HPN Magazine October 2014 by Horse Player NOW

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CONTENTS OCTOBER ‘14 7

From The Publisher

38 Challenge Handicapping

9 The Teaser

Topics that titillate the racing mind.

AQHA handicapper Jennifer Hancock previews the short-line version of the Breeders’ Cup.

11 Prep Files

43 Gold Cup & Saucer:

Brian Nadeau explains what to look for, and how to apply it, when it comes to Breeders’ Cup prep races.

22 Questions for Caton

Renowned handicapper Caton Bredar takes your Qs each issue!

26 Cover Story: Dirt Flies Again at Keeneland

Jeremy Plonk examines the stats that make this aunique, ormaybe not so unique, season in Lexington.

33 Secretaries of States

Handicapping hints and a look at the big state-bred championships this month by Jerry Shottenkirk.

A Must-See Event

Ken Warkentin shows his vast appreciation for Prince Edward Island’s big night of racing.

48 Marching To His Own Beat

Brian W. Spencer catches up with an old friend enjoying retirement.

52 Back to Night School: Trip Handicapping

Legendary players from the best of Night School share their insights.

55 October Calendar

Stakes, key dates, Race of Month

60 Galloping Out

Be careful what you boycott.

From the Publisher If March comes in like a lion and out like a lamb, then October opens with a roar and finishes as a full-fledged, three-ring circus. I can’t think of another month that keeps me hopping more than October – and that includes the Derby-Preakness duo in May.

Keeneland’s 17-day run of live racing in the autumn promises to be as good as it gets, while a return to dirt racing will apparently bring up the ROI of every horseplayer who has lost there over the past 6 years if you believe all the mutterings you’ve heard in the Polytrack era. Oh, to be a dreamer, right?

Contributing Writers Caton Bredar Jennifer Hancock Jerry Shottenkirk Brian Nadeau Brian W. Spencer Ken Warkentin

And then the month comes to a stirring conclusion Oct. 31 with the first of two days at the Breeders’ Cup. Given the event has trimmed to “just” 13 races this year it should cut our preparation time from about 12 hours to 10. Whatever will we do with all that extra time? It has to be post time somewhere. - JP

Editor, Publisher, Designer Jeremy Plonk

Photography Chief Enzina Mastrippolito (Photosbyz) Contributing Photographers Adam Coglianese / NYRA Michael Burns / Woodbine Coady Photography / Charles Town Jim McCue / Maryland Jockey Club Special Thanks: Charlottetown Driving Park

THE TEASER:

From a passing of the hat to Hong Kong phooey Teaser, definition: A male horse used at breeding to Diva-free zones, farms to determine whether a mare is ready to receive a eventually it will stallion. Also, perhaps the most unfulfilling occupation all make sense. in the universe. Here’s Your Big Chance To all the whining horseplayers out there with solutions for every racing ill from short fields, to high takeout, to medication issues, to customer service, to number of racing dates, to ad nauseam…here’s your big chance. Churchill Downs has listed Fair Grounds Race Course in New Orleans with a local real estate yokel wearing a colored jacket. Current asking price: $147 million. A seasoned horseplayer like you ought to be able to organize a syndicate of well-heeled individuals willing to take a crack at running a racetrack. Here’s an idea, why don’t you pool the resources of those guys you hang out with at the track beneath the television

monitors near the hot dog stand? They’ve got oodles of racetrack experience from standing under that same monitor for 20 years (literally, the exact same monitor). Don’t let that gaudy asking price scare you. While $147 million seems like a big number it’s not really that much if you say it fast. Plus, today’s asking price also includes slots and video poker machines. Your syndicate probably could purchase Suffolk Downs for a whole lot less, but what would you be getting? An empty racetrack? These days slots are more important to a track’s survival than horses. Go figure. Churchill bought the place out of bankruptcy for roughly $47 million

in 2004, so they might negotiate. However, if the Calder/Gulfstream peace treaty is any barometer, be prepared for a very long escrow period. Tom Benson, owner of the NFL’s New Orleans Saints and NBA’s Hornets, considered purchasing the track, but said the price was too high. What the hell does he know about horseracing? Your guys under the monitor could turn the joint around in no time flat. Quick, before the pick four begins, pass the hat! Amazing Concept: Less is More! Hong Kong racing long has been a model for the rest of the world. Unfortunately, comparable status is something the world never will achieve. Why? Because the Hong Kong Jockey Club there is the equivalent of the National Football League here, only better. They govern racing via centralized leadership, organized, well funded and community invested. Which one of those attributes can be assigned to a stateside racing ruling body? OK, Teaser gets it. Racing is better in Hong Kong. Of course it is. They

have 1,300 horses, 24 trainers and about as many jockeys to worry about. Plus, they only race two days a week! What a piece of cake. Imagine how invested fans would be if that were the case in the US? Field sizes and wagering interest would explode! The pools would be humungous, just like they are in Hong Kong. Wake up. You’re dreaming. None of that’s going to happen in the US. Especially not while Teaser’s still alive and tickling the fancies of coast-to-coast mares. But here’s an idea ‘made in Honk Kong’ that just might work: How about instead of adding racing dates to already jammed racing seasons, someone, somewhere initiates a two-month break in the action? Hong Kong racing stops from midJuly to mid-September and the move keeps everyone fresh and excited to return to racing. Now, Teaser’s not advocating the elimination of Saratoga and/or Del Mar, but here’s a guess that we could do without some of those frigid January and February Northeast extravaganzas.

Future Plans There’s an old saying that no owner or trainer with a good 2year-old in the barn ever committed suicide. That’s because racing’s all about the future – an uncertain and, therefore, possibly radiant expanse of time when the right horse finally arrives to deliver the ride of a lifetime. In racing hope springs eternal. It has to. When your stated recipe for success is ‘Breed the best to the best and hope for the best,’ optimism is a mandatory ingredient. Fortunately, every year racing gods smile on someone and produce more joy and excitement than ever thought possible. It happened this year with California Chrome’s owners Dumb Ass Partners and trainer Art Sherman. You may recall during Triple Crown season when Steve Coburn and Perry Martin rocketed to national prominence after their horse won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. New to the limelight, Dumb Ass Partners’ 15 minutes of fame was cut short by Coburn’s post-Belmont televised chomp on the hand currently feeding him. However, that faux pas didn’t diminish the high of a lifetime.

The 2014 Derby wasn’t Sherman’s first rodeo. However, it was the first time he’d ever won the biggest and brassiest belt buckle. Because of Art’s respect for the game he realized that only through the fickle finger of fate had he been labeled recipient of a lightning bolt named California Chrome. That’s why despite being one of the main participants in an NTRA pre-Pennsylvania Derby media conference call, the affable 77year-old Sherman wasn’t immediately available. No, Art didn’t go all diva on us. He was busy successfully bidding on a son of Macho Uno who, according to Sherman, looks just like California Chrome. Jennie Rees for USA Today reported the colt cost $160K and is owned by Dr. Edward Allred, proprietor of Los Alamitos. A veteran like Sherman knows the odds against ever having a runner like California Chrome again are massive. However, he also knows that the odds against were just as astronomical when Dumb Ass Partners called to see if Sherman would train their Golden State homebred. That’s why no owner or trainer with a good 2-year-old in the barn ever committed suicide. You just never know. - HPN

So, the Breeders‘ Cup races have been drawn and you‘re just chomping at the bit to print out the past performances and start scuffing them up. It‘s a day you‘ve been waiting for since Mucho Macho Man and Will Take Charge hit the finish line together in last year‘s Breeders‘ Cup Classic. And while the final preps may be in the rearview mirror, they also are the most important piece of evidence to the case that reads ―Who will win each Breeders‘ Cup race this year?‖ But just how do you go about interpreting what you saw? Who is moving forward, who is going in the wrong direction and who is simply struggling to maintain their form? Those aren‘t easy questions, but if you can nail down their

answers, it will go a long way in padding your wallet come October 31 and November 1. So, with that in mind, I‘d like to go over a few areas you should be paying attention to first; second, I‘d like to give a few historical examples that will help further identify what you should be looking for come Breeders‘ Cup 31. After All, It’s Just a Prep! First and foremost, we have to remember that the prep races are just that—they are a means to an end to get a horse some final preparation for the Breeders‘ Cup. In the perfect world, said horse would win or run well in their prep without exceeding so much energy that he or she would be left with a dry

