Preparing to Dream Talking Points

THE CHANGING FACE OF HOUSTON: Tracking the Economic and Demographic Transformations Through 29 Years of Houston Surveys STEPHEN L. KLINEBERG Preparing to Dream Spring Institute May 5, 2010

THE HOUSTON AREA SURVEY (1982-2010) 

Supported by local foundations, corporations, and individuals, and now housed in Rice’s Institute for Urban Research, the annual surveys have interviewed 29 scientifically selected successive representative samples of Harris County residents.



In May 1982, just two months after the first Houston Area Survey was completed, the 80-year oil boom suddenly collapsed.



The region recovered from the deep and prolonged recession of the mid 1980s to find itself squarely in the midst of . . .

• a restructured economy and • a demographic revolution.



These are the same transformations that are refashioning all of American society. The Houston surveys have tracked area residents’ changing perspectives on these remarkable trends.

FIGURE 1: POSITIVE RATINGS OF JOB OPPORTUNITIES IN THE HOUSTON AREA (1982-2010) 90 85 80

Percent rating job opportunities in the Houston area as either "excellent" or "good."

76

75 70

67

65

Percent Giving Positive Ratings

73

72

67

60

60 53

55

52

50

47

46

45 40

40

50

49

41

38

41

35

52

48

45

57

39

40

38

31

30 27

25

29

20

27

18

15 10

11

5 0 82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

Year of Survey

98

99 OO O1 O2 O3 O4 O5 O6 O7 O8 O9 10

FIGURE 2: NEGATIVE RATINGS OF JOB OPPORTUNITIES IN RELATION TO THE OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATES (1982-2010) 105

11

100

10.5

10.1

95

Percent rating "job opportunities" in the Houston area as only "fair" or "poor," in comparison with the official unemployment rates in Harris County.

9.8

90

9.6

85

87

9

75

70 71

70 60

65

7.8

7.8

56

58 50

52

52

45

56

7.1

43

48

6.8

6.3 6.0

30

5.7

25

(Official Unemployment rates in Harris County)

23

5.2

5.2

25

5.6

5.9

30

30

7

46 42

6.4

35

20

7.5

(Negative ratings of job opportunities)

49

7.0

56

42

6.7

40

59 8

58 54

55 50

8.5

65

8.3

65

8.5

6.0

36

5.9

6.5

6.3 38

6

23

5.5

4.8

5 4.5

4.5

4.7

10

4.4

4.3

5

4

4.1

4.1

0

3.5 82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

Year of Survey

98

99

OO

O1

O2

O3

O4

O5

O6

O7

O8

O9

10

Official Unemployment Rates

Percent Giving Negative Ratings

9.5

80

80

15

10

FIGURE 3: “WHAT IS THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IN THE HOUSTON AREA TODAY?” (1982-2010) 85 80 75

73

72

Traffic

70

Economy

Crime

65

Percent of Respondents

65

(Economy.)

60

60

60 55

59 (Crime.)

54 51

48

50 43

45 40

49

42

41

40

37

(Traffic.)

37

35

39

35 30

44

45

34

34

36 33

38 35

33 28 26

26

31

27

25 20

20

19

17

15 13

10

11

14

5

8

6 84

85

86

87

14

12

9 3

0 83

88

89

90

25

24 21

12 12

11

8

25

22

21

20 13

10

82

22

24

23

31

31

91

3

4 92

93

94

7 95

8

96

10

97

19

26 18 13

12 8

98

Year of Survey

99

20 15

13 11

OO

9

O1

O2

24 24

10

11

O3

O4

18

15 15

13 10

O5

O6

O7

O8

O9

10

FIGURE 4: PERCENT DOING BETTER FINANCIALLY IN LAST FEW YEARS AND EXPECTING TO DO BETTER IN NEXT FEW YEARS (1982-2010) 85 80

Personal financial situation has been "getting better" during the last few years.

75

Think that will be "better off" financially three or four years down the road.

Percent Saying, "Better."

70 65

66 63

65

63

62

60

60 55 50

58

60 58

(Next few years.)

53 51

58

57

42

49

49

41 38

40

33

(Last few years.)

52 48

44

41

40 37 35

34

32

58

42

37

35

31

60

48

32

30

60

(r=-.026, p.=.001)

45

40

37

60

56

47 43

62

62

59

53

47

45

35

59

58

64

31

32

(r=-.005, n.s.)

31

25 20 20

15 10

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

Year of Survey

99

OO O1

O2

O3

O4

O5

O6

O7

O8

O9

10

FIGURE 5: RATINGS OF THE HOUSTON AREA IN GENERAL AS A PLACE TO LIVE (1996-2010) 105 100 95 90

"How w ould you rate the Houston area in general as a place to live?"

