Hpnmagjuly14 by Horse Player NOW

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CONTENTS JULY 2014 5 From The Publisher 7 Page 7: Horses to Watch

Page updates with a live “BUZZ” play in-today. Bookmark!

9 The Teaser

45 Back to Night School – 2YO Baby Races

Byrne, Hazelton, Bredar & Plonk give juvy tips from our archives.

48 Summer Yardwork: AP

Topics that titillate the racing mind.

Spencer delves into Million Preview Day with a closer look at history.

13 Countdown to the Crown

53 Harness Handicapping

Season finale with Queen‟s Plate picks and analysis from Plonk!

24 New Dawn at Del Mar

Nahill looks at the revamped turf & discusses Dmr with top „cappers.

31 It’s ‘Toga Time

Nadeau analyzes winning angles at his hometown track of Saratoga.

Warkentin works the Takter Factor.

57 AQHA Handicapping

Claussen takes you into the starting gate.

62 Playing on Paper

See our marked PPs and attack for conditioned claiming races.

37 BRIS Handicapping Hints

67 Stakes Schedule/Key Dates

40 Winning Angles: 2YOs

72 Galloping Out

DeRosa serves up Saratoga stats.

Shottenkirk offers insight to his approach with baby races.

Also: Key Haskell stats & trends.

Plonk explains why “bad info” can come from good places.

From the Publisher This summer issue captures the absolute joys of racing, and the beautiful thing is that nothing here is unique. This game has a wonderful ability annually to replenish itself with optimism … if you can just wade through the negativity to get to it. Think about it: Who doesn’t love Del Mar, Saratoga, 2-year-olds on the rise, turf racing, the Queen’s Plate, or the run-up to the Hambletonian and All American Futurity? If you don’t like these annual staples of summer, to paraphrase the late, great baseball skipper Sparky Anderson, “then you don’t like ice cream.” We spend millions in this industry trying to invent something that people will like. Then summer comes around and reminds us that all we had to do was wait for it. This game mirrors the carousel that takes children on a daily journey around beautiful Congress Park in Saratoga Springs. We enjoy the circle of racing life every time it - JP spins our way.

Editor, Publisher, Designer Jeremy Plonk Contributing Writers Jerry Shottenkirk Brian Nadeau Brian W. Spencer Jeff Nahill Martha Claussen Ken Warkentin Ed DeRosa Photography Chief Enzina Mastrippolito (Photosbyz) Contributing Photographers Adam Coglianese / NYRA Michael Lisa / Meadowlands Michael Burns / Woodbine Benoit Photos / Del Mar Four Footed Photos / Arlington Coady Photography / Sam Houston

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THE TEASER:

From a shockingly bad statistic to big-house bets Teaser, definition: A male horse used at breeding farms to determine whether to ice-cold brews, a mare is ready to receive a stallion. Also, perhaps the eventually it will most unfulfilling occupation in the universe. all make sense. Buzz Me Up, Jockey! Jockey Roberto Morales was busted for having not one…not two…not three…not four, but five electronic devices in his possession at Prairie Meadows Racetrack & Casino. A random search of four jockeys as they arrived at the track prior to the June 6 card produced three clean riders and one ‘bingo!’ Morales was charged with three criminal offenses: possession of three working and two non-working buzzers; illegal possession of a firearm; and illegal possession of a prescription drug. Morales was arrested, posted bond and was released.

The 24-year-old rider is in his first season of riding at Prairie Meadows where he had had 79 mounts with just four wins—one win less than the number of buzzers in his collection. Teaser can’t help but assume that in most races Morales must have mistakenly been using the two non-working devices. Orange is the New Bettor

Orange is the New Black is a hit

television series on Netflix, but they haven’t yet produced an episode to match what went on behind bars down under in Aussie-land where caged drug boss Tony Mokbel (pictured) was busted making huge bets from inside Victoria’s most secure jail.

Apparently, coded messages were intercepted and showed that the big guy made five-figure betting plunges on major race meetings. Guess he didn’t have access to an ADW account. Mokbel had just been released from a restricted management unit at the prison where he was confined for breaking the nose of a fellow inmate. The disturbance reportedly was sparked by friction over betting. Speaking from experience, Teaser understands. The government was surprised to learn of the size of Mokbel’s wagers. Previously the government had stripped him of over $50 million. Apparently, authorities neglected to search Mokbel’s mattress and cookie jar. Betting the ponies is not a new pastime for Mokbel. In the 1990s he was the leader of the Tracksuit Gang (what a great name), which won millions in huge plunges. The moniker developed from outfits worn by runners who placed large wagers at various locations. There also were allegations of improper links with successful jockeys and trainers. Which is strange because, as everyone knows, in the US jocks and trainers are the worst touts.

Mokbel, once regarded as the largest drug importer and distributor in Melbourne, fled Australia for Greece in 2006 after a police investigation into gangland murders. In 2012, he was jailed for 30 years. Here’s hoping the Aussie screws aren’t too hard on our fellow horseplayer. In racing they say time only counts when you’re serving it. Guess Mokbel was just looking for an entertaining way to pass some of that remaining 24 years. California Moan What a shame that following the Belmont Stakes California Chrome co-owner Steve Coburn went postal on NBC. We all had become so fond of his Wilfred Brimley ‘stache and homespun, fall-off-acliff-into-a-pile-of-clover story that we couldn’t help but to root for his horse. Win the Kentucky Derby on your birthday? C’mon! Who’s does that? Guess by June 7 Steve’s fortune just plum ran out. If Coburn’s hot streak had continued, Belmont would’ve run out of cold brewskis instead of hot dogs by 2 pm.

That way, the ‘Chrome Cowboy would have had time to sober up before experiencing his life’s most disappointing moment, quickly followed by a mic in his face. Losing sucks. We all know that. But if Steve’s going to be in the racing game, he’d better get used to the feeling. In this sport, the very best win about three times out of 10. Of course, Coburn can be forgiven for being unfamiliar with defeat. His ‘Chrome had reeled off six consecutive stakes wins just before he lost half-a-hoof and the Belmont Stakes. Coburn’s apology on ABC’s Good Morning America the following

Tuesday was heartfelt, sincere and incredibly well calculated (Click Diane Sawyer below for the recap). He did the right thing in giving props to the Tonalist connections, but his mea culpa’s brilliance came when he pointedly apologized to his wife at least three times. Smart man! Steve, ya wet the bed on national TV, but, darn it, we still love ya. And that horsey you got…well, we can’t wait to see him pick ‘em up and lay ‘em down again. You, on the other hand, shouldn’t be pickin’ ‘em up and layin’ ‘em down as often.

- HPN

Queen’s Plate Edition 2014 By Jeremy Plonk

Editor’s Note: The ninth season of Countdown to the Crown has offered the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3YO scene. Countdowntothecrown.com has been the home each Friday since Jan. 3 through the US Triple Crown and concludes this week with Canada’s July 6 Queen Plate, which was added to the scouting report for the first time in 2014. This week’s fearless forecast The 155th running of the Queen’s Plate at Woodbine on July 6 marks the season finale for Countdown in 2014. But, oh, what a way to go out! A large and competitive field looks to make its mark on history and be remembered for capturing Canada’s ultimate classic. A wagering bonanza overfills the Plate this year with $10 million expected in total handle – including a mandatory payout in the Jackpot Hi-5 ($273k in carryover money has been frozen until the Queen’s Plate). Woodbine also offers a pair of guaranteed pick 4 pools.

We Miss Artie Will Go Favored in the Plate for Ken Ramsey Queen’s Plate Pace Scenario SPEED: Heart to Heart Lexie Lou PRESS: Asserting Bear Coltimus Prime Majestic Sunset One Destiny Man o’ Bear Athenian Guard MIDPACK: Lions Bay Cap in Hand We Miss Artie Ami’s Holiday Niigon Expresss CLOSER: Matador Tower of Texas

We’ll go horse-by-horse, as is our Triple Crown race-week custom, to give you a direct take on each of the 15 official Queen’s Plate entrants.

Not On My Tickets CAP IN HAND: Former $25,000 maiden claimer has only a nose MSW win to his credit and showed no interest in a 1 ¼-mile assignment in his only route try to date. Sire Midnight Lute did produce last year’s 16-1 Plate upsetter Midnight Aria, but this one loses regular rider Chantal Sutherland-Kruse to Asserting Bear. LION’S BAY: While I liked his allowance route win June 6 from a tough post and modest pace set-up in front of him, there aren’t any horses in his running lines to give me a sense of his class. The farther they run, the more class/pedigree matter, so this one has much to prove while picking up 10 pounds. ONE DESTINY: The grandson of the great Dance Smartly has the least quality and quantity of race experience in the ’14 Queen’s Plate

field. Given he did not debut until April 20, the meteoric ascension to this level and 1 ¼-miles distance rates too tall a mountain to scale. ATHENIAN GUARD: He appeared on his way to victory in a key June 8 allowance prep vs. Coltimus Prime, but ducked in wildly (click video) and hit the rail and unseated his rider. Well-bred gelding’s mental side does not appear where it needs to be for the classics, but his talent certainly could surprise many here. Omar Moreno, who piloted him to his only win, returns to the saddle.

MAN O’ BEAR: The apparently softer half of the Reade Baker charges in comparison to Asserting Bear, though the trainer says this one has shown more talent. He faded in the Plate Trial at a furlong shorter in his only start this year. It’s a big form cycle move for me “second-off-the-layoff,” but only if I had seen more in the Plate Trial about which to get excited. He’s not impossible, as he was a fairly productive 2YO, but I prefer others with more seasonal foundation. HEART TO HEART: Romping turf mile win at Keeneland impressed mightily that day over a respected Jessica’s Star – who has gone on to win the Iowa Derby since then. But beyond 1 mile in distance, he’s either lost ground or position in all 3 career tries – which makes the 10 furlongs of the Queen’s Plate beyond his best reach. Twice he’s failed to keep up late with Asserting Bear in routes. On pure brilliance, though, he’s no doubt among the top 2-3 potential players in this field at the right distance. The Silver Deputy on the bottom of his pedigree has shown through as a mile is his best trip. His best chance is if the pace is soft and he is allowed to get brave – even so you’d prefer more of a grinder style in that role at 10F.

