IHDP_AR_2003 by Louise Smith

ANNUAL REPORT 2003/2004 I NTERNATIONAL H UMAN D IMENSIONS P ROGRAMME

G LOBAL E NVIRONMENTAL C HANGE

This Annual Report was produced using funds provided by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the United States National Science Foundation (NSF).

Sponsors of IHDP in 2003: Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (Germany) Bundesministerium für Bildung, Wissenschaft und Kultur (Austria) Consortium of Social Science Associations (USA) Forschungszentrum für Umwelt und Gesundheit in der HelmholtzGemeinschaft (Germany) Global Change System for Analysis, Research and Training (START) Inter American Institute for Global Change Research International Council for Science International Social Science Council Koninklijke Nederlandse Akademie van Wetenschappen (The Netherlands) Ministerium für Wissenschaft und Forschung des Landes NordrheinWestfalen (Germany) Ministère des Affaires étrangères (France) National Central University (Taiwan) National Science Foundation (USA) Norges Forskningsrad (Norway) Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn (Germany) Schweizerische Akademie der Geistes- und Sozialwissenschaften (Switzerland) Suomalainen Tiedeakatemia (Finland) UNESCO Vetenskapsrådet (Sweden)

ISSN 1727-8953 Edited by Ula Löw Layout by Ulrike Lohoff-Erlenbach Titel by Bernd Decker and UNEP / Still Pictures Photos by Bernd Decker (p. 30, p. 42, p. 43, p. 44), UNEP / Still Pictures (p. 6, p. 9, p. 18), UNEP / Marc Spalding (p. 25) and Digital Vision (p. 12, p. 14, p. 21, p. 31) Printed by Köllen Druck + Verlag GmbH, Bonn-Buschdorf Printed on 100% reycled paper International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP) IHDP Secretariat Walter-Flex-Str. 3 53113 Bonn Germany

Telephone: Fax: E-mail: Web:

+49 (0)228-73-9050 +49 (0)228-73-9054 ihdp@uni-bonn.de www.ihdp.org

ANNUAL REPORT 2003/2004 I NTERNATIONAL H UMAN D IMENSIONS P ROGRAMME

G LOBAL E NVIRONMENTAL C HANGE

Table of Contents Foreword by the Chair and the Executive Director

What Is IHDP?

1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5

Mission Structure Research Projects Crosscutting Questions Earth System Science Partnership (ESS-P)

4 4 5 5 5

Why Do we Need IHDP in Global Environmental Change Research?

IHDP Research

3.1 3.1.1 3.1.2 3.1.3 3.1.4

Established Core Research Projects Global Environmental Change and Human Security (GECHS) Industrial Transformation (IT) Institutional Dimensions of Global Environmental Change (IDGEC) Land-Use and Land-Cover Change (LUCC)

7 7 11 16 20

3.2 3.2.1

New Core Research Project Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone (LOICZ)

25 25

3.3 3.3.1 3.3.2

Core Research Projects Under Development Urbanization Global Land Project (GLP)

28 28 29

3.4

IHDP Mid-Term Review

3.5 3.5.1 3.5.2 3.5.3 3.5.4

Earth System Science Partnership (ESS-P) Global Carbon Project (GCP) Global Environmental Change and Food Systems (GECaFS) Global Water System Project (GWSP) Planned Joint Project on Human Health and Global Environmental Change

31 32 36 40 42

3.6 3.6.1 3.6.2

IHDP Endorsed Research Networks Population-Environment Research Network (PERN) Mountain Research Initiative (MRI)

43 43 43

Capacity Building

4.1 4.2 4.3

International Human Dimensions Workshops Other IHDP Sponsored Capacity Building Events The Young Human Dimensions Researchers Initiative (YHDR)

44 46 47

Scientific Meetings and Networking

5.1 5.2

Open Meetings of the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Research Community Other IHDP (Co)-Sponsored Meetings 2003/2004

47 50

Linking International with Regional and National Research Agendas

6.1 6.2 6.3

National Committees for Human Dimensions Research Seed Grant Initiative (Co-)Sponsoring of and Participation in Regional and National Meetings

50 51 52

Science-Policy Making Interface

Mainstreaming the Message: Information, Communication and Outreach 54

Organizational Structure

9.1 9.2 9.3

IHDP Scientific Committee Meetings of IHDP Governing Bodies 2003/2004 IHDP Secretariat

55 56 57

10.

Budget in 2003

Foreword

Foreword This Annual Report gives you an overview of the activities and progress of IHDP between January 2003 and June 2004. Due to important decisions made at the beginning of 2004, we decided to extend the usual reporting period beyond the calendar year 2003 in order to be able to give a more complete view of the developments within IHDP. Global environmental change has developed in the last couple of years into an area of major international scientific, political and economic concern. Moreover, it is more and more becoming the concern of local citizens and entrepreneurs. Global environmental change is thus being increasingly mainstreamed in various ways. One only has to witness the reactions to the movie “The Day after Tomorrow”, several television portrayals by large networks on “Climate Change” and the growing engagement by scientists, NGOs, civic leaders and policy makers around the world on issues of global environmental change and sustainable development. The World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) in 2002 and follow-up processes like the Millennium Development Goals and the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) have strongly influenced this process. But the international scientific programmes coordinating research on global change - DIVERSITAS, IGBP, IHDP and WCRP - have also played an instrumental role. All of these initiatives have meant that we can no longer remain neutral to global environmental change and that each one of us has to become involved because we are already affected by global environmental change. Scientists, such as those engaged in the IHDP network, are committed to providing credible science that can help explain the particularities of global environmental change and develop sustainable responses to this problem. The results emerging thus far, several profiled in this report, show that we have been quite successful up to now and already have achieved a lot. However, we also identify several challenges for IHDP in the future: How do we analyse, that means understand and explain, global environmental change, which is at the centre of our programme? Being that a highly complex and multidimensional problem from the spatial and temporal point of view such a challenge is not a trivial endeavour. From a human dimensions perspective, the immediate answer would be: By putting people in the centre of the analysis. However, to put people in the centre of the analysis has epistemological implications which have not yet been broadly taken into account by the global change programmes. Theoretical approaches and methodological instruments have to be developed to address coupled human-environmental systems in a more integrative way. How do we communicate a problem such as global environmental change which has a high degree of abstractions and uncertainty? One possible solution is to work at the interfaces between science and society and focus more strongly (in the sense of sustainability science) on how to translate scientific knowledge into other arenas of knowledge and decision-making. How do we handle global environmental change? We have to make a contribution to the design of mitigation and adaptation strategies which are feasible from a social, economic, political and cultural point of view. For this process the involvement of stakeholders is crucial. We are happy to continue work all together, with great commitment and enthusiasm, to face these challenges, to continue to develop IHDP and push forward research on global environmental change.

Coleen Vogel and Barbara Göbel Chair

Executive Director

Annual Report 2003/2004

Introduction

What Is IHDP? Initially launched in 1990 by the International Social Science Council (ISSC), the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Programme (HDP) was designed as the social science partner (including humanities and economics) to other Global Change Programmes. In 1996 the International Council for Science (ICSU) joined ISSC as a co-sponsor and the name was changed to the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP). IHDP is an international, interdisciplinary, non-governmental science organization dedicated to promoting and coordinating research, capacity building and networking on the human dimensions of global environmental change. It takes a social science perspective on global change and it works at the interface between science and policy-making. IHDP is financed by a broad range of funding agencies from different countries.

1.1

Mission IHDP's mission is to generate scientific knowledge on coupled human-environment systems, achieve comprehensive understanding of global environmental change processes and their consequences for sustainable development, and make contributions to explore:

the anthropogenic drives of global environmental change, the impact of such change on human welfare, and societal responses to mitigate and adapt to global environmental change.

IHDP fosters high-quality research. The dynamics of land-use and land-cover change, interactions between institutions and global environment, human security, sustainable production and consumption systems as well as food and water issues, urbanization and the global carbon cycle are investigated in the context of global environmental change.

1.2

Structure IHDP takes an interactive, “bottom-up” approach drawing from the voluntary participation of researchers from different disciplines from all over the world. From an organizational point of view, IHDP constitutes a “network of networks” with four central framing components: the Scientific Committee (SC), under the leadership of the Chair gives the programme scientific guidance, the core research projects, with their respective Scientific Steering Committees (SSC) and Chairs, and two types of coordination nodes: the central coordination node is the IHDP Secretariat, hosted by the University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany, the other coordination nodes are the International Project Offices (IPO) of the core research programmes.