lemon come the Breeders‘ Cup. But as we know in horse racing, things seldom go according to plan. Horses are born to run, and oftentimes they get into a race and instinct and the heat of battle take over and what was supposed to be nothing but a walk in the park or a final tune-up turns into a strenuous, all-out street fight. So before you watch a race and simply say ―X-horse won by 3 lengths and I can‘t see anyone else from that race having a chance at turning the tables on them in the Breeders‘ Cup,‖ make sure to do your due diligence and watch the race a few times to see exactly how it was run. Also take note of the circumference of the racetrack the preps are being run over and how the track was playing on that particular day. Maybe a top sprinter was coming off a two-month layoff and got caught dueling on the inside in a race that was nothing more than a stepping-stone to the Breeders‘ Cup? Maybe a key contender for the Classic drew the far outside post in the Jockey Club Gold Cup,

which is utter doom, and raced wide the entire way and lost so much ground it gave him no chance to run a race indicative of his true talent? Maybe Keeneland reverted back to the pre-Polytrack days and was an inside paved highway, so that closing filly you liked so much going into the Alcibiades really didn‘t run all that badly when she was 6th in the race after rallying from well back in the field early on. These all are things that a novice might overlook, but a shrewd handicapper needs to pay attention to in order to be able to suss out a few hidden gems come Breeders‘ Cup time. Pearl Jam may have turned off a lot of people when their first single off their Binaural album was ―Nothing as It Seems,‖ but a truer thing has never been said in horse racing. We here at Horse Player Now pride ourselves on watching race replays to get trip notes that the casual bettor will simply overlook, or more likely not even see, because they didn‘t watch the race and are simply looking at a name on a piece of paper. And while the mundane,

everyday $10k claimers might be a bit tough (and tedious) to watch on a day-in and day-out basis, there’s not much excuse for not going over each and every BC prep race again and again. Time is clearly on your side; and if you know what you are looking for, you can unearth a ton of live runners that will fall through the wagering cracks come racing‘s biggest day. Gauging the Europeans One of the hardest things for a handicapper to do is get a true line on a horse that has never run in this country. European invaders will begin showing up in the final round of prep races, especially at Belmont and Woodbine, and it‘s just very tricky to get a proper gauge on how good they are and how good the competition they were facing across the pond was. Since we‘re talking about gauging the Breeders‘ Cup prep races and how to view them in light of the big day, I‘m going to break this down into two distinct categories; the European that won their U.S. prep race impressively and the

European that ran okay, but didn‘t really inspire a ton of confidence in their prep race. And what you read in the ensuing paragraphs might surprise you a bit. The first type of horse is the trickiest to read because, in all likelihood, they were facing better horses in Europe and simply caught a group of Americans there for the taking. So, you have to ask yourself ―Was X-horse really as good as he/she looked, or was it simply a case of the class drop doing the trick?‖ I‘m a bit lucky, in that I do the newsletter for the Breeders‘ Cup on a weekly basis and have a very good handle on the Europeans since I recap every foreign group I race that is run from July until the Breeders‘ Cup. But it‘s not like I‘m privy to topsecret information, far from it.

Sites like Racingpost.com will go a long way in helping you get a handle on just how good the Europeans are, so do yourself a favor and sift through the past performances of the

invaders and look up some of the horses they‘ve competed against overseas. Anyone coming out of races at Longchamp, Chantilly, York, Leopardstown, Deauville and Newmarket have likely been facing better horses than their American brethren, if you‘re comparing group/grade I races to each other, and down the class ladder. And while it‘s not the end all be all, you can probably assume that a group II in Europe isn‘t all that far behind a grade I (turf) race here in America. But pay attention to the dreaded ―Euro bounce‖ in the Breeders’ Cup, as many Europeans who come over to America and run huge in their first local start often regress in their second one, usually at short odds, too. I‘ll be much more inclined to cast a wary eye on a European who freaked stateside first-out, because regression could very likely be in the cards.

On the other hand, I‘m much more apt to give a Euro who ran a credible race in their U.S. debut a much longer look in the Breeders‘ Cup because I think it‘s safe to assume the best is yet to come. A lot of horses take time to acclimate to the states, so if a Euro runs a good third or fourth in their debut on our side of the pond, I‘ll look for a lot better in their subsequent start, at what is oftentimes a much better price. Let‘s throw another monkey wrench into the equation and try to rate the European preps, which is even tougher to do. I know, you‘re probably saying ―It‘s hard enough to gauge what I know here in America, how the heck am I supposed to gauge what I don‘t know in Europe?‖ And it‘s a legitimate argument, but not one that is impossible either. The Internet is a wonderful thing and by simply doing a Google search you‘ll likely to be able to find video on any and every European prep race you want. So again, go back

and watch the races and look into the depth of the field. Racingpost.com has a tremendous database and you can type in a horse‘s name and get their lifetime record and the races they‘ve run in, and it allows you to instantly click on their competition and see the same for them as well. But to really get a leg up on the competition you need to take things a step further and ask yourself ―Who is here because the Breeders’ Cup was the main goal all along, or who is here because their connections want to sneak one more race in before the end of the year, regardless of whether their horse is over the top or not?‖ And when you‘re trying to get a gauge on the Europeans, that is often the most important question of all. Listen folks, like it or not, the Breeders‘ Cup is often an afterthought to the majority of European trainers and owners. Arc Day at Longchamp in early October is one of the biggest and most historic stakes-packed days in all the world and the newly created

set of championship races at Ascot two weeks after has become just as prestigious. Point being, most, if not all of the major Europeans are pointing to those two days and therefore, anything after that is just gravy. So just because X-horse romps in a big group I at Longchamp or Ascot doesn‘t mean they are coming over here and holding court on a group of Americans (or fellow Europeans) who are subpar on the class scale. Don‘t forget that. Know Your Horse, Know Your Track Another area I want to get into is one that comes off the tongue of even the most novice of handicappers, but one that can pay big dividends if you apply it correctly – the ‗horse for the course‘ angle, and the racetrack they earned it on. This year (and the past two years) the event has taken place at Santa Anita, so it‘s hardly uncommon to think a California horse who has shown an affinity for the local track will have an edge in the respective Breeders‘ Cup race.

But as much of an angle as that is moving forward when you‘re looking at the Breeders‘ Cup, it‘s just as potent of an angle looking back, when you‘re analyzing the prep races, as many prep winners will be doing so over tracks they are used to and tracks that fit their nuances. Belmont is the prime example and one that bears extreme scrutiny in the Breeders‘ Cup…and Keeneland won‘t be that far behind either. First at Belmont, where the Beldame (a key prep for the Breeders‘ Cup Distaff), Champagne (Juvenile), Frizette (Juvenile Fillies) and Kelso (Dirt Mile) will be route distances, but contested around one turn. Fast-forward to Santa Anita, where all four races—the Distaff, Juvenile, Juvenile Fillies and Dirt Mile—will be contested at two turns. The difference is night and day, but it often gets overlooked.

A one-turn, 1 1/8-mile race at Belmont, like the Beldame, can often play like a seven-furlong sprint because there‘s such a long, straight run down the backstretch before the field gets to the far turn. A one-turn mile is even more sprint-tiered, as horses often will simply run flat out for all eight furlongs. Conversely, get them to Santa Anita and a two-turn race can play out much differently, and things become really dicey in a hurry. I might be a bit premature to jump on Keeneland, as we‘ve yet to see a race run over their newly installed dirt track, but you should pay attention to how the surface plays. If it‘s like the dirt track of old, where essentially anyone who got to the front only improved their position, you might want to take the results with a grain of salt come Breeders‘ Cup time. That is, of course, unless the Santa Anita main track is playing the same.

Too Good For Their Own Good? The last type of horse I want to hit on is the one that runs off the screen in the final prep and delivers an effort that is so far and away above his or her career best that he or she can do nothing but regress at Breeders‘ Cup time. We’ve seen it a lot in the past, but the public never seems to react the right way. On the face of it, they see a horse enter a respective Breeders‘ Cup race with a huge figure, assume they are in career-best form and that they‘ll duplicate (or even move forward) off the big-figure win. And while it makes sense in theory, it rarely happens. I am very, very leery of the horse who freaks in the final prep and runs a figure so far removed from what they‘ve done in the past. Pairing huge figures is rarely done, but moving forward off of them is done even less. It‘s much more likely a horse regresses—and in a big way—than moves forward or maintains their form ... especially when the effort they forth in the

prep is far and above what he or she has done in the past.

