniversary.

14

LEAVI NG BEHI ND APOLLO But if you loved Justify, keyed him seven ways to Sunday on top in the pick four, pick five, or superfecta, you have every license to say the risk was worth the 136-year naysayers.

Those bets returned $69K, $620K and $19K thanks to some price boosters around the star of the show.

I mention the payoffs to remind everyone that you can be true to your handicapping beliefs and value judgments and still benefit your bottom line. Statistical trends and what look like tendencies remain very fair game in my decision-making and should be in yours. Just be sure to hook up the risk and reward.

Even those who vehemently claim they don’t follow historical trends are the next in line to bet a trainer’s blinkers-on percentage based

on other horses, or a pedigree play based on the success of horses not only absent from this race, but who may not have been on the track in years. In predicting the future, we all use historical markers. Even speed and performance fig aficionados rely on past figure histories of each horse in making their current figures, much less any figure pattern having far more to do with past races than this particular one.

So maybe there’s no ‘Apollo’ pounding you over the head as you handicap this year’s Triple Crown trail prospects.

Maybe the old 5-week layoff ‘Needles’ toss-out rule went by the wayside after Barbaro.

They built statues of him (pic) for his heroic medical fight, but he also changed the way other horsemen would tackle the Derby and how we play it.

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16

LEAVI NG BEHI ND APOLLO

Maybe you can stomach betting Todd Pletcher to win in the Derby now after Super Saver and Always Dreaming.

You might even like a new shooter or a filly in the Preakness, post-Rachel Alexandra.

But, rest assured, something from the past will creep into your present decision-making process.

The reliance on historical facts did not die when Justify bid farewell to Apollo. While that book make have closed, it is

filled literally by millions upon millions of other pages that will challenge horseplayers to test their assumptions that A+B will equal C. It’s what we do.

Last I checked, they still don’t print future performances; they print PAST performances.

History matters, whether you want to believe it or not.

- Jerem y Plonk

18

THR EE’S N OT COM P AN Y

Want to Win a Classic?

Come & Knock on Their Door

The gap between America’s three power barns and the rest of the pack measures a wide one. So it comes as little surprise that Bob Baffert, Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown have taken their troika of dominance and asserted it in the Triple Crown.

The last 6 Triple Crown race winners have been horded among Baffert, Pletcher and Brown. Swing it back to 2015 and they’ve accounted for 9 of the last 12 spring classics.

Horses like American Pharoah and Justify don’t come along often to be sure. But when they do, they’ve been almost exclusively Baffert projects.

Mix in Pletcher’s pair of Always Dreaming & Tapwrit,

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THR EE’S N OT COM P AN Y along with Brown’s Cloud Computing. It’s been quite a run of superstars and one-hit wonders for the power trio.

The 2016 season managed to be a Big Three-free zone.

Doug O’Neill (Nyquist), Keith Desormeaux (Exaggerator) and Steve Asmussen (Creator) had the audacity to RSVP for the winner’s circle that year.

When might we next hear from them, or anyone else for that matter?

Asmussen has broken up the party some in 2018, but it’s taken almost as many starts as Brown, Baffert and Pletcher combined to nuzzle himself between the Big Three on the end-of-year top earnings list.

Brown ($26M), Pletcher ($22M) and Baffert ($21M) were America’s only three trainers in 2017 to top $20M in earnings. They finished 1-24 in 2016, 1-2-3 in 2015, 2014 and 2013. You have to go back to 2011 to find the last time the Big Three

weren’t in the top 5 of the year-end trainers’ list.

So as we begin our study of the 2019 trail, consider the hands dealt to Baffert, Brown and Pletcher. Let’s take them by barn, highlighting their most successful 2YOs of ‘18: BOB’S BIG BOYS      

Game Winner Improbable Mucho Gusto Coliseum Roadster Kingly

PLETCHER POSSE     

King for a Day Opry Current Sombeyay La Fuerza

BROWN BAG SPECIALS     

Complexity Fog of War Network Effect Standard Deviation US Navy Cross -

Jeremy Plonk

20

Date

2018 Juvenile Graded Stakes Results

30-Jun 21-Jul 11-Aug 12-Aug 29-Aug 3-Sep 3-Sep 15-Sep 16-Sep 29-Sep 29-Sep 6-Oct 6-Oct 7-Oct 21-Oct 2-Nov 2-Nov 4-Nov 17-Nov 24-Nov 25-Nov 1-Dec 8-Dec

Track Race Name CD Sar Dmr Sar Sar Dmr Sar CD WO SA Bel Bel Kee Kee WO CD CD Aq Dmr CD Dmr Aqu Lrc

Bashford Manor Sanford Stakes Best Pal Stakes Saratoga Special With Anticipation Del Mar Futurity Hopeful Stakes Iroquois Stakes Summer Stakes American Pharoah Pilgrim Stakes Champagne Stakes Breeders' Futurity Bourbon Stakes Grey Stakes Br. Cup Juvenile Br. Cup Juvenile Turf Nashua Stakes Bob Hope Stakes Kentucky Jockey Club Cecil B. DeMille Remsen Stakes Lrc CashCall Futurity

GR III III II II III I I III I I III I I III III I I III III II III II I

Dist/Surf 6f Dirt 6f Dirt 6f Dirt 6.5f Dirt 8.5f Turf 7f Dirt 7f Dirt 8.5f Dirt 8f Turf 8.5f Dirt 8.5f Turf 8f Dirt 8.5f Dirt 8.5f Turf 8.5f AW 8.5f Dirt 8f Turf 8f Dirt 7f Dirt 8.5f Dirt 8f Turf 9f Dirt 8.5f Dirt

Horse

SIR TRUEBADOUR SOMBEYAY INSTAGRAND CALL PAUL OPRY GAME WINNER MIND CONTROL CAIRO CAT FOG OF WAR GAME WINNER FORTY UNDER COMPLEXITY KNICKS GO CURRENT SOLIDIFY GAME WINNER LINE OF DUTY VEKOMA MUCHO GUSTO SIGNALMAN FLYING SCOTSMAN MAXIMUS MISCHIEF IMPROBABLE

KNICKS GO – Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland

Trainer

S. Asmussen T. Pletcher J. Hollendorfer Ja. Servis T. Pletcher B. Baffert G. Sacco K. McPeek C. Brown B. Baffert J. Englehart C. Brown R. Nicks T. Pletcher R. Baker B. Baffert C. Appleby G. Weaver B. Baffert K. McPeek J. Hollendorfer R. Reid B. Baffert

SAT, FEB 16 $250,000 GUARANTEED BARBARA FRITCHIE STAKES-G3 Fillies & Mares, Four-Years-Old & Upward Seven Furlongs

$250,000 GUARANTEED GENERAL GEORGE STAKES-G3

Four-Year-Olds and Upward • Seven Furlongs

$100,000 GUARANTEED JOHN B. CAMPBELL STAKES Four-Year-Olds & Upward • One Mile & One Eighth

$100,000 GUARANTEED WIDE COUNTRY STAKES Fillies, Three-Years-Old • Seven Furlongs

$100,000 GUARANTEED MIRACLE WOOD STAKES Three-Year-Olds • One Mile

MON, FEB 18 $100,000 GUARANTEED MD RACING MEDIA STAKES

Fillies & Mares, Four-Years-Old & Upward About One Mile & One Sixteeenth

NOMINATIONS CLOSE THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 7

P.O. BOX 130, LAUREL, MARYLAND 20725 800.638.1859 • 301.725.0400 • FAX 301.725.4561 COLEMAN “COLEY” BLIND, STAKES COORDINATOR

22

TOP 100 JUVENILE SPEED RATINGS OF 2018 Horse Bulletin Maximus Mischief Maximus Mischief Network Effect Jaywalk Garter and Tie Game Winner Blindwillie McTell Well Defined Tax Souper Jackpot Chelsea Cloisters Trophy Chaser Garter and Tie Vekoma Bellafina Tale of the Union Well Defined Knicks Go Factor It In Lucky Lee Fully Loaded So Perfect Cajun Firecracker Instagrand Improbable Flashy Doll Improbable

Trk CD AQU PRX AQU CD GP CD AQU GP AQU GP CD GP GP AQU DMR DMR GP CD PRX PRX GP CD GP DMR LRC GP CD

Dst 5.5F 9F 7F 9F 8.5F 8F 8.5F 6F 8.5F 9F 8F 5.5F 6F 7F 8F 6F 5.5F 7F 8.5F 6F 8F 6F 5.5F 6F 6F 8.5F 5F 8F

Sfc T D D D D D D D D D D T D D D D D D D D D D T D D D T D

Date Fin Speed 2-Nov 1 106 1-Dec 1 106 20-Oct 1 104 1-Dec 2 104 2-Nov 1 103 8-Dec 1 103 2-Nov 1 103 16-Dec 1 103 29-Sep 1 103 1-Dec 3 103 8-Dec 2 102 2-Nov 2 102 25-Aug 1 102 1-Sep 1 102 4-Nov 1 101 5-Aug 1 101 26-Aug 1 101 1-Sep 2 101 2-Nov 2 100 1-Oct 1 100 17-Nov 1 100 4-Aug 2 100 2-Nov 3 100 4-Aug 1 100 11-Aug 1 100 8-Dec 1 100 15-Dec 1 100 2-Nov 1 99

Compiled for leading North American circuits at 5F-plus distances.

23

TOP 100 JUVENILE SPEED RATINGS OF 2018 Network Effect Union's Destiny Newspaperofrecord Invigorous Complexity Thorny Tale Garter and Tie Queen of Bermuda Signalman Brill Lady Magica Zenden Mother Mother Big Drink of Water Soldier's Call (GB) Break Curfew Le General Bankit Call Paul Serengeti Empress Cave Run Kosciuszko Jaywalk Cruel Intention Covfefe Fortin Hill Market Success Newspaperofrecord Catherinethegreat

AQU GP BEL LRL BEL AQU GP CD CD DMR GP GP DMR CD CD BEL AQU SAR DEL ELP TAM BEL BEL SA CD BEL BTP CD SAR

8F 8F 8.5F 7F 8F 6F 6F 5.5F 8.5F 5F 5F 6F 6F 5.5F 5.5F 6F 6F 5.5F 5.5F 7F 6F 6F 8F 7F 6F 6F 6F 8F 6F

D D T D D D D T D D T D D T T D D D D D D D D D D D D T D

4-Nov 8-Dec 30-Sep 16-Nov 6-Oct 16-Dec 4-Aug 2-Nov 2-Nov 18-Jul 15-Dec 8-Dec 22-Jul 2-Nov 2-Nov 24-Oct 17-Nov 27-Jul 5-Jul 19-Aug 15-Dec 20-Oct 7-Oct 3-Nov 16-Sep 12-Oct 3-Aug 2-Nov 20-Jul

2 3 1 1 1 2 3 4 3 1 2 1 1 5 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 97 97

Compiled for leading North American circuits at 5F-plus distances.

24

TOP 100 JUVENILE SPEED RATINGS OF 2018 Maddy's Last Dance Bye Bye J La Fuerza Alwaysmining Galilean Sneaking Out Qahira Game Winner Game Winner Del Mar May Vibrance Restless Rider Empire of War Complexity Mucho Gladiator King King for a Day Gunmetal Gray Looking At Bikinis Gray Attempt Watch Me Burn Preamble Roadster Vekoma Cajun Firecracker Galilean Bourbon War Eyeinthesky Shoobiedoobydoo

GP GP AQU LRL SA DMR DMR SA DMR DMR CD CD BEL SAR SAR TAM BEL DMR BEL FG ZIA KEE DMR BEL GP LRC AQU GP GP

8F 6F 6F 7F 7F 6F 6F 8.5F 7F 5F 8.5F 8.5F 8.5F 6F 6F 6F 8.5F 8F 6.5F 6F 6F 6F 6F 6F 7F 8F 9F 5F 5F

D D D D D D D D D D D D T D D D D D D D D D D D D D D T T

8-Dec 8-Dec 25-Nov 29-Dec 3-Nov 2-Sep 25-Nov 29-Sep 3-Sep 18-Jul 2-Nov 2-Nov 6-Oct 3-Sep 4-Aug 15-Dec 4-Oct 22-Aug 9-Sep 22-Dec 21-Nov 19-Oct 29-Jul 23-Sep 1-Sep 16-Dec 1-Dec 15-Dec 15-Dec

4 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 4 3 4

97 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96

Compiled for leading North American circuits at 5F-plus distances.

25

TOP 100 JUVENILE SPEED RATINGS OF 2018 Sassy Agnes Jackson Strike Silver Signalman Philosophy Not That Brady Kadens Courage A Bit of Both Feedback Bingwa Dunph Magic On Tap Sergei Prokofiev Istan Council Absentee Rowayton Mucho Gusto Direct Order Direct Order Manny Wah Coliseum Endorsed Haikal Come On Gerry Roadster Code of Honor Win Win Win Miss Auramet Towa

AQU GP CD CD FG AQU AQU GP SAR KEE CD DMR CD KEE PRX DMR LRC AQU PRX FG DMR SAR AQU GP DMR BEL LRL GP GP

6F 6F 5.5F 8.5F 5.5F 8F 6F 6F 6.5F 6F 7F 6.5F 5.5F 6F 7F 7F 8.5F 6F 6F 6F 7F 6F 6F 8.5F 7F 8F 7F 5F 5F

D D T D T D D D D D D D T D D D D D D D D D D D D D D T T

23-Nov 8-Dec 2-Nov 24-Nov 6-Dec 8-Dec 16-Dec 28-Sep 12-Aug 19-Oct 28-Oct 1-Sep 2-Nov 12-Oct 20-Oct 3-Sep 8-Dec 29-Nov 15-Oct 22-Dec 17-Nov 18-Aug 15-Dec 28-Dec 3-Sep 6-Oct 29-Dec 15-Dec 15-Dec

1 2 7 1 1 1 3 1 1 2 1 1 8 1 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 3 2 2 5 6

95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95

Compiled for leading North American circuits at 5F-plus distances.

26

JEREMY PLONK’S TOP 20 – 1/4/19 GAME WINNER

KINGLY

Trainer: Bob Baffert Winter Home: Santa Anita (Cal.) Quality & credentials hard to top right now.

Trainer: Bob Baffert Winter Home: Santa Anita (Cal.) Fabulous pedigree on Dec debut winner.

Trainer: Bob Baffert Winter Home: Santa Anita (Cal.) Summer talent has very high ceiling.

Trainer: Todd Pletcher Winter Home: Palm Beach Downs (Fla.) KJC 4th may be Pletcher’s best to run at 2.

Trainer: Butch Reid Winter Home: Gulfstream Park (Fla.) Best 2YO from Parx since Smarty Jones.

Trainer: Steve Asmussen Winter Home: Oaklawn Park (Ark.) Finisher could be top local on OP scene.

ROADSTER

MAXIMUS MISCHIEF IMPROBABLE

Trainer: Bob Baffert Winter Home: Santa Anita (Cal.) Traveled to win stakes; Oaklawn bound?

COLISEUM

Trainer: Bob Baffert Winter Home: Santa Anita (Cal.) Brilliant on pedigree & debut victory. Player.

MUCHO GUSTO

KING FOR A DAY LIMONITE

PLUS QUE PARFAIT

Trainer: Brendan Walsh Winter Home: Fair Grounds (La.) Versatile router major La Derby threat.

KNICKS GO

Trainer: Ben Colebrook Winter Home: Tampa Bay Downs (Fla.) Underappreciated sort disappointed KJC.

MOON COLONY

Trainer: Bob Baffert Winter Home: Santa Anita (Cal.) Decent drop-off from Improbable after Lrc.

Trainer: Mark Casse Winter Home: Casse Training Center (Fla.) Developing sort with good foundation.

Trainer: Shug McGaughey Winter Home: Payson Park (Fla.) Champagne 2nd working for Fla return.

Trainer: Steve Asmussen Winter Home: Fair Grounds (La.) Late arrival to 2YO scene w/ big pedigree.

CODE OF HONOR INSTAGRAND

Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer Winter Home: Santa Anita (Cal.) If healthy, he’s brilliant as any in the crop.

UNCLE BENNY

Trainer: Jason Servis Winter Home: Palm Meadows (Fla) Turf ace has a super turn of foot; dirt test?

SIGNALMAN

Trainer: Kenny McPeek Winter Home: Gulfstream Park (Fla.) KJC winner may fit best in FG long stretch.

GUN IT

NETWORK EFFECT

Trainer: Chad Brown Winter Home: Palm Meadows (Fla.) Nashua/Remsen 2nd could go GP/Aqu.

GALILEAN

Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer Winter Home: Santa Anita (Cal.) Cal-bred with buzz about him. Road trip?

STANDARD DEVIATION Trainer: Chad Brown Winter Home: Palm Meadows (Fla.) Troubled start in BCJ; must prove himself.

ON THE BRINK: Complexity, Mr. Money, Gunmetal Grey, Rowayton, Fog of War

Get top 20 updates every Friday at Countdowntothecrown.com!

27

28

FAMOUS FAMILIES 2019

 AWARD WINNER – Half-brother to Oscar Performance  COLISEUM – By Tapit out of Game Face  COUNT DI LUNA – By Liaison out of House of Fortune  COWBOY DIPLOMACY – Full brother to Monomoy Girl  ENDORSED – By Medaglia d’Oro out of Dance Card  GAME WINNER – Maternal grandson of Fleet Indian  GO AWAY – Half-brother to D’Funnybone  HAIKAL – Half-brother to Takaful  INVENTING BLAME – Maternal grandson of Miesque  JOHNY’S BOBBY – By Hard Spun out of Dream Empress  JUNGLE WARRIOR – By Animal Kingdom out of Harissa  KENTUCKY WILDCAT – By Tapit out of Better Lucky  KINGLY – By Tapit out of Justwhistledixie  LOOMIS – Half-brother to Street Sense  MO SPEED – Half-brother to Neck n’ Neck  MOON COLONY – Half-brother to Cavorting

29

FAMOUS FAMILIES 2019  MOUNT TRAVERS – By Speightstown out of Hot Summer  MY SIXTH SENSE – Full-brother to Sweet Reason  PHILOSPHY – Half-brother to Visionaire, Tara’s Tango  PICO ENTRY – Half-brother to Cherry Wine  ROADSTER – Half-brother to Ascend  SHIP OF THE LINE – By Red Rocks out of Fiji  SO ALIVE – Half-brother to Vino Rosso  SOUPER JACKPOT – Half-brother to Awesome Slew  SPINOFF – By Hard Spun out of Zaftig  STAGE LEFT – Half-brother to Midnight Bisou  TACITUS – By Tapit out of Close Hatches  WAR FILM – By Declaration of War out of Film Maker

ROADSTER – Half-brother to G1 M anhattan w inner Ascend

30

FOG OF WAR Grassy winner at Woodbine (left, in green) likely will get a chance to tackle the dirt at least once this spring.

