Huiru Shen - LAR 7020 Module I - Unpacking the Valley

IM MIGRATION

HUIRU SHEN| XIAOWEI LIN | YAO TONG

LAR 7020 FOUNDATION STUDIO | PROTOTYPING THE TERRITORY MODULE I | UNPACKING THE VALLEY

1

2

I’m immigration, and I’m migrating.

We are wandering, and we are rooted.

3

The immigration history of the United States is linked to both man-made and natural events and situations around the world. Ecological events, economics and social unrest - those externalities can all influence who, why, and when people have come to this country. U.S. Immigration policies reflect this country’s emotional and political climate in reaction to or in anticipation of these events and occurrences.

Struggling, hesitating, sharing, producing... they are the ‘majority-miniority’, their voice matters, they are not the others.

What is their story after accomplishing the action of ‘immigrating’? What will be the new externalities that triger another version of movement? What are the forces that will drive them to complish the transition from immigrating to migrating?

They are wandering, and they are rooted.

1861.12-1862.1

1881

The Great Flood: 30,000 years flood event.

1848

Gold Rush of California caused people to migrate west for a better life.

Californians use Chinese immigrants as part of the work force.

Millions of European immigrants looking for better living conditions.

World War I: U.S.involvement 1917-1918

Steam Engines

1883

1861

Wildfire

1892 1882

Chinese Exclusion Act bars the entry of all Chinese

1868

1850

Flood

1856

Iron and Steel

1863-64 Drought

The first Japanese laborers arrive in Hawaii seeking a new way of life. Some of them migration to Southern California.

4 1850

1860

30 20 10

COUNTRY AMOUNT

19

Electric

American Civil War begins with Confederates firing on Union Soldiers. Immigration decreases during the American Civil War.

1849

1914-1918

1880s

Ellis Island Immigrarion Station opens.

1910

1909

California flood

Dr Ce Pro

Angel Island Immigrarion Station is put into operation near to San Francisco

1890 1875

Page Law bars entry of Chinese and Japanese, and “Mongolian� contract laborers.

1885

Fuel and Power

Alien Contract Labor Law prohibits any company or individual from bringing foreigners into the United States

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

30,579

38,508

44,776

45,144

60,672

80,387

19

East Asia South Asia West Asia North America Europe

SOCIAL EVENTS

Latin America Oceania ECOLOGICAL EVENTS

Other 100,000 10,000 1,000

TECHNOLOGICAL EVENTS

83

1990 1965

1929

The Stock Market crash leads to the Great Depression.

1939-1945

World War II begins in Europe and Asia.

1986-1992

Immigration and Nationality Act abolishes the national orgins quota system.

California’s longest droughts ever

The Immigration Act of 1990 increases the number of immigrants allowed into the United States each year to 700,000.

1995

929-1934

1933.12-1934.1

Crescenta Valley flood

1950

Drought: the State Water Project

1944-60

1952

California flood

1955

1938

Los Angeles Flood

1944 DDT

1997

Northern California flood

1998

1964

Kern County of Central Valley

Santa Ana flood

California and Western Nevada floods

Green Revolution

California flood

1937

California flood

1986

1950s

rought: The entral Valley oject

1986

California flood

The Immigration Reform and Control Act gives amnesty to approximately three million undocumented residents and provides punishments for employers who hire undocumented workers.

1948

The Displaced Persons Act permits Europeans displaced by the war.

The American Competitiveness and Work force Improvement Act increases the number of skilled temporary foreign workers U.S

2000

Genetically modified plants

2007-2009

the worst wildfires in California history

5

930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

3,656

88,957

95,807

398,585

123,350

251,610

495,679

776,984

1023,086

IMMIGRATION COMPOSITION EVOLUTION

1880s

1,362

1900s

2,852

16,238

22,064

15,150

12,123

6 2,095

Asia

38,508

North America

346

Europe

Latin AmericaOthers

TILL 1890S - THE ODD POST-WAR PERIOD

Asia

45,144

North America

Europe

Latin America Others

1900S ~ 1970S - CALIFORNIA

1940s

1990s

223,842 132,486 6,958

40,348

7,632

11,950 10,296

2,033 1,100

3,695 7

16,296

North America

Europe

87,384

A’S GOLDEN AGE

Southeast Latin Asia America

West Asia

Others

North Asia America

495,697

Southeast Asia

Europe

Latin America

West Asia

Others

1990S ~ PRESENT - CALIFORNIA’S DARK AGE

A BRIEF HISTORY OF CALIFORNIAN MIGRATION

TILL 1890S - THE ODD POST-WAR PERIOD Despite California’s pleasant climate, rich soils, growing economy, and its newly-forged transcontinental rail-link, net migration was more-or-less flat through the 1860s, 1870s, and 1880s, then dropped off sharply during the economically tumultuous 1890s.

8

1900S ~ 1970S - CALIFORNI

This period was the best migration years anywhere ever had. Californi a brief interlude during the post-WWII demobilization. Oil, movies, investments, growing trans-pacific trade, and agriculture were the ke success from the 1930s to the 1960s was as much a product of Federal

IA’S GOLDEN AGE

ia received essentially 70 years of constant positive net migration, with growing west-coast manufacturing, urbanization, military and naval ey drivers of growth until the 1930s. And then California’s migratory favor as local competitiveness

1990S ~ PRESENT - CALIFORNIA’S DARK AGE The decline of the textile industry since the 1990s, cutbacks and geographic reshuffling in the defense and aerospace industries, and the ever-increasing burden of local regulations, price inflation, and taxation have made California relatively uncompetitive versus other states. With the decline of much of California s manufacturing sector, the middle class, and especially the lower end of it, has begun to hollow out, hence why California has among the fastest-rising income inequality in the nation. At the same time high income people have volatile incomes as well. The result is fairly wild swings between apparently cataclysmic budget shortfalls, to suddenly almost excessive budget surpluses.

9

RESTAURANTS IN FRESNO

10

East Asia South Asia Europe South America

FRESNO IMMIGRANTS POPULATION DISTRIBUTION 800 700 600

FROM OTHER STATES Northeast Midwest South West

500 400 300 200 100 0

0 11 500

1000

1500

2000

2500 NorthAmerica 3000

Oceania Africa Europe

3500

Asia Latin FROM OTHER CONTINENTS

4000

12

Scenarios should become brief narratives that link historical and present events with hypothetical future events. Within the sible, each scenario should be clearly anchered in the past, with the future emerging from the past and present in a seamless the initial question... Successful scenarios are vivid and different, can be told easily, and plausibly capture future transform

For immigrations’s future in Central Valley, we proposes three scenarios from ecological, economic and social l in an aging society? Where to settle if housing is no longer affordable?... It doesn’t mean that we’ve already sette and California’s unique context. The future is still hazy, and the only thing we can do is to move forward gropin

ese storylines the internal assumptions of the scenario and the differences between stories must be clearly visible. To be plauway... Whatever approach is taken, each story should track the key indicator variable ways that have been selected based on mation. (Peterson et al, 2002)

lens. What will happen if Central Valley is dominated by catalyst events? How the work structure might change ed up stages and scripts for the ‘actors’, instead, we try to chase and trace their footprints based on Central Valley ngly.

13

Since 2040s

2051

Well Drilling Technology Highly Developed

Immigration Organization fights for equal education oppotunities

2030

2060

Since 2020

California’s elderly population achieves 15millions

Asia has surpassed Latin America as California’s leading source of new immigrants

Ground level keeps decreasing

California’s Dry Period

California’s population achieves 42 millions

2039-2045 2045-2049 California’s California’s Dry Period Wet Period

California’s elderly population achieves 30 millions

2060s

2049-2054

2020

California’s California’s population achie achie population 70 millions millions 70

2080

California’s population achieves 55 millions

2108

2066-2073

Irrigation system in San Joaquin Valley breaks down because of ground angle changing

California’s Dry Period

2050s

More than 300 new wells are annually dug.

2078

Central Valley Flooding

14

2020

2030

2040

2050

2095 2095

2060

2070

2080

2090

2099 2099

Depth o Depth achieve achieve

Till 2150 Farming production efficiency has double compared with 2010

eves

2145

California’s elderly population achieves 55 millions

2120s

2096-2109

Large farming acerage in Central Valley has subsided more than 30ft

California’s Wet Period

2105

Taxes are raised again for social pension funds

of drilling well es 2000ft

2108

Central Valley Flooding

2124

Central Valley Flooding

2100

2110

2120

2130

2137

Central Valley Flooding

2140

2150

MIGRATION URBANIZATION

Since 2080s

Both economical and political agencies contribute to release aging society situation

15

16

JUAN’S STORY

Juan Manual

Los Angleles, CA

2014 - 2020

Since 2014, Juan decided to go to U.S. to seek for better job oppotunities with higher salary. At first, he arrived Tehama in California to see if his friends who are working there can help him start his exploration on this unfamiliar land.

Tehama, CA

2021 - 2025

Within the rapid development and competition in weel drilling industry, Juan went to Leite Pump and Water Well Inc and becomes a skilled worker.

San Joaquin, CA

Then he moved to Central Valley, where located dense agriculture related industry. Juan worked in Fresno and Kings as farming labor till 2020.

Fresno, CA Kings, CA

1995 - 2013

2025 -

Juan was born in Mexico in May, 1995 in Álvaro Obregón. After completing his education in Edron Academy (El Colegio Británico) High School in 2012, he was a school shuttle driver for one and a half years.

Since 2025, Juan is a Left Driver in Los Angeles.

Álvaro Obregón, CDMX, Mexico

Los Angeles, CA

17

SHORTAGE OF IRRIGATION -3

Wet Year

Above Avergae Temperature

Dry Year

Below Avergae Temperature

-2

-1

Degrees (F°)

Groundwater Storage (km3)

10

0

0

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

1

-10 Central Valley is Facing a Tendency of Groudnwater Shortage

2

Thermoelectric Mining Aquaculture Livestock

3

Industrial Public Supply 14,600 Domestic

18

California is Getting Warmer.