Historical Evidence Now that we know what we‘re looking for, and hopefully how to spot it, let‘s brighten things even more by giving some historical evidence. Most of the horses you‘ll see below are very familiar to even the most causal of racing fans / bettors, but nonetheless offer the perfect examples of horses that fit the profile of every angle outlined. After All, It’s Just a Prep: You don‘t have to go back too far to come up with the most famous horse who recently used a prep race to do just that – prep for the biggest race of his life. Trainer Al Stall was on record as saying he was using Belmont‘s Jockey Club Gold Cup as nothing more than a tightener for Blame, the clear-cut best (male) handicap horse in the country in 2010. So while some fans might have been a bit hesitant to play him in the Classic after a listless and well-beaten 2nd-place finish in the Gold Cup (pictured next page vs. Haynesfield),

weeks later and Lailani was sent off as the 5-2 second-choice and didn‘t raise a hoof while finishing a nonthreatening fifth. Euro bounce anyone?

those that kept the faith were rewarded to the tune of $12.40 when Blame handed the immortal Zenyatta her only career defeat in her final race. Gauging the Europeans (Euro Bounce): This one might be stretching your memory a bit, but back in 2001 a 3-year-old filly named Lailani (GB) came from Europe and defeated a good group of older Americans in Belmont‘s Flower Bowl, while running a 111 Beyer (if that‘s your thing). The Filly & Mare Turf was run over the same course and distance four

Gauging the Europeans (Over the Top): You can argue that Coolmore‘s Dylan Thomas (IRE) didn‘t care for the bog that was the Monmouth Park turf course in 2007, but what you can‘t argue is that he was clearly the best turf horse in the world off a resume that included three of Europe‘s biggest group I‘s that year alone – the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth at Royal Ascot, Irish Champion at Leopardstown and historic Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp (the last two leading up to the Turf). But he came to New Jersey just 20 days after his Arc win in Paris and, at 4-

5, didn‘t fire when fifth at Monmouth. Maybe it‘s no coincidence that Coolmore was at it again at Santa Anita in 2012 when Excelebration (IRE) was given the best chance to upset Wise Dan in the Breeders‘ Cup Mile. Heck, some people (OK, your author included) even thought he was the horse to beat after winning consecutive Group 1‘s in Europe (the Jacques le Marois at Deauville and Queen Elizabeth II at Ascot). The problem was that Excelebration was running back just 14 days after winning the Queen Elizabeth II. Anyone get the feeling the Coolmore boys were guilty of going to the well one too many times? Excelebration probably did, as he was a meek fourth to Wise Dan at 2-1. Know Your Horse, Know Your Track: You only have to go back a year to get a great example of just what a horse who likes a particular track can do on racing‘s biggest day. No one is going to confuse Mucho Macho Man with a Hall of Famer and a win machine, but get him over the Santa Anita main

track and he could mask as one. He tipped his hand in 2012, when he was 2nd, beaten just a halflength, in the Classic behind Fort Larned. Then he returned the next year and did even better. Mucho Macho Man prepped with a powerful win over the track in the Grade 1 Awesome Again then held Will Take Charge and Declaration Of War off at an 4-1 in America‘s richest horse race.

Too Good For Their Own Good: Maybe it‘s the New Yorker in me, but two of the biggest examples of a horse running too good for his

own good came at Belmont, when Uncle Mo (pictured previous page) blitzed the field in the 2011 Kelso and Aptitude did the same in the 2001 Gold Cup. Uncle Mo was one of the most talented horses in recent memory, but, after his Kelso win, owner Mike Repole made the mistake of running him in the Classic at 1 ¼ miles, a distance far beyond the son of Indian Charlie‘s scope. But his huge—and fast (he went the mile in 1:33.82 and ran a 118 Beyer)—win in the Kelso skewed the betting public (and his owner) into thinking he could win the Classic, regardless of the distance. Uncle Mo was sent off at 5-1 in a race he couldn‘t win and, well, ran like it – finishing 10th in what would be the last start of his career. Aptitude faced a similar fate after he won the Jockey Club Gold Cup by 10 lengths and ran a 123 Beyer. Sure, the 12-hole going 1 ¼ miles at Belmont in the Classic didn‘t help, but he was bet down to 2-1 and never threatened en route to an eighth-place finish. – HPN

IN YOU’RE

THE MONEY

NO PURCHASE NECESSARY TO ENTER OR WIN. The Promotion registration period begins on or about May 28, 2014 at 12:01 a.m. ET and ends on November 1, 2014 at 8:40 p.m. ET. Promotion is open only to legal residents of the 50 United States & D.C., who are 18 years of age or older. See Official Rules at www.MillonDollarFinish.com for exact registration times for each race, additional eligibility restrictions, prize descriptions/restrictions/ARVs and complete details. Void where prohibited. PROMOTION IS DEVISED AS A NON-GAMBLING PROMOTION AND IS INTENDED SOLELY FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES. Promotion is sponsored by Breeders’ Cup Limited. Breeders’ Cup Limited is the sole sponsor of the Promotion. NBC Sports and NBCUniversal Media, LLC are not sponsors of the Promotion and are not associated with the administration of the Promotion in any way. Entrants are providing information to sponsors and not to NBC Sports and NBCUniversal Media, LLC.

Each issue, weâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;ll take your questions for Caton Bredar, Horse Player NOW analyst, Night School co-host and noted reporter for HRTV. HOW WILL YOU HANDICAP KEENELAND NOW ON DIRT? This is kind of a trick question. The question should always be: How will you handicap Keeneland, or any meet for that matter, period? Regardless of changes to surfaces, you should always enter every new meet with a fresh outlook and open mind, taking into consideration ALL the changes--not just track surface, but also new barns, new types of races, differing weather conditions, new maintenance crew, etc. as well as the history and what's happened in the past--EVEN IF there's been significant changes. For example, if a trainer has done well historically at Keeneland, unless something has happened to change the composition, quality and makeup of his or her barn, I'm going to assume that trainer is going to gear up for the meet again, even though the track is no

longer Polytrack. Trainers excel because they know how to adapt to ever-changing circumstances, track surface just one of many, and, at the same time, do what they always do--train horses to win. Handicappers excel when they can do the same. I'm obviously not going to consider Polytrack sire lines or horse's past history over synthetic tracks quite the way I used to, but, otherwise, I'm going to go horse-by-horse, race-by-race and handicap the same way I always handicap with the goal of assessing the quality, predicting the pace, analyzing patterns and, hopefully, coming up with some winners!

Pose your questions each week in Night School â&#x20AC;&#x201C; or by emailing askcaton@horseplayernow.com!

HOW WILL THE BREEDERSâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; CUP FARE IN 2015 AT KEENELAND? One of my friends who occasionally goes to the races said it best: It's going to a different Breeders' Cup at Keeneland, but it's sure going to be special. I'm biased when I say Keeneland in the fall has always been one of the prettiest, best places to race in the world, but I think a lot of people agree with me. Yes, the weather can vary, but odds are you will get crisp, refreshing weather and ideal conditions for horses from around the world. I believe international horsemen will welcome the change of location and will respond enthusiastically, and I also believe some horsemen who have hesitated to ship all the

way to California also will embrace a central location and conditions. Because of the configuration and size of Keeneland, a lot of changes will be made both to the facility

Pose your questions each week in Night School â&#x20AC;&#x201C; or by emailing askcaton@horseplayernow.com!

and to the operations of the Cup in general, I believe. Based on what I've always experienced at Keeneland, though, there's no reason to believe those changes won't be implemented with style, sophistication and ease …with the focus on the event and racing itself, first and foremost. It may be a more intimate Breeders' Cup, but it still will be the center of attention in every aspect in Lexington, Ky. The community will embrace it, and I believe once the world has come to Keeneland for the event and experiences it for themselves, everyone will embrace it as well. WHAT ARE YOU MOST LOOKING FORWARD TO AT THIS YEAR’S BREEDERS’ CUP? In a very different answer from one year ago, I think I'm most looking forward to seeing racing's new generation of stars. With most of the BC alums retired, this year offers the sport a unique chance for horses to cement their credentials as the stars of their

divisions in just about every category. It's looking more and more like the 3-year-old championship--once a foregone conclusion based on the Triple Crown--may now be decided in the Classic. Any one of several fillies or mares will most likely rise to the top of the heap with a win in the Distaff. The two-year-old races are more open-ended than in any other year in recent memory, with the early Derby favorite most likely coming from one of the juvenile races. But there is one alum who can do what few horses have ever done before--possibly earn a third straight Horse of the Year title, depending, of course, on what happens in other races. More than anything, I am lookiing forward to, and hoping for, a healthy, happy Wise Dan in the Breeders' Cup-something that just a few months ago seemed highly unlikely. He's already beaten the odds and won America's heart; I'm pretty sure I share that answer with everyone.

Follow me @CBredar

Pose your questions each week in Night School – or by emailing askcaton@horseplayernow.com!