Annual Report 2003/2004

Introduction

1.3

Research Projects IHDP has four established core research projects: Global Environmental Change and Human Security (GECHS), launched in 1999, IPO at Carleton University in Ottawa, Canada Industrial Transformation (IT), launched in 2000, IPO at the Vrije Universiteit in Amsterdam, The Netherlands Institutional Dimensions of Global Environmental Change (IDGEC), launched in 1999, IPO at the University of California in Santa Barbara, USA Land-Use and Land-Cover Change (LUCC), co-sponsored by IGBP, launched in 1995 and closing down at the end of 2005, IPO at the Université catholique de Louvain in Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. In addition, since March 2004, IHDP has been the scientific co-sponsor (together with IGBP) of the “New” Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone (LOICZ) project launched in 2004, IPO at CEO, Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research in Texel, The Netherlands. IHDP is also currently developing two new core projects: Urbanization (planned start at the end of 2004) Global Land Project (co-sponsored by IGBP, planned start at the end of 2004).

1.4

Crosscutting Questions IHDP's core projects are linked by four crosscutting themes, which crystallize key aspects of human dimensions research:

Vulnerability/Resilience/Adaptation: What factors determine the capacity of coupled human-environment systems to endure and produce sustainable outcomes in the face of social and biophysical change? Thresholds/Transitions: How can we recognize long-term trends in forcing functions and ensure orderly transitions when thresholds are passed? Governance: How can we steer tightly coupled systems towards desired goals or away from undesired outcomes? Social Learning/Knowledge: How can we stimulate social learning in the interest of managing the dynamics of tightly coupled systems?

1.5

Earth System Science Partnership (ESS-P) IHDP also collaborates with three international partner programmes, coordinating research on global change: DIVERSITAS, the international programme on biodiversity science, the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Together, these four Global Change Programmes form the Earth System Science Partnership (ESS-P) (http:// www.ess-p.org). One of their main activities is to develop joint research projects on global sustainability:

Annual Report 2003/2004

Introduction

Global Carbon Project (GCP), launched in 2003, IPO at CSIRO in Canberra, Australia and NIES in Tsukuba, Japan Global Environmental Change and Food Systems (GECaFS), launched in 2001, IPO at NERC in Wallingford, UK Global Water System Project (GWSP), launched in 2004, IPO at the University of Bonn in Bonn, Germany.

Why Do we Need IHDP in Global Environmental Change Research? IHDP is the social science component of an international research community addressing a global problem - irreversible change of the Earth System - that increasingly has perceivable impacts on the regional and local level. The Earth System is a coupled system. It behaves as a single, self-regulating system comprising of physical, chemical, biological and human components. The dynamics of this coupled system cannot be understood in simple “cause-effect” paradigms and are characterized by critical thresholds and abrupt changes. In terms of some key environmental parameters, the Earth System has already moved well outside the range of the natural variability exhibited in the past. Hereby, changes in one region can have impacts in other regions of the Earth System. A strong connectivity between places and processes exists: transformations interlink anywhere and have cascading consequences, from global to local scales, through tele-connections in the Earth System. Human activities are significantly influencing the Earth's environment in diverse and complex ways, in addition to greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. At the same time, transformations of the Earth System have multiple impacts on peoples’ lives. The global, regional and local dimensions of environmental change are increasingly interlinked. Related to this, global environmental change cannot be understood without taking economic, political and cultural globalization into account. This means that we cannot achieve local sustainable development without considering global sustainability, including an examination of the social, political and economic processes “driving” global environmental changes. The irreversible changes in the Earth System initially have been identified and studied within natural science disciplines. However, in order to understand and explain the problem in a more encompassing way and develop “management” strategies that are feasible from an economic, political, social and cultural point of view, people have to be put at the centre of the analysis. This is why the demand for social science perspectives has become more urgent. As a response to this demand, IHDP was created as a complementary programme to the natural science programmes WCRP (World Climate Research Programme, created in 1980) and IGBP (International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, created in 1986) as well as, more recently, DIVERSITAS (the international programme on biodiversity science, created in 1991). While it is quite obvious that we need social science research on global environmental change, the question still remains, however: why do we need an international plat-

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Research

form to coordinate these research efforts? The main reason for the increasing demand for a coordination platform like IHDP lies in the nature of the problem: global environmental change is an urgent issue as the time frame for mitigation and adaptation is limited; it is a global problem affecting everybody everywhere, and it is a highly complex problem which has to be addressed from different disciplinary and regional perspectives. A two-tiered approach exists to tackle the problem: on the one hand, an international coordination platform such as IHDP constitutes an important instrument to make research more effective and thereby advance our understanding of global environmental change. It is a flexible umbrella to collect, connect and synthesize research insights by taking a broad range of disciplinary and regional perspectives into account, simultaneously identifying new areas of research in a consensus-oriented way. On the other hand, a coordination platform such as IHDP is a sciencebased channel that can inform policy-making processes and translate scientific knowledge into other arenas of action.

IHDP Research

3.1

Established Core Research Projects The four established IHDP core research projects - GECHS, IT, IDGEC and LUCC have continued to develop in 2003 and 2004. They have made important contributions to improve our understanding of global environmental change, to design economically, socially and culturally feasible adaptation and mitigation strategies, and to foster global sustainability.

3.1.1 Global Environmental Change and Human Security (GECHS) The overall purpose of the GECHS project is to stimulate research on how environmental change can pose a threat to human security and to investigate means for reducing these insecurities. Working with policy makers and communities within selected regions, GECHS researchers not only investigate relationships between global environmental change and human security, but also examine and assess available options for enhancing human security and identify obstacles which communities might face while overcoming environmental changes.

Human security is achieved when and where individuals and communities: have the options necessary to end, mitigate, or adapt to threats to their human, environmental, and social rights, actively participate in attaining these options, and have the capacity and freedom to exercise these options.

The GECHS project addresses two main areas, Vulnerability and Conflict, Cooperation and Global Environmental Change. Vulnerability research is conducted through the following research frames: (1) South African Vulnerability Initiative, (2) Vulnerability in Coastal Communities, (3) Climate Change and Vulnerable Agricultural Systems, (4) Globalization and Global Environmental Change Convergence, and (5) Institutional Capacity in Natural Disasters' Risk Reduction.

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The second main area, Conflict, Cooperation and Global Environmental Change, includes (1) Resource Scarcity versus Abundance and Conflict, (2) Shared Rivers and Interstate Conflicts, (3) Democracy and the Environment, and (4) Environmental Conservation and Human Security.

Project Development The Southern Africa Vulnerability Initiative (SAVI) is a GECHS-led initiative that commenced in 2003 and is supported by ICSU and IHDP. Its first major event was a workshop held in Maputo, Mozambique, in June 2003.

The Southern Africa Vulnerability Initiative (SAVI) aims to consolidate different facets of vulnerability research and develop an integrated framework for understanding vulnerability to global environmental change in southern Africa. SAVI emphasizes the importance of linking vulnerability to global environmental change with other stressors, including HIV/AIDS, conflicts, globalization, urbanization, water scarcity, and institutional changes. Practitioners working on environment, development, and health-related issues in rural and urban communities in southern Africa have long been aware of the intersections and interactions among multiple stressors, particularly how they shape vulnerability and influence human security. They have also been keenly aware of opportunities that arise from change, and how the ability to grasp opportunities is conditioned by the outcomes of multiple and interacting processes of change. What has been lacking, however, is a framework for understanding how multiple stressors interact and constrain or support these opportunities. The SAVI project is working with both researchers and practitioners to identify the critical stressors that influence human security in southern Africa. Through an inventory of institutions addressing vulnerable populations in southern Africa, SAVI is exploring the extent to which agencies, institutions and researchers collaborate to share information, and how they have adjusted their approaches over the past few years to manage multiple stressors. SAVI seeks to build a coalition amongst scientists in the region to implement a comprehensive vulnerability research programme, and, in relation to those aspects of vulnerability related to regional food security, is establishing an active collaboration with the Global Environmental Change and Food System Project (GECaFS). Karen O'Brien, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway

A new GECHS research project on Institutional Capacity in Natural Disasters Risk Reduction started in March 2004 thanks to a grant from the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN). One of its main objectives is the comparative analysis of institutions, national policies and cooperative responses to floods in Asia. It will also identify possibilities and constraints, and explain major successes and failures in the implementation of policies and measures in floods management and in the behaviour of main stakeholders. The project will exchange major lessons learnt from domestic and regional practices in particular cases of flood events in four countries (Vietnam, Russia, Thailand and Japan) and develop policy recommendations on how institutions for floods management can be made more effective and enhance the well-being of local communities.

Annual Report 2003/2004

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Research

Structural Development The GECHS sub-office at the University of California in Irvine, USA headed by GECHS SSC member Richard Matthew, was upgraded in 2003 into the Center for Unconventional Security Studies. The GECHS sub-office in the Peace Research Institute in Oslo, Norway, was part of a consortium awarded in 2003 a Center of Excellence focusing on the study of civil war. A GECHS SSC member, Nils Petter Gleditsch, directs a sub-project on the role of resource abundance and scarcity as contributors to civil war. The sub-office is also involved in major collection and dissemination efforts of conflict data and co-sponsors several workshops each year.