4

Irrigation 53,500

Precipitation(in) 3.0 2.5

Water Withdrawals Per Day (million gallons)

2.0 1.5

Groundwater Highly Supplies the Rural Population in Central Valley and is an important component in Many Industrial Process.

1.0

Monthly Precipitation in Central Valley 2008-2018(in)

0.5 0

4.0

2008

2009

2010

2011

3.5

3.0 2.5 2.0

3.0

1.5

2.5

1.0 0.5

2.0

2012

2013

2014

2015

0

1.5 3.0

1.0

2.5 2.0

0.5

Normal Precipitation

0 Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

There is a tendency of precipitation lowering than normal condition.

Surface water can hardly meet overall irrigation need.

Monthly Precipitation

Dec

2016 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec

2017

2018

1.5 1.0 0.5 0

SUBSIDENCE TENDENCY

19

Approximate location of maximum subsidence in the United States identified by Dr. Joseph F. Poland.

San Joaquin Valley southwest of Mendota, California.

In the future, Carlifornia is facing a climate condition of getting warmer. Annual precipitation cannot fully supply enough surface water for irrigation, thus groundwater becomes a significant source for farming irrigation.

In this context, high demand for groundwater lowers groudn level amd causes serve subsidence, which directly impeded the development of agriculture.

Meanwhile digging wells also aggravate this issue.

Subsidence decreases farming sustainability.

CHANING IMMIGRATION DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE

Immigrants From Asia Tend to be Highly Educated.

60%

Aisan

30%

85%

Indian

35%

Latin American

Have Least a Bachelor’s Degree

California Born

Latinos Have Replaced Whites As the Largest Ethnic Group in California.

5.5%

5.8%

14.7%

12.8%

120,000

19.3%

Latin American

5.3% 7.6%

140,000

100,000 Asia Has Surprasses Latin America as the Leading Source of New Immigrants 80,000

41.5%

39.1%

Asian

66.8%

60,000

6

37.0%

20

Others4

35.8%

40,000 Nine Years of Job Growth Add up to One of the Longest Expansion in Recent History.

20,000

2 0

0

1990 -2

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

World

-4

California

-6 -8

White

Latino

Asian

American Indian

Aferican

Two or more races 38.4

40

33.0

Immmigration demographic structure is gradually changing.

30

20

10

No High School Diploma

High School Graduate

Some Collage

Associate Degree

By 2030, California May Have a Shortage of Highly Educated Workers.

Bachelor’s Degree or More

0

Share of All Workers (%)

In the future, Natural incfrease and international migration account for all of California’s growth, and inland areas are growing at higher rates though most residents still live along the coast.

While Latinos have replaced whites as the largest ethnic group, immigration from Latin America has slowed. Meanwhile, immigration from Asia has increased, and many of them have veen highly educated, which will bereally in urgent need of by the California society.

AGING CALIFORNIA

1,000,000

504,000 251,000

700,000

1,242,000

400,000 1,637,000

Change in California Population

by Age Group 2015 - 2030

1,300,000

100,000

-200,000 0-4

5-9

10 - 14

15 - 19

20 - 24

25 - 29

30 - 34

35 - 39

40 - 44

45 - 49

50 - 54

55 - 59

60 - 64

65 - 69

70 - 47

75 - 79

80 - 84

Even though California’s population is the seventh-youngest in the country, it is aging rapidly. In 2017, 14 percent of Californians were 65 and older, compared with only 9 percent in 1970. By 2030, that share will be 19 percent.

The total number of adults 65 and older is projected to grow from 5.5 million in 2017 to 9.1 million in 2030.

The number of seniors in every major racial/ethnic group will increase by 2030 and no ethnic group will compose a majority of the senior population.

California’s population is aging.

21

SUBSIDENCE DECREASES FARMING SUSTAINABILITY

Effect to Man-made Infrestructure The greatest effects occur to infrastructures that traverse a subsiding area. Many water conveyance structures, including long stretches of the California Aqueduct, are gravity driven through the use of very small gradients; even minor changes in these gradients can cause reductions in designed flow capacity. Managers of the canals have to repeatedly retrofit their canals to keep the water flowing.

Effect to Natural System Compaction of the aquifer system, sight unseen, may permanently decrease its capacity to store water. Even if water levels rose, compacted sediments would remain as-is.

Subsidence occurring today is a legacy for all tomorrows.

Urban Area

22 Highly Problematic Area

Potential Problem Area Surface River -16.0 ~ -10.0 -10.0 ~ -7.5

Elevation Change 2013-2018 (ft)

-7.5 ~ -5.0 -5.0 ~ -2.9 -2.9 ~ -1.3 -1.3 ~ -0.4 -0.4 ~ 0.0 Similar to Historical Above Historical Moderate Great Extreme

Subsidence Projection 2010-2099

UNPACKING SUBSIDENCE Elevation Change 2013-2018 (ft)

Groundwater Prioritization

-16.0 ~ -10.0

High

-10.0 ~ -7.5

Moderate

-7.5 ~ -5.0

Low

-5.0 ~ -2.9 -2.9 ~ -1.3 -1.3 ~ -0.4 -0.4 ~ 0.0

23

Subsidence Contour Change 2008-2010(mm)

Subsidence Projection 2010-2099(ft)

25

Similar to Historical

50 ~ 100

Above Historical

100 ~ 150

Moderate

150 ~ 280

Great

280 ~ 410

Extreme

> 410

24

“WATCH O

OUT DRIVING!”

25

MIGRATING PATTERN Effect of Aging Society Shortage of workers. An ageing population could lead to a shortage of workers and hence push up wages causing wage inflation. Alternatively, firms may have to respond by encouraging more people to enter the workforce, through offering flexible working practices.

Changing sectors within the economy. An increase in the numbers of retired people will create a bigger market for goods and services linked to older people (e.g. retirement homes)

Increasingly growing senior population area have more potential working oppotunities.

San Joaquin

26 Fresno

San Benito

Urbanization Porjection 2020

2060

Percentage Increase of Elderly Population 2010 - 2060 Age 60 and Over

Age 85 and Over

Over 200%

Over 400%

150 ~ 299.9%

300 ~ 399.9%

100 ~ 149.9%

200 ~ 299.9%

50 ~ 99.9%

150 ~ 199.9%

Under 50%

50 ~ 149.9%

Shortage of Care Providers High Low

Medium

San Bernardino

Riverside

27

ACTIVE? PASSIVE?

209

Red

2089

The Other Big One Flood

2064

Extreme Heat

2069-2100

2045

Promote Effective plans,programs and policies and intergrate actions

Drilling Technology

2039

Encourag other Ind

2065

2046

Extreme Drought

2090-21

Sea level Rise

Irrigarion Technology

2090

Extreme Drought

2069

Reinforce Leeves

28

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2135

2140

New Energy Technology

120

ge develope dustry

Extreme Heat

2120-2125 2124

2106

New Engergy Plant

Extreme Wildfire

2118

Ecourage Immigrantion

2130

2150

New Agriculture mode

Extreme Flood

Extreme Heat 2107 Refrigeration Technique

Extreme Storm

2100

Sea level Rise

2100

2110

2120

2130

2140

2150

CLIMATE CHANGE REFUGES

93

disgn Leeves

29

30

NGUYEN’S STORY

Vo Nguyen Lien

Austin, TX

2100 He dreamed live to New Zealand to realize his dream of being a movie fan of The Hobbit.

Wellington, New Zealand

31

1995-2039 Nguyen’s grandparents and his parents worked on a corn farm land. Then Nguyen was born in Summer of the 2039,when an extreme drought happened.

Sacramento, CA

2040-2065 Nguyen’s family decided to move to San Francisco and he got his Bachelor of Engineering.

San Francisco, CA

Fresno, CA

2065-2089 Ho Chi Ming City, Vietnam

Nguyen’s grandparents immigrated to the States, when many re-education-camp inmates were released and sponsored by their families in the US. 1992

He migrated to Fresno due to the threatening of sea level rise and got a job in energy industry.

Austin, TX

Nguyen suffered the Other Big One Flood and moved to the Austin.

2089-2100

INCREASING TEMPERATURE- PUBLIC HEALTH

Days exceeding 106.6°F per year

15 12

60

9 6 3 0

1960-1980 50

50

40 30 20 10 0

1980-2000

40

60

32

50 40

30

30 20 10 0

2000-2020

20 100 80 60

10

40 20 0

5.1

4.1 1.9

2020-2040

1960

1980

2000

2020

Observed Data(1950-2013) Model Projections (2006-2100)

Fresno Could Exper

250

Oct

200 150

54.1

100

Sep

50 0

Aug

42.8

2040-2060

250 200 150

Jul

100

33

50

27.2

0

Jun

2060-2080

350 300 250

May

13

200 150 100

Apr

2040

rience Extreme Heat

2060

Temperature Range(°F)

106.6-108.0

2080 108.0-109.7 109.7-111.9

2100 111.9-123.8

50 0

2080-2100

34

8

0.5% 5% 50% 67%

30

6

20

4

10

2

0

0 1900

1950

2000

Projections of Sea Level Rise

2050

2100

moderate rate current rate current emmission scenario emmission

8°F 7°F

74 72

6°F

70

5°F

68

4°F

66

3°F

64

2°F

62

1°F

60

0

2010

2050

2100

Average Daily High Temperature Warmer than Historical Average

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) adopted a set of emissions scenarios known as ‘representative concentration pathways’, or RCPs. These are a set of four future pathways, named for the associated radiative forcing (the globally veraged heat trapping capacity of the atmosphere measured in watts/square meter) level in 2100 relative to pre-industrial values: RCP 8.5, 6.0, 4.5 and 2.6 . RCP 8.5 is consistent with a future in which there are no significant global efforts to limit or reduce emissions. RCP 2.6 is a stringent emissions reduction scenario and assumes that global greenhouse gas emissions will be significantly curtailed. Under this scenario, global CO2 emissions decline by about 70% between 2015 and 2050, to zero by 2080, and below zero thereafter.

