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CONTENTS MAY 2015 5

From The Publisher

The Teaser

Back to Night School

Topics that titillate the racing mind.

Quick-link summaries to all of our fan education lessons in April ‘15.

Countdown to the Crown:

It’s In The Blood:

Jeremy Plonk takes you through each Derby contender with bottomline analysis.

Do we have another Big Brown in his son, Dortmund? Read on.

Jen Perkins compares & contrasts the Triple Crowns in both AQHA and Thoroughbred racing.

*NEW MAY 13 ADDITION* 54 PREAKNESS ADDENDUM!

From the Publisher It’s our double-issue this month of May, beginning with a Kentucky Derby preview on the pages to come. Then check back Preakness week as we insert fresh copy into the digital publication for the middle jewel of the Triple Crown. My Countdown to the Crown weekly scouting report nears the wire of its 10th season and has been at this 2015 crop every Friday since the beginning of January. I hope you’re enjoying the weekly reports free scouting reports at Countdowntothecrown.com and continue to help spread the word. The marriage of Countdown and the HPNOW Mag was a natural in 2014 and, so, we’re going to give it another whirl in providing you expert analysis with an enhanced, digital layout. Because of travel schedules to and from Louisville for Derby 141, this issue was published just hours prior to the post position draw. For updates see Horseplayernow.com and Countdowntothecrown.com!

- JP

Editor, Publisher, Designer Jeremy Plonk Contributing Writers The Teaser Jen Perkins Photography Chief Enzina Mastrippolito (Photosbyz) Contributing Photographers Bob Coglianese/Gulfstream Park Lou Hodges/Fair Grounds Reed Palmer/Churchill Downs Coady Photography/Oaklawn Park Joe Labozzetta/NYRA Adam Coglianese/NYRA Zoe Metz Photography/Santa Anita Benoit Photography/Santa Anita Jim McCue/Md Jockey Club Andrea Caudill/AQHA Ruidoso Downs Pat Cummings

THE TEASER:

From a wild, full-moon finish to a seemingly Teaser, definition: A male horse used at breeding farms to determine whether innocent trainer, a mare is ready to receive a stallion. Also, perhaps the eventually it will most unfulfilling occupation in the universe. all make sense. Elbows and Assh#%* The stream of puns is endless and includes words like ‘crack, behind, rear, moon, etc.’ However, Teaser don’t play that game. He’s satisfied with merely reporting the straight facts surrounding the incident. NOT! You think for one minute Teaser’s gonna let a jock losing his drawers during the stretch run of a race pass without comment? No freakin’ way. In case you missed it, Blake Shinn was riding in a race at Canterbury Racecourse in Australia where, soon after the start, the elastic band holding his white jockey pants in place suddenly snapped.

All would have gone unnoticed had Shinn’s mount Miss Royale not made a race out of it. Shinn dutifully encouraged her late kick and went to work scrubbing on her even as gravity simultaneously lowered his untethered drawers. As luck would have it, Shinn wasn’t wearing any panties and in a drive to the wire, all that was visible to trailing jockeys were elbows and assh#%*… literally. Watch the video and then tell Teaser the last time you saw anything like it? At the track, I mean, not on that website you visit during your lunch break.

Seriously, Teaser’s been watchin’ races since Shoemaker had the bug and he’s seen plenty of gamblers lose their shirts, but this is the first time he’s ever watched a jock drop trou in mid-stretch. And please, no cheap shots suggesting this incident serves as one more example of a jock riding like a smacked ass! Mott Seeks Federal Relief Here’s one trainer cited with a speeding ticket that just may have a valid beef with the cops. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott (pictured) has filed a lawsuit in federal court designed to overturn a 15-day suspension he received in New York after one of his horses, Saratoga Snacks, tested positive for overages of the therapeutic medications furosemide (Lasix/Salix) and flunixin (banamine). Mott’s complaint is that when he requested a split blood sample to challenge the positive, all he got was piss. Literally. Instead of a split of Saratoga Snacks’ blood

test, Mott got some of the horse’s urine. Which, when a ‘positive’ result is based on a blood test, is as useless as a stall with no webbing. Mott’s mouthpiece is former jockey agent Drew (now Andrew) Mollica, who got some great news recently that his former rider, the late Chris Antley, has been voted into the Hall of Fame. Anyone who knows Mollica can attest that once a federal judge gets an earful of his ‘argument,’ it’s likely Mott’s positive will be overturned quicker than a burning omelet. After an hour or so of hearing Mollica argue, the judge just might award Mott the entire state of New York just to end the harangue! While Mott has won over 4,500 career races, he apparently isn’t very adept at mixing an effective equine cocktail. In the race in question, an allowance race at Belmont Park on Sept. 20, 2014, Saratoga Snacks finished last. -

HPN

This issue we review classes from:

APRIL 2015 Since 2011, Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races. Through live chats, videos and radio simulcasts, the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers. In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine, we go â&#x20AC;&#x153;Back to Night Schoolâ&#x20AC;? with a look at some of the high points of past lessons.

The 2015 Night School season picked up steam with a keystone to the handicapping process, pace, as well as money management talk sure to boost your confidence, and maybe even your wallet. Week 5: Mapping Out The Pace Week 6: Psychology of the Horseplayer Week 7: Small Bankroll Betting Week 8: Large Bankroll Betting

Week 5 Guest

Week 7 Guest

Week 5 Guest

Week 7 Guest

Week 6 Guest

Week 8 Guest

Week 6 Guest

Week 7 Guest

Week 8 Guest

COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL! TUESDAYS, 8:30 PM ET MAY 5 WHEN TO BET MORE…AND LESS

MAY 12 PREAKNESS WEEK HANDICAPPING

Find out from the pros when to hold ‘em and when to fold ‘em. Money management in the spotlight.