CODE OF HONOR Can patient Shug McGaughey get this talented colt on the healthy path to success?

Get weekly scouting reports and updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

31

Horse

ABSOLUTELY AIDEN ADMIRAL LYNCH ADMIRE ALWAYSMINING ANOTHERTWISTAFATE

ARCHIDUST AVIE’S FLATTER A THREAD OF BLUE

AURELIUS MAXIMUS

AWARD WINNER AWESOME DJ B P ROCKET BACKTOHISROOTS BANKIT

BIG DRINK OF WATER

BIG SCOT DADDY BANO SOLO BLINDWILLIE McTELL BOLDOR BORRACHO BOURBON IN MAY BOURBON WAR BULLETIN CAIRO CAT CALL PAUL CAROTARI CASA CREED CAVE RUN CHASE THE GHOST CLASSY JOHN CODE OF HONOR COLISEUM COMPLEXITY CORNACCHIA

Trainer

Sire

Asmussen Stay Thirsty Navarro Super Saver Romans Cairo Prince Rubley Stay Thirsty Wright Scat Daddy Navarro Verrazano J Carroll Flatter McLaughlin Hard Spun C Brown PioneerofTheNile Lynch Ghostzapper Capuano Awesome Again Van Meter Curlin Terranova Mark Valeski Asmussen Central Banker Rivelli Soldat Puype Scat Daddy Asmussen Goldencents Rice Posse Asmussen Munnings Arnold Uncle Mo Pletcher More Than Ready Hennig Tapit Pletcher City Zip McPeek Cairo Prince Ja Servis Friesan Fire Stidham Artie Schiller Mott Jimmy Creed Harty Street Sense Stewart Ghostzapper Stewart Songandaprayer McGaughey Noble Mission Baffert Tapit C Brown Maclean’s Music Cox Tapit

Stars

*** ** *** ** ** ** ** *** *** *** ** *** *** *** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** *** *** *** *** ** ** *** *** *** **** **** **** ***

Horse Player NOW’s Notables

Spa debut win; back FG tab Dec Year-end GP grad debut sprint 9F CD grad working at GP now Rose to top of MD ranks late yr $360k buy blitzed GG Dec foes $300k buy cruised to 7F Dec win Top Q-Plate hope; 2x SW at WO Classy turf ALW winner at GP Out post-Champagne 4th; $625k GP dirt grad; ½ to Oscar Prfmc Stronach-bred rolled Dec 1M Lrl Improved 2nd out to win CD 1m Showed NY promise on turf/dirt NYB had solid Springboard rally Multiple SW synthetic sprinter Debut SA score; dam G2 winner Summer CD winner back FG tab Sprint-pedigreed NYB SW Sprinter for OP scene, distance?

Inconsistent in KY at 2; Tampa?

Grandson of turfy Soaring Softly Remsen 4th; dam a real talent Fast BC Juv turf sprint winner Iroquois winner sidelined fall Very productive 2YO; how far?

Likely T-sprinter; well-traveled Spa winner failed to progress 2d dam Sugar Shake; easy Tam FG route grad getting better Spa winner topped LA-bred stk Champagne 2nd; fever pre-BCJ Nov debut win; dam ace sprinter Champagne champ tired in BCJ Son of Great Hot talented FG win

Stars are listed 1-5 with 5 the highest in ratings conducted by handicapper Jeremy Plonk.

Be sure to check out our weekly scouting report updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

32

COUNT DI LUNA

Baffert COWBOY DIPLOMACY Cox CREDIT SWAP Stidham CRUEL INTENTION Baffert CURRENT Pletcher CUTTING HUMOR Pletcher DIRECT ORDER Ja Servis DORRANCE Trout DREAM MAKER M Casse DUELING Hollendorfer DUNPH Maker EMPIRE OF WAR Pletcher ENDORSED McLaughlin EPIC DREAMER Breen EXTRA HOPE R Mandella FAMILY BIZ Barker FARAWAY KITTEN Maker FEDERAL CASE Pletcher FED FEVER Weaver FINAL JEOPARDY Ja Servis FIVE STAR GENERAL Delacour FLUMINENSE Asmussen FLYING SCOTSMAN Hollendorfer FOG OF WAR C Brown FOLLOW THE DOG Montoya FORLOVEOFCOUNTRY DiVito FORTIN HILL C Brown FORTY UNDER J Englehart FROLIC MORE Stewart FROSTED ICE Moquett GALILEAN Hollendorfer GAME WINNER Baffert GARTER AND TIE Nicks GATES OF DAWN Jo Servis GEARHEAD Trombetta

Liaison *** Nov grad dam House of Fortune Tapizar *** Full to Monomoy Girl; OP drills Exchange Rate ** Good turfer; dam Fantastic Shirl Smiling Tiger ** 2-2 CA-bred likely stays sprints Curlin *** Rough start in KJC; turf talent First Samurai *** GP fall grad; ½ Irish You Well New Year’s Day ** ALW sprint win; Aqu winter bid?

Distorted Humor ** Well-bred RP debut win; OP next Tapit ** Grandson of Beautiful Pleasure Violence *** BCJ, Lrc Fut didn’t deliver goods Temple City ** Distance ?s after 2 stakes bids DeclarationofWar *** Turfer, but ½ to ’18 Test winner Medaglia d’Oro *** Dance Card’s baby out since Oct Orb *** Bel fall grad; some trouble at RP Shanghai Bobby *** Lrc Fut 3rd; romped route MSW Fed Biz ** Aqu grad among winter cast Kitten’s Joy ** Kee ALW winner get GP dirt try?

Gemologist *** Kee/GP wins; ex-Brisset in FL Fed Biz ** Cruised in GP off-the-turf MSW Street Sense ** Cruised in Dec GP sprint debut Distorted Humor ** Off-the-turf Big A minor SW More Than Ready *** Midpack Kee G1; nice damside English Channel *** G3 DeMille winner on grass War Front **** G1 WO winner bred all turf Bandbox * Solid MD local on Preak path Sky Mesa ** Upset CD dirt mile ALW late Nov MuchoMachoMan ** Out since smoking Bel MSW Oct Uncle Mo ** Pilgrim winner decent try BCJT More Than Ready ** Nibbler put it together CD fall Bellamy Road * Out since Sep NYB stakes W; OP? Uncle Mo **** CA-bred SW via top female fam Candy Ride ***** 3-time G1 winner 2YO champion Brooks ‘n Down *** Smooth Air winner on GP dirt Arch ** Parx Nov grad; winter shot Aqu? City Zip ** Off-turf GP grad likely a turfer

Stars are listed 1-5 with 5 the highest in ratings conducted by handicapper Jeremy Plonk.

Be sure to check out our weekly scouting report updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

34

GLADIATOR KING GLOBAL ACCESS GO AWAY GRAY ATTEMPT GRAY MAGICIAN GUM TREE LANE GUN IT GUNMETAL GRAY HAIKAL HARDAWAY

HARVEY WALLBANGER

HAWAIIAN NOISES HE’LL DO HENLEY’S JOY HOG CREEK HUSTLE HUSTLE UP IAN GLASS IMPROBABLE INCLUSIVE INSTAGRAND INVENTING BLAME INVIGOROUS ITS GONNA HURT JACK VAN BERG JACKSON JAPAN JEFE JERSEY AGENDA JOEVIA JOHNY’S BOBBY JOYFUL HEART JUMP FOR ALEX JUNGLE WARRIOR JUNKANOO JUST RIGHT

Mejia Trombetta Kenneally Fires Miller D’Amato Asmussen Hollendorfer McLaughlin Stidham McPeek Ward Proctor Maker V Foley Fincher Morley Baffert R Baker Hollendorfer Atfield Vera Koriner T Van Berg Pinchin O’Brien Desormeaux Asmussen Sacco Bauer Lynch Preciado Jerkens C Brown Pletcher

Curlin *** Inaugural rebound off Remsen Giant’sCauseway ** G3 Display 3rd bred all turf Scat Daddy ** ½ D’Funnybone; solid turf/dirt Graydar *** Wired Sugar Bowl; OP stretchout Graydar *** Smashing 1M Dmr fall stretchout He’s Had Enough ** Stretched out 2nd start Lrc grad Tapit **** Big FG MSW; dam ½ Saint Liam Exchange Rate **** Fits near top of California crop Daaher ** ½ G1 Takaful; workmanlike Aqu Lemon Drop Kid ** Tam route grad o/o Spellbound Congrats *** Steady grinder to fit trail trips Super Saver ** Kee grad may top Turfway cast Mark Valeski * FG turf most likely for Del grad Kitten’s Joy ** Rock-solid turf; prep try GP/TP? Overanalyze ** Acquitted stakes dud w/CD ALW Abstraction * Top NM-bred on Sunland path Hard Spun ** Turfer taking well to FG; dirt?

City Zip ***** G1 winner fem family Hard Spun Sky Mesa ** Display runner-up stamina sort Into Mischief **** Cali summer star shut down fall Blame *** Grandson of Miesque; WO grad Congrats ** Crushed Lrl 7F ALW; up for sale?

Violence ** MCL grad wired T-sprint stakes ToHonorAnd Serve ** CD MSW win, disappointed next Kantharos ** Sprint-type for minor GP stakes Galileo *** 10-pt prep winner in Ire in Sept Curlin * Maiden underachieved Jersey Town *** Sharp 2nd out CD win turf-to-dirt Shanghai Bobby ** Mth debut score; win-early ped Hard Spun ** Son of Dream Empress FG grad Kitten’s Joy ** With Anticipation 3rd; turf at GP Jump Start * No match 2nd to Call Paul at Prx Animal Kingdom ** Son of Harissa dull 5th Remsen Scat Daddy ** Out since troubled Kee turf ALW Into Mischief ** NYB may fit in Aqu winter scene

Stars are listed 1-5 with 5 the highest in ratings conducted by handicapper Jeremy Plonk.

Be sure to check out our weekly scouting report updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

35

KEESAWAH

Von Hemel KENTUCKY WILDCAT Albertrani KING FOR A DAY Pletcher KING FORD McPeek KING OF SPEED Bonde KINGLY Baffert KNICKS GO Colebrook LA FUERZA Pletcher LE GENERAL Nevin LEXITONIAN Pletcher LIMONITE Asmussen LONG RANGE TODDY Asmussen LOOKING AT BIKINIS C Brown LOOMIS Mandella LOUDER THAN BOMBS Fawkes LOVE POINT Wilkes LUCKY LEE Jo Servis MAGIC ON TAP Baffert MAGNA GRECIA O’Brien MAKE HAPPY (F) Shinkai MALPAIS Sharp MANNY WAH Catalano MARQUEE PRINCE Cox MAXIMUS MISCHIEF Reid MERCANTILE Asmussen METROPOL Baffert MIDNIGHT SWAP Desormeaux MIHOS Jerkens MIND CONTROL Sacco MO SPEED M Casse MOHAWK O’Brien MOON COLONY M Casse MOONSTER Romans MORE ICE Holledorfer MORE THAN A.P. Block

Astrology Tapit Uncle Mo Afleet Alex Jimmy Creed Tapit Paynter Flatter Lemon Drop Kid Speightstown Lemon Drop Kid Take Charge Indy Lookin At Lucky Bernardini Violence Point of Entry Flatter Tapit Invincible Spirit Square Eddie Hard Spun Will Take Charge Cairo Prince Into Mischief Fed Biz Shackleford Midnight Lute Cairo Prince Stay Thirsty Uncle Mo Galileo Uncle Mo Malibu Moon More Than Ready More Than Ready

** *** **** ** ** **** **** ** ** ** **** *** *** *** ** *** *** *** ** * ** *** *** ***** ** *** ** ** *** ** *** **** ** ** **

RP sprint ALW winner for OP set Better Lucky colt got better at 2 Strong KJC 4th from wide post 2-turn CD winner may fit at OP 2x turf SW failed in Lrc Futurity Justwhistledixie son sharp 12/1 Talented, outruns expectations Strong NYB sprinter; distance?

NYB can contend Big A winter Summer grinder didn’t progress Ky Jockey Club 3d strong OP/FG Key OP player after Springboard AWOL since Sept debut smasher Street Sense ½ bro; turf grad Versatile SW for early GP meet Turfer fam Bird Town, Birdstone Gets Fla shot after big Prx ALW Out since Dmr summer debut W 10-pt Doncaster prep W in Oct Full to Ralis; earned 12 pts Jpn Crushed FG sprinters in 2nd try Stakes vet at 2 on FG path; solid Contender at OP off CD, RP bids Remsen winner flashed at Prx RP debut winner; win-early dam Temp forced Dmr Nov stakes scr Turf groove GG; dam won Test Modest Aqu grad tests Fla next G1 Hopeful winner topped Jerome ½ $1M Neck n’ Neck; FG turf W 10-pt prep winner Doncaster ½ to $2M Cavorting a FG player Didn’t develop fall; GP wakeup?

Solid turf miler may stay grass Failed dirt try CD; Tampa next

Stars are listed 1-5 with 5 the highest in ratings conducted by handicapper Jeremy Plonk.

Be sure to check out our weekly scouting report updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

36

SIGNALMAN PLUS QUE PARFAIT 1-2 finishers in the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill will make a southern trek back to Louisville.

IMPROBABLE Los Alamitos Futurity champ kept trainer Bob Baffert highly probable in that December stakes.

Get weekly scouting reports and updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

37

MOST MISCHIEF MOUNT TRAVERS MR PAYTIENCE MR ANKENY MR. MONEY MUCH BETTER MUCHO MUCHO GUSTO

Calhoun Rice O’Neill Romans Calhoun Baffert Mott Baffert MUSKOKA WONDER M Casse MY SIXTH SENSE M Casse NACOGDOCHES Asmussen NASHTRICK Carroll NETWORK EFFECT C Brown NINTH STREET Asmussen NITROUS Asmussen NOT THAT BRADY Rodriguez NOVA LENDA Saito OCCAM’S RAZOR O’Neill OLIVER O’Neill OLYMPIC VILLAGE Trombetta ONE FLEW SOUTH Ward ONTHEWAYTONEVRLAND Ward OPRY Pletcher ORDER AND LAW Linder OUR BRAINTRUST C Lynch OUTSHINE Pletcher OVERDELIVER Pletcher PARTY WITH FRIENDS C Brown PHILOSOPHY M Casse PICO ENTRY Romans PLUS QUE PARFAIT Walsh POLE SETTER Cox POLICY McCarthy PREAMBLE Brisset PRESS VIRGINIA Jo Servis

Into Mischief Speightstown Paynter Into Mischief Goldencents PioneerofTheNile Blame MuchoMachoMan Into Mischief Street Sense Super Saver Hat Trick Mark Valeski Street Boss Tapit Big Brown Daiwa Major Square Eddie Papa Clem Congrats Giant’sCauseway No Nay Never DeclarationofWar Violence Freud Malibu Moon Overanalyze Speightstown Speightstown Point of Entry Point of Entry Take Charge Indy Strong Mandate Speightstown Blame

** ** ** *** **** *** *** **** ** *** ** ** **** ** *** *** * * ** *** ** ** *** ** ** ** ** *** *** ** **** *** * *** ***

Likely sprinter tries FG ranks Lrl 1M win; out of Comely champ Summer sprinter back on tab Out since splitting Kee G1 field BC Juvenile 4th heads to FG Turfer’s dam 2nd BC FM Sprint Saratoga flash on sidelines fall Lrc Fut 2nd w/ route pedigree Q-Plate contender out since Sep Full to G1 sprinter Sweet Reason Decent RP debut; dam ½ Cupid G1 Summer 3rd likely stays turf Nashua/Remsen 2d; modest ped Jean Lafitte SW fits at Sunland Impressed Spa, flat fall; FG now Pummled NYB MSW/stks in Dec Japan 20-pt prep winner in Dec Summer debut win; back tab SA Good CA-bred sprinter; how far?

Lrl ALW; dam ½ Lear’s Princess TP debut winner o/o sprint dam Speedy turf MSW win at GP; far?

G3 turf winner for Jeff Ruby?

Lrl Fut upsetter on turf via Parx Tremont champ solid Jerome; far?

May grad back on FL winter tab GP Dec debut win; modest ped T-Sprint win; granddam Oaks 2d Promising FG grad; ½ Visionaire ½ Prk 2d Cherry Wine; up/down Ky Jky Club runner-up fits at FG Consistent 2YO in KY; OP bound CA-bred sprint most likely path Son of Beautician went 2-2 in Ky 2-2 sprinting in PA; route ped

Stars are listed 1-5 with 5 the highest in ratings conducted by handicapper Jeremy Plonk.

Be sure to check out our weekly scouting report updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

38

MAXIMUS MISCHIEF Philadelphia’s best prospect since Smarty Jones stayed perfect in the Remsen.

INSTAGRAND 7-figure sales buy had west coast buzzing last summer. Will he develop at 3 after a freshening?

