2.3 Research methods and data analysis

Zuzek Consulting recommended Option 2-4, Nature-based adaptation following retreat, as “best practice for disaster mitigation and nature-based adaptation” (Zuzek, 2020: 123). Currently however, the Municipality is proceeding with immediate action to repair and upgrade the dike under the Drainage Act, given that emergency dike stabilization is needed and additional shoreline protection or retreat are both likely to be cost-prohibitive (Zuzek, 2020). The estimated combined tax assessed value of the 124 properties along ESD was approximately $20 million in 2019, though due to market fluctuations, there is considerable uncertainty over the true cost of purchasing the properties (Zuzek, 2020). Furthermore, the Municipality would require an additional $33 to $50 million to naturalize the land after home removal (Zuzek, 2020).

With that said, during public consultation meetings and when providing feedback, some ChathamKent residents identified buyouts as a viable option and a missed opportunity to improve coastal resilience (Zuzek, 2020). Additionally, many residents expressed a desire for collaborative, coordinated implementation of planning and management across all levels (Zuzek, 2020).

2.3 Research methods and data analysis

In addition to the literature review, which provided the majority of the study’s data, several (n=6) key informant interviews were carried out to enrich and enlighten themes pulled from the literature. To facilitate multiple opportunities for key informant engagement, two separate recruitment efforts were used: 1) ESD homeowners were contacted via a random mail-out, social media and email; 2) municipal officials and research experts were contacted via email.

The random mail-out cast the broadest net and invited owners to participate in the study. The subset of households selected for the mail-out was derived by first visually examining ESD using Google Maps. From media coverage and visual examination using Google Maps, it was determined that the most flood- and erosion-affected stretch of Erie Shore Drive occurs between Bismet Line and the McGeachy Conservation Area West trail entrance. Only properties on the lakefront side of Erie Shore Drive (i.e. facing south) were considered. The address and postal code for each property was recorded, resulting in a list of 127 properties. Ten properties were then excluded due to lack of visible address or a lack of permanent residence structure (i.e. vacant lots, lots with portable campers and businesses). This population was then cross-referenced against a list of addresses available from Canada Post resulting in a reduced list of 80 properties, from which a random sample of 50 properties was selected using Measurement Canada’s random sampling application (2016).

Random mail-out was determined to be the easiest and most direct way to contact property owners. However, given the partial road closure on ESD, the authors anticipated that mail-outs alone would likely produce an insufficient number of participants. The mail-out was supplemented through email contact with the Erie Shore Drive Property Owner Association and social media groups, inviting residents to participate in the study.

Contact information for expert participants was readily available online, and so email was the primary method of contacting municipal officials and managed retreat experts. Relevant expert participants were identified based on their research experience in managed retreat and/or flood management, or due to their familiarity with the context. Each expert was then invited to participate in the study.

These recruitment efforts generated six participants, consisting of one property owner, a senior municipal official and four experts. Over the course of an approximately one-hour interview, participants answered a number of open-ended questions related to buyout strategies, program benefits and buyout concerns. Given the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, all interviews were conducted virtually using Cisco Web-Ex meeting software. To ensure accurate transcription of the conversation, audio recordings of each interview were made with permission from the participant, and these were then manually transcribed. Following grounded theory as described by Bell & Bryman (2016), each transcript was analyzed by question to identify major themes. Transcripts were coded twice on different dates and then codes were consolidated to ensure consistency across sessions. Accordingly, codes were compared across transcripts to determine common themes relevant to multiple participants.