Activities of GECHS in 2003/2004 GECHS co-sponsored and took part in several conferences and workshops: 04/03

Climatic Awareness Workshop for high schools, Ottawa, Canada

05/03

Seminar by GECHS SSC member Elena Nikitina on “Global Environmental Change and Human Security”, Ottawa, Canada

06/03

Coastal Vulnerability Workshop in Canada in partnership with Canada's national IHDP network and the Ocean Management Research Network on Change Islands, Newfoundland, Canada

06/03

SAVI Workshop in Maputo, Mozambique

09/03

Seminar by GECHS SSC member Hans-Georg Bohle, Ottawa, Canada

10/03

Open Meeting (see below) and GECHS SSC Meeting, Montreal, Canada

11/03

Seminar on “Regional Governance of Oil Resources in the Central Africa Rift Region”, Oslo, Norway

12/03

Conference on “Environment, Conflict, and Cooperation: Gaps and Opportunities for Research and Policy Agendas”, Washington D.C., USA

Involvement of GECHS in Broader IHDP Activities Participation of the GECHS core project at the 5th Open Meeting on the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Research Community, Montreal, Canada, 16-18 October 2003, included one panel on Measuring Vulnerability and Adaptability: Conceptual and Methodological Challenges by GECHS SSC member Karen O'Brien, and a panel on Global Environmental Change and Coastal Systems: A Microcosm of Coupled Human-Environment Systems by SSC Chair Mike Brklacich, in conjunction with other core research projects (IDGEC, LOICZ and GLOBEC of IGBP) and ESS-P joint projects (GECaFS). Karen O'Brien also gave a keynote address on Vulnerability to Multiple Stressors: Globalization and Climate Change. The GECHS annual SSC meeting was held back-to-back to the Open Meeting. Maureen Woodrow (GECHS Executive Officer) develops a research project on Vulnerability of Canada's Coastal Communities to Environmental Stress. It converges with several aspects of the LOICZ project. Maureen Woodrow and Hartwig Kremer, the Executive Officer of LOICZ, are currently discussing joint research and workshop possibilities on vulnerability

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Core Projects

in coastal communities and their surrounding oceans waters. The GECHS project is also actively involved in the IAI-IHDP Global Environmental Change Institute on Globalization and Food Systems which will take place in Costa Rica from 24th October to 6th November 2004. Karen O'Brien is the scientific leader of this capacity building activity. Alexander L贸pez, who is also a member of the GECHS SSC, is the local host. Further activities include continued active participation in the ESS-P joint projects, in particular the Global Environmental Change and Food Systems Project (GECaFS) of which GECHS Chair Michael Brklacich is the Vice-Chair, and the Global Water Systems Project (GWSP) with SSC members Nils Petter Gleditsch and Alexander L贸pez playing an active role.

Publications AVISO is the GECHS newsletter that focuses on a special theme in each of its editions. Special themes in 2003 and 2004 were: Urbanization; Gender, Global Environmental Change and Security; and Vulnerability and Global Environmental Change: Rhetoric and Reality. Among a number of publications - articles, chapters and books - produced in 2003/2004 so far are: Gleditsch, N.-P. 2003. Environmental Conflict: Neomalthusians versus Cornucopians. In: Security and the Environment in the Mediterranean: Conceptualizing Security and Environmental Conflicts, Brauch, H.-G. (ed.). Springer, Berlin, 477-486. Hegsvold Andersen, K. 2003. Resource Conflict and Oil Companies in Angola. Ph.D., Thesis, Department of Economics, University of Oslo, Oslo. Matthew, R. and K. Rutherford 2004. War's Hidden Legacy: Human Security and the Mine Ban Treaty. SUNY Press, Albany. In 2004/2005, a key activity is the production of the GECHS book: Global Environmental Change and Human Security edited by Richard Matthew, Mike Brklacich and Gina Giannikopoules. Also, the third issue of the IHDP newsletter in 2004, UPDATE, will focus on GECHS related research and has the title Conflict and Cooperation.

GECHS Scientific Steering Committee Michael Brklacich Chair Chris Cocklin Vice-Chair Elena N. Nikitina Vice-Chair

Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada Monash Environmental Institute, Monash University, Victoria, Australia

Hans Bohle

(since 08/04) Institute of Geography, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany International Peace Research Institute, Oslo, Norway Population and Development Program, Hampshire College, Amherst, MA, USA National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands

Nils Petter Gleditsch Betsy Hartmann Fred Langeweg

Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

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Core Projects

Alexander López Richard Matthew Kwasi Nsiah-Gyabaah Karen O'Brien

Research

Mesoamerican Center for Sustainable Development of the Dry Tropics, Universidad Nacional de Costa Rica, Nicoya, Costa Rica Center for Unconventional Security Affairs, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA Sunyani Polytechnic, Sunyani, Ghana Center for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO), University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway

GECHS International Project Office Maureen Woodrow, Executive Officer Department of Geography and Environmental Studies Carleton University 1125, Colonel By Drive Ottawa, ON Canada K1S 5B6 T: +1 613 520 2600, ext.1984 F: +1 613 520 4301 mwoodrow@ccs.carleton.ca

http://www.gechs.org

3.1.2

Industrial Transformation (IT) IT science has become the focus of many research institutes worldwide and is of increasing interest to many governments.

The goal of the Industrial Transformation project is to explore pathways towards decoupling of economic growth from the related degradation of the environment. Objectives: Industrial Transformation (IT) presents an innovative way of organizing research, that aims to understand the societal mechanisms and human driving forces that could facilitate a transformation of the industrial system towards sustainability. IT seeks to integrate and stimulate cooperation among international and interdisciplinary scientists by establishing both a research framework and a network that can be useful for exchanging information and identifying priority research questions. The significant added-value of research within this project is its integrative and multidisciplinary character that draws upon the dynamic interactions and mutual dependencies between the socio-economic, the producer (technological) and the consumer (market) domain, which have, so far, been studied almost exclusively as rather isolated factors.

IT research foci are: (1) Energy and Material Flows, (2) Food, (3) Cities (with focus on transportation and water), (4) Information and Communication, and (5) Governance and Transformation Processes. IT has a large number of pro-jects, i.e. “Carbon Flows between Western and Eastern Europe”, “Protein, Foods, Environment, Technology and Society”, “Urban Policy Integration of Energy Related Environmental Issues in Selected Asian Mega-Cities”, or the “Knowledge Network on System Innovations”.

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Core Projects

Project Development Across the above mentioned foci, two types of research activities can be distinguished thus far: One is focused on understanding the dynamics of past transformations which often occurred without any plan. The second type of research is analysing the possibilities of steering societal changes in a direction towards sustainability. This research is still in an experimental phase. Efforts in 2004 are being devoted to a review of the IT Science Plan, in which energy and food issues continue to play major roles but additional thematic priorities, i.e. systems innovations research, are also being considered. In connection with the review of the IT Science Plan an international workshop is planned for March 2005 in Amsterdam, The Netherlands. The outcome of this workshop will also serve as an input for the 6th Open Meeting of the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Research Community, October 2005 in Bonn, Germany, and the IHDP mid-term review process in general. IT research links producer and consumer perspectives, including incentives and institutions which help shape these perspectives, and analyse systems in cultural, economic and technical terms. One of the greatest achievements of IT is bringing together the IT community in an international scientific debate. The project organizes regional workshops and meetings and has also been involved in major international conferences partly or fully devoted to IT issues. These efforts have led to including IT research questions in research and policy agendas worldwide. Dutch transitions towards sustainability - The reason for the Dutch attention for transitions goes back to the preparations of the Fourth National Environmental Policy Plan (NEP4). During this process policy makers realized that some of the environmental problems, particularly in connection with the energy system, the agricultural system and the mobility system, could not be solved by applying more “traditional” policy measures. Although these may have some positive incremental effects, the necessary system changes would not be achieved in time. Because of synergies between Dutch policymaking and the IT agenda it has been agreed that the IT International Project Office - which is based in Amsterdam, The Netherlands - would serve as a link for Dutch policy makers and researchers which the international scientific agenda. An example of IT research that brings together scientists from across the world to focus on an IT theme is the “MOSUS”-Project. The key focus or research question that this group is examining is:

Is Europe Sustainable? Modelling Opportunities and Limits for Restructuring Europe towards Sustainability (MOSUS) The “MOSUS” project, funded by the 5th Framework Programme of the European Union (sub-programme Environment and Sustainable Development) and endorsed by the IHDP-IT programme, addresses three major themes of current European policies: (1) sustainable development and the

