IM MIGRATION
HUIRU SHEN| XIAOWEI LIN | YAO TONG
LAR 7020 FOUNDATION STUDIO | PROTOTYPING THE TERRITORY MODULE I | UNPACKING THE VALLEY
1
2
I’m immigration, and I’m migrating. We are wandering, and we are rooted.
3
The immigration history of the United States is linked to both man-made and natural events and situations around the world. Ecological events, economics and social unrest - those externalities can all influence who, why, and when people have come to this country. U.S. Immigration policies reflect this country’s emotional and political climate in reaction to or in anticipation of these events and occurrences. Struggling, hesitating, sharing, producing... they are the ‘majority-miniority’, their voice matters, they are not the others. What is their story after accomplishing the action of ‘immigrating’? What will be the new externalities that triger another version of movement? What are the forces that will drive them to complish the transition from immigrating to migrating? They are wandering, and they are rooted.
1861.12-1862.1
1881
The Great Flood: 30,000 years flood event.
1848
Gold Rush of California caused people to migrate west for a better life. Californians use Chinese immigrants as part of the work force.
Millions of European immigrants looking for better living conditions.
World War I: U.S.involvement 1917-1918
Steam Engines
1883
1861
Wildfire
1892 1882
Chinese Exclusion Act bars the entry of all Chinese
1868
1850
Flood
1856
Iron and Steel
1863-64 Drought
The first Japanese laborers arrive in Hawaii seeking a new way of life. Some of them migration to Southern California.
4 1850
1860
30 20 10
COUNTRY AMOUNT
19
Electric
American Civil War begins with Confederates firing on Union Soldiers. Immigration decreases during the American Civil War.
1849
1914-1918
1880s
Ellis Island Immigrarion Station opens.
1910
1909
California flood
Dr Ce Pro
Angel Island Immigrarion Station is put into operation near to San Francisco
1890 1875
Page Law bars entry of Chinese and Japanese, and “Mongolian� contract laborers.
1885
Fuel and Power
Alien Contract Labor Law prohibits any company or individual from bringing foreigners into the United States
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
30,579
38,508
44,776
45,144
60,672
80,387
19
East Asia South Asia West Asia North America Europe
SOCIAL EVENTS
Latin America Oceania ECOLOGICAL EVENTS
Other 100,000 10,000 1,000
TECHNOLOGICAL EVENTS
83
1990 1965
1929
The Stock Market crash leads to the Great Depression.
1939-1945
World War II begins in Europe and Asia.
1986-1992
Immigration and Nationality Act abolishes the national orgins quota system.
California’s longest droughts ever
The Immigration Act of 1990 increases the number of immigrants allowed into the United States each year to 700,000.
1995
929-1934
1933.12-1934.1
Crescenta Valley flood
1950
Drought: the State Water Project
1944-60
1952
California flood
1955
1938
Los Angeles Flood
1944 DDT
1997
Northern California flood
1998
1964
Kern County of Central Valley
Santa Ana flood
California and Western Nevada floods
Green Revolution
California flood
1937
California flood
1986
1950s
rought: The entral Valley oject
1986
California flood
The Immigration Reform and Control Act gives amnesty to approximately three million undocumented residents and provides punishments for employers who hire undocumented workers.
1948
The Displaced Persons Act permits Europeans displaced by the war.
The American Competitiveness and Work force Improvement Act increases the number of skilled temporary foreign workers U.S
2000
Genetically modified plants
2007-2009
the worst wildfires in California history
5
930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
3,656
88,957
95,807
398,585
123,350
251,610
495,679
776,984
1023,086
IMMIGRATION COMPOSITION EVOLUTION
1880s
1,362
1900s
2,852
16,238
22,064
15,150
12,123
6 2,095
Asia
38,508
North America
346
Europe
Latin AmericaOthers
TILL 1890S - THE ODD POST-WAR PERIOD
Asia
45,144
North America
Europe
Latin America Others
1900S ~ 1970S - CALIFORNIA
1940s
1990s
223,842 132,486 6,958
40,348
7,632
11,950 10,296
2,033 1,100
3,695 7
16,296
North America
Europe
87,384
A’S GOLDEN AGE
Southeast Latin Asia America
West Asia
Others
North Asia America
495,697
Southeast Asia
Europe
Latin America
West Asia
Others
1990S ~ PRESENT - CALIFORNIA’S DARK AGE
A BRIEF HISTORY OF CALIFORNIAN MIGRATION
TILL 1890S - THE ODD POST-WAR PERIOD Despite California’s pleasant climate, rich soils, growing economy, and its newly-forged transcontinental rail-link, net migration was more-or-less flat through the 1860s, 1870s, and 1880s, then dropped off sharply during the economically tumultuous 1890s.
8
1900S ~ 1970S - CALIFORNI
This period was the best migration years anywhere ever had. Californi a brief interlude during the post-WWII demobilization. Oil, movies, investments, growing trans-pacific trade, and agriculture were the ke success from the 1930s to the 1960s was as much a product of Federal
IA’S GOLDEN AGE
ia received essentially 70 years of constant positive net migration, with growing west-coast manufacturing, urbanization, military and naval ey drivers of growth until the 1930s. And then California’s migratory favor as local competitiveness
1990S ~ PRESENT - CALIFORNIA’S DARK AGE The decline of the textile industry since the 1990s, cutbacks and geographic reshuffling in the defense and aerospace industries, and the ever-increasing burden of local regulations, price inflation, and taxation have made California relatively uncompetitive versus other states. With the decline of much of California s manufacturing sector, the middle class, and especially the lower end of it, has begun to hollow out, hence why California has among the fastest-rising income inequality in the nation. At the same time high income people have volatile incomes as well. The result is fairly wild swings between apparently cataclysmic budget shortfalls, to suddenly almost excessive budget surpluses.
9
RESTAURANTS IN FRESNO
10
East Asia South Asia Europe South America
FRESNO IMMIGRANTS POPULATION DISTRIBUTION 800 700 600
FROM OTHER STATES Northeast Midwest South West
500 400 300 200 100 0
0 11 500
1000
1500
2000
2500 NorthAmerica 3000
Oceania Africa Europe
3500
Asia Latin FROM OTHER CONTINENTS
4000
12
Scenarios should become brief narratives that link historical and present events with hypothetical future events. Within the sible, each scenario should be clearly anchered in the past, with the future emerging from the past and present in a seamless the initial question... Successful scenarios are vivid and different, can be told easily, and plausibly capture future transform
For immigrations’s future in Central Valley, we proposes three scenarios from ecological, economic and social l in an aging society? Where to settle if housing is no longer affordable?... It doesn’t mean that we’ve already sette and California’s unique context. The future is still hazy, and the only thing we can do is to move forward gropin
ese storylines the internal assumptions of the scenario and the differences between stories must be clearly visible. To be plauway... Whatever approach is taken, each story should track the key indicator variable ways that have been selected based on mation. (Peterson et al, 2002)
lens. What will happen if Central Valley is dominated by catalyst events? How the work structure might change ed up stages and scripts for the ‘actors’, instead, we try to chase and trace their footprints based on Central Valley ngly.
13
Since 2040s
2051
Well Drilling Technology Highly Developed
Immigration Organization fights for equal education oppotunities
2030
2060
Since 2020
California’s elderly population achieves 15millions
Asia has surpassed Latin America as California’s leading source of new immigrants
Ground level keeps decreasing
California’s Dry Period
California’s population achieves 42 millions
2039-2045 2045-2049 California’s California’s Dry Period Wet Period
California’s elderly population achieves 30 millions
2060s
2049-2054
2020
California’s California’s population achie achie population 70 millions millions 70
2080
California’s population achieves 55 millions
2108
2066-2073
Irrigation system in San Joaquin Valley breaks down because of ground angle changing
California’s Dry Period
2050s
More than 300 new wells are annually dug.
2078
Central Valley Flooding
14
2020
2030
2040
2050
2095 2095
2060
2070
2080
2090
2099 2099
Depth o Depth achieve achieve
Till 2150 Farming production efficiency has double compared with 2010
eves
2145
California’s elderly population achieves 55 millions
2120s
2096-2109
Large farming acerage in Central Valley has subsided more than 30ft
California’s Wet Period
2105
Taxes are raised again for social pension funds
of drilling well es 2000ft
2108
Central Valley Flooding
2124
Central Valley Flooding
2100
2110
2120
2130
2137
Central Valley Flooding
2140
2150
MIGRATION URBANIZATION
Since 2080s
Both economical and political agencies contribute to release aging society situation
15
16
JUAN’S STORY
Juan Manual
Los Angleles, CA
2014 - 2020
Since 2014, Juan decided to go to U.S. to seek for better job oppotunities with higher salary. At first, he arrived Tehama in California to see if his friends who are working there can help him start his exploration on this unfamiliar land. Tehama, CA
2021 - 2025
Within the rapid development and competition in weel drilling industry, Juan went to Leite Pump and Water Well Inc and becomes a skilled worker. San Joaquin, CA
Then he moved to Central Valley, where located dense agriculture related industry. Juan worked in Fresno and Kings as farming labor till 2020. Fresno, CA Kings, CA
1995 - 2013
2025 -
Juan was born in Mexico in May, 1995 in Álvaro Obregón. After completing his education in Edron Academy (El Colegio Británico) High School in 2012, he was a school shuttle driver for one and a half years.
Since 2025, Juan is a Left Driver in Los Angeles.
Álvaro Obregón, CDMX, Mexico
Los Angeles, CA
17
SHORTAGE OF IRRIGATION -3
Wet Year
Above Avergae Temperature
Dry Year
Below Avergae Temperature
-2
-1
Degrees (F°)
Groundwater Storage (km3)
10
0
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
1
-10 Central Valley is Facing a Tendency of Groudnwater Shortage
2
Thermoelectric Mining Aquaculture Livestock
3
Industrial Public Supply 14,600 Domestic
18
California is Getting Warmer. 4
Irrigation 53,500
Precipitation(in) 3.0 2.5
Water Withdrawals Per Day (million gallons)
2.0 1.5
Groundwater Highly Supplies the Rural Population in Central Valley and is an important component in Many Industrial Process.