Mt CO2 eq

40

10

Temperature Warmer

50

H++ RCP 8.5 RCP 2.6 RCP Historiacal Current

Sea-level rise (ft)

Projected average rates (mm/year)

INCREASING TEMPERATURE- SEA LEVEL RISE

SEA LEVEL RISE THREATEN THE CALIFORNIANS

35

30m High

1m

Sea Level

Medium

Social Vulnerability These ice sheets will soon become the primary contributor to global sea-level rise, overtaking the contributions from ocean thermal expansion and melting mountain glaciers and ice caps. Ice loss from Antarctca, and especially from West Antarctica, causes higher sea-level rise in California than the global average: for example, if the loss of West Antarctic ice were to cause global sea-level to rise by 1 foot, the associated sea-level rise in California would be about 1.25 feet.

EXTREME CLIMATE IN 2150

EXtreme Weather ‘Whiplash’

Del Norte 2,600

Dry Increasing acreage burned by wildfire is associated with increasing air temperatures. One Fourth Assessment model suggests large wildfires (greater than 25,000 acres) could become 50% more frequent by the end of century if emissions are not reduced. The model produces more years with extremely high areas burned, even compared to the historically destructive wildfires of 2017 and 2018.

Humboldt 7,800

Heat-Health Events (HHEs), which predict heat risk to local vulnerable populations, will worsen drastically throughout the state by mid-century. The Central Valley is projected to experience average HHEs that are up to two weeks long, and HHEs could occur four to ten times more often in the North Sierra region.

Sonoma 1,200 Napa

Wet

1,500 Marin

If greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated, key glaciological processes could cross thresholds that lead to rapidly accelerating and effectively irreversible ice loss. Aggressive reductions in greenhouse gas emissions may substantially reduce but do not eliminate the risk to California of extreme sea-level rise from Antarctic ice loss. Moreover, current observations of Antarctic melt rates cannot rule out the potential for extreme sealevel rise in the future, because the processes that could drive extreme Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat later in the century are different from the processes driving loss now.

39,000

36

San Francisco 10,000 San Mateo

Climate models and basic physics suggest that atmospheric rivers will become moister and more intense in the future, as a warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor (about 4% more for every degree 1°F of warming). The UCLA study also found that over the next 40 years, the state will be 300 to 400 percent more likely to have a prolonged storm sequence as severe as the one that caused a now-legendary California flood more than 150 years ago.

110,000 San Cruz 16,000

Monterey 14,000

10ft sea level rise threaten areas sea level rise threaten areas 75-100+ hectares area burned by wildfire

Santa Barbara 6,700

50-75 hectares area burned by wildfire 40-60 social vulnerability composite score 60-80 social vulnerability composite score 80-100 social vulnerability composite score 2pt flood zones

Ventura 16,000 Los Angeles 14,000 Orange 110,000

vulnerable population 1,000 vulnerable population 10,000 vulnerable population 100,000

San Diego 9,300

UNPACKING DROUGHT AND DELUGE

Projections of Flood Areas

Projections ofLands in Flood

100-year Flood

Agriculture

500-year Flood

Natural Vegetation Developed Wetland

37

Projections of Wildfire

1961-1990

2035-2064 0-25 hectares

25-50 hectares

2070-2100 50-75 hectares

75-100 hectares

100+ hectares

Areas burned by wildfires from current time (modeled as 1961-1990), for mid-century (2035-2064), and for latecentury (2070-2100). By the end of the century, California could experience wildfires that burn up to a maximum of 178% more acres per year than current averages.

38

“LET’S GO

O BOATING.”

39

MIGRATION PROJECTION IN 2150

California’s biggest migration deficits had a Western flair.

The No. 1 state for net outmigration was Arizona, which added 32,326 more Californians that who departed for the Golden State. No. 2 was Oregon, 29,561 more Californians in than losses to the Golden State.

Next in the rankings came moves between Nevada, with California outmigration of 23,745; Texas (22,175); Washington (19,341); and Idaho (15,746).

Comparing with the best weather that most people feel, it could project what state that the californians will depart to. Texas,Arizona,Florida, as well as the other countries might be the best choices for climate change refuges.

50109 Washington 21372

20548

5626 47513

16046

Idaho

Oregon

23768

17020

9925

Illinois

27014 25038

Nevada

59233

40

10995

13523

North Carolina

30919 24611 Texas Florida

InFlow OutFlow

New Jersey

22469

Arizona

Good Weather

New York 12906 7968

40999

Better Weather

34278 24982

Pennsylvania

63174

26907

Best Weather

16141

21162 14509 Virginia

Colorado

Utah

27117

41

WE GO WITH THE STREAM.

2083-2 Govern think a to prom agricu

2060-2070 Government forbid to over farm in central valley.

2043-2059 Decrese of irragation land causes lack of agricultural occupations.

2020-2050 New harvesting and agricultual production machines are innovated.

2080 2072-2078 The year lacks of rain.

Increasing house price makes more people leave central valley.

2040 Continuous rain days provide sufficient humidity for agriculture.

2030 al Valley agriculture arned lots of profit to t more investment.

2095 Most comfortable seasons for production practice in those several decades.

42

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2

2105 nment starts to about new way mote new ulture.

2113-2124 Machine starts to replace labors in a larger range.

n

2100

2140-2150 Government invites more immigrant merchants to build the agricultural fields.

2110 High temperature through the year.

2110

2120

2135 Plentiful snow provides suitable field for seeding.

2130

2140

2150

GOLDEN COINS

2113-2124 New agricultural modes is created.

43

44

GABRIELA’S STORY

Gabriela GarcĂ­a Rodriguez

Dallas, TX

2020-now

Gabriela left to Seattle since the housing price is rising rapidly those years. In seattle, she got more different directions in her career.

2014 - 2018

Since 2014, Gabriela started to get into the United States to learn music. She got a lot of chances to enrich her music career.

San Francisco, CA

1990- 2013 Gabriela was born in La Habana, Cuba. She started to learn music since 10 years old. She dreamed of to become a famous musician when she grows up.

La Habana, Cuba

Los Angeles, CA

45

2018-2020

Gabriela moved to Los Angeles to search for more musical opportunities. And she had access to more experience to be a producer.

OVER $200K

$140 TO $200K

$110 TO $140K

$90K TO $110K

$70K TO $90K

$55K TO $70K

$40K TO $50K

$30K TO $40K

$15K TO $30K

UNDER $15K

HIGH INCOME ACCUMULATION

ALABAMA ALASKA ARIZONA ARKANASAS COLORADO CONNECTICUT DELAWARE D.C. FLORIDA GEORGIA HAWAII IDAHO ILLINOIS INDIANA IOWA

46

KANSAS KENTUCKY LOUISIANA MAINE MARYLAND MASSSACHUSETTS MICHIGAN MISSISSIPPI MISSOURI MINNESOTA MONTANA NEBRASKA NEVADA NEW HAMPSHIRE NEW JERSEY NEW MEXICO NEW YORK NORTH CAROLINA NORTH DAKOTA OHIO OKLAHOMA OREGON PENNSYLVANIA RHODE ISLAND SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTH DAKOTA TENNESSEE TEXAS UTAH VERMONT VIRGINIA WASHINGTON WEST VIRGINIA WISCONSIN WYOMING

-48500

0

23000

GRADUATE DEGREE

BACHELOR’S DEGREE

ASSOCIATE’S DEGREE

SOME COLLEGE

HIGH SCHOOL GRAD

SOME HIGH SCHOOL

NO HIGH SCHOOL

LOWER-EDUCATION OURFLOW

ALABAMA ALASKA ARIZONA ARKANASAS COLORADO CONNECTICUT DELAWARE D.C. FLORIDA GEORGIA HAWAII IDAHO ILLINOIS INDIANA IOWA KANSAS KENTUCKY LOUISIANA MAINE MARYLAND MASSSACHUSETTS MICHIGAN MISSISSIPPI MISSOURI MINNESOTA MONTANA NEBRASKA NEVADA NEW HAMPSHIRE NEW JERSEY NEW MEXICO NEW YORK NORTH CAROLINA NORTH DAKOTA OHIO OKLAHOMA OREGON PENNSYLVANIA RHODE ISLAND SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTH DAKOTA

47

TENNESSEE TEXAS UTAH VERMONT VIRGINIA WASHINGTON WEST VIRGINIA WISCONSIN WYOMING

-53000

0

26000

6

3.2

9

3.3

9

-0.

3.6

3

3.1

1.8

0.7

0.4

0

5.1

5.7

6.3

6.6

8.4

7.6

7.2

6.8

6.5

0

SLOW POPULATION GROWTH

5.7

8.7

6.6

8.8

5.

3

4 8.

8.8

8.7 9 9.6

20 20 03 20 02 20 01 199 00 199 9 199 8 7 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 4 198 3 198 2 198 81 19 80 19 79 19 78 19

10

10.6 11.3

11.9 12.8

13 12.8 11.4

10.7 10.4

10.4 9.6

9.6

BIRTH DATA NATURE CHANGE ( PER 1000)

2.4 1.7

1.2 1.7

1.2 1.2 2.1

3.9 4

4.6 6

8.8

9.7

9.7 12

14

7.7 13

.6

12.4

10.9

9.6

9.4

9.1

9.4

9.7

3

9

7

.8

.4

15

6.2

.1

14 14 .7

15 8

15.2

15

14.9

14

13.3

15.1

16.1

15.

15.