The dirty word at Keeneland since 2006 has been Polytrack, and ironically itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s the return of dirt that supposedly will cleanse the wagering palate of many who fled for more familiar betting ground. The 2014 Fall Meet will be the first autumn stand since 2005 contested over a natural dirt surface. The natural curiosity of horseplayers is: How will things change? Believe it or not, my research says not very much. After the 2008 Spring Meeting, with public outcry and betting handle respectively loud and soft, Keeneland contracted me to try and figure out why. My point then, and remains now, is that you have

to identify facts of whatâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s happening on the racetrack and not rely on the recollection of customers whose feelings rise and fall with the wagering tides. I gathered every set of past performances and every chart of the races that had been held on Polytrack and turf to that point. Eventually it morphed into an electronically updated database known as Polycapping, which has been free on the Keeneland site ever since. What the data allowed me to do was to see exactly who was winning, how they were winning and try to connect dots as to why they were winning. Over time, the process worked. Keeneland not only grew back its handle losses, but it experienced

all-time meet record handles late in the Polytrack era. The war against the stigma had been won in the context of people wanting to bet the daily product. But for whatever reason – some opine to lure the Breeders’ Cup home to Lexington, which makes the most sense – Keeneland returns to dirt this season and we are somewhat back to square one in our research. Just as I did in 2008, recently it was time to re-stack the papers, run the numbers and take a look at what success looked like at Keeneland – this time during the 2005 Fall Meet, the last time we saw the dirt oval in the autumn. Because of my intimate knowledge of the trends and patterns, it was a quick-developing realization as I played “Can you guess the winner?” in looking back at the past results. Knowing what I know now, that I didn’t know back then (as the saying goes), I would see a mid-level claimer on the main track and say immediately, “Arlington horses.” Sure enough, time and again, I quickly realized that almost all the same patterns that existed during

the Polytrack era were played out on the dirt in the 2005 Fall Meet as well. Granted, a lot has changed geopolitically in racing since then – Presque Isle now exists, River Downs doesn’t; Arlington was dirt then, now it’s Polytrack; Turfway was THE place to be in Kentucky in September, now that calendar page has given way to Churchill Downs and the exploded purses at Kentucky Downs. I know Keeneland’s pre-Polytrack reputation was basically shooting fish in a barrel, picking the early speed horse and going to the window with confidence. Easy game. Not so fast. 2005 Fall 9.15 27.5% 7.12/1 0-8 1-21 10.8%

Fact

Poly Fall Field Size 10.04 Fav Win% 31.6% AvgWinOdds 6.98/1 Stakes Favs 16-69 2yoMSWfavs 64-155 %15/1+Wins 9.5%

Despite a sizable difference in field size being lower, the 2005 Fall Meet races on dirt weren’t any easier to decipher despite a public outcry that it was the Polytrack that was a Keeneland conundrum. In fact, they were considerably harder to get by most any metric.

First, let me be candid and say that I totally did not expect those results. Like many, my use of memory recalled a time when racing at Keeneland seemed simpler. But it wasn’t. It’s good now to have the facts to back it up. Even in the face of much Polytrack scrutiny, I argued that Keeneland’s melting pot of tracks feeding the short-length meeting was the culprit of confusion. When more than 20 different feeder tracks produce WINNERS at a 15-day meeting, it’s an exceptional challenge for handicappers unlike any other venue in America. I thought it was the duplicity of the Polytrack that was the lure of so many horses from so many places. Connections thought they could win races on a neutral field that brought together dirt and turf animals and leveled the playing field. Or so the theory. So imagine my surprise when I charted all the winners from the 2005 Fall Meeting at Keeneland on the dirt and turf surfaces. ‘05 Fall 27

Fact # of Prep Locales for Winners

‘13 Poly 22

That’s right, there were MORE locales represented by winners during the last dirt/turf Kee Fall Meet than the most recent Poly/turf Fall Meet. Keeneland’s melting pot preceded the Polytrack era. It’s truly remarkable when you consider that 156 races during the ’05 Fall Meet were won by horses from 27 different venues. And which feeder track produced far and away the most dirt winners at that ’05 Fall stand? Turfway Park with 33, every single one of which was making a Polytrack to dirt surface change since TP had gone to synthetics already by that point. 2005 Fall Winning Prep Locales Dirt Wins 33 12 11 10 9 5

Track Turfway Park Keeneland (2nd sts) Arlington Park Saratoga Belmont Monmouth

The thought that Polytrack ran the New York horses out of Keeneland in the Fall really doesn’t carry weight, and it probably should be a foreshadow that we won’t see many of them this Fall on dirt.

Turf, that’s a different matter. Just as it was throughout the Polytrack era, the NYRA circuit remains a solid place to look for Keeneland turf winners…but hardly a cavalry charge of runners making the trek with the Belmont championship meet in swing at the same time. 2005 Fall Winning Prep Locales Turf Wins 6 5 4 4 3

Track Kentucky Downs Belmont Saratoga Arlington Park Delaware Park

Now, let’s look at the most recent ’13 Fall Meet in terms of grass production and where the winners exited preps. 2013 Fall Winning Prep Locales Turf Wins 5 5 3 3 3

Track Churchill Downs Kentucky Downs Presque Isle Belmont Woodbine

Dirt or Polytrack, it appears that you’ll see much of the same that we’ve seen for years at Keeneland. It’s going to be a crazy melting pot of horses from all over the country

with more than two dozen winners coming from different final prep locations. Trainer Turnover Some major makeovers in the training colony will make this year’s Fall Meet different than the last we saw on dirt in ’05. Gone are the likes of Hall of Famer Bobby Frankel and Bob Holthus, who since have passed. Frank Brothers and John Ward have retired. Nick Zito was the top hand in the win column in ’05 at Keeneland, but his stable has lost most of its powerful owners and become a shadow of itself. The same can be said for the likes of Neil Howard and Carl Nafzger, now operating on a much smaller scale this time around. Patrick Biancone has not been statistically relevant since his run-ins with the medication police, but once was a Keeneland force. Guys like Kenny McPeek, Wesley Ward and Mike Maker have ruled the roost at Keeneland in the Polytrack era, but were nonexistent in the ''05 Fall Meet... not registering a single win. Two names to watch in the training game for the return to dirt are

Steve Asmussen (pictured right) and Larry Jones. Both were highly successful at the end of the dirt era and did not support the Polytrack program with much zeal after their initial failures. Asmussen was the king of 2-year-olds in the ’05 Fall, winning no less than 5 baby races … and judging by his September domination of the juvenile ranks at Churchill Downs, he appears to be in a similar fold as Keeneland returns to dirt. Jones won 5 races during the ’05 Fall on dirt, including a pair of 2YO baby races. Other trainers I’ll be expecting to see more from on the dirt: Tom Amoss Dale Romans Brad Cox Kellyn Gorder Eddie Kenneally Dallas Stewart Bernie Flint It will be interesting to see the results from Graham Motion and Wayne Catalano, whose Polytrack support in the Fall had been highly productive. While both are more than capable and successful dirt trainers, they have a decent amount of their stable stock vested in turf and synthetic-pedigreed runners.

Notable Stuff Only 2 of 120 dirt races during the ’05 Fall Meet were won by Ellis Park preppers (all in claiming/ maiden claiming) … The average winner in the 8 dirt stakes at the ’05 meeting paid $22.35 as favorites struck out … Longshots ruled the 2YO MSWs on dirt with average win odds of 9.5-to-1 … First-time starters won 5 of the 22 juvenile maiden races at the ’05 Fall Meet on dirt … Of the 19 dirt winners at ’05 Fall who prepped on the NYRA circuit, only 3 came in claiming/maiden claiming races … Kentucky Downs ran only a 6-day meet in 2005 to feed the Keeneland stand, and its 8 winners included 2 stakes and 4 allowances.

- HPN

Regional stars like Benâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Cat shine in state-bred showcases By Jerry Shottenkirk

Temperatures drop, leaves turn and Thoroughbred owners and breeders get ready to reap the rewards of developing their own breeding program as well

as that of the state in which they live. Tis the season for the statebred championship days, and there is no shortageâ&#x20AC;&#x201C;especially in the middle of this month.

The lineup includes:  Classics Night at Remington Park (Friday, Oct. 17). It‟s a showcase for Oklahoma-breds and includes 8 divisional races worth more than $1M;  Jim McKay Maryland Million Day at Laurel Race Course (Saturday, Oct. 18). Marylandbreds get after this long-time fixture, which includes 9 races worth more than $1M;  Empire New York Showcase Day at Belmont Park (Saturday, Oct. 18). The NYbreds gather to race for more than $1.75M through 8 races;  West Virginia Breeders Classics at Charles Town (Saturday, Oct. 18). C-Town welcomes state-breds for 9 races worth more than $1.2M;  New Mexico Cup Day at Zia Park (Sunday, Oct. 26). New Mexico-breds (Thoroughbreds and Quarter Horses) travel to Hobbs for a dozen races worth $2M.