Get weekly scouting reports and updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

39

PROLIFERATE QUICK ENTRY REGALLY IRISH

Casse Wilkes Motion RESERVENOTATTAINED Yates RICKEY B Miyadi RIJEKA Baltas ROADSTER Baffert ROGUEISH Asmussen ROHRBACHER Stidham ROILAND Amoss ROWAYTON Hollendorfer ROYAL MARINE Bin Suroor ROYAL URN Nihei SALVATOR MUNDI McPeek SCRAP COPPER H Smith SEANOW Pletcher SEISMIC JOLT Fawkes SHANG Asmussen SHIP OF THE LINE Sisterson SIGALERT Sadler SIGNALMAN McPeek SIR TRUEBADOUR Asmussen SIR WINSTON M Casse SIX SHOOTER Hothus SOAP BUBBLE Calhoun SO ALIVE Pletcher SOLIFY Baker SOMBEYAY Pletcher SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN Maker SOUPER JACKPOT M Casse SPARKY VILLE Bonde SPIN LIGHTNING Mullins SPINOFF Pletcher SPIRIT ANIMAL C Brown SPORTS BETTING Ja Servis

DeclaratonofWar ** GP Dec turf debut W; sprint dam Point of Entry ** Out since Sept CD dirt sprint win Regal Ransom *** Stk-placed; dam ½ Irish War Cry Shanghai Bobby *** Summer GP riser; back Dec tab Richard’s Kid * 4-4 Cal-bred hasn’t faced stakes Roderic O’Conner ** Turfer showed well at Dmr/SA Quality Road ***** Dmr Fut 3rd working; ½ Ascend Into Mischief *** Impressive Nov FG debut sprint Hard Spun ** Wired Tampa dirt route MSW Dec SuccessfulAppeal *** KyJkyClb 5th won CD route ALW Into Mischief **** Multi G1 placings; out since Sept Raven’s Pass ** French 10-point prep winner Oct Kantharos * GP 2x winner outrun twice at CD Artie Schiller ** Bourbon 3rd bred turf; TP try?

Great Notion * Stakes-level MD-bred Lrl path Tiznow ** Spa turfer didn’t progress fall Kantharos * Sprint-bred player minor GP stk Shanghai Bobby ** Good La-bred o/o G3-plcd mare Red Rocks ** Son of Fiji bred for turf; FG now Street Sense *** Expected more fall stks; talent General Quarters **** Over-achiever a top ’18 juvenile More Than Ready ** G3 sprint winner out since Aug Awesome Again *** Display winner; good damside Trappe Shot ** Troubled SB Mile bid; OP or turf?

Twirling Candy ** Chased good ones pre-Dec FG W Super Saver *** ½ Vino Rosso; Kee grad, dull CD Tapizar *** Grey winner 2/2 WO; GP likely Into Mischief *** Tailed off bit after big summer Big Brown *** High-end turfer; Jeff Ruby-type Ghostzapper ** ½ Awesome Slew; Jerome wilt Candy Ride *** Stakes player for early CA preps Hard Spun ** Fringe player in CA stakes ranks Hard Spun *** Son of G1 Zaftig out since SarSpc Lemon Drop Kid ** Likely turfer out since Pilgrim Shanghai Bobby ** Well-meant Mth grad; FL winter

Stars are listed 1-5 with 5 the highest in ratings conducted by handicapper Jeremy Plonk.

Be sure to check out our weekly scouting report updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

40

LONG RANGE TODDY Springboard Mile winner closed the 2018 points chase at Remington Park with an eye towards Oaklawn.

MIND CONTROL Summer sizzler at Saratoga will try to melt the Aqueduct winter scene before testing tougher.

Get weekly scouting reports and updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

41

STAGE LEFT

Ward STANDARD DEVIATION C Brown STEAM ENGINE Cox STIRLING DRIVE Wolfson STRETFORD END Callaghan STRIKE SILVER M Casse STRONG WILL Rivelli STUPIFY Asmussen SUENO Desormeaux SUPER STEED L Jones SWORDSMAN Stidham SYNTHESIS Desormeaux TACITUS Mott TACKETT Stidham TAKEO SQUARED O’Neill TALE OF THE UNION Baffert TAP THE WIRE Dunham THE BOSS FACTOR Carroll THE CREEP O’Neill THE RIGHT PATH Goldberg THOMAS SHELBY Ward TIGHT TEN Asmusssen TIMMY M Orseno TIVAN Hollendorfer TOBACCO ROAD Asmussen TOM MANAGEMENT Stidham TONE BROKE Asmussen TOO MUCH JOHNNIE Jo Servis TOOTHLESS WONDER O’Neill TRACKSMITH Sharp TROPHY CHASER JC Avila TROY OUNCE Asmussen US NAVY CROSS C Brown UNCAPPED Walsh UNCLE BENNY Ja Servis

Congrats *** ½ Midnight Bisou solid sprinting Curlin **** Bad start BCJuv; near top of east Mineshaft ** NY-bred graduated Bel late Oct Verrazano ** Turf SW may get dirt shot at GP Will Take Charge *** Mdn chased 3 Baffert toughies Violence *** Sharp sprints turf/dirt as 2YO Strong Mandate * $775k buy out post-June dash W Twirling Candy ** Sprinter on Sun trail perhaps Atreides *** Dam won Bourbonette; GG SW Super Saver *** Lotta hype pre even Sugar Bowl First Samurai ** Wired FG dirt route MSW in Dec First Samurai *** Well-traveled/versatile sort at 2 Tapit *** Son of Close Hatches; Nov grad Limehouse *** WV-bred found home at FG now Square Eddie ** Consistent turfer; get dirt try?

Union Rags *** $925k; out since Dmr debut W Eddington * CA-bred SW out since Dmr Aug The Factor ** Flat late as 6-5 Display fav; far?

Twirling Candy ** Gold Rush 2d for El Camino Real Quality Road ** Aqu Nov winner; dam ½ Fed Biz Curlin ** TP grad, o/o turf mare; J Ruby?

Tapit *** Iroquis 2d troubled BCJ; FG path Morning Line ** Fits with GP turf set; turfy dam Indian Summer ** GG SW likely stays w/ CA-breds Quality Road ** Ellis Juv winner didn’t progress Lemon Drop Kid *** FG battle 9F turf W; dam G1 dirt Broken Vow *** Springboard Mile 4th improving Smarty Jones ** Romped in slow Prx MSW debut Street Boss * Early 2YO winner; back tab at SA Street Sense *** Versatile 2YO likely for FG stks Twirling Candy ** Street Sense runner-up via GPW Goldencents *** Strong CD 7F grad plays at OP Curlin *** Nashua 4th; ½ to turfer Recepta First Samurai ** CD grad likely sprinter at FG DeclarationofWar **** Loved on turf; 2nd dam Starrer

Stars are listed 1-5 with 5 the highest in ratings conducted by handicapper Jeremy Plonk.

Be sure to check out our weekly scouting report updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

42

UNION’S DESITY UNIONIZER VALUE PLAY VANGILDER VANTASTIC VEKOMA VETERAN’S BEACH VIVID VERSE WALLACE WAR FILM WELL DEFINED WHISKEY ECHO WIN WIN WIN ZENDEN ZYPTO

Avila Mott Callaghan Calhoun Eurton Weaver Donk Sharp Danner Asmussen O’Connell Asmussen Trombetta Barboza Maker

Union Rags Union Rags Algorithms Paynter Dialed In Candy Ride Big Brown Cross Traffic RunAwayandHide DeclarationofWar With Distinction Tiznow Hat Trick Fed Biz Bodemeister

** *** ** ** *** *** ** ** ** ** *** ** ** ** **

Smooth Air 3d good GP dirt form Sapling winner lost form in fall Smoked Lrc debut sprint in Dec ½ Shenandoah Queen; FG now DeMille 3d fits El Camino Real SW son of G1 sprinter; how far?

Lrl Fut 3d likely stays on turf Found groove in FG turf sprints Woodbine SW wintering Tampa Son of turfy Film Maker; Kee W FSS winner troubled trip BC; Tam Sanford 3rd, Elp Juv 2nd shelved 2-2 Lrl sprinting; get Aqu shot?

Buffalo Man SW bred to sprint Turfway player for Jeff Ruby

Stars are listed 1-5 with 5 the highest in ratings conducted by handicapper Jeremy Plonk.

Be sure to check out our weekly scouting report updates at Countdowntothecrown.com!

es Total Stak Purses of n $2.5 Millio

2019 Winter/Spring Meet January 1 - May 6 laurelpark.com

2019 Triple Crown Prep Season Schedule Stakes Jerome Mucho Macho Man Sham Lecomte California Derby Smarty Jones Riley Allison Derby Withers Holy Bull Robert B. Lewis Sam F. Davis San Vicente Risen Star El Camino Real Derby Miracle Wood Hyacinth Southwest Cal Cup Derby Mine That Bird Derby Patton Fountain of Youth Condition Stakes Gotham Tampa Bay Derby San Felipe Jeff Ruby Rebel Private Terms Louisiana Derby Gazebo Sunland Derby UAE Derby Florida Derby Fukuryu

Track Aqueduct Gulfstream Park Santa Anita Park Fair Grounds Golden Gate Fields Oaklawn Park Sunland Park Aqueduct Gulfstream Park Santa Anita Park Tampa Bay Downs Santa Anita Park Fair Grounds Golden Gate Fields Laurel Park Tokyo Racecourse Oaklawn Park Santa Anita Sunland Park Dundalk (Ire) Gulfstream Park Kempton (GB) Aqueduct Tampa Bay Downs Santa Anita Park Turfway Park Oaklawn Park Laurel Park Fair Grounds Oaklawn Park Sunland Park Meydan Racecourse Gulfstream Park Nakayama

Date Jan 1 Jan 5 Jan 5 Jan 19 Jan 19 Jan 25 Jan 27 Feb 2 Feb 2 Feb 2 Feb 9 Feb 10 Feb 16 Feb 16 Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb 18 Feb 24 Mar 1 Mar 2 Mar 6 Mar 9 Mar 9 Mar 9 Mar 9 Mar 16 Mar 16 Mar 23 Mar 23 Mar 24 Mar 30 Mar 30 Mar 31

KD Points 10-4-2-1 0-0-0-0 10-4-2-1 10-4-2-1 0-0-0-0 10-4-2-1 0-0-0-0 10-4-2-1 10-4-2-1 10-4-2-1 10-4-2-1 0-0-0-0 50-20-10-5 10-4-2-1 (Prk W&I) 0-0-0-0 30-12-6-3 10-4-2-1 0-0-0-0 0-0-0-0 20-8-4-2 50-20-10-5 20-8-4-2 50-20-10-5 50-20-10-5 50-20-10-5 20-8-4-2 50-20-10-5 0-0-0-0 100-40-20-10 0-0-0-0 50-20-10-5 100-40-20-10 100-40-20-10 40-16-8-4

44

2019 Triple Crown Prep Season Schedule Wood Memorial Blue Grass Santa Anita Derby Cardinal Condition Arkansas Derby Lexington Federico Tesio Bachelor Kentucky Derby Oaklawn Invitational Peter Pan Preakness Belmont Stakes

Aqueduct Keeneland Santa Anita Park Chelmsford City Oaklawn Park Keeneland Laurel Oaklawn Park Churchill Downs Oaklawn Park Belmont Park Pimlico Racecourse Belmont Park

Apr 6 Apr 6 Apr 6 Apr 11 Apr 13 Apr 13 Apr 20 Apr 27 May 4 May 4 May 11 May 18 Jun 8

45

100-40-20-10 100-40-20-10 100-40-20-10 30-12-6-3 100-40-20-10 20-8-4-2 0-0-0-0 (Prk W&I) 0-0-0-0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

 El Camino Real Derby, Federico Tesio Stakes are Preakness Win & You’re In Qualifiers.

46

SHAM STAKES January 5, 2019

Derby points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: California’s first route prep leading up to the Santa Anita Derby, the Sham has averaged 6 starters per race the last 7 years. An earlier date for the Los Alamitos Futurity in recent years has given those alumni an extra week spacing, and the cancellation of the Delta Downs Jackpot has kept some west coast horses from exiting the region.

Though the Sham inaugurated in 2001, it has been a January mile since 2011 after once being a 9furlong test later in the meet. The race has had shorter-distance success with eventual Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winners Tapizar and Goldencents among its alumni, as well as BC Sprint champ Secret Circle.

The Sham is named for the 1973 3YO who ran 2nd to Secretariat in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: McKinzie, sent away as the 1-5 favorite, dominated by 3 ½ lengths in his follow-up to taking the Los Al Futurity. The Bob Baffert trainee beat 5 rivals, including My Boy Jack, who would go on to win the G3 Southwest & G3 Lexington.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: A hock injury in late March put McKinzie on the shelf, giving way to stablemate Justify’s Triple Crown ascent. From the Sham, My Boy Jack was last year’s only Crown participant, 5th in the Ky Derby.

Recent Sham reps:

K y Derby : Goldencents (17th, ’13), Gormley (9th, ’17), My Boy Jack (5th, ’18).

Preakness : Goldencents (5th, ’13), Collected (10th, ’16), Laoban (6th, ’16), Term of Art (10th, ’17)

Belm ont : Gormley (4th, ’17)

47

’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Sham Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) McKinzie Smith Baffert 104 Gormley Espinoza Shirreffs 102 Collected M. Garcia Baffert 89 Calculator Trujillo Miller 100 Midnight Hawk Smith Baffert 97 Goldencents Krigger O’Neill 93 Out of Bounds Gomez Harty 105 Tapizar Gomez Asmussen 103 Alphie’s Bet Solis Barba 94 The Pamplemousse Solis Canani 97

’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09

Winning Preps for Last 10 Sham Stakes Winners McKinzie 2nd Los Al CashCall Futurity (Lrc) Gormley 7th Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (SA) Collected 3rd Cecil B. DeMille (Dmr) Calculator 2nd FrontRunner (SA) Midnight Hawk 1st Maiden (Hol/BHP) Goldencents 1st Delta Jackpot (DeD) Out of Bounds 1st Maiden (Hol/BHP) Tapizar 1st Maiden (CD) Alphie’s Bet 1st Maiden (SA) The Pamplemousse 1st San Rafael (SA)

INSIDE THE SHAM STAKES: Favorites have dominated the Sham of late with 6 straight winners returning $5.20 or less with 4 of those odds-on. Horses within 2 lengths of the lead after the first half-mile have won 8 straight. 10 of last 14 Sham winners exited prep victories (4 of last 9 exiting maiden breakers). Trainer Bob Baffert has 3 wins & 4 seconds in the past 6 editions in which he’s had a starter (won last year with McKinzie).

48

LECOMTE STAKES January 19, 2019

Derby points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: At a mile and 70 yards in distance, the Lecomte serves as a logical rehearsal for the Risen Star (1-1/16 miles) en route to the Louisiana Derby (1-1/8 miles). For many young horses, this will be their first test in a route race.

Oaklawn has pushed back the date of the Smarty Jones Stakes this year, giving the Lecomte the region’s first salvo. The Lecomte holds an edge over that race in that this one is graded and the Smarty Jones is listed. Both covet middle-distance horses around 2 turns, but the stretch run here at FG is 1,346 feet compared to just 825 at OP using their sixteenthpole finish line.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: California shipper Instilled Regard topped a massive field of 13 as the second choice, pulling 3 ¾ lengths clear of 6-5 local favorite Principe Guillherme. The winner would go

on to run 4th in the Kentucky Derby. Trainer Steve Asmussen wound up with the 2-3-4 finishers in this race. Asmussen also was 2nd here in ’17 with Untrapped.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Oxbow is the only Lecomte alum in the last decade to find Triple Crown success, winning the 2013 Preakness. TC starters since ’07:

K y Derby : Instilled Regard (4th,

’18), Lone Sailor (8th, ’18), Untrapped (12th, ’17), Destin (6th, ’16) Tom Tom (8th, ’16), Tom’s Ready (12th), War Story (16th, ’15), Vicar’s In Trouble (19th, ’14), Golden Soul (2nd, ’13), Oxbow (6th, ’13), Friesan Fire (18th, ’09), Hard Spun (2nd, ’07),

Preakness : Lone Sailor (5th, ’18),

Oxbow (1st, ’13), Friesan Fire (10th, ‘09), Hard Spun (3rd, ’07)

Belm ont : Destin (2nd, ’16), Hard Spun (4th, ’07)

49

’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Lecomte Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) Instilled Regard Castellano Hollendorfer 96 Guest Suite Albarado Howard 93 Mo Tom Lanerie Amoss 94 International Star Mena Maker 94 Vicar’s In Trouble Napravnik Maker 88 Oxbow Court Lukas 94 Mr Bowling Albarado L. Jones 95 Wilkinson Gomez Howard 92 Ron the Greek Graham Amoss 98 Friesan Fire Saez L. Jones 97

’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09

Winning Preps for Last 10 Lecomte Stakes Winners Instilled Regard 2nd Lrc CashCall Futurity (Lrc) Guest Suite 1st Allowance (CD) Mo Tom 3rd Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (CD) International Star 4th Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (CD) Vicar’s In Trouble 1st Maiden (FG) Oxbow 4th CashCall Futurity (BHP) Mr Bowling 3rd Iroquois Stakes (CD) Wilkinson 3rd Allowance (FG) Ron the Greek 4th Springboard Mile (RP) Friesan Fire 2nd Allowance (FG)

INSIDE THE LECOMTE STAKES: The Los Al Futurity and Kentucky Jockey Club have produced 4 of the last 6 winners of the Lecomte, and we’ve seen 6 of the last 9 winners exit stakes attempts. Prior to last year, 3 straight Lecomte winners had made their 3YO debuts following Churchill Downs fall meet starts. 15 of the last 17 Lecomte winners were 5-1 or less, including the race’s top two choices flipped in the exacta last year.

50

SMARTY JONES STAKES January 25, 2019

Derby points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: Pushed back more than a week on the schedule this year, the Smarty Jones will follow the Grade 3 Lecomte at Fair Grounds on the regional calendar. The Smarty Jones kicks off Oaklawn’s highly successful, 4-race series for 3YOs. The 2-turn mile utilizes the sixteenth pole finish line (825-ft stretch run), but deep closers Far Right, Caleb’s Posse, Will Take Charge and Flat Out all dot the winner’s roll call.

The Smarty Jones is named for the 2004 Kentucky Derby/Preakness winner who rose to stardom via Oaklawn’s series of preps. He earned a $5 million Centennial bonus during the track’s 100th season for his historic efforts.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Bob Baffert’s Mourinho came east to post a dominant win on the front end as the 3-5 favorite. The field of 5 would have no reps in the Triple Crown series, however.

Mourinho became the 2nd straight heavy chalk to wire the Smarty Jones (Uncontested ’17 at 6-5).

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: The past 3 editions have not produced a TC series starter.