Eurico Rosa da Silva and Heart to Heart project to make the Queen’s Plate lead … but how far can they go?

Exotics Inclusions NIIGON EXPRESS: He’s never missed a check in 5 starts at Woodbine and runs 2nd-time Lasix in the Queen’s Plate off a solid runner-up vs. open company allowance foes. He’s as well-bred to handle the distance as any in the field, but loses regular rider Patrick Husbands to Lexie Lou. Niigon Express will be totally lost on the tote, despite the fact he’s beaten Coltimus Prime and Cap in Hand. The Plate rates a tough place to make your stakes debut, but he’s got a longshot look underneath to blow up the tris, supers and Jackpot Hi-5. MAJESTIC SUNSET: I’ve been high on this maiden for some time, despite failing to graduate in 9 tries. He gave heavily favored We Miss Artie an anxious moment or 2 in upper stretch of the Plate Trial after nursing along on the lead and

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attempting to kick clear to no avail. The pace should set up a bit more contentious in the Queen’s Plate given the field size / composition of the lineup. You can’t help but wonder that he missed his golden chance in the Trial the way things set up. Even though his two best races have been 9-furlong stakes dates at Woodbine, his pedigree and tendency to flatten out late in his races makes you peg him below the cusp of win contenders at this trip. He would be the most surprising of the Mark Cassetrained trio to win in my estimation … considering he’s been 16-1, 16-1 and 22-1 in his stakes route tries for a barn that always takes money at Woodbine. TOWER OF TEXAS: Respect runs deep for Hall of Fame trainer Roger Attfield (picture) and the pedigree and style of the Plate Trial’s thirdplace finisher. By Kentucky Derby champ Street Sense and with Belmont winner Danzig Connection as his damsire, there’s no reason the 1 ¼ miles won’t suit him as well or better than anyone in this field. Attfield

reaches for US Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez, a tandem that has excelled at Gulfstream and Keeneland over the years. Tower of Texas never has missed the superfecta in 8 starts, and his keep-coming style makes you confident he can keep that streak alive. From a betting standpoint, he’ll figure more in the exotics underneath with a 1-for-8 win ledger and fact that the connections will be harder-played in the international simulcast market due to familiarity. ASSERTING BEAR: This colt owns the distance capability to win the Plate – witnessed by his 9F score in the Coronation Futurity at 2. But inconsistency has been the cause for pause. He’s been off the board in half of his 10 starts and yet to pair up victories. While best in the Marine by a neck, his DQ that day for interference was debatable. Asserting Bear has a nice, versatile running style that bodes well over classic distances and a pedigree top and

bottom to keep chugging along when others wilt. I thought he was primed to be a serious threat in the Blue Grass when he had one of his multiple misfires. Which Asserting Bear shows up Sunday is anyone’s guess – but respect his chances even if your confidence fails to gel. COLTIMUS PRIME: While he performed well enough, he’s disappointed in consecutive allowance bids at 3-5 and 1-1 odds. He netted a second and then a fortuitous victory when Athenian Guard ducked in wildly on June 8. Still, I remain pretty high on this grinder who has some pace ability and style to chug along at a classic distance. Jockey Jesse Campbell lulled them to sleep on the lead in last year’s Queen’s Plate aboard Midnight Aria and, knowing that, figures to keep him much closer to the pace than in his last start. Rider and horse appear to work well together and there’s just something about Coltimus Prime that’s like a bad girlfriend you don’t want to let go of…even if they drive you a little bit nuts.

Win Contenders: LEXIE LOU: I won’t kid anyone that I predicted her Woodbine Oaks performance. It was strictly

out of left field, and equally out of this world. Lexie Lou always was a solid filly within her division and one that was a legit Woodbine Oaks contender. But she never even came onto my Queen’s Plate radar until the furlong marker of the Woodbine Oaks. Now, she’s a full-fledged threat. When the light bulb flips on, horses can do amazing things. Think about 1999, and how Charismatic was a second-tier sophomore until he freaked in Keeneland’s Lexington. Two weeks later he was a Kentucky Derby champ, four weeks later a Preakness hero, and he almost won the US Triple Crown. Cassie has been down the Plate path in recent years with fillies, finishing fourth a year ago with Spring in the Air and third in 2012 with Dixie Strike. His 2014 hand could be his best as Casse looks to notch an all-important Queen’s Plate victory. Casse Closing In On First Queen’s Plate 2011 – 2nd Hippolytus (61-1) 2012 – 3rd Dixie Strike (6-1) 2013 – 3rd Dynamic Sky (6-1) Overall Plate Mark – 17: 0-1-2 Lexie Lou was faster than the boys in the same-day Plate Trial, and

the filly division this year rated very strongly in Countdown with the likes of Llanarmon, Paladin Bay and Wild Catomine all much-respected. Lexie Lou boasts a solid chance at becoming the eighth filly to win the Queen’s Plate, and her chances improve greatly if she can spy speedy Heart to Heart, given her wide draw. MATADOR: Just as was the case with stablemate Lexie Lou, Matador’s final Queen’s Plate prep could not have been more impressive. After 4 straight bids in graded stakes, he dropped in class to the open-company allowance ranks and got the kind of confidence boost that can propel a good horse far forward. It’s fair to wonder if the Malibu Moon colt can extend to 10 furlongs based on his damside pedigree, but he’s bounced out of his last win with a series of strong workouts that indicates he’s set for a career-best. If he can handle the distance, and patient-riding Julien Leparoux will give him every chance, this could be among Casse’s best chances at Plate glory. And a shrewd final

prep placement might deserve all the credit if he’s successful Sunday. AMI’S HOLIDAY (pictured): As a major proponent of pace set-ups and form cycles, I can’t help but like the way Ami’s Holiday has been campaigned this spring with the Queen’s Plate as the goal. The Grey winner and Sovereign Award finalist at age 2 has come back at 3 with two solid preps against open company. His fourth in the G3 Lexington at Keeneland was outstanding against a field that was exceptional for that race in recent history. And he might have been best in the Marine upon his return to Woodbine when placed second via disqualification. The big hurdle between him and trainer Josie Carroll’s third Plate win will be his ability to finish the deal late from a bad post. Ami’s Holiday has had a tendency to hang a bit in the stretch, failing to deliver knockout punches. His workout pattern has been appealing since the Marine and the third start of his form cycle at this kind of trip ought to make

him fit, fresh and dangerous for a barn that knows how to get it done. Luis Contreras teamed with Carroll to win this race with Inglorious just 3 years ago. WE MISS ARTIE: Not always will the winter book favourite deliver on promise at age 3, but this Artie Schiller colt has held his Queen’s Plate hopes high ever since winning Keeneland’s G1 Breeders’ Futurity on Polytrack last October. His 3 starts on turf or synthetic this year have been nearly flawless, including wins in the Plate Trial and G3 Spiral, as well as a hard-fought second in the Kitten’s Joy at Gulfstream on the lawn. Countdown’s Top-Rated Stakes Performances of 2014 1. Lexie Lou – Woodbine Oaks 2. We Miss Artie – Spiral Stakes 3. We Miss Artie – Plate Trial 4. Speightsong – Queenston Stakes 5. We Miss Artie – Kitten’s Joy Smashed to 1-5 favoritism in the Plate Trial, he did not have the greatest trip in his first attempt vs. fellow Ontario-sired runners. We Miss Artie raced inside, behind a slow pace, and could have been bottled-up if unlucky. But top US rider Javier Castellano got a supersmooth run inside when it counted

and his mount did what he needed to. We Miss Artie was not asked for his life in the local prep, but instead ran more of a turf-miler kind of race – sit, sit, sit, tackle late. And, that’s really his game more so than a sustained closer from far back. His papa was an exceptional turf miler and this colt appears to tucker out some if closing into a faster pace. He wants a slow pace like a turf race and then let out a notch for a short burst that can catapult him to the front. I’m not certain this Plate sets up quite that way in terms of pace, and at short odds, I’d be willing to take some swings at beating We Miss Artie even with a complete appreciation for his resume. Jeremy Plonk’s 2014 Queen’s Plate Picks

WIN: LEXIE LOU PLACE: MATADOR SHOW: WE MISS ARTIE Photo credits: Photos By Z, Michael Burns (Woodbine)

Canada’s Triple Crown - Queen’s Plate, Prince of Wales and Breeders’ Stakes - was inaugurated in 1959. The Queen’s Plate dates to 1860. Seven 3-year-olds have swept the prestigious three-race series: New Providence (1959) Canebora (1963) With Approval (1989) Izvestia (1990) Dance Smartly (1991) Peteski (1993) Wando (2003) Longest-priced winners Maternal Pride (1924) $193.35 Paolita (1943) $76.50 Driving Home (1980) $43.90 Fillies to Win Queen’s Plate Inglorious (2011) Dancethruthedawn (2001) Dance Smartly (1991) La Lorgnette (1985) Jammed Lovely (1967) Flaming Page (1962) Canadiana (1953)

Royal Visit: In 2010, Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Philip were on hand to witness their 4th Queen’s Plate. Big Red Mike won the 151st running..