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necessary integration of environmental, economic and social policies, (2) competitiveness and social cohesion in the knowledge-based society, and (3) globalization and international trade. The underlying economic model applied in MOSUS is a multi-national, multi-sectoral system of macroeconomic input-output models and macro models (55 countries and world regions with a disaggregation of up to 36 sectors), which are linked by bi-lateral trade models of up to 25 product groups. This system, which is a “closed” system on the global level, is extended by environmental input data in physical units (data on material and energy inputs and land use), in order to develop an integrated ecological-economic simulation model. It is the first such tool directly to consider comprehensive bio-physical data in European and global simulations up to the year 2020 and to put them in relation to structural indicators of social and economic developments. Applying this model for the evaluation of sustainability scenarios for Europe significantly enhances the knowledge on the interactions between environmental changes and socio-economic trends that often are the driving force of undesirable environmental impacts. MOSUS contributes to the objectives of the Industrial Transformation programme of IHDP in various ways. First, it provides the first comprehensive quantification of the overall physical scale of the European economy, including so-called “ecological rucksacks” (in terms of materials, energy and land) associated with imports from other world regions. Second, MOSUS enables estimations of the impacts of key environmental policy measures implemented in Europe (such as an ecological tax reform or a subsidies reform) on economic (growth, investments and structural change), environmental (use of natural resources) and fundamental social indicators (employment and income distribution) in the European economy as well as in other regions of the world, in particular developing countries. Finally, the project will deliver validated policy recommendations for responding to ongoing environmental changes and for best reconciling competing sustainability objectives, such as continued economic growth, maintained social cohesion and protection of the environment. The project started in February 2003 and has a total duration of 3 years. Currently, the sustainability scenarios up to the year 2020 that integrate issues of socio-economic driving forces, technological change and consumer demand, social exclusion as well as land, material and energy use, are being finalized. Biophysical data are compiled in comprehensive databases on material inputs and land use and will be integrated into the economic simulation tool in autumn 2004. First results of the model simulations will be available at the beginning of 2005. More information on the projects’ progress and results can be obtained from the projects website at http://www.mosus.net, where also background papers and presentations related to MOSUS are available for download. Günther Fischer, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),Laxenburg, Austria Stefan Giljum, Sustainable Europe Research Institute (SERI), Vienna, Austria

Activities of IT in 2003/2004 IT co-sponsored and took part in several conferences and workshops: 02/03

International Workshop on “Policy Integration towards Sustainable Urban Energy Use for Cities in Asia”, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA

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02/03

South Asia Regional Conference on “Transitions towards Sustainable Development”, New Delhi, India

02/03

IT SSC Meeting, New Delhi, India

03/03

Scandinavian Workshop on “Industrial Transformation Research”, Oslo, Norway

04/03

Swiss Workshop on “Industrial Transformation Research”, Berne, Switzerland

06/03

IT-endorsed Workshop on “Assessing the Sustainability of Bio-based Products”, Norman, OK, USA

08/03

Advanced Institute on “Urbanization, Emissions and the Global Carbon Cycle”, Boulder, CO, USA

09/03

International Workshop on “Disciplinary Review of Transformation Research”, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

10/03

Open Meeting (see below) and IT SSC Meeting, Montreal, Canada

12/03

IT-endorsed Berlin Conference on the “Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change: Governance for Industrial Transformation”, Berlin, Germany

01/04

IT-IGES Workshop on “Policy Integration towards Sustainable Energy Use for Asian Cities: Integrating Local Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gas Emissions”, Kanagawa, Japan

05/04

Conference on “Innovation, Sustainability and Policy”, Kloster Seeon, Germany

06/04

IT-endorsed Conference on “Hydrogen in Europe: Towards a Consistent Policy Framework for Sustainable Energy and Mobility”, Brussels, Belgium

Furthermore, two web-conferences on Ecocity Development as well as on Sustainable Consumption took place in 2003.

Involvement of IT in Broader IHDP Activities At the 5th Open Meeting of the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Research Community, Montreal, Canada, 16-18 October 2003, the IT project convened and hosted four panel sessions: (1) The Dutch Knowledge Network on Systems Innovation: Shaping the Sustainability Area, (2) Transitions towards Sustainability: How to understand them?, (3) Transitions towards Sustainability: How to induce them?, and (4) Industrial Transformation: Taking Stock of Regional Approaches. IHDP's UPDATE newsletter 04/2003 Open Meeting Special includes a summary of these sessions and a special issue of the Technological Forecasting and Social Change journal is planned. IT also held its SSC meeting subsequent to the Open Meeting. In February 2005, a joint LUCC/IT workshop “From LTER to LTSER: Conceptualizing the Socio-Economic Dimension of Long-Term Socio-Ecological Research” is planned in Vienna, Austria.

Publications Launched in June 2003, the web-based IT Reference Manager (http://ivm5.ivm. vu.nl/ris) is a tool that allows for searching the IT data-base for papers, books, reports that IT and the IT Scientific Steering Committee (SSC) considered inter-

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esting and relevant for socio-technological transformations. The Reference Manager will be constantly improved to serve the IHDP-IT community in their research on development of alternative pathways which have significantly smaller burden on the environment. Important publications include: Deb, K. and L. Srivastava (eds.) 2003. Transition towards Sustainable Development in South East Asia. The Energy Research Institute, New Delhi, India. Elzen, B., F. Geels and K. Green (eds.) 2004. System Innovation and the Transition to Sustainability, Edward Elgar, London, UK. Faaji, A., M. Minnesma and A. Wieczorek (eds.) 2003. International Debate on International Bio-Energy Trade, IHDP-IT Report, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Kuik, O., F. Berkhout and A. Wieczorek (eds.) 2003. Russian Carbon and Europe's Climate. International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics 3 (3), 195-198. Olsthoorn, X. and A. Wieczorek (eds.) 2004. Sciences for Industrial Transformation. Views from Different Disciplines. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands. Wieczorek, A. 2003. Carbon Flows between Eastern and Western Europe (CFEWE): Final Report, IHDP-IT Report 26, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Finally, IHDP's newsletter UPDATE Issue 1 of 2003 featured a special edition on Industrial Transformation.

IT Scientific Steering Committee Pier Vellinga, Chair Frans Berkhout Chair

(until 06/04), Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands (since 07/04), Science and Technology Policy Research Department (SPRU), Unisity of Sussex, Brighton, UK

David Angel

Clark School of Geography, Clark University, Worcester, MA, USA Department of Physical Resource Theory, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden Institute for Interdisciplinary Studies of Austrian Universities, Vienna, Austria Manchester School of Management, Manchester, UK (until 06/03), University of North Carolina, Kenan - Flagler Business School, Chapel Hill, NC, USA (until 06/03), Institute of Environmental Systems, Kyushu University 36, Fukuoka, Japan The Brazilian Reference Center on Biomass CENBIO), Sao Paolo, Brazil (since 04/04), School of Law, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia (until 06/03), Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA The Energy Research Institute (TERI), New Delhi, India (until 06/03), Brazilian Agricultural Research Cooperation (EMBRAPA), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Christian Azar Marina Fischer Kowalski Ken Green Stuart Hart Hidefumi Imura Jose Moreira Edward Parson Nina Poussenkova Richard Rockwell Leena Srivastava Luis Vieira

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Pier Vellinga stepped down as Chair of the IT SSC in June 2004. With great dedication he has been heading the project since its beginning. The IHDP would like to thank Pier for all his commitment in the long and challenging process of creating and developing the IT project. His vision and determination have been essential in its inception and establishment. We wish him success in fulfilling his position as Dean of the Faculty of Life and Earth Sciences at the Vrije Universiteit in Amsterdam, The Netherlands. At the same time we are glad to welcome Frans Berkhout, who has been a Director of the Science and Technology Policy Research Department at University of Sussex in the UK until recently. From 1 July 2004, he will become Director of the Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) in Amsterdam, The Netherlands, which hosts the IT International Project Office.

IT International Project Office Anna J. Wieczorek, Executive Officer Institute for Environmental Studies Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam De Boelelaan 1087 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands T: +31 20 4449504 F: +31 20 4449553 anna.j.wieczorek@ivm.vu.nl http://130.37.129.100/ivm/research/ihdp-it/index.html

3.1.3

Institutional Dimensions of Global Environmental Change (IDGEC) IDGEC focuses on the role of institutions in causing, exacerbating and solving large-scale environmental problems. IDGEC's central research foci are:

Focus 1 - Causality What role do institutions play in causing and confronting global environmental change? Focus 2 - Performance Why are some institutional responses to environmental problems more successful than others? Focus 3 - Design What are the prospects for (re-)designing institutions to confront environmental change?

Within each of these foci, the analysis looks particularly closely at concepts of institutional fit, interplay, and issues of scale. To this end, IDGEC has launched three flagship activities focusing on forest use and management (Political Economy of Forestry in Tropical and Boreal Forests - PEF), ocean governance (Performance of the Exclusive Economic Zones - PEEZ) and carbon management (Carbon Management Research Activity - CMRA). Regional foci are the circumpolar North and Southeast Asia. The IDGEC framework is projected to be extended to the analytical themes of agency, change and knowledge.