Ask the experts directly your questions about Black-Eyed Susan & Preakness Day races in our exclusive Q&A. MAY 19 IDENTIFYING TRACK BIAS Not all racetracks are created equal. Learn tips on how to identify when biases creep in.

MAY 26 RACING FROM THE OUTSIDE Renowned national media members talk about horse racing in the scope of other major sports.

LOOK AHEAD: JUN 2 BELMONT WEEK HANDICAPPING Our final Q&A chat of the spring semester helps ready you for the big weekend to come at Belmont Park.

CLICK FOR MORE

Visit Horseplayernow.com for the racing industry’s FREE national online fan education program.

KENTUCKY DERBY ANALYSIS By Jeremy Plonk

e began Season 10 of

Countdown to the Crown

on January 2 this year, and, in many crazy ways, not much has changed. The cream of the 2015 crop didn’t waver much from the stars of 2014. Sure, it was disappointing to see Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Texas Red sidelined, but Grade 1winning juveniles Dortmund, Carpe Diem and American Pharoah not only danced all the way to Louisville, but they did so in unbeaten aplomb. Now we arrive at the main event with the deepest 3-year-old crop at least since 2007 featured Street Sense, Curlin, Hard Spun, Any Given Saturday and the filly Rags to Riches. Maybe it reaches even back to 1997 when Silver Charm,

Captain Bodgit, Free House and Touch Gold lit the marquee. The bid on the pages to come will be to tab our third straight Derby winner in this space. True, Orb and California Chrome were winning favorites and it’s never keen to brag in horseplay when tabbing the chalk. But $12 and $7 winners in a race this difficult to analyze feel like $24 and $14 winners to the psyche. Add in some exotics love and they feel almost magical. There’s something about being right on Kentucky Derby Day that just makes it all good in this process we tackle daily, weekly and, for some, seasonally. Get ready as I count down each contender for Kentucky Derby 141 from least-fancied to the big horse on campus at Churchill Downs.

ITSAKNOCKOUT

• Scored back-to-back MSW and ALW wins at Gulfstream going around 1 turn, but faced no significant developing 3YOs. Prep Notes • 2nd-best in G2 Fountain of Youth class rise, but awarded DQ win vs. Upstart in controversial decision. 6-lb weight break. Prep Notes • After slow series of come-home times, was left flailing in 4th, beaten 21 lengths in G1 Florida Derby by Materiality, Upstart. Prep Notes

Style

• He wants to sit just to the fore of mid-pack and then grind past lesser horses. Needs the brilliant to come back to him.

• Late developer didn't debut until 12/7 & has raced only at GP. Schedule No modern Derby winner has come from only 1 track prior. • Owners made a marketing coup with same-day Mayweather / Pacquaio pay-per-view promoters; reason why they're here? X-Factor BOTTOM LINE: He’s training well enough, but he’s never had any sort of late steam to contend here. NOT ON MY TICKETS. Fair odds 50/1.

OCHO OCHO OCHO • 3-for-3 juvenile campaign included his defining victory in the G3 Delta Downs Jackpot, overcoming wicked post on bullring. Prep Notes • Tough comeback spot off 3-month layoff in San Felipe, 2015's top-ranked Countdown race. Traffic disaster early, poor 8th. Prep Notes • Set tone in Blue Grass that lacked a real pace burner and put up steady splits while giving way late for 3rd. Improved try. Prep Notes

Style

• Wants to be near the front whether it's :43 or :48 as his PPs indicate. Showed patience at Delta and has handled all posts.

• Suffered scrapes and cuts in San Felipe gate and first-turn Schedule fracus, but didn't miss any time. Hasn't gone to plan at age 3. • Won stakes race on Breeders' Cup Saturday card in Juvenile Turf Sprint, showing he can handle a big-event crowd. X-Factor BOTTOM LINE: No lead, no pass is the worst situation in all of racing. NOT ON MY TICKETS. Fair odds 50/1.

TENCENDUR

• 4th in Withers at 32/1 with good pace set-up, though comebacker Far From Over looked to take charge of Aqu scene. Prep Notes • Added blinkers, got sizzling pace & did little with it when 5th in Gotham edition watered down by Far From Over missing. Prep Notes • Ran much better with a SLOW pace when tracking up close in G1 Wood; led in deep stretch before settling for runner-up. Prep Notes

Style

Schedule

• Not a true closer, owning to miler's pedigree, so he's in noman's land with a fast pace and can't punch late if it's slow.

• Late to party with Dec. 12 debut, but he's been on cue since. No horse in modern era won Derby racing only at 1 track prior.

• Sire Warrior's Reward ran a dynamite 2nd on Derby Day '10 in the Churchill Downs Handicap. Pedigree/mind for the day? X-Factor BOTTOM LINE: This will not be a slow pace, and therefore his chances become severely challenged. NOT ON MY TICKETS. Fair odds 50/1.

WAR STORY

• 1 of 7 different horses to make lead in bizarre Lecomte edition Jan. 17; wound up 2nd after being leaned on through stretch. Prep Notes • Redirected to Risen Star after Southwest iced out at OP, ran another good 2nd (especially with 10 days since final work). Prep Notes • Didn't advance cause with a 3rd in G2 Louisiana Derby when beaten an increasing 4-1/2 lengths by International Star. Prep Notes

Style

• He can't get out of the gate, which forces him to be a closer, but he's not a sustained runner and therefore prone to hang.

• November private purchase hasn't missed a beat since coming Schedule to Amoss barn. 4 solid runs in New Orleans for this. • Extremely slow breaker and horse who moves a lot in the gate; he can't be down inside or a traffic disaster looms. X-Factor BOTTOM LINE: Inability to sustain a run likely keeps him out of the superfecta at 1-1/4 miles. NOT ON MY TICKETS. Fair odds 40/1.