T R

LAST 25 QUEENâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;S PLATE WINNERS 2013 Midnight Aria Jesse M. Campbell Nick Gonzalez 2:04.72 2012 Strait of Dover 2:01.99 Justin Stein Danny Vella 2011 Inglorious 2:02.63 Luis Contreras Josie Carroll 2010 Big Red Mike Eurico Rosa da Silva Nick Gonzalez 2:04.89 2009 Eye of the Leopard Eurico Rosa da Silva Mark Frostad 2:03.84 2008 Not Bourbon Jono Jones Roger Attfield 2:03.59 2007 Mike Fox 2:05.45 Emma-Jayne Wilson Ian Black 2006 Edenwold 2:05.30 Emile Ramsammy Josie Carroll 2005 Wild Desert Pat Valenzuela Bobby Frankel 2:07.37 2004 Niigon Robert Landry Eric Coatrieux 2:04.72 2003 Wando Patrick Husbands Michael Keogh 2:02.48 2002 T J's Lucky Moon Steve Bahen 2:06.88 Vito Armata 2001 Dancethruthedawn Gary Boulanger Mark Frostad 2:03.78 2000 Scatter The Gold Todd Kabel Mark Frostad 2:05.53 1999 Woodcarver Mickey Walls Michael Keogh 2:03.13 1998 Archers Bay Kent Desormeaux Todd Pletcher 2:02.10 1997 Awesome Again Mike E. Smith David Hofmans 2:04.20 1996 Victor Cooley Emile Ramsammy Mark Frostad 2:03.80 1995 Regal Discovery Todd Kabel Roger Attfield 2:03.80 1994 Basqueian Jack Lauzon Daniel J. Vella 2:03.40 1993 Peteski Craig Perret Roger Attfield 2:04.20 1992 Alydeed Craig Perret Roger Attfield 2:04.60 1991 Dance Smartly 2:03.40 Pat Day Jim Day 1990 Izvestia Don Seymour Roger Attfield 2:01.80 1989 With Approval Don Seymour Roger Attfield 2:03.00 1-1/4 miles *** 126 lbs colts (121 lbs fillies) / Past charts.

NEW DAWN AT DEL MAR By Jeff Nahill Like the rest of the Southern California horse racing scene, this will be a year of transition at the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club. The meet, which opens July 17 (a non-traditional Thursday as opposed to Wednesday openers of the past), will be the last one for the much-maligned synthetic Polytrack as dirt will make its return to the main track in 2015. Meanwhile, 2014 will feature a new turf course. The old grass was ripped out last fall and new sod was put in this spring. The turf course was also widened in anticipation of hosting the 2017 Breeders‟ Cup. So there are lots of new things “where the turf meets the surf” like out-of-state trainers Mark Casse, Michael Stidham and Philip Oliver, but there is plenty of old, too, like stalwart trainers Bob Baffert, John

Sadler, Jerry Hollendorfer, Doug O‟Neill and Peter Miller. Plus, the jockey colony is led by Rafael Bejarano, who is still recovering from a horrific spill at Santa Anita, but expected to return early in the Del Mar meet, Joe Talamo and Corey Nakatani – along with a few Hall of Famers named Gary Stevens, Mike Smith and Kent Desormeaux. Like any track, Del Mar offers its own set of challenges and over the past few years that mainly consisted of how the Polytrack would play. One day speed might hold and another day rally-wide horses would rule the roost. It mainly depends on the weather

and how much water is put on the main track. The general rule of thumb is the cooler it is, the tighter the track is and speed is likely to do better. This seems particularly true on Fridays when Del Mar offers its popular 4 p.m. first post. On the other hand, if it‟s warmer the surface tends to get looser and closers tend to do better. Also, if you see the water trucks on the track – or check the watering schedule at www.dmtc.com – the track might get tighter for an upcoming race. “The (Polytrack) definitely has a mind of its own,” said Tom Robbins, executive vice president of the DMTC, “but we think (track superintendent) Richard Tedesco has learned to manage it. We just don‟t want it to be a conveyor belt for speed or good for horses coming from out of the clouds all of the time.” Does all of this make Del Mar more difficult to handicap than other tracks?

“I don‟t think it‟s any harder,” said Jon Lindo, Southern California handicapper, radio host and horse owner. “Every track has its little idiosyncrasies. The tricky part this year will be going from the dirt at Santa Anita to the Polytrack at Del Mar. In the past, we had that buffer at Hollywood Park, which was the inbetween surface because it was almost like dirt, but it was a synthetic surface.” And some horses will be coming from the new, two-week Los Alamitos thoroughbred meet, which occurs right before the opening of Del Mar. Los Alamitos features a dirt track, which horsemen adore – as witnessed by California Chrome‟s success in winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes this spring. “You‟re going cold turkey going into this meet,” said Lindo. “The Southern California handicapper has been handed a lot of variables in the last five years. It‟s nothing

new. We just have to adjust and pay attention. “I think we‟re going to see a lot of form reversals and a lot of horses that were compromised by the style that Santa Anita plays (to speed horses). They will wake up at Del Mar. The first couple weeks will be a great opportunity to cash some tickets.” Terry Turrell, a handicapper for Horse Player NOW, is a big believer in the “horses for courses” theory. “I tend to look at how horses have run at Del Mar in the past,” Turrell saod. “Plus, I like to look at turf horses moving over to the synthetic. For whatever reason, they seem to do well. “Sometimes Del Mar baffles me in the way it plays, but Santa Anita baffles me, too. I‟m looking for a level playing field. There is no replacement for observation. That‟s the most important thing. How is a

horse handling the track?” It‟s no secret who the top trainers on the circuit are as Baffert led last year‟s meet with 22 winners on the Polytrack. He was followed Sadler (20), Hollendorfer (16), O‟Neill (16) and Miller (11). Miller is an interesting study in that he always goes hard at Del Mar since he loves to win (and cash a bet) as he calls Carlsbad home, which is just north of the Del Mar race track. With the closing of Hollywood Park, Miller has returned to San Luis Rey Downs in Bonsall (northeastern San Diego County) to train a lot of his horses away from the clockers‟ view. Miller was hot at the end of the new Santa Anita spring/summer meet, but Lindo thinks he will hit Del Mar just as hard. “You know Peter Miller is going to win a bunch of races opening week,” Lindo said. “He has another wave of horses. He‟s loaded. “Baffert splits his stable in the spring between Churchill Downs

and Santa Anita. You know he‟s gonna come out firing. “Hollendorfer has a bunch of horses, and a lot of horses from Golden Gate, so his horses may not have as much of an adjustment (to the synthetic track). You look for patterns and the guys who traditionally point for this meet until you get a line on how this track is going to help what horses.” The top Polytrack jockeys last year were Bejarano (30 wins), Martin Garcia (24), Edwin Maldonado (22), Victor Espinoza (21) and Joe Talamo. Until Bejarano returns, that will open mounts up for the likes of apprentice Drayden Van Dyke, South Florida import Elvis Trujuillo, Fernando Perez and Desormeaux. A big handicapping tool can be found on Del Mar‟s website, where Polycapping lists all the past races on the synthetic and turf surfaces. There also are many public handicappers listed with their free picks.

The real guessing game at the beginning of the meet will come on the Jimmy Durante Turf Course after it was completely redone for the first time since its inception in 1960. The course was widened to 80 feet all the way around and some banking was added in the turns. The chute for the start of the longer races was made more gradual instead of the sharp elbow, which caused many a problem for inside horses year after year coming by the toteboard for the first time. The composition of the grass remains Greg Norman-1 Bermuda, but other strains that snuck in there over the years are gone.

Also gone are the days of seven and eight entries for turf sprints. Sometimes the also-eligible list was as long as the number of horses running. The course can now accept up to 14 entries, depending on the rail settings, which have also changed. In the past, rails were zero, seven and 14 feet. Now, Del Mar will change the settings in increments of six feet from zero to 30 feet, depending on how chewed up the course is getting. “We have a similar amount of races in the first condition book as we‟ve had in the past,” said Robbins. “Obviously, the course will be better next year than this year, but we‟ve had ideal growing weather this year. We had sunshine and warmth as opposed to the May gray and June gloom of the past.

the old one. “… except we‟re going to have more horses running, which will be good for the gambler,” Lindo said. “The surface is similar to the old one. I‟m expecting a hard, firm turf course. The turns are a little tighter, but I don‟t think it‟s a huge difference. “A lot of those old (turf) races were unplayable (with seven and eight horses). It opens up some avenues for us. I think the widening of the turf course is only going to help with finding value. “I had so many problems getting horses in (to run) as an owner, it leaves a bad taste in your mouth. It wasn‟t fun. I just want to see a good, safe turf course where all the horses are coming out of it good and they get a chance to participate.”

“It‟s going to be a surprise to all of us on how the horses run and if there are any biases.”

Said Turrell, “The biggest bonus is getting rid of that goofy chute. That‟s a real plus. Horses just lost all chance coming out of there sometimes.”

Lindo doesn‟t think the new turf course will be much different than

It will be interesting to see which jockeys learn the new course

quickest. Last year, Bejarano led in grass winners with 16 and Julien Leparoux had 15. Leparoux won‟t return this meet.

program, which gives horses a starting bonus of $1,000 and a 33.3% purse increase in their first start at the seaside oval.

Stevens had 11 grass winners and some people swear by “Talamo on the turf.” Talamo had eight grass winners in 2014.

The program, which is shared with the Thoroughbred Owners of California, will have a slight change this season in that horses which start once during the last three weeks of Santa Anita or the two weeks at Los Alamitos will still be eligible for the bonuses.