1.0
Monthly Precipitation in Central Valley 2008-2018(in)
0.5 0
4.0
2008
2009
2010
2011
3.5
3.0 2.5 2.0
3.0
1.5
2.5
1.0 0.5
2.0
2012
2013
2014
2015
0
1.5 3.0
1.0
2.5 2.0
0.5
Normal Precipitation
0 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
There is a tendency of precipitation lowering than normal condition. Surface water can hardly meet overall irrigation need.
Monthly Precipitation
Dec
2016 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec
2017
2018
1.5 1.0 0.5 0
SUBSIDENCE TENDENCY
19
Approximate location of maximum subsidence in the United States identified by Dr. Joseph F. Poland. San Joaquin Valley southwest of Mendota, California.
In the future, Carlifornia is facing a climate condition of getting warmer. Annual precipitation cannot fully supply enough surface water for irrigation, thus groundwater becomes a significant source for farming irrigation. In this context, high demand for groundwater lowers groudn level amd causes serve subsidence, which directly impeded the development of agriculture. Meanwhile digging wells also aggravate this issue.
Subsidence decreases farming sustainability.
CHANING IMMIGRATION DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE
Immigrants From Asia Tend to be Highly Educated.
60%
Aisan
30%
85%
Indian
35%
Latin American
Have Least a Bachelor’s Degree
California Born
Latinos Have Replaced Whites As the Largest Ethnic Group in California.
5.5%
5.8%
14.7%
12.8%
120,000
19.3%
Latin American
5.3% 7.6%
140,000
100,000 Asia Has Surprasses Latin America as the Leading Source of New Immigrants 80,000
41.5%
39.1%
Asian
66.8%
60,000
6
37.0%
20
Others4
35.8%
40,000 Nine Years of Job Growth Add up to One of the Longest Expansion in Recent History.
20,000
2 0
0
1990 -2
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
World
-4
California
-6 -8
White
Latino
Asian
American Indian
Aferican
Two or more races 38.4
40
33.0
Immmigration demographic structure is gradually changing.
30
20
10
No High School Diploma
High School Graduate
Some Collage
Associate Degree
By 2030, California May Have a Shortage of Highly Educated Workers.
Bachelor’s Degree or More
0
Share of All Workers (%)
In the future, Natural incfrease and international migration account for all of California’s growth, and inland areas are growing at higher rates though most residents still live along the coast. While Latinos have replaced whites as the largest ethnic group, immigration from Latin America has slowed. Meanwhile, immigration from Asia has increased, and many of them have veen highly educated, which will bereally in urgent need of by the California society.
AGING CALIFORNIA
1,000,000
504,000 251,000
700,000
1,242,000
400,000 1,637,000
Change in California Population by Age Group 2015 - 2030
1,300,000
100,000
-200,000 0-4
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 47
75 - 79
80 - 84
Even though California’s population is the seventh-youngest in the country, it is aging rapidly. In 2017, 14 percent of Californians were 65 and older, compared with only 9 percent in 1970. By 2030, that share will be 19 percent. The total number of adults 65 and older is projected to grow from 5.5 million in 2017 to 9.1 million in 2030. The number of seniors in every major racial/ethnic group will increase by 2030 and no ethnic group will compose a majority of the senior population. California’s population is aging.
21
SUBSIDENCE DECREASES FARMING SUSTAINABILITY
Effect to Man-made Infrestructure The greatest effects occur to infrastructures that traverse a subsiding area. Many water conveyance structures, including long stretches of the California Aqueduct, are gravity driven through the use of very small gradients; even minor changes in these gradients can cause reductions in designed flow capacity. Managers of the canals have to repeatedly retrofit their canals to keep the water flowing.
Effect to Natural System Compaction of the aquifer system, sight unseen, may permanently decrease its capacity to store water. Even if water levels rose, compacted sediments would remain as-is.
Subsidence occurring today is a legacy for all tomorrows.
Urban Area
22 Highly Problematic Area
Potential Problem Area Surface River -16.0 ~ -10.0 -10.0 ~ -7.5
Elevation Change 2013-2018 (ft)
-7.5 ~ -5.0 -5.0 ~ -2.9 -2.9 ~ -1.3 -1.3 ~ -0.4 -0.4 ~ 0.0 Similar to Historical Above Historical Moderate Great Extreme
Subsidence Projection 2010-2099
UNPACKING SUBSIDENCE Elevation Change 2013-2018 (ft)
Groundwater Prioritization
-16.0 ~ -10.0
High
-10.0 ~ -7.5
Moderate
-7.5 ~ -5.0
Low
-5.0 ~ -2.9 -2.9 ~ -1.3 -1.3 ~ -0.4 -0.4 ~ 0.0
23
Subsidence Contour Change 2008-2010(mm)
Subsidence Projection 2010-2099(ft)
25
Similar to Historical
50 ~ 100
Above Historical
100 ~ 150
Moderate
150 ~ 280
Great
280 ~ 410
Extreme
> 410
24
“WATCH O
OUT DRIVING!”
25
MIGRATING PATTERN Effect of Aging Society Shortage of workers. An ageing population could lead to a shortage of workers and hence push up wages causing wage inflation. Alternatively, firms may have to respond by encouraging more people to enter the workforce, through offering flexible working practices. Changing sectors within the economy. An increase in the numbers of retired people will create a bigger market for goods and services linked to older people (e.g. retirement homes)
Increasingly growing senior population area have more potential working oppotunities.
San Joaquin
26 Fresno
San Benito
Urbanization Porjection 2020
2060
Percentage Increase of Elderly Population 2010 - 2060 Age 60 and Over
Age 85 and Over
Over 200%
Over 400%
150 ~ 299.9%
300 ~ 399.9%
100 ~ 149.9%
200 ~ 299.9%
50 ~ 99.9%
150 ~ 199.9%
Under 50%
50 ~ 149.9%
Shortage of Care Providers High Low
Medium
San Bernardino
Riverside
27
ACTIVE? PASSIVE?
209
Red
2089
The Other Big One Flood
2064
Extreme Heat
2069-2100
2045
Promote Effective plans,programs and policies and intergrate actions
Drilling Technology
2039
Encourag other Ind
2065
2046
Extreme Drought
2090-21
Sea level Rise
Irrigarion Technology
2090
Extreme Drought
2069
Reinforce Leeves
28
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2135
2140
New Energy Technology
120
ge develope dustry
Extreme Heat
2120-2125 2124
2106
New Engergy Plant
Extreme Wildfire
2118
Ecourage Immigrantion
2130
2150
New Agriculture mode
Extreme Flood
Extreme Heat 2107 Refrigeration Technique
Extreme Storm
2100
Sea level Rise
2100
2110
2120
2130
2140
2150
CLIMATE CHANGE REFUGES
93
disgn Leeves
29
30
NGUYEN’S STORY
Vo Nguyen Lien
Austin, TX
2100 He dreamed live to New Zealand to realize his dream of being a movie fan of The Hobbit. Wellington, New Zealand
31
1995-2039 Nguyen’s grandparents and his parents worked on a corn farm land. Then Nguyen was born in Summer of the 2039,when an extreme drought happened. Sacramento, CA
2040-2065 Nguyen’s family decided to move to San Francisco and he got his Bachelor of Engineering. San Francisco, CA
Fresno, CA
2065-2089 Ho Chi Ming City, Vietnam
Nguyen’s grandparents immigrated to the States, when many re-education-camp inmates were released and sponsored by their families in the US. 1992
He migrated to Fresno due to the threatening of sea level rise and got a job in energy industry.
Austin, TX
Nguyen suffered the Other Big One Flood and moved to the Austin. 2089-2100
INCREASING TEMPERATURE- PUBLIC HEALTH
Days exceeding 106.6°F per year
15 12
60
9 6 3 0
1960-1980 50
50
40 30 20 10 0
1980-2000
40
60
32
50 40
30
30 20 10 0
2000-2020
20 100 80 60
10
40 20 0
5.1
4.1 1.9
2020-2040
1960
1980
2000
2020
Observed Data(1950-2013) Model Projections (2006-2100)
Fresno Could Exper
250
Oct
200 150
54.1
100
Sep
50 0
Aug
42.8
2040-2060
250 200 150
Jul
100
33
50
27.2
0
Jun
2060-2080
350 300 250
May
13
200 150 100
Apr
2040
rience Extreme Heat
2060
Temperature Range(°F)
106.6-108.0
2080 108.0-109.7 109.7-111.9
2100 111.9-123.8
50 0
2080-2100
34
8
0.5% 5% 50% 67%
30
6
20
4
10
2
0
0 1900
1950
2000
Projections of Sea Level Rise
2050
2100
moderate rate current rate current emmission scenario emmission
8°F 7°F
74 72
6°F
70
5°F
68
4°F
66
3°F
64
2°F
62
1°F
60
0
2010
2050
2100
Average Daily High Temperature Warmer than Historical Average
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) adopted a set of emissions scenarios known as ‘representative concentration pathways’, or RCPs. These are a set of four future pathways, named for the associated radiative forcing (the globally veraged heat trapping capacity of the atmosphere measured in watts/square meter) level in 2100 relative to pre-industrial values: RCP 8.5, 6.0, 4.5 and 2.6 . RCP 8.5 is consistent with a future in which there are no significant global efforts to limit or reduce emissions. RCP 2.6 is a stringent emissions reduction scenario and assumes that global greenhouse gas emissions will be significantly curtailed. Under this scenario, global CO2 emissions decline by about 70% between 2015 and 2050, to zero by 2080, and below zero thereafter.
