The Medieval Malthusian Cycle, 500–1350 Lecture 39
As in all Malthusian cycles, growth began with innovations that stimulated population growth. New technologies included improved strains of rice in China and improved plows and yokes in Europe.
Lecture 39: The Medieval Malthusian Cycle, 500–1350
W
hen did the Modern Revolution really begin? The next two lectures tackle this question using the ideas sketched out in the previous lecture. They will survey world history over the last 1,500 years through two “Malthusian cycles” to see if we can detect elements of modernity falling into place. This lecture describes the medieval Malthusian cycle, which lasted from about 500 C.E. to about 1350 C.E.— from the decline of the Roman and Han empires to the time of the Black Death. We will focus on Afro-Eurasia, the largest and most signi¿cant of the four world zones and the region that drove change in the early stages of the Modern Revolution. We will focus on the central problem of accelerating innovation. Consequently, we will keep our eyes on three crucial drivers of innovation: commercialization, the spread of capitalism, and a rapid expansion in the extent of exchange networks. Can we detect any evidence of an increase in the importance of these drivers of innovation? Did commercialization raise productivity by encouraging specialization and innovation? Did entrepreneurial activity and wage earning (two key features of capitalism) become more important, and if so, did they accelerate innovation? Did exchange networks expand, and if so, did they stimulate commercial activity and information exchanges? Second, we will look for signs of a shift in wealth and power to a new hub region, around the Atlantic. Can we detect the beginnings of this shift? Third, we must note one more crucial factor: “accumulation.” During the 4,000 years of the later Agrarian era, despite many Àuctuations, populations increased, markets expanded, and new technologies emerged in much of the world. Without this slow accumulation of skills and resources, the Modern Revolution could not possibly have occurred. 180