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Project Development IDGEC's analytic themes on the problems of fit, interplay and scale have proven highly productive and are playing an important role in research on environmental institutions and governance systems. While research in the current flagship activities is continued, IDGEC is taking on two new research foci: (1) water and (2) environment and trade. The project will also conduct research on the IHDP crosscutting theme of vulnerability, resilience and adaptation. The project will further engage in collaborative research activities with the new IHDP core projects on Urbanization and Land (Global Land Project - GLP) as well as with the joint ESS-P projects on carbon (GCP), food (GECAFS), and water (GWSP). One example of research thus far includes the role of institutions in California's climate change policy:

Implementation without Ratification: Vertical Interplay and the Case of California's Climate Change Policy Institutions are clusters of rights, rules, and decision-making procedures that give rise to social practices, assign roles to participants in these practices, and govern interactions among players of those roles. Institutions operate at all levels of social organization, and interact both horizontally, i.e., at the same level of social organization, and vertically, i.e., across levels of social organization. Interdependence between institutions can be either functional or political in nature. The former occurs when a problem addressed by multiple institutions is linked in biophysical or socio-economic terms, while the latter arises when actors seek to link institutions deliberately in the interests of pursuing individual or collective goals, often to enhance institutional effectiveness. Carbon Intensities for California and Selected Countries - 1995 (Source: California Energy Commission 2002, at http://www.energy.ca.gov/ reports/600-02-001F/)

The objective of this research project is to examine the nature of interplay between international and regional level institutions. The Bush Administration's withdrawl of the United States from the Kyoto Protocol has created a situation where arrangements for reducing greenhouse gas emissions are being developed at both international and regional levels despite reluctance do to so at the national level. Hence, although the United States are unwilling to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, several US states have declared their resolve to meet the country's seven percent unratified reduction commitment individually. The state of California serves as the focus of this research project. It has recently proposed not only to promote solar energy, but also to build a hydrogen highway along its major freeways.

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The research project will explore the decision-making competence of state-level governance to implement commitments made at the international level. It will investigate the compatibility of the provisions set up under international agreements with the social practices prevailing at the regional level. Finally, it will evaluate to what extent the regional level capacity and material resources are sufficient to meet commitments made at the international level. Heike Schröder, IDGEC Executive Officer, Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, USA

Activities of IDGEC in 2003/2004 IDGEC co-sponsored and took part in several conferences and workshops: 02/03

International Studies Association (ISA) Convention, Portland, OR, USA

08/03

The International Association for the Study of Common Property (IASCP) Northern Polar Regional Conference, Anchorage, AK, USA

10/03

Open Meeting (see below) and Annual SSC Meeting, Montreal, Canada

11/03

Duke Workshop on “Assessing the Performance of EEZs - Fisheries Management, Trade and Human Livelihoods”, Beaufort, NC, USA

03/04

International Studies Association (ISA), Montreal, Canada

06/04

Annual SSC Meeting, Santa Barbara, CA, USA

IDGEC's endorsements include, among others, the Global Governance Project at the Free University of Berlin, Germany.

Involvement of IDGEC in Broader IHDP Activities At the 5th Open Meeting of the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Research Community in Montreal, October 16-18, IDGEC convened and hosted two panel sessions on Fit, Interplay and Scale and The Institutional Dimensions of Global Climate Change as well as one session on Global Politics of Carbon Emissions, in conjunction with the Global Carbon Project (GCP). IDGEC Scientific Steering Committee (SSC) Chair Oran Young also chaired the discussion at the Open Forum on the Implementation of the Global Carbon Project. The IDGEC SSC meeting was held back-to-back to the Open Meeting. IDGEC's involvement in the development of the Global Carbon Project's (GCP) Science Plan has been crucial. Oran Young is the Co-Chair of the GCP SSC. Given IDGEC's ongoing research activitiy on carbon management, obvious areas of interlinkages between the two projects are institutional dimensions of carbon sequestration versus decarbonization, incentive/reward structures, and the scenario approach. IDGEC has integrated IHDP's crosscutting theme on vulnerability, resilience and adaptation into its research. Also, opportunities of liaison with the planned IHDP core projects on Urbanization, the Global Land Project and the “New” LOICZ are being explored. The Arafura-Timor Sea Forum (ATSF) and sea-level rise as a result of climate change (with its institutional implications) were identified as examples of potential areas of collaboration with LOICZ.

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11/04

IDGEC/LUCC Workshop “Beyond Multiple Regression: Interactive drivers in coupled human-natural systems”, Bonn, Germany

12/04

IT/IDGEC Conference “The Berlin Conference on the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change: The Greening of Policies Interlinkages of Policy Integration”, Berlin, Germany

Research

Publications In 2003, IDGEC continued with the publication of its electronic newsletter, IDGECnews, and produced a Biennial Report for 2001-2003. For 2004, IDGEC is again organizing panels at ISA and IASCP and plans to update and reprint its Science Plan. The revitalization of the IDGEC website is another activity in 2004. Ebbin, S., A.H. Hoel, A.K. Sydnes (eds.) 2004. A Sea Change: The Exclusive Economic Zone and Governance Institutions for Marine Resources. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands. Kanowski, P. and M. Wasson 2003. The Potential of the Kyoto Protocol Flexibility Mechanisms to Support Sustainable Forest Management in the Asia-Pacific Region. Australian Government Press, Canberra, Austria. Lebel, L. 2004. Institutional Dynamics and Interplay: Critical Processes for Forest Governance and Sustainability in the Mountain Regions of Northern Thailand. IGBP Mountain Research Initiative Book, Stockholm, Sweden. Young, O. and A. Underdal (eds.) 2004. Regime Consequences: Methodological Challenges and Research Strategies. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.

IDGEC Scientific Steering Committee Oran Young Chair Russell Reichelt Deputy Chair

Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, USA CRC Reef Research Center, Townsville, Australia

Daniel Arce Joyeeta Gupta

Rhodes College, Memphis, Tennessee, USA Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands Department of Political Science, University of Tromsø, Tromsø, Norway Faculty of Environment, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada Global Environment Facility, Washington, D.C., USA Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku, Finland (until 10/03) FAO - SDAA, Italy (until 10/03) Wetlands and Water Resources Programme of IUCN, Senegal Institute for Scientific and Technological Research and Services, King Mongkut’s University of Technology, Bangkok, Thailand Pelangi Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Tokyo, Japan (until 10/03) University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway International Institutions Analyst, RMAP Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies Australian National University, Canberra, Australia

Alf Hakon Hoel Leslie King Song Li Jyrki Luukkanen Paul Mathieu Madiodio Niasse Suparb Pasong Agus Sari Taishi Sugiyama Arild Underdal Merrilyn Wasson

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IDGEC International Project Office Heike Schrรถder, Executive Officer Bren School of Environmental Science and Management University of California, 4526 Bren Hall Santa Barbara, California 93106-5131 USA T: +01 805 893 8437 F: +01 805 893 7064 IDGEC@bren.ucsb.edu

http://fiesta.bren.ucsb.edu/~idgec

3.1.4

Land-Use and Land-Cover Change (LUCC) The Land-Use and Land-Cover Change Project (LUCC) is an IHDP core science project co-sponsored together with IGBP. LUCC has made significant scientific progress in the past years and will culminate in 2005. LUCC is therefore engaged in synthesizing much of the research that has been undertaken, highlighting research products and activities.

Objectives: to obtain a better understanding of global land-use and land-cover driving forces to investigate and document temporal and geographical dynamics of landuse and land-cover to define the links between sustainability and various land-uses to understand the inter-relationship between land-use and land-cover change, biogeochemistry and climate

LUCC has three focus areas: Focus 1: Land-Use Dynamics - Comparative Case Study Approach Land-use dynamics is a comparative case study approach aimed at improving our understanding of the variation of the nature-society dynamics of land management, thereby facilitating regional and global modelling. It aims to identify and analyse a series of regional situations that represent the major clusters of LUCC dynamics world-wide, thus permitting spatial and temporal fine-tuning of the overall modelling effort as well as providing the local, and, with Focus 2, regional understanding that is vital for climate impact and sustainability research. Focus 2: Land-Cover Dynamics - Empirical Observations and Diagnostic Models Land-cover dynamics involves regional assessment of land-cover change as determined from direct observation (e.g. satellite imagery and field studies) and models built from these observations. It seeks to provide spatial specificity in the land-cover outcomes associated with the management of particular land uses. Focus 3: Regional and Global Integrated Models Regional and global models aim to improve upon existing models and build new ones that provide a basis for projecting land-use changes in the underlying caus-

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es or driving forces. These models will incorporate the regional and sensitivity provided from Foci 1 and 2 to generate more spatially explicit outcomes from regional and global models. Integrating activities are analysis of available data and data classification, as well as scalar dynamics.