MR. Z

• 4 straight solid stakes placings in Delta Downs Jackpot, Los Al Futurity, Smarty Jones & Southwest made for busy winter. Prep Notes • Removed blinkers in disastrous retreat in Louisiana Derby, trying to split forces from Rebel-bound American Pharoah. Prep Notes • Even 3rd behind Amerian Pharoah in Arkansas Derby when adding blinkers back and taking very consersvative approach. Prep Notes

Style

• More speed than he showed in Ark Derby when purposely kept off of fellow Zayat-owned American Pharoah. First flight.

• With 12 career starts, he hasn't missed a beat since debuting Schedule last June at Churchill. Will be in need of a vacation very soon. • With his tendency to bear out, you hope to draw inside of him if you're a fellow horse with some early pace. X-Factor BOTTOM LINE: He’s not impossible, but the wrong running style for this year trying to keep up early & late. NOT ON MY TICKETS. Fair odds 40/1.

EL KABEIR

• Kentucky Jockey Club winner at CD danced all 4 winter acts at Aqu, splitting decisions at short prices in Jerome/Withers. Prep Notes • Changed tactics & rallied for G3 Gotham score, but clocked as slowest Gotham ever at 8.5F. Showed athleticism/niftyness. Prep Notes • Again tried to rally in G1 Wood, but pace didn't collapse this time behind slow splits and well-beaten 3rd behind Frosted. Prep Notes

Style

• Once a speedster, then a closer. Chucky Lopez got fired for the style that worked in the Gotham. Not sure anyone knows.

• Ironman makes 9th straight stakes start & has been in heavy Schedule activity since Saratoga meet last summer. Shine worn off? • Calvin Borel takes the mount and he's won this race 3 times on all types - Street Sense, Super Saver and Mine That Bird. X-Factor BOTTOM LINE: He’s 9-for-9 in the superfecta and Borel always worth Derby second-thought. But, NOT ON MY TICKETS. Fair odds 40/1.

FRAMMENTO

• Outrun, 6th by 18+ lengths at 28-1, in G3 Holy Bull to open 3YO season with no excuses after going 1-for-4 as juvenile. Prep Notes • Added blinkers and picked up John Velazquez when exploding trifecta in G2 Fountain of Youth at 63-1, 3rd beaten 4-1/2 L. Prep Notes • Steady-tempo'd Blue Grass didn't set up for deep closer, but he also didn't fire huge shot when 4th by 7-1/4 lengths. Prep Notes

Style

Schedule

• A pure closer who will fall double-digit lengths out of the Derby early on. Needs a total meltdown to make any impact.

• He's been in steady training since last summer's Saratoga meet, but the races have been well-spaced. Handles travel.

• Trainer Nick Zito is a 2-time Derby winner and has won 5 Triple Crown races. But he's 22: 0-1-0 in KD since Go For Gin. X-Factor BOTTOM LINE: You won’t find a bigger Zito homer than me, and I’m a sucker for closers. Just not this one. NOT ON MY TICKETS. Fair odds 50/1.

STANFORD

• Returned from 6-month layoff to win modest Gulfstream 6furlong allowance in February despite troubled start. Prep Notes • Chased stablemate/next-out Fla Derby winner Materiality in overnight stakes at GP when clearly 2nd-best despite DQ. Prep Notes • Fit key La Derby profile & had a pace edge that day, but didn't quite cash it in when chased down late by International Star. Prep Notes

Style

• He's gone to the lead in both route bids, but isn't professional gate horse. Yet to be tested for patience in a 2-turn bid.

• For missing 6 months, his 3 preps this year have included 2 at Schedule 1-1/8 miles, so he's gotten as much as he could out of them. • Copped 4 trouble comments in 5 starts, 3 at the start, so you need him to leave smoothly & don't want to draw near him. X-Factor BOTTOM LINE: Gate/class questions in a year with quality speed, but I have liked the way he’s trained. Still, NOT ON MY TICKETS. Fair odds 40/1.

UPSTART

• BC Juvenile 3rd looked like the goods with eye-catching Holy Bull win to open 3yo season. Sharply dominated Frosted et al. Prep Notes • Bounced in Fountain of Youth and still won handily, though a 50/50 DQ took his # down. Regressed effort predicted & ok. Prep Notes • Expected to bounce back more in Florida Derby, but was just even pursuing Materiailty despite a big foundation edge. Prep Notes

Style

• Wants to sit that dream trip 1-3 lengths off pace & pounce. That could be busy real estate on Saturday w/ young jockey.

• Good plan, but worry about exeution in that he was TOO Schedule fresh/sharp in Jan. Illness after Fla Derby adds some worry. • Trained in relative secrecy at Palm Meadows in Florida & shows up mid-week in Louisville. Watch his local gallops. X-Factor BOTTOM LINE: The most difficult decision (along with Mubtaahij), but in this case I’m taking a BIG chance: NOT ON MY TICKETS. Fair odds 15/1.

MUBTAAHIJ

• 5 races at Dubai carnival this season after bombing on turf twice at Newmarket. Meydan returned to dirt footing this year. Prep Notes • Drilled previously unbeaten southern hemisphere 4YO Sir Fever in 1-3/16 miles Al Bastakiya, acing his 1st distance test. Prep Notes • Perfect trip set-up when sitting just off duelers in G3 UAE Derby score over 1-3/16 miles. Visually striking performance. Prep Notes

Style

• Bad breaker upon debut, trainer de Kock seems to have that righted. Wants press-pounce; pedigree takes him a long way.

