IFDC
Research on the Next Generation of Fertilizers Amit Roy IFDC Presented at the Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable Agriculture Basel, Switzerland January 18, 2011
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The Essential Questions What
Why
Who
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Where
When
How
IFDC
The Essential Questions What
Why
Who
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Where
When
How
Who?
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IFDC
Who? The World’s Poor and Hungry
925 million people suffer from hunger. That’s more people than live in the United States, Canada and the European Union combined.
Source: State of Food Insecurity in the World, 2008 FAO."Food Security Statistics"
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The Essential Questions What
Why
Who
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Where
When
How
Why? Resource Base and Productivity Land productivity hinges on nutrients, organic matter and water availability.
Essential nutrients required for plant growth are:
Nitrogen (N) Phosphorus (P) and Potassium (K) (organic or synthetic)
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IFDC
Why? Global Population Growth There will be more than 9 billion people living in the world by 2050.
Source: United Nations Estimates
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Why? Food Demand By 2050 dietary shifts will result in the consumption equivalent of about 11.5 billion people at 2009 diet levels.
FOOD DEMAND = 11.5 BILLION
POPULATION = 9 BILLION Source: United Nations Estimates
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Why? Lack of micronutrients: Affects more than half of world’s people Zinc, Iron and Boron
Fertilizers with micronutrients
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Why? Demand Growth 6000
millions of tons
5000
4000 3000
Developing 2000
Developed
1000 0 1989
2025
2050
Cereals
Source: UN Environment Program Estimates
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1989
2025
2050
Other Crops
1989
2025
2050
Animal Products
IFDC
Why? To meet demand, global food production must
increase by at least 70% by 2050 using less land and water resources without polluting the environment.
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Why? Factors Limiting Food Production Well-documented and predictable trends.
Available freshwater is in decline. Arable land area is shrinking. Marine harvests are dwindling. Poor efficiency in plant uptake of applied nutrients Agricultural research is in decline worldwide.
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Why? Global Water Scarcity Available groundwater is in decline as aquifers are depleted.
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Why? Available Farmland The amount of arable land in 2050 will be less than today.
At least 30% land under cultivation.
Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
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Why? Competing demand between crops for food and crops for biofuels also limits food supply
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IFDC
Why? Feeding the World While Producing Biofuels Ethanol (Bgal)
Biodiesel (Bgal)
Source: FAPRI
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Why?
rea Area
Fertilizers Essential to Make Land More Productive
Yield
South Asia
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Yield
Sub-Saharan Africa
IFDC
Why?
Global NPK Consumption 2008/09 161.8 mmt Rest of The World
Asia
Nitrogen = 99.2 mmt Asia
Rest of
Latin A
Africa
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Why? Fertilizer Prices (FOB, bulk) Monthly Averages (January 2007–December 2010)
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IFDC
NITROGEN
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Why? Closer Look at Nitrogen (N) There are only 3 ways to “fix� Nitrogen into a form that can be used by plants. Lightning and legumes account for a percentage of all nitrogen production.
Reactive nitrogen production comes from natural gas and coal conversion.
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Why? Urea production requires fossil fuels. equivalent of four barrels of oil to produce one ton of urea.
4-barrel energy equivalency equivalent
Urea = 46% Nitrogen
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Why? 2 out of 3 bags of urea go unused in wetland rice production
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Why? Grain Production and Nitrogen Use 1980-2007 40
China
35
30
30
25
25 20 20 15 15 10
10
5
5 0 1975 1975
1980 1980
1985 1985
1990 1990
1995 1995
Year Year Source: Guo et al., 2010
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2000 2000
2005 2005
0 2010 2010
million tons per year
kg Grain per kg N Applied
35
IFDC
Why? Grain Production and Nitrogen Use 1980-2007 35
India
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0 1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
Year Source: Fertilizer Statistics 2007/08, FAI; http://dacnet.nic.ineamdsAt_Glance_2008/pcrops_new.html
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2000
2005
0 2010
million tons per year
kg Grain per kg N Applied
35
IFDC
PHOSPHORUS
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Why? Phosphorus Containing Fertilizers Are Produced from Mined Phosphate Rock A Non –Renewable Finite Resource
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Why? Total P2O5 • 82% for fertilizer production • 18% for industrial uses
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Why? Phosphate Losses Loss of Phosphate Rock Mining Bed too thin, not suitable Open pit Underground
100% 5-50% 15-35%
Approximate Loss of P2O5 (%) Beneficiation Southeast U.S. West U.S. South America North Africa West Africa Middle East
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40-80 30 40 30 Up to 60 30
IFDC
Why? Phosphates Phosphoric Acid
Diammonium Phosphates (DAP)
Phosphate Rock Sulfur (Sulfuric Acid)
Ammonia
Investment: US $0.5–$1.5 billion; Time: 3–4 Years
1 Ton Sulfur Produces ~ 2 Tons of DAP
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Debate on P Efficiency Efficiency = 90% by Balance Method1,2 Efficiency = 10-25% by Ag Efficiency Method3
1. J.K. Syers, A.E. Johnston and D. Curtin D (2008) Efficiency of soil and fertilizer phosphorus use. FAO Fertilizer and Plant Nutrition Bulletin 18, FAO, Rome, Italy. 2. A.E. Johnston (2001) Principles of Crop Nutrition for Sustainable Food Production. Proceedings International Fertilizer Society 450, 39 p. (York). 3. S.H. Chien, L.I. Prochnow, S. Tu and C.S. Snyder (2001) Agronomic and environmental aspects of phosphate fertilizers varying in source and solubility: An update review, Nutr Cycl Agroecosyst (Published online).