Mt CO2 eq
40
10
Temperature Warmer
50
H++ RCP 8.5 RCP 2.6 RCP Historiacal Current
Sea-level rise (ft)
Projected average rates (mm/year)
INCREASING TEMPERATURE- SEA LEVEL RISE
SEA LEVEL RISE THREATEN THE CALIFORNIANS
35
30m High
1m
Sea Level
Medium
Social Vulnerability These ice sheets will soon become the primary contributor to global sea-level rise, overtaking the contributions from ocean thermal expansion and melting mountain glaciers and ice caps. Ice loss from Antarctca, and especially from West Antarctica, causes higher sea-level rise in California than the global average: for example, if the loss of West Antarctic ice were to cause global sea-level to rise by 1 foot, the associated sea-level rise in California would be about 1.25 feet.
EXTREME CLIMATE IN 2150
EXtreme Weather ‘Whiplash’
Del Norte 2,600
Dry Increasing acreage burned by wildfire is associated with increasing air temperatures. One Fourth Assessment model suggests large wildfires (greater than 25,000 acres) could become 50% more frequent by the end of century if emissions are not reduced. The model produces more years with extremely high areas burned, even compared to the historically destructive wildfires of 2017 and 2018.
Humboldt 7,800
Heat-Health Events (HHEs), which predict heat risk to local vulnerable populations, will worsen drastically throughout the state by mid-century. The Central Valley is projected to experience average HHEs that are up to two weeks long, and HHEs could occur four to ten times more often in the North Sierra region.
Sonoma 1,200 Napa
Wet
1,500 Marin
If greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated, key glaciological processes could cross thresholds that lead to rapidly accelerating and effectively irreversible ice loss. Aggressive reductions in greenhouse gas emissions may substantially reduce but do not eliminate the risk to California of extreme sea-level rise from Antarctic ice loss. Moreover, current observations of Antarctic melt rates cannot rule out the potential for extreme sealevel rise in the future, because the processes that could drive extreme Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat later in the century are different from the processes driving loss now.
39,000
36
San Francisco 10,000 San Mateo
Climate models and basic physics suggest that atmospheric rivers will become moister and more intense in the future, as a warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor (about 4% more for every degree 1°F of warming). The UCLA study also found that over the next 40 years, the state will be 300 to 400 percent more likely to have a prolonged storm sequence as severe as the one that caused a now-legendary California flood more than 150 years ago.
110,000 San Cruz 16,000
Monterey 14,000
10ft sea level rise threaten areas sea level rise threaten areas 75-100+ hectares area burned by wildfire
Santa Barbara 6,700
50-75 hectares area burned by wildfire 40-60 social vulnerability composite score 60-80 social vulnerability composite score 80-100 social vulnerability composite score 2pt flood zones
Ventura 16,000 Los Angeles 14,000 Orange 110,000
vulnerable population 1,000 vulnerable population 10,000 vulnerable population 100,000
San Diego 9,300
UNPACKING DROUGHT AND DELUGE
Projections of Flood Areas
Projections ofLands in Flood
100-year Flood
Agriculture
500-year Flood
Natural Vegetation Developed Wetland
37
Projections of Wildfire
1961-1990
2035-2064 0-25 hectares
25-50 hectares
2070-2100 50-75 hectares
75-100 hectares
100+ hectares
Areas burned by wildfires from current time (modeled as 1961-1990), for mid-century (2035-2064), and for latecentury (2070-2100). By the end of the century, California could experience wildfires that burn up to a maximum of 178% more acres per year than current averages.
38
“LET’S GO
O BOATING.”
39
MIGRATION PROJECTION IN 2150
California’s biggest migration deficits had a Western flair. The No. 1 state for net outmigration was Arizona, which added 32,326 more Californians that who departed for the Golden State. No. 2 was Oregon, 29,561 more Californians in than losses to the Golden State. Next in the rankings came moves between Nevada, with California outmigration of 23,745; Texas (22,175); Washington (19,341); and Idaho (15,746). Comparing with the best weather that most people feel, it could project what state that the californians will depart to. Texas,Arizona,Florida, as well as the other countries might be the best choices for climate change refuges.
50109 Washington 21372
20548
5626 47513
16046
Idaho
Oregon
23768
17020
9925
Illinois
27014 25038
Nevada
59233
40
10995
13523
North Carolina
30919 24611 Texas Florida
InFlow OutFlow
New Jersey
22469
Arizona
Good Weather
New York 12906 7968
40999
Better Weather
34278 24982
Pennsylvania
63174
26907
Best Weather
16141
21162 14509 Virginia
Colorado
Utah
27117
41
WE GO WITH THE STREAM.
2083-2 Govern think a to prom agricu
2060-2070 Government forbid to over farm in central valley. 2043-2059 Decrese of irragation land causes lack of agricultural occupations.
2020-2050 New harvesting and agricultual production machines are innovated.
2080 2072-2078 The year lacks of rain. Increasing house price makes more people leave central valley.
2040 Continuous rain days provide sufficient humidity for agriculture.
2030 al Valley agriculture arned lots of profit to t more investment.
2095 Most comfortable seasons for production practice in those several decades.
42
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2
2105 nment starts to about new way mote new ulture.
2113-2124 Machine starts to replace labors in a larger range.
n
2100
2140-2150 Government invites more immigrant merchants to build the agricultural fields.
2110 High temperature through the year.
2110
2120
2135 Plentiful snow provides suitable field for seeding.
2130
2140
2150
GOLDEN COINS
2113-2124 New agricultural modes is created.
43
44
GABRIELA’S STORY
Gabriela GarcĂa Rodriguez
Dallas, TX
2020-now
Gabriela left to Seattle since the housing price is rising rapidly those years. In seattle, she got more different directions in her career.
2014 - 2018
Since 2014, Gabriela started to get into the United States to learn music. She got a lot of chances to enrich her music career. San Francisco, CA
1990- 2013 Gabriela was born in La Habana, Cuba. She started to learn music since 10 years old. She dreamed of to become a famous musician when she grows up. La Habana, Cuba
Los Angeles, CA
45
2018-2020
Gabriela moved to Los Angeles to search for more musical opportunities. And she had access to more experience to be a producer.
OVER $200K
$140 TO $200K
$110 TO $140K
$90K TO $110K
$70K TO $90K
$55K TO $70K
$40K TO $50K
$30K TO $40K
$15K TO $30K
UNDER $15K
HIGH INCOME ACCUMULATION
ALABAMA ALASKA ARIZONA ARKANASAS COLORADO CONNECTICUT DELAWARE D.C. FLORIDA GEORGIA HAWAII IDAHO ILLINOIS INDIANA IOWA
46
KANSAS KENTUCKY LOUISIANA MAINE MARYLAND MASSSACHUSETTS MICHIGAN MISSISSIPPI MISSOURI MINNESOTA MONTANA NEBRASKA NEVADA NEW HAMPSHIRE NEW JERSEY NEW MEXICO NEW YORK NORTH CAROLINA NORTH DAKOTA OHIO OKLAHOMA OREGON PENNSYLVANIA RHODE ISLAND SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTH DAKOTA TENNESSEE TEXAS UTAH VERMONT VIRGINIA WASHINGTON WEST VIRGINIA WISCONSIN WYOMING
-48500
0
23000
GRADUATE DEGREE
BACHELOR’S DEGREE
ASSOCIATE’S DEGREE
SOME COLLEGE
HIGH SCHOOL GRAD
SOME HIGH SCHOOL
NO HIGH SCHOOL
LOWER-EDUCATION OURFLOW
ALABAMA ALASKA ARIZONA ARKANASAS COLORADO CONNECTICUT DELAWARE D.C. FLORIDA GEORGIA HAWAII IDAHO ILLINOIS INDIANA IOWA KANSAS KENTUCKY LOUISIANA MAINE MARYLAND MASSSACHUSETTS MICHIGAN MISSISSIPPI MISSOURI MINNESOTA MONTANA NEBRASKA NEVADA NEW HAMPSHIRE NEW JERSEY NEW MEXICO NEW YORK NORTH CAROLINA NORTH DAKOTA OHIO OKLAHOMA OREGON PENNSYLVANIA RHODE ISLAND SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTH DAKOTA
47
TENNESSEE TEXAS UTAH VERMONT VIRGINIA WASHINGTON WEST VIRGINIA WISCONSIN WYOMING
-53000
0
26000
6
3.2
9
3.3
9
-0.
3.6
3
3.1
1.8
0.7
0.4
0
5.1
5.7
6.3
6.6
8.4
7.6
7.2
6.8
6.5
0
SLOW POPULATION GROWTH
5.7
8.7
6.6
8.8
5. 3
4 8.
8.8
8.7 9 9.6
20 20 03 20 02 20 01 199 00 199 9 199 8 7 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 4 198 3 198 2 198 81 19 80 19 79 19 78 19
10
10.6 11.3
11.9 12.8
13 12.8 11.4
10.7 10.4
10.4 9.6
9.6
BIRTH DATA NATURE CHANGE ( PER 1000)
2.4 1.7
1.2 1.7
1.2 1.2 2.1
3.9 4
4.6 6
8.8
9.7
9.7 12
14
7.7 13
.6
12.4
10.9
9.6
9.4
9.1
9.4
9.7
3
9
7
.8
.4
15
6.2
.1
14 14 .7
15 8
15.2
15
14.9
14
13.3
15.1
16.1
15.
15.
6.2
.9
15
6.8
8.2
3.1
8
8.8
2.8
7
9.2
4.9
23 19 24 19 25 19 26 19 27 19 8 192 9 192 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 194 194 2 194 3 19 5 19 46 1 47 19 948 49
19 19 77 19 76 19 75 19 74 197 73 197 2 197 1 0 1969 1968 1967 1966 1965 1964
9.8
5.9
3.3
50 19 951 1 52 19 53 19 54 19 55 19 6 195 7 195 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963
9.5
6.6
4.4
7.
