Saturday Onsite Presentation Session 1 Comparative Studies of Asian and East Asian Studies

Session Chair: Shuqi Wang

09:30-09:55

70001 | The Role of China’s Local Governments in Pan-Yellow Sea Cooperation

Jing Xie, Waseda University, Japan

This research examines the role of local governments in China's foreign affairs. It depicts how local governments build frameworks at the local level to maintain and promote economic cooperation, even when bilateral relations at the national level become strained. This is demonstrated through an analysis of the efforts of Shandong and Liaoning provinces in the Pan Yellow Sea cooperation, despite ups and downs in SinoJapanese relations, and their further impact on the initiation of the China-Japan-Korea FTA negotiation. The research challenges previous assumptions that local governments in China play a purely subordinate role in foreign affairs and argues that their role has been underestimated. Driven by their local interests, local governments in China may act independently from the central government's policy or strategy, shaping facts on the ground and influencing the central in a bottom-up manner. The study contributes to the understanding of China's complex and evolving foreign policy landscape by highlighting the critical role of local governments in shaping China's relations with foreign countries.

09:55-10:20

67183 | Examining the South China Sea Dispute With Morphological Analysis

Zachary Lavengood, Charles University, Czech Republic

The South China Sea is among the most volatile flashpoints in contemporary international relations as littoral claimants dispute ownership over a number of small islands and geographic features spread across more than three million square kilometers. This study examines the dispute using the general morphological analysis (GMA) methodology employing eight factors of analysis: Chinese political stability, crossstrait relations, Chinese economic stability, ASEAN cohesion, extra-regional actor involvement (diplomacy & power projection capabilities), ASEAN sentiment towards China, and island building programs. These produced 65,536 distinct outcomes in a cross-consistency matrix (CCM) which exist on a spectrum of possibility from incompatible with reality to plausible. Three plausible scenarios were chosen for foresight analysis which project contemporary trends into the near-to-mid term future envisioning Chinese dominion over the South China Sea, the effect of political unrest in China on the dispute, and dispute stagnation. After the analysis of hundreds of different combinations from the CCM which remained after auditing for analytical noise and plausibility, this research found that much of the foresight produced scenarios which were similar to the ‘dispute stagnation’ scenario. This highlights the present realities of the dispute wherein all parties have entrenched into their political and physical positions with little alternative outside of direct confrontation, an outcome which though possible is unappealing to claimants due to the secondary effects which it would bring.

10:20-10:45

68490 | China’s Global Maritime Expansion: Between Its Grand Dream and External Trends

Najla Alzarooni, Trends Research and Advisory, United Arab Emirates

China’s dream to become a global maritime power is a controversial element of China’s global growth. Its expansion of maritime lines has been influenced by internal needs and external trends. The expansion has alarmed the world and raised the uncertainty about China’s potential to become the world maritime power in mid- 21st century. Despite the continuous debates on the risks associated with China’s global maritime expansion, little attention was paid to the Chinese literature, culture, and understanding of being a global maritime power. This presentation analyzes China’s thinking, planning, and constructing of its maritime power. It looks at the geopolitical, commercial, and military application of China’s maritime strategy to become a world power with its celebration of 100 anniversary of the PRC. Internal needs, such as sovereignty threats, energy security, and growing population have pushed China to expand its maritime lines and achieve its grand dream. However, external trends such as destabilized commercial lines, great power competition and external perceptions hindered the process of achieving its dream. An eclectic realist-constructivist assessment of Chinese global maritime accounts is adopted. Whether China has been categorized as a No. 2 or a No. 1 Sea Power, it has been focused on achieving a speedy maritime power’s growth. It aims to construct a new modality of increasing involvement overseas, expanding deterrence lines, and securing wider oceanic checkpoints. Whether it is reimposing the traditional unipolarity or co-shouldering the international maritime responsibility is looked at.

10:45-11:10

67636 | Role Conception in Foreign Policy: Comparing Japan and South Korea on the South China Sea Issue in Mid-2010

Shuqi

Wang, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore

Despite being non-claimants in the South China Sea, Japan and South Korea have deep interests in the region. ASEAN-led frameworks empower them to be players in the South China Sea dispute. The two countries responded differently to this issue in the mid-2010s, however. Japan has been actively involved in the South China Sea dispute and taken positions on many subject matters; whereas South Korea has remained ambiguous and silent despite pressure from the United States. In the context of great power competition, the divergence in the two countries' South China Sea policy is more clearly demonstrated by Japan's link with the United States and South Korea's delink with the United States. Adopting the theoretical approach of role theory, this paper analyzes Japan and South Korea’s role in the South China Sea and explores how role conceptions of policy fields shape their behavior in this area. The comparative study suggests that Japan and South Korea adopt different roles in the South China Sea: Japan is an active agent, seeking to demonstrate its presence in the region; and South Korea is an inactive agent whose motivation lies in keeping a distance from the issue. This finding contributes to the role theory literature on how role conception can affect a state’s behavior in specific situations, and provides a different perspective to understand regional countries’ behavior in the face of power transitions.