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POTASSIUM
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Why?
Potassium-Containing Fertilizers Are Produced from Mined Potassium Salts A Non–Renewable, Finite Resource
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IFDC
Why? Potash Potassium Chloride (Potash) Sylvanite or Carnallite Beneficiation Investment: US $11.2 billion; Time: 5 Years1
1Paul
Galloway, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd., estimated in an Aug. 23 report quoted in Bloomberg online on 9/14/10 regarding BHP Billiton’s proposed Jansen mine in Saskatchewan
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Why? Due to Dietary Changes Potash Consumption Will Increase Rapidly • •
Available Reserves are Large Cost of Opening New Mines is Extremely High
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IFDC
The Cost of Doing Nothing
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Why? 1.
2.
“Do Nothing” – fertilizer NUE in cereals unchanged “NUE increased by 50%” in cereal crops by 2050
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Why? Impacts of 50% NUE Improvements (2011-2050) Do Nothing Scenario
NUE Increased Scenario
Savings Due to Increased NUE
Million Metric Tons (mmt)
1,281
817
464
Billion US $
1,114
710
403
Billion Barrels of Oil Equivalents
11
7
4
Million Metric Tons of CO2 Equivalents
2,689
1,715
974
Units Nitrogen Lost Cost of Lost Nitrogen Energy Used in Production of Lost Nitrogen Emissions of N2O-Nox Associated With Lost Nitrogen
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Why? Impact of NUE Improvements in Cereals (2011-2050)
Decrease consumption of 464 mmt of fertilizer-N with a value of $403 billion – about 37 times the 2007 USA consumption.
Decrease consumption of 4 billion barrels of oil equivalents – about 13 months of USA 2007 motor gasoline consumption.
Decrease NO2-NOx gas emissions by the equivalent of 974 mmt of CO2 – equivalent of 187 million mid-sized cars off the road for one year in USA.
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Why? There is no market incentive to improve efficiency or technology. Companies have invested in expensive production facilities to make the same product, the same way.
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Why? Industry Research and Development Spending The pharmaceutical and seed industries spend billions on R&D.
Pfizer, Glaxo, Merck ~ 16% of revenues are invested in R&D Syngenta, Monsanto ~ 9% of agribusiness revenues are invested in R&D
~ 0.01% of revenues in R&D for new products and new technologies
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IFDC
The Essential Questions What
Why
Who
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IFDC
What? A Global Initiative to Develop Next Generation of Fertilizers.
Key areas of research – nitrogen and phosphate including organic waste and micronutrients
Modify/improve existing fertilizer products and technologies.
Develop/incorporate new fundamental concepts and methods of generating viable fertilizer products and technologies.
Develop/institutionalize a global approach to create, monitor and sustain a universal research agenda.
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The Essential Questions What
Why
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IFDC
Where?
Physical Location, Washington, D.C. with activities conducted by laboratories around the Globe
VFRC is a global initiative – ―Next Generation of Fertilizer Research.‖
R&D scientists at work around the world.
Through Internet and other technology will collaborate in a virtual environment.
Likewise, others involved in VRC effort will be located around the world.
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The Essential Questions What
Why
Who
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IFDC
When?
The need exists today.
IFDC has been helping smallholder farmers and others in the agriculture value chain to improve their lives for 35 years.
USAID has seed funds to develop the VFRC “Proof of Concept.”
IFDC initiated the VFRC activities during 3Q 2009.