Shockingly, the leading grass trainer in 2014 was O‟Neill with eight. O‟Neill was once an automatic throw-out on the green, but with upgraded stock and owners, he is now a force. Sadler had seven turf winners and led in money won with $965,774. Two names to watch for are Philip D‟Amato, who has taken over training for the semi-retired Mike Mitchell (five grass wins in 2014), and Tom Proctor (four wins, $408,772), who trains mainly for Leonard Lavin‟s Glen Hill Farm. According to Robbins, Del Mar‟s barn area will be the fullest it has been in years and the track is looking to place horses at training facilities. This is due in large part to the popular “Ship „N Win”

That‟s why Del Mar has been successful in getting several new outfits to show up this meet – including Casse, who made noise at Gulfstream and Keeneland this year. Casse, who mainly races in the summer at Woodbine, is expected to send approximately 30-40 horses to Del Mar. Other trainers to watch for on this program will be Cody Autry, Molly Pearson, Keith Desormeaux and Ron Moquet. Plus year-round Southern California trainers will be getting new stock from the East. JEFF NAHILL HANDICAPS SO CAL FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT.

IT’S ‘TOGA TIME By Brian Nadeau You’ve waited over 10 months. It’s finally here. Saratoga is about to open. If you’re a racing fan and avid handicapper like me, you’ve probably been counting down the days until Saratoga Race Course opens its doors for the 146th season. This year that day comes on July 18, but it’s never too early to get a leg up on the Spa meet. So with that in mind, let’s take a look at a few things to remember, handicapping angles and betting strategies in the hopes of making Saratoga 146 your best meet ever.

Slow Down, You Move Too Fast The entire purpose of this article is to celebrate Saratoga, while eagerly anticipating its arrival and giving out a few things to look for, yet the first topic of discussion is the author telling you to take your time and ease into the meet gingerly? Yes, that’s exactly right. Far too often the novice hits Saratoga running with a chickenwith-his-head-cut-off mentality. The gates open, they run in and immediately start firing hand over fist at each and every race. Why? If you’re reading this piece, I would assume that a) you’re a competent handicapper and b) you want to get better and constantly work on your craft, something we should all try and do each and every day. You should know by now you won’t beat this game playing every race, day-in and day-out. Contrary to popular belief, the Spa is a bit more marathon than boutique now, at 40 days. There’s simply no reason to rush or get too caught up with the Opening Day madness and freshness of the

meet. Pick your spots, take your time, and like you should do on any given day, play to your strengths and stay within your bankroll. If you have $5,000 earmarked for the entire meet, why spend $1,000 of it on the first weekend? They’ll run about 400 races at the Spa this year. Take your time, pick your spots and let things come to you without chasing. Your bottom line will be a lot better off in the end and you’ll also have plenty of firepower to take advantage when the opportunity arises. There’s no worse feeling at the racetrack than wasting money on races you don’t like, taking away from your bankroll when you find a spot when you really should be sending it in. Know Your Circuit If you’ve taken part in our popular Night School sessions over the past four years, you’ve certainly heard the ―know your circuit‖ adage repeatedly. Nothing is more important when betting the races, but I want to take it even a step deeper as Saratoga beckons. One of the things I’ll be concentrating on is which barns

were hot and which barns were cold as the Belmont Spring / Summer meet comes to a close. Oftentimes, the inexperienced handicapper sees a hot barn to end the Belmont meet and thinks that trend will continue at the Spa. Or they also reason in reverse with a cold Belmont barn. When you think about it, it makes perfect sense. If you can’t win in Elmont, why all of the sudden would you start winning in Saratoga Springs? But there are a few reasons why you can expect a change of fortune in the coming weeks. First, let’s take a look at the hot barn that has been firing on all cylinders at Belmont, especially towards the end of the meet. What the novice doesn’t consider is that all those horses who have won recently now have to step up and face better horses at Saratoga. And I don’t mean that just because the overall product is better. Recent Belmont winners have to face tougher conditions as well.

The horse that just broke through the N1X now has to face saltier N2X runners. The 35k N2L claimer now must face N3L foes. And so on and so forth. So while it’s nice to have a hot barn with horses in form, it’s not as easy a progression as people might think. On the other hand, the horses that have been struggling or hitting the money without winning at Belmont now get to face a new set of horses, many of which will be stepping up to their level for the first time. At Saratoga, it’s common to see a N1X with more than a few last-out MSW graduates. And anyone who has been in this game for a while knows that facing winners for the first time—no matter how good you looked blasting maidens—is never an easy thing to do. The Human Aspect As for trainers, handicappers also should take notice of the barns at Belmont that might have been picking up steam at the end of the

meet. The one that immediately comes to mind to me is Rudy Rodriguez, who was, somewhat shockingly, hitting at about 7% for much of the Belmont meet. Rodriguez started oodles of logical horses, but few found the winner’s circle. But as the meet started to wind down, he’s raised his percentage to about 12 (through July 2) and his barn is finally showing signs of life. I fully expect Rudy to come out firing at Saratoga and will play him aggressively early in the meet until I’m proven wrong. Kiaran McLaughlin is another barn I’ll be looking to at Saratoga after a very slow Belmont. McLaughlin is just 6-for42 (through July 2) at Belmont, paltry numbers by his standards. I’m looking for a big reversal of form at the Spa. I’ll be concentrating on McLaughlin’s older horses, while staying away from his first-time starters, as they usually need a race before firing their best shots. Keep an eye on Bay Of Plenty, who has the look of a future star who could be a lateseason 3-year-old stakes winner.

Another way to approach the human aspect is to ask, ―Which barns perennially point to Saratoga?‖ We know Todd Pletcher points his best 2YOs to the Spa and that Linda Rice is going to win more than her fair share of turf sprints. That’s not splitting the atom or unearthing something new. But what about some of those underthe-radar barns with modest stock that love to fire at the Spa? Roy Lerman is a name not many are familiar with, but he’s going to pop on the turf at about $30, like he does every year. Tony Dutrow will start limited horses, but his percentage will be high, and you can trust that if you see his name in the entries his horse is in to win. Tom Morley doesn’t have a national following, yet but does very good work with limited stock, especially in the New York-bred ranks. Jimmy Bond usually gets going at Belmont, but was a bit slow into stride this summer, so expect him to have a big Saratoga. Chad Brown is not under-the-radar, but the nearby Mechanicville native always points to Saratoga.

This year, perhaps even more so. A look at the Belmont standings (through July 2) reveals that Brown has started just 61 horses at the meet. That tells me that he’s going to be loaded for bear at Saratoga and that it’s quite possible he’s been holding a few horses back for the Spa. Brown has hummed right along at 31% at Belmont, but I really expect him to throw everything in his barn at the Spa this year. While 31% at Saratoga isn’t likely, I give him a huge chance at the trainer’s title, Pletcher and all. The Wagering Side — What to Play? You didn’t think I could talk about the greatest race meet in the world without giving out some wagering advice, did you? Saratoga once again will offer deep and competitive fields with large pools and a full wagering menu. So which bets should you focus on that will give you the most bang for your buck? While it all depends on the size of your bankroll, I’ll be taking a long, hard look at the Pick 5

this year, as it will be the first time it will be offered at Saratoga. At a $0.50 base play, it gives the little guy a chance, and the pool size should be very healthy. Belmont routinely saw its Pick 5 pools range from $125k200k, and I don’t think it’s out of line to think Saratoga will be closer to the $300k range. To me, the Pick 4 is the best bet in all of racing, and at Saratoga the pools will be enormous (Saturday’s are guaranteed at $500k), so it gets magnified that much more. Again, at just the $0.50 increment, the little guy has more than a fighting chance. But handicappers still make a few errors when approaching this bet – none more so than the size of their play. Far too many think that, because you can play for just $0.50, you should throw out a boxcar ticket in the $64-$96 range and hope for chaos. Occasionally I fall victim myself. But we need to be honest

with ourselves, and handicap the overall sequence and then decide, ―Does this warrant a big play, or should I play a smaller ticket and punch it four or five times?‖ Don’t fall into the boxcar trap and look for something that’s not there. There are days when $96 is warranted, but they aren’t as prevalent as you might think. For me, I’m much more comfortable playing a $16 ticket four times when the favorites look logical, as opposed to a big ticket just because the races look wide open. You’ll hit the $16 ticket four times for $95ish each far more often than the $96-for-$1,400 attempts. Tab the Tote While I’m extremely hesitant to take ―tips‖ at the track, or listen to the constant fodder of ―This guy really likes his horse today,‖ I fully admit that checking the toteboard at Saratoga has plenty of benefit, especially in the 2-year-old races. The pools are big enough that wagering action matters. Where a $100 win bet at Delaware Park might turn a 6-1 into a 3-5 in the opening minutes, the pools at Saratoga will have substantial action early and often, so it’s

important to take note of who is taking money and who isn’t. But again, you need to know your circuit. You shouldn’t care when a Pletcher-Repole debut runner opens at 7-5. Why? Because they all open at 7-5! Instead, you should be looking over the board and take note when a Nick Zito firster opens at 7-2 right into the teeth of the Pletcher-Repole hotshot. Nick rarely ever wins with his 2-year-olds (save one year back in 2006), so tote action on one of his would be a big deal. Conversely, if you see a Pletcher 2YO making his or her debut and opens at an icy mutuel, you should also take notice. While it’s not the end-all, Pletcher rarely wins with a juvenile firster over about 4-1. While these are not hard and fast rules, I’ll toss any Pletcher firster that is over 4-1 and I’ll do it with confidence. If they beat me, then I’ll simply golf clap and move on, understanding that playing them all would be a losing proposition. Yes, Saratoga is upon us, but take your time before jumping in and remember to go over your checklist and play to your strengths. Your bottom line will benefit from it. BRIAN NADEAU COVERS NYRA AND GULFSTREAM FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT.