48
6.1
1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 191 191 5 191 6 19 7 19 18 1 19 19 920 19 21 22
2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 1 201 0 201 9 200 08 20 07 20 06 20 05 20 004 2
8.6
8.4
8.6
From 2006 until 2016, the state lost a net population of about 1 million people from domestic emigration; the plurality of whom moved to Texas, yet the population of the state continued to grow due to immigration from overseas.
.1
14
.1
CENTRAL VALLEY IS GROWING
PLUMAS
SIERRA
NEVADA
PLACER AMADOR
LAKE
EL DORADO ALPINES
CALAVERAS MARIPOSA
49
MADERA
SAN BENITO
SAN BERNADINO
RIVERSIDE
1970 2010
POPULATION RATIO BETWEEN 1970 AND 2010 GROWTH RATEBELOW STATE AVERAGE GROWTH RATE ABOVE STATE AVERAGE
INCOME AND HOUSING PRICE
INCOME BY LOCATION $40.7k
$46.9k
$52.9k
$60.7k
$68.5k
$75.4k
$87.7k
$101.1k
MEDIAN SALES PRICE FOR HOMES
Under$150k $200k-300k $400k-500k $600k-700k $800k-900k $150k-200k $300k-400k $500k-600k $700k-800k $900k-1000k
50
POPULATION SHRINKING
POPULATION DISTRIBUTION
CHNAGE IN POPULATION
Less than 100,000
Less than 0
100,000 to 499,999
0 to 0.9
500,000 to 3 million
More than 1.0
More than 3 million
51
NET IMMIGRATION
NET DOMESTIC MIGRATION
Less than 1,000
Less than -10,000
1,000 to 15,000
-11,001 to -10,000
More than 15,000
0 to -1,000 0 to 1,000 More than 1,000
52
“IT’S OUR DIN
NNER TONIGHT.”
53
MIGRATING WESTWARD
MONTANA
WASHINGTON NEW YORK ILLINOIS NEW JERSEY MICHIGAN FLORIDA ALASKA PENNSYLVANIA CONNECTICUT MARYLAND WISCONSIN MINNESOTA HAWAII ALABAMA DELAWARE OHIO D.C.
OREGON
UTAH MAINE NORTH DAKOTA WEST VIRGINIA MASSACHUSETTS VERMONT RHODE ISLAND NEW HAMPSHIRE LOUISIANA MISSISSIPPI MISSOURI INDIANA WYOMING SOUTH DAKOTA KENTUCKY NEW MEXICO NEBRASKA ARKANSAS IOWA SOUTH CAROLINA MONTANA KANSAS VIRGINIA TENNESSEE NORTH CAROLINA GEORGIA OKLAHOMA IDAHO UTAH WASHINGTON OREGON NEVADA ARIZONA
54
100,000
IDAHO
0
100,000
200,000
COLORADO VIRGINIA
NEVADA
KANSAS NORTH CAROLINA TENNESSEE OKLAHOMA GEORGIA
TEXAS ARIZONA
TEXAS -300,000
Although California generally has been losing residents to the rest of the country, movement between California and some states deviates from this pattern. The figure below shows net migration between California and individual states between 2007 and 2016. California gained, on net, residents from about one-third of states, led by New York, Illinois, and New Jersey. On the flip side, top destinations for those leaving California were Texas, Arizona, Nevada, and Oregon.
55
SLAVE OF GOLD.
CITATION
1 Climate Change Refuges Brandon Miller：Climate change could leave Californians with 'weather whiplash' https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/23/us/climate-change-california-whiplash-wxc/index.html 2 Increasing temperature-public health Kristin Ralff Douglas：California in 2050: Some Sizzling Predictions http://www.cpuc.ca.gov/uploadedFiles/CPUC_Public_Website/Content/About_Us/ Organization/Divisions/Policy_and_Planning/PPD_Work_Products_(2014_forward)(1)/CaFutureUnderClimateChange.pdf 3 Increasing temperature-sea level OPC-SAT： Rising Seas in California： AN UPDATE ON SEA-LEVEL RISE SCIENCE http://www.opc.ca.gov/webmaster/ftp/pdf/docs/rising-seas-in-california-an-update-on-sea-level-rise-science.pdf 4 Sea level rise threaten the Californians S urging Seas: Risk Zone Map https://ss2.climatecentral.org/#12/40.7297/-74.0070?show=satellite&projections=0-K14_RCP85-SLR&level=5&unit=feet&pois=hide 5 Extreme Climate in 2150 ic-coast California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment：California's Changing Climate 2018 http://www.climateassessment.ca.gov/state/docs/20180827-SummaryBrochure.pdf FEMA Flood Map Service Center https://msc.fema.gov/portal/search?AddressQuery=Sacramento#searchresultsanchor USGS Map service: Coastal Vulnerability to Sea-Level Ris https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/usgs-map-service-coastal-vulnerability-to-sea-level-rise https://www.energy.ca.gov/2012publications/CEC-500-2012-013/CEC- 500-2012-013.pdf 56
6 Unpacking drought and deluge California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment：California's Changing Climate 2018 http://www.climateassessment.ca.gov/state/docs/20180827-SummaryBrochure.pdf Kirk Klausmeyer, Megan Webb：California's Flood Risk: Green Solutions for an Uncertain Future green-solutions Migration projection in 2150 Liz Osborn：Top 10 US States With the Best Weather All Year Round https://www.currentresults.com/Weather/top-10-us-states-with-best-weather.php Jonathan Lansnerc：California migration: What states got the most who left? Who moved here? https://www.ocregister.com/2018/12/05/mapped-where-docalifornians-move-to-what-states-do-they-come-from/ 7 Changing California Demographic Structure Public Policy Institute of California, California's Future in Population https://www.ppic.org/publication/californias-future-population/ Public Policy Institute of California, California's Future in Economy https://www.ppic.org/publication/californias-future-economy/ 8 Aging California Public Policy Institute of California, California's Future in Population https://www.ppic.org/publication/californias-future-population/ 9 Shortage of Irrigation Public Policy Institute of California, California's Future in Climate Change https://www.ppic.org/publication/californias-future-climate-change/ Nature Research, Projecting groundwater storage changes in California’s Central Vall https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-31210-1 The Groundwater Foundation, What is Groundwater? https://www.groundwater.org/get-informed/basics/groundwater.html U.S. Climate Data, Monthly Climate Data in California https://www.usclimatedata.com/climate/fresno/california/united-states/usca2234/2014/12 10 Subsidence Tendency Colorado Geological Survey, Ground Subsidence http://coloradogeologicalsurvey.org/geologic-hazards/ground-subsidence/ Subsidence Decrease Farming Sustainability California Department of Water Resource, ,Natural Communities Commonly Associated with Groundwater (NCCAG) Dataset Viewer https://gis.water.ca.gov/app/NCDatasetViewer/ California Department of Water Resource, Water Management Planning Tool https://gis.water.ca.gov/app/boundaries/ California Department of Water Resource, SGMA Data Viewer https://sgma.water.ca.gov/webgis/?appid=SGMADataViewer
USGS, Conjunctive Use in Response to Potential Climate Changes in the Central Valley, California https://ca.water.usgs.gov/projects/central-valley/climate.html 11 Unpacking Subsidence California Department of Water Resource, ,Natural Communities Commonly Associated with Groundwater (NCCAG) Dataset Viewer https://gis.water. ca.gov/app/NCDatasetViewer/ USGS, Central Valley: Drought Indicators https://ca.water.usgs.gov/land_subsidence/central-valley-subsidence-data.html 12 Migration Pattern Public Policy Institute of California, California's Future in Health Care https://www.ppic.org/publication/californias-future-health-care/ California's Department of Aging, Data & Statistics - Facts About California's Elderly https://www.aging.ca.gov/data_and_statistics/facts_about_elderly/ 13 Golden Coins Timeline San Joaquin Valley Demographic Forecasts Final%2027%20Mar%202012_0.pdf 13 High income accumulation California Losing Residents Via Domestic Migration https://lao.ca.gov/laoecontax/article/detail/265 California Losing Residents Via Domestic Migration https://lao.ca.gov/laoecontax/article/detail/265 15 Slow population growth Demographics of California https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_California#Population 16 Central Valley is growing GeoCurrents Maps of the USA: Regions of California: Central Valley http://www.geocurrents.info/gc-maps/geocurrents-maps-by-country/geocurrentsmaps-of-the-usa 17 Population shrinking "California’s senior population is growing faster than any other age group. How the next governor responds is crucial By MELANIE MASON, Graphics by ELLIS SIMANI and PRIYA KRISHNAKUMAR" https://www.latimes.com/projects/la-pol-ca-next-california-demographics/ 18 Migration Westward Data USA: California 19 History Time Line In a State of Migration, A Brief History of Californian Migration https://medium.com/migration-issues/a-brief-history-of-californian-migration-7fe7653ca0d Digital Schlarship in University of Richmond, Foreign -Born Population1850-2010 http://dsl.richmond.edu/panorama/foreignborn/#decade=2010 Fresno demographic
https://www.census.gov/data.html
57
FULL PINUP VERSION
1861.12-1862.1
1881
The Great Flood: 30,000 years flood event.
1848
Gold Rush of California caused people to migrate west for a better life. Californians use Chinese immigrants as part of the work force.
Wildfire
Flood
1856
Iron and Steel
1863-64 Drought
1850
1860
30 20 10
The Stock Market crash leads to the Great Depression.
1883
Ellis Island Immigrarion Station opens.
1910
California flood
1885
Page Law bars entry of Chinese and Japanese, and “Mongolian� contract laborers.
California’s longest droughts ever
The Immigration Act of 1990 increases the number of immigrants allowed into the United States each year to 700,000.