Other state-bred events include the Best of Ohio at Belterra Park on Saturday, Oct. 4 (5 races worth $750,000 for Ohio-breds), and next month you can look for Indianabreds getting the call through 4 races worth a total of $500,000 at Indiana Grand on Nov. 1; and the Gulfstream Park Million Preview (eight $75,000 races) on Nov. 8. Favorite Sons and Daughters If you don‟t like chalk, turn away. If the idea of betting chalk or trying to beat prohibitive choices in the straight pools makes you queasy, it may not be for you. But most of us are game enough to take a shot. In these days of multi-race plays and dime supers, a player can get very creative. Some horses can compete against open company and when they turn back to state-breds, they are usually treated as a no-miss. But they do miss, occasionally. Connections often bypass more difficult open races for “easy money.” But sometimes, the degree of difficulty is higher than expected.

One of the most unusual races came in the 1994 Oklahoma Classics Day Classic at Remington Park. I‟ve seen a vast majority of the more important races there since the track opened in 1988, and this one was the wildest – but also marked the career end for an outstanding horse. Brother Brown, a son of Oaklawn Handicap winner Eminency, was second in a run of three Oklahomabreds or foals that could compete anywhere. First, there was Clever Trevor, who won the G1 Arlington Classic and G3 Saint Paul Derby prior to a runner-up finish to Easy Goer in the G1 Travers. And then there was Brother Brown, followed by Silver Goblin, a runnerup to Cigar in the G1 Oaklawn Handicap. Clever Trevor ran before the Classics program was founded and Silver Goblin was not eligible for the program. Brother Brown had won the 1993 Classic under Hall of Famer Pat Day (pictured), perhaps the mostplayed jockey between either

coast. Brother Brown won the ‟93 edition as the 2-5 favorite and trainer Ron Goodridge used it as a springboard to bigger open races. Early ‟94 was a gem for Brother Brown, who won the G3 New Orleans Handicap, and followed with a third in the G2 Oaklawn Handicap and then won the G2 Washington Park Handicap at AP. Despite a six-month layoff going into the ‟94 Classics, Brother Brown wasn‟t about to be anything but 19. Pat Day returned, and a courageous group of seven challenged the „mortal lock.‟ This edition of the Classic didn‟t end well for Brother Brown. He battled through moderate fractions for the quarter and half-mile, and the large crowd groaned as Day stood up and pulled up the heavy favorite. The Oklahoma-bred champ was injured. While not lifethreatening, it was enough to make it the last race of Brother Brown‟s career, which showed him

with a 20: 14-2-3 record and earnings of $791,448.

Tote-smashing payoffs aren‟t the rule, even when the mighty fall.

As a result, the winner was a long shot. His name: Axle Lode. His ATB payoff: $133.80, $43.80 and $11. He was trained by Troy Sanderson and had entered the stakes race coming off an eighth-place finish for a $20,000 claiming tag. Axle Lode was third behind 1-5 fillies and mares in the next two Classics: Slide Show in 1995 and Belle of Cozzene in 1996.

Ben‟s Cat, in all of his $2.1-million earnings glory, has lost a Maryland Million race, which some players might find hard to believe. He‟s had far more positives than negatives, but we know automatic victories do not exist in events that are deeper than walkovers.

Axle Lode raced until he was 12 and made his last start at the now defunct The Woodlands in Kansas. He won 18 of 107 starts and $223,382, and for a day, he was king. Fortunately, it doesn‟t always take a career-ending injury to get a heavy favorite to lose in such a race. More times than not, the favorites do very well. Like Brother Brown, several others have come into state-bred races as unqualified successes against open foes. The result is usually a 1-5 or 2-5 price on the tote board.

Last year, Roadhog took on the mighty Ben‟s Cat in the Maryland Milllion Turf and escaped with a neck victory (click to watch).

In defense of Ben‟s Cat, the race was at one mile, not the sprint distances he‟s dominated. Entering that race, Ben‟s Cat owned the Turf Sprint at 5 ½ furlongs. Breeder-trainer King T. Leatherbury didn‟t start the Parker‟s Storm Cat until he was 4, and after just a few starts he won the 2010 Turf Sprint

by 4 ½ lengths at 6-5 odds. He followed with a 1-2 win in 2011, and a score at 2-5 in 2012. You cannot think about statebred days without thinking about the Maryland Million and Ben‟s Cat. Handling the Heavyweights Favorites have more good luck than bad when it comes to statebred races. Odds are often too low for straight betting, so exactas, trifectas, superfectas and multirace plays are probably the better options. While short-priced favorites often are successful, they can take the run out of other contenders. If a 25 shot outruns other speed horses, that other “speed” often retreats and many times plodders can be along for a piece of the gimmicks. Another thing to consider is level of competition. A change from open company to state-breds doesn‟t automatically move up a horse. Some state-bred races are actually tougher than open, depending on the track. If a horse beats fellow state-breds in stakes races, he can

Lucy's Bob Boy figures to be a standout in the WV Breeders Classics off his win in the Ramey Hcp. probably do the same to a horse that‟s coming out of open allowance races. Generally, open stakes wins are better than statebred stakes wins, but not always. You have to appreciate heavy chalk. You just have to know how to approach it. Since a lot of money is merged as horses are in the gate and often re-configured during the running of a race, the odds can change. If you have it in your mind that a horse should be 1-5 and he‟s 3-5 with a minute to post, chances are he‟s probably going to drop down to where you bel ieve he should be.

– HPN

Challenge Handicapping

The AQHA Challenge Championships offers handicappers the opportunity to test their skills and be rewarded. By Jennifer K. Hancock The 22nd annual AQHA Challenge Championships returns to Prairie Meadows in Altoona, Iowa, Oct. 18. Modeled after Thoroughbred racingâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Breedersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; Cup races, the Challenge Championships were designed to give older horses a place to showcase their talents. Horses are nominated to the program through a nomination fee that increases from $300 for weanlings to $20,000 for horses 3 years old or older. Horses qualify for the championships by winning regional races held across the country and in Mexico, Canada and Brazil. The October 18 card features 12 stakes races with purses worth

more than $1.3 million highlighted by the running of the $350,000 Challenge Championship (G1) for older sprinters racing at the classic distance of a quarter mile. The Grade 1 Challenge Championship offers a berth to the Champion of Champions at Los Alamitos in December and is one of the biggest races for older American Quarter Horses of the year. The race has been a stepping stone to year-end champion honors for older runners for the past two decades. The Challenge Championship card offers handicappers the opportunity to test their

handicapping skills and find good prices. With horses shipping to Prairie Meadows from tracks across the country, it’s the perfect time to review some Quarter Horse racing handicapping tips. Not knowing if a track has a bias can hurt a handicapper unfamiliar with a new track. Prairie Meadows offers free statistics at its website by clicking the racing link. Look for the Quarter Horse Meet link under Horsemen’s Info. The $125,000 Red Cell Distance Challenge Championship (G1) is an 870-yard race. Prairie Meadows is a one-mile oval, and inside post positions have historically had an advantage in “hook races.” Through September 14, Prairie Meadows has conducted 11 races at 870 yardsor longer distances. Post positions 1,2 and 6 have each had three winners from those 11 races. Statistically, more than 80 percent of the winners have come from those three positions. Post 4 has had two

winners. When handicapping the Distance Championship, I will definitely be accounting for post positions with my top choice. Looking at races under 870 yards shows that from 109 races contested at Prairie Meadows through September 14, the 1 post has the highest win percentage at 18.35 percent. Occasionally, the inside post will be slower due to a deeper track where Thoroughbred and Quarter Horses race at the same track. This does not appear to be the case at Prairie Meadows. Only 13 races have featured a full field of 10 horses this meet, but so far no winners have come out of the 10 hole. In a game of making the most out of percentages, these stats might make a difference while handicapping the Challenge Championship field. Post positions will be drawn October 15 for the Challenge Championship races. Utilizing leading trainer/jockey stats has helped many handicappers

gain an edge with their picks. The current leading jockeys at Prairie Meadows as of September 14 are Cesar Gomez with 23 wins, Stormy Smith with 16 wins and David E. Brown with 14 wins. In 2012, Smith, had a big night on the undercard of the Challenge Championship, which was held the night before the big event, when he rode four stakes winners. The undercard races are dominated by local horses and it makes sense that a top local rider would have an advantage in securing the best mounts. With more than a million dollars on the line, expect the big guns to invade the jockâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s room. G. R. Carter Jr., John Hamilton and Cruz Mendez are the national leaders in races won. Cody Jensen and Ramon Sanchez are ranked second and third respectively behind Carter in money earned. The best usually ride the best so my handicapping will not ignore which horses these top jockeys

chose for the big dance. The American Quarter Horse Association offers free leaders lists at www.aqharacing.com. The last berths to the Challenge Championship were earned at Prairie Meadows on September 13. These hot horses will be competing in October against horses that might have earned a berth in South America in February or Mexico in March. I like horses that have had an out over the track and even more so if they have proven a winner over a surface, but donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t count out the invaders. Some of the stakes will feature horses that qualified through trial races such as the Altoona Derby and Jim Bader Futurity and are not part of the Challenge Race Program. These races give handicappers the opportunity to compare times over the Prairie Meadows surface. Many of the horses racing in the Challenge Championship races will ship in for the big event.

