CURRENT AFFAIRS
REVISITING THE TRUMP PEACE PLAN B Y D AV I D R . P A R S O N S , I C E J V I C E P R E S I D E N T & S E N I O R S P O K E S M A N
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t first glance the Trump peace plan appeared to have a lot of positive benefits for Israel, but now I am not so sure it would be a change for the better.
US President Donald Trump’s “vision” for peace certainly marked a welcome reversal of the trend of recent decades whereby the international community slowly whittled away at Israel’s rights and positions in the peace process. Whereas Israel was increasingly pressured to offer the Palestinians up to 100% of the West Bank for a Palestinian state, Trump’s plan dropped back to only 70%. And even with that, Israel would retain overall security control from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea, and no settlements would be forcibly uprooted. The Palestinians also would have to meet some steep preconditions to qualify for statehood – e.g., disarm Hamas, accept a demilitarized state, end the ‘pay-for-slay’ welfare benefits for terrorists, and educate for peace.
now under full Israeli civil and security control, where all the settlements and most of the main roads are located. Yet Netanyahu is determined to procure the Jordan Valley, to create a security buffer between the Palestinians and Jordan, and that region already accounts for almost 20% of the 30% Israel is allowed to claim. On the conceptual map, the remaining ten percent is quickly consumed by solidifying Israel’s foothold around Jerusalem and the major settlement blocs of Ariel, Gush Etzion and the Binyamin region. As a result, little is left to secure the futures of some 15 significant settlements in northern Samaria and southern Judea. The conceptual map shows these 15 towns completely cut off from each other, and each one accessing the rest of Israel via single, narrow corridors completely surrounded by the proposed Palestinian state. The Trump plan would also impose a building freeze in those 15 settlements for the four years of proposed talks with the Palestinians.
But with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowing to extend sovereignty to parts of Judea/Samaria this summer, many have taken a closer look at the Trump plan and are having second thoughts. To find out why, I joined a recent tour of the northern Shomron and spoke with local Jewish community leaders there. DO THE MATH! These settlement leaders said they prefer the status quo to the unpredictable consequences of the Trump plan, as all the Israeli communities in Judea/Samaria currently can access each other and Israel proper with ease. Israelis and Palestinians peacefully share the same main roads every day because the IDF is in control of them. This includes Highway 60, the primary north-south artery which runs from Hebron to Nablus.
So although the Trump plan would not force the dismantlement of any settlements, it would leave some of them so isolated, frozen and insecure, that they would likely succumb to voluntary evacuation. As one settler leader put it, the plan intends for these communities to “dry up.” The result could be a long, slow, painful displacement involving three-to-four times the number of Israeli families uprooted in the 2005 Disengagement from Gaza.
Trump Peace Plan
However, they fear the Trump plan is going to sever Highway 60 in several key places, blocking access to local Israelis. For proof, they point to the “Conceptual Map” released with the Trump plan in January. Although reports suggest the final map is still being worked out by an AmericanIsraeli joint committee, it already reflects the Israeli consensus on which settlements should be kept in any final agreement, and it also follows the Trump plan’s express goal of creating a contiguous Palestinian state. Thus, we should not expect the map to change much. The problem here is in the math. The Trump plan would allow Israel to “annex” up to 30% of Judea/Samaria, being half of the 60% of the West Bank designated as “Area C” under the Oslo accords. These are areas
EXIT RAMPS Above all, many settler leaders and their allies are coming out against the Trump plan simply because it calls for the creation of a Palestinian state. Some are banking on the Palestinians to continue rejecting the Trump plan, as they have always done with conceptual map other peace plans. But others are worried that once Israel starts extending its laws to portions of the disputed territories, the nation will be locked into a process which could lead to a hostile Palestinian state in the heart of Israel. They are hoping the government will insist on clear exit ramps from the process for Israel should the Palestinians not comply with their obligations – which was a major point of weakness of the failed Oslo process. In addition, Israel is only assured of American recognition of its sovereignty in the 30% it annexes, which could easily be reversed by a future US president as early as next January. Meantime, Israel would be widely viewed as having permanently ceded its claim to 70% of the territories and yet will still face the fury of the rest of the world for doing so.
8 | JULY/AUGUST 2020