6.2

.9

15

6.8

8.2

3.1

8

8.8

2.8

7

9.2

4.9

23 19 24 19 25 19 26 19 27 19 8 192 9 192 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 194 194 2 194 3 19 5 19 46 1 47 19 948 49

19 19 77 19 76 19 75 19 74 197 73 197 2 197 1 0 1969 1968 1967 1966 1965 1964

9.8

5.9

3.3

50 19 951 1 52 19 53 19 54 19 55 19 6 195 7 195 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963

9.5

6.6

4.4

7.

48

6.1

1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 191 191 5 191 6 19 7 19 18 1 19 19 920 19 21 22

2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 1 201 0 201 9 200 08 20 07 20 06 20 05 20 004 2

8.6

8.4

8.6

From 2006 until 2016, the state lost a net population of about 1 million people from domestic emigration; the plurality of whom moved to Texas, yet the population of the state continued to grow due to immigration from overseas.

.1

14

.1

CENTRAL VALLEY IS GROWING

PLUMAS

SIERRA

NEVADA

PLACER AMADOR

LAKE

EL DORADO ALPINES

CALAVERAS MARIPOSA

49

MADERA

SAN BENITO

SAN BERNADINO

RIVERSIDE

1970 2010

POPULATION RATIO BETWEEN 1970 AND 2010 GROWTH RATEBELOW STATE AVERAGE GROWTH RATE ABOVE STATE AVERAGE

INCOME AND HOUSING PRICE

INCOME BY LOCATION $40.7k

$46.9k

$52.9k

$60.7k

$68.5k

$75.4k

$87.7k

$101.1k

MEDIAN SALES PRICE FOR HOMES

Under$150k $200k-300k $400k-500k $600k-700k $800k-900k $150k-200k $300k-400k $500k-600k $700k-800k $900k-1000k

50

POPULATION SHRINKING

POPULATION DISTRIBUTION

CHNAGE IN POPULATION

Less than 100,000

Less than 0

100,000 to 499,999

0 to 0.9

500,000 to 3 million

More than 1.0

More than 3 million

51

NET IMMIGRATION

NET DOMESTIC MIGRATION

Less than 1,000

Less than -10,000

1,000 to 15,000

-11,001 to -10,000

More than 15,000

0 to -1,000 0 to 1,000 More than 1,000

52

“IT’S OUR DIN

NNER TONIGHT.”

53

MIGRATING WESTWARD

MONTANA

WASHINGTON NEW YORK ILLINOIS NEW JERSEY MICHIGAN FLORIDA ALASKA PENNSYLVANIA CONNECTICUT MARYLAND WISCONSIN MINNESOTA HAWAII ALABAMA DELAWARE OHIO D.C.

OREGON

UTAH MAINE NORTH DAKOTA WEST VIRGINIA MASSACHUSETTS VERMONT RHODE ISLAND NEW HAMPSHIRE LOUISIANA MISSISSIPPI MISSOURI INDIANA WYOMING SOUTH DAKOTA KENTUCKY NEW MEXICO NEBRASKA ARKANSAS IOWA SOUTH CAROLINA MONTANA KANSAS VIRGINIA TENNESSEE NORTH CAROLINA GEORGIA OKLAHOMA IDAHO UTAH WASHINGTON OREGON NEVADA ARIZONA

54

100,000

IDAHO

0

100,000

200,000

COLORADO VIRGINIA

NEVADA

KANSAS NORTH CAROLINA TENNESSEE OKLAHOMA GEORGIA

TEXAS ARIZONA

TEXAS -300,000

Although California generally has been losing residents to the rest of the country, movement between California and some states deviates from this pattern. The figure below shows net migration between California and individual states between 2007 and 2016.

California gained, on net, residents from about one-third of states, led by New York, Illinois, and New Jersey. On the flip side, top destinations for those leaving California were Texas, Arizona, Nevada, and Oregon.

55

SLAVE OF GOLD.

CITATION

1 Climate Change Refuges Brandon Miller：Climate change could leave Californians with 'weather whiplash' https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/23/us/climate-change-california-whiplash-wxc/index.html 2 Increasing temperature-public health Kristin Ralff Douglas：California in 2050: Some Sizzling Predictions http://www.cpuc.ca.gov/uploadedFiles/CPUC_Public_Website/Content/About_Us/ Organization/Divisions/Policy_and_Planning/PPD_Work_Products_(2014_forward)(1)/CaFutureUnderClimateChange.pdf 3 Increasing temperature-sea level OPC-SAT： Rising Seas in California： AN UPDATE ON SEA-LEVEL RISE SCIENCE http://www.opc.ca.gov/webmaster/ftp/pdf/docs/rising-seas-in-california-an-update-on-sea-level-rise-science.pdf 4 Sea level rise threaten the Californians S urging Seas: Risk Zone Map https://ss2.climatecentral.org/#12/40.7297/-74.0070?show=satellite&projections=0-K14_RCP85-SLR&level=5&unit=feet&pois=hide 5 Extreme Climate in 2150 ic-coast California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment：California's Changing Climate 2018 http://www.climateassessment.ca.gov/state/docs/20180827-SummaryBrochure.pdf FEMA Flood Map Service Center https://msc.fema.gov/portal/search?AddressQuery=Sacramento#searchresultsanchor USGS Map service: Coastal Vulnerability to Sea-Level Ris https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/usgs-map-service-coastal-vulnerability-to-sea-level-rise https://www.energy.ca.gov/2012publications/CEC-500-2012-013/CEC- 500-2012-013.pdf 56

6 Unpacking drought and deluge California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment：California's Changing Climate 2018 http://www.climateassessment.ca.gov/state/docs/20180827-SummaryBrochure.pdf Kirk Klausmeyer, Megan Webb：California's Flood Risk: Green Solutions for an Uncertain Future green-solutions Migration projection in 2150 Liz Osborn：Top 10 US States With the Best Weather All Year Round https://www.currentresults.com/Weather/top-10-us-states-with-best-weather.php Jonathan Lansnerc：California migration: What states got the most who left? Who moved here? https://www.ocregister.com/2018/12/05/mapped-where-docalifornians-move-to-what-states-do-they-come-from/ 7 Changing California Demographic Structure Public Policy Institute of California, California's Future in Population https://www.ppic.org/publication/californias-future-population/ Public Policy Institute of California, California's Future in Economy https://www.ppic.org/publication/californias-future-economy/ 8 Aging California Public Policy Institute of California, California's Future in Population https://www.ppic.org/publication/californias-future-population/ 9 Shortage of Irrigation Public Policy Institute of California, California's Future in Climate Change https://www.ppic.org/publication/californias-future-climate-change/ Nature Research, Projecting groundwater storage changes in California’s Central Vall https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-31210-1 The Groundwater Foundation, What is Groundwater? https://www.groundwater.org/get-informed/basics/groundwater.html U.S. Climate Data, Monthly Climate Data in California https://www.usclimatedata.com/climate/fresno/california/united-states/usca2234/2014/12 10 Subsidence Tendency Colorado Geological Survey, Ground Subsidence http://coloradogeologicalsurvey.org/geologic-hazards/ground-subsidence/ Subsidence Decrease Farming Sustainability California Department of Water Resource, ,Natural Communities Commonly Associated with Groundwater (NCCAG) Dataset Viewer https://gis.water.ca.gov/app/NCDatasetViewer/ California Department of Water Resource, Water Management Planning Tool https://gis.water.ca.gov/app/boundaries/ California Department of Water Resource, SGMA Data Viewer https://sgma.water.ca.gov/webgis/?appid=SGMADataViewer

USGS, Conjunctive Use in Response to Potential Climate Changes in the Central Valley, California https://ca.water.usgs.gov/projects/central-valley/climate.html 11 Unpacking Subsidence California Department of Water Resource, ,Natural Communities Commonly Associated with Groundwater (NCCAG) Dataset Viewer https://gis.water. ca.gov/app/NCDatasetViewer/ USGS, Central Valley: Drought Indicators https://ca.water.usgs.gov/land_subsidence/central-valley-subsidence-data.html 12 Migration Pattern Public Policy Institute of California, California's Future in Health Care https://www.ppic.org/publication/californias-future-health-care/ California's Department of Aging, Data & Statistics - Facts About California's Elderly https://www.aging.ca.gov/data_and_statistics/facts_about_elderly/ 13 Golden Coins Timeline San Joaquin Valley Demographic Forecasts Final%2027%20Mar%202012_0.pdf 13 High income accumulation California Losing Residents Via Domestic Migration https://lao.ca.gov/laoecontax/article/detail/265 California Losing Residents Via Domestic Migration https://lao.ca.gov/laoecontax/article/detail/265 15 Slow population growth Demographics of California https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_California#Population 16 Central Valley is growing GeoCurrents Maps of the USA: Regions of California: Central Valley http://www.geocurrents.info/gc-maps/geocurrents-maps-by-country/geocurrentsmaps-of-the-usa 17 Population shrinking "California’s senior population is growing faster than any other age group. How the next governor responds is crucial

By MELANIE MASON, Graphics by ELLIS SIMANI and PRIYA KRISHNAKUMAR" https://www.latimes.com/projects/la-pol-ca-next-california-demographics/ 18 Migration Westward Data USA: California 19 History Time Line In a State of Migration, A Brief History of Californian Migration https://medium.com/migration-issues/a-brief-history-of-californian-migration-7fe7653ca0d Digital Schlarship in University of Richmond, Foreign -Born Population1850-2010 http://dsl.richmond.edu/panorama/foreignborn/#decade=2010 Fresno demographic

https://www.census.gov/data.html

57

FULL PINUP VERSION

1861.12-1862.1

1881

The Great Flood: 30,000 years flood event.

1848

Gold Rush of California caused people to migrate west for a better life.

Californians use Chinese immigrants as part of the work force.

Wildfire

Flood

1856

Iron and Steel

1863-64 Drought

1850

1860

30 20 10

The Stock Market crash leads to the Great Depression.

1883

Ellis Island Immigrarion Station opens.

1910

California flood

1885

Page Law bars entry of Chinese and Japanese, and “Mongolian� contract laborers.