Project Development Scientific progress has been made in all three Focus areas. Under Focus 1 (Land Use Dynamics) the synthesis of information on the causes of land-use change from the case studies on causal and contextual factors was broadened in 2003 so as to include global drylands and agricultural core areas in the tropics. This includes implications for land-use policies. Causal synergies prevail, and most of the causal patterns vary by region. It was found that the global/international scale matters far less in desertification than it does, for example, in tropical deforestation. It was also found that a great deal of relevant desertification causes could be located at the national scale of government policies. Under Focus 2 (Land-Cover Dynamics) the group of N. Ramankutty synthesized satellite-derived land-cover data and agricultural census data to produce global data sets of the distribution of 18 major crops around the world. This new data set includes the distinction between C3- and C4-based physiology crops hat are relevant to the global carbon cycle, and the analysis of how different crops are grown in combination to form major crop belts throughout the world. Further, the patterns of crop diversification across the world have been analysed. The respective paper can be downloaded at http://landuse.sage.wisc.edu/~navin/pub Under Focus 3 (Regional and Global Models) there is a growing shift towards integrated models. Integration concerns not only coupling human and environment systems, but also the involvement of policy makers and other stakeholders, employing participatory methods. Particularly important is the link between narrative storylines that form the basis for qualitative scenarios, and quantitative scenarios that can be used as an input in spatially explicit models. A link has been developed with the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) which aims at assessing the state of the world's ecosystems and human well-being (http:// www.millenniumassessment.org). Here, the development of multi-scale scenarios is pivotal to the method. It includes the development of four global scenarios (involvement of J. Alcamo) and as many as 30 sub global assessments (involvement of T. Veldkamp and Focus 3 staff). Innovative methods have been developed and are being tested to link qualitative storylines and quantitative models, and to downscale global scenarios and link them to locally developed ones. Within Focus 3 multi-scale narrative scenarios are being linked to (multi-scale) spatially explicit models, e.g. the CLUE modelling framework developed at today's Focus 3 Office, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands. Stakeholders involved in the scenario development process include policy makers and local farmers as well as citizens, journalists and students. The integration of stakeholders necessarily involves coupling socio-economic and environmental factors (for details about participatory scenario development, see http://www.icis.

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unimaas.nl/medaction/download.html. The development of more integrated models is indispensable for a better understanding of complex systems and the roles of emergent and path-dependent properties of those systems but also to address issues like vulnerability and human well-being. Other scientific activities in 2003/2004 include the linking of SALU, the Sahelian Land-Use Change Model, with regional climate models. This has provided more realistic scenarios and the model run i.e. suggests that land use change was not the principal driver of the prolonged Sahel drought experienced in recent decades. In the next two years, bridging Focus 1 (Land-Use Dynamics) and Focus 3 (Modelling) work will be of overriding importance.

Integrating Spatial and Actor-Based LUCC Research in the Philippines: Agrarian Change and Deforestation in North East Luzon Land-use change is influenced by many bio-physical and socio-economic factors. Different disciplines within LUCC have different foci in their research and try to explain land-use changes from their own perspective and at different scales and levels. In this project process-oriented research methodology from the social sciences (Action-in-Context) is combined with system based, pattern-oriented research originating from geography (CLUE approach: http://www.cluemodel.nl). Action-in-Context is a conceptual approach for actor-oriented research, which investigates causal relations and options and motivations of farmers. CLUE is a spatially explicit land-use change model based on a top down approach of spatial analysis of land use patterns. The integration leads to the development of two different modelling approaches that help to explore scenarios of future land use change: a multi-agent model that captures human-environment interactions at the community level and a spatial model that combines the strengths of actor-oriented and geographical approaches at the watershed level. Fig. 1: Observed Land-Use Map of 2001 and a Simulated Land-Use Map (CLUE model) of 2016

The objectives of the first modelling approach are to achieve better understanding in the social and biophysical complexity of land-use change at the microlevel and to build a modelling toolbox incorporating multi-agent techniques that can be used to explore the dynamics of land-use change in the area. The Action-

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In-Context methodology is used as a framework to study options and motivations of the actor, actor environment relations and the interactions and relations between actors. The result is a spatially explicit model that can deal with dynamic processes like migration, expansion of agricultural area and actor behaviour. All output of the model originates from the decision making structure and not from the spatial analysis of land-use change patterns. In the second model, the actor-oriented research from project one, which provides information about causality and land-use change processes, is combined with empirical findings (multi-variate statistics) to describe relations between land-use and its explanatory factors at the watershed level. This information is incorporated in a CLUE model at the watershed level. The actor-oriented research provides the strong causal relations that explain the empirical findings. The resulting model simulates future scenarios in a spatially explicit manner (fig. 1). The two approaches are complementary: information and results are shared to ensure consistency between the models. Although both approaches and models have similar objectives they provide insights at different levels and provide different and complementary types of information to better target interventions for sustainable development. Koen P. Overmars (a, b), Peter H. Verburg (a), Marco G.A. Huigen (b, c), W.T. de Groot (b), A. Veldkamp (a) a) Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, The Netherlands b) Center of Environmental Science, Leiden University, The Netherlands c) University of Nijmegen, The Netherlands More information can be found in: Huigen M.G.A. 2004. First principles of the MameLuke multi-actor modelling framework for land-use change, illustrated with a Philippine case study. Journal of Environmental Management 72 (1-2), 5-21. Overmars, K.P., Verburg, P.H. In Press. Analysis of land use drivers at the watershed and household level: Linking two paradigms at the Philippine forest fringe. International Journal of Geographical Information Science. Verburg, P.H., Veldkamp, A. 2004. Projecting land-use transitions at forest fringes in the Philippines at two spatial scales. Landscape Ecology 19 (1), 77-98.

Activities of LUCC in 2003/2004 Besides the intensified cooperation with the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) and the completion of Focus 1 work (Meta-analysis of Desertification - encompassing causes, rates, indicators and pathways), other major LUCC activities are the preparation of the 2nd NASA/LUCC Colloquium in Baku, Azerbaijan 2004, the production of LUCC newsletters, and preparations for the transition from LUCC to the Global Land Project (see 3.3.2), as LUCC will conclude in October 2005. LUCC co-sponsored and took part in several conferences and workshops: 04/03

LUCC-GECaFS Indo-Gangetic Plain Research Planning Workshop, Kathmandu, Nepal

04/03

Conference on “Integrating Knowledge on Spatial Dynamics in Socioeconomic and Environmental Systems for Spatial Planning”, Utrecht, The Netherlands

05/03

Focus 1 Workshop on “Land-Change in Sub-Saharan Africa”, Wageningen, The Netherlands

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05/03

Regional Network Workshop on “Integrated Land-Use Change Analysis in Southern Africa”, Blantyre, Malawi

06/03

LUCC Scientific Steering Committee Meeting, Banff, Canada

08/03

Colloquium on “Studying Land-Use Effects in Coastal Zones with Remote Sensing and GIS”, Antalya, Turkey

10/03

Focus 1 Workshop on “Land-Change in South-East Asia”, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA

12/03

Workshop on “Transition in Agriculture and Future Land-Use Patterns”, Wageningen, The Netherlands

12/03

LAND Open Science Conference on “Integrated Research on Coupled Human-Environment Systems”, Morelia, Mexico

12/03

Regional Network Colloquium on “LUCC Contribution to Asian Environmental Problems”, Bogor, Indonesia

04/04

LUCC Scientific Steering Committee Meeting, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium; the meeting has been devoted to synthesis work for a final LUCC book publication

09/04

LUCC Synthesis Workshop on “Global Scenarios on Land-Use/LandCover Change”, Kassel, Germany

10/04

Joint International Workshop on “Integrated Assessment of the Land System”, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

04/05

4th International NASA/LUCC Colloquium, Baku, Azerbaijan

Involvement of LUCC in Broader IHDP Activities 08/04

LUCC-Carbon Workshop on “Impacts of Changes in Land-Use and Management of Carbon Stocks and Turn-Over in the Tropics”, Copenhagen, Denmark

11/04

LUCC-IDGEC Workshop “Beyond Multiple Regression: Interactive Drivers in Coupled Human-Natural Systems”, Bonn, Germany

02/05

LUCC-IT Workshop on Social Ecology: “From LTER to LTSER: Conceptualizing the Socio-Economic Dimension of Long-Term SocioEcological Research”, Vienna, Austria

Publications LUCC has published a great number of synthesis papers, book chapters and journal articles in 2003 that cannot all be named here. LUCC activities will be channelled into a final synthesis process and crystallized in a book publication for Springer Verlag in 2005. Haberl, H., M. Wackernagel and T. Wrbka (eds.) 2004. Land Use and Sustainability Indicators. Special Issue of Land Use Policy, 21. Lambin, E.F. and H. J. Geist 2003. Regional Differences in Tropical Deforestation. Environment, 45. 22-36. Leff, B., N. Ramankutty and J. A. Foley 2004. Geographic Distribution of Major Crops across the World. Global Biogeochemical Cycles. 18 (1). Turner II, B. L., J. Geoghegan, D. Foster (eds.) 2004. Final Frontiers: Integrated Land-Change Science and Tropical Deforestation in the Southern Yucatán. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.