1995
Crescenta Valley flood
California flood
1955
1938
1986
California flood
The Immigration Reform and Control Act gives amnesty to approximately three million undocumented residents and provides punishments for employers who hire undocumented workers.
1948
The Displaced Persons Act permits Europeans displaced by the war.
1944 DDT
1997
Northern California flood
1998
1964
Kern County of Central Valley
Los Angeles Flood
California flood
Green Revolution
1952
Santa Ana flood
Fuel and Power
Alien Contract Labor Law prohibits any company or individual from bringing foreigners into the United States
California and Western Nevada floods
1944-60
California flood
1937
1890 1875
1986-1992
1986
Drought: the State Water Project
1950
1933.12-1934.1
Angel Island Immigrarion Station is put into operation near to San Francisco
1909
1950s
Drought: The Central Valley Project
1892 1882
Immigration and Nationality Act abolishes the national orgins quota system.
1939-1945
World War II begins in Europe and Asia.
1929-1934
Electric
Chinese Exclusion Act bars the entry of all Chinese
The first Japanese laborers arrive in Hawaii seeking a new way of life. Some of them migration to Southern California.
1965
1929 1914-1918
World War I: U.S.involvement 1917-1918
Steam Engines
1868
1850
1990
Millions of European immigrants looking for better living conditions.
1880s
1861
American Civil War begins with Confederates firing on Union Soldiers. Immigration decreases during the American Civil War.
1849
The American Competitiveness and Work force Improvement Act increases the number of skilled temporary foreign workers U.S
2000
Genetically modified plants
2007-2009
the worst wildfires in California history
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
30,579
38,508
44,776
45,144
60,672
80,387
83,656
88,957
95,807
398,585
123,350
251,610
495,679
776,984
1023,086
East Asia South Asia
COUNTRY AMOUNT
West Asia North America Europe
SOCIAL EVENTS
Latin America Oceania ECOLOGICAL EVENTS
7,632
2039-2045 2045-2049
Irrigation system in San Joaquin Valley breaks down because of ground angle changing
California’s Dry Period
More than 300 new wells are annually dug.
Depth of of drilling drilling well well Depth achieves 2000ft 2000ft achieves
2108
2078
Central Valley Flooding
Central Valley Flooding
2124
2137
Central Valley Flooding
Central Valley Flooding
10,296 2,033 1,100
2,095
North America
16,296
346
Europe
Latin AmericaOthers
TILL 1890S - THE ODD POST-WAR PERIOD
Asia
45,144
North America
Europe
Latin America Others
North America
2020
Southeast Latin Asia America
Europe
87,384
West Asia
Others
1900S ~ 1970S - CALIFORNIA’S GOLDEN AGE
North Asia America
495,697
Southeast Asia
Europe
Latin America
West Asia
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2110
2120
2130
2140
2150
Others
1990S ~ PRESENT - CALIFORNIA’S DARK AGE
A BRIEF HISTORY OF CALIFORNIAN MIGRATION
TILL 1890S - THE ODD POST-WAR PERIOD
1900S ~ 1970S - CALIFORNIA’S GOLDEN AGE
2093
1990S ~ PRESENT - CALIFORNIA’S DARK AGE
Redisgn Leeves
2089
The Other Big One Flood
2064
Extreme Heat
Despite California’s pleasant climate, rich soils, growing economy, and its newly-forged transcontinental rail-link, net migration
This period was the best migration years anywhere ever had. California received essentially 70 years of constant positive net migration, with a brief interlude during the post-WWII demobilization. Oil, movies, growing west-coast manufacturing, urbanization, military and naval
The decline of the textile industry since the 1990s, cutbacks and geographic reshuffling in the defense and aerospace industries,
was more-or-less flat through the 1860s, 1870s, and 1880s, then dropped off sharply during the economically tumultuous 1890s.
investments, growing trans-pacific trade, and agriculture were the key drivers of growth until the 1930s. And then California’s migratory success from the 1930s to the 1960s was as much a product of Federal favor as local competitiveness
and the ever-increasing burden of local regulations, price inflation, and taxation have made California relatively uncompetitive
Sea level Rise
Irrigarion Technology
2090
Extreme Wildfire
Ecourage Immigrantion
Extreme Heat
2118
2130
2150
New Agriculture mode
Extreme Flood
Extreme Heat
Extreme Drought
2107 Refrigeration Technique
Reinforce Leeves
Extreme Storm
2100
Sea level Rise
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2110
2120
2130
2140
2150
Scenarios should become brief narratives that link historical and present events with hypothetical future events. Within these storylines the internal assumptions of the scenario and the differences between stories must be clearly visible. To be plausible, each scenario should be clearly anchered in the past, with the future emerging from the past and present in a seamless way... Whatever approach is taken, each story should track the key indicator variable ways that have been selected based on the initial question... Successful scenarios are vivid and different, can be told easily, and plausibly capture future transformation. (Peterson et al, 2002)
The immigration history of the United States is linked to both man-made and natural events and situations around the world. Ecological events, economics and social unrest - those externalities FDQ DOO LQà XHQFH ZKR ZK\ DQG ZKHQ SHRSOH KDYH FRPH WR WKLV FRXQWU\ 8 6 ,PPLJUDWLRQ SROLFLHV UHà HFW WKLV FRXQWU\¡V HPRWLRQDO DQG SROLWLFDO FOLPDWH LQ UHDFWLRQ WR RU LQ DQWLFLSDWLRQ RI WKHVH events and occurrences. 6WUXJJOLQJ KHVLWDWLQJ VKDULQJ SURGXFLQJ WKH\ DUH WKH œPDMRULW\ PLQLRULW\¡ WKHLU YRLFH PDWters, they are not the others. :KDW LV WKHLU VWRU\ DIWHU DFFRPSOLVKLQJ WKH DFWLRQ RI œLPPLJUDWLQJ¡" :KDW ZLOO EH WKH QHZ H[WHUQDOLWLHV WKDW WULJHU DQRWKHU YHUVLRQ RI PRYHPHQW" :KDW DUH WKH IRUFHV WKDW ZLOO GULYH WKHP WR FRPSOLVK WKH WUDQVLWLRQ IURP LPPLJUDWLQJ WR PLJUDWLQJ" They are wandering, and they are rooted.
)RU LPPLJUDWLRQV¡V IXWXUH LQ &HQWUDO 9DOOH\ ZH SURSRVHV WKUHH VFHQDULRV IURP HFRORJLFDO HFRQRPLF DQG VRFLDO OHQV :KDW ZLOO KDSSHQ LI &HQWUDO 9DOOH\ LV GRPLQDWHG E\ FDWDO\VW HYHQWV" +RZ WKH ZRUN VWUXFWXUH PLJKW FKDQJH LQ DQ DJLQJ VRFLHW\" :KHUH WR VHWWOH LI KRXVLQJ LV QR ORQJHU DIIRUGDEOH" ,W GRHVQ¡W PHDQ WKDW ZH¡YH DOUHDG\ VHWWHG XS VWDJHV DQG VFULSWV IRU WKH œDFWRUV¡ LQVWHDG ZH WU\ WR FKDVH DQG WUDFH WKHLU IRRWSULQWV EDVHG RQ &HQWUDO 9DOOH\ DQG &DOLIRUQLD¡V XQLTXH FRQWH[W 7KH IXWXUH LV VWLOO KD]\ DQG WKH RQO\ WKLQJ ZH FDQ GR LV WR PRYH IRUZDUG JURSLQJO\
30%
85%
Indian
35%
Latin American
140,000 5.8%
5.5%
120,000
100,000 Asia Has Surprasses Latin America as the Leading Source of New Immigrants
Asian
80,000
60,000
2021 - 2025
Within the rapid development and competition in weel drilling industry, Juan went to Leite Pump and Water Well Inc and becomes a skilled worker.
40,000 6
Others4
San Joaquin, CA
Nine Years of Job Growth Add up to One of the Longest Expansion in Recent History.
0
0
1990 -2
2000
2020
2030
California
-6
Kings, CA
-8
1995 - 2013
2025 -
Juan was born in Mexico in May, 1995 in Ă lvaro ObregĂłn. After completing his education in Edron Academy (El Colegio BritĂĄnico) High School in 2012, he was a school shuttle driver for one and a half years.
Since 2025, Juan is a Left Driver in Los Angeles. Los Angeles, CA
Ă lvaro ObregĂłn, CDMX, Mexico
White
Latino
Asian
American Indian
Two or more races
30
20
10
No High School Diploma
High School Graduate
Some Collage
Associate Degree
Bachelor’s Degree or More
Days exceeding 106.6°F per year
15 12
60
9
Austin, TX
6 3 0
1960-1980 50
50
40 30
2100
20
He dreamed live to New Zealand to realize his dream of being a movie fan of The Hobbit.
10 0
1980-2000
Wellington, New Zealand
40
60 50 40
30
30 20 10 0
2000-2020
20
1995-2039
100
Nguyen’s grandparents and his parents worked on a corn farm land. Then Nguyen was born in Summer of the 2039,when an extreme drought happened.
80 60
Sacramento, CA
10
40
2040-2065
20
Nguyen’s family decided to move to San Francisco and he got his Bachelor of Engineering.
0
San Francisco, CA
1960
Fresno, CA
2065-2089 Ho Chi Ming City, Vietnam
Nguyen’s grandparents immigrated to the States, when many re-education-camp inmates were released and sponsored by their families in the US. 1992
5.1
4.1 1.9
2020-2040
2000
1980
2020
Observed Data(1950-2013) Model Projections (2006-2100)
He migrated to Fresno due to the threatening of sea level rise and got a job in energy industry.
