Long Trends—Expansion and State Power Lecture 33
By 5,000 years ago, by 3000 B.C.E., there were probably about 50 million people on Earth. Now, what this means is that in the early Agrarian era, human populations had multiplied by about 10 times. Then by 1,000 years ago, at the end of the later Agrarian era, there may have been about 250 million people on Earth.
Lecture 33: Long Trends—Expansion and State Power
T
he previous lecture described some general features of Agrarian civilizations. The next three lectures ask: How did Agrarian civilizations change during the 4,000 years of the later Agrarian era? They focus on Afro-Eurasia, the largest and most inÀuential of the four world zones. This lecture describes two ways in which Agrarian civilizations in Afro-Eurasia expanded during almost 4,000 years. First, Agrarian civilizations occupied larger areas and incorporated more people. Second, as rulers got more skillful at their craft, and knowledge of “governance” accumulated within elite groups, the power and reach of states increased. In the course of 4,000 years, Agrarian civilizations spread to incorporate most of the population of the Afro-Eurasian world zone. Five thousand years ago (in 3000 B.C.E.), Agrarian civilization existed only in Sumer and Egypt. Four thousand years ago (in 2000 B.C.E.), Agrarian civilizations also existed in the north of the Indian subcontinent and along the Yellow River in northern China. By 2,000 years ago, Agrarian civilizations were also Àourishing around the Mediterranean basin, in southern China, and in parts of Southeast Asia. By 1,000 years ago, Agrarian civilizations had spread to sub-Saharan Africa, and to both western and eastern Europe. Estonian American scholar Rein Taagepera has tried to quantify these changes by estimating the areas included within states in “megameters.” A megameter is approximately the size of modern Egypt. Though very approximate, these calculations do seem to indicate some clear trends. In 3000 B.C.E., states controlled just 0.2 megameters, which is almost 0.2% of the area of AfroEurasia that is controlled by modern states. (Today, of course, states control virtually the entire landmass of Afro-Eurasia, so this is a reminder of how 150