Shippers fared well in 2012 when the Challenge Championships first visited Iowa. Rylees Boy came from California to win the Challenge Championship; All About Larry earned a berth in Texas and shipped in to win the Distance Challenge; Ultimate Wave came from Colorado to win the Derby Challenge and Distaff Challenge winner Fredaville earned her berth in Oklahoma. The home track was not shut out though as Smith guided Heroes Heart to victory in the Juvenile Challenge. The Challenge Championships gives American Quarter Horse owners and breeders the opportunity to compete for bragging rights when horses from across the world converge at Prairie Meadows. The event offers handicappers the chance to cash in at the windows while predicting the winners among the America’s fastest horses.

SATURDAY, OCT. 18 PRAIRIE MEADOWS 2014 Bank of America® Challenge Championships; 12 races including the finals of the following championship stakes: $350,000 Bank of America® Challenge Championship (G1) $200,000 Adequan Derby Challenge Championship (G3) $150,000 John Deere Juvenile Challenge Championship (G2) $100,000 Merial Distaff Challenge Championship (G1) $100,000 Red Cell Distance Challenge Championship (G1) $75,000 Pfizer Starter Allowance Challenge Championship 2014 Host Site

Prairie Meadows Racetrack and Casino Jennifer K. Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Association’s Racing Aces Fan Education team. Her resume includes working asMeadows a racehorse groom, the press box 1 Prairie Drive coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park, the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing Altoona, IA at50009 Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer her own Lone Oak Marketing. Website:

www.prairiemeadows.com Phone: 1-800-325-9015

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Gold Cup & Saucer: A Must-See Event By Ken Warkentin

The prestigious Gold Cup & Saucer at Red Shores Charlottetown Driving Park has not only evolved into the premier race in Atlantic Canada, it’s also one of the great events in all of harness racing, and fittingly caps off Old Home Week on Prince Edward Island. This year’s race (Aug. 16) offered a record purse of $75,000, more than 20,000 crammed into historic Charlottetown Driving Park (established in 1888) and legendary track announcer Vance Cameron revved the crowd with his signature “Boom! Just like that!” Nothing compares to the magic and emotion of the Gold Cup & Saucer post parade when Faith McKenney

sings the Island Hymn, honoring the athletes, and the rich history of the race and the sport, each horse is introduced under spotlight and the drivers salute accordingly. I was fortunate to be part of the simulcast show for the second straight year. It’s a fun and busy week of doubleheaders, special presentations, warm hospitality and the best seafood! The event is all about traditions. It’s the way it was, and thankfully, the way it still is.

The Gold Cup & Saucer goes back to the roots of harness racing, recognizing and appreciating those who have contributed to the sport, as well as the people who support the industry and keep it thriving today. The people there love their harness racing and it’s imbedded in their culture. Horsemen ship in from all over the Maritimes and the competition is fierce. Winning a race during Old Home Week takes on added significance; the winner’s circle is crowded with family/friends, and celebrations are aplenty. It all began in 1960, founded by Frank Acorn and Bill Hancox, and

the name of the race is a combination of two famous races – the Cheltenham Gold Cup in England and The Cup & Saucer Stakes in Ontario, and the inaugural running won by Dee’s Boy & Lloyd MacAuley was a big success. Soon, some glamour was added to the race with eight young ladies chosen to represent each finalist, wearing costumes made from racing silks. Each Gold Cup & Saucer Ambassador annually draws a horse from the race and the girls keep a busy schedule promoting the event. Also, the Gold Cup & Cup Saucer Parade, held since 1962 on the

Friday before the race in downtown Charlottetown, highlights the importance of the province’s racing industry and showcases the Island’s heritage. The town virtually shuts down and 50,000 line the streets.

of Famer Wally Hennessey in the sulky. Emotions were high in 2008 when 59-year-old Maritimes legend Earl Smith became the oldest driver to win it with Pownal Bay Matt in 1:53.4.

The PEI Family Fun Fair features livestock and horse shows, Part Shark would lower the track agricultural exhibits and record to 1:51 with rising star Scott competitions, Sounds of the Island Zeron driving in 2010. concerts and amusement rides. Hotels are booked 55 years of Gold Cup & Saucer The father and son far in advance and history has produced a starcombo of Dr. Ian the restaurant studded storybook of notable Moore and Tyler patios are full. achievements…and record Moore equaled that crowds in a carnival-like 55 years of Gold mark in 2012 with atmosphere cheering on the Cup & Saucer Eighteen. Dr. Moore best the sport has to offer. history has drove his first Gold produced a starCup & Saucer studded storybook of notable winner in 1988 with The achievements and milestones, a long Papermaker. list of champions, heart-stopping finishes, and record crowds in a Trainers from other parts of Canada carnival-like atmosphere cheering on and the US have sent horses to the best the sport has to offer. Charlottetown in search of that elusive Gold Cup & Saucer trophy, PEI Sports Hall of Fame member and to just be a part of the Mike MacDonald’s upset with Sandy atmosphere and the hoopla. Hanover in 1995 was his record fifth win as a driver. Escape The News, trained by the powerful Ron Burke Stable, and with In 2004, Driven To Win established Charlottetown’s leading driver Marc a new Maritime record of 1:51.2 Campbell, set a new track record of with Charlottetown native and Hall 1:50.4 in 2013. Ron Burke’s father Mickey Burke stated through post-

race tears it was not only one of his greatest wins, but the most memorable trip he’d ever taken and vowed to return. The Burke’s were indeed back in 2014 with the favorite and Trial 1 winner Aracache Hanover and Take It Back Terry. It was a battle of powerhouse stables as Rene Allard had three trainees to contend with, and another prominent Pennsylvania-based trainer, Chris Oakes, sent out two finalists. Allard’s Mickey Hanover equaled the track record of 1:50.4 in Trial 2, but drew post eight for coowner/driver Daniel Dube, who had made a special trip from New York. When the dust settled, Bigtown Hero equaled the 1:50.4 track standard in an 8-1 upset. It was a thrill of a lifetime for the Quebecborn Allard, who also finished third with Island Jet. The winning sixyear-old by American Ideal was a private purchase the day before the draw for the Trials (eliminations) for Allard’s parents Danielle and Michel, and Ives Sarrazin. Allard’s father, Michel had flown in for the race and arrived just 15 minutes before post time, which is always at midnight.

For driver Brad Forward, a native of Newfoundland, the victory was a last-minute call to duty and a lifechanging trip to the Charlottetown winner’s circle. An emotional Forward declared it the most exciting win in his life and nothing compared to it. The Gold Cup & Saucer is not only a must see for harness racing fans, it’s a popular attraction at the height of the allimportant tourist season on beautiful Prince Edward Island. Red Shores Racetrack & Casino is all decked out, from the elegant Top of the Park Dining Room and it’s award-winning culinary team, the Francis McIsaacand Drive for Charity events, the action-packed doubleheaders, the fan-friendly promotions and the traditions. The Gold Cup & Saucer at Red Shores Racetrack & Casino is a major highlight at one of Atlantic Canada’s leading entertainment destinations, offering racing, dining, gaming, tradition and a unique Island experience. There is nothing like Showtime at Charlottetown!

