The Medieval Malthusian Cycle, 500–1350

The Medieval Malthusian Cycle, 500–1350

Lecture 39

As in all Malthusian cycles, growth began with innovations that stimulated population growth. New technologies included improved strains of rice in China and improved plows and yokes in Europe.

When did the Modern Revolution really begin? The next two lectures tackle this question using the ideas sketched out in the previous lecture. They will survey world history over the last 1,500 years through two “Malthusian cycles” to see if we can detect elements of modernity falling into place. This lecture describes the medieval Malthusian cycle, which lasted from about 500 C.E. to about 1350 C.E.— from the decline of the Roman and Han empires to the time of the Black Death. We will focus on Afro-Eurasia, the largest and most signi cant of the four world zones and the region that drove change in the early stages of the Modern Revolution.

We will focus on the central problem of accelerating innovation. Consequently, we will keep our eyes on three crucial drivers of innovation: commercialization, the spread of capitalism, and a rapid expansion in the extent of exchange networks. Can we detect any evidence of an increase in the importance of these drivers of innovation? Did commercialization raise productivity by encouraging specialization and innovation? Did entrepreneurial activity and wage earning (two key features of capitalism) become more important, and if so, did they accelerate innovation? Did exchange networks expand, and if so, did they stimulate commercial activity and information exchanges?

Second, we will look for signs of a shift in wealth and power to a new hub region, around the Atlantic. Can we detect the beginnings of this shift? Third, we must note one more crucial factor: “accumulation.” During the 4,000 years of the later Agrarian era, despite many uctuations, populations increased, markets expanded, and new technologies emerged in much of the world. Without this slow accumulation of skills and resources, the Modern Revolution could not possibly have occurred.

The medieval Malthusian cycle ran from about 500 C.E. to 1350 C.E. Population graphs show the overall shape of the cycle, as populations slowly rose throughout Eurasia from the middle of the millennium before crashing in the middle of the 14th century. Commerce developed so quickly during this cycle that historian Robert Lopez claimed there was a “commercial revolution” in the later Middle Ages.

Populations grew fastest in regions such as South China or eastern Europe that had previously been underpopulated frontier regions. Population growth stimulated commerce, urbanization, and cultural ef orescence. The number and size of cities increased throughout Eurasia. Baghdad and Cairo were among the largest cities in the Muslim lands that dominated the Eurasian heartland; but by the end of the cycle, China was probably the most urbanized region in the world. Hangzhou, the capital of the Southern Song dynasty in China, may have been the world’s largest city, with at least a million inhabitants.

Trade networks reached further than ever before. Muslims dominated the silk roads, but Europeans were increasingly active. By 1300, the Vikings had reached Iceland, Greenland, and North America (where they established a short-lived colony in Newfoundland in 1000 C.E.), while Venetian traders such as Marco Polo had reached China.

Capitalism ourished as wage earning and entrepreneurial activity expanded. Everywhere, peasants made up most of the population. Yet in many regions, peasants were sucked into capitalist networks. Government demands to pay taxes in cash, land shortages, indebtedness, and the need to buy goods on markets, all forced peasants to earn cash. They earned money by selling surplus produce, by selling goods such as textiles manufactured in the household, or by seeking wagework as laborers or in nearby towns. In such an environment, entrepreneurs ourished. Their power was particularly striking at the edges of the great empires, in Southeast Asia, or the Mediterranean,

Commerce developed so quickly during this cycle that historian Robert Lopez claimed there was a “commercial revolution” in the later Middle Ages.

where powerful small trading states ourished. Some, such as Venice, were ruled by merchants.

The history of Song China (960–1279) illustrates the transformative power of these changes. Since it was rst uni ed in 221 B.C.E., China had been the very epitome of a traditional Agrarian era tribute-taking empire. Its rulers controlled huge revenues produced mostly from the land, and like most Agrarian elites, they despised commerce even though markets were vital to the Chinese economy.

In the 10th century, northern China was conquered by dynasties originating in Manchuria and Tibet. Suddenly, China was divided into three large warring states. Con ned to the south, rulers from the Song dynasty faced huge defensive problems and shrinking revenues, so they had to seek revenues from new sources, including commerce. In just 200 years, the share of revenues from foreign trade rose from 2% to 20%. Not surprisingly, the Song began to back traders and encourage trade.

As our model predicts, in such a highly commercialized environment, innovation accelerated. In a now-classic study, Marc Elvin described the remarkable acceleration of innovation in this era. There were innovations in agriculture (including the introduction of new strains of rice from Vietnam, with active government support), in manufacturing (government factories produced 32,000 suits of armor each year in the late 11th century), and in weaponry (this was when gunpowder rst began to be used in war). Was China perhaps on the verge of an early industrial revolution? Particularly striking were advances in naval technology in this period. These would make possible an astonishing series of state-sponsored voyages to India, Arabia, and Africa in the early 15th century, under the command of the Muslim admiral and eunuch Zheng He. In 1279, a Mongol dynasty, the Yuan, reunited China under a ruler named Kublai Khan, and in 1368 the Yuan were overthrown by a new Chinese dynasty, the Ming. With fewer rivals and a much larger tax base, government practice slowly reverted to the anticommercial, tributetaking methods of earlier times, and governments stopped backing commerce and trade. The Ming even tried to ban foreign trade.

Innovation slowed partly because reunited Chinese governments had less need to support commerce, and partly because the world was, as yet, too disconnected for innovations to spread rapidly (though some, such as gunpowder and the compass, did diffuse slowly across Eurasia).

In the mid-14th century, the medieval Malthusian cycle ended in a crash that affected most of Eurasia. Overpopulation and malnutrition were widespread before the plague spread from China, through Central Asia, to the Mediterranean world. In many regions, it killed off a third of the population. The crash suggests that rates of innovation, though impressive in some regions, were not yet rapid enough to match population growth, so the Malthusian pattern would continue. In 1350, the main structures of Agrarian civilizations, including tribute-taking elites and peasant farmers, remained rmly in place, and Eurasia was still dominated by the traditional hub regions.

Though commerce, capitalism, and international exchanges ourished during the medieval Malthusian cycle, they could not yet overcome the technological inertia of Agrarian civilizations. The next lecture surveys changes during the “early Modern Malthusian cycle,” which lasted from about 1350 to 1700 C.E.

Essential Reading

Supplementary Reading

Bentley and Ziegler, Traditions and Encounters, chaps. 15, 17, 18, 20. Christian, Maps of Time, chap. 12. Fernandez-Armesto, The World, chaps. 10, 12, 13, 14.

Abu-Lughod, Before European Hegemony. Elvin, The Pattern of the Chinese Past. McNeill, Plagues and Peoples.

Questions to Consider

1. What were the most important changes during the medieval

Malthusian cycle?

2. What reasons are there for concluding that the world in 1500 had not yet crossed the threshold into modernity?