• Traveling lad denied US access and regular feed not allowed Schedule in US as well. Lots of hurdles from Dubai beyond mileage. • Will not run on Lasix in Derby 141. Every starter since 2005 (Don't Get Mad, 4th) has had Lasix, every winner '97-present. X-Factor BOTTOM LINE: Educated guesses and value are everyday horseplayer realities. Admit that you’re guessing here if you play him, be okay with it, and demand fair odds of 15/1 in straight plays. EXOTICS threat.

MUBTAAHIJ TRAVELED FROM DUBAI TO LOUISVILLE WITH A QUARANTINE STOP AT ARLINGTON. IT’S NOT YOUR FATHER’S DERBY TRAIL, SO MAKE SURE YOU GET PAID TO SEE IT THROUGH.

MATERIALITY

• Debuted Jan. 11 an easy winner in slop at Gulfstream at 6 furlongs, beating eventual G3 Bay Shore 4th Easy to Say. Prep Notes • Stretched out 3 furlongs to romp in 1-1/8 miles overnight stakes at GP, besting eventual G2 La Derby 2nd Stanford. Prep Notes • Wired G1 Florida Derby over slow track as he and Upstart spread-eagled an otherwise overmatched field. Prep Notes

Style

• He's never passed more than 1 horse in a race, and he's also replicated that similar style both sprinting and routing.

• Playing catchup with the calendar. Came out of Timonium sale Schedule with "baby stuff" issues, Pletcher said, and never raced at 2. • No horse in modern history has won Derby having only raced at 1 track prior. Sister My Miss Sophia was 2nd in 2014 Oaks. X-Factor BOTTOM LINE: Highly talented, but being asked to do too much, too soon Haven't liked how hot he's gotten in mornings at Churchill Downs. Fringe EXOTICS contender with fair win odds approximately 12/1.

MATERIALITY BECAME THE REAL ‘UPSTART’ IN THE FLORIDA DERBY

 Worth Noting The Curse of Apollo is alive and well, dating back to 1882 as the last time a horse who did not race as a 2-year-old went on to Kentucky Derby glory. Those bidding for such a feat are 58: 0-3-4 all-time. Bodemeister and Curlin are the only ones to hit the Kentucky Derby trifecta in the past 20 years.

INTERNATIONAL STAR • 7 different horses led at some point in strangely run Lecomte, where he got last laugh at 9/1 (biggest upset on trail in '14). Prep Notes • Showed handy athleticism in Risen Star win vs. similar cast as Lecomte with exception of late-running Keen Ice via Florida. Prep Notes • 4th horse ever to sweep Louisiana Derby series, first since '09 Derby fav Friesan Fire. Ran 2L faster than same-day NO Hcp. Prep Notes

Style

• A closer with a smallish frame in the cut-out of a Mine That Bird (also with a WO Polytrack resume at 2). Needs fast pace.

• Essentially in race mode since early summer '14 & this is 9th Schedule consecutive stakes. Foundation, check. Break time, maybe? • Eerily similar resume to Orb & California Chrome, 3-for-3 at age 3 like that pair also after having several losses at age 2. X-Factor BOTTOM LINE: Rates perhaps best chance of the closers in a year loaded with superior speed. EXOTICS threat with fair win odds about 15/1.

MIGUEL MENA GIVES PRAISE AFTER LOUISIANA DERBY SCORE.

KEEN ICE

• No chance in Holy Bull behind soft pace & faster horses over short stretch at GP. Late interest & gallop out caught eye. Prep Notes • Loved the way he finished up when 3rd in Risen Star and pointed toward a real late player in this crop. Light-bulb lit? Prep Notes • Regressed some when a wide/disapppointing 4th in La Derby behind modest pace. Expected to see more late & didn't. Prep Notes

Style

• Figures to drop far back early and let the classy speed soften itself ... in hopes of launching a stretch bid. Best & only shot.

• Classic Derby resume with 4 races at 2, including ascension to Schedule stakes, and 3 solid preps right on trainer's schedule at age 3. • Hall of Fame jockey Kent Desormeaux has won 3 Derbys (Real Quiet, Fusaichi Pegaus, Big Brown) and fits his finishing style. X-Factor BOTTOM LINE: While there may be 10-12 better overall horses in this field, his style/pedigree put him in EXOTICS contention. Fair odds 30/1.

 Worth Noting On pedigree, Keen Ice is a son of 2007 Kentucky Derby 3rd-place finisher Curlin, who went on to Preakness, Breeders’ Cup Classic and Dubai World Cup glory. His damsire, Awesome Again, won what many regard the deepest race ever run in the US, the 1998 Breeders’ Cup Classic at Churchill Downs. If there’s a 1-1/4 miles pedigree – with a lean to the classics and Churchill Downs – it’s Keen Ice.

FAR RIGHT

• Rallied up fence to win Smarty Jones at Oaklawn despite no room to go on turn; Mr. Z bore out and he took advantage. Prep Notes • Copy-and-paste trip and inside rally to add G3 Southwest at Oaklawn, this time beating Mr. Z et al on the square. Prep Notes • Distant 2nd, beaten 8 lengths, in G1 Arkansas Derby behind heavy favorite American Pharoah. Solid final 3F in :37-3/5. Prep Notes

Style

• A defined closer, he'll be among back third of field going onto the backstretch of Derby 141. Style netted 9-9 in super so far.

• Everything has gone exactly to plan, including a scheduled Schedule bypass of the Rebel in order to have a fresher Derby horse. • Mike Smith opted to ride him over Bolo, and if this is a meltdown Derby, recall it was Smith who orchestrated Giacomo. X-Factor BOTTOM LINE: Needs American Pharoah to come back to him as he can’t close that gap on his own. But he’s a valid EXOTICS threat. Fair odds 20/1.

Far Right found the rail and the finish in the Smarty Jones & Southwest.