- HPN

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MARCHING TO HIS OWN BEAT By Brian W. Spencer With well-publicized stories of horses with much higher profiles getting lost in the shuffle after their racing days are over, it is easy to imagine how a horse like Silver Drummer could have gotten lost. A six-time winner from 74 career starts with earnings $242 shy of $100,000, he broke his maiden in his sixth lifetime start as the 2-1 favorite but would head to post as the public's choice just one more time in his final 68 races. A classic racetrack underdog, he was sent off at higher than 20-1 in 31 starts while grinding out small paychecks from his 17 superfecta finishes. When his form soured badly throughout the second half of a 2005 campaign that saw him beaten an average of more than 25 lengths through his last five starts

of the year, it was time for a change. In stepped trainer Jon Cowan and co-owner Dave Harris (pictured above with Silver Drummer) in November of 2005 to purchase the underachiever for $1,000. Harris had been introduced to thoroughbred racing through a chance meeting with Cowan, who

stabled racehorses at the same farm at which Harris's daughter, now a competitive hunter and jumper rider, would ride. Cowan invited Harris to the track to watch morning workouts, piquing his interest. Their friendship grew, and not long after, Harris received a call from Cowan and they discussed purchasing “Drummer,” as he's referred to now. “Jon called me and just said, 'Dave, we've got to get this horse,'” Harris recalled. “When we brought him to the farm in Pleasant Prairie, Wisconsin, he was underweight so we just let him have a few months of R&R and let him be a horse. “He put on some weight and was in much better shape when we took him back to the track.” A non-threatening sixth in his first race for his new connections, Drummer won his second race back at Hawthorne, returning $31.80. After holding his form for several more starts, he once again

tailed off near the end of the campaign, and after 15 races in 2006 for his new team, the time came for Drummer to leave racing behind him in December of 2006. “He just wasn't running well anymore, so I brought him back to the farm in Wisconsin,” said Harris. “He had run 72 times over five years and really earned it. He deserved to have us say that he had done enough.” As racehorses are wont to do, however, Drummer had a different plan. “I got a call from Jon one day in the winter after we retired him, and he said 'Have you seen what Drummer does in the paddock?'” Harris laughs and continues, “He was just standing out in the paddock always trying to get horses to race him. “We decided that we would give him one more shot on the track because he hadn't really seemed to settle in to being retired the way we had hoped.”

Drummer returned to the track in March of 2007 and promptly won his first race back in early April at odds of 36-1 (pictured center). He returned to finish a badly beaten fifth 17 days later, leading Cowan and Harris to determine that at age nine, he was going to do his best running with lengthy breaks between starts, and four months after the first attempt, Drummer was retired a second time. As though he had been initiating races at the farm to get back to the track just to prove a point, Drummer had no such issues adjusting to the retired life the second time around. “The second time we retired him, he settled right into it and became a part of the herd out in the paddock. He was out there with a couple of other thoroughbreds and they would just gallop around the

paddock shoulder to shoulder,” said Harris. “The first time we had plans to retire him, he still wanted to race, but the second time we tried, it was like his mentality changed and he was just happy to be a horse and not race anymore.” Now 16 years old, Drummer lives a wellearned life of leisure at the same Pleasant Prairie, farm at which he first arrived, underweight, nearly nine years ago. Now more interested in carrots, eating grass, and finding new ways to relax than he is in attempting to organize unsanctioned farm races, Drummer is never far from his human best friend Dave Harris, who lives 5 minutes down the road. “He's really a neat, smart horse. You know, you can never know

exactly what these animals are thinking,” said Harris, “but the one thing I always find funny is that even though he has adjusted so well to being retired and is enjoying himself so much, every now and then I think there's always a part of him that's still going to be a racehorse.” “The ringtone on my cell phone is the call to post,” Harris explained, “and I swear to you, every time I get a call when I'm around him, he perks up and gets really focused on that noise. I've never seen him react to anyone else getting a call. Maybe it's nothing and I'm reading too much into it, but part of me really thinks that he hears that and wonders if it's time to go to the races.” “I've always had a great bond with him from the very beginning when we were giving him time off right after we bought him. I came out here almost every day to groom him, feed him, and spend time with him, and it got to the point where

he would see my car coming down the drive and he would run across the paddock and wait for me every day. That's what led me to break the first rule of owning horses: don't get attached. He just got under my skin and I decided I was going to take care of him for good.” When asked what made Silver Drummer unforgettable – the kind of horse who could not be sent off to retirement at any other farm or given away to any other owner, Harris doesn't have a grand answer, but he has the one that matters most for Drummer: “I don't know. I just like him.” - HPN

This month’s topic of review:

TRIP HANDICAPPING Since 2011, Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races. Through live chats, videos and radio simulcasts, the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers. In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine, we go “Back to Night School” with a look at some of the high points of past lessons.

“Trip Handicapping” puts your eyes to the test and matches them against your handicapping competition. What’ seen in each race, and how it’s interpreted and then forwardly applied, is what separates trip handicapping from many other less-interpretive aspects of picking a winner. All Night School archives on any subject remain available free to read, listen and view. In this “Back to Night School” edition, we’ll sample some of the best moments from the past three seasons as we have discussed trip handicapping races.

Trip Handicapping Radio Discussion:

Equibase chart caller Keith Feustle and Saratoga-based handicapper Nick Tammaro provided one of the more descriptive and informative discussions on Trip Handicapping we’ve ever had in our Sept. 2, 2014 lesson. Feustle: “You have to be cognizant and catch any trouble … where were they on the track and how did they finish? I know as a gambler myself, that’s what I want to see in the chart… and did they run into any trouble?” Listen in.

Check out our 2013 fulllength Trip Handicapping video to help you learn what to look for in several aspects of the pursuit.

Additional Night School Links 2012 season Trip Handicapping live chat. 2011 season Trip Handicapping live chat. Guests included: Andy Serling, Dan Illman.

COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL! TUESDAYS, 8:30 PM ET OCTOBER 7 RACING’S TOWN HALL MEETING

OCTOBER 14 AQHA CHALLENGE SEMINAR

Our 3rd annual meeting between racing execs and the horseplayers gives you a chance to be heard.

We analyze the races for the AQHA Challenge & discuss general strategies for shortline handicapping. OCTOBER 21 IDENTIFYING KEY RACES Key races are those proven to produce results with their nextout starters. Learn to get a jump on them!

OCTOBER 28 BREEDERS’ CUP SEMINAR

LOOK AHEAD: NOV 4 ELECTION NIGHT: HORSEPLAYERS

A day after the BC races are drawn, our experts help you land a winner for the big day to come.

As the nation goes to the polls, we survey the class on several hotbutton topics within the game today.

CLICK FOR MORE

Visit Horseplayernow.com for the racing industry’s FREE national online fan education program.

Point Given / Photos By Z

OCTOBER 2014 1 IN-bred showcase (Ind), 4 stakes 3 Alcibiades (Kee), 2yof, 8.5F Phoenix (Kee), 3&up, 6F

4 Shadwell Mile (Kee), 3&up, 8F-T Breedersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; Futurity (Kee), 2yo, 8.5F First Lady (Kee), f/m, 8F-T TCA (Kee), f/m, 6F

Woodford, 3&up, 5.5F-T Champagne (Bel), 2yo, 8F Frizette (Bel), 2yof, 8F Hill Prince (Bel), 3yo, 9F-T Temperence Hill (Bel), 3&up, 13F City of Hope Mile (SA), 3&up, 8F-T LA Woman (SA), f/m, 6.5F SA Sprint Champ (SA), 3&up, 6F Swingtime (SA), f/m, 8F-T Indiana Derby (Ind), 3yo, 8.5F Indiana Oaks (Ind), 3yof, 3yof, 8F Schaefer Mile (Ind), 3&up, 1m70yd FSS-In Reality (GP), 2yo, 8.5F FSS-My Dear Girl (GP), 2yof, 8.5F Durham Cup (WO), 3&up, 9F Armed Forces (GP), 2yo, 8F-T Our Dear Peggy (GP), 2yof, 8F-T NY Breeders Fut (FL), 2yo, 6F 5 Spinster (Kee), f/m, 9F Bourbon (Kee), 2yo, 8.5F-T Futurity (Bel), 2yo, 6F Matron (Bel), 2yof, 6F Grey (WO), 2yo, 8.5F Mazarine (WO), 2yof, 8.5F Surfer Girl (SA), 2yof, 8F-T Zuma Beach (SA), 2yo, 8F-T Harris Farms (Fno), 3&up, 6F 8 Jessamine (Kee), 2yof, 8.5F-T 10 Franklin County (Kee), f/m, 5.5F-T

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (8:30 pm ET) in Night School!