Saratoga by the Numbers

One type of race that is unique to Saratoga in terms of peopleâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s zest for handicapping the Spa versus other tracks is two-year-old maiden races. For some, the conventional wisdom might be to dismiss runners from highprofile connections as overbet, but the good trainers and jockeys end up with the good horses and actually win more than the odds suggest they should. Of course, because of takeout, the ROI on any one angle, even a winning one from an expectation standpoint, isnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t necessarily positive. And so it goes with the looking at trainer and first-time pedigree in two-year-old maiden races sprinting on the dirt at Saratoga: Both help point to winners, but neither shows a flat-bet profit.

The top-ranked trainer for twoyear-old races has an impact value of 1.83 with an ROI of -3%. Debut pedigree info is good for a 1.2 Impact Value, but the hot sires get overbet, as the ROI is -22%. Pedigree shines brighter in twoyear-old maiden grass races with an impact value on turf breeding of 3.62 and an ROI of +72.5%. The top debut pedigree rating is similar to dirt at 1.27, but the ROI is a friendlier 2.5%. So how do you use this information to your advantage? I wouldnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t be looking to make any prime win bets in a two-year-old race without some trusted morning info as well, but not everyone has access to that (or wants to pay for it). However, these stats can point you in the right direction of logical contenders as well as potential longshots to use in multi-race wagers or underneath in exotics based on pedigree.

Now let’s look at some more general trends last year at Saratoga. As we’ve seen track to track throughout the year, the best last-out Brisnet.com Speed Rating and the top Prime Power horse are gangbuster in nonmaiden dirt sprints. Betting the best last-out Brisnet.com Speed Rating in dirt sprints in 2013 at Saratoga would have resulted in a +8.5% ROI, and doing the same with Prime Power was +1%. Dirt routes are not nearly as powerful. The Impact Value for both is still above 1, but the ROI for each category is -30%. Turf sprints favor early speed with the top EP pace rated horses winning twice as often as their odds suggested they would with a flat bet ROI of +40%. The best last-out Speed Rating also did well with a 2.20 Impact Value and -1% ROI. A horse with early foot and good recent form is a must use sprinting on the turf at Saratoga.

The Spa gets its share of rain, and just as two-year-old handicapping needs to be a part of your arsenal when attacking Saratoga, so, too, does off-track handicapping, and no surprise that speed kills there as well. The best last-out Brisnet.com Speed Rating in off-track, nonmaiden sprints last year at Saratoga had an Impact Value of 2.54 with a 31.5% ROI.

– Ed DeRosa

2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING

By Jerry Shottenkirk

andicapping 2-year-olds is a great challenge for horseplayers, mainly due to such a lack of history. No division presents a wider array of horses. At no point will there be such a difference between the best and the worst. When horses get older, they‟ve long-established what kind of class they have or don‟t have. You don‟t have that luxury when you play 2-year-olds. Everyone has his or her own rules when it comes to the juveniles. The following are some of mine that can help you in baby races.

The Tote Avoid first-time starters that are heavy favorites in straight plays. If you see a Todd Pletcher-trained 19 shot at Belmont, move along, unless you use in multi-race (or horizontal) plays. Chances are a horse like this can run. It‟s probably regally bred, handled by a Hall of Fame trainer and likely cost several hundred-thousand dollars at auction. But it‟s not worth the risk. It‟s a great sport, but it‟s gambling; and that‟s not taking a good gamble. There are 2-year-olds, and then there are 2-year-old first-time starters. In a few starts, a 2-year-old can give somewhat of an indication of a talent level. Many start in maiden special weights races – the high end of the maiden ranks. If they

win, they move on to face winners. I‟d much rather go with a far And if they run well, but don‟t win, outside post than a rail post when they likely return to similar MSW it comes to handicapping 2-yearconditions. Those that are clearly olds. When weighing the prospect outrun are dropped to the maidenof losing ground vs. losing claiming ranks. A drop momentum, I‟ll take from maiden special losing ground every A drop from maiden weights to maiden time. Even a horse special weights to claiming is one of the from the 11 or 12 post maiden claiming most significant class has a good chance at is one of the most drops in racing. an unabated run. significant class Generally they weed drops in racing. themselves out by the Seeking a Clear Path time they reach the turn. An inside post is generally an This, of course, depends mainly on enemy to a 2-year-old. Some can the distance of the race. overcome, but many don‟t get their best run early on when near the It‟s not as easy to overcome a far rail. If they are a little tardy at the outside post when the race begins start, it‟s difficult to make up close to the turn. In 5 ½ or 6ground, especially when the field furlong races over most mile ovals, ahead moves over to save ground. it‟s possible to get a good and So many times, an inside-drawn 2steady run at it. year-old is steadied or checked. It’s Not a Real Race, The young ones aren‟t used to that It’s P-r-a-c-t-i-c-e and, instead of a slight steady, most of the time they wind up I don‟t put a great deal of stock in slamming on the brakes. Unless a workouts prior to a first start, juvenile is a potential superstar, it‟s unless they stand out. If a 2-yeardifficult to overcome such an old is breezing 46 seconds for a event, especially at the shorter half-mile, you‟re probably looking distances. Pure and simple, they at a horse with some talent. don‟t recover.

A steady work pattern over a aren‟t the type you‟ll see in the couple of months generally gets a classics. (There is an important horse ready for its first start. exception, you will read below.) Usually only a few of those works Races of 5 1/2, 6 or 7 furlongs are are from the gate. Horses get the more likely spots for first-time approved from the gate by the starters that will wind up in the track‟s starter and maybe have a more significant distance races as couple of other workouts from the 3-year-olds. gate. Too many gate works should However, that‟s not to put up a red flag. If a Too many gate works bad-mouth the more horse has five or six should put up a red impressive short gate workouts, it‟s flag. If a horse has sprinters. usually a sign of a six workouts, and problem leaving there. Trainer Wesley Ward five or six of those (pictured next page) Works have more are from the gate, it’s doesn‟t have horses in weight to them when usually a sign of a the classic 3-year-old the races become problem leaving races annually, but he longer. There doesn‟t there. wins a tremendous have to be a long list amount of short sprints, and many of impressive works when a horse of those are classy 2-year-olds. is running a little more than a halfmile. Not many 2-year-olds wait until the two-turn races pop up later in the season. However, 6- or 7-furlong races are on the schedule a few months after the initial 2year-old races are carded, and works become more important. Class Arrives Later The juveniles that have revved up for 4 1/2-furlong races generally

Some of those even win across the pond when they are sent to Royal Ascot. So, you don‟t have to run long to be „classy.‟ And remember, there are a lot more sprints than long-distance races for the older horses, not to mention the 2-yearolds. In most cases, mid- to latesummer debuts are more common,

Sure, he won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness and was fourth in his bid to finish off a Triple Crown in the Belmont. But when it all started, there probably weren‟t high hopes as far as the classics. It‟s clear that California Chrome‟s connections thought he might be a decent California-bred sprinter. Chromie began like many run-ofthe-mill 2-year-olds. It took him a few months to prove he wasn‟t run of the mill. He was nearly 7-to-1 odds when he made his April debut at Hollywood Park going 4 1/2 furlongs. He ran 2nd to Time for a Hug and paid $7.40 and $4 to place and show. Remember those payoffs. and the horses that already have sights on the classics usually run longer. Now the exception to the rule … It’s Chromie There have been examples of horses running short and early that have developed into long-distance, classic standouts. We only have to look at California Chrome.

California Chrome came back a month later at BHP and won by 2 3/4 lengths at the same distance. He was 6-to-5 this time. Chromie ran in some decent California-bred races and put it all together at Del Mar when he won the Cal-bred Graduation Stakes by nearly three. He was 6-to-1. We know what happened when he began to run longer distances.

He won the Santa Anita Derby at 3-to-5, the Kentucky Derby at 5-to2 and the Preakness at 1-to-2. A horse who paid $3 to win the Preakness paid $4 to SHOW in his career debut going 4 1/2 furlongs against California-breds. Chromie really is the exception. But he is proof that those who run early in the year can be around later. Again, that is not the rule. When Does Breeding Help? Naturally, pedigree is more important in the longer races. When 2-year-olds are going 4 1/2 furlongs in their first start, we probably shouldn‟t key on the pedigree as much – other than to see if the sire and/or dam have a propensity for “win-early” babies. Pedigree certainly carries more importance at the longer distances. Also, pedigree means much more at the larger tracks than at the smaller tracks. If a 2-year-old sired by an upper-echelon sire makes a start at a mid-level or smaller track, chances are there‟s a good reason he‟s at Belterra or Indiana

Downs or Mountaineer instead of Santa Anita or Saratoga. For 2-year-old racing information, BRIS past performances provide good in-race statistics, not just on pedigree, but on connections and how they do with young horses. Some trainers are better with the juveniles, and most of the time, the stats don‟t lie. For overall sire lists, there are several sources. Google “top sires for 2014” and you will land in a good spot. Betting 2-year-olds can be quite challenging. But few races provide you more of a sense of pride when you are correct. It means you considered all the factors and came up with a good runner. And it‟s also important to remember that the very first career start isn‟t all-telling. There‟s a particular chestnut colt on the West Coast that‟s proof of that.

-HPN JERRY SHOTTENKIRK COVERS OAKLAWN, REMINGTON & WOODBINE FOR THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT DAILY.

This month’s topic of review:

2-YEAR-OLD BABY RACES Since 2011, Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races. Through live chats, videos and radio simulcasts, the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers. In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine, we go “Back to Night School” with a look at some of the high points of past lessons.