Austin, TX
Fresno Could Expe
Nguyen suffered the Other Big One Flood and moved to the Austin. 2089-2100
100
2095 Most comfortable seasons for production practice in those several decades.
2140-2150 Government invites more immigrant merchants to build the agricultural fields. 2113-2124 Machine starts to replace labors in a larger range.
2135 Plentiful snow provides suitable field for seeding.
0
500
2020
1000
1500
2000
2500
South Asia
NorthAmerica 3000
Europe South America
Oceania Africa Europe
3500
Asia Latin FROM OTHER CONTINENTS
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2110
2120
2130
2140
2150
Gabriela GarcĂa Rodriguez
Dallas, TX
2020-now
Gabriela left to Seattle since the housing price is rising rapidly those years. In seattle, she got more different directions in her career.
2014 - 2018
Since 2014, Gabriela started to get into the United States to learn music. She got a lot of chances to enrich her music career. San Francisco, CA
1990- 2013 Gabriela was born in La Habana, Cuba. She started to learn music since 10 years old. She dreamed of to become a famous musician when she grows up. La Habana, Cuba
Los Angeles, CA
2018-2020
Gabriela moved to Los Angeles to search for more musical opportunities. And she had access to more experience to be a producer.
$140 TO $200K
OVER $200K
$40K TO $50K
$90K TO $110K
$110 TO $140K
$30K TO $40K
$55K TO $70K
$70K TO $90K
2113-2124 New agricultural modes is created.
2110 High temperature through the year. 2080 2072-2078 The year lacks of rain. Increasing house price makes more people leave central valley.
2040 Continuous rain days provide sufficient humidity for agriculture.
2010-2030 Central Valley agriculture has earned lots of profit to attract more investment.
0
2083-2105 Government starts to think about new way to promote new agriculture.
2060-2070 Government forbid to over farm in central valley. 2043-2059 Decrese of irragation land causes lack of agricultural occupations.
2020-2050 New harvesting and agricultual production machines are innovated.
200
East Asia
HIGH INCOME ACCUMULATION
South West
400 300
0
By 2030, California May Have a Shortage of Highly Educated Workers.
INCREASING TEMPERATURE- PUBLIC HEALTH
Vo Nguyen Lien
GABRIELA’S STORY
Midwest
500
40
33.0
In the future, Natural incfrease and international migration account for all of California’s growth, and inland areas are growing at higher rates though most residents still live along the coast. While Latinos have replaced whites as the largest ethnic group, immigration from Latin America has slowed. Meanwhile, immigration from Asia has increased, and many of them have veen highly educated, which will bereally in urgent need of by the California society.
Immmigration demographic structure is gradually changing.
NGUYEN’S STORY
Aferican
38.4
UNDER $15K
700 600
2040
World
-4
Fresno, CA
2010
FROM OTHER STATES Northeast
20,000
2
Then he moved to Central Valley, where located dense agriculture related industry. Juan worked in Fresno and Kings as farming labor till 2020.
$15K TO $30K
800
Have Least a Bachelor’s Degree
California Born
Tehama, CA
FRESNO IMMIGRANTS POPULATION DISTRIBUTION
RESTAURANTS IN FRESNO
GOLDEN COINS
HUIRU SHEN| XIAOWEI LIN | YAO TONG
New Engergy Plant
is fairly wild swings between apparently cataclysmic budget shortfalls, to suddenly almost excessive budget surpluses.
,¡P LPPLJUDWLRQ DQG ,¡P PLJUDWLQJ We are wandering, and we are rooted.
2140
2120-2125 2124
2106
2069
the fastest-rising income inequality in the nation. At the same time high income people have volatile incomes as well. The result
LAR 7020 FOUNDATION STUDIO | PROTOTYPING THE TERRITORY MODULE I | UNPACKING THE VALLEY
2090-2120
Encourage develope other Industry
2065
2046
Extreme Drought
New Energy Technology
Promote Effective plans,programs and policies and intergrate actions
Drilling Technology
versus other states. With the decline of much of California s manufacturing sector, the middle class, and especially the lower end of it, has begun to hollow out, hence why California has among
IM MIGRATION
2135 2069-2100
2045
2039
60%
Aisan
Latin American 2014 - 2020
Since 2014, Juan decided to go to U.S. to seek for better job oppotunities with higher salary. At first, he arrived Tehama in California to see if his friends who are working there can help him start his exploration on this unfamiliar land.
Share of All Workers (%)
Asia
38,508
3,695
Immigrants From Asia Tend to be Highly Educated.
Latinos Have Replaced Whites As the Largest Ethnic Group in California.
Los Angleles, CA 12.8%
2105
Taxes are raised again for social pension funds
2099 2099
CHANING IMMIGRATION DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE
Juan Manual
14.7%
2108
2066-2073
2050s
California’s California’s Dry Period Wet Period
11,950
12,123
Ground level keeps decreasing
JUAN’S STORY
41.5%
40,348
6,958
22,064
15,150
Large farming acerage in Central Valley has subsided more than 30ft
California’s Wet Period
35.8%
2,852
16,238
2145
California’s elderly population achieves 55 millions
2120s
2096-2109
39.1%
132,486 1,362
California’s California’s achieves achieves population population 70 millions millions 70
California’s elderly population achieves 30 millions
2060s
California’s Dry Period
Till 2150 Farming production efficiency has double compared with 2010
Both economical and political agencies contribute to release aging society situation
2095 2095
2080
California’s population achieves 55 millions
2049-2054
2020
California’s population achieves 42 millions
223,842
Since 2080s
Well Drilling Technology Highly Developed
2060
Since 2020
Asia has surpassed Latin America as California’s leading source of new immigrants
1990s
37.0%
1940s
5.3% 7.6%
1900s
19.3%
Since 2040s
2051
Immigration Organization fights for equal education oppotunities
2030
California’s elderly population achieves 15millions
1880s
66.8%
IMMIGRATION COMPOSITION EVOLUTION
CLIMATE CHANGE REFUGES
100,000 10,000 1,000
MIGRATION URBANIZATION MIGRATION
Other
TECHNOLOGICAL EVENTS
ALABAMA ALASKA ARIZONA ARKANASAS COLORADO CONNECTICUT DELAWARE D.C. FLORIDA GEORGIA HAWAII IDAHO ILLINOIS INDIANA IOWA KANSAS KENTUCKY LOUISIANA MAINE MARYLAND MASSSACHUSETTS MICHIGAN MISSISSIPPI MISSOURI MINNESOTA MONTANA NEBRASKA NEVADA NEW HAMPSHIRE NEW JERSEY NEW MEXICO NEW YORK NORTH CAROLINA NORTH DAKOTA OHIO OKLAHOMA OREGON PENNSYLVANIA RHODE ISLAND SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTH DAKOTA TENNESSEE TEXAS UTAH VERMONT VIRGINIA WASHINGTON WEST VIRGINIA WISCONSIN WYOMING
4000 -48500
0
23000
AGING CALIFORNIA
SHORTAGE OF IRRIGATION
SUBSIDENCE DECREASES FARMING SUSTAINABILITY
SUBSIDENCE TENDENCY
-3
Wet Year
Above Avergae Temperature
Dry Year
Below Avergae Temperature
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
High Moderate Low
Increasingly growing senior population area have more potential working oppotunities.
-2.9 ~ -1.3 -1.3 ~ -0.4
0
1990
Shortage of workers. An ageing population could lead to a shortage of workers and hence push up wages causing wage inflation. Alternatively, firms may have to respond by encouraging more people to enter the workforce, through offering flexible working practices. Changing sectors within the economy. An increase in the numbers of retired people will create a bigger market for goods and services linked to older people (e.g. retirement homes)
Groundwater Prioritization
-16.0 ~ -10.0 -10.0 ~ -7.5 -7.5 ~ -5.0 -5.0 ~ -2.9
Compaction of the aquifer system, sight unseen, may permanently decrease its capacity to store water. Even if water levels rose, compacted sediments would remain as-is.
Degrees (F°)
Subsidence occurring today is a legacy for all tomorrows.
-0.4 ~ 0.0
1 1,300,000
504,000 251,000
Groundwater Storage (km3)
Effect of Aging Society Elevation Change 2013-2018 (ft)
Effect to Natural System
-1
0
MIGRATING PATTERN
UNPACKING SUBSIDENCE
Effect to Man-made Infrestructure The greatest effects occur to infrastructures that traverse a subsiding area. Many water conveyance structures, including long stretches of the California Aqueduct, are gravity driven through the use of very small gradients; even minor changes in these gradients can cause reductions in designed flow capacity. Managers of the canals have to repeatedly retrofit their canals to keep the water flowing.
-2
10
-10 2
California is Getting Warmer. 4
Precipitation(in) 3.0
700,000
Fresno
Highly Problematic Area
100,000
San Benito
-200,000
2.0
0-4
1.5
Groundwater Highly Supplies the Rural Population in Central Valley and is an important component in Many Industrial Process.
San Joaquin
400,000
2.5
Water Withdrawals Per Day (million gallons)
Urban Area
1,637,000
Domestic
Irrigation 53,500
1,000,000
Change in California Population by Age Group 2015 - 2030
3
Industrial Public Supply 14,600
1,242,000
Central Valley is Facing a Tendency of Groudnwater Shortage Thermoelectric Mining Aquaculture Livestock
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 47
75 - 79
80 - 84
Potential Problem Area
Subsidence Projection 2010-2099(ft)
Subsidence Contour Change 2008-2010(mm)
1.0
Urbanization Porjection
Monthly Precipitation in Central Valley 2008-2018(in)
0.5 0
4.0
2008
2009
2010
2011
3.0
3.5
-16.0 ~ -10.0
2.5
-10.0 ~ -7.5
2.0
3.0
2013
2014
0
2015
Above Historical
100 ~ 150
Moderate
150 ~ 280
Great
280 ~ 410
Extreme
-0.4 ~ 0.0 3.0
1.0
of Californians were 65 and older, compared with only 9 percent in 1970. By 2030, that share will be 19 percent.