K y Derby : Mr. Z (13th, ’15), Far

Right (15th, ’15), Will Take Charge (8th, ’13), Optimizer (11th, ’12), Archarcharch (dnf, ’11)

Preakness : Mr. Z (5th, ’15), Will

Take Charge (7th, ’13), Optimizer (6th, ’12)

Belm ont : Will Take Charge (10th, ’13), Optimizer (10th, ’12)

51

’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Smarty Jones Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Mourinho Van Dyke Baffert Uncontested Hill Catalano Discreetness Court Fires Far Right Smith Moquett Tanzanite Cat Arroyo Autrey Will Take Charge Court Lukas Junebugred Bravo Hobby Caleb’s Posse Razo DK Von Hemel Dryfly Borel Whiting Flat Out Julio Garcia Dickey

’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09

Winning Preps for Smarty Jones Winners Mourinho 2nd Bob Hope (Dmr) Uncontested 4th Kentucky Jockey Club (CD) Discreetness 1st Springboard Mile (RP) Far Right 3rd Delta Downs Jackpot (DeD) Tanzanite Cat 1st Maiden (FG) Will Take Charge 2nd Springboard Mile (RP) Junebugred 1st Maiden (Aqu) Caleb’s Posse 7th Springboard Mile (RP) Dryfly 1st Allowance (CD) Flat Out 1st Maiden (FG)

Figure) 99 97 92 92 92 93 91 85 95 96

INSIDE THE SMARTY JONES STAKES: Remington Park’s Springboard Mile in December has been a strong launching pad for the Smarty Jones, delivering the 2011, 2013 and 2016 winners as well as the 2014, 2015 and 2017 runner-ups. Favorites own a 10: 4-0-4 record in the Smarty Jones following back-to-back winners. 5 of the last 6 Smarty Jones winners, including 4 straight, have exited stakes bids. 8 of the last 9 winners of this race last prepped at 7 furlongs or longer (only Tanzanite Cat ran shorter than 7F most recently – 5 1/2F).

52

WITHERS STAKES February 2, 2019

Derby points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY

KEY INGREDIENTS: NYRA’s path includes the Jerome, Withers, Gotham and Wood Memorial. This second leg moved on the stakes schedule 7 years ago after several years as an April stakes and a year in asylum (‘11).

The Withers field has averaged just over 6 starters per race since moving to early season.

Last year the distance increased to 1-1/8 miles for the first time. This makes for a curious position on the prep path as horses leaving this race will either be asked to cut back in trip for the Gotham, or await the same-distance Wood.

Trainers Todd Pletcher and Kiaran McLaughlin have combined to win 7 of the last 11 editions of the Withers. They have supported the race no matter where it falls on the calendar.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: 6-5 favorite Avery Island held clear of Firenze Fire for a popular public return of just $5.60 on the $1 exacta. Todd Pletcher started 3 of the 5 entrants, but finished 3rd, 4th, 5th in a rarity. Avery Island was injured in training toward the Louisiana Derby and did not return.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: When in April, the Withers boasted horses like Bernardini and Scrappy T with strong Preakness showings.

In 2012-’18, as a winter prep:

Ky Derby: Firenze Fire (11th, ’18),

J Boys Echo (10th, ’17), Tencendur (17th, ’15), Samraat (5th, ’14), Uncle Sigh (14th, ’13), Alpha (12th, ’12), Revolutionary (3rd, ’13).

Preakness: none.

Belmont: J Boys Echo (9th, ’17)

Samraat (6th, ’14), Revolutionary (5th, ’13).

53 HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Withers Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’18 Avery Island Bravo McLaughlin 94 ’17 El Areeb McCarthy Lynch 99 ’16 Sunny Ridge Franco Ja Servis 92 ’15 Far From Over Franco Pletcher 96 ’14 Samraat J. Ortiz Violette 99 ’13 Revolutionary Castellano Pletcher 96 ’12 Alpha Dominguez McLaughlin 100 ’10 Afleet Again Mariano Reid 109 ’09 Mr. Fantasy Migliore McLaughlin 103 ’08 Harlem Rocker Coa Pletcher 96 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’10 ’09 ’08

Winning Preps for Last 10 Withers Stakes Winners Avery Island 2nd Remsen (Aqu) El Areeb 1st Jerome (Aqu) Sunny Ridge 2nd Delta Downs Jackpot (DeD) Far From Over 1st Maiden (Aqu) Samraat 1st Damon Runyon (Aqu) Revolutionary 1st Maiden (Aqu) Alpha 1st Count Fleet (Aqu) Afleet Again 10th Gotham (Aqu) Mr. Fantasy 3rd Gotham (Aqu) Harlem Rocker 1st Allowance (GP)

INSIDE THE WITHERS STAKES: Heavy favorites have been the recent norm as its 7 winter-time editions have had chalks at 1-5, 1-5, 1-2, 3-5, 3-5, 6-5 and 6-5. Chalks El Areeb and Avery Island have scored the last 2. Since moving to January, none of its 7 editions have been won wire to wire. 7 straight Withers winners exited a 12 finish in their most recent prep, 5 of those coming in stakes tune-ups.

HOLY BULL

54

February 2, 2019

Derby points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: The first of 3 graded dirt routes on the Gulfstream trail, the Holy Bull offers the first 2-turn test for the circuit. Over the past decade, this race has been moved several times in distance and date.

It’s morphed into popular 3YO return date for star juveniles, many away since the Breeders’ Cup. Notable returnees here in recent years include champions Classic Empire, Shanghai Bobby and Hansen, as well as Cairo Prince and Mohaymen. With a short run to the first turn and a sixteenth-pole finish line, early speed and post position can be important factors.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Eventual Florida Derby winner and Kentucky Derby 3rd-place finisher Audible made a successful stakes debut with a 5-1/2 length romp.

The field of 9 had filler, but

included G2 Ky Jockey Club 1-2 finishers Enticed and Tiz Mischief, as well as G1 Breeders’ Futurity winner Free Drop Billy.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Since its move to earlier in the meet, Holy Bull alumni have yet to win in TC. Several top-4 finishes have occurred in classics during that span, however (2009-’18):

K y Derby : Audible (3rd, ’18),

Classic Empire (4th, ’17), Mohaymen (4th, ’16), Frosted (4th, ’15), Mucho Macho Man (3rd, ’11).

Preakness : Classic Empire (2nd,

’17), Itsmyluckyday (2nd, ’13), Dialed In (4th, ’11), Jackson Bend (3rd, ’10).

Belm ont : Irish War Cry (2nd, ’17),

Frosted (2nd, ’15), Keen Ice (3rd, ’15), Wicked Strong (4th, ’14).

55 HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Holy Bull Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’18 Audible Castellano Pletcher 105 ’17 Irish War Cry Rosario Motion 102 ’16 Mohaymen Alvarado McLaughlin 97 ’15 Upstart J. Ortiz Violette 105 ’14 Cairo Prince L. Saez McLaughlin 98 ’13 Itsmyluckyday Trujillo Plesa 106 ’12 Algorithms Castellano Pletcher 105 ’11 Dialed In Leparoux Zito 104 ’10 Winslow Homer Dominguez T. Dutrow 95 ’09 Saratoga Sinner Leparoux Kenneally 102 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09

Winning Preps for Last 10 Holy Bull Stakes Winners Audible 1st Allowance (Aqu) Irish War Cry 1st Marylander (Lrl) Mohaymen 1st Remsen (Aqu) Upstart 3rd Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (SA) Cairo Prince 2nd Remsen (Aqu) Itsmyluckyday 1st Gulfstream Derby (GP) Algorithms 1st Allowance (GP) Dialed In 1st Maiden (CD) Winslow Homer 1st Allowance (Pha/Prx) Saratoga Sinner 1st Maiden (GP)

INSIDE THE HOLY BULL STAKES: 13 straight winners exit Top-3 finishes in their most-recent prep, including 11 last-out winners. The last 6 years – when the race has been 1-1/16 miles around 2 turns – all 6 winners were within 2 lengths of the lead after the opening half-mile. Only 3 of the 18 trifecta placings the past 6 years have been secured by horses who had exited preps at the local GP meet – 15 were shippers/layoff types.

56

LEWIS MEMORIAL February 2, 2019

Derby points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: Formerly the Santa Catalina Stakes, the Lewis Memorial follows the Sham on the SoCal path as the second of four major preps leading into the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby. Its 1-1/16 miles distance and spacing from December’s G1 Los Al Futurity and November’s G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile should make it an effective starting out point, but its impact has been a fraction of March’s San Felipe at the same trip. Early speed has been very effective in this race with smaller field sizes most often.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: A field of 9 lacked any real starpower going in, or coming out, as Lombo wired the field at 8-1 to post his second victory in 14 days.

Lombo went on to disappoint in the

San Felipe next out and none of these runners made their way to the Triple Crown series.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Ferdinand and I’ll Have Another are the most recognizable winners of this prep to taste spring success.

The 2015 edition did include Kentucky Derby 2-3 finishers Firing Line and Dortmund. From 19932018, its TC impact has been fleeting. Top performances include:

K y Derby : Firing Line (2nd, ’15),

Dortmund (3rd, ’15), I’ll Have Another (1st, ’12), Pioneeerof The Nile (2nd, ’08), Charismatic (1st, ’99)

Preakness : I’ll Have Another (1st,

’12), Charismatic (1st, ’99)

Belm ont : None.

57 Last 10 Lewis Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09

Lombo Royal Mo Mor Spirit Dortmund Candy Boy Flashback I’ll Have Another Anthony’s Cross Caracortado Pioneerof the Nile

Pratt Espinoza Stevens Garcia Stevens Leparoux Gutierrez Rosario Atkinson Gomez

Pender Shirreffs Baffert Baffert Sadler Baffert O’Neill Harty Machowsky Baffert

88 95 99 101 97 95 102 93 96 (s) 96 (s)

’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09

Winning Preps for Last 10 Lewis Stakes Winners Lombo 1st Maiden (SA) Royal Mo 1st Maiden (Dmr) Mor Spirit 1st Los Alamitos Futurity (Lrc) Dortmund 1st Los Alamitos Futurity (Lrc) Candy Boy 2nd CashCall Futurity (BHP/Hol) Flashback 1st Maiden (BHP/Hol) I’ll Have Another 6th Hopeful (SAR) Anthony’s Cross 3rd Sham (SA) Caracortado 1st Cal Breeders Champ (SA) Pioneerof the Nile 1st CashCall Futurity (Hol)

INSIDE THE LEWIS MEMORIAL STAKES: You’re either looking at a maiden class riser or an alumnus of the Los Alamitos Futurity. That combo has produced 6 straight Lewis winners. 8 of the last 11 winners exited prep victories (including 4 straight), with the last 6 coming out of Top-2 finishes. Bob Baffert has not entered a strong hand in this race the past 2 years after winning it 3 times in a 4-year span from 2013-’16. The race is named for the late Bob Lewis, who, with his wife, Beverly, raced and campaigned such stalwarts as Silver Charm.

58

SAN VICENTE STAKES February 10, 2019

Derby points: none STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: As a 7-furlong sprint, the San Vicente is not part of the Kentucky Derby points chase officially. Still, its impact on the west coast path can’t be ignored. You only have to go back to 2016 to recall a Nyquist-Exaggerator preview of the eventual Kentucky Derby exacta and Derby-Preakness sweep.

The San Vicente most often is a comeback spot for a 2YO stakes horse or a rise in class for a maiden winner. We rarely see alumni turn back from the Sham and Lewis, the meet’s early season routes. Field size has been an issue with 9 straight editions having 7 or less starters (6 in 2017). Trainers Doug O’Neill, Bob Baffert and John Sadler have teamed to win 9 of the last 10 San Vicentes. Baffert has 9 wins in this race since 1997.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: 2-5 chalk Ax Man proved more sizzle than steak off a sharp maiden score, fading after a duel.

Kanthaka rallied at 11-1 to get a perfectly set-up victory.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Since 2004, here’s the run-down:

Ky Derby: Battle of Midway (3rd,

’17), Nyquist (1st, ’16), Exaggerator (2nd, ’16), Creative Cause (5th, ’12), Sidney’s Candy (17th, ’10), Sinister Minister (16th, ’06), Don’t Get Mad (4th, ’05), Imperialism (3rd, ‘04).

Preakness: Exaggerator (1st, ’16),

Nyquist (3rd, ’16), Creative Cause (3rd, ’12), Sway Away (12th, ’11), Imperialism (5th, ’04).

Belmont: Exaggerator (11th,’16).

59 HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 San Vicente Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’18 Kanthaka Prat Hollendorfer 99 ’17 Iliad Prat O’Neill 97 ’16 Nyquist Gutierrez O’Neill 103 ’15 Lord Nelson Bejarano Baffert 98 ’14 Kobe’s Back Rosario Sadler 97 ’13 Shakin It Up Flores Baffert 92 ’12 Drill Garcia Baffert 103 ’11 The Factor Garcia Baffert 104 ’10 Sidney’s Candy Talamo Sadler 95 ’09 Evita Argentina Gomez Sadler 93 Winning Preps for Last 10 San Vicente Stakes Winners ’18 Kanthaka 1st Maiden (SA) ’17 Iliad 1st Maiden (Lrc) ’16 Nyquist 1st Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (Kee) ’15 Lord Nelson 5th Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (CD) ’14 Kobe’s Back 10th CashCall Futurity (BHP/Hol) ’13 Shakin It Up 3rd Hollywood Prevue (BHP/Hol) ’12 Drill 5th San Pedro (SA) ’11 The Factor 1st Maiden (SA) ’10 Sidney’s Candy 4th Allowance (SA) ’09 Evita Argentina 2nd Santa Ynez (SA) INSIDE THE SAN VICENTE STAKES: This has been a tough race to get a line on. After a run of stakes rebounders finding success, we’ve now had a pair of consecutive maiden breakers rise in class to score repeat wins. Kanthaka was the first San Vicente winner in 6 years who had already run at the Santa Anita meet.

Note that 2 of the last 4 BC Juvenile winners have returned in the San Vicente (Texas Red, ‘2nd, ’15) and Nyquist (1st, ’16).

STAY UNTIL MAY January 25-May 4

WHERE PURSES CONTINUE TO RISE $550,000 Average Daily Purses MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHTS–$77,000 | OPEN ALLOWANCE RACES–$78,000 JANUARY 25

$150,000 SMARTY JONES*

3 YO

1M

JANUARY 26

$100,000 AMERICAN BEAUTY

4 YO & UP, F & M

6F

FEBRUARY 2

$125,000 MARTHA WASHINGTON

3 YO F

1M

FEBRUARY 9

$100,000 KING COTTON

4 YO & UP

6F

FEBRUARY 16

$100,000 DIXIE BELLE

3 YO F

6F

FEBRUARY 18

$200,000 BAYAKOA (GR. 3)

4 YO & UP, F & M

1 1/16 M

FEBRUARY 18

$500,000 RAZORBACK HANDICAP (GR. 3)

4 YO & UP

1 1/16 M

FEBRUARY 18

$500,000 SOUTHWEST (GR. 3)*

3 YO

1 1/16 M

FEBRUARY 23

$100,000 DOWNTHEDUSTYROAD BREEDERS’

3 YO & UP, F & M (AR) 6 F

MARCH 2

$100,000 SPRING FEVER

4 YO & UP, F & M

5 1/2 F

MARCH 9

$150,000 HOT SPRINGS

4 YO & UP

6F

MARCH 9

$200,000 HONEYBEE (GR. 3)

3 YO F

1 1/16 M

MARCH 16

$300,000 ESSEX HANDICAP

4 YO & UP

1 1/16 M

MARCH 16

$350,000 AZERI (GR. 2)

4 YO & UP, F & M

1 1/16 M

MARCH 16

$1,000,000 REBEL (GR. 2)*

3 YO

1 1/16 M

MARCH 23

$100,000 NODOUBLE BREEDERS’

3 YO & UP (AR)

6F

MARCH 23

$125,000 GAZEBO

3 YO

6F

MARCH 30

$150,000 PURPLE MARTIN

3 YO F

6F

APRIL 6

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4 YO & UP, F & M

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3 YO F

1 1/16 M

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4 YO & UP

6F

APRIL 13

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4 YO & UP

1 1/8 M

APRIL 13

$1,000,000 ARKANSAS DERBY (GR. 1)*

3 YO

1 1/8 M

APRIL 14

$700,000 APPLE BLOSSOM HANDICAP (GR. 1)

4 YO & UP, F & M

1 1/16M

APRIL 20

$100,00O RAINBOW

3 YO (AR)

6F

APRIL 20

$100,000 RAINBOW MISS

3 YO F (AR)

6F

APRIL 27

$150,000 BACHELOR

3 YO

MAY 3

$200,000 THE OAKLAWN MILE

MAY 4 MAY 4

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$200,000 ARKANSAS BREEDERS’ CHAMPIONSHIP

3 YO & UP (AR)

1 1/16 M

$250,000 THE OAKLAWN INVITATIONAL

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1 1/8 M

For more information please contact: Oaklawn Racing Office racing@oaklawn.com | 501-701-5570

1-800-OAKLAWN • OAKLAWN.COM | JANUARY 25−MAY 4 *Kentucky Derby Point Race

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RISEN STAR STAKES February 16, 2019

Derby points: 50-20-10-5 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: Moved up a week earlier on the calendar this year, the Risen Star continues on as America’s first 50point prep on the Ky Derby qualifying series. It’s 4 weeks after the Lecomte and 5 weeks prior to the Louisiana Derby, splitting the 2 in distance at 1-1/16 miles.

The Risen Star goes 2 days before Oaklawn’s G3 Southwest in the region, competing for similar horses. But field size has been no issue with this race, averaging about 10 starters per race over the last decade.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: A wild finish and even wilder tote saw 21-1 shot Bravazo nose out 41-1 bomber Snapper Sinclair.

Lecomte winner and 7-5 favorite

Instilled Regard was a flat fourth.

The Risen Star would see its winner and beaten favorite both come back to land superfecta finishes in the Triple Crown.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: This race has produced a Triple Crown series Top-3 finisher in 5 of the last 6 years – and had last year’s Derby 4th-place performer Instilled Regard. The recent tally:

K y Derby : Gun Runner (3rd, ’16),

Commanding Curve (2nd, ’14), Golden Soul (2nd, ’13)

Preakness : Bravazo (2nd, ’18),

Oxbow (1st, ’13), Mylute (3rd, ’13)

Belm ont : Keen Ice (3rd, ’15),

Palace Malice (1st, ’13), Oxbow (2nd, ’13).