DANZIG MOON

• After 0-2 campaign, returned Feb. 7 with easy GP allowance win over soft field. Modest come-home in 1-turn mile. Prep Notes • Never fired when distant 4th in G2 Tampa Derby, but 12L defeat looked better when 1st/3rd returned to win stakes. Prep Notes • Showed progress in G1 Blue Grass 2nd and closed on even terms with Carpe Diem while clearly 2nd-best. Positive step. Prep Notes

Style

• He's been anywhere from 1-11 lengths off the lead early and that versatility will help in a Derby field overflowing with pace.

• Races are well-spaced, he got a decent Fall foundation at 2 Schedule and he's been training very well since the Blue Grass. All +. • Owner Oxley's already won Derby (Monarchos) & hesitant to go here if it would compromise Queen's Plate. Horse said yes. X-Factor BOTTOM LINE: Nothing on his form says he beats all the big players at this point, but he’s a VERY live wire progressing for EXOTICS. Fair win odds approximately 20/1, but must-use underneath.

 Worth Noting As an Ontario-sired runner, Danzig Moon is one of the favorites for the $1 million Queen’s Plate on July 5 in his homeland. The last Canadian-bred to win the Derby was Sunny’s Halo in 1983. Last year, We Miss Artie was 10th in the Derby and went on to win the Plate Trial and finish fourth in the Queen’s Plate.

FROSTED

• Waited in good position behind 3-way duel in Holy Bull, but failed to deliver strong late kick when 2nd-best to Upstart. Prep Notes • Looked long gone on lead at top of Fountain of Youth lane, but threw head up & stopped to 4th. Likely displaced palate. Prep Notes • After minor throat surgery, returned in G1 Wood to blow by them late in 4th-slowest Wood since '90. Sharp :36.90 last 3F. Prep Notes

Style

• Early pace figures were off the charts in Fla over a deceivingly slow track. Then showed new closing element in NY. Versatile.

• Nice 4-start 2YO campaign that progressed, followed by rockSchedule solid 3-prep series at 3. Throat surgery post-FoY huge factor. • Super agent Ron Anderson maneuvered Rosario onto Orb late in '13 & specifically targeted Frosted after the throat surgery. X-Factor BOTTOM LINE: Right on the fringe of a win contender most years, but will slot him EXOTICS player vs. the best of the west in 2015. Fair odds 10/1.

Frosted (4) found his breath & the winner’s circle in a Wood Memorial rally.

 Worth Noting Everyone remembers Giacomo’s shocker at 50/1 in 2005, but lest we forget the even bigger-priced runnerup, Closing Argument, orchestrated by trainer Kiaran McLaughlin at 71/1. He’s won a Belmont Stakes and trained a Breeders’ Cup Classic winner. There’s no reason why a Kentucky Derby can’t be in his future.

FIRING LINE

• Went toe-to-toe with Dortmund in Los Alamitos Futurity in first 2-turn race for both, besting Mr. Z who had routed. Prep Notes • Taxing 2nd to Dortmund in Lewis Memorial in which Stevens tried to break race open in upper stretch but rival re-rallied. Prep Notes • 14-1/4 length Sunland Derby win in record time over soupedup surface. 3rd-largest final Derby prep margin in 100 years. Prep Notes

Style

• On pace numbers as fast or faster than any of these and his rider has won the Derby on the front with Winning Colors.

• After 2 melees with Dortmund, wisely took the easier path via Schedule Sunland and avoided a bounce situation. Foundation in place. • 1,350-foot stretch tussle with Dortmund in late December indicates he may handle 1,234-1/2 feet of lane in Louisville. X-Factor BOTTOM LINE: Stevens may put him on lead. Outside chance to wire and be a win contender, but fits best in EXOTICS. Fair odds approximately 8/1.

CLICK VIDEO ABOVE TO RELIVE THE LOS AL FUTURITY

 Worth Noting Consider that Ruler On Ice, Mine That Bird, Astrology & Commissioner all lost the Sunland Derby and went on to Triple Crown placings just since 2009, including Kentucky Derby & Belmont wins. So while the race may not have the fanfare of some, it’s productivity has been solid enough.

BOLO

• Drew off by 4-1/2 to win the Eddie Logan on turf and wrap up a juvenile sesaon in which all 3 starts were on the grass. Prep Notes • Strong dirt debut 3rd in San Felipe, #1 ranked Countdown race of '15, despite coming off 10-week layoff & missed time. Prep Notes • Bounced off too-good San Felipe return when a flat-late 3rd in G1 Santa Anita Derby, beaten 6-1/2 lengths by Dortmund. Prep Notes

Style

• He's much faster early than you think and quite possibly could be among the first 5 down the backstretch in Derby 141.

• Hind end soreness and inclement weather disrupted his winter Schedule in January-February. Trainer Carla Gaines played catch-up. • Mike Smith jumped off him to ride Far Right, and it was Smith who said after the SA Derby that Bolo doesn't handle dirt well. X-Factor BOTTOM LINE: Visually stunning on his first day on the track at CD on Monday, he may be a bounce-back EXOTICS threat. Fair odds 20/1.

BOLO has moved back into the discussion with his work since SA Derby.

Click above to see BOLO challenge DORTMUND in a San Felipe showdown.

AMERICAN PHAROAH

• Diverted from stablemate Dortmund to OP. Note: barn's key TC successes via Cali (Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Point Given). Prep Notes • Handled sloppy track in easy Rebel return win; showed ability to travel. Tremendous early pace edge despite lost shoe. Prep Notes • No new challenges surfaced for Arkansas Derby, where he put up a time/effort befitting of Curlin, Bodemeister, Afleet Alex. Prep Notes

Style

• In his career, he's passed only 1 horse, a hopeless Ark Derby longshot. Pace figs say he may need to pass 5-6 in Louisville.