2.0
0 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Monthly Precipitation
Dec
There is a tendency of precipitation lowering than normal condition. Surface water can hardly meet overall irrigation need.
2016
2017
The total number of adults 65 and older is projected to grow from 5.5 million in 2017 to 9.1 million in 2030.
1.5
The number of seniors in every major racial/ethnic group will increase by 2030 and no ethnic group will compose
1.0
a majority of the senior population.
0.5
Approximate location of maximum subsidence in the United States identified by Dr. Joseph F. Poland. San Joaquin Valley southwest of Mendota, California.
California’s population is aging.
0
2018
In the future, Carlifornia is facing a climate condition of getting warmer. Annual precipitation cannot fully supply enough surface water for irrigation, thus groundwater becomes a significant source for farming irrigation. In this context, high demand for groundwater lowers groudn level amd causes serve subsidence, which directly impeded the development of agriculture. Meanwhile digging wells also aggravate this issue.
Even though California’s population is the seventh-youngest in the country, it is aging rapidly. In 2017, 14 percent
2.5
Normal Precipitation
Subsidence decreases farming sustainability.
Moderate
EXtreme Weather ‘Whiplash’
Del Norte 2,600
7,800
50 0
2060-2080
50 40
10 8
0.5% 5% 50% 67%
30
6
20
4
10
2
0 1950
2000
8°F 7°F
74
Medium
68 66 64
Marin
2100
2050
16,000
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) adopted a set of emissions scenarios known as ‘representative concentration pathways’, or RCPs. These are a set of four future pathways, named for the associated radiative forcing (the globally veraged heat trapping capacity of the atmosphere measured in watts/square meter) level in 2100 relative to pre-industrial values: RCP 8.5, 6.0, 4.5 and 2.6 . RCP 8.5 is consistent with a future in which there are no significant global efforts to limit or reduce emissions. RCP 2.6 is a stringent emissions reduction scenario and assumes that global greenhouse gas emissions will be significantly curtailed. Under this scenario, global CO2 emissions decline by about 70% between 2015 and 2050, to zero by 2080, and below zero thereafter.
50 2080-2100
2100 111.9-123.8
High
9.2
3.3
3.1
AMADOR
LAKE
EL DORADO
1.7
1.2
MIGRATING WESTWARD
POPULATION SHRINKING
$60.7k
$68.5k
$75.4k
$87.7k
$101.1k
0
0
0.4
0.7
1.8
7.8 7 6.8
1
6.2
ILLINOIS NEW JERSEY MICHIGAN FLORIDA ALASKA PENNSYLVANIA CONNECTICUT MARYLAND WISCONSIN MINNESOTA HAWAII ALABAMA DELAWARE OHIO D.C.
CHNAGE IN POPULATION
Less than 100,000
Less than 0
100,000 to 499,999
0 to 0.9
500,000 to 3 million
More than 1.0
More than 3 million
From 2006 until 2016, the state lost a net population of about 1 million people from domestic emigration; the plurality of whom moved to Texas, yet the population of the state continued to grow due to immigration from overseas.
1,000 to 15,000 More than 15,000
MONTANA
OREGON
NET DOMESTIC MIGRATION Less than -10,000 -11,001 to -10,000 0 to -1,000
2010
More than 1,000
´,7·6 285 ',11(5 721,*+7 µ
1970
POPULATION RATIO BETWEEN 1970 AND 2010 GROWTH RATEBELOW STATE AVERAGE GROWTH RATE ABOVE STATE AVERAGE
100,000
IDAHO
UTAH MAINE NORTH DAKOTA WEST VIRGINIA MASSACHUSETTS VERMONT RHODE ISLAND NEW HAMPSHIRE LOUISIANA MISSISSIPPI MISSOURI INDIANA WYOMING SOUTH DAKOTA KENTUCKY NEW MEXICO NEBRASKA ARKANSAS IOWA SOUTH CAROLINA MONTANA KANSAS VIRGINIA TENNESSEE NORTH CAROLINA GEORGIA OKLAHOMA IDAHO UTAH WASHINGTON OREGON NEVADA ARIZONA
0 to 1,000
RIVERSIDE
6
7
POPULATION DISTRIBUTION $52.9k
Less than 1,000
SAN BERNADINO
1
13.
13.3
14
14.9
15
15.1
15.2
16.1
15.8
15.3
9
$46.9k
NET IMMIGRATION
6 8.8
9.7
9.7
12.9
15.7
9.7
OutFlow
SAN BENITO
15.1
15.4
9.4
InFlow
3.9
4
8
9.1
Good Weather 100+ hectares
MADERA
4.6
14.
9.4
75-100 hectares
MARIPOSA
1.2
14.
9.6
Better Weather
2070-2100 50-75 hectares
CALAVERAS
1.7
2.1
14.
10.9
25-50 hectares
ALPINES
1.2
14
12.4
9,300
Under$150k $200k-300k $400k-500k $600k-700k $800k-900k $150k-200k $300k-400k $500k-600k $700k-800k $900k-1000k
2.4
7.7
6.2
0-25 hectares
Areas burned by wildfires from current time (modeled as 1961-1990), for mid-century (2035-2064), and for latecentury (2070-2100). By the end of the century, California could experience wildfires that burn up to a maximum of 178% more acres per year than current averages.
San Diego
PLACER
2.8
8.2
26000
2035-2064
110,000
SIERRA
NEVADA
4.4
8.8
0
1961-1990
Orange
3.1 3
3.6
3.2
3.3
9.6
14,000
MEDIAN SALES PRICE FOR HOMES
3 192 4 192 5 192 6 192 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1945 194 194 6 194 7 194 8 9
BIRTH DATA NATURE CHANGE ( PER 1000)
197 197 7 197 6 197 5 197 4 1972 3 1971 1970 1969 1968 1967 1966 1965 1964
9.8
Florida Best Weather
Los Angeles
PLUMAS
4.9
0 195 1 195 2 195 3 195 4 195 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963
9.5
WYOMING
vulnerable population 100,000
6.6
9.6
TENNESSEE TEXAS UTAH VERMONT VIRGINIA WASHINGTON WEST VIRGINIA WISCONSIN
Texas
16,000
$40.7k
5.3
10.4
North Carolina
´/(7·6 *2 %2$7,1* µ
Ventura
INCOME AND HOUSING PRICE
5.7
10.4
New York
New Jersey
6,700
vulnerable population 1,000 vulnerable population 10,000
5.9
1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 191 191 8 192 9 192 0 192 1 2
2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 8 200 7 200 6 200 5 200 4 200
10.7
34278 24982
12906
13523
WE GO WITH THE STREAM.
Santa Barbara
80-100 social vulnerability composite score 2pt flood zones
INCOME BY LOCATION
8.4 200 200 3 200 2 200 1 1999 0 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1 198 0 198 9 197 8 197
13
11.4
16141
22469
63174
30919 24611
40-60 social vulnerability composite score
These ice sheets will soon become the primary contributor to global sea-level rise, overtaking the contributions from ocean thermal expansion and melting mountain glaciers and ice caps. Ice loss from Antarctca, and especially from West Antarctica, causes higher sea-level rise in California than the global average: for example, if the loss of West Antarctic ice were to cause global sea-level to rise by 1 foot, the associated sea-level rise in California would be about 1.25 feet.
-0.6
GRADUATE DEGREE
SOME COLLEGE
8.8
ASSOCIATE’S DEGREE
8.7
BACHELOR’S DEGREE
5.7
9
8.7 9 9.6
10.6 11.3 11.9
12.8
10995
Pennsylvania 7968 21162 14509 Virginia
Colorado
Arizona
60-80 social vulnerability composite score
Social Vulnerability
6.6
12.8
27117
Illinois
27014 25038 59233
26907
50-75 hectares area burned by wildfire
Medium
1m
6.1
10
IDAHO ILLINOIS INDIANA IOWA
9925
Utah
NEW YORK
9
8.6 8.4 8.6
8.8
17020
Nevada
WASHINGTON
5.1
8.4
7.6
7.2
6.8
6.5
6.6
6.3
ALABAMA ALASKA ARIZONA ARKANASAS COLORADO CONNECTICUT DELAWARE D.C. FLORIDA GEORGIA HAWAII
75-100+ hectares area burned by wildfire
30m
Sea Level
CENTRAL VALLEY IS GROWING
SLOW POPULATION GROWTH
16046
Idaho 23768
14,000
erience Extreme Heat
KANSAS KENTUCKY LOUISIANA MAINE MARYLAND MASSSACHUSETTS MICHIGAN MISSISSIPPI MISSOURI MINNESOTA MONTANA NEBRASKA NEVADA NEW HAMPSHIRE NEW JERSEY NEW MEXICO NEW YORK NORTH CAROLINA NORTH DAKOTA OHIO OKLAHOMA OREGON PENNSYLVANIA RHODE ISLAND SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTH DAKOTA
5626 47513 Oregon
Projections of Wildfire
Monterey
10ft sea level rise threaten areas sea level rise threaten areas
LOWER-EDUCATION OURFLOW
21372
40999
than Historical Average
200
0
Washington
Climate models and basic physics suggest that atmospheric rivers will become moister and more intense in the future, as a warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor (about 4% more for every degree 1°F of warming). The UCLA study also found that over the next 40 years, the state will be 300 to 400 percent more likely to have a prolonged storm sequence as severe as the one that caused a now-legendary California flood more than 150 years ago.
San Cruz
Average Daily High Temperature Warmer
150 100 Apr
2080 108.0-109.7 109.7-111.9
50109
If greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated, key glaciological processes could cross thresholds that lead to rapidly accelerating and effectively irreversible ice loss. Aggressive reductions in greenhouse gas emissions may substantially reduce but do not eliminate the risk to California of extreme sea-level rise from Antarctic ice loss. Moreover, current observations of Antarctic melt rates cannot rule out the potential for extreme sealevel rise in the future, because the processes that could drive extreme Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat later in the century are different from the processes driving loss now.
