Long Trends—Expansion and State Power

Long Trends—Expansion and State Power

Lecture 33

By 5,000 years ago, by 3000 B.C.E., there were probably about 50 million people on Earth. Now, what this means is that in the early Agrarian era, human populations had multiplied by about 10 times. Then by 1,000 years ago, at the end of the later Agrarian era, there may have been about 250 million people on Earth.

The previous lecture described some general features of Agrarian civilizations. The next three lectures ask: How did Agrarian civilizations change during the 4,000 years of the later Agrarian era? They focus on Afro-Eurasia, the largest and most in uential of the four world zones. This lecture describes two ways in which Agrarian civilizations in Afro-Eurasia expanded during almost 4,000 years. First, Agrarian civilizations occupied larger areas and incorporated more people. Second, as rulers got more skillful at their craft, and knowledge of “governance” accumulated within elite groups, the power and reach of states increased.

In the course of 4,000 years, Agrarian civilizations spread to incorporate most of the population of the Afro-Eurasian world zone. Five thousand years ago (in 3000 B.C.E.), Agrarian civilization existed only in Sumer and Egypt. Four thousand years ago (in 2000 B.C.E.), Agrarian civilizations also existed in the north of the Indian subcontinent and along the Yellow River in northern China. By 2,000 years ago, Agrarian civilizations were also ourishing around the Mediterranean basin, in southern China, and in parts of Southeast Asia. By 1,000 years ago, Agrarian civilizations had spread to sub-Saharan Africa, and to both western and eastern Europe.

Estonian American scholar Rein Taagepera has tried to quantify these changes by estimating the areas included within states in “megameters.” A megameter is approximately the size of modern Egypt. Though very approximate, these calculations do seem to indicate some clear trends. In 3000 B.C.E., states controlled just 0.2 megameters, which is almost 0.2% of the area of AfroEurasia that is controlled by modern states. (Today, of course, states control virtually the entire landmass of Afro-Eurasia, so this is a reminder of how

exotic and unusual the rst Agrarian civilizations were when they appeared.) In 1000 B.C.E., Agrarian civilizations controlled almost 2.5 megameters (about 2% of the area of Afro-Eurasia that is controlled by modern states). By 1 C.E., with the appearance of huge empires in Persia, China, and the Mediterranean, Agrarian civilizations covered 8 megameters (about 6% of the area under modern states, and about 40 times the area controlled by the very rst states). By 1000 C.E., Agrarian civilizations covered about 16 megameters, which is still only about 13% of the area controlled by modern states.

What do these gures suggest? First, they imply population growth. Agrarian civilizations included the most ourishing and productive regions on Earth, so they were the regions in which populations grew most rapidly, and their growth is therefore a key ingredient in the growth of world populations. Ten thousand years ago there were 5–6 million people on Earth. By 5,000 years ago, there were about 50 million people, so the population had multiplied by about 10 times in the 5,000 years of the early Agrarian era. By 1,000 years ago, there were about 250 million people on Earth, so the population had multiplied by about 5 times in the 4,000 years of the later Agrarian era. These gures suggest that, though populations continued to grow in the later Agrarian era, they grew no faster than in the early Agrarian era. Taagepera’s gures also remind us that even quite recently many people in Afro-Eurasia still lived outside Agrarian civilizations, in small communities of pastoralists, foragers, or independent peasants. However, Taagepera’s gures also chart a fundamental transformation in human history because they suggest that within just 4,000 years most humans on Earth lived within Agrarian civilizations. Agrarian civilizations had become the normal type of community for human beings in Afro-Eurasia (and probably throughout the world).

The area under Agrarian civilizations expanded, in part, because tributary rulers learned to control larger areas. In 3000 B.C.E., states were novelties, and their rulers were unsure of the best ways of managing such vast and complex communities. Over 4,000 years, their political, military, and economic skills improved, and so did their reach and power. The basic challenge was to maximize the resources rulers extracted from populations consisting mainly of small-holding peasants. We call resources extracted in

this way “tributes,” to contrast them with “gifts” (which are given freely) and “pro ts” (which are generated through exchanges in competitive markets). The trick was to maximize resource extraction without exhausting the capacity of peasants to keep paying.

Roughly speaking, we can track increasing power by charting the increasing size of states. Rein Taagepera has estimated changes in the areas controlled by particular states. His calculations highlight four main eras in the expansion of state power. The rst city-states covered tiny areas. Uruk covered about 2.5 square kilometers (a tiny fraction of 1 megameter), though its rulers also controlled nearby villages. The rst Mesopotamian state to include several city-states, that of Sargon of Akkad (2371–2316 B.C.E.), may have controlled 0.6 megameters. In the 2nd millennium B.C.E., the largest states—those of Egypt at its height and Shang China—controlled about 1 megameter of territory, and most controlled much less. So 1 megameter seems to have been a rough upper limit for empires formed before the 1st millennium B.C.E. The Persian Achaemenid Empire, founded by Cyrus II in 560 B.C.E., marks a sudden increase in the size of large states. It covered about 5.5 megameters. For the next 1,500 years, the largest states ranged from about 4 megameters (the Roman Empire) to about 10 megameters (the earliest Islamic empires). In the last 1,500 years, much bigger empires have appeared, starting with the Mongol Empire, which brie y controlled about 24 megameters. These estimates hide eras of collapse and decline, such as the decline of Mesopotamian states early in the 2nd millennium through ecological collapse. Nevertheless, with the bene t of hindsight the long trend toward increasing state power is unmistakable.

How did states expand their power and reach? Rulers increased their military authority partly by recruiting larger armies and equipping them with increasingly sophisticated weapons, such as chariots and siege weapons. Some of the more important innovations, particularly in cavalry warfare, came from the pastoral nomads of the Eurasian steppes. Road building and the establishment of courier or post-horse systems allowed rulers to send armies, supplies, and messages over large distances. We have a wonderful description by Herodotus of the Persian “Royal Road” built between 550 and 486 B.C.E. between southern Persia and modern Turkey. As bureaucracies expanded, they became more effective at managing tax collection over large

areas by supervising the activities of local power brokers. The Achaemenid Empire, for example, set quotas in silver for each of its main provinces, and police spies checked up on tax collection. States also developed subtler ways of mobilizing resources. As their reach increased, states created large zones of relative stability within which peasants and merchants ourished, so both populations and available resources increased. In such times, the interests of rulers, peasants, and merchants came closest together, and the most farsighted rulers understood that protecting the interests of those they ruled was often the most effective way of generating taxable wealth. Rulers became increasingly adept at using tributes: rst, to bind the ruling elites together through the sharing of privilege; and second, to overawe their subjects by displays of power such as military triumphs or the building of religious monuments that displayed their closeness to the gods. This lecture has surveyed the spread of Agrarian civilizations and their increasing power over almost 4,000 years. The next lectures will ask about rates of innovation in the later Agrarian era. Did Agrarian civilizations encourage or discourage the capacity for innovation that is such a distinctive feature of our species?

Rulers increased their military authority partly by recruiting larger armies and equipping them with increasingly sophisticated weapons, such as chariots and siege weapons.

Essential Reading

Supplementary Reading

Brown, Big History, chaps. 6, 7. Christian, Maps of Time, chap. 10.

Taagepera, “Size and Duration of Empires.” For details on particular civilizations, see Bentley and Ziegler, Traditions and Encounters; and Fernandez-Armesto, The World.

Questions to Consider

1. What evidence is there that, broadly speaking, the power of tribute-taking states increased in the 4,000 years after the appearance of the rst states?

2. What new techniques and methods enhanced the power and reach of

Agrarian states?