• Out nearly 6 months with reported footbruise pre-BC, he has Schedule not been tested 2 starts at 3. Derby 3rd "road game" of '15. • No CA-based horse who hit the road for his final Derby prep has worn roses since Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000 via the Wood. X-Factor BOTTOM LINE: Feels more like a Preakness winner than Derby, but utmost respect and EXOTICS inclusion must. Fair odds approximately 5/1.

CARPE DIEM

• Quality return win in Tampa Bay Derby underscored by Danzig Moon's next-out Blue Grass 2nd, Divining Rod's Lexington win. Prep Notes • Tampa Bay Derby slowed late on clock. Street Sense/Any Given Saturday in 2007 went 4th quarter 6-7 lengths faster. Prep Notes • Came home much stronger in Blue Grass win, nearly 5L faster final 3 furlongs than G1 winner Majestic Harbor on same card. Prep Notes

Style

• Maybe best with 1st-over run, but has won on lead and recall his deep close for 2nd in BC Juvenile behind sizzling pace.

• Exact plan mapped out by Elliott Walden of WinStar and Todd Schedule Pletcher came to fruition without a hiccup - Street Sense path. • Showed reluctance to load in the Tampa Bay Derby in first start off layoff, but behaved at Keeneland. Monitor pre-race. X-Factor BOTTOM LINE: Legitimate WIN contender and reliable top 5 performer. It's just a matter if he has enough late. Fair odds approximately 5/1.

CARPE DIEM has done his best work at Keeneland, including his workouts leading up to Kentucky Derby 141.

ď&#x192;ź Worth Noting You'll hear much about no Blue Grass winner since '91 adding a Derby, but race was 4 weeks out from Derby Day this year for the 1st time.

DORTMUND

• Throwdown in Lewis with Firing Line was a taxing race in which he galloped out best and showed guts. Bounce next? Prep Notes • Kicking down barn, Baffert couldn't await SA Derby like he had planned; sharp San Felipe win rated top 3YO race of '15. Prep Notes • Bounce came in SA Derby with regressed effort & slow comehome time - and yet he still won in hand. That's impressive. Prep Notes

Style

• Big son of Big Brown employs a cruising speed that often crushes his competition and then completes the transaction.

• 4/18 work after SA Derby was everything you'd want to see Schedule exiting a race in which he wasn't quite his best. No tailspin. • Don't overvalue prior Churchill win; loose/cuppy track that time of year NOTHING like tight, watered, rolled one at Derby. X-Factor BOTTOM LINE: Top WIN contender and potential key. Fair odds will be in the 7/2 neighborhood.

DORTMUNDâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s San Felipe win (above) ranks #1 in Countdown this year.

most difficult series of races: the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness Stakes and the Belmont Stakes.

It’s in the Blood: Thoroughbreds & Quarter Horses prepare to capture the elusive Triple Crown By Jen Perkins Triple Crown season is upon us once again – a time when the entire country turns an eye to the sport of horse racing and even casual fans know the three-yearold crop by name. Together, we all cheer for a sweep of one of the

Sir Barton happened to win all three races in 1919, but at the time, it was not a much-heralded event. In fact, the series of races that comprise the Triple Crown did not exist in their current form until 1931. Before this date, there were some years in which the Preakness was held before the Derby, other years in which the Belmont was held before the Preakness, and let’s hope you weren’t trying to win all three races in 1917 or 1922, because in each of those years, the Derby and the Preakness were run on the same day. To further complicate matters, the Belmont was run clockwise prior to 1921, and the varying distance was as long as a mile and five furlongs. It is exceedingly challenging for a horse to win the Triple Crown today, though at least now the series is predictable.

It is even more difficult to complete the same task as a Quarter Horse.

Quarter Horse Triple Crown begins on the day after the Belmont Stakes.

The Triple Crown of Quarter Horse racing comprises the Ruidoso Futurity, the Rainbow Futurity, and the premier event in Quarter Horse racing, the All American Futurity. Quarter Horse fans often compare the All American to the Kentucky Derby in terms of the importance of the event, but as it is also the third leg of the Triple Crown, it carries as nearly as much importance as the Derby and the Belmont combined. The entire series takes place at Ruidoso Downs in New Mexico.

The pain of California Chrome’s Belmont loss in 2014 was certainly assuaged by the victory of the brilliant Kiss My Hocks in the Ruidoso Futurity the following day as he kicked off another Triple Crown bid.

2015 Quarter Horse Triple Crown Schedule  Sunday, June 7th: $750,000 Ruidoso Futurity (G1)  Sunday, July 19th: $1 million Rainbow Futurity (G1)  Monday, Sept. 7th: $3 million All American Futurity (G1) For many fans eager to see a Triple Crown winner, Belmont Stakes day has become a day of disappointment in recent years. Hope springs eternal for followers of all breeds of horse racing, however, because each year the

Near Misses In the history of the pursuit of the Triple Crown, there have been 23 instances in which a horse won the first two legs but either lost or did not run in the Belmont Stakes. Interestingly, it is even more common for a horse to win the Belmont and either the Derby or the Preakness (29 times) and includes such horses as Man o’ War in 1920 and Native Dancer in 1953. There are fewer near misses in the Quarter Horse Triple Crown due to the sheer difficulty in making it to each race. A series of time trials, sometimes as many as 20 or more, precedes each leg to determine the field. In reality, a potential Quarter Horse Triple Crown winner has to run six times, three times in trials and three times in the main events.