Excellent/Good

Fair/Poor

81.7

85 80

Percent of Respondents

75.4

72.1

75 70 65

(r=+.079, p.=.000)

71.4

71.4

66.5

60 55 50 45 40 35

32.8 27.2

30

27.7

27.5 23.5

25 20

17.7

15 10 5 0

1996

2001

2004

2006

Year of Survey

2008

2010

THE RESTRUCTURED ECONOMY 

The “resource economy” of the industrial era, for which this city was so favorably positioned, has been replaced by a new high-tech, knowledge-based, fully worldwide marketplace.



The traditional “blue collar path” to financial security has now largely disappeared. Almost all the good-paying jobs today require high levels of technical skills and educational credentials.



In 2010, 67% of the survey respondents agreed that “There are very few good jobs in today’s economy for people without a college education.” In the 2008 survey, 74% disagreed that “A high school education is enough to get a good job.”



In this increasingly unequal, hourglass economy, “What you earn,” as the saying goes, “depends on what you’ve learned.”

FIGURE 6: TWO CONTRASTING QUARTERCENTURIES SINCE WORLD WAR II Percent Increase in Before-Tax Incomes

160 150

Bottom 20%

Second 20%

Middle 20%

Fourth 20%

Top 20%

Top 5%

140 130 120 110 100 90

116

111 100

114 99 86

80 68

70 60 46

50 40 30

22

20 10

4

9

13

0 The Postwar Quarter-Century (1949-1979)

The Millennial Quarter-Century (1979-2003)

Percent Increases in Before-Tax Household Incomes Source: U.S. Census; Robert H. Frank. 2007. Falling Behind. Berke ley, CA: University of California Press, pp. 10-11.

FIGURE 7: CHANGING PERSPECTIVES ON THE AMERICAN ECONOMY (1994-2010) 100 95

Agree: There are enough good jobs for all welfare recipients who really want to work.

90

Best way to reduce crime is to spend the money on poverty and schools (rather than more prisons).

Believe own overall standard of living is or will be higher than parents' standard of living.

Percent of Respondents

85

79

80 (r=+.182, p.=.000)

75

72

70 65

66

(Own living standards will be higher than parents'.)

65 (r=+.034, p.=.028)

61

60

60 55

57

(Spend the money on poverty, schools; not prisons.)

57

56

50 50 45

(Enough good jobs for all on welfare who want to work.) (r=-.158, p.=.000)

40

43

35 30 25

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Year of Survey

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

THE DEMOGRAPHIC REVOLUTION 

Along with the major immigration capitals of L.A. and N.Y.C., and closely following upon Miami, San Francisco, and Chicago, Houston is at the forefront of the new diversity that is refashioning the socio-political landscape of urban America.



Throughout all of its history . . .



•

this was essentially a bi-racial Southern city,

•

dominated and controlled, in an automatic, takenfor-granted way, by white men.

Today . . .

•

Houston is one of the most culturally diverse metropolitan areas in the country, and

•

all of its ethnic communities are now “minorities.”

FIGURE 8: THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSFORMATIONS OF HARRIS COUNTY (1960-2008) 4.5 Anglos

Population, in Millions

4.0

Blacks

Hispanics

Asians/Others

3.5

6.7%

3.0

32.9%

2.1%

22.7% 15.5%

2.0

0.8% 9.9%

1.5 0.3%

0.5

39.3%

4.1%

2.5

1.0

6.7%

19.7%

19.1%

18.2%

54.0%

42.1%

17.9%

20.1% 6.0% 19.8% 73.9%

69.2%

62.7%

36.0%

0.0

1960 (1,243,258)

1970 (1,741,912)

1980 (2,409,547)

1990 (2,818,199)

2000 (3,400,578)

2008, est.* (3,984,349)

Source: U.S. Census (www.census.gov); classifications based on Texas State Data Center conventions; total populations are given in parentheses; *from the 2008 Official Population Estimates.

INTERACTIONS OF ETHNICITY AND AGE 

The other demographic revolution: the remarkable “aging,” or “graying,” of the American population.



Today’s seniors are primarily Anglos, as are the 76 million Americans born between 1946 and 1964, now aged 46 to 64.

In the next 30 years, the numbers over age 65 will double.



The younger cohorts, who will replace the “Baby Boomers,” are disproportionately non-Anglo and far less privileged.



The “aging of America” is thus a division not only by generation, but also by socioeconomic status and ethnic background.



Nowhere is this ongoing transformation more clearly seen than in the age distributions of the Harris County population.