California’s longest droughts ever

The Immigration Act of 1990 increases the number of immigrants allowed into the United States each year to 700,000.

1995

Crescenta Valley flood

California flood

1955

1938

1986

California flood

The Immigration Reform and Control Act gives amnesty to approximately three million undocumented residents and provides punishments for employers who hire undocumented workers.

1948

The Displaced Persons Act permits Europeans displaced by the war.

1944 DDT

1997

Northern California flood

1998

1964

Kern County of Central Valley

Los Angeles Flood

California flood

Green Revolution

1952

Santa Ana flood

Fuel and Power

Alien Contract Labor Law prohibits any company or individual from bringing foreigners into the United States

California and Western Nevada floods

1944-60

California flood

1937

1890 1875

1986-1992

1986

Drought: the State Water Project

1950

1933.12-1934.1

Angel Island Immigrarion Station is put into operation near to San Francisco

1909

1950s

Drought: The Central Valley Project

1892 1882

Immigration and Nationality Act abolishes the national orgins quota system.

1939-1945

World War II begins in Europe and Asia.

1929-1934

Electric

Chinese Exclusion Act bars the entry of all Chinese

The first Japanese laborers arrive in Hawaii seeking a new way of life. Some of them migration to Southern California.

1965

1929 1914-1918

World War I: U.S.involvement 1917-1918

Steam Engines

1868

1850

1990

Millions of European immigrants looking for better living conditions.

1880s

1861

American Civil War begins with Confederates firing on Union Soldiers. Immigration decreases during the American Civil War.

1849

The American Competitiveness and Work force Improvement Act increases the number of skilled temporary foreign workers U.S

2000

Genetically modified plants

2007-2009

the worst wildfires in California history

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

30,579

38,508

44,776

45,144

60,672

80,387

83,656

88,957

95,807

398,585

123,350

251,610

495,679

776,984

1023,086

East Asia South Asia

COUNTRY AMOUNT

West Asia North America Europe

SOCIAL EVENTS

Latin America Oceania ECOLOGICAL EVENTS

7,632

2039-2045 2045-2049

Irrigation system in San Joaquin Valley breaks down because of ground angle changing

California’s Dry Period

More than 300 new wells are annually dug.

Depth of of drilling drilling well well Depth achieves 2000ft 2000ft achieves

2108

2078

Central Valley Flooding

Central Valley Flooding

2124

2137

Central Valley Flooding

Central Valley Flooding

10,296 2,033 1,100

2,095

North America

16,296

346

Europe

Latin AmericaOthers

TILL 1890S - THE ODD POST-WAR PERIOD

Asia

45,144

North America

Europe

Latin America Others

North America

2020

Southeast Latin Asia America

Europe

87,384

West Asia

Others

1900S ~ 1970S - CALIFORNIA’S GOLDEN AGE

North Asia America

495,697

Southeast Asia

Europe

Latin America

West Asia

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2110

2120

2130

2140

2150

Others

1990S ~ PRESENT - CALIFORNIA’S DARK AGE

A BRIEF HISTORY OF CALIFORNIAN MIGRATION

TILL 1890S - THE ODD POST-WAR PERIOD

1900S ~ 1970S - CALIFORNIA’S GOLDEN AGE

2093

1990S ~ PRESENT - CALIFORNIA’S DARK AGE

Redisgn Leeves

2089

The Other Big One Flood

2064

Extreme Heat

Despite California’s pleasant climate, rich soils, growing economy, and its newly-forged transcontinental rail-link, net migration

This period was the best migration years anywhere ever had. California received essentially 70 years of constant positive net migration, with a brief interlude during the post-WWII demobilization. Oil, movies, growing west-coast manufacturing, urbanization, military and naval

The decline of the textile industry since the 1990s, cutbacks and geographic reshuffling in the defense and aerospace industries,

was more-or-less flat through the 1860s, 1870s, and 1880s, then dropped off sharply during the economically tumultuous 1890s.

investments, growing trans-pacific trade, and agriculture were the key drivers of growth until the 1930s. And then California’s migratory success from the 1930s to the 1960s was as much a product of Federal favor as local competitiveness

and the ever-increasing burden of local regulations, price inflation, and taxation have made California relatively uncompetitive

Sea level Rise

Irrigarion Technology

2090

Extreme Wildfire

Ecourage Immigrantion

Extreme Heat

2118

2130

2150

New Agriculture mode

Extreme Flood

Extreme Heat

Extreme Drought

2107 Refrigeration Technique

Reinforce Leeves

Extreme Storm

2100

Sea level Rise

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2110

2120

2130

2140

2150

Scenarios should become brief narratives that link historical and present events with hypothetical future events. Within these storylines the internal assumptions of the scenario and the differences between stories must be clearly visible. To be plausible, each scenario should be clearly anchered in the past, with the future emerging from the past and present in a seamless way... Whatever approach is taken, each story should track the key indicator variable ways that have been selected based on the initial question... Successful scenarios are vivid and different, can be told easily, and plausibly capture future transformation. (Peterson et al, 2002)

The immigration history of the United States is linked to both man-made and natural events and situations around the world. Ecological events, economics and social unrest - those externalities FDQ DOO LQà XHQFH ZKR ZK\ DQG ZKHQ SHRSOH KDYH FRPH WR WKLV FRXQWU\ 8 6 ,PPLJUDWLRQ SROLFLHV UHà HFW WKLV FRXQWU\¡V HPRWLRQDO DQG SROLWLFDO FOLPDWH LQ UHDFWLRQ WR RU LQ DQWLFLSDWLRQ RI WKHVH events and occurrences.

6WUXJJOLQJ KHVLWDWLQJ VKDULQJ SURGXFLQJ WKH\ DUH WKH œPDMRULW\ PLQLRULW\¡ WKHLU YRLFH PDWters, they are not the others. :KDW LV WKHLU VWRU\ DIWHU DFFRPSOLVKLQJ WKH DFWLRQ RI œLPPLJUDWLQJ¡" :KDW ZLOO EH WKH QHZ H[WHUQDOLWLHV WKDW WULJHU DQRWKHU YHUVLRQ RI PRYHPHQW" :KDW DUH WKH IRUFHV WKDW ZLOO GULYH WKHP WR FRPSOLVK WKH WUDQVLWLRQ IURP LPPLJUDWLQJ WR PLJUDWLQJ" They are wandering, and they are rooted.

)RU LPPLJUDWLRQV¡V IXWXUH LQ &HQWUDO 9DOOH\ ZH SURSRVHV WKUHH VFHQDULRV IURP HFRORJLFDO HFRQRPLF DQG VRFLDO OHQV :KDW ZLOO KDSSHQ LI &HQWUDO 9DOOH\ LV GRPLQDWHG E\ FDWDO\VW HYHQWV" +RZ WKH ZRUN VWUXFWXUH PLJKW FKDQJH LQ DQ DJLQJ VRFLHW\" :KHUH WR VHWWOH LI KRXVLQJ LV QR ORQJHU DIIRUGDEOH" ,W GRHVQ¡W PHDQ WKDW ZH¡YH DOUHDG\ VHWWHG XS VWDJHV DQG VFULSWV IRU WKH œDFWRUV¡ LQVWHDG ZH WU\ WR FKDVH DQG WUDFH WKHLU IRRWSULQWV EDVHG RQ &HQWUDO 9DOOH\ DQG &DOLIRUQLD¡V XQLTXH FRQWH[W 7KH IXWXUH LV VWLOO KD]\ DQG WKH RQO\ WKLQJ ZH FDQ GR LV WR PRYH IRUZDUG JURSLQJO\

30%

85%

Indian

35%

Latin American

140,000 5.8%

5.5%

120,000

100,000 Asia Has Surprasses Latin America as the Leading Source of New Immigrants

Asian

80,000

60,000

2021 - 2025

Within the rapid development and competition in weel drilling industry, Juan went to Leite Pump and Water Well Inc and becomes a skilled worker.

40,000 6

Others4

San Joaquin, CA

Nine Years of Job Growth Add up to One of the Longest Expansion in Recent History.

0

0

1990 -2

2000

2020

2030

California

-6

Kings, CA

-8

1995 - 2013

2025 -

Juan was born in Mexico in May, 1995 in Ă lvaro ObregĂłn. After completing his education in Edron Academy (El Colegio BritĂĄnico) High School in 2012, he was a school shuttle driver for one and a half years.

Since 2025, Juan is a Left Driver in Los Angeles.

Los Angeles, CA

Ă lvaro ObregĂłn, CDMX, Mexico

White

Latino

Asian

American Indian

Two or more races

30

20

10

No High School Diploma

High School Graduate

Some Collage

Associate Degree

Bachelor’s Degree or More

Days exceeding 106.6°F per year

15 12

60

9

Austin, TX

6 3 0

1960-1980 50

50

40 30

2100

20

He dreamed live to New Zealand to realize his dream of being a movie fan of The Hobbit.

10 0

1980-2000

Wellington, New Zealand

40

60 50 40

30

30 20 10 0

2000-2020

20

1995-2039

100

Nguyen’s grandparents and his parents worked on a corn farm land. Then Nguyen was born in Summer of the 2039,when an extreme drought happened.

80 60

Sacramento, CA

10

40

2040-2065

20

Nguyen’s family decided to move to San Francisco and he got his Bachelor of Engineering.

0

San Francisco, CA

1960

Fresno, CA

2065-2089 Ho Chi Ming City, Vietnam

Nguyen’s grandparents immigrated to the States, when many re-education-camp inmates were released and sponsored by their families in the US. 1992

5.1

4.1 1.9

2020-2040

2000

1980

2020

Observed Data(1950-2013) Model Projections (2006-2100)

He migrated to Fresno due to the threatening of sea level rise and got a job in energy industry.

Austin, TX

Fresno Could Expe

Nguyen suffered the Other Big One Flood and moved to the Austin.