63 HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Risen Star Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’18 Bravazo Mena Lukas 98 ’17 Girvin Hernandez Sharp 98 ’16 Gun Runner Geroux Asmussen 97 ’15 International Star Mena Maker 97 ’14 Intense Holiday Smith Pletcher 99 ’13 Ive Struck a Nerve Graham Desormeaux 99 ’12 El Padrino Castellano Pletcher 101 ’11 Mucho Macho Man Maragh Ritvo 97 ’10 Discreetly Mine Castellano Pletcher 97 ’09 Friesan Fire G. Saez L. Jones 100 Winning Preps for Last 10 Risen Star Stakes Winners ’18 Bravazo 1st Allowance (OP) ’17 Girvin 2nd Keith Gee Memorial (FG) ’16 Gun Runner 4th Kentucky Jockey Club (CD) ’15 International Star 1st Lecomte (FG) ’14 Intense Holiday 3rd Holy Bull (GP) ’13 Ive Struck a Nerve 4th Lecomte (FG) ’12 El Padrino 1st Allowance (GP) ’11 Mucho Macho Man 4th Holy Bull (GP) ’10 Discreetly Mine 4th Spectacular Bid (GP) ’09 Friesan Fire 1st Lecomte (FG) INSIDE THE RISEN STAR STAKES: The Risen Star winning BRIS speed rating has been remarkably consistent between 97-99 in 8 of the last 9 years. It’s very notable that the last horse to win the Risen Star while rising in class from a Fair Grounds maiden or allowance was Gradepoint in ’04. The last California-based winner was Notional in 2007 for Doug O’Neill. The only season-debuting Risen Star winner this decade was the great Gun Runner in 2016.

64

EL CAMINO REAL DERBY February 16, 2019

Derby points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: Downgraded to listed status in 2018 and its purse cut to $100,000, Northern California’s top stakes en route to the Triple Crown continues to struggle with relevance. This year they’ll add Preakness Win & You’re In status as a carrot. It has spent the past decade now on synthetic, and is one of only 2 official Kentucky Derby points races in America on a non-dirt surface.The El Camino Real typically gets its field from the local California Derby, from class risers at the meet and a smattering of second-tier Santa Anita sophomores. It’s among the earliest 1-1/8 miles distance tests of the season.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Paved made history as the first filly ever to win the El Camino Real Derby. She’d go on to win the G2

Honeymoon and run 2nd in the G1 Rodeo Drive. Among those she beat at GG included Blended Citizen, who would go on to win the G3 Jeff Ruby and compete in the Belmont Stakes, ending a 3year TC drought for this race.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Since going to synthetic in 2009, not a single El Camino Real Derby alumnus has hit the board in a TC race. In the ‘90s this race boasted Charismatic, Tabasco Cat, Casual Lies and Cavonnier. Since ‘09:

K y Derby : Chocolate Candy (5th,

’09), Comma to the Top (19th, ’11), Daddy Nose Best (10th, ’12), Dance With Fate (6th, ’14).

Preakness : Daddy Nose Best (9th, ’12).

Belm ont : Blended Citizen (9th,

’18), Chocolate Candy (9th, ’09).

65 HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 El Camino Real Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’18 Paved (f) Van Dyke McCarthy 102 ’17 Zakaroff Frey Specht 90 ’16 Frank Conversation Gutierrez O’Neill 91 ’15 Metaboss Solis Bonde 93 ’14 Tamarando R. Baze Hollendorfer 90 ’13 Dice Flavor Valdivia Gallagher 93 ’12 Daddy Nose Best Leparoux Asmussen 92 ’11 Silver Medallion R. Baze Asmussen 91 ’10 Connemara R. Baze Pletcher 85 ’09 Chocolate Candy R. Baze Hollendorfer 88 Winning Preps for Last 10 El Camino Real Derby Winners ’18 Paved (f) 1st Maiden (SA) ’17 Zakaroff 5th California Derby (GG) ’16 Frank Conversation 1st California Derby (GG) ’15 Metaboss 1st Maiden (SA) ’14 Tamarando 2nd Cal Cup Derby (SA) ’13 Dice Flavor 3rd Allowance (SA) ’12 Daddy Nose Best 1st Eddie Logan (SA) ’11 Silver Medallion 1st Eddie Logan (SA) ’10 Connemara 2nd California Derby (GG) ’09 Chocolate Candy 1st California Derby (GG) INSIDE THE EL CAMINO REAL DERBY: Santa Anita preppers hold a 6-4 narrow edge in the last decade of this race with all 4 of the Golden Gate-prepped winners having exited the California Derby. Closers have ruled the roost in this race on synthetic, though Paved stayed more in early attendance a year ago than most. Its future as a Ky Derby points chase race would seem to be in limbo without production.

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SOUTHWEST STAKES February 18, 2019

Derby points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: The second of Oaklawn’s 4 route preps leading up to the Triple Crown, the Southwest takes place President’s Day Monday and assumes center stage nationally.

The first graded stakes on the local menu, it was extended to 1-1/16 miles from a flat mile in 2013.

Unlike the Smarty Jones Stakes before it, the Southwest utilizes the full stretch and traditional finish line. Huge fields are the norm since 2008 – each year featuring 10 or more starters (10 a year ago; split divisions in 2012 with 21 entrants).

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: 8-1 shot My Boy Jack rocketed up the rail from far back to draw clear by 4 ½ lengths for the Brothers Desormeaux, taking strongly to the

sealed muddy track. Smarty Jones winner and favorite Mourinho retreated for Bob Baffert in a rare local misfire for that barn. My Boy Jack, Combatant and Sporting Chance all would go on to the TC. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Recent Southwest alumni include elder stars Will Take Charge, Caleb’s Posse and Flat Out. The Southwest’s highlights since ’04:

K y Derby : Smarty Jones (1st, ’04),

Steppenwolfer (3rd, ’06), Hard Spun (2nd, ’07), Denis of Cork (3rd, ’08), Lookin At Lee (2nd, ’17).

Preakness : Smarty Jones (1st,

’04), Hard Spun (3rd, ’07), Ride on Curlin (2nd, ’14).

Belm ont : Smarty Jones (2nd, ’04).

67 HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Southwest Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’18 My Boy Jack Desormeaux Desormeaux 98 ’17 One Liner Velazquez Pletcher 101 ’16 Suddenbreakingnews L. Quinonez DK Von Hemel 94 ’15 Far Right Smith Moquett 93 ’14 Tapiture Santana Asmussen 99 ’13 Super Ninety Nine Bejarano Baffert 101 ’12 Castaway (split div) Bejarano Baffert 97 ’12 Secret Circle (split div) Bejarano Baffert 103 ’11 Archarcharch Court Fires 93 ’10 Conveyance Garcia Baffert 102 ’09 Old Fashioned Dominguez L. Jones 97 Winning Preps for Last 10 Southwest Stakes Winners ’18 My Boy Jack 3rd Sham (SA) ’17 One Liner 1st Allowance (GP) ’16 Suddenbreakingnews 2nd Springboard Mile (RP) ’15 Far Right 1st Smarty Jones (OP) ’14 Tapiture 1st Kentucky Jockey Club (CD) ’13 Super Ninety Nine 1st Allowance (SA) ’12 Castaway 1st Maiden (SA) ’12 Secret Circle 2nd Sham (SA) ’11 Archarcharch 4th Smarty Jones (OP) ’10 Conveyance 1st San Rafael (SA) ’09 Old Fashioned 1st Remsen (Aqu) INSIDE THE SOUTHWEST STAKES: California preppers have won this race 5 of the last 9 years, including a pair out of the Sham Stakes. Far Right (2015) and Archarcharch (2011) are the only Southwest winners this decade who had a prior start at the Oaklawn meet. Rarely does a horse rebound from a poor effort to win this race as 7 of the last 7 exited victories and 8 of the last 10 finished Top-2 last out.

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MINE THAT BIRD DERBY February 24, 2019

Derby points: none KEY INGREDIENTS: Named for the 2009 Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird, who ventured through New Mexico en route to his stunning upset.

January’s Riley Allison Derby leads into the former Borderland Derby as the local preps for the rich Sunland Park Derby. At 1 1/16 miles on the dirt, the Mine That Bird Derby gives hopefuls a chance to acclimate to the extreme altitude and dust conditions at Sunland Park that can be troublesome for some shippers.

The Risen Star moving up a week helps put attention on the Mine That Bird Derby as the lone big 3YO stakes of the weekend, but there’s still no graded status or Ky Derby qualifying points. Last year’s event did not carry the momentum from a ’17 race that featured Conquest Mo Money and Irap.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: 2-5 chalk Runaway Ghost failed to repeat his Riley Allison Derby victory as Reride put him away late by 2 ½ lengths. Though not a player in the TC, Reride went on to finish 3rd in the G2 UAE Derby.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Until 2017, it almost began and ended with Mine That Bird, who was 2nd in the 2009 edition when named the Borderland Derby. The 2005 renewal produced a Belmont Stakes starter, as well as eventual BC Sprint winner Thor’s Echo.

K y Derby : Irap (18th, ’17), Mine

That Bird (1st, ’09).

Preakness : Conquest Mo Money

(7th, ’17), Mine That Bird (2nd, ’09).

Belm ont : Mine That Bird (3rd, ’09),

Southern Africa (8th, ’05).

69 HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Mine That Bird Derby Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’18 Reride Juarez Jr. Asmussen 103 ’17 Conquest Mo Money Carreno M Hernandez 88 ’16 Concord Fast Eikleberry Evans 85 ’15 Where’s the Moon E. Gomez Dominguez 94 ’14 Proceed Juarez Marr 98 ’13 Dry Summer Madeira Marr 87 ’12 Isn’t He Clever Medellin Dominguez 91 ’11 Fusa Code J. Shepherd Asmussen 88 ’10 Storming Saint Contreras Dominguez 85 ’09 Scorewithcater M. Baze O’Neill 88 Winning Preps for Last 10 Mine That Bird Derby Winners ’18 Reride 1st Big Drama (DeD) ’17 Conquest Mo Money 1st Riley Allison Derby (Sun) ’16 Concord Fast 4th Governor’s Cup (Zia) ’15 Where’s the Moon 1st Maiden (Sun) ’14 Proceed 1st Red Hedeman Mile (Sun) ’13 Dry Summer 1st Allowance (Sun) ’12 Isn’t He Clever 4th Robert B. Lewis (SA) ’11 Fusa Code 3rd Maiden (SA) ’10 Storming Saint 3rd Riley Allison Futurity (Sun) ’09 Scorewithcater 1st Allowance (SA) INSIDE THE MINE THAT BIRD DERBY: Trainer Steve Asmussen has won this race 3 times in the last 11 years (2008, 2011 and 2018). Horses relocated from the major national circuits have fared well in this race once acclimated with local conditioners, including the 2013, ’15 and ’17 winners (also ’14 runner-up). No Mine That Bird / Borderland Derby winner has gone on to win the Sunland Derby. 5 of the last 6 winners have exited prep victories, including 2 straight from previous stakes scores.

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FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH STAKES March 2, 2019

Derby points: 50-20-10-5 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: The sandwich route between GP’s Holy Bull and Florida Derby, the Fountain of Youth often comes up far stronger than the former and arguably tougher than the main event. With 50 points to the winner, it has become an early ‘Win & You’re In’-type race for the Kentucky Derby, even though the Triple Crown is 2 months away.

At 1-1/16 miles, the FoY welcomes fleet performers (like Strike Power a year ago) even more so than the 9F Fla Derby, ratcheting the pace most years and providing a wicked comeback spot for those on the shelf. The past 2 champion 2YOs – Classic Empire and Good Magic – have unsuccessfully launched their sophomore seasons here.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: 18-1 shot Promises Fulfilled wired the field in his first start of the year

as reigning 2YO champ Good Magic mustered a 3rd-place return effort.

Good Magic went on to win the Blue Grass, finish 2nd in the Derby, and add the Haskell. Promises Fulfilled bounced in the Florida Derby, was 15th in Louisville, but wound up a G1-winning sprinter.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Six FoY alumni have won the Derby since 1980, and Good Magic was a rock-solid 2nd a year ago. Since 2010, consider these Triple Crown highlights:

K y Derby : Good Magic (2nd, ’18), Orb (1st, ’13), Ice Box (2nd ’10).

Preakness : Shackleford (1st, ’11).

Belm ont : Irish War Cry (2nd,’17)

Frosted (2nd, ’15), Commissioner (2nd, ’14), Medal Count (3rd, ’14), Orb (3rd, ’13), Union Rags, (1st, ’12).

71 HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Fountain of Youth Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’18 Promises Fulfilled I. Ortiz Romans 104 ’17 Gunnevera Castellano Sano 102 ’16 Mohaymen Alvarado McLaughlin 102 ’15 Itsaknockout L. Saez Pletcher 91 ’14 Wildcat Red L. Saez Garoffalo 100 ’13 Orb Velazquez McGaughey 102 ’12 Union Rags Leparoux Matz 103 ’11 Soldat A. Garcia McLaughlin 104 ’10 Eskendereya Velazquez Pletcher 103 ’09 Quality Road Velazquez J Jerkens 110 Winning Preps for Last 10 Fountain of Youth Winners ’18 Promises Fulfilled 3rd Kentucky Jockey Club (CD) ’17 Gunnevera 2nd Holy Bull (GP) ’16 Mohaymen 1st Holy Bull (GP) ’15 Itsaknockout 1st Allowance (GP) ’14 Wildcat Red 1st Hutcheson (GP) ’13 Orb 1st Allowance (GP) ’12 Union Rags 2nd BC Juvenile (CD) ’11 Soldat 1st Allowance (GP) ’10 Eskendereya 1st Allowance (GP) ’09 Quality Road 2nd Allowance (GP) INSIDE THE FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH STAKES: 6 of the last 11 Fountain of Youth winners rose in class from the local Gulfstream meet’s allowance ranks. In fact, 11 of the last 13 winners exited a top 3 finish already at the meet. With a short run to the first turn and sixteenth pole finish line employed, you don’t want to be far behind at Gulfstream Park over its 9-furlong oval in this race configuration.

GOTHAM STAKES

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March 9, 2019

Derby points: 50-20-10-5 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: Third in NYRA’s four preps toward the TC, the Gotham shares a crowded national weekend that includes the San Felipe, Tampa Bay Derby and Jeff Ruby Stakes. Its distinction among those races is that it’s the only 1-turn event of the quartet, having shortened back to a mile in 2018 and remaining at that trip this year.

For much of its history, the Gotham was a 1-turn mile in late March, but extended to 1-1/16 miles in 2006 through 2017 around 2 turns.

The Gotham gets its horses from the local winter scene as well as a strong influence from Florida.

Horses who miss the Fountain of Youth a week prior, or prefer to avoid a stablemate or big hitter at GP, often find their way to the Big A for the Gotham. Those with distance questions also apply.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Enticed reeled in 35-1 pace player Old Time Revival as 8-5 favorite Free Drop Billy settled for a flat third. The Florida shippers ran 1st, 3rd as Jerome winner Firenze Fire did not threaten in 4th.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Cloud Computing (’17), Red Bullet (’00) and Easy Goer (’89) are the only Gotham winners to post scores in the TC since Secretariat.

The Gotham’s TC alumni since ’15:

K y Derby : Firenze Fire (11th, ’18),

Free Drop Billy (14th, ’18), Enticed (16th, ’18), J Boys Echo (15th, ’17), Shagaf (DNF, ’16), Tencendur (17th, ’15)

Preakness : Cloud Computing (1st, ’17) Belm ont : Free Drop Billy (7th,

’18), J Boys Echo (9th, ’17)

73 HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Gotham Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’18 Enticed Alvarado McLaughlin 104 ’17 J Boys Echo Albarado Romans 104 ’16 Shagaf I. Ortiz, Jr. C. Brown 94 ’15 El Kabeir C.C. Lopez Terranova 95 ’14 Samraat J. Ortiz Violette 99 ’13 Vyjack Rosario R. Rodriguez 99 ’12 Hansen Dominguez Maker 105 ’11 Stay Thirsty Dominguez Pletcher 95 ’10 Awesome Act Leparoux Noseda 102 ’09 I Want Revenge Talamo Mullins 113 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09

Winning Preps for Last 10 Gotham Stakes Winners Enticed 4th Holy Bull (GP) J Boys Echo 3rd Withers (Aqu) Shagaf 1st Allowance (GP) El Kabeir 2nd Withers (Aqu) Samraat 1st Withers (Aqu) Vyjack 1st Jerome (Aqu) Hansen 2nd Holy Bull (GP) Stay Thirsty 5th BC Juvenile (CD) Awesome Act 4th BC Juvenile Turf (SA) I Want Revenge 3rd Lewis Memorial (SA)

INSIDE THE GOTHAM STAKES: Favorites have won the Gotham 6 of the last 9 editions, but have lost the last 2. No Gotham winner has been double-digit win odds since Like Now’s 36-1 bomb in 2006. In the 6 years since NYRA has reconfigured its winter stakes program, locally based horses won the first 3 editions, but shippers have now rattled off 3 in a row (J Boys Echo ventured twice from Florida in 2017 to win the Withers and Gotham).

74

TAMPA BAY DERBY March 9, 2019

Derby points: 50-20-10-5 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: In the mid-2000s, as the Fountain of Youth experimented at 1-1/8 miles, the Tampa Bay Derby really made its hay with horses like Bluegrass Cat, Street Sense, Any Given Saturday and War Pass coming to town. But since the FoY returned to a more sensible, early season trip at this same 1-1/16 miles, the Tampa Bay Derby hasn’t had the same muscle flexed. It’s been a haven for the deep barn of Todd Pletcher. He’s won this race 4 of the last 6 years with a mix of horses both new to the circuit and veterans of the only local route prep, the Sam F. Davis.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: 19-1 shot Quip pressed 8-5 favorite and Pasco sprint winner World of Trouble and scored the upset with Sam F. Davis winner Flameaway rallying for second. Also-rans included Wood winner Vino Rosso.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Super Saver ‘10 and Tapwrit ‘17 have carried this race since the FoY returned to a competing distance:

K y Derby : Vino Rosso (9th, ’18),

Flameaway (13th, ’18), Tapwrit (6th, ’17), State of Honor (19th, ’17), Destin (6th, ’16), Brody’s Cause (7th, ’16), Danzig Moon (5th, ’15), Carpe Diem (10th, ’15), Vinceremos (17th, ’14), Verrazano (14th, ’13), Java’s War (13th, ’13), Falling Sky (19th, ’13), Prospective (18th, ’12), Watch Me Go (18th, ’11), Super Saver (1st, ’10).