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LUCC Scientific Steering Committee Eric Lambin Chair Lisa Graumlich Vice-Chair Emilio F. Moran Focus 1 Leader Ryosuke Shibasaki Focus 2 Leader Tom Veldkamp Focus 3 Leader

Department of Geography, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvainla-Neuve, Belgium, Mountain Research Center, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT USA Department of Anthropology, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, USA; Center for Spatial Information Science and Institute of Industrial Science, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan Laboratory of Soil Science and Geology, Wageningen Agricultural University, Wageningen, The Netherlands

S. Babatunde Agbola Joseph M. Alcamo

Center for Urban and Regional Planning, University of Ibadan, Nigeria Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Kassel, Germany Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), Sao José dos Campos, Brazil Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Agricultural University of Norway, As, Norway Space Applications Center, Indian Space Research Organization, Ahmedabad, India Department of Geography, McGill University, Montreal, Canada University of the Philippines Los Baños (UPLB), Laguna, Philippines Department of Geography, University Kebangsaan, Bangi, Malaysia Institute for Environmental Studies, Climate, People and Environment Program (CPEP), University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, USA International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya Carolina Population Center, Department of Sociology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, USA Water, Hazard & Environmental Management, International Center for Integrated Mountain Development, Kathmandu, Nepal

Diógenes S. Alves Arild Angelsen Abha Chhabra Oliver T. Coomes Felino P. Lansigan Sh. M. Syed Abdullah Navin Ramankutty Robin S. Reid Ronald R. Rindfuss Jianchu Xu

LUCC International Project Office Helmut Geist, Executive Officer Department of Geography Université catholique de Louvain Place Louis Pasteur, 3 B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium T: +32 10 47 26 73 F: +32 10 47 28 77 lucc.ipo@geog.ucl.ac.be

http://www.geo.ucl.ac.be/LUCC

3.2. New Core Research Project 3.2.1 Land - Ocean Interactions in The Coastal Zone (LOICZ) Land - Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone (LOICZ) is the newest research project co-sponsored by IGBP and IHDP. It studies the world's coastal zones as heterogeneous, relatively small but highly productive, dynamic and sensitive sys-

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tems that provide a significant proportion of the life support systems of most societies. The Earth's coastal zones are one of the study areas where changes in various components of the Earth system affecting and altering their role in global cycles have been observed. It has become clear that irrespective of the improved knowledge on coastal system metabolism, the understanding of the complex interactions between society and environment in coastal zones under global environmental pressures is still limited. Consequently, the “New” LOICZ aims to provide an integrated framework to address the primary issues of sustainable human use of coastal systems with vulnerability of coasts and risks for human uses playing a key role. The “New” LOICZ will examine to a much greater extent the linkages amongst various sectors and regimes in the coastal zone rather than viewing each sector and regime in isolation. Furthermore, an important underlying principle of the “New” LOICZ framework is to continuously engage in a “science-policy-public” dialogue addressing scientific information needs as well as human development and implementation issues.

Project Development Following on earlier considerations about mutual agendas and potential for cooperation, the IHDP SC decided to become a scientific co-sponsor of the “New” LOICZ in March 2004. The Science Plan of the “New” LOICZ has seen considerable input from representatives of all IHDP core projects. Meanwhile the central document matured into a Science Plan and Implementation Strategy approved by the IGBP SC and the IHDP SC. The “New” LOICZ is now a core project of both IGBP and IHDP. The partnership was affirmed by four IHDP representatives with close connections to the core projects having joined the LOICZ Scientific Steering Committee.

Main Research Foci: (1) Vulnerability of coastal systems and hazards to human societies sets the stage for the subsequent themes that address special parts of the wider coastal domain. (2) Implications of global change and land- and sea-use on coastal development focuses on spatial, temporal, and organizational issues of how changes in land and sea-use influence natural resources availability and natural systems sustainability. (3) Anthropogenic influences on the river catchment and coastal zone interaction addresses river catchment-based drivers/pressures that influence and change the coastal domain. (4) Fate and transformation of materials in coastal and shelf waters focuses on the cycling of carbon, nutrients and sediments in the coastal and shelf waters and their exchange with the ocean. (5) Towards coastal system sustainability by managing land-ocean interactions provides an overarching integration cutting across the four other themes.

At the 5th Open Meeting of the Human Dimensions of the Global Environmental Change Research Community in Montreal, Canada, October 2003, LOICZ co-sponsored a panel on Global Environmental Change and Coastal Systems: A Microcosm of Coupled Human-Environmental Systems together with GECHS, IDGEC and GLOBEC (core project of IGBP).

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LOICZ Scientific Steering Committee (SSC) Liana Talaue McManus Chair Han Lindeboom Jozef Pacyna Vice-Chair Wim Salomons

(since 01/04) Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA (Past Chair until 12/03) Alterra, Den Burg, The Netherlands (since 01/04) Norwegian Institute for Air Research, Kjeller, Norway (Past Vice-Chair, until 12/03) Institute of Environmental Studies VUIVM, Groningen, The Netherlands

Elena Andreeva

(since 05/04), Laboratory of Arctic Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia Peter Burbridge Regional Planning Resource Development and Environmental Management, Comrie, UK Robert Costanza Gund Institute of Ecological Economics, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, USA Laura David Marine Science Institute, University of the Philippines, Quezon City, Philippines William Dennison (since 05/04), Centre for Environmental Science, University of Maryland, Cambridge, MD, USA Luiz Drude de Lacerda LABOMAR, Universidade Federal do Ceara, Fortaleza, Brazil A.T. Forbes Marine and Estuarine Research, University of Natal, Durban, South Africa Shu Gao Department of Geo-Ocean Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China Alison Gilbert (since 05/04), Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, The Netherlands Weigen Huang State Oceanic Administration, Hangzhou, China Isao Koike (since 05/04), Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Japan Felino Lansigan (since 05/04), University of the Philippines Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines Michel Meybeck Laboratoire de Geologie Appliquée, Université de Paris, Paris, France Alice Newton (until 05/04), Faculty of Science and Technology, University of Algarve, Faro, Portugal John Parslow CSIRO Marine Research, Hobart, Australia Gerardo M.E. Perillo (until 12/03), Institute for Environmental Studies, VU-IVM, Groningen, The Netherlands Nancy N. Rabalais (since 05/04), Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium, Chauvin, LA, USA Juan D. Restrepo (since 05/04), Department of Geological Sciences, EAFIT University, Medellín, Colombia Eva Roth (since 05/04), Department of Environmental and Business Economics, University of Southern Denmark, Esbjerg, Denmark Yoshiki Saito Geological Survey of Japan, AIST, Tsukuba, Japan Maria Snoussi Département des Sciences de la Terre, Rabat, Morocco James P.M. Syvitski Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA Allan K. Whitfield (since 05/04), South African Institute for Aquatic Biodiversity, Grahamstown, South Africa Nalin Wikramanayake (since 05/04), Coastal Engineering Unit, Open University of Sri Lanka, Nugegoda, Sri Lanka

LOICZ International Project Office Hartwig Kremer, Executive Officer Martin Le Tissier, Deputy Executive Officer

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CEO, Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research P.O. Box 59 NL-1790 AB Den Burg Texel, The Netherlands T: +31 222 369404 F: +31 222 269430 kremer@nioz.nl tissier@nioz.nl

http://www.loicz.org

3.3

Core Research Projects Under Development

3.3.1 Urbanization Urban areas are complex and dynamic systems that reproduce within their territory the interactions among socio-economic, geopolitical, and environmental processes on a local, regional, and global scale. The interactions of urban areas with global environmental change are bi-directional with a large proportion of the human impact on these changes originating in urban areas but its consequences in turn having severe effects on urban areas and on the urban poor in particular. Both aspects, however, have been understudied, particularly the latter one. The specific focus of this new Urbanization Project will be on understanding the nature of the interactions between global environmental change and urban processes, the direction, rate, intensity and scale of these processes as well as the challenge of global environmental change to the functioning, stability and sustainability of urban areas.

Main Research Foci: (1) Urban processes that contribute to global environmental change This section includes questions on lifestyles and consumption patterns, urban land use and land cover change as well as the effects of social and biophysical â&#x20AC;&#x153;teleconnectionsâ&#x20AC;?. (2) Pathways through which global environmental change affects the urban system This section explores the consequences of global environmental changes on human behavior and interactions, their contribution to shaping the built environment and their impact on the resource base upon which urban systems rely. (3) Interactions and responses within the urban system This section poses questions on how interactions between the human and the physical systems shape the impact of and the responses to global environmental change as well as their consequences for urban livelihoods. (4) Consequences of interactions within urban systems on global environmental change This section focuses on the feedbacks of interactions within the urban system to various components of global environmental change.