The subject of handicapping 2year-old “baby” races has taken many forms as an annual subject in class: maidens, pedigrees, workouts, and direct discussions. In 2012 (link), we featured Churchill Downs paddock handicapper Jill Byrne and HRTV host Scott Hazelton, whose father, Richard, long has been one of the Midwest’s top trainers of 2YOs. Here are some of the highlights. Jill Byrne: With the 2-yearolds it is a lot about giving them confidence in the crazy, new

surroundings at the track ... it is very important how they are prepared at the farms before they make it to the track. Jill Byrne: It’s important to know trainer patterns in 2 year old races and maiden races...all trainers want to win first time out, but some really prepare the young stock to excel in that first start...they leave nothing left in the tank. Jill Byrne: I look at pedigrees, workout patterns, trainer patterns, etc ... but then when I see them in the paddock that is when I can separate the big boys/girls.

Scott Hazelton: (My father, Richard) was lucky to have owners that bred good horses and they all would be related in the same bloodlines; so he really got to know the family of each runner. Scott Hazelton: … getting Lasix in a horse’s second start is big for me, too. Toteboard watching is a big thing ... especially paying attention to the will-pays. CLICK THE VIDEO BELOW FOR CATON BREDAR & JEREMY PLONK’S TAKE ON 2-YEAR-OLD HANDICAPPING & MAIDENS.

COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL! TUESDAYS, 8:30 PM ET JULY 1 PACE HANDICAPPING

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By Brian W. Spencer As a horseplayer who grew up learning to play the races at Arlington, the suburban Chicago oval will always rank among my favorite places to wager. With frequently lucrative multi-race sequences, an often talented and underrated jockey colony and consistently excellent turf racing, there has never been much of a question for me as to where I will direct the majority of my summer wagering dollars.

never fails to deliver on the promise of international talent and Grade 1quality racing. The day's headliner, the Arlington Million, is always buoyed by several other stakes races including the Grade 1 Beverly D. for fillies and mares and the Grade 1 Secretariat for three-year olds. The addition of the endurance-testing Arlington St. Leger for the past two seasons has lent some additional international flair to the typical blockbuster day.

The centerpiece of the Arlington season is the International Festival of Racing that is held each August, and it

While all eyes are on Arlington on Million Day, Million Preview Day five weeks before the main event has

They have accounted for 32% of all always been a favorite day of mine starters in Preview Day events, but each racing year. Million Preview Day have produced just 13% of the offers three main stakes that pair up winners. The Modesty is the one place with Million Day events, and the top where this rule holds less true, as three finishers in each event get their those using local preps have starting fees waived on Million Day. accounted for three of the last 10 Older horses aiming for the Million winners. can prep in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap, fillies and mares with eyes - Don't Bank On Big Form Reversals: on the Beverly D. can test the trip in Preview Day is not where a horse goes the Grade 3 Modesty, and to change his or her sophomores looking summer fortunes â&#x20AC;&#x201C; only for Secretariat glory two horses have won in can use the Grade 3 JULY 12 the last 30 Preview Day American Derby as a ARLINGTON PARK events after running stepping stone. MILLION PREVIEW DAY worse than fourth in their most recent starts Million Preview Day (Cosmonaut in the consistently offers an G3 Arlington Handicap 2006 Arlington excellent betting card G3 Modesty Handicap off a ninthwith competitive G3 American Derby place finish and Infinite races, and in fondly Magic in the 2013 recalling many past American Derby out of Preview Days, I a sixth-place finish). While seven decided to do some digging to see horses have done so off winning what kinds of trends I could find over efforts, the real winners are in-form the past 10 years that potentially horses who are knocking on the door. could be put to good use on July 12 in 21 of the last 30 winners of these attacking these races at the windows. events have finished either second, Here's what I found: third, or fourth in their prior start. - Ignore the Local Preppers: Horses in - Toss the Arlington Classic Winner: Preview Day races that made their The Arlington Classic is the first leg of most recent start at Arlington have a the Mid-American Triple that woeful 4-for-81 record in those three concludes with the American Derby races combined over the last decade.

and the Secretariat, and the winners of that prep race for the American Derby have been very soft in the middle leg. They have compiled a 1for-7 record and burned plenty of money along the way, losing as overbet favorites on four occasions at 3-5, 1-1, 6-5, and 8-5. Willcox Inn's 2-1 score in the 2011 American Derby is the only exception. This year's Arlington Classic winner? The 3-year old filly Istanford. - The Arlington Handicap Favorite Will Find the Gimmicks: The Arlington Handicap is an interesting and formful race. Despite the fact that no horse in the last 10 years has come off a winning effort to score in the Arlington Handicap, the public usually finds a good favorite that runs well. Just one chalk has missed the trifecta in the last 10 years (Red Fort, fourth at 7-5 in 2006), and the Handicap has produced a fairly modest recent average win mutuel of just $8.46, compared

to $10.84 for the Modesty and $13.98 for the American Derby. When the favorite doesn't win, it has almost always been the second or third wagering choice, with the biggest win price of the last decade sitting at just $14.20. - Did Bill Mott Send Anything? If he did, especially if it's in the American Derby, pay attention. Mott has not been a regular player on Preview Day, but he has racked up more than $70 worth of win mutuels from just nine runners over the last 10 years, and he captured three consecutive editions of the American Derby from 2005-2007. He also took down the 2005 Modesty with Noisette, meaning from a small sample of well-chosen spots, he has

produced a huge $7.82 Preview Day ROI. $$$ Million Preview Day is an excellent standalone handicapping challenge and wagering opportunity, but what does it mean moving forward to the Grade 1 events in August? The short answer: Not much.

Preview Day have gone on to Grade 1 glory: Dynaforce won the 2009 Beverly D. after finishing third in the Modesty; Eclair de Lune took down the same race in 2010 after a secondplace finish in the Modesty; and Admiral Kitten captured the 2013 Secretariat after a runner-up performance in the American Derby. Those four runners are the obvious exceptions, as in total, 67 runners have progressed from Preview Day to Million Day, and just eight have managed to find the exacta on the rise into Grade 1 company.

MILLION PREVIEW DAY In the actual prepAVG. $2 WINNING PAYS for-future-success conversation, Preview Day has Arlington Handicap $8.46 not produced Modesty $10.84 many winners or American Derby $13.98 serious players on the bigger stage a Last 10 Years month later. This is After all of my not exactly a digging, the best surprising handicapping advice revelation, as many seems to be to enjoy barns hold out their very best players Million Preview Day and its interesting for the more lucrative August races, wagering opportunities on July 12. and the European invasion is almost After applauding the winners, it's best always planned for August, not July. to forget about them as fast as you Gun Salute, trained by Bill Mott to a score in the 2005 Secretariat, is the only horse in the last decade to win a Million Preview Day event and parlay that score into a Grade 1 win several weeks later. Three also-rans from

can and search for some fresh faces to bet on Million Day. GET BRIANâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;S ARLINGTON HORSES TO WATCH EACH RACING DAY IN THE HP NOW BUZZ REPORT!

By Ken Warkentin Hambletonian Time â&#x20AC;&#x201C; The Takter Factor Kicks In The Takter Factor annually resurfaces for the stakes season and the Hambletonian. Itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s a potent combination of a Harvard-like foundation, sheer talent, expert yearling selection, state of the art operation, meticulous management and a passion for winning the classics. With his proven formula for success, Swedish-born Jimmy Takter continues to rank among harness racingâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s top trainers. His stable had another fabulous season

in 2013, and Takter is back stronger than ever in 2014. In 2012, Takter reached the pinnacle of his career by being inducted into the Harness Racing Hall of Fame. The 53-year-old entered the pantheon of honorees at the height of a brilliant, exemplary career and fittingly during his first $9 million season. This time around Takter goes for his third Hambletonian with not one, but three of the top-rated sophomore trotting colts on the

Road to the Hambletonian Top 10 list: Father Patrick, Trixton and Nuncio. Father Patrick was Takter’s 2013 freshman standout, who romped in the Peter Haughton Memorial in 1:54.1 with Meadowlands leading driver Yannick Gingras. The Cantab Hall colt put together a nine-race winning streak, which also included the William Wellwood Memorial and the Breeders Crown. The overwhelming choice for the Dan Patch Award as division champion was 2-for-2 in mid-June after his eleventh straight win, and Takter declared him “the horse he’s always been waiting for who’s really, really special.” By what we’ve seen so far in 2014, the lightly-raced Trixton has a chance to be better than his topranked stablemate. This Muscle Hill colt unleashed a stunning 1:51.2 mile at the Meadowlands in the Simpson Stakes in only his second start of the season on May 9. He came back to win again with an eye-catching rally in the slop on May 16, then equaled the stakes

record of 1:52.1 in the New Jersey Sires Stakes Final on May 31 with Takter in the bike. Takter called Trixton “a perfect ten in every category.” Trixton was the secondhighest priced yearling of 2012 at $360,000. Takter won the 2010 Hambletonian with $425,000 yearling purchase Muscle Massive. Nuncio, the only horse to beat Father Patrick in a Peter Haughton Memorial elimination last year, was sent to Takter this season, and the son of Andover Hall was 2-for-2 in Pennsylvania Sires Stakes through the end of May. Six-time Hambowinning driver John Campbell noted, “Jimmy’s got him settled down and he’s got so much trot when he’s relaxed.” Takter’s filly trotting star was also shining brightly on Hambletonian Day 2013 as Shake It Cerry set a stakes and track record of 1:53.3 in the Merrie Annabelle with Ron Pierce in the sulky. The Donato Hanover filly set a stakes record in the Breeders Crown, and Pierce declared her by far the best twoyear-old filly he’s ever driven. Shake It Cerry capped her Dan Patch Award-winning freshman

Corky. Corky also won the Earl Beal, Jr. Memorial at Pocono Downs. Takter drove To Dream On to an upset in the Kentucky Filly Futurity, and Little Brown Fox completed a Takter triple on Hambletonian Day winning the Vincennes Trot in 1:53.3.