2089-2100

100

2095 Most comfortable seasons for production practice in those several decades.

2140-2150 Government invites more immigrant merchants to build the agricultural fields.

2113-2124 Machine starts to replace labors in a larger range.

2135 Plentiful snow provides suitable field for seeding.

0

500

2020

1000

1500

2000

2500

South Asia

NorthAmerica 3000

Europe South America

Oceania Africa Europe

3500

Asia Latin FROM OTHER CONTINENTS

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2110

2120

2130

2140

2150

Gabriela GarcĂ­a Rodriguez

Dallas, TX

2020-now

Gabriela left to Seattle since the housing price is rising rapidly those years. In seattle, she got more different directions in her career.

2014 - 2018

Since 2014, Gabriela started to get into the United States to learn music. She got a lot of chances to enrich her music career.

San Francisco, CA

1990- 2013 Gabriela was born in La Habana, Cuba. She started to learn music since 10 years old. She dreamed of to become a famous musician when she grows up.

La Habana, Cuba

Los Angeles, CA

2018-2020

Gabriela moved to Los Angeles to search for more musical opportunities. And she had access to more experience to be a producer.

$140 TO $200K

OVER $200K

$40K TO $50K

$90K TO $110K

$110 TO $140K

$30K TO $40K

$55K TO $70K

$70K TO $90K

2113-2124 New agricultural modes is created.

2110 High temperature through the year.

2080 2072-2078 The year lacks of rain.

Increasing house price makes more people leave central valley.

2040 Continuous rain days provide sufficient humidity for agriculture.

2010-2030 Central Valley agriculture has earned lots of profit to attract more investment.

0

2083-2105 Government starts to think about new way to promote new agriculture.

2060-2070 Government forbid to over farm in central valley.

2043-2059 Decrese of irragation land causes lack of agricultural occupations.

2020-2050 New harvesting and agricultual production machines are innovated.

200

East Asia

HIGH INCOME ACCUMULATION

South West

400 300

0

By 2030, California May Have a Shortage of Highly Educated Workers.

INCREASING TEMPERATURE- PUBLIC HEALTH

Vo Nguyen Lien

GABRIELA’S STORY

Midwest

500

40

33.0

In the future, Natural incfrease and international migration account for all of California’s growth, and inland areas are growing at higher rates though most residents still live along the coast.

While Latinos have replaced whites as the largest ethnic group, immigration from Latin America has slowed. Meanwhile, immigration from Asia has increased, and many of them have veen highly educated, which will bereally in urgent need of by the California society.

Immmigration demographic structure is gradually changing.

NGUYEN’S STORY

Aferican

38.4

UNDER $15K

700 600

2040

World

-4

Fresno, CA

2010

FROM OTHER STATES Northeast

20,000

2

Then he moved to Central Valley, where located dense agriculture related industry. Juan worked in Fresno and Kings as farming labor till 2020.

$15K TO $30K

800

Have Least a Bachelor’s Degree

California Born

Tehama, CA

FRESNO IMMIGRANTS POPULATION DISTRIBUTION

RESTAURANTS IN FRESNO

GOLDEN COINS

HUIRU SHEN| XIAOWEI LIN | YAO TONG

New Engergy Plant

is fairly wild swings between apparently cataclysmic budget shortfalls, to suddenly almost excessive budget surpluses.

,¡P LPPLJUDWLRQ DQG ,¡P PLJUDWLQJ We are wandering, and we are rooted.

2140

2120-2125 2124

2106

2069

the fastest-rising income inequality in the nation. At the same time high income people have volatile incomes as well. The result

LAR 7020 FOUNDATION STUDIO | PROTOTYPING THE TERRITORY MODULE I | UNPACKING THE VALLEY

2090-2120

Encourage develope other Industry

2065

2046

Extreme Drought

New Energy Technology

Promote Effective plans,programs and policies and intergrate actions

Drilling Technology

versus other states. With the decline of much of California s manufacturing sector, the middle class, and especially the lower end of it, has begun to hollow out, hence why California has among

IM MIGRATION

2135 2069-2100

2045

2039

60%

Aisan

Latin American 2014 - 2020

Since 2014, Juan decided to go to U.S. to seek for better job oppotunities with higher salary. At first, he arrived Tehama in California to see if his friends who are working there can help him start his exploration on this unfamiliar land.

Share of All Workers (%)

Asia

38,508

3,695

Immigrants From Asia Tend to be Highly Educated.

Latinos Have Replaced Whites As the Largest Ethnic Group in California.

Los Angleles, CA 12.8%

2105

Taxes are raised again for social pension funds

2099 2099

CHANING IMMIGRATION DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE

Juan Manual

14.7%

2108

2066-2073

2050s

California’s California’s Dry Period Wet Period

11,950

12,123

Ground level keeps decreasing

JUAN’S STORY

41.5%

40,348

6,958

22,064

15,150

Large farming acerage in Central Valley has subsided more than 30ft

California’s Wet Period

35.8%

2,852

16,238

2145

California’s elderly population achieves 55 millions

2120s

2096-2109

39.1%

132,486 1,362

California’s California’s achieves achieves population population 70 millions millions 70

California’s elderly population achieves 30 millions

2060s

California’s Dry Period

Till 2150 Farming production efficiency has double compared with 2010

Both economical and political agencies contribute to release aging society situation

2095 2095

2080

California’s population achieves 55 millions

2049-2054

2020

California’s population achieves 42 millions

223,842

Since 2080s

Well Drilling Technology Highly Developed

2060

Since 2020

Asia has surpassed Latin America as California’s leading source of new immigrants

1990s

37.0%

1940s

5.3% 7.6%

1900s

19.3%

Since 2040s

2051

Immigration Organization fights for equal education oppotunities

2030

California’s elderly population achieves 15millions

1880s

66.8%

IMMIGRATION COMPOSITION EVOLUTION

CLIMATE CHANGE REFUGES

100,000 10,000 1,000

MIGRATION URBANIZATION MIGRATION

Other

TECHNOLOGICAL EVENTS

ALABAMA ALASKA ARIZONA ARKANASAS COLORADO CONNECTICUT DELAWARE D.C. FLORIDA GEORGIA HAWAII IDAHO ILLINOIS INDIANA IOWA KANSAS KENTUCKY LOUISIANA MAINE MARYLAND MASSSACHUSETTS MICHIGAN MISSISSIPPI MISSOURI MINNESOTA MONTANA NEBRASKA NEVADA NEW HAMPSHIRE NEW JERSEY NEW MEXICO NEW YORK NORTH CAROLINA NORTH DAKOTA OHIO OKLAHOMA OREGON PENNSYLVANIA RHODE ISLAND SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTH DAKOTA TENNESSEE TEXAS UTAH VERMONT VIRGINIA WASHINGTON WEST VIRGINIA WISCONSIN WYOMING

4000 -48500

0

23000

AGING CALIFORNIA

SHORTAGE OF IRRIGATION

SUBSIDENCE DECREASES FARMING SUSTAINABILITY

SUBSIDENCE TENDENCY

-3

Wet Year

Above Avergae Temperature

Dry Year

Below Avergae Temperature

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

High Moderate Low

Increasingly growing senior population area have more potential working oppotunities.

-2.9 ~ -1.3 -1.3 ~ -0.4

0

1990

Shortage of workers. An ageing population could lead to a shortage of workers and hence push up wages causing wage inflation. Alternatively, firms may have to respond by encouraging more people to enter the workforce, through offering flexible working practices.

Changing sectors within the economy. An increase in the numbers of retired people will create a bigger market for goods and services linked to older people (e.g. retirement homes)

Groundwater Prioritization

-16.0 ~ -10.0 -10.0 ~ -7.5 -7.5 ~ -5.0 -5.0 ~ -2.9

Compaction of the aquifer system, sight unseen, may permanently decrease its capacity to store water. Even if water levels rose, compacted sediments would remain as-is.

Degrees (F°)

Subsidence occurring today is a legacy for all tomorrows.

-0.4 ~ 0.0

1 1,300,000

504,000 251,000

Groundwater Storage (km3)

Effect of Aging Society Elevation Change 2013-2018 (ft)

Effect to Natural System

-1

0

MIGRATING PATTERN

UNPACKING SUBSIDENCE

Effect to Man-made Infrestructure The greatest effects occur to infrastructures that traverse a subsiding area. Many water conveyance structures, including long stretches of the California Aqueduct, are gravity driven through the use of very small gradients; even minor changes in these gradients can cause reductions in designed flow capacity. Managers of the canals have to repeatedly retrofit their canals to keep the water flowing.

-2

10

-10 2

California is Getting Warmer.

4

Precipitation(in) 3.0

700,000

Fresno

Highly Problematic Area

100,000

San Benito

-200,000

2.0

0-4

1.5

Groundwater Highly Supplies the Rural Population in Central Valley and is an important component in Many Industrial Process.

San Joaquin

400,000

2.5

Water Withdrawals Per Day (million gallons)

Urban Area

1,637,000

Domestic

Irrigation 53,500

1,000,000

Change in California Population

by Age Group 2015 - 2030

3

Industrial Public Supply 14,600

1,242,000

Central Valley is Facing a Tendency of Groudnwater Shortage Thermoelectric Mining Aquaculture Livestock

5-9

10 - 14

15 - 19

20 - 24

25 - 29

30 - 34

35 - 39

40 - 44

45 - 49

50 - 54

55 - 59

60 - 64

65 - 69

70 - 47

75 - 79

80 - 84

Potential Problem Area

Subsidence Projection 2010-2099(ft)

Subsidence Contour Change 2008-2010(mm)

1.0

Urbanization Porjection

Monthly Precipitation in Central Valley 2008-2018(in)

0.5 0

4.0

2008

2009

2010

2011

3.0

3.5

-16.0 ~ -10.0

2.5

-10.0 ~ -7.5

2.0

3.0

2013

2014

0

2015

Above Historical

100 ~ 150

Moderate

150 ~ 280

Great

280 ~ 410

Extreme

-0.4 ~ 0.0 3.0

1.0

of Californians were 65 and older, compared with only 9 percent in 1970. By 2030, that share will be 19 percent.