Project Development The Urbanization Initiative pushed forward the development of its Science Plan in 2003 and 2004 during a number of meetings. After integrating the comments of

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the IHDP-SC in March 2004 into the Urbanization Science Plan, much of this year will be devoted to creating a project structure for the implementation of the plan and finding funding for a project office. The Inter American Institute on Global Change Research (IAI) has given a small grant for starting up a network of researchers in Latin America. IHDP has co-sponsored several workshops on urbanization. 10/03

The Urbanization Initiative organized two well-received panels on The Interactions between Global Environmental Change and Urban Processes at the 5th Open Meeting of the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Research Community, Montreal, Canada, October 2003.

11/03

Roundtable on Megacities of the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG), Bensberg, Germany

12/03

Workshop “Changements Globeaux: Vulnérabilité, Adaptabilité, Apprentissage” at the French Ministry for Research and New Technologies, Paris, France

03/04

IAI-IHDP Workshop “Can Cities Reduce Global Warming? Urban Development and the Carbon Cycle”, Mexico City, Mexico

03/04

Association of American Geographers Annual Meeting, Philadelphia, USA

05/04

International Conference on the “Urban Dimensions of Environmental Change: Science, Exposures, Policies and Technologies”, Shanghai, China

06/04

Presentation of the new IHDP Urbanization Project at the Meeting of the US National Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change, Washington D.C., USA

08/04

Sessions on “Megacities and Global Change” at the 30th Congress of the International Geographical Union, Glasgow, UK

09/04

IAI-IHDP Capacity Building Workshop “IAI Institute on Urbanization and Global Environmental Change in Latin America”, Mexico City, Mexico

12/04

“Asian Megacities and Global Sustainability”, organized by the Japan Science Council, Tokyo, Japan

Chair of the Urbanization Project Planning Team is Roberto Sánchez-Rodríguez (UC MEXUS, University of California, Riverside, USA), Vice-Chair of the IHDP Scientific Committee.

3.3.2

Global Land Project (GLP) The Global Land Project (GLP) is the planned successor of the jointly sponsored IGBP/IHDP core project LUCC (to finish 10/05) and the IGBP core project on Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems (GCTE) (closed 11/03). The Global Land Project will focus on the interactions of people, biota, and natural resources of terrestrial and aquatic systems. The Science Plan emphasizes the study of changes in the coupled human-environmental system at local to regional scales. Changes in coupled human-environmental systems also affect the rates of cycling of energy, water, elements, and biota at the global level, while global-level changes in political economy, such as international treaties and market liberalization, in turn affect decisions about resources at local and regional levels. The research goal of the GLP is to measure, model and understand the coupled human-environmental system (“land system”) as part of broader efforts to address changes in Earth processes and subsequent social, economic and political consequences.

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Project Development At the 2nd IGBP Congress in Banff, Canada and the Land Open Science Conference in Morelia, Mexico, the Science Plan of the new Global Land Project was significantly changed to develop an integrated perspective on what was defined as the coupled human-environmental system or simply “land system”. 06/03

Transition Team Meeting of LAND at the 2nd IGBP Congress, Banff, Canada

12/03

LAND Open Science Conference on Integrated Research on Coupled Human-Environment Systems, Morelia, Mexico, co-sponsored by IHDP

03/04

Regional Expert Meeting of LAND on the “Implementation of the Global Land Project from a Human Dimensions Perspective”, Bonn, Germany, organized by IHDP

The results of the discussions in both Banff and Morelia have been integrated into the draft Science Plan, which was reviewed by six independent reviewers, three of them nominated by IHDP. The plan is currently undergoing review. Chairs of the Global Land Project Transition Team are Dennis Ojima (Colorado State University, Boulder, CO, USA) and Emilio Moran (Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, USA). http://www.glp.colostate.edu/plan.htm

3.4

IHDP Mid-Term Review In the last couple of years IHDP has developed into a broad and widely recognized platform coordinating human dimensions research on global environmental change. Therefore it seems to be timely and necessary to take stock and analyse what IHDP has achieved up to now. At its meeting in 2003 the IHDP Scientific Committee decided to start such a process. The goal is to produce a mid-term synthesis of the programme's main contributions to key questions of global environmental change, thereby providing a solid basis for further strategic developments of human dimensions research. Such a process should enable the crafting of IHDP's vision for the next ten years and help reframe IHDP's role within global change research and the social sciences in general. The mid-term synthesis process will lead to overview publications on IHDP research, enhancing the overall visibility of the programme. IHDP will also make a strong effort to link the outcomes of the stocktaking effort to policy-makers and find means how to translate them into policy arenas and ultimately into action. Several meetings were organized in 2003 and 2004 in order to structure, co-ordinate and implement this process:

10/03

Side event at the 5th Open Meeting of the Human Dimensions on Global Environmental Change Research Community, Montreal, Canada

12/03

Executive Officers and Project Leaders Meeting, Cuernavaca, Mexico

03/04

IHDP SC Meeting, Bonn, Germany

07/04

Preparatory Meeting Arizona Workshop 2005, Arizona State University, Phoenix, USA (B. Göbel, S. van der Leeuw)

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Preparatory Meeting Arizona Workshop 2005, University of Indiana, Bloomington, USA (B. Göbel, S. van der Leeuw, M. Janssen, L. Ostrom)

One component of the mid-term synthesis process will be to summarize the outcomes of the analysis of IHDP's crosscutting questions: (1) Vulnerability/Resilience/Adaptation, (2) Thresholds/Transitions, (3) Governance, and (4) Social Learning/Knowledge. This should be accompanied by a systematic discussion on the more general questions of multiple causalities and multilevel interplay. Three SC members - Elinor Ostrom, Gilberto Gallopín and Carl Folke - are “spearheading” the process of a comprehensive synthesis paper on the contributions of IHDP to the first crosscutting theme, Vulnerability/Resilience/Adaptation with close collaboration from the core projects. The synthesis paper will be accompanied by an annotated bibliography. Starting with a workshop in Phoenix, Arizona, USA in February 2005 and ending with a series of publications, these synthesis papers will be used as opening statements for a more encompassing discussion on where IHDP research is located in the broader social science landscape and what the programme's future scientific challenges are. At the 6th Open Meeting of the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Research Community, Bonn, Germany in October 2005, the first results of this mid-term review process will be presented. The scientific development, in relation to IHDP research, of the second cross-cutting theme, Thresholds/Transitions will follow next. Another component of the mid-term review process is to start to assess the contributions of the core research projects, taking into account their different stages of development. While LUCC is closing at the end of 2005, GECHS, IDGEC, and IT are entering their second phase, currently discussing the priorities for the upcoming years and identifying new thematic foci. As part of this process the core projects are increasingly involved in joint activities that will lead to increasing convergences and complementarities in their research. One example is the IDGEC/ LUCC Workshop “Beyond Multiple Regression: Interactive drivers in coupled human-natural systems”, Bonn, Germany (November 2004); another, the LUCC/ IT workshop “From LTER to LTSER: Conceptualizing the socio-economic dimension of long-term socio-ecological research”, Vienna, Austria (February 2005). In addition to the internal assessment of IHDP, the programme's sponsors, ICSU and ISSC, are currently organizing an external assessment of IHDP to be carried out between October 2004 and May 2005. The outcomes of the external assessment are a crucial complement to the results of the internal assessment for developing the programme's strategic plan for the next ten years.

3.5

Earth System Science Partnership (ESS-P) IHDP's research activities are increasingly being carried out in collaboration with its international partner programmes on global environmental change: DIVERSITAS (International Programme on Biodiversity), IGBP (International GeosphereBiosphere Programme), and WCRP (World Climate Research Programme). Together these four global change programmes are developing the Earth System Science Partnership (ESS-P). Core ESS-P activities are: (1) Joint projects on

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issues of sustainability which build on the research of the four programmes, (2) Integrated Regional Studies, i.e. the Monsoon Area Integrated Regional Studies (MAIRS), (3) Earth System Analysis and Modelling, (4) Global Change Open Science Conferences (planned for 2006), and (5) START (Global Change System for Analysis, Research and Training) for capacity building and regional research.

3.5.1

Global Carbon Project (GCP) The ESS-P joint Global Carbon Project (GCP) was launched after its approval at the Chairs and Directors Meeting in 2001 in Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Its Science Plan and Implementation Strategy was completed in 2003 and published the same year (The Global Carbon Project: A framework for internationally co-ordinated research on the global carbon cycle, ESSP Report 1, Canberra). The GCP integrates atmospheric, oceanic, terrestrial and socioeconomic and political components of the carbon-climate-human system - with commitment and balanced input from the three sponsoring global environmental change programmes (IGBP, IHDP, WCRP). It has developed an international framework for carbon research and investigates system-wide questions of interactions between humans and the carbon cycle, and its interactions with climate. National and regional studies contribute to the implementation of the project. The scientific goals of the Global Carbon Project are to develop a complete picture of the global carbon cycle, including both its biophysical and human dimensions together with the interactions and feedbacks