TECHNICAL
1 From apples to bark chips – block removed mid-season
Labour crisis 2021 The Covid-19 induced labour shortage looks set to cost the apple industry in the order of $100 million this harvest season. By Jack Hughes : Fruition Horticulture However, this may only be the tip of the iceberg as the flow-on effects of this financial hit kick in. In this article, we consider the industry response to this unfolding situation and recent advice being provided to policy makers. Definitive information to help predict what might happen isn’t readily available. A 2020 New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) report to the NZ Productivity Commission Could do better: Migration and New Zealand’s frontier firms provides some employment data to help quantify the situation (https://nzier.org.nz/publication/ could-do-better-migration-and-new-zealands-frontierfirms). This report estimates that the total horticultural workforce in New Zealand was around 60,000 in 2016 and that just over half of these workers were New Zealanders. The industry has grown significantly since 2016 so it can be safely assumed that at least 60,000 people are required for ‘hands-on’ work in 2021.
Using the available data in a ballpark forecast, its estimated that Recognised Seasonal Employer (RSE) scheme numbers will be more than 50% lower than last year while backpackers are probably 75% fewer. If optimistically, an extra 5,000 Kiwis joined the workforce, there would still be about 13,000 fewer people ‘on deck’ compared with last year (Table 1). Table 1. Forecasted 2021 horticultural labour supply Labour source
2020
2021 F
Change
RSE1
14,400
6,700
-53%
Backpackers
10,000
2,500
-75%
Kiwis3
32,400
37,300
15%
Total
60,000
46,500
-23%
2
1,2 NZAP, pers comm. Backpackers estimated at 20% of ‘point in time’ NZ total. 3 Kiwis 54% of 2020 total workforce.
The ORCHARDIST : FEBRUARY 2021 63