Last year, Jm Miracle (pictured) won only one leg of the Triple Crown, the All American, but he did qualify to all three legs, as did Bodacious Eagle, which is an impressive accomplishment. Thoroughbred Triple Crown Winners 1919: Sir Barton 1930: Gallant Fox 1935: Omaha 1937: War Admiral 1941: Whirlaway 1943: Count Fleet 1946: Assault 1948: Citation 1973: Secretariat 1977: Seattle Slew 1978: Affirmed Quarter Horse Triple Crown Winners 1981: Special Effort It may feel like an eternity since the last Triple Crown was won by Affirmed in 1978. Quarter Horse fans sympathize but are more

realistic: the first and last time a Quarter Horse completed the Triple Crown was Special Effort in 1981. Triple Crown Bloodlines Affirmed and Special Effort have more in common than simply being the most recent Triple Crown winner of their breed. They also share the same bloodlines. Affirmed’s sire, Exclusive Native, and Special Effort’s sire, Raise Your Glass, were both sired by the champion Raise a Native, one of the sport’s most influential sires. Raise a Native was by Native Dancer, whose only loss in 22 starts was by a nose in the Kentucky Derby. Triple Crown accomplishments by Affirmed and Special Effort have helped to make up for the disappointing loss by

Native Dancer who would have been a deserving Triple Crown winner. Perhaps progeny of the close calls of this generation will make amends for the Triple Crowns that might have been, and if so, we could witness history this year. In 2005, Afleet Alex (pictured) battled traffic in the stretch to place third in the Kentucky Derby, but won the Preakness and the Belmont. In 2008, Big Brown did not finish in the Belmont after winning the Derby and Preakness. In the 2015 Kentucky Derby, Afleet Alex will be represented by Materiality, and Big Brown by Dortmund, as each tries to avenge their siresâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; Triple Crown losses. As for the Quarter Horse Triple Crown hopefuls, the season has only just begun. Trials for the first leg will take place near Memorial Day, allowing handicappers and fans enough time to enjoy the

Thoroughbred Triple Crown attempt and prepare to ease the pain in case history repeats itself on Belmont Stakes Day. As always, catch the Ruidoso trials and futurities, along with Quarter Horse racing across the county, on live streaming Q-Racing Video. (www.qracingvideo.com)

Jen Perkins has been a member of the Wrangler Racing Aces fan education program from the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) since 2010. She completed the Race Track Industry Program at the University of Arizona and has been involved in Thoroughbred and Quarter Horse racing as an owner, breeder, and handicapper for over 20 years.

By Jeremy Plonk

tumultuous past month in Baltimore has left Charm City a place of civil unrest and even events as big as the Preakness seem minor in compare. But for just Click to watch Derby 141 replay! under 2 minutes on Saturday, the nation will look to Maryland for a respite to the news cycle and a And, oh the ironic spice in the crab headline for its sports pages and cakes if Bob Baffert thwarts his sportscasts. Will it be American own Triple Crown bid with Derby Pharoah delivering a follow-up act third Dortmund! Our season-long to his Kentucky Derby glory? Or analysis of the 3-year-old crop might runner-up Firing Line and continues with our look from the the ageless Gary Stevens prove bottom to the top of the charts for turn-about is fair play? Preakness 140.

BODHISATTVA

• Tesio winner owns a local victory, but it's been since 1972 since a Pimlico prepper won Preakness & '83 for any local. The Latest • Most heavily raced horse in Preakness 140 making 12th lifetime start. He's raced every month dating back to August. Form Cycle • Best recent races came behind dawdling paces when able to set the table or contend for lead. That's implausible Saturday. Pace Style

Vulnerability

Best Case Scenario

X-Factor

• He couldn't match strides with Bridget's Big Luvy before that one tried American Pharoah and was trashed in Ark Derby.

• He takes back and makes one run and tries to pass a few tired horses. Pressing these steeds early is bad business.

• Sire Student Council won Pimlico Special locally and his jockey Trevor McCarthy is Maryland's top young pilot. Even still ...

BOTTOM LINE: David, meet 3 Goliaths. NOT ON MY TICKETS. Fair win odds 50/1.

Click above to see BODHISATTVA’s final Preakness workout and comments from trainer Jose Corrales.  

Worth Noting While no locally based horse has won the middle jewel of the Triple Crown since Deputed Testamony in 1983, several have had some exotics impact. Runner-ups since the new millennium include Maryland’s Magic Weisner in 2002 at 45/1, Scra ppy T in ‘05 at 13/1 & Sweetnorthernsaint in ‘06 at 8/1.

TALE OF VERVE

• Excluded from Kentucky Derby due to lack of points, Dallas Stewart looks to follow up on '13-'14 longshot Derby 2nds. The Latest • Has 2 weeks' additional rest on the Derby set, but took 6 races to break his maiden and struck out this winter at FG. Form Cycle • He'll be last early and hope to pick off tiring horses as they fade through pack. Expect him 12-15 lengths off fast pace. Pace Style

Vulnerability

Best Case Scenario

X-Factor

• Resume lacks another single G3-type 3YO to date, much less one of the strongest 1-2-3 Derby trifectas returning in years.

• If Golden Soul and Commanding Curve can finish 2nd in the Derby with this style for Stewart, all he needs is a meltdown.

• Joel Rosario has had at least one Triple Crown top 3 finish in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and was 4th in the Derby on Frosted.

BOTTOM LINE: As much as I like closers behind fast paces, I can’t make the leap to put this one into top 3. NOT ON MY TICKETS. Fair odds 40/1.

DIVINING ROD

• Barbaro's owners return to Preakness for first time since '06 with a visually impressive winner of the Lexington Stakes. The Latest • 5 career races all within current program dating back to Nov. He's been well-spaced and managed; fresher than Derby set. Form Cycle • He's never been more than a few jumps off the lead and he showed determination on the front at Tampa. More pace heat. Pace Style

Vulnerability

Best Case Scenario

X-Factor

• He's battled foot problems this year (quarter cracks / bar shoes) and his mama was a turf star. Body may ask for grass.

