W E S TC H E S T E R CO U N T Y
Commercial Market Report
Q3-2023
THIS REPORT IS PREPARED BY
Executive Summary
Writer: Teresa Marziano, Real Estate Salesperson
THIRD QUARTER ��23
Confidence does matter; it sustains consumers and investors in their path toward the future. The US economy has defied the consensus view that a recession would be hard to avoid. Economic strength has been underpinned by tight labor markets and a confident consumer. Clearly, these two key anchors of economic strength go hand in hand but labor markets, by themselves, cannot support market confidence. Employment, vacancies, and job creation have surprised on the upside; however, consumer confidence is now experiencing headwinds. Inflation is declining but not under control. Oil, and gasoline prices, are back to levels last seen in late spring 2022 threatening to undo gains achieved in taming inflation. Home purchase affordability is at multiyear low, and rental prices remain strong in most geographies. Household savings from the pandemic period are nearly exhausted, credit card balances are rising, and corporate bankruptcies have increased, rivaling 2020. All these factors are present at a time when there is a growing realization that interest rates may remain elevated for longer than initially expected. Furthermore, the global macroeconomic and political environment could unsettle a consumer that is already losing ground. Time will tell whether labor market resilience alone can sustain the uber confident US consumer through challenges ahead. Commercial real estate assets have been at the eye of the interest rate storm for many months now. The increase in interest rates across maturities, a deeply inverted yield curve and, most recently, a rapid rise in the yield of long dated bonds, are not constructive for commercial real estate valuations. The US deficit is concerning investors and in the most recent weeks, Treasury auctions have seen weakening demand perpetuating concerns that rates will stay higher for longer. Volatility in interest rates makes it very difficult to anchor real estate valuations. Further, transactions have declined meaningfully across property types, obscuring price discovery. Costar reports that 2023 is on track for the lowest transaction year since 2013. Westchester’s transaction volume is also trending at very low levels and determining asset valuation has become increasingly difficult for office and retail properties. Industrial and very small multifamily have a bid if priced at or below replacement value. Debt obligations held by commercial real estate owners have begun to reflect the more challenging fundamental and interest rate environment. According to Trepp, a leading provider of data to the Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) industry, 6.9% of outstanding commercial real estate loans have been transferred to special servicing, as of the end of September. These transfers take place when borrowers are not meeting mortgage obligations and the loans must be restructured under the supervision and management of an appointed special servicer. The September rate reflects an increase from the 5.6% servicing rate of six months ago. As a reference, the alltime high servicing rate was 13.4% in 2012. The largest increase during September was in office properties, up 62 basis points. Similarly, US banks are poised to take more impairment provisions than they have since the early days of the pandemic as higher-for-longer interest rates are impacting weak assets. These trends demonstrate the growing difficulties that commercial real estate assets are facing. Present and future liquidity available for debt refinancing will be crucial for the health of commercial real estate, the banking system, and the economy. Regional banks have meaningful exposure to commercial real estate and that exposure has grown over the last few years. According to Costar, annual commercial real estate loan growth at regional and community banks averaged 9.7% over the past eight years, while large bank commercial real estate loan portfolios grew at one-quarter of that rate, increasing an average of just 2.6% since 2016.
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Executive Summary
THIRD QUARTER ��23
In addition, regional and community banks are facing steep competition for deposits thus funding cost for new loans is high. In this environment, banks, and other financing sources, will only be willing to extend loans under terms and conditions (LTV, covenants, rate) that are dramatically different than terms on expiring loans. CRE sponsors must be prepared to inject equity and accept more conservative terms and amortization schedules to retain asset ownership. MULTIFAMILY RESIDENTIAL – STABLE AND PERFORMING WELL Multifamily residential assets in Westchester have enjoyed a multiyear period of strong fundamentals that continues. Over the last several years, vacancies have hovered around 4% and effective rents have increased -on a year over year basis – in most quarters over the last three years. Rock solid fundamentals have helped the market to absorb close to 1500 new units delivered in the last three quarters and new 6400 units delivered over the last three years. Prior to the Pandemic, households focused on walkability to work, play and transportation. Convenience and proximity to urbanity was a priority. The pandemic forced a refocusing of priorities among households. Convenience has been re-defined. Comfort and enough space to work from home, access to open air, nature, and opportunities to improve one’s well-being have been prioritized. Westchester multifamily buildings fall in the sweet spot of households’ objectives by offering tenants convenience -and many times walkability as wellplus better value per square foot. Easy access to great infrastructure, health care, wellness, and recreation, such as, affordable day trips to national parks and other nature friendly entertainment possibilities are highly sought after attributes that enhance the attractiveness of multifamily assets in Westchester. OFFICE PROPERTIES _ CHALLENGED ACROSS THE COUNTRY Westchester office buildings continue to face unfavorable trends and vacancies are at the highest level over the last three years. Leasing volumes were half of the average activity over the same period (three years). During the third quarter, Costar reported a large sub-let deal that moved the average lease rates positively. Office buildings, in Westchester and across the country, are facing evolving demands from tenants. A stream of departures plagues older buildings as companies favor newer buildings with amenities and convenient parking. In addition, to cope with labor scarcity, many companies have assembled remote workforces that utilize office space only for brief periods, thus reducing their office space needs. Amenities in office premises are now recognized as being an important recruiting and retention tool. Overall, corporations are shrinking their footprint but upgrading the fit and finish of the office space they keep. Lease expirations offer companies an opportunity to negotiate tenant improvement incentives from their current landlord or move to another building with a superior offering. RETAIL PROPERTIES FACE WEAKENING LEASING TRENDS Following a temporary improvement in retail space supply demand in Westchester, fundamentals have again weakened, and leasing trends have disappointed. Retail space demand in Westchester has been driven by food, beauty, and wellness concepts – including medical. This relatively narrow group of tenants is looking for visible, well-located properties that offer parking convenience. Many are new businesses that have yet to prove their concept’s success. National and regional brands continue to search in Westchester but are price sensitive as they have experience and understand the cost of opening a new location and the ramp-up period required to achieve store profitability. During Q3 2023, space was vacated, and availability increased in Westchester retail space. Leasing activity was very slow- only a third of average leasing volume over the last three years. Price weakened and it is now down 2% year to date and 3% from a year ago (12 months).