11 Queen Eliz II Cup (Kee), 3yof, 9F-T Cal Distaff (SA), f/m, 6.5F-T Knickerbocker (Bel), 3&up, 9F-T Victorian Queen (WO), 2yo, 6F 8 Miles West (GP), 3&up, 8F Best of Ohio (Btp), 5 stakes PA Showcase (Prx), 4 stakes El Joven (Ret), 2yo, 8F-T La Senorita (Ret) 2yof, 8F-T 12 Cup & Saucer (WO), 2yo, 8.5F Bunty Lawless (WO), 3&up, 8F-T Athenia (Bel), f/m, 8.5F-T Anoakia (SA), 2yof, 6F Bull Dog (Fno), 3&up, 9F 13 Pebbles (Bel), 3yof, 8F-T Pumpkin Pie (Bel), f/m, 7F Ballerina (Hst), f/m, 9F Speakeasy (SA), 2yo, 6F Carotene (WO), 3yof, 9F 14 Governor’s Cup (Zia), 2yo, 6F Permian Basin (Zia), 2yof, 6F 16 Sycamore (Kee), 3&up, 12F-T 17 Valley View (Kee), 3yof, 8.5F-T Oklahoma Classics (RP), 8 stakes

18 AQHA Challenge (Prm), 5 stakes Maryland Million (Lrl), 9 stakes British Champions (Ascot), 6 stakes Empire Showcase (Bel), 8 stakes WV Brdrs Classics (CT), 9 stakes Raven Run (Kee), 3yo f, 7F Cellars Shiraz (GP), 3yof, 8F-T Showing Up (GP), 3yo, 8F-T California Flag (SA), 3&up, 6.5F-T Fiesta Mile (Ret), f/m, 8F-T Hall of Fame (Ret), 3&up, 8.5F-T Bienvenidos (TuP), 3&up, 6.5F 19 Canadian Int’l (WO), 3&up, 12F-T EP Taylor (WO), f/m, 10F-T Nearctic (WO), 3&up, 6F-T Ontario Fashion (WO), f/m, 6F Dowager (Kee), f/m, 12F-T Bowl Game (Bel), 3&up, 10F-T Uniformity (SA), 3yo, 6.5F-T 24 Gaylord Memorial (RP), 2yof, 6.5F My Trusty Cat (DeD), 2yof, 7F 25 Fayette (Kee), 3&up, 9F Autumn Miss (SA), 3yo f, 8F-T Bold Ruler (Bel), 3&up, 7F Chelsey Flower (Bel), 2yof, 8F-T Jean Lafitte (DeD), 2yo, 8F Gin Rmmy Chmp (GP), 3&up, 5F-T Princess of Palms (TuP), f/m, 6F Diana (Tdn), f/m, 6F

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (8:30 pm ET) in Night School!

26 Awad (Bel), 2yo, 8F-T

Turnback the Alarm (Bel), f/m, 8.5F

Rags to Riches (CD), 2yof, 8F Street Sense (CD), 2yo, 8F Lure (SA), 3&up, 8F-T Fanfreluche (WO), 2yof, 6F New Mexico Cup (Zia), 8 stakes 31 – BREEDERS’ CUP BC Championships (SA), 4 stakes

Dirt Mile, JF Turf, J Turf, Distaff Damascus (SA), 3&up, 7F Twilight Derby (SA), 3yo, 9F Golden State Juv Fil (SA), 2yof, 7F Marathon (SA), 3&up, 14F Dream Supreme (CD), f/m, 6F Magnolia (DeD), f/m, 8F Nov 1 – BREEDERS’ CUP BC Championships (SA), 9 stakes Classic, Turf, Mile, Sprint, Juvy, Juvy Fillies, FM Turf, FM Sprint, Turf Sprint Golden State Juv (SA), 2yo, 7F Juv Turf Sprint (SA), 2yo, 6.5F-T Sen Maddy (SA), 3&up, 6.5F-T Chilukki (CD), f/m, 8F Bet On Sunshine (CD), 3&up, 6F Mountaineer Mile (Mnr), 3&up, 8F Display (WO), 2yo, 8.5F Maple Leaf (WO), f/m, 10F-T Delta Gold Cup (DeD), 3&up, 8F Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (8:30 pm ET) in Night School!

Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct

1 – AQHA national poll 1 – Online: Woodbine chat 2 – BC Challenge Players Guide 3 – Keeneland opens 3 – Hawthorne opens 3 – Online: Keeneland chat 3 – Online: Remington chat 4 – Online: Keeneland chat 4 – TV: NBCSN, Kee stakes 5 – Online: Keeneland chat 5 – TV: NBC, Spinster/Bourbon 7 – Online: Night School 8 – AQHA national poll 8 – Online: Keeneland chat 8 – Online: Woodbine chat 9 – Online: Keeneland chat 10 – Online: Keeneland chat 10 – Online: Remington chat 11 – Online: Keeneland chat 12 – Online: Keeneland chat 12 – Portland Meadows opens

Oct 14 – Online: Night School Oct 15 – AQHA national poll Oct 15 – Online: Keeneland chat Oct 15 – Online: Woodbine chat Oct 15 – Golden Gate opens Oct 16 – Online: Keeneland chat Oct 17 – Can Int’l Wagering Guide Oct 17 – Online: Keeneland chat Oct 17 – Online: Remington chat Oct 18 – AQHA Challenge at Prm Oct 18 – Online: Keeneland chat Oct 18 – Meadowlands (TB) closes Oct 18 – Turf Paradise opens Oct 19 – Online: Keeneland chat Oct 19 – Belterra closes Oct 21 – Online: Night School Oct 22 – AQHA national poll Oct 22 – Online: Keeneland chat Oct 22 – Online: Woodbine chat Oct 22 – Delaware Park closes Oct 23 – Online: Keeneland chat Oct 24 – Online: Keeneland chat Oct 24 – Online: Remington chat Oct 25 – Keeneland closes Oct 25 – Online: Keeneland chat Oct 26 – Churchill Downs opens Oct 26 – Belmont closes Oct 28 – Online: Night School *** Oct 29 – AQHA national poll Oct 29 – Online: Woodbine chat Oct 29 – Aqueduct opens Oct 31 – TV: NBCSN, BC Friday Nov 1 – TV: NBCSN/NBC, BC Sat

*** = BC Handicapping seminar

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (8:30 pm ET) in Night School!

CANADIAN INTERNATIONAL October 19, 2014

OCTOBER RACE OF THE MONTH Joshua Tree has made the Canadian International his personal playground. KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE CANADIAN INT’L: 4 straight winners have exited European preps, the last 3 of which via France’s Longchamp … Often this race is a softer spot from the world’s biggest stages witnessed by 6 straight winners exiting losses (3rd or worse in each) … The last truly Woodbine-based winner of this race was Thornfield in 1999. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Venerable globetrotter The Joshua Tree notched his record 3rd win in this race and for his 3rd different trainer! Despite his affinity for the course and situation, he was dismissed at 6/1 odds following a poor showing in the Arc.

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS HANDICAPPER’S AIDES: Last 10 Winners – Full History ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04

Joshua Tree Joshua Tree Sarah Lynx Joshua Tree Champs Elysees Marsh Side Cloudy’s Knight Collier Hill Relaxed Gesture Sulamani

E. Dunlop M. Botti J. Hammond A. O’Brien B. Frankel N. Drysdale F. Kirby A. Swinback C. Clement S. bin Suroor

R. Moore L. Dettori C. Soumillon C. O’Donoghue G. Gomez J. Castellano R. Zimmerman D. McKeown C. Nakatani L. Dettori

Last 10 Winners’ Preps ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04

Joshua Tree Joshua Tree Sarah Lynx Joshua Tree Champs Elysees Marsh Side Cloudy’s Knight Collier Hill Relaxed Gesture Sulamani

13th, Longchamp (FRA) 3rd, Longchamp (FRA) 4th, Longchamp (FRA) 5th, Doncaster (ENG) 4th, Woodbine 4th, Woodbine 1st, Woodbine 1st, Taby (SWE) 3rd, Belmont 1st,York (ENG)

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (8:30 pm ET) in Night School!

Be careful what you boycott. The impact on handle at Churchill Downs from a grassroots boycott has been significant in 2014. The numbers don’t lie: a social mediaorganized boycott of the racing at the iconic track has been part of a very difficult year and public relations run. The boycott’s attempt, led by the Horseplayers Association of North America (HANA), is to financially injure Churchill Downs for its takeout increases, and thus force a change in policy to return to its previous rates which were in line with Keeneland and among the best rates the industry offers. Sounds like a plan, and one that conceivably works. Except for the fact that Churchill Downs, Inc. reported record profits during the spring term in which the very boycott was working so well. You see, the difference between Churchill Downs and Churchill Downs, Inc. is so much more than a three-letter abbreviation. The

boycott against betting the Churchill Downs racetrack doesn’t dent the business model of CDI. In fact, it only enhances its corporate position that horse racing is a losing business other than the Kentucky Oaks and Derby days. A failing bottom line throughout the spring and fall meets only bolsters that stance and will give horseplayers and horsemen a whole lot less of the game we love. Continuing to boycott Churchill Downs won’t punish the fat cats at casino-happy CDI, but rather the dedicated employees at the Louisville racetrack who will see their budgets slashed and coworkers disappear. It will make offering an enjoyable day of racing on TV or in-person more difficult. If you don’t want to bet Churchill because of the higher takeout, that’s your prerogative as a shopper. But don’t think you’re getting back at the man. You’re actually playing into his plan. - JP

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