2.0

0 Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Monthly Precipitation

Dec

There is a tendency of precipitation lowering than normal condition.

Surface water can hardly meet overall irrigation need.

2016

2017

The total number of adults 65 and older is projected to grow from 5.5 million in 2017 to 9.1 million in 2030.

1.5

The number of seniors in every major racial/ethnic group will increase by 2030 and no ethnic group will compose

1.0

a majority of the senior population.

0.5

Approximate location of maximum subsidence in the United States identified by Dr. Joseph F. Poland.

San Joaquin Valley southwest of Mendota, California.

California’s population is aging.

0

2018

In the future, Carlifornia is facing a climate condition of getting warmer. Annual precipitation cannot fully supply enough surface water for irrigation, thus groundwater becomes a significant source for farming irrigation.

In this context, high demand for groundwater lowers groudn level amd causes serve subsidence, which directly impeded the development of agriculture.

Meanwhile digging wells also aggravate this issue.

Even though California’s population is the seventh-youngest in the country, it is aging rapidly. In 2017, 14 percent

2.5

Normal Precipitation

Subsidence decreases farming sustainability.

Moderate

EXtreme Weather ‘Whiplash’

Del Norte 2,600

7,800

50 0

2060-2080

50 40

10 8

0.5% 5% 50% 67%

30

6

20

4

10

2

0 1950

2000

8°F 7°F

74

Medium

68 66 64

Marin

2100

2050

16,000

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) adopted a set of emissions scenarios known as ‘representative concentration pathways’, or RCPs. These are a set of four future pathways, named for the associated radiative forcing (the globally veraged heat trapping capacity of the atmosphere measured in watts/square meter) level in 2100 relative to pre-industrial values: RCP 8.5, 6.0, 4.5 and 2.6 . RCP 8.5 is consistent with a future in which there are no significant global efforts to limit or reduce emissions. RCP 2.6 is a stringent emissions reduction scenario and assumes that global greenhouse gas emissions will be significantly curtailed. Under this scenario, global CO2 emissions decline by about 70% between 2015 and 2050, to zero by 2080, and below zero thereafter.

50 2080-2100

2100 111.9-123.8

High

9.2

3.3

3.1

AMADOR

LAKE

EL DORADO

1.7

1.2

MIGRATING WESTWARD

POPULATION SHRINKING

$60.7k

$68.5k

$75.4k

$87.7k

$101.1k

0

0

0.4

0.7

1.8

7.8 7 6.8

1

6.2

ILLINOIS NEW JERSEY MICHIGAN FLORIDA ALASKA PENNSYLVANIA CONNECTICUT MARYLAND WISCONSIN MINNESOTA HAWAII ALABAMA DELAWARE OHIO D.C.

CHNAGE IN POPULATION

Less than 100,000

Less than 0

100,000 to 499,999

0 to 0.9

500,000 to 3 million

More than 1.0

More than 3 million

From 2006 until 2016, the state lost a net population of about 1 million people from domestic emigration; the plurality of whom moved to Texas, yet the population of the state continued to grow due to immigration from overseas.

1,000 to 15,000 More than 15,000

MONTANA

OREGON

NET DOMESTIC MIGRATION Less than -10,000 -11,001 to -10,000 0 to -1,000

2010

More than 1,000

´,7·6 285 ',11(5 721,*+7 µ

1970

POPULATION RATIO BETWEEN 1970 AND 2010 GROWTH RATEBELOW STATE AVERAGE GROWTH RATE ABOVE STATE AVERAGE

100,000

IDAHO

UTAH MAINE NORTH DAKOTA WEST VIRGINIA MASSACHUSETTS VERMONT RHODE ISLAND NEW HAMPSHIRE LOUISIANA MISSISSIPPI MISSOURI INDIANA WYOMING SOUTH DAKOTA KENTUCKY NEW MEXICO NEBRASKA ARKANSAS IOWA SOUTH CAROLINA MONTANA KANSAS VIRGINIA TENNESSEE NORTH CAROLINA GEORGIA OKLAHOMA IDAHO UTAH WASHINGTON OREGON NEVADA ARIZONA

0 to 1,000

RIVERSIDE

6

7

POPULATION DISTRIBUTION $52.9k

Less than 1,000

SAN BERNADINO

1

13.

13.3

14

14.9

15

15.1

15.2

16.1

15.8

15.3

9

$46.9k

NET IMMIGRATION

6 8.8

9.7

9.7

12.9

15.7

9.7

OutFlow

SAN BENITO

15.1

15.4

9.4

InFlow

3.9

4

8

9.1

Good Weather 100+ hectares

MADERA

4.6

14.

9.4

75-100 hectares

MARIPOSA

1.2

14.

9.6

Better Weather

2070-2100 50-75 hectares

CALAVERAS

1.7

2.1

14.

10.9

25-50 hectares

ALPINES

1.2

14

12.4

9,300

Under$150k $200k-300k $400k-500k $600k-700k $800k-900k $150k-200k $300k-400k $500k-600k $700k-800k $900k-1000k

2.4

7.7

6.2

0-25 hectares

Areas burned by wildfires from current time (modeled as 1961-1990), for mid-century (2035-2064), and for latecentury (2070-2100). By the end of the century, California could experience wildfires that burn up to a maximum of 178% more acres per year than current averages.

San Diego

PLACER

2.8

8.2

26000

2035-2064

110,000

SIERRA

NEVADA

4.4

8.8

0

1961-1990

Orange

3.1 3

3.6

3.2

3.3

9.6

14,000

MEDIAN SALES PRICE FOR HOMES

3 192 4 192 5 192 6 192 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1945 194 194 6 194 7 194 8 9

BIRTH DATA NATURE CHANGE ( PER 1000)

197 197 7 197 6 197 5 197 4 1972 3 1971 1970 1969 1968 1967 1966 1965 1964

9.8

Florida Best Weather

Los Angeles

PLUMAS

4.9

0 195 1 195 2 195 3 195 4 195 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963

9.5

WYOMING

vulnerable population 100,000

6.6

9.6

TENNESSEE TEXAS UTAH VERMONT VIRGINIA WASHINGTON WEST VIRGINIA WISCONSIN

Texas

16,000

$40.7k

5.3

10.4

North Carolina

´/(7·6 *2 %2$7,1* µ

Ventura

INCOME AND HOUSING PRICE

5.7

10.4

New York

New Jersey

6,700

vulnerable population 1,000 vulnerable population 10,000

5.9

1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 191 191 8 192 9 192 0 192 1 2

2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 8 200 7 200 6 200 5 200 4 200

10.7

34278 24982

12906

13523

WE GO WITH THE STREAM.

Santa Barbara

80-100 social vulnerability composite score 2pt flood zones

INCOME BY LOCATION

8.4 200 200 3 200 2 200 1 1999 0 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1 198 0 198 9 197 8 197

13

11.4

16141

22469

63174

30919 24611

40-60 social vulnerability composite score

These ice sheets will soon become the primary contributor to global sea-level rise, overtaking the contributions from ocean thermal expansion and melting mountain glaciers and ice caps. Ice loss from Antarctca, and especially from West Antarctica, causes higher sea-level rise in California than the global average: for example, if the loss of West Antarctic ice were to cause global sea-level to rise by 1 foot, the associated sea-level rise in California would be about 1.25 feet.

-0.6

GRADUATE DEGREE

SOME COLLEGE

8.8

ASSOCIATE’S DEGREE

8.7

BACHELOR’S DEGREE

5.7

9

8.7 9 9.6

10.6 11.3 11.9

12.8

10995

Pennsylvania 7968 21162 14509 Virginia

Colorado

Arizona

60-80 social vulnerability composite score

Social Vulnerability

6.6

12.8

27117

Illinois

27014 25038 59233

26907

50-75 hectares area burned by wildfire

Medium

1m

6.1

10

IDAHO ILLINOIS INDIANA IOWA

9925

Utah

NEW YORK

9

8.6 8.4 8.6

8.8

17020

Nevada

WASHINGTON

5.1

8.4

7.6

7.2

6.8

6.5

6.6

6.3

ALABAMA ALASKA ARIZONA ARKANASAS COLORADO CONNECTICUT DELAWARE D.C. FLORIDA GEORGIA HAWAII

75-100+ hectares area burned by wildfire

30m

Sea Level

CENTRAL VALLEY IS GROWING

SLOW POPULATION GROWTH

16046

Idaho 23768

14,000

erience Extreme Heat

KANSAS KENTUCKY LOUISIANA MAINE MARYLAND MASSSACHUSETTS MICHIGAN MISSISSIPPI MISSOURI MINNESOTA MONTANA NEBRASKA NEVADA NEW HAMPSHIRE NEW JERSEY NEW MEXICO NEW YORK NORTH CAROLINA NORTH DAKOTA OHIO OKLAHOMA OREGON PENNSYLVANIA RHODE ISLAND SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTH DAKOTA

5626 47513 Oregon

Projections of Wildfire

Monterey

10ft sea level rise threaten areas sea level rise threaten areas

LOWER-EDUCATION OURFLOW

21372

40999

than Historical Average

200

0

Washington

Climate models and basic physics suggest that atmospheric rivers will become moister and more intense in the future, as a warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor (about 4% more for every degree 1°F of warming). The UCLA study also found that over the next 40 years, the state will be 300 to 400 percent more likely to have a prolonged storm sequence as severe as the one that caused a now-legendary California flood more than 150 years ago.

San Cruz

Average Daily High Temperature Warmer

150 100 Apr

2080 108.0-109.7 109.7-111.9

50109

If greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated, key glaciological processes could cross thresholds that lead to rapidly accelerating and effectively irreversible ice loss. Aggressive reductions in greenhouse gas emissions may substantially reduce but do not eliminate the risk to California of extreme sea-level rise from Antarctic ice loss. Moreover, current observations of Antarctic melt rates cannot rule out the potential for extreme sealevel rise in the future, because the processes that could drive extreme Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat later in the century are different from the processes driving loss now.