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The Essential Questions What
Why
Who
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When
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IFDC
How? We must take a global approach
to solving this problem.
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How? Virtual Fertilizer Research Center Managed by IFDC Led by Global Advisory Committees
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Research Network Structure External Solvers/Internal Solvers VFRC leadership sets boundaries and scope of work Direct solver-tosolver interaction to share ideas and resources Research collaboration Development collaboration IFDC Archives
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IFDC
VFRC Advisory Board
Jimmy Cheek (Chairman) Chancellor, The University of Tennessee
Marco Ferroni Executive Director, Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable Agriculture
Mark Huisenga Program Advisor, United States Agency for International Development
Assétou Kanouté Assistant Professor, Polytechnic Institute for Rural and Applied Research, University of Mali
Luc Maene Director General, International Fertilizer Industry Association
Peter McPherson President, Association of Public and Land-Grant Universities
Ruth Oniang’o Founder and Chair Board of Trustees, Rural Outreach Program, Kenya
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VFRC Advisory Board
Rudy Rabbinge University Professor , The Waganingan University
RenfangShen Director General, Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences
A. K. Singh Deputy Director General , Indian Council of Agricultural Research
Ajay Vashee President, Zambia National Farmers Union
Juergen Voegele Director, Agricultural and Rural Development Department, The World Bank
Prem Warrior Senior Program Officer, Science & Technology, Global Development, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
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Advisory Board Met Twice
Inaugural
Second
Meeting, May, 2010
Meeting, September, 2010
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Initial Results
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Nitrogen Research Efficiency Methods to increase N use efficiency: Size modification & placement—Urea deep placement (UDP) for rice: Larger granules of urea (0.7-2.8 g) . Placement below 9 cm of surface soils between 4 rice plants. Improves efficiency and productivity. Controlled Release Fertilizers—CRFs: Types—Slightly soluble, coated, and inhibitors. Existing CRFs not proven cost-effective for food crops in LDC. Opportunities for research into nano-technologies and absorbed materials.
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Example: Urea Deep Placement Bangladesh
Goal:
To transfer the UDP technology to rice farmers
Partners:
Public sector in Bangladesh: Bangladesh Ministry of Agriculture Bangladesh Rice Research Institute
The private sector (e.g. small private entrepreneurs) IFDC
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Producing “large” urea granules in the village…
Prilled or granular urea
Briquettes bagged and sold to retailers or farmers near the village
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An Alternative Application Method To Increase Urea Use Efficiency In Flooded Rice Broadcasting urea
Less efficient (less grain/kg urea)
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Deep placing ―Guti‖ urea
More efficient (more grain / kg urea)
UDP Applicator Trials
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IFDC
Average Impact on Paddy Yiel Results from 80Average Upazillas Impact on Paddy Yield
1/2 million hectare 46,000 mt of urea saved 350,000 mt of additional rice Tk 7,000- 9,500 additional farm income
9,000 8,000
8,000 6,432
6,000 6,000 5,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000
4,000 3,000
77 kg N/ha 125 kg N/ha
2,000
0 1,000 Broadcast
0
Deep Placement
Broadcast
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7,676
7,676
7,000 7,0006,432
(kg/ha)
9,000
Deep Placement
Paddy Yield (Kg/ha)
IFDC
Phosphate Research
Estimate more definitive world reserves/resources.
Improve phosphorus uptake from direct P rock application.
Micro-grinding of P rock – alter its crystal structure – make it more reactive at lower cost.
Greenhouse evaluations of P fertilizers with soil amendments to reduce fixation.
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Research Initiatives World Phosphate Rock Reserves and Resources a report by Steven J. Van Kauwenbergh principal scientist, IFDC
IFDC
Why? 9 (U.S. Billion) Tons 109 (U.S. Billion) (Tonsxx10
350
IFDC Preliminary Resource Estimate 286
300
250 200 150
IFDC Preliminary Reserve Estimate (Product)
100
50
USGS (2010) Reserves 16
0
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60
Effect of P particle Size on Yield
Relative Yield Response
100
80 60 40
TSP P Rock (3 um)
20
P Rock (~30 um) 0 1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
Relative P Rate (P2O5/ha) IFDC Phosphate Rock Expert System Report (Simulated): North Carolina, USA, Maize, pH 6.0, CEC 3.01 meq/100 g, P fixation 0, Corrected NAC 2nd 7.89, Rainfall 1761 mm.
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IFDC
Summary Investing in the development of Next Generation Fertilizers will improve efficiency and productivity of agriculture while conserving natural resources and protecting the environment.
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Thank You Celebrating 35 Years