San Mateo 110,000
2010
Wetland
Wet
1,500
39,000
San Francisco 10,000
62 60
0
Projections of Sea Level Rise
CITATION California’s biggest migration deficits had a Western flair. The No. 1 state for net outmigration was Arizona, which added 32,326 more Californians that who departed for the Golden State. No. 2 was Oregon, 29,561 more Californians in than losses to the Golden State. Next in the rankings came moves between Nevada, with California outmigration of 23,745; Texas (22,175); Washington (19,341); and Idaho (15,746). Comparing with the best weather that most people feel, it could project what state that the californians will depart to. Texas,Arizona,Florida, as well as the other countries might be the best choices for climate change refuges.
Natural Vegetation
20548 Napa
72 70
5°F 4°F 3°F
1°F
2100
2050
6°F
2°F
0 1900
350 300
NO HIGH SCHOOL
Riverside
Developed
1,200
250 May
13
HIGH SCHOOL GRAD
50 ~ 149.9%
Agriculture
Heat-Health Events (HHEs), which predict heat risk to local vulnerable populations, will worsen drastically throughout the state by mid-century. The Central Valley is projected to experience average HHEs that are up to two weeks long, and HHEs could occur four to ten times more often in the North Sierra region.
Sonoma
moderate rate current rate current emmission scenario emmission
Mt CO2 eq
100
Temperature Warmer
150
Jun
H++ RCP 8.5 RCP 2.6 RCP Historiacal Current
Sea-level rise (ft)
250 200
Jul
Projected average rates (mm/year)
Aug
42.8
27.2
SOME HIGH SCHOOL
150 ~ 199.9%
Projections ofLands in Flood
100-year Flood 500-year Flood
Increasing acreage burned by wildfire is associated with increasing air temperatures. One Fourth Assessment model suggests large wildfires (greater than 25,000 acres) could become 50% more frequent by the end of century if emissions are not reduced. The model produces more years with extremely high areas burned, even compared to the historically destructive wildfires of 2017 and 2018.
Humboldt
50 2040-2060
Projections of Flood Areas
Dry
200
100
Sep
0
-53000
200 ~ 299.9%
50 ~ 99.9% Under 50%
MIGRATION PROJECTION IN 2150
UNPACKING DROUGHT AND DELUGE
150
106.6-108.0
Over 400% 300 ~ 399.9%
100 ~ 149.9%
High
EXTREME CLIMATE IN 2150
SEA LEVEL RISE THREATEN THE CALIFORNIANS
250
Oct
2060
Age 85 and Over
Over 200% 150 ~ 299.9%
Low
54.1
Temperature Range(°F)
$&7,9(" 3$66,9(" San Bernardino
Shortage of Care Providers
Great Extreme
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec
INCREASING TEMPERATURE- SEA LEVEL RISE
2040
Age 60 and Over
Subsidence Projection 2010-2099
Similar to Historical Above Historical
2060
Percentage Increase of Elderly Population 2010 - 2060
“WATCH OUT DRIVING!”
-1.3 ~ -0.4
1.5
0.5
2020
> 410
-2.9 ~ -1.3
0.5
2012
Similar to Historical
50 ~ 100
-5.0 ~ -2.9
1.0
2.0
25
-7.5 ~ -5.0
1.5
2.5
Surface River Elevation Change 2013-2018 (ft)
0
100,000
200,000
COLORADO VIRGINIA
NEVADA
KANSAS NORTH CAROLINA TENNESSEE OKLAHOMA GEORGIA
TEXAS ARIZONA
TEXAS -300,000
Although California generally has been losing residents to the rest of the country, movement between California and some states deviates from this pattern. The figure below shows net migration between California and individual states between 2007 and 2016. California gained, on net, residents from about one-third of states, led by New York, Illinois, and New Jersey. On the flip side, top destinations for those leaving California were Texas, Arizona, Nevada, and Oregon.
SLAVE OF GOLD.
1 Climate Change Refuges Brandon Miller：Climate change could leave Californians with 'weather whiplash' https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/23/us/climate-change-california-whiplash-wxc/index.html 2 Increasing temperature-public health Kristin Ralff Douglas：California in 2050: Some Sizzling Predictions http://www.cpuc.ca.gov/uploadedFiles/CPUC_Public_Website/Content/About_Us/ Organization/Divisions/Policy_and_Planning/PPD_Work_Products_(2014_forward)(1)/CaFutureUnderClimateChange.pdf 3 Increasing temperature-sea level OPC-SAT： Rising Seas in California： AN UPDATE ON SEA-LEVEL RISE SCIENCE http://www.opc.ca.gov/webmaster/ftp/pdf/docs/rising-seas-in-california-an-update-on-sea-level-rise-science.pdf 4 Sea level rise threaten the Californians S urging Seas: Risk Zone Map https://ss2.climatecentral.org/#12/40.7297/-74.0070?show=satellite&projections=0-K14_RCP85-SLR&level=5&unit=feet&pois=hide 5 Extreme Climate in 2150 ic-coast California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment：California's Changing Climate 2018 http://www.climateassessment.ca.gov/state/docs/20180827-SummaryBrochure.pdf FEMA Flood Map Service Center https://msc.fema.gov/portal/search?AddressQuery=Sacramento#searchresultsanchor USGS Map service: Coastal Vulnerability to Sea-Level Ris https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/usgs-map-service-coastal-vulnerability-to-sea-level-rise https://www.energy.ca.gov/2012publications/CEC-500-2012-013/CEC500-2012-013.pdf 6 Unpacking drought and deluge California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment：California's Changing Climate 2018 http://www.climateassessment.ca.gov/state/docs/20180827-SummaryBrochure.pdf Kirk Klausmeyer, Megan Webb：California's Flood Risk: Green Solutions for an Uncertain Future green-solutions Migration projection in 2150 Liz Osborn：Top 10 US States With the Best Weather All Year Round https://www.currentresults.com/Weather/top-10-us-states-with-best-weather.php Jonathan Lansnerc：California migration: What states got the most who left? Who moved here? https://www.ocregister.com/2018/12/05/mapped-where-docalifornians-move-to-what-states-do-they-come-from/ 7 Changing California Demographic Structure Public Policy Institute of California, California's Future in Population https://www.ppic.org/publication/californias-future-population/ Public Policy Institute of California, California's Future in Economy https://www.ppic.org/publication/californias-future-economy/ 8 Aging California Public Policy Institute of California, California's Future in Population https://www.ppic.org/publication/californias-future-population/ 9 Shortage of Irrigation Public Policy Institute of California, California's Future in Climate Change https://www.ppic.org/publication/californias-future-climate-change/ Nature Research, Projecting groundwater storage changes in California’s Central Vall https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-31210-1 The Groundwater Foundation, What is Groundwater? https://www.groundwater.org/get-informed/basics/groundwater.html U.S. Climate Data, Monthly Climate Data in California https://www.usclimatedata.com/climate/fresno/california/united-states/usca2234/2014/12 10 Subsidence Tendency Colorado Geological Survey, Ground Subsidence http://coloradogeologicalsurvey.org/geologic-hazards/ground-subsidence/ Subsidence Decrease Farming Sustainability California Department of Water Resource, ,Natural Communities Commonly Associated with Groundwater (NCCAG) Dataset Viewer https://gis.water.ca.gov/app/NCDatasetViewer/ California Department of Water Resource, Water Management Planning Tool https://gis.water.ca.gov/app/boundaries/ California Department of Water Resource, SGMA Data Viewer https://sgma.water.ca.gov/webgis/?appid=SGMADataViewer
USGS, Conjunctive Use in Response to Potential Climate Changes in the Central Valley, California https://ca.water.usgs.gov/projects/central-valley/climate.html 11 Unpacking Subsidence California Department of Water Resource, ,Natural Communities Commonly Associated with Groundwater (NCCAG) Dataset Viewer https://gis.water. ca.gov/app/NCDatasetViewer/ USGS, Central Valley: Drought Indicators https://ca.water.usgs.gov/land_subsidence/central-valley-subsidence-data.html 12 Migration Pattern Public Policy Institute of California, California's Future in Health Care https://www.ppic.org/publication/californias-future-health-care/ California's Department of Aging, Data & Statistics - Facts About California's Elderly https://www.aging.ca.gov/data_and_statistics/facts_about_elderly/ 13 Golden Coins Timeline San Joaquin Valley Demographic Forecasts Final%2027%20Mar%202012_0.pdf 13 High income accumulation California Losing Residents Via Domestic Migration https://lao.ca.gov/laoecontax/article/detail/265 California Losing Residents Via Domestic Migration https://lao.ca.gov/laoecontax/article/detail/265 15 Slow population growth Demographics of California https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_California#Population 16 Central Valley is growing GeoCurrents Maps of the USA: Regions of California: Central Valley http://www.geocurrents.info/gc-maps/geocurrents-maps-by-country/geocurrentsmaps-of-the-usa 17 Population shrinking "California’s senior population is growing faster than any other age group. How the next governor responds is crucial By MELANIE MASON, Graphics by ELLIS SIMANI and PRIYA KRISHNAKUMAR" https://www.latimes.com/projects/la-pol-ca-next-california-demographics/ 18 Migration Westward Data USA: California 19 History Time Line In a State of Migration, A Brief History of Californian Migration https://medium.com/migration-issues/a-brief-history-of-californian-migration-7fe7653ca0d Digital Schlarship in University of Richmond, Foreign -Born Population1850-2010 http://dsl.richmond.edu/panorama/foreignborn/#decade=2010 Fresno demographic
https://www.census.gov/data.html
AS 6,0,/$7,21"
60
AS SIMILATION?