San Mateo 110,000

2010

Wetland

Wet

1,500

39,000

San Francisco 10,000

62 60

0

Projections of Sea Level Rise

CITATION California’s biggest migration deficits had a Western flair.

The No. 1 state for net outmigration was Arizona, which added 32,326 more Californians that who departed for the Golden State. No. 2 was Oregon, 29,561 more Californians in than losses to the Golden State.

Next in the rankings came moves between Nevada, with California outmigration of 23,745; Texas (22,175); Washington (19,341); and Idaho (15,746).

Comparing with the best weather that most people feel, it could project what state that the californians will depart to. Texas,Arizona,Florida, as well as the other countries might be the best choices for climate change refuges.

Natural Vegetation

20548 Napa

72 70

5°F 4°F 3°F

1°F

2100

2050

6°F

2°F

0 1900

350 300

NO HIGH SCHOOL

Riverside

Developed

1,200

250 May

13

HIGH SCHOOL GRAD

50 ~ 149.9%

Agriculture

Heat-Health Events (HHEs), which predict heat risk to local vulnerable populations, will worsen drastically throughout the state by mid-century. The Central Valley is projected to experience average HHEs that are up to two weeks long, and HHEs could occur four to ten times more often in the North Sierra region.

Sonoma

moderate rate current rate current emmission scenario emmission

Mt CO2 eq

100

Temperature Warmer

150

Jun

H++ RCP 8.5 RCP 2.6 RCP Historiacal Current

Sea-level rise (ft)

250 200

Jul

Projected average rates (mm/year)

Aug

42.8

27.2

SOME HIGH SCHOOL

150 ~ 199.9%

Projections ofLands in Flood

100-year Flood 500-year Flood

Increasing acreage burned by wildfire is associated with increasing air temperatures. One Fourth Assessment model suggests large wildfires (greater than 25,000 acres) could become 50% more frequent by the end of century if emissions are not reduced. The model produces more years with extremely high areas burned, even compared to the historically destructive wildfires of 2017 and 2018.

Humboldt

50 2040-2060

Projections of Flood Areas

Dry

200

100

Sep

0

-53000

200 ~ 299.9%

50 ~ 99.9% Under 50%

MIGRATION PROJECTION IN 2150

UNPACKING DROUGHT AND DELUGE

150

106.6-108.0

Over 400% 300 ~ 399.9%

100 ~ 149.9%

High

EXTREME CLIMATE IN 2150

SEA LEVEL RISE THREATEN THE CALIFORNIANS

250

Oct

2060

Age 85 and Over

Over 200% 150 ~ 299.9%

Low

54.1

Temperature Range(°F)

$&7,9(" 3$66,9(" San Bernardino

Shortage of Care Providers

Great Extreme

Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec

INCREASING TEMPERATURE- SEA LEVEL RISE

2040

Age 60 and Over

Subsidence Projection 2010-2099

Similar to Historical Above Historical

2060

Percentage Increase of Elderly Population 2010 - 2060

“WATCH OUT DRIVING!”

-1.3 ~ -0.4

1.5

0.5

2020

> 410

-2.9 ~ -1.3

0.5

2012

Similar to Historical

50 ~ 100

-5.0 ~ -2.9

1.0

2.0

25

-7.5 ~ -5.0

1.5

2.5

Surface River Elevation Change 2013-2018 (ft)

0

100,000

200,000

COLORADO VIRGINIA

NEVADA

KANSAS NORTH CAROLINA TENNESSEE OKLAHOMA GEORGIA

TEXAS ARIZONA

TEXAS -300,000

Although California generally has been losing residents to the rest of the country, movement between California and some states deviates from this pattern. The figure below shows net migration between California and individual states between 2007 and 2016.

California gained, on net, residents from about one-third of states, led by New York, Illinois, and New Jersey. On the flip side, top destinations for those leaving California were Texas, Arizona, Nevada, and Oregon.

SLAVE OF GOLD.

1 Climate Change Refuges Brandon Miller：Climate change could leave Californians with 'weather whiplash' https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/23/us/climate-change-california-whiplash-wxc/index.html 2 Increasing temperature-public health Kristin Ralff Douglas：California in 2050: Some Sizzling Predictions http://www.cpuc.ca.gov/uploadedFiles/CPUC_Public_Website/Content/About_Us/ Organization/Divisions/Policy_and_Planning/PPD_Work_Products_(2014_forward)(1)/CaFutureUnderClimateChange.pdf 3 Increasing temperature-sea level OPC-SAT： Rising Seas in California： AN UPDATE ON SEA-LEVEL RISE SCIENCE http://www.opc.ca.gov/webmaster/ftp/pdf/docs/rising-seas-in-california-an-update-on-sea-level-rise-science.pdf 4 Sea level rise threaten the Californians S urging Seas: Risk Zone Map https://ss2.climatecentral.org/#12/40.7297/-74.0070?show=satellite&projections=0-K14_RCP85-SLR&level=5&unit=feet&pois=hide 5 Extreme Climate in 2150 ic-coast California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment：California's Changing Climate 2018 http://www.climateassessment.ca.gov/state/docs/20180827-SummaryBrochure.pdf FEMA Flood Map Service Center https://msc.fema.gov/portal/search?AddressQuery=Sacramento#searchresultsanchor USGS Map service: Coastal Vulnerability to Sea-Level Ris https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/usgs-map-service-coastal-vulnerability-to-sea-level-rise https://www.energy.ca.gov/2012publications/CEC-500-2012-013/CEC500-2012-013.pdf 6 Unpacking drought and deluge California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment：California's Changing Climate 2018 http://www.climateassessment.ca.gov/state/docs/20180827-SummaryBrochure.pdf Kirk Klausmeyer, Megan Webb：California's Flood Risk: Green Solutions for an Uncertain Future green-solutions Migration projection in 2150 Liz Osborn：Top 10 US States With the Best Weather All Year Round https://www.currentresults.com/Weather/top-10-us-states-with-best-weather.php Jonathan Lansnerc：California migration: What states got the most who left? Who moved here? https://www.ocregister.com/2018/12/05/mapped-where-docalifornians-move-to-what-states-do-they-come-from/ 7 Changing California Demographic Structure Public Policy Institute of California, California's Future in Population https://www.ppic.org/publication/californias-future-population/ Public Policy Institute of California, California's Future in Economy https://www.ppic.org/publication/californias-future-economy/ 8 Aging California Public Policy Institute of California, California's Future in Population https://www.ppic.org/publication/californias-future-population/ 9 Shortage of Irrigation Public Policy Institute of California, California's Future in Climate Change https://www.ppic.org/publication/californias-future-climate-change/ Nature Research, Projecting groundwater storage changes in California’s Central Vall https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-31210-1 The Groundwater Foundation, What is Groundwater? https://www.groundwater.org/get-informed/basics/groundwater.html U.S. Climate Data, Monthly Climate Data in California https://www.usclimatedata.com/climate/fresno/california/united-states/usca2234/2014/12 10 Subsidence Tendency Colorado Geological Survey, Ground Subsidence http://coloradogeologicalsurvey.org/geologic-hazards/ground-subsidence/ Subsidence Decrease Farming Sustainability California Department of Water Resource, ,Natural Communities Commonly Associated with Groundwater (NCCAG) Dataset Viewer https://gis.water.ca.gov/app/NCDatasetViewer/ California Department of Water Resource, Water Management Planning Tool https://gis.water.ca.gov/app/boundaries/ California Department of Water Resource, SGMA Data Viewer https://sgma.water.ca.gov/webgis/?appid=SGMADataViewer

USGS, Conjunctive Use in Response to Potential Climate Changes in the Central Valley, California https://ca.water.usgs.gov/projects/central-valley/climate.html 11 Unpacking Subsidence California Department of Water Resource, ,Natural Communities Commonly Associated with Groundwater (NCCAG) Dataset Viewer https://gis.water. ca.gov/app/NCDatasetViewer/ USGS, Central Valley: Drought Indicators https://ca.water.usgs.gov/land_subsidence/central-valley-subsidence-data.html 12 Migration Pattern Public Policy Institute of California, California's Future in Health Care https://www.ppic.org/publication/californias-future-health-care/ California's Department of Aging, Data & Statistics - Facts About California's Elderly https://www.aging.ca.gov/data_and_statistics/facts_about_elderly/ 13 Golden Coins Timeline San Joaquin Valley Demographic Forecasts Final%2027%20Mar%202012_0.pdf 13 High income accumulation California Losing Residents Via Domestic Migration https://lao.ca.gov/laoecontax/article/detail/265 California Losing Residents Via Domestic Migration https://lao.ca.gov/laoecontax/article/detail/265 15 Slow population growth Demographics of California https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_California#Population 16 Central Valley is growing GeoCurrents Maps of the USA: Regions of California: Central Valley http://www.geocurrents.info/gc-maps/geocurrents-maps-by-country/geocurrentsmaps-of-the-usa 17 Population shrinking "California’s senior population is growing faster than any other age group. How the next governor responds is crucial

By MELANIE MASON, Graphics by ELLIS SIMANI and PRIYA KRISHNAKUMAR" https://www.latimes.com/projects/la-pol-ca-next-california-demographics/ 18 Migration Westward Data USA: California 19 History Time Line In a State of Migration, A Brief History of Californian Migration https://medium.com/migration-issues/a-brief-history-of-californian-migration-7fe7653ca0d Digital Schlarship in University of Richmond, Foreign -Born Population1850-2010 http://dsl.richmond.edu/panorama/foreignborn/#decade=2010 Fresno demographic

https://www.census.gov/data.html

AS 6,0,/$7,21"

60

AS SIMILATION?