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Executive Summary
THIRD QUARTER ��23
INDUSTRIAL ASSETS REMAINS RESILIENT In sharp contrast to other property segments, Westchester industrial continues to enjoy strong demand. The consumer’s permanent adoption of shopping habits acquired during the Pandemic has underpinned an insatiable demand for industrial space in Westchester. In addition, many small industrial businesses that serve the needs of consumers and other businesses in Westchester need to find a domicile in proximity to their clients. This becomes increasingly harder as new zoning regulations have encouraged other uses to take over areas that had traditionally served industrial businesses in Westchester. Supply-demand for industrial space has been strong over the last two quarters, occupancy has increased, and rents are on the upswing – 7% in the most recent quarter. While price action in this most recent quarter was probably driven by a large lease transaction of a stateof-the-art facility, the message is that Westchester’s industrial sector continues to show remarkable strength. INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS DECLINE Commercial real estate markets have been in recession, even if the overall economy is not. The Federal Reserve efforts to control inflation by aggressively increasing interest rates has had a detrimental effect in commercial investment activity. In an environment where asset valuations are unclear, debt financing is scarce and more costly as compared to recent history, sale transactions have collapsed. However, the median price per square foot remained stable during the quarter. The market is beginning to see new offerings for sale, for now concentrated on office properties. We expect investor opportunities to emerge in earnest toward mid-2024 or when inflation trends stabilize, and investors can more confidently assess costs of improvement and future cash flows for investment properties that become available.
HOULIHAN LAWRENCE COMMERCIAL TEAM Commercial real estate is entering a challenging period as low interest rate maturities start to come due. Interesting commercial real estate investment opportunities will likely become available in short order. Liquidity is restrictive and poorly capitalized owners will seek to sell. However, there are numerous market and economic risks that will add to the complexities of acquiring commercial real estate. Understanding the market forces that are shaping the fundamentals for each property requires a deep knowledge of the property, local and regional insights, and close contacts with the right financial partners. Our Team is highly skilled in all these areas. Reach out to HOULIHAN LAWRENCE COMMERCIAL for a complementary assessment of your real estate, an evaluation of a purchase target, and to receive an in-depth perspective on the ever-changing Westchester commercial real estate market.
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Unemployment Rate in Westchester – Below Pre-Pandemic levels WESTCHESTER’S RATE OF UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS H O V E R I N G AT M U LT I Y E A R LO W S Westchester County Unemployment Statistics - Not Seasonally Adjusted 17.5
PERCENT
15.0 12.5 10.0 7.5 5.0 2.5 0.0
Jan 2019
Jul 2019
Jan 2020
Jul 2020
Jan 2021
Jul 2021
Jan 2022
Jul 2022
Jan 2023
Jul 2023
YEAR
J O B O P E N I N G S N AT I O N W I D E A R E M E A N I N G F U L LY H I G H E R THAN PRIOR TO THE PANDEMIC SUPPORTING A TIGHT LABOR MARKET DESPITE A SLOWDOWN IN THE ECONOMY
LEVEL IN THOUSANDS
Job Openings - Total Nonfarm 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000
Jan 2019
Jul 2019
Jan 2020
Jul 2020
Jan 2021
Jul 2021
Jan 2022
Jul 2022
Jan 2023
YEAR
Sources: COSTAR, Trepp, US. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Unemployment Westchester County (Not Seasonally Adjusted) , NY. Real Estate Employees Data is Seasonally Adjusted. All data retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; October 2023
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Multifamily Projects are Resilient — Strong Absorption of newly Constructed Units has not Weakened Fundamentals WESTCHESTER, SOUTH OF I-���
Effective multifamily rents continue to increase due to healthy demand Under Construction unit count is now declining as developers are facing meaningful increases in construction and financing costs.
