ICRISAT
Happenings
17 January 2014 No. 1606
In-house Newsletter
Photo: A Tigist, ICRISAT
Teams of climate-crop-economic modelers engaged in conducting the simulations and analyzing results at the 5th AgMIP Eastern Africa regional meet in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
5th AgMIP Eastern Africa regional meet
Assessing the impacts of climate change on farming systems in the drylands
R
eviewing the progress made in assessing the impacts of climate change on farming systems in the semi-arid tropics and charting the way forward were the prime focus of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvements Project (AgMIP) Eastern Africa’s 5th regional meet held on 6-9 January in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Sixteen country team members representing the four national partners – Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Ethiopia took part in the meet. The delegates recognized the significant progress the country teams have achieved in implementing the project work plans using the tools and protocols developed by the global AgMIP team. Lack of site-specific climate change projections was identified as one of the key challenges in assessing
the impacts of climate change. At the meeting, using the scripts developed by Dr Alex Ruane, leader of the global AgMIP climate team, the teams were able to generate future climate scenarios for a total of 59 stations in the four countries for mid (2040-2069) and end (2070-2099) century periods using outputs from 20 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) for 4.5 and 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The downscaled scenarios were found to be consistent with the global projections, both in magnitude and direction, and reflected well the uncertainty associated with the GCMs. A common feature of the most downscaled scenarios was the projection of a higher increase in minimum temperature compared to maximum temperature and a significant increase in the amount of rainfall. to page 2 ...4