Preakness : Quip (8th, ’18), Divining

Rod (3rd, ’15), Danzig Moon (6th, ’15) Ring Weekend (5th, ’14), Cozzetti (7th, ’12), Super Saver (8th, ’10), Schoolyard Dreams (9th, ’10).

Belm ont : Vino Rosso (4th, ’18),

Tapwrit (1st, ’17), Destin (2nd, ’16), Brody’s Cause (6th, ’16), Uptowncharlybrown (12th, ’10).

75 HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Tampa Bay Derby Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’18 Quip Geroux Brisset 98 ’17 Tapwrit J Ortiz Pletcher 101 ’16 Destin Castellano Pletcher 97 ’15 Carpe Diem Velazquez Pletcher 96 ’14 Ring Weekend Centeno Motion 97 ’13 Verrazano Velazquez Pletcher 100 ’12 Prospective Contreras Casse 95 ’11 Watch Me Go L. Garcia O’Connell 95 ’10 Odysseus Maragh Albertrani 100 ’09 Musket Man Centeno Ryan 93 Winning Preps for Last 10 Tampa Bay Derby Winners ’18 Quip 7th Kentucky Jockey Club (CD) ’17 Tapwrit 2nd Sam F. Davis (Tam) ’16 Destin 1st Sam F. Davis (Tam) ’15 Carpe Diem 2nd BC Juvenile (SA) ’14 Ring Weekend 1st Maiden (GP) ’13 Verrazano 1st Allowance (GP) ’12 Prospective 2nd Sam F. Davis (Tam) ’11 Watch Me Go 3rd Sam F. Davis (Tam) ’10 Odysseus 1st Allowance (Tam) ’09 Musket Man 3rd Sam F. Davis (Tam) INSIDE THE TAMPA BAY DERBY: 4 straight winners, and 6 of the last 8, exited stakes preps. 6 of last 11 exited the Sam F. Davis, but only 6 Davis winners have ever gone on to add the Tampa Bay Derby, so it’s most often a rebounder. The last 7 Tampa Bay Derby winners (and 15 of the last 17) were horses winter-based on Florida’s Atlantic coastline – several of whom traveled to TBD prior for a prep. Quip became the first TB Derby winner since Pineaff in 1999 to win this race after an off-the-board final prep finish.

76

SAN FELIPE STAKES March 9, 2019

Derby points: 50-20-10-5 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: Similar to Oaklawn’s Rebel and Gulfstream’s Fountain of Youth, the San Felipe has a main event quality even if it is a springboard ‘prep’ toward the Santa Anita Derby. Its 50-point qualifier status makes it a destination race as well. The San Felipe is an annual mix of stakes re-matches as well as class risers from the ALW and MSW ranks at 11/16 miles. Brilliant performances have been the norm, and have proven difficult to always replicate.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Bolt d’Oro and McKinzie provided a midseason showdown in this field of 7; the latter got the DQ victory despite making his first start of the year and missing time with illness.

It was a rugged race in which the winner never duplicated it and the runner-up wound up sidelined.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Last year’s race produced only Bolt d’Oro to the TC (12th, Derby). But highlights since 2000 include:

K y Derby : Fusaichi Pegasus (1st,

’00), Giacomo (1st, ’05), Pioneerof The Nile (2nd, ’09), Bodemeister (2nd, ’12), California Chrome (1st, ’14), Dortmund (3rd, ’15), Exaggerator (2nd, ’16).

Preakness : Fusaichi Pegasus (2nd,

’00), Point Given (1st, ’01), Giacomo (3rd, ’05), Bodemeister (2nd, ’12), Creative Cause (3rd, ’12), California Chrome (1st, ’14), Exaggerator (1st, ’16).

Belm ont : Commendable (1st, ’00), Point Given (1st, ’01), Medaglia d’Oro (2nd, ’02).

77 HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 San Felipe Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’18 Bolt d’Oro Castellano Ruis 98 ’17 Mastery Smith Baffert 102 ’16 Danzing Candy Smith Sise 104 ’15 Dortmund Garcia Baffert 102 ’14 California Chrome Espinoza Sherman 102 ’13 Hear the Ghost Nakatani Hollendorfer 99 ’12 Creative Cause Rosario Harrington 102 ’11 Premier Pegasus A.Quinonez Cho 100 ’10 Sidney’s Candy Talamo Sadler 93 (s) ’09 Pioneerof the Nile Gomez Baffert 92 (s) Winning Preps for Last 10 San Felipe Stakes Winners ’18 Bolt d’Oro 3rd Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (Dmr) ’17 Mastery 1st Los Alamitos Futurity (Lrc) ’16 Danzing Candy 1st Allowance (SA) ’15 Dortmund 1st Robert B. Lewis (SA) ’14 California Chrome 1st California Cup Derby (SA) ’13 Hear the Ghost 2nd San Pedro (SA) ’12 Creative Cause 3rd San Vicente (SA) ’11 Premier Pegasus 1st Hollywood Prevue (Hol) ’10 Sidney’s Candy 1st San Vicente (SA) ’09 Pioneerof the Nile 1st Robert B. Lewis (SA) INSIDE THE SAN FELIPE STAKES: The last 11 times Bob Baffert has had a San Felipe starter, he’s had 3 wins and 8 runner-ups dating back to Roman Ruler’s flop in 2005 when last. His McKinzie was DQ’d 1st to 2nd last year. Ten of the last 11 winners exited Top 3 finishes in stakes races (7 of those coming off of victories). Don’t be afraid of a stretch-out sprinter as 4 consecutive winners from 2010-’13 handled the extra ground.

JEFF RUBY STEAKS

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March 9, 2019

Derby points: 20-8-4-2 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: Moved up on the calendar in 2019, the former Spiral Stakes will be run at its earliest date ever, and 1 week in front of last year’s date.

Renamed the Jeff Ruby Steaks in 2018, this also marks the second year that the once 50-point Derby prep was been reduced to a 20-84-2 allotment. Kentucky’s first chance at Derby qualifying points comes at Turfway as 2 chances await later at Keeneland. The Jeff Ruby joins the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate as the only American preps on synthetic surfaces to offer Derby points.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: California shipper Blended Citizen finally got some measure for those who unsuccessfully have been trying the El Camino Real Derby to Turfway path in the synthetic era.

The top 4 were 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th early and rallied as Pony Up fell a neck short for Todd Pletcher, a 3time winner of this race.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Blended Citizen wound up on the also-eligible list for the ’18 Derby before finishing 9th at Belmont.

Let’s examine the highlights of the Poly era, ’06-present.

Ky Derby: Hard Spun (2nd, ‘07), Animal Kingdom (1st, ‘11), Went the Day Well (4th, ’12).

Preakness: Hemingway’s Key (3rd, ’06), Hard Spun (3rd, ‘07), Macho Again (2nd, ’08), Animal Kingdom (2nd, ’08).

Belmont: Hard Spun (4th, ‘07).

79 HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Jeff Ruby Steaks Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’18 Blended Citizen Frey O’Neill 100 ’17 Fast and Accurate Gaffalione Maker 86 ’16 Oscar Nominated Hernandez, Jr. Maker 91 ’15 Dubai Sky J. Lezcano Mott 103 ’14 We Miss Artie Velazquez Pletcher 93 ’13 Black Onyx Bravo Breen 96 ’12 Went the Day Well Velazquez Motion 103 ’11 Animal Kingdom Garcia Motion 97 ’10 Dean’s Kitten Velasquez Maker 101 ’09 Hold Me Back Desormeaux Mott 101 Winning Preps for Last 10 Jeff Ruby Steaks Winners ’18 Blended Citizen 3rd El Camino Real Derby (GG) ’17 Fast and Accurate 1st Overnight Stakes (GP) ’16 Oscar Nominated 1st Black Gold (FG) ’15 Dubai Sky 1st Kitten’s Joy (GP) ’14 We Miss Artie 8th Fountain of Youth (GP) ’13 Black Onyx 1st Allowance (GP) ’12 Went the Day Well 1st Maiden (GP) ’11 Animal Kingdom 2nd Allowance (GP) ’10 Dean’s Kitten 2nd Palm Beach (GP) ’09 Hold Me Back 5th Remsen (Aqu) INSIDE THE JEFF RUBY STEAKS: Graham Motion, Bill Mott and Mike Maker account for 9 of the 13 scores since going to Polytrack. 8 of the last 11 Jeff Ruby/Spiral winners were horses who had raced on the turf at Gulfstream during the winter.

Horses who have prepped last at Turfway have finished 2nd or 3rd in 5 of the last 6 years. The past 3 years have seen winners at 6-1, 23-1 and 24-1 after a run of pretty formful finishes.

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82

REBEL STAKES March 16, 2019

Derby points: 50-20-10-5 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: The main local prep for the G1 Arkansas Derby has taken on a life of its own. The purse has pushed the $1 million mark and 50 Derby qualifying points make it a veritable Win & You’re In. The lure of Todd Pletcher from Florida and Bob Baffert from California make this an intersectional must-see. Over the past 15 years, few races can offer this winner’s roll call: American Pharoah, Smarty Jones, Curlin, Lawyer Ron, Lookin At Lucky, Will Take Charge and Secret Circle.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Much like Malagacy in 2017, Todd Pletcher made a Rebel raid via GP, this time with Magnum Moon. The unbeaten upstart would win a 4th straight in the Arkansas Derby before a disappointing 19th in the Ky Derby. Solomini, sent away the 6-5 favorite, settled for 2nd as Bob Baffert took a rare Rebel defeat.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Last year was a rare TC misfire for the Rebel. Since Smarty Jones’ sweep at OP in 2004, the Rebel highlights have been remarkable, especially the Preakness. Consider:

K y Derby : Smarty Jones (1st, ’04), Afleet Alex (3rd, ’05), Steppenwolfer (3rd, ’06), Curlin (3rd, ’07), American Pharoah (1st, ’15), Lookin At Lee (2nd, ’17).

Preakness : Smarty Jones (1st,

’04), Afleet Alex (1st, ’05), Curlin (1st, ’07), Lookin At Lucky (1st, ’10), Oxbow (1st, ’13), Ride on Curlin (2nd, ’14), American Pharoah (1st ’15), Cherry Wine (2nd, ’16).

Belm ont : Smarty Jones (2nd, ’04),

Afleet Alex (1st, ’05), Curlin (2nd, ’07), Anak Nakal (3rd, ’08), Atigun (3rd, ’12), Oxbow (2nd, ’13), American Pharoah (1st, ’15), Creator (1st, ’16).

83

’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Rebel Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) Magnum Moon Saez Pletcher 99 Malagacy Castellano Pletcher 95 Cupid Garcia Baffert 99 American Pharoah Espinoza Baffert 99 Hoppertunity Smith Baffert 99 Will Take Charge Court Lukas 101 Secret Circle Bejarano Baffert 97 The Factor Garcia Baffert 106 Lookin At Lucky Gomez Baffert 102 Win Willy Berry M. Robertson 104

’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09

Winning Preps for Last 10 Rebel Stakes Winners Magnum Moon 1st Allowance (GP) Malagacy 1st Allowance (GP) Cupid 1st Maiden (SA) American Pharoah 1st FrontRunner (SA) Hoppertunity 4th Risen Star (FG) Will Take Charge 6th Southwest (OP) Secret Circle 1st Southwest (OP) The Factor 1st San Vicente (SA) Lookin At Lucky 1st Cash Call Futurity (Hol) Win Willy 1st Allowance (OP)

INSIDE THE REBEL STAKES: Three straight Rebel winners were making their stakes debuts coming off of victories. The last 9 Rebels have been won by Todd Pletcher (2), Bob Baffert (6) and D. Wayne Lukas (1), quite a trifecta of all-time greats. 8 of the last 10 Rebel winners exited victories in their most-recent prep. From 2013-’17, the Rebel produced at least one Triple Crown race exacta finisher.

The only Oaklawn-based Rebel winner since 2010 was Will Take Charge in 2013. Shippers include 6 from California and 2 from Florida in that span.

84

LOUISIANA DERBY March 23, 2019

Derby points: 100-40-20-10 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: The season’s first 100-point Ky Derby points qualifier will make its second straight appearance on the calendar 6 weeks out from the first Saturday in May. This allows for a potential Arkansas Derby bid 3 weeks between starts if needed for a late bloomer or troubled finisher who still needs Ky Derby points.

The taxing Fair Grounds stretch of 1,346 feet actually is more than 111 feet longer than Churchill Downs, providing a realistic dress rehearsal. The Louisiana Derby gets its field from the Lecomte and Risen Star locally as well as shippers from Florida who often are being separated from other stablemates in that region.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Risen Star Stakes alumni took 4 of the top 5 spots, including a 4th straight winner from that heat in 52 favorite Noble Indy. The public

jumped on his sharp recent works.

In all, 4 La Derby runners would go on to run in the Kentucky Derby, including 3 of the top 8 finishers.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Since changing its timing and distance in 2010, the La Derby has taken off in terms of production. At least 1 alumnus has hit a TC race trifecta each year except ’12.

K y Derby : Gun Runner (3rd, ’16),

Commanding Curve (2nd, ’14), Golden Soul (2nd, ’13), Revolutionary (3rd, ’13), Nehro (2nd, 11), Mucho Macho Man (3rd, ’11).

Preakness : Bravazo (2nd, ’18),

Senior Investment (3rd, ’17, Mylute (3rd, ’13).

Belm ont : Patch (3rd, ’17), Keen Ice (3rd, ’15), Palace Malice (1st, ’13), Drosselmeyer (1st, ’10), Fly Down (2nd, ’10).

85 HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Louisiana Derby Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’18 Noble Indy Velazquez Pletcher 100 ‘17 Girvin Hernandez Sharp 99 ’16 Gun Runner Geroux Asmussen 100 ’15 International Star Mena Maker 99 ’14 Vicar’s in Trouble Napravnik Maker 104 ’13 Revolutionary Castellano Pletcher 105 ’12 Hero of Order Martin Dorochenko 95 ’11 Pants On Fire Napravnik Breen 97 ’10 Mission Impazible Maragh Pletcher 97 ’09 Friesan Fire G. Saez L. Jones 103 ’18 ‘17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09

Winning Preps for Last 10 Louisiana Derby Winners Noble Indy 3rd Risen Star (FG) Girvin 1st Risen Star (FG) Gun Runner 1st Risen Star (FG) International Star 1st Risen Star (FG) Vicar’s in Trouble 3rd Risen Star (FG) Revolutionary 1st Withers (Aqu) Hero of Order 4th Black Gold (FG) Pants On Fire 6th Risen Star (FG) Mission Impazible 3rd Southwest (OP) Friesan Fire 1st Risen Star (FG)

INSIDE THE LOUISIANA DERBY: 12 straight La Derby winners exited stakes bids, while 9 of the last 12 competed in the Risen Star on the local path. In fact, 5 times in the last 11 years, the Risen Star winner has doubled-down to take the Louisiana Derby.

West coast invaders haven’t won a Louisiana Derby since the early/mid2000s when Bobby Frankel and Bob Baffert tasted success in the Big Easy.

Only 1 of the last 11 La Derby editions was swept 1-2-3 by locally prepped horses, so expect at least 1 shipper on the ticket.

86

SUNLAND DERBY March 24, 2019

Derby points: 50-20-10-5 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: New Mexico’s only Kentucky Derby qualifying prep, the Sunland Derby has been a favorite stop for west coast horsemen traveling east since its 2003 debut. Names like Baffert, O’Neill, Bonde, Machowsky and Callaghan have made successful raids from California.

It’s offered at 1 1/8 miles on dirt, over a very fast racing surface that can fool speed-figure players and those following the stopwatch.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Runaway Ghost, who began his career in Southern California, fully made himself at home in New Mexico, winning the Riley Allison, finishing 2nd in the Mine That Bird and scoring the Sunland Derby as the lukewarm 7-2 favorite by more than 3 lengths. Sidelined after the score, Runaway Ghost did not make the TC and this race lacked a player of repute in one of its weaker renewals this decade.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: The Sunland Derby has 2 TC race winners – Mine That Bird and Ruler On Ice. Its alumni in the TC:

K y Derby : Hence (11th, ’17), Irap

(18th, ’17), Firing Line (2nd, ’15), Chitu (9th, ’14), Daddy Nose best (10th, ’12), Twice the Appeal (10th, ’11), Conveyance (‘15th, ’10), Mine That Bird (1st, ’09), Advice (13th, ’09), Sort It Out (17th, ’05).

Preakness : Conquest Mo Money

(7th, ’17), Hence (9th, ’17)Firing Line (7th, ’15), Govenor Charlie (8th, ’13), Daddy Nose Best (9th, ’12), Astrology (3rd, ’11), Mine That Bird (2nd, ’09).

Belm ont : Commissioner (2nd, ’14)

Ruler On Ice (1st, ’11), Mine That Bird (3rd, ’09), Southern Africa (8th, ’05).

87 HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Sunland Derby Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’18 Runaway Ghost Hebert Fincher 96 ’17 Hence Juarez Asmussen 103 ’15 Firing Line Stevens Callaghan 101 ’14 Chitu Garcia Baffert 103 ’13 Govenor Charlie Garcia Baffert 99 ’12 Daddy Nose Best Leparoux Asmussen 101 ’11 Twice the Appeal Reyes Bonde 95 ’10 Endorsement Albarado Ritter 99 ’09 Kelly Leak Smith Machowsky 92 ’08 Liberty Bull G.Melancon Amoss 91 ’18 ’17 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08

Winning Preps for Last 10 Sunland Derby Winners Runaway Ghost 2nd Mine That Bird Derby (Sun) Hence 7th Southwest (OP) Firing Line 2nd Lewis Memorial (SA) Chitu 2nd Lewis Memorial (SA) Govenor Charlie 1st Maiden (SA) Daddy Nose Best 1st El Camino Real Derby (GG) Twice the Appeal 4th Turf Paradise Derby (TuP) Endorsement 1st Maiden (OP) Kelly Leak 1st Allowance (SA) Liberty Bull 3rd Southwest (OP)

INSIDE THE SUNLAND DERBY: Note: Race not held in 2016 due to quarantine/viral outbreak. Horses who wintered in California have won 6 of the last 9 editions of this race. While locals from the Borderland/Mine That Bird Derby have struggled historically, the past 2 years have seen Conquest Mo Money and Runaway Ghost run 2nd and 1st in the Sunland Derby.

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90

FLORIDA DERBY March 30, 2019

Derby points: 100-40-20-10 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: The Florida Derby has produced a record 24 victors in the Kentucky Derby, most recently Always Dreaming in 2017. The nation’s most prolific prep sits 5 weeks out on the calendar from the first Saturday in May and caps a long series of 5 potential route preps (4 graded) at GP on the campaign.

Rarely do we see a shipper for that reason; the locals make up a strong band and often stablemates are sent elsewhere to separate.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Holy Bull winner Audible notched his 4th straight victory as the 8-5 favorite in a 3-length score over Hofburg. That duo would go on to finish 3rd in the Ky Derby and Belmont Stakes. Fourth-place finisher Catholic Boy and last-place stopper Promises Fulfilled would go to win Saratoga summer G1s, namely the Travers and Jerkens.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Since moved on the calendar to a last-stop destination on the trail in the mid-2000s, we’ve seen Barbaro, Big Brown, Orb, Nyquist and Always Dreaming win the Ky Derby via the Florida Derby.

Consider the roll this race has been on in terms of highlights since ‘06:

K y Derby : Audible (3rd, ’18),

Always Dreaming (1st, ’17), Nyquist (1st, ’16), Orb (1st, ’13), Ice Box (2nd, ’10), Big Brown (1st, ’08), Barbaro (1st, ’06).

Preakness : Nyquist (3rd, ’16),

Itsmyluckyday (2nd, ’13), Shackleford (1st, ’11), First Dude (2nd, ’10), Big Brown (1st, ’08).

Belm ont : Hofburg (3rd, ’18), Orb

(3rd, ’13), Union Rags (1st, ’12), First Dude (3rd, ’10), Dunkirk (2nd, ’09), Da’Tara (1st, ’08), Sunriver (3rd, ’06).

91

’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Florida Derby Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) Audible Velazquez Pletcher 107 Always Dreaming Velazquez Pletcher 102 Nyquist Gutierrez O’Neill 97 Materiality Velazquez Pletcher 105 Constitution Castellano Pletcher 97 Orb Velazquez McGaughey 97 Take Charge Indy Borel Byrne 104 Dialed In Leparoux Zito 101 Ice Box Lezcano Zito 101 Quality Road Velazquez J. Jerkens 103

’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09

Winning Preps for Last 10 Florida Derby Winners Audible 1st Holy Bull (GP) Always Dreaming 1st Allowance (GP) Nyquist 1st San Vicente (SA) Materiality 1st Overnight stakes (GP) Constitution 1st Allowance (GP) Orb 1st Fountain of Youth (GP) Take Charge Indy 2nd Allowance (GP) Dialed In 2nd Allowance (GP) Ice Box 5th Fountain of Youth (GP) Quality Road 1st Fountain of Youth (GP)

INSIDE THE FLORIDA DERBY: Todd Pletcher has won this race each of the last 4 years he’s had an entrant (no starter in 2016). 5 straight winners were horses who were not alumni of the Fountain of Youth. Empire Maker (’03) and Nyquist (’16) are the only shippers to win the Florida Derby in recent years. {Note: Nyquist had a sales bonus from Fasig-Tipton to lure him.} 12 of the last 13 winners exited a first or second-place prep finish (last 6 in a row exited victories). Fields of 8-10 have been the norm of late, including 10-10-9 the past 3 years.

92

WOOD MEMORIAL April 6, 2019

Derby points: 100-40-20-10 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: One of the most unfathomable Kentucky Derby notes remains the Wood Memorial’s drought since 2003 – when Funny Cide/Empire Maker ran 1-2. Since then, no alum of the Wood has finished in the Top-3 in the run for the roses. The race’s downgrade to a G2 in 2017 got no stakes committee boost from Cloud Computing’s immediate Preakness score. The calendar shift of the Florida and Louisiana Derbies to last-stop preps coincides with the demise of the Wood as a once-dominant port of call. Now 4 weeks out from the Kentucky Derby, it’s considered a quick turnaround and leaves no buffer for a misfire if points are a concern late in the season. But the same goes for the Blue Grass and Santa Anita Derby the same weekend.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Vino Rosso powered home late by 3 lengths over 6-5 favorite Enticed,

denying the Gotham winner a Big A sweep of NY’s top preps. Plus, Bob Baffert’s Restoring Hope was 3rd in a rare Wood showing for the barn.

Firenze Fire would be a 4th Wood alum not hit the 2018 TC scene, but none would hit the board.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Since the Florida Derby’s ’06 rise, the Wood has been awfully quiet in the TC. Here are the best since:

K y Derby : Frosted (4th, ’15),

Wicked Strong (4th, ’14), Normandy Invasion (4th, ’13), Tale of Ekati (4th, ’08).

Preakness : Cloud Computing (1st,

’17), Social Inclusion (3rd, ’14), Jackson Bend (3rd, ’10).

Belm ont : Vino Rosso (4th, ’18),

Irish War Cry (2nd, ’17), Frosted (2nd, ’15), Wicked Strong (4th, ’14), Street Life (4th, ’12), Anak Nakal (3rd, ’08).

93 HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Wood Memorial Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’18 Vino Rosso Velazquez Pletcher 102 ’17 Irish War Cry Maragh Motion 102 ’16 Outwork Velazquez Pletcher 96 ’15 Frosted Rosario McLaughlin 107 ’14 Wicked Strong Maragh J. Jerkens 103 ’13 Verrazano Velazquez Pletcher 100 ’12 Gemologist Castellano Pletcher 104 ’11 Toby’s Corner Castro Motion 97 ’10 Eskendereya Velazquez Pletcher 102 ’09 I Want Revenge Talamo Mullins 109 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09

Winning Preps for Last 10 Wood Memorial Winners Vino Rosso 4th Tampa Bay Derby (Tam) Irish War Cry 7th Fountain of Youth (GP) Outwork 2nd Fountain of Youth (GP) Frosted 4th Fountain of Youth (GP) Wicked Strong 4th Allowance (GP) Verrazano 1st Tampa Bay Derby (Tam) Gemologist 1st Allowance (GP) Toby’s Corner 3rd Gotham (Aqu) Eskendereya 1st Fountain of Youth (GP) I Want Revenge 1st Gotham (Aqu)

INSIDE THE WOOD MEMORIAL: 8 of the last 9 Wood winners shipped north from Florida to score, including 7 straight. Favorites have won 4 of the last 10. Entering off a win isn’t a must either, as 9 of the last 13 winners lost their prior starts. Todd Pletcher’s deep bench has won 5 of the last 9 Wood Memorial offerings via Florida. The Gotham Stakes has produced only 2 Wood winners in the past decade.

94

BLUE GRASS STAKES April 6, 2019

Derby points: 100-40-20-10 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: Since being downgraded to a G2, the Blue Grass has produced Belmont winner Tapwrit and Derby runner-up Good Magic in its 2 editions. Despite 23 Derby winners all-time as alumni, it remains a mystery that no horse has swept the big 2 at Keeneland and Churchill Downs since Strike the Gold in 1991. The Blue Grass shares the 4-week-out window with the Wood and Santa Anita Derby. Its proximity to Louisville makes it an attractive last resort and it’s a hub particularly for the Tampa Bay Derby troupe.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Reigning 2YO champ Good Magic led a 1-2-3 sweep of Fla invaders as the 8-5 favorite. The top 5 finishers all competed in the TC. Chad Brown got his Blue Grass after finishing 2nd in ’16, ’17.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Since dirt return 4 years ago:

K y Derby : Good Magic (2nd, ’18),

Flameaway (13th, ’18), Free Drop Billy (16th, ’18), Practical Joke (5th, ’17), Tapwrit (6th, ’17), McCraken (8th, ’17), J Boys Echo (15th, ’17), Irap (18th, ’17), Brody’s Cause (7th, ’16), My Man Sam (11th, ’16), Danzig Moon (5th), Carpe Diem (10th), Frammento (11th), Ocho Ocho Ocho (14th).

Preakness : Good Magic (4th, ’18),

Sporting Chance (6th, ’18), Cherry Wine (2nd, ’16), Laoban (6th, ’16), Danzig Moon (6th, ’15).

Belm ont : Free Drop Billy (7th,

’18), Blended Citizen (9th, ’18), Tapwrit (1st, ’17), J Boys Echo (9th, ’17), Brody’s Cause (6th, ’16), Cherry Wine (7th, ’16), Frammento (5th, ’15).

95 HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Blue Grass Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’18 Good Magic J. Ortiz Brown 98 (d) ’17 Irap Leparoux O’Neill 100 (d) ‘16 Brody’s Cause Saez Romans 94 (d) ’15 Carpe Diem Velazquez Pletcher 102 (d) ’14 Dance With Fate Nakatani Eurton 99 ’13 Java’s War Leparoux McPeek 96 ’12 Dullahan Desormeaux Romans 102 ’11 Brilliant Speed Rosario Albertrani 97 ’10 Stately Victor A. Garcia Maker 99 ’09 General Quarters Coa T. McCarthy 98 Winning Preps for Last 10 Blue Grass Stakes Winners ’18 Good Magic 3rd Fountain of Youth (GP) ’17 Irap 4th Sunland Derby (Sun) ’16 Brody’s Cause 7th Tampa Bay Derby (Tam) ’15 Carpe Diem 1st Tampa Bay Derby (Tam) ’14 Dance With Fate 2nd El Camino Real Derby (GG) ’13 Java’s War 2nd Tampa Bay Derby (Tam) ’12 Dullahan 2nd Palm Beach (GP) ’11 Brilliant Speed 2nd Hallandale Beach (GP) ’10 Stately Victor 5th Allowance (GP) ’09 General Quarters 5th Tampa Bay Derby (Tam) INSIDE THE BLUE GRASS STAKES: Last year, Good Magic became the first Fountain of Youth alum to win the Blue Grass since Monba in 2008. That continued the run of 9 of the last 11 winners who had wintered in Florida. Tampa Bay Derby alumni have won 4 of the last 10 editions, including scores on both Polytrack and dirt. Not only have Blue Grass winners held the Derby jinx, but none has won any Triple Crown race since Prairie Bayou’s 1993 Preakness.

96

SANTA ANITA DERBY April 6, 2019

Derby points: 100-40-20-10 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: Triple Crown winner Justify got the final jewel that eluded California Chrome and I’ll Have Another in recent years following Santa Anita Derby launches. What’s next for the encore? The Santa Anita Derby trail builds nicely from the Sham to the Lewis to the San Felipe. Each race gets markedly tougher and the trips extend. While competition out west often isn’t deep, its top end may be unrivaled nationally.

Even when horses like American Pharoah and Nyquist have shipped out of town, there’s Cali starpower.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Unbeaten Justify ran his record to 3-for-3 by wiring a cast that included fellow Ky Derby starters Bolt d’Oro and Instilled Regard. He

gave trainer Bob Baffert a recordpadding 8th win in the SA Derby.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Since its 2011 return to dirt, the Santa Anita Derby’s TC top-4s:

Ky Derby: Justify (1st, ’18),

Instilled Regard (4th, ’18), Battle of Midway (3rd, ’17), Exaggerator (2nd, ’16), Dortmund (3rd, ’15), California Chrome (1st, ’14), I’ll Have Another (1st, ’12)

Preakness: Justify (1st, ’18),

Exaggerator (1st, 16), Dortmund (4th, ’15), California Chrome (1st, ’14), I’ll Have Another (1st, ’12), Creative Cause (3rd, ’12).

Belmont: Justify (1st, ’18), Gormley

(4th, ’17), California Chrome (4th, ’14), Paynter (2nd, ’12).

97 HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Santa Anita Derby Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’18 Justify Smith Baffert 114 ’17 Gormley Espinoza Shirreffs 99 ’16 Exaggerator Desormeaux Desormeaux 102 ’15 Dortmund Garcia Baffert 106 ’14 California Chrome Espinoza Sherman 106 ’13 Goldencents Krigger O’Neill 106 ’12 I’ll Have Another Gutierrez O’Neill 98 ’11 Midnight Interlude Espinoza Baffert 98 ’10 Sidney’s Candy Talamo Sadler 99 (s) ’09 Pioneerof the Nile Gomez Baffert 95 (s) Winning Preps for Last 10 Santa Anita Derby Winners ’18 Justify 1st Allowance (SA) ’17 Gormley 4th San Felipe (SA) ’16 Exaggerator 3rd San Felipe (SA) ’15 Dortmund 1st San Felipe (SA) ’14 California Chrome 1st San Felipe (SA) ’13 Goldencents 4th San Felipe (SA) ’12 I’ll Have Another 1st Lewis Memorial (SA) ’11 Midnight Interlude 1st Maiden (SA) ’10 Sidney’s Candy 1st San Felipe (SA) ’09 Pioneerof the Nile 1st San Felipe (SA) INSIDE THE SANTA ANITA DERBY: 13 straight winners exited local SA preps, including 11 of the last 13 from local stakes bids. 7 of the last 10 winners tuned up in the San Felipe (5 in a row have exited that same prep before Justify a year ago). Gormley, Exaggerator, Tiago, Castledale and Buddy Gil are the only SA Derby dirt winners in the last 20 years to rally from more than 4 lengths back to score.

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ARKANSAS DERBY April 13, 2019

Derby points: 100-40-20-10 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: Oaklawn’s series of preps in Jan, Feb, Mar and Apr culminates in this $1 million event that’s skyrocketed its reputation since 2004’s rise of Smarty Jones. The winners of 11 Triple Crown races since that time have passed through the Arkansas Derby – all this despite a bucked trend of spacing that sees the Arkansas Derby as America’s last G1/G2 Triple Crown prep just 3 weeks out from the first Saturday in May. Its similarity to the main event with a big field, huge crowd and pre-race saddling festivities serve as a perfect dress rehearsal.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Unbeaten Rebel champ Magnum Moon returned from Florida and scored his 4th straight win. Among those in his wake were 4 runners who would go on to the TC, led by eventual Preakness 3rd Tenfold.

Magnum Moon disappointed in Ky and was sidelined thereafter.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Highlights since ’04 include Triple Crown winner American Pharoah:

K y Derby : Lookin At Lee (2nd,

’17), American Pharoah (1st, ’15), Danza (3rd, ’14), Bodemeister (2nd, ’12), Nehro (2nd ’11), Super Saver (1st, ’10), Curlin (3rd, ’07), Steppenwolfer (3rd, ’06), Afleet Alex (3rd, ’05), Smarty Jones (1st, ’04).

Preakness : Tenfold (3rd, ’18),

Classic Empire (2nd, ’17), American Pharoah (1st, ’15), Ride On Curlin (2nd, ’14), Oxbow (1st, ’13), Bodemeister (2nd, ’12), Curlin (1st, ’07), Afleet Alex (1st, ’05), Smarty Jones (1st, ’04).

Belm ont : Creator (1st, ’16),

American Pharoah (1st, ’15), Commissioner (2nd, ’14), Atigun (3rd, ’12), Summer Bird (1st, ’09), Curlin (2nd, ’07), Afleet Alex (1st, ’05), Andromeda’s Hero (2nd, ’05), Smarty Jones (2nd, ’04).

99 HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Arkansas Derby Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’18 Magnum Moon Saez Pletcher 99 ’17 Classic Empire Leparoux Casse 96 ’16 Creator Santana Asmussen 100 ’15 American Pharoah Espinoza Baffert 102 ’14 Danza Bravo Pletcher 104 ’13 Overanalyze Bejarano Pletcher 96 ’12 Bodemeister Smith Baffert 105 ’11 Archarcharch Court Fires 99 ’10 Line of David Court Sadler 99 ’09 Papa Clem Bejarano G. Stute 100 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09

Winning Preps for Last 10 Arkansas Derby Winners Magnum Moon 1st Rebel (OP) Classic Empire 3rd Holy Bull (GP) Creator 3rd Rebel (OP) American Pharoah 1st Rebel (OP) Danza 3rd Allowance (GP) Overanalyze 5th Gotham (Aqu) Bodemeister 2nd San Felipe (SA) Archarcharch 3rd Rebel (OP) Line of David 1st Allowance (SA) Papa Clem 2nd Louisiana Derby (FG)

INSIDE THE ARKANSAS DERBY: The Rebel Stakes has produced the Arkansas Derby winner 3 of the last 4 years and half of the last 8. Power barns Todd Pletcher and Bob Baffert have accounted for 5 of the last 7 wins. Baffert has trained the last 6 of the last 8 Arkansas Derby favorites with 2 wins, Bodemeister and American Pharoah. In the last decade, the only Ark Derby winners based at OP for the meet have been Archarcharch and Creator, though the latter made his way here after a Fair Grounds stint to open the 2016 calendar.

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LEXINGTON STAKES April 13, 2019

Derby points: 20-8-4-2 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: Once demoted to a 10-point prep, the Lexington will enjoy offering 20 points to its winner for the second straight year. That can make a big difference in luring a bubble horse whose connections fear being on the outside looking in. The window now is 3 weeks out from Derby Day for the second straight year vs. 2 through much of its recent history. At 1-1/16 miles, the Lexington also serves as a great comeback spot for a late-arriving sophomore or a graded stakes spot for a sprinter to test his route mettle – while utilizing the ease of the sixteenth-pole finish line.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: My Boy Jack rallied stoutly for a narrow victory as the 3-2 favorite, continuing a run of late-season chalk in the Triple Crown preps.

None of his 10 rivals would move on to the TC series, though My Boy Jack accounted well in Louisville with a 5th-place finish.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: The Lexington has produced a single TC series starter in each of its 4 years since returning to dirt: My Boy Jack ’18, Senior Investment ’17, Collected ’16 and Divining Rod ’15. The Lexington’s TC-winning alumni of the past 30+ years include some historic names:

K y Derby : Charismatic (’99, 1st), Swale (’84, 1st).