FIGURE 9: THE PROPORTIONS IN FOUR AGE GROUPS WHO ARE ANGLO, BLACK, LATINO, AND ASIAN OR OTHER (2006-2010, COMBINED) 85 80

Anglos

Blacks

Hispanics

Asians/Others

Percent of Respondents

75 70

67.3

65 60.0

60 55 50

45.1

45

41.5

40 35 28.4

30 24.6

25 20 15

19.2

23.6 22.7

19.1 16.0 11.2 8.6

10 5

4.9

5.5

2.3

0

Ages 60-93 (N=941)

Ages 45-59 (N=1,092)

Ages 30-44 (N=785)

Ages 18-29 (N=556)

FIGURE 10: MEASURES OF SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS AMONG LATINO IMMIGRANTS BY TIME IN U.S. AND BY GENERATION (1994-2010) 105 100 95

In U.S. 0-9 years (N=1,238)

In U.S. 10-19 years (N=1,213)

2nd generation (N=1,524)

3rd+ generation (N=2,392)

In U.S. 20+ years (N=1,034)

90 83

Percent of Respondents

85 80

77

75

70

69

70

72

71

70

68

65 59

60

56

54

55

52

49

50

45

45

44

39

40

39

37 34

34

35 30 25

50

49

24

24

23

20

26

29 25

25

17

15 10 5 0 Education beyond high school.

Household income greater than $35,000.

Uses a computer at work or home.

Has health insurance Lives in the suburbs, for self and family. outside the city.

Owns the place where lives.

Percent of Respondents

FIGURE 11: INDICATORS OF ASSIMILATION AMONG LATINO IMMIGRANTS BY TIME IN THE U.S. AND BY GENERATION (1994-2010) 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

In U.S. 1-9 years (N=1,229)

In U.S. 10-19 years (N=1,202)

2nd generation (N=1491)

3rd+ generation (N=2,294)

In U.S. 20+ years (N=1,021)

92 87

84

84 78

78 72 68

67

64

63 59

57

55

53 49 43

40 34

27 18

30

34 29

18

48

45

31 26 15

The interview was Respondent thinks of Preschoolers likely to A disapproved-of The U.S. should admit Three closest friends conducted in English, self as primarily have problems later if book should be kept more immigrants in in Houston are all rather than Spanish.

Hispanic. both parents work. out of public libraries. the next ten years.

Hispanics.

FIGURE 12: CHANGING ASSESSMENTS OF HOUSTON’S ETHNIC DIVERSITY (1994–2010) 95 90

The increasing diversity will become a source of great strength (not a growing problem) for the city.

85

The increasing ethnic diversity, due to immigration, is a good thing (rather than a bad thing).

The increasing immigration mostly strengthens (rather than threatens) American culture.

80

Percent of Respondents

75 69

70

(r=+.082, p.=.000)

67

63

65 60

69

65 66 64

(A good thing.)

55

64 60

59

57

69

(Source of strength.)

62

61 (r=+.020, n.s.)

57

54

55

50

52

(r=+.039, p.=.021)

49

45 44

(Strengthens American culture.)

40 39

35 30 25 20 1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Year of Survey

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

FIGURE 13: SUPPORT FOR GAY RIGHTS (FROM 1991 THROUGH 2010) 100 95 Favor: Allowing homosexuals to teach in the public schools. [r=+.094, p.=.000]

90

Favor: Homosexuals being legally permitted to adopt children. [r=+.215,p.=.000]

85

Favor: Alowing gays and lesbians to serve openly in the military. [r=+.185, p.=000]

Percent of Respondents

80

Agree: Give homosexual marriages same legal status as heterosexual marriages. [r=+.050, p.=.000]

73

75 70

66

65

60

60

(Gays teaching.)

59

56

55

52

(Gays in military.)

52

50

48

43

45

41 37

40 34

35

41

38

36

43

(Gay marriage.)

37

30

30

32

29

25

27

26

(Gay adoptions.)

20 15

64

19

10 5 0 1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

Year of Survey

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

CONCLUSIONS: HOUSTON AND AMERICA FACE SOME FORMIDABLE CHALLENGES 

This city and nation will need to nurture a far more educated workforce, and fashion policies that can reduce the growing inequalities and prevent the rise of a new urban underclass.



To attract the most innovative companies and talented individuals, Houston will need to grow into a more environmentally appealing urban destination, and develop the research centers that will fuel the critical drivers of the new economy.



If the region is to flourish in the 21st century, it will need to develop into a much more unified and inclusive multiethnic society, one in which equality of opportunity is truly made available to all citizens and all of its communities are invited to participate as full partners in shaping the Houston future.

CONTACT INFORMATION The “Institute for Urban Research” at Rice University Professor Stephen L. Klineberg, Co-Director 713-348-3484 or slk@rice.edu Contact Rice University (at: has@rice.edu; or call 713-348-4225) for copies of the following publications: * the report on the first 24 years of Houston surveys (Public Perceptions in Remarkable Times, 2005) * the report on survey findings in the six major sectors of the greater Houston area (Regional Perspectives, 2007) For further information, or to download additional reports and PowerPoint slides, please visit the Institute’s websites, at: www.iur.rice.edu or www.houstonareasurvey.org