• In a dream sequence, they don't respect him, let him set an easy pace and the Derby horses all bounce. Likely? Hardly.

• Former Clement assistant Arnaud Delacour waited for a top gun rider to come free and landed superstar Javier Castellano.

BOTTOM LINE: He’s been a pari-mutuel friend to me all season, but in this case, a fringe EXOTICS CONTENDER. Fair win odds 20/1.

MR. Z

• Sold Wednesday & became 11th-hour Preakness entrant as D. Wayne Lukas facilitated transaction from Zayat to Calument. The Latest • Has been in steady race-mode since June of last year without a break, making 14th start lifetime in Preakness - tops in field. Form Cycle • Much more early speed than he's shown in recent races and would be no surprise to see him competing for the lead. Pace Style

Vulnerability

Best Case Scenario

X-Factor

• Mr. Z has lost 12 straight races and has had a problem going straight, bearing out several times, and inward in Derby.

• He took Dortmund and Firing Line to a 3-way photo finish in the Los Al Futurity in which he set the pace, losing by a head.

• Probably his best race this year came in Arkansas Derby when 3rd to American Pharoah - on 2 weeks' rest like Saturday.

BOTTOM LINE: Don’t be shocked if he hits the board 3rd or 4th at big odds, so consider an EXOTICS contender. Dubious win chances. Fair odds 15/1.

DANZIG MOON

• Confident placement in Preakness after troubled Kentucky Derby trip in which he took much early bouncing. The Latest • Steady progression of races and it would have been easy for Casse/Oxley to rest him and point to July 5 Queen's Plate. Form Cycle • Ran even-steven in Derby and maybe was too close to pace after adrenaline kicked in from early traffic. Settles more? Pace Style

Vulnerability

Best Case Scenario

X-Factor

• He was no match for Carpe Diem in Blue Grass 2nd and that one was Derby's biggest disappointment. Below top cusp?

• If American Pharoah, Firing Line and Dortmund attack one another more than they did in Derby, the late hope rides here.

• Jockey Julien Leparoux won the Lexington aboard Divining Rod and opted to jump off that runner to stay with this one.

BOTTOM LINE: He needs a lot to go right to shock the Preakness, and a fair amount still to land as an EXOTICS CONTENDER. Fair odds 8/1.

AMERICAN PHAROAH

• Baffert looks to go 4-for-4 at Pimlico with his Derby winners; Californians to win Derby are 6-for-8 in Preakness since '89. The Latest • Preakness will be his 3rd start in 5 weeks; it's noteworthy that Arkansas Derby is the lone '3-week' prep pre-Kentucky. Form Cycle • Showed some patience down backstretch of Derby that will bode well for him down the line. Can take control or sit a bit. Pace Style

Vulnerability

Best Case Scenario

X-Factor

• Exits a taxing race after having very little foundation under him this year or last. Reasonable chance he could bounce.

• If the Derby galvanized him and he can once again sit 3rd behind a Firing Line/Dortmund duel, it should be lights out.

• It will be much easier for the opposition to ride against him in a short field than in the Derby. Keeping him clear will be key.

BOTTOM LINE: Highly legitimate favorite and WIN contender, but only 2 Preakness winners from rail since 1951. Fair odds 9/5 if both Firing Line & Dortmund start given draw.

American Pharoah soaked up the attention of being THE Derby winner. Photo courtesy: Mike Kane

FIRING LINE

• Baffert looks to go 4-for-4 at Pimlico with his Derby winners; Californians to win Derby are 6-for-8 in Preakness since '89. The Latest • He could not be sitting ANY prettier given the 6-week break between the Sunland Derby and Kentucky Derby. Form Cycle • He may be naturally faster than both Dortmund and American Pharoah if let loose early, but wide draw allows him to spy. Pace Style

Vulnerability

Best Case Scenario

X-Factor

• He's lost 4 races by 1-3/4 lengths;l at some point you have to decide if he's a second-best fighter or a hanger to a degree.

• If Dortmund backs off a bit and lets Firing Line go, he could get brazen to any challenges late. Still a lone speed chance.

• Gary Stevens aims for his 10th Triple Crown race win & has learned to put the left-hand stick away on Firing Line.

BOTTOM LINE: Stands a major chance to turn the tables on the Derby champ as a WIN CONTENDER with a delicious post draw. Fair odds 5/2.

Gary Stevens is only 2 years removed from his upset with Oxbow.

DORTMUND

• 5-time Preakness winner Bob Baffert sending him to Pimlico is notable. He's never run a stablemate here vs. a Derby champ. The Latest • Races appear well-spaced on paper, but cramming San Felipe in-between Lewis & SA Derby may turn out to be too much. Form Cycle • Naturally fast & determined, but a bit suprised he was made the target in Derby. Can sit anywhere 1-2-3 and impact race. Pace Style

Vulnerability

Best Case Scenario

X-Factor

• Had issues saddling pre-race at Churchill & in schooling and was quite agitated behind starting gate pre-Ky Derby. Watch.

• If he relaxes pre-race and isn't pushed for too much too soon in the Preakness, he could be a tough hombre to pass late.

• Ran the second-fastest third quarter in Kentucky Derby history and that had much to do with his Louisville loss.

BOTTOM LINE: A WIN CONTENDER, he would not surprise me in the least bit to reverse the Derby finish ala Curlin in 2007. Fair odds 5/2, but you're much more likely to see something near 4/1 and the value pendulum swings his way on the third Saturday in May.

COUNTDOWN PREAKNESS PICKS:

Win: DORTMUND (pictured)

Place: FFIRINGG LINE

Show: AMERICAN PHAROAH

Fourth: DANZIG MOON

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