W E S TC H E S T E R M U LT I FA M I LY - LO W VA C A N C Y AND RENT GROWTH
Asking Rent Per Unit
Vacancy Percentage
4%
$2,400 3%
$2,350 $2,300
2%
$2,250 1%
$2,200 $2,150
Q4 2020
Q1 2021
Q2 2021
Q3 2021
Q4 2021
Q1 2022
Q2 2022
Q3 2022
UNDER CONSTRUCTION UNITS
UNDER CONSTRUCTION PIPELINE DECLINING
Q4 2022
Q1 2023
Q2 2023
Q3 2023
Vacancy Percents
0
Deliveries Units
1,200
14%
1,000
12% 10%
800
8%
600
6%
400
4%
200
2% 0 Q4 2020
Q1 2021
Q2 2021
Q3 2021
Q4 2021
Q1 2022
Q2 2022
Q3 2022
Q4 2022
Q1 2023
Q2 2023
Q3 2023
DELIVERIES UNITS
ASKING RENT PER UNIT
$2,450
VAC A N C Y P E R C E N T
5%
$2,500
0
Sources: COSTAR, Trepp, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Data Reflects Fundamentals for Westchester County Area South of I-287. Price Index for Westchester retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; October 2023
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Westchester Office and Retail – Office Departures Continue but Prices Hold, Retail Fundamentals Sluggish WESTCHESTER, SOUTH OF I-���
Office rental pricing appears strong, despite rising vacancies. This is explained by leasing transactions showing a concentration in Class A, offices- commanding a higher price- and by a leasing deal commanding a high price. Retail shops continue to face a challenging retail environment, especially big box names with presence in Westchester.
$40
OCCUPANCY PERCENT
14%
$35
12%
$30
10%
$25
8%
$20
6%
$15
4%
$10
2% 0
$5 Q4 2020
Q1 2021
Q2 2021
Q3 2021
Q4 2021
Q1 2022
Q2 2022
Q3 2022
VACANCY PERCENTAGE
WESTCHESTER RETAIL: HEADWINDS CONTINUE
Q4 2022
Q1 2023
Q2 2023
Vacancy Percentage total
Q3 2023
0
All service type rent overall
9%
$32.5
8%
$32.0
7%
$31.5
6%
$31.0
5%
$30.5
4%
$30.0
3%
$29.5
2%
$29.0
1%
$28.5
0
Q4 2020
Q1 2021
Q2 2021
Q3 2021
Q4 2021
Q1 2022
Q2 2022
Q3 2022
Q4 2022
Q1 2023
Q2 2023
OFFICE GROSS RENT OVERALL
Office Gross Rent Overall
Q3 2023
$28.0
ALL SERVICE TYPE RENT OVERALL
Occupancy Percentage
OFFICE RENTS INCREASE HELPED BY A HIGH SUBLET DEAL
Sources: COSTAR, Trepp, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Data Reflects Fundamentals for Westchester County Area South of I-287. Price Index for Westchester retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; October 2023
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Industrial Properties – Price and Occupancy gains SOUTH OF I-���
Industrial space data suggests that supply-demand fundamentals -occupancy and asking rents- will continue to be favorable.
Vacancy Percentage
All Service Type Rent Overall
$17.0 VACANCY PERCENTAGE
6% $16.5 5%
$16.0
4%
$15.5
3
$15.0
2
$14.5
1 0
$14.0
Q4 2020
Q1 2021
Q2 2021
Q3 2021
Q4 2021
Q1 2022
Q2 2022
Q3 2022
Q4 2022
Q1 2023
Q2 2023
Q3 2023
$13.5
ALL SERVICE TYPE RENT OVERALL
STRONG FUNDAMENTALS CONTINUE FOR INDUSTRIAL ASSETS
Sources: COSTAR, Trepp, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Data Reflects Fundamentals for Westchester County Area South of I-287. Price Index for Westchester retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; October 2023
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Investment Activity Weakens Further Price Discovery Becomes Increasingly Difficult SOUTH OF I-���
Investment sales remain very weak underscoring valuation and financing concerns. A Federal Reserve that is determined to win the fight to control inflation and interest rate volatility across maturities has increased value uncertainty for commercial real estate. Transaction volumes are collapsing responding to value uncertainty.
Dollar Volume (in Thousands)
Median Price Per Building SF
$300
$800,000 $700,000
$250
$600,000
$200
$500,000
$150
$400,000 $300,000
$100
$200,000
$50
$100,000 0
Q4 2020
Q1 2021
Q2 2021
Q3 2021
Q4 2021
Q1 2022
Q2 2022
Q3 2022
Q4 2022
Q1 2023
Q2 2023
Q3 2023
0
Sources: COSTAR, Trepp, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Data Reflects Fundamentals for Westchester County Area South of I-287. Price Index for Westchester retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; October 2023
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MEDIAN PRICE PER BLDG SF
SALES VOLUME IN THOUSANDS
TRANSACTIONS COLLAPSE