A PRACTICAL FLOOD WARNING SYSTEM BASED ON RAINFALL THRESHOLD IN UNGAUGED BASINS
HidroGaia S.L.
G. Bruni(1), L. Pujol Reig(1), E. Ortiz(1), E. Cifres(2) and R. García-Bartual(2) (1) HidroGaia S.L., Valencia, Spain, (2) Universidad Politécnica de Valencia, Spain (eortiz@hidrogaia.com / Phone: +34961366072 / Fax: +34961366073)
Tecnología del Agua y el Medio Ambiente
Aim: The new methodology based on Martina et al., 2006 uses quantitative precipitation forecast related to critical rainfall threshold values, resulting in a straight forward alert system applicable by non-specialists or stakeholders. Rainfall thresholds are defined from cumulative storm rainfall which can generate a critical discharge at specific river sections. Application: The first application of the exposed methodology has been carried out in 14 ungauged basins, situated in Galicia-Costa, a northern region of Spain.
-4
AUTOREGRESIVE MODEL
MODIFIED BARTLETT-LEWIS MODEL
storm 1 duration > 4
Time without rain > 6
storm 2 duration = 4 0
160
SYNTHETIC TEMPERATURE
SYNTHETIC RAINFALL
Meta Gaussian distribution
1
140
40
14
[Kelly and Krzysztofowicz, 1997]
2
120
STORM SEPARATION
Temperatura (Cº)
10
8 6
4
25
BY AMC & DURATION
20 15 10
2
1
5001
10001
15001
20001
25001
30001
Tc
T2
3 Tc
4
80
T3
Tc
60
4
3
2
1
200 150
400 300
100 200
5
Qp
40
6
20
7
50
100
Volumen de lluvia acumulado
Caudal pico
8
0
5 0
T1
100
Rainfall [mm]
30
Flow [m3/s]
35
12
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
41
43
Time [hs]
0 1
5001
10001
15001
20001
25001
30001
Tiempo (horas) Tiempo (horas)
RAINFALL THRESHOLD CURVES 250
SIMULATED FLOWS 350
200 AMCI
Vacum [mm]
Caudal (m3/s)
300 250 200 150
150 AMCII
100 AMCIII
100
50 50 0 1
5001
10001
15001
20001
25001
0
30001
0
Tiempo (horas)
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
44
48
52
56
60
64
68
72
76
80
T [hs.]
CALENDAR: OCTOBER CALIBRATION / VALIDATION
1.00
SIMULATED AVERAGED SOIL MOISTURE 0.90
200 100
OBSERVED FLOWS SIMULATED FLOWS
Humedad (%)
160 140 120 100 80 60
0.80
90 80
0.70
70 0.60
60
AMC
180
Flowsl (m3/s)
Precipitación (mm)
Densidad de Probabilidad
x 10
50 40
0.40
AMCI
30
0
0 14/02/2006
1
24/02/2006
06/03/2006
Time (hs)
AMCIII
0.20
10
20
AMCII
0.30
20
40
0.50
5001
10001
15001
20001
25001
30001
0.10
16/03/2006
Tiempo (h)
0.00
0
100
200
300
400
500
30 DAYS ACUMULATED VOLUME [mm]
600
700