Preakness : Charismatic (’99, 1st), Hansel (’91, 1st), Risen Star (’88, 1st)

Belm ont : Touch Gold (’97, 1st),

Hansel (’91, 1st), Risen Star (’88, 1st)

101 HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Lexington Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’18 My Boy Jack Desormeaux Desormeaux 94 (d) ’17 Senior Investment Hill McPeek 93 (d) ’16 Collected Castellano Baffert 94 (d) ’15 Divining Rod Leparoux Delacour 96 (d) ’14 Mr. Speaker Lezcano McGaughey 99 ’13 Winning Cause Leparoux Pletcher 86 ’12 All Squared Away J. Garcia Ward 97 ’11 Derby Kitten Leparoux Maker 96 ’10 Exhi Albarado Pletcher 97 ’09 Advice Gomez Pletcher 93 Winning Preps for Last 10 Lexington Stakes Winners ’18 My Boy Jack 3rd Louisiana Derby (FG) ’17 Senior Investment 6th Louisiana Derby (FG) ’16 Collected 1st Sunland Festival of Racing (Sun) ’15 Divining Rod 3rd Tampa Bay Derby (Tam) ’14 Mr. Speaker 2nd Palm Beach (GP) ’13 Winning Cause 1st Allowance (Kee) ’12 All Squared Away 6th Spiral (TP) ’11 Derby Kitten 2nd Alligator Alley (GP) ’10 Exhi 1st Rushaway (TP) ’09 Advice 5th Sunland Derby (Sun) INSIDE THE LEXINGTON STAKES: 9 of the last 10 Lexington winners were coming off of stakes bids (2 straight from the Louisiana Derby). Todd Pletcher won this race 4 times in the Polytrack era, and was third here a year ago with Pony Up. 4 of the last 5 Lexington winners exited losses (and 7 of the last 10), so don’t be afraid of a rebound. Since returning to dirt, each Lexington winner has posted a BRIS speed rating between 93 and 96, a consistent measuring stick in this race.

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FEDERICO TESIO STAKES April 20, 2019

Derby points: none STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: Four weeks out from the middle jewel in the Triple Crown, the Tesio serves as a “Win & You’re In” for the Preakness. MD’s traditional prep will be at Laurel Park for the fourth straight year after decades at Pimlico. It’s a race that has lured the likes of Ruler On Ice in 2011, who would eventually win the Belmont Stakes. It stretches hopefuls out to 1-1/8 miles and is preceded on the local stakes schedule by the Frank Whiteley (7 furlongs), Miracle Wood (1 mile) and Private Terms (1 1/16 miles).

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: The connections of Afleet Alex and Smarty Jones – Cash Is King Stable and John Servis – punched their ticket back to the TC when 2-1 chalk Diamond King tallied the Tesio. The stretch-out sprinter won a 7F local stakes at 2 and was 3rd

in the G3 Swale at Gulfstream prior. He wound up 7th in the Preakness. Also in the ’18 Tesio was Still Having Fun, eventual winner of the G2 Woody Stephens.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: The Tesio has produced a starter in the Preakness or Belmont 5 years in a row. The roll call since 2002:

Preakness : Diamond King (7th,

’18), Awesome Speed (9th, ’16), Bodhisattva (8th, ’15), Kid Cruz (8th, ’14), Icabad Crane (3rd, ’08), Xchanger (8th, ’07), Malibu Moonshine (8th, ’05), Water Cannon (10th, ’04), Cherokee’s Boy (8th, ’03), Magic Weisner (2nd, ’02).

Belm ont : Twisted Tom (6th, ’17),

Governor Malibu (4th, ’16), Matuszak (DNF, ’14), Ruler On Ice (1st, ’11), Miner’s Escape (10th, ’09), Icabad Crane (8th, ’08).

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’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09

HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Tesio Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) Diamond King Pennington Jo. Servis 95 Twisted Tom Lynch C. Brown 93 Awesome Speed Toledo Goldberg 97 Bodhisattva McCarthy Corrales 95 Kid Cruz Pimentel L. Rice 90 Abstraction Goncalves D. Carroll 95 Pretension Santiago Grove ---Concealed Identity Russell E. Gaudet 96 Bank The Eight Pino T. Dutrow 91 Miner’s Escape Garcia Zito 96

’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09

Winning Preps for Last 10 Tesio Stakes Winners Diamond King 3rd Swale (GP) Twisted Tom 1st Private Terms (Lrl) Awesome Speed 4th Fountain of Youth (GP) Bodhisattva 2nd Private Terms (Lrl) Kid Cruz 1st Private Terms (Lrl) Abstraction 1st Maiden (FG) Pretension 9th Illinois Derby (Haw) Concealed Identity 1st Allowance (Pim) Bank The Eight 1st Allowance (Prx) Miner’s Escape 1st Maiden (GP)

INSIDE THE FEDERICO TESIO STAKES: Favorites have won 7 of the last 13 Tesio editions, including Diamond King a year ago. Parx shippers continue to do well in this race historically with no local spots in Philadelphia for the spring set. The last 5 winners have come out of either the Private Terms Stakes locally or a Gulfstream Park stakes.

No locally based horse has been the Tesio post time favorite since Etude in 2007. (Note: The Tesio was contested as the Canonero II Stakes in 2012.)

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KENTUCKY DERBY May 4, 2019

STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: Every piece of the Kentucky Derby puzzle offers a new challenge. Who will first handle 1-1/4 miles? Who can tote 126 pounds under top class conditions and distance? Who will keep the nerves in check in front of upwards of 170,000 screaming fans? Check off these boxes and you’re a long way to determining who may be draped in roses – granted, they get a clean trip and also are peaking May 5.

A lot will be made for horses who handle Churchill Downs’ surface and those who do not. A few points of caution: don’t overrate 2YO performance at Churchill in the Fall Meet with success in the Spring. The two surfaces are handled quite differently in terms of moisture content and the Fall surface is far more loose and cuppy than the Spring footing at Churchill that is sped up decidedly.

Also, don’t mistake good workouts over the Churchill surface in the weeks leading up to the Derby as a mulligan for prep performances.

Many sharp workers without credentials have been false buzz over the decades. You want legitimate horses working well at Churchill and that gives them an extra feather in the handicapping cap. Horses working poorly can almost universally be dismissed.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Favored Justify opened his sweep of the Triple Crown with a pressand-pounce victory by 2 ½ lengths. Reigning 2YO champ Good Magic settled for 2nd, while Todd Pletcher’s bid for a Derby repeat resulted in a 3rd-place run for Audible. The win was trainer Bob Baffert’s 5th in the Kentucky Derby, 2nd only to Ben Jones’ 6.

Justify became the 18th alumnus of the SA Derby to wear the roses.

107 HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Kentucky Derby Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’18 Justify Smith Baffert 102 ’17 Always Dreaming Velazquez Pletcher 100 ’16 Nyquist Gutierrez O’Neill 104 ’15 American Pharoah Espinoza Baffert 100 ’14 California Chrome Espinoza Sherman 103 ’13 Orb Rosario McCaughey 111 ’12 I’ll Have Another Gutierrez O’Neill 108 ’11 Animal Kingdom Velazquez Motion 105 ’10 Super Saver Borel Pletcher 105 ’09 Mine That Bird Borel Woolley 110 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09

Winning Preps for Last 10 Kentucky Derby Winners Justify 1st Santa Anita Derby (SA) Always Dreaming 1st Florida Derby (GP) Nyquist 1st Florida Derby (GP) American Pharoah 1st Arkansas Derby (OP) California Chrome 1st Santa Anita Derby (SA) Orb 1st Florida Derby (GP) I’ll Have Another 1st Santa Anita Derby (SA) Animal Kingdom 1st Spiral (TP) Super Saver 2nd Arkansas Derby (OP) Mine That Bird 4th Sunland Derby (Sun)

INSIDE THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Favorites have won 6 straight Derby editions and 8 straight Derby winners exited final prep victories. 6 of the last 7 prepped in either the SA Derby or Florida Derby. The last 5 Derby winners were sitting 2nd/3rd after the opening half-mile. West coast based horses have won 5 of the last 7. The past 2 Derby winners (Justify, Always Dreaming) entered their 3YO seasons as maidens; but note 9 of the last 13 Derby winners were stakes performers at age 2.

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PETER PAN STAKES May 11, 2019

STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: Belmont Park’s chief local prep for the final jewel in the Triple Crown was downgraded to a G3 in 2017.

The 1-turn race measures 1-1/8 miles, but is a full 3 furlongs shorter (minus an additional bend) than its intended goal.

Horses from Oaklawn’s Arkansas Derby have found the timing good here in recent years with a 4-week window between them. Notably last year’s Peter Pan included 4 runners from the Keeneland meet.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: A peculiar cast lined up as all 6 runners came in from out of town with nary a NYRA representative.

Californian Blended Citizen, winner of the Jeff Ruby at Turfway and 5th in the Blue Grass, re-routed here after being left on the Ky Derby also-eligible list. He rallied

past fellow west coaster Core Beliefs, the 2-1 post time choice.

Blended Citizen wound up 9th in the Belmont Stakes to Justify.

TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Tonalist in 2014 was the first Peter Pan-Belmont sweeper since AP Indy in ’92 and first Peter Pan alumnus to win the carnations since Lemon Drop Kid in ’99. Since ’02, here are the best finishes of the Peter Pan alumni:

Belm ont : Governor Malibu (4th,

’16), Tonalist (1st, ’14), Commissioner (2nd, ’14), Street Life (4th, ’12), Charitable Man (4th, ’09), Ready’s Echo (dh-3rd, ’09), Sunriver (3rd, ’06), Sunday Break (3rd, ’02).

109 HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Peter Pan Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’18 Blended Citizen Frey O’Neill 98 ’17 Timeline Castellano C. Brown 109 ’16 Unified J. Ortiz J. Jerkens 95 ’15 Madefromlucky Castellano Pletcher 99 ’14 Tonalist Rosario Clement 107 ’13 Freedom Child Saez Albertrani 105 ’12 Mark Valeski Napravnik L. Jones 102 ’11 Alternation Dominguez D. Von Hemel 103 ‘09 Charitable Man A. Garcia McLaughlin 103 ’08 Casino Drive Desormeaux Fujisawa 109 Winning Preps for Last 10 Peter Pan Stakes Winners ’18 Blended Citizen 5th Blue Grass (Kee) ’17 Timeline 1st Allowance (Aqu) ‘16 Unified 1st Bay Shore (Aqu) ’15 Madefromlucky 4th Arkansas Derby (OP) ’14 Tonalist 2nd Allowance (GP) ’13 Freedom Child 10th Wood Memorial (Aqu) ’12 Mark Valeski 2nd Louisiana Derby (FG) ’11 Alternation 5th Arkansas Derby (OP) ‘09 Charitable Man 7th Blue Grass (Kee) ’08 Casino Drive 1st Maiden (Kyoto/Japan) INSIDE THE PETER PAN STAKES: After back-to-back odds-on winners (’17 Timeline, ’16 Unified), the $11.40 mutuel a year ago was a welcome sign. 7 of the last 9 Peter Pan winners exited defeats, 6 of them in Triple Crown stakes preps. Only 3 of the last 10 Peter Pan winners exited preps on the NYRA circuit. Todd Pletcher leads active trainers with 3 Peter Pan wins – 2004, 2006 and 2015.

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PREAKNESS STAKES May 18, 2019

STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS: The middle jewel of the Triple Crown remains the series’ truest test, evidenced by only 2 winners in the last century at 20-1 or more.

The impact of the 2-week turnaround remains widely overblown by horseplayers, horsemen and the media Since 1983, only 3 Preakness winners weren’t in action over Derby weekend.

You’re still looking for a legitimate Derby winner to repeat his performance, or a troubled-trip horse from Louisville capable of turning the tables. That’s the gist of the handicapping process. Note that horses bet 5-2 or less favoritism in the Kentucky Derby own a superior 8: 6-1-1 record in the Preakness since 1990 – with Nyquist’s third the worst

perfomance. Strong Derby favs rarely miss the Preakness mark.

The vast majority of Preakness winners the past decade have been near the pace with Curlin in 2007 and Exaggerator in 2016 the most recent to win from more than 5 lengths off the early pace.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Derby winner Justify continued his Triple Crown pursuit with the most tenuous victory of the series, cutting through the fog and over the slop to score a half-length decision in which five runners were competitive late. Justify led wire to wire as the 2-5 chalk as longshots Bravazo and Tenfold rounded out the trifecta. Bob Baffert’s 7th Preakness win tied him for the most in history with R.W. Walden.

113 HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Preakness Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’18 Justify Smith Baffert 98 ’17 Cloud Computing Castellano C. Brown 103 ’16 Exaggerator Desormeaux Desormeaux 104 ’15 American Pharoah Espinoza Baffert 100 ’14 California Chrome Espinoza Sherman 105 ’13 Oxbow Stevens Lukas 112 ’12 I’ll Have Another Gutierrez O’Neill 109 ’11 Shackleford Castanon Romans 103 ’10 Lookin At Lucky Garcia Baffert 104 ’09 Rachel Alexandra Borel Asmussen 105 Winning Preps for Last 10 Preakness Stakes Winners ’18 Justify 1st Kentucky Derby (CD) ’17 Cloud Computing 3rd Wood Memorial (CD) ’16 Exaggerator 2nd Kentucky Derby (CD) ’15 American Pharoah 1st Kentucky Derby (CD) ’14 California Chrome 1st Kentucky Derby (CD) ’13 Oxbow 6th Kentucky Derby (CD) ’12 I’ll Have Another 1st Kentucky Derby (CD) ’11 Shackleford 4th Kentucky Derby (CD) ’10 Lookin At Lucky 6th Kentucky Derby (CD) ’09 Rachel Alexandra 1st Kentucky Oaks (CD) INSIDE THE PREAKNESS STAKES: West coast-based horses have won Preakness 6 of last 9 years. Two of the last 4 Preakness runner-ups have been Derby exclusions on points – Tale of Verve & Cherry Wine. Kentucky Derby winners are 12-for-19 in the Preakness exacta since 2000, including 8 wins. 11 of the last 12 Preakness winners have come off 2-week layoffs (10 Derby alumni, 1 Oaks). Trainer Bob Baffert is 5-for-5 in the Preakness when bringing the Derby winner (Justify, American Pharoah, War Emblem, Real Quiet, Silver Charm).

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BELMONT STAKES June 8, 2019

STAKES HISTORY

KEY INGREDIENTS: The last decade-plus has been a Belmont Stakes mixed bag. We’ve had historic runs (American Pharoah, Justify), 1-hit wonders (Da’Tara, Ruler On Ice), late bloomers (Summer Bird, Tonalist) and modest sophomores who just had their way (Creator, Tapwrit).

To say there’s one central point to success over the mile-and-one-half would be disingenuous.

Barring a Triple Crown pursuit, preparation for the Belmont Stakes has evolved mostly into the camp of horsemen skipping the Preakness and accepting the fiveweek interval post-Derby. Belmont Park’s “big sandy” surface easily rates the most “horse-for-course” of any of the Triple Crown footings.

Simply put: If many factors appear comparable, horses who have run

here in the past with success should be given a lean over those who are not proven on the surface.

Resist the temptation for deep, home-run closers who you think will relish 1 1/2 miles. This race just isn’t won that way most years; it’s a grinder’s trip. Utilize the closing types on the underneath of exotics, but not in the top spot.

MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Justify became racing’s 13th Triple Crown winner and second of the past 4 years when joining Bob Baffert stable predecessor American Pharoah. The 4-5 favorite controlled the pace every step of the way as stablemate Restoring Hope offered no early pressure and debatably helped give some lead blocking. Longshot Gronkowski rallied from last of 10 to be 2nd in his US debut.

115 HANDICAPPER’S AIDES Last 10 Belmont Stakes Winners (BRIS Speed Figure) ’18 Justify Smith Baffert 108 ’17 Tapwrit J. Ortiz Pletcher 101 ’16 Creator I. Ortiz, Jr. Asmussen 103 ’15 American Pharoah Espinoza Baffert 109 ’14 Tonalist Rosario Clement 108 ’13 Palace Malice Smith Pletcher 100 ’12 Union Rags Velazquez Matz 104 ’11 Ruler On Ice Valdivia Breen 107 ’10 Drosselmeyer Smith Mott 97 ’09 Summer Bird Desormeaux Ice 105 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09

Winning Preps for Last 10 Belmont Stakes Winners Justify 1st Preakness Stakes (Pim) Tapwrit 6th Kentucky Derby (CD) Creator 13th Kentucky Derby (CD) American Pharoah 1st Preakness Stakes (Pim) Tonalist 1st Peter Pan (Bel) Palace Malice 12th Kentucky Derby (CD) Union Rags 7th Kentucky Derby (CD) Ruler On Ice 2nd Federico Tesio Stakes (Pim) Drosselmeyer 2nd Dwyer Stakes (Bel) Summer Bird 6th Kentucky Derby (CD)

INSIDE THE BELMONT STAKES: 4 of the last 7 Belmont winners who were horses who ran out of the money in the Kentucky Derby and skipped the Preakness. Only 9 Belmont winners since 1990 had competed in all 3 Triple Crown races, Justify ’18, American Pharoah ’15 and Afleet Alex ’05 were the most recent. Tonalist in 2014 became the first Peter Pan-Belmont sweeper since A.P. Indy in ’92. Tapit has sired the past 2 of the past 3 winners – Creator and Tapwrit.

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KDFW DATES & DETAILS Upcoming Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pools will be Feb 8-10, March 8-10 & April 5-7. A Kentucky Oaks-Derby double will be offered only in the April timeframe. The 2019 crop’s first future wager pool held in late November saw Game Winner at 5-1 to top the individual interests, while all-other 3YOs led the way at 6-5 favoritism. Just over $186K was bet into the win pool.

Another $71K-plus was bet into the exactas during that KDFW Pool 1.

A LOSS FOR WYNN This will be the first winter book season without Johnny Avello at the head of the Wynn Las Vegas’ race & sports book since we began publishing the

Countdown Preseason

Annual. Avello has taken on a new

role with Draft Kings, leaving a major void in the industry for a superior oddsmaker and vast number of offerings. Avello and I worked together in comparing lists over the years and it was absolutely a different feel putting together the 2019 Big List this time around. Best of luck to a great guy, Johnny Avello, in his new role.

ONE FOR THE ROAD

Oaklawn Park has extended its 2019 racing season into May, a month longer than usual. In addition, a new $250,000 Oaklawn Invitational will be offered May 4 (Kentucky Derby Day) for 3YOs who came up short on Derby qualifying points, but could be looking toward the Belmont Stakes in 5 weeks. The Invitational will be run at 1-1/8 miles.

--- JP

HISTORICAL COVERS 2014-2018

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