season going past $800,000 with another easy win in the Goldsmith Maid in 1:53.4. Shake It Cerry has come back to go 3-for-3 in 2014. In 2013, the titanic Takter twosome of four-year-old trotters Guccio and Uncle Peter banked a combined $1 million. Guccio, the 2012 Hambletonian runner-up, lowered his mark to 1:51.1 and attained millionaire status. Guccio retired to stand stud in Indiana in 2014. Uncle Peter trotted a world record of 1:50.3 at Pocono Downs, won the Centaur Trotting Classic in a 1:52.3 track record at Hoosier Park. The son of Cantab Hall, who was the beaten favorite in the 2012 Hambletonian, has returned as a five-year-old. Last year, Takter sent out three Hambletonian finalists, Corky, High Bridge and Dontyouforgetit, and finished third in the final with

Both Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry won Breeders Crowns, and with Uffizi Hanover also capturing the Two Year Old Filly Pace, Takter had his second straight Crown triple. In doing so, Takter broke a tie with Bob McIntosh and became the leading trainer in Breeders Crown history with 18 trophies. Nicknamed “Trotting Master,” Takter made a smooth transition onto the pacing side years ago, producing a steady stream of champions. In 1997, the three-time Trainer of the Year was voted the Stanley Dancer Media Award by USHWA-NJ for his exemplary relationship with media. You can call Jimmy anytime and he’s always got time for you to talk horses. Brace yourself; the Takter Factor has kicked in again! – HPN

BREAK TIME A Good Break from the Starting Gate Essential for AQHA Success

By Martha Claussen

Without a doubt, the biggest difference in success between Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing is what happens at the very beginning. A Thoroughbred can bobble or get shuffled back out of the gate and, depending on their closing kick, still be able to run down his rivals for the victory. In Quarter Horse racing, a bad break out of the gate yields little chance of finishing on the board.

So how does a trainer prepare his charge for a clean break from the starting gate? Some horses are just instinctively good gate horses; poised, focused and prepared to break alertly and run a straight course to the finish line. Not all Quarter Horses "get it" right off the bat, so starting gate training is an integral part of preparing champions.

Each track employs a starter, who assembles a 10-12 man crew. They play a pivotal, but highly underrated, role in horse racing. Paul Stutes is the starter at Sam Houston Race Park and places a high premium on early handling of a weanling. "It all starts from day one, when a horse is born," explains Stutes. "I've been doing it all my life and have raised a bunch of babies. The more hands-on, the better. Twoyear-olds who have never seen a human spell trouble. They feel forced and it makes our job tough." Stutes has seen his share of top Quarter Horse 2-year-old champions race in Houston. Past Sam Houston Futurity winners include Azoom, who was named AQHA champion 2-year-old in 1994; Especially Tres, who won the title in 2013 and ran fourth in the $2.4 million All American Futurity (G1) and 2014 victor Kiss My Hocks, who currently holds the top ranking in the AQHA Racing / Horseplayernow.com Top 10 Poll. A tremendous amount of effort is expended to ensure that racehorses are comfortable in the

starting gate. From the introduction to the tightly-enclosed space, to seeing horses to either side of them, to being able to relax while a 10-horse field is loaded, each step has its challenges. "Basically, you want to keep them relaxed and get them to stand on all four feet," explains Stutes. "When they are nervous, tensed up, they'll hop in the air and that's not going to result in a good start." Morning gate training involves standing them for no more than two minutes, but also backing them out of the gate and reloading. In racing and often in finals for futurities, a horse becomes fractious, and the field has to be backed out so that the

gate crew can attend to the distressed runner.

has solid credentials in schooling horses for racing success.

"Backing them out always settles them down," Stutes explains.

He points out that the more established horsemen such as Paul Jones, Mike Joiner, Blane and Trey Wood bring their horses to Ruidoso with some gate training. However, McReynolds and his crew see hundreds of 2-year-olds each spring, many of who have never seen a starting gate.

Stutes has high praise for Kiss My Hocks (pictured below), the Tempting Dash colt who remains undefeated with victories in both the Sam Houston and Ruidoso Futurity this year. He will make his next start in trials for the Rainbow Futurity on July 3 at Ruidoso Downs. "This colt has no fear of anything," maintains Stutes. "He's a big, rangy horse with amazing focus." Kelly McReynolds is the starter at Ruidoso Downs, and like Stutes,

"The first thing we do is walk them through, walk them back, close the gate and then walk them out," said McReynolds. Some catch on right away; others take 10 -12 times. McReynolds and his crew go to great lengths for horsemen, as even with a great break in a futurity trial, good runners don't qualify. Two days of trials for the $2.6 million All American Futurity (G1) will take place in August. Each 2year-old will have to break alertly and execute a flawless and powerful run to the wire. All

mistakes or bobbles are costly when over 250 juveniles are competing for just 10 spots and the opportunity to triumph in the most prestigious race in Quarter Horse racing.

As far as how gate schooling applies to handicapping, there is no single factor such as a speed index, pedigree or trainer win percentage to narrow down the field to a winner. However, one of the most overlooked handicapping factors is looking at the trip notes or replay if a horse has finished out of the money.

With two decades under his belt, McReynolds does not hesitate when citing the best-breaking If the reason Quarter Horse for the poor he has ever outcome was seen. trouble at the "See Me Doit starting gate, (winner of 17 give that races for the runner a late Blane chance in his Schvaneveldt)" Click to watch video! next out. With he said. "He subsequent morning gate training, knew exactly what his job was. the Quarter Horse's performance Always stood like a statue and will likely improve in future races, when the gates opened, he just and the payout as well. said goodbye!" McReynolds worked with noted stallions Chicks Beduino, Separatist and First Down Dash, but could not give an overall gate rating to those champions or their progeny. "It's a game of inches with no luxuries or rating in Quarter Horse racing," states McReynolds.

Martha Claussen is the coordinator of the Racing Aces Fan Education initiative of the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA). She served as publicity director at Sam Houston Race Park from 1997-2007 and continues to be active in writing, fan education and Quarter Horse racing publicity in Texas, Louisiana and other regions in North America.

Horse Player NOW takes you inside the past performances – the GPS of nearly every player – and dissects a specific race for what to look for within the lines – and between them. We continue this month in the claiming ranks as we advance up the class ladder. This time, it’s “conditioned claimers” in the spotlight. The term “conditioned” has nothing to do with a horse’s fitness in this sense, but rather the qualifications and limits placed on participation in different types of races. The conditions could be for age (3-year-olds), sex (fillies and mares) and/or accomplishment (have not won a race this year). The idea is to bring together horses of similar talents in order to make for the most competitive betting races for the public. Because of weakened numbers in the foal crop (total horses bred and born for racing), we have seen a change in recent years in how conditioned claiming races are written by the track’s racing secretary. What used to be a straight-forward race for one particular condition (horses who have not win a race in 6 months), has now morphed into multiple conditions for qualifying. In theory – though debatable – this tactic is supposed to increase field size by making more horses eligible to compete. But, in many cases, it can be argued that it has allowed horsemen to become even more selective and picky in their spots to race. Many now wait around for the just the ideal, perfect spot – and, thus, neither field size nor competitiveness has been addressed positively. PPs courtesy BRIS, chart LINK courtesy Equibase.

Point Given / Photos By Z

JULY 2014 3 Dancing Renee (Bel), f/m, 6F Betrando (LA), 3&up, 8.5F Blair’s Cove (Cby), 3&up, 8.5F Princess Elaine (Cby), f/m), 8.5F 4 Forbidden Apple (Bel), 3&up, 8F-T Perfect Sting (Bel), f/m, 8F-T Elkwood (Mth), 3&up, 8F-T Oak Tree Sprint (Pln), 3&up, 6F American Flag (LA), 3&up, 8.5F Frances Genter (Cby), 3yo f, 6F Victor Myers (Cby), 3yo, 6F 5 Belmont Oaks (Bel), 3yo, 10F-T Belmont Derby (Bel), 3yo, 10F-T Belmont Sprint (Bel), 3&up, 7F Dwyer (Bel), 3yo, 8.5F Suburban (Bel), 4&up, 10F

Los Al Derby (LA), 3yo, 9F Delaware Oaks (Del), 3yo f, 8.5F Robert Dick (Del), f/m, 11F-T Handford (Del), 3&up, 1m70y Oh Say (Del), 3yo, 6F Achievement (WO), 3yo, 6F Long Branch (Mth), 3yo, 8.5F Ellis Park Turf (Elp), f/m, 8.5F-T Gonzalez (Pln), 2yo f, 5.5F Shine Young Fut (Evd), 2yo, 5.5F Shine Young Fut (Evd), 2yo f, 5.5F Jetta Be Right (FL), f/m, 8.5F Cleveland Gold Cup (Tdn), 3yo, 9F IA Stallion Fut (Prm), 2yo, 5.5F 6 Queen’s Plate (WO), 3yo, 10F Dance Smartly (WO), f/m, 9F-T Highlander (WO), 3&up, 6F-T Singspiel (WO), 3&up, 12F-T United Nations (Mth), 3&up, 11F-T Salvator Mile (Mth), 3&up, 8F Lynbrook (Bel), 2yo, 6F Cypress (LA), f/m, 8.5F Boeing (Emd), f/m, 8F Nevin (Pln), 2yo, 5.5F IA Stallion (Prm), 3yo, 1m70y 8 Dr. James Penney (Prx), f/m, 8.5FT 9 Christiana (Del), 3yo f, 8F-TT Ellen’s Lucky Star (Ind), 3yo f, 8F-T Snack (Ind), 3yo, 8F-T

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10 Nick Shuk (Del), 3yo, 7.5F-T 12 Delaware Hcp (Del), f/m, 10F Fort Delaware (Del), 4&up, 6F Cape Henlopen (Del), 3&up, 12F-T Sweet and Sassy (Del), f/m, 6F Arlington Hcp (AP), 3&up, 10F-T American Derby (AP), 3yo, 9.5F-T Modesty (AP), f/m, 9F-T Stars and Stripes, 3&up, 12F-T Coach Jimi Lee, 3yo, 7F Bowling Green (Bel), 4&up, 12F-T Parx Dash (Prx), 3&up, 5F-T Lady Canterbury (Cby), f/m, 8F-T Mystic Lake Mile (Cby), 3&up, 8F-T New York Derby (FL), 3yo, 8.5F New York Oaks (FL), 3yo f, 8.5F Great Lady M (LA), f/m, 6.5F Claredon (WO), 2yo, 5.5F Lamplighter (Mth), 3yo, 8.5F-T Assault (LS), 3&up, 8F Valor Farm (LS), f/m, 6F TTA Sales Futurity (LS), 2yo, 5F TTA Sales Futurity (LS), 2yo f, 5F Last Dance (Suf), 3&up, 1m70y 13 Bison City (WO), 3yo f, 8.5F Shady Well (WO), 2yo f, 5.5F Cinderella (LA), 2yo f, 6F Willard Proctor (LA), 2yo, 6F Rockville Centre (Bel), 2yo, 6F Colorado Derby (Arp), 3yo, 8.5F CTBA Futurity (Arp), 2yo, 6F

Cincinnatian (Blt), 3yo f, 8.5F Hoover (Blt), 2yo, 5.5F Seattle Slew (Emd), 3yo, 8.5F Klassy Briefcase (Mth), f/m, 5.5F-T Leemat (PID), 3&up, 8F Northern Fling (PID), f/m, 8F 17 Oceanside (Dmr), 3yo, 8F-T 18 Schuylerville (Sar), 2yo f, 6F Sir Cat (Sar), 3yo, 8F CTBA (Dmr), 2yo f, 5.5F 19 Diana (Sar), f/m, 9F-T Sanford (Sar), 2yo 6F San Clemente (Dmr), 3yo f, 8F-T Osunitas (Dmr), f/m, 8.5F-T Arlington Oaks (AP), 3yo f, 9F Nijinsky (WO), 3&up, 9F-T Ontario Damsel (WO), 3yo f, 8F-T Ohio Derby (Tdn), 3yo, 8.5F George Lewis (Tdn), 3&up, 9F Don Bernhardt (Elp), 3&up, 6.5F Desert Vixen (Mth), 3yo f, 8.5F-T Count Lathum (Mth), 3yo, 8.5F-T Prairie Gold Juv (Prm), 2yo, 5.5F Prairie Gld Lassie (Prm), 2yo f, 5.5F Governorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Hcp (Sac), f/m, 8.5F

-more-

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20 CCA Oaks (Sar), 3yo f, 9F Lucky Coin (Sar), 4&up, 5.5F-T Eddie Read (Dmr), 3&up, 9F-T Toronto Cup (WO), 3yo, 9F Duchess (WO), 3yo f, 7F Miss Woodford (Mth), 3yo f, 6F Emerald Express (Emd), 2yo, 6F Mt. Rainier (Emd), 3&up, 8.5F Columbine (Arp), f/m, 8.5F

Prm Hcp (Prm), 3&up, 8.5F Cammack (AP), 3&up, 6F Sierra Starlet (Rui), 3yo f, 5.5F Senorita Fut (Rui), 2yo f, 5.5F First Episode (Suf), f/m, 1m70y

23 Lake George (Sar), 3yo f, 8.5F-T Wickerr (Dmr), 3&up, 8F-T Deputy Minister (WO), 3yo, 7F Indiana Grand (Ind), 3yo f, 8F-T Girls Inc (Ind), f/m, 8.5F-T

27 Haskell (Mth), 3yo, 9F Oceanport (Mth), 3&up, 8.5F-T Monmouth Cup (Mth), 3&up, 8.5 Molly Pitcher (Mth), f/m, 8.5F Matchmaker (Mth), f/m, 9F-T Teddy Drone (Mth), 3&up, 6F Bing Crosby (Dmr), 3&up, 6F Cali Dreamin (Dmr), 3&up, 8.5F-T Shuvee (Sar), f/m, 9F Royal North (WO), f/m, 6F Queen City Oaks (Blt), 3yo f, 9F Angie C (Emd), 2yo f, 6F NM-bred Day (Rui), 5 stakes

24 Quick Call (Sar), 3yo, 5.5F-T

28 Honorable Miss (Sar), f/m, 6F

25 Cougar II (Dmr), 3&up, 12F Curlin (Sar), 3yo, 9F

29 Prince of Wales (FE), 3yo, 9.5F Rainbow Connection (FE), f/m, 5F

26 Jim Dandy (Sar), 3yo, 9F Amsterdam (Sar), 3yo, 6.5F Ontario Matron (WO), f/m, 8.5F Colin (WO), 2yo, 6F San Diego (Dmr), 3&up, 8.5F Fleet Treat (Dmr), 3yo f, 7F Regret (Mth), f/m, 6F

30 Graduation (Dmr), 2yo, 5.5F Coronation Cup (Sar), 3yo f, 5.5F-T Victoriana (WO), f/m, 8.5F

21 Shine Again (Sar), f/m, 7F

31 Evan Shipman (Sar), 3&up, 9F

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July 21 – Santa Rosa meet opens July 22 – Online: Night School July 23 – Online: Woodbine chat July 27 – TV: NBC Haskell July 29 – Online: Night School July 30 – Online: Woodbine chat Aug 1 – Aug HPN Mag release

July 3 – Ellis Park meet opens July 3 – Los Alamitos meet opens July 5 – TV: NBCSN Belmont Oaks July 6 – Night School Tour at Woodbine for Queen’s Plate Day July 6 – Calder meet ends July 6 – TV: FS1 United Nations July 8 – Online: Night School July 9 – Online: Woodbine chat July 10 – Sacramento meet opens July 12 – Lone Star meet ends July 15 – Online: Night School July 16 – Online: Woodbine chat July 17 – Del Mar meet opens July 18 – Saratoga meet opens July 20 – TV: FS1 CCA Oaks/Read

Horse Player NOW hosts Caton Bredar, Katie Gensler, Brian Nadeau & Tom Kelley Live Teaching at Woodbine July 6! PLAY WITH OUR PROS.

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HASKELL INVITATIONAL July 26, 2014

JULY RACE OF THE MONTH

Will the filly Untapable follow Rachel Alexandra’s footsteps? KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HASKELL: Only Bob Baffert’s duo of Roman Ruler and Coil have won the Haskell this past decade without running in at least 1 leg of the Triple Crown. Baffert has been 1st or 2nd in each of the last 8 Haskell editions in which he appeared. This is no place for a rebound as 9 of the last 10 winners exited a 1st or 2nd, the exception was Big Brown, who exited his only career loss. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Verrazano won for the 6th time in 7 starts. The 6-5 chalk powered home by just under 10 lengths as Preakness winner Oxbow faded to fourth after setting the early pace. It was a Pletcher-Baffert exacta sweep in a race they’ve owned.

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HANDICAPPER’S AIDES: Last 10 Winners – Full History ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04

Verrazano Paynter Coil Lookin At Lucky Rachel Alexandra Big Brown Any Given Saturday Bluegrass Cat Roman Ruler Lion Heart

T. Pletcher B. Baffert B. Baffert B. Baffert S. Asmussen R. Dutrow T. Pletcher T. Pletcher B. Baffert P. Biancone

J. Velazquez R. Bejarano M. Garcia M. Garcia C. Borel K. Desormeaux G. Gomez J. Velazquez J. Bailey J. Bravo

Last 10 Winners’ Preps ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04

Verrazano Paynter Coil Lookin At Lucky Rachel Alexandra Big Brown Any Given Saturday Bluegrass Cat Roman Ruler Lion Heart

1st 2nd 2nd 1st 1st DNF 1st 2nd 1st 1st

Pegasus (Mth) Belmont Stakes (Bel) Swaps (Hol) Preakness (Pim) Mother Goose (Bel) Belmont Stakes (Bel) Dwyer (Bel) Belmont Stakes (Bel) Dwyer (Bel) Long Branch (Mth)

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Bad information can be found everywhere. It’s the good stuff that’s tougher to locate and discern. Just because the source of information may seem credible, it doesn’t mean accuracy can be assumed. In the run-up to the Belmont Stakes, California Chrome’s training tandem of Art and Alan Sherman both incorrectly went on the record reciting information that was widely repeated, and easily repudiated. Art said California Chrome’s nasal strips were part of his unbeaten streak, when, in fact, the horse had run sixth with the strip before the streak began. Alan applauded the post in the Belmont Stakes, saying it was a great coincidence that Chome shared the same posts in the Derby, Preakness and Belmont as the one and only Secretariat. That wasn’t even close to correct, and easily dismissed with a 5-second glance at the past charts. Yet, it was repeated many places because from where it came.

The point is not to pick on the Shermans, but to illustrate just how far off “facts” can be when listening to horsemen and taking the words at face value. They do a superb job conditioning and caring for horses in most all cases, but their ability to have a sense of the big picture, or even the handicapping acumen to know how their horse compares to others in a race, is not part of the job description. Sure, they may know their horse is about to run a corker, or might be a race off of their best efforts. Listening to interviews can be beneficial in learning what Horse A might be capable of today. But it always then comes down to YOUR ability to rank and file the horses in a competitive order – because often the trainer of Horse A has no expertise beyond the 4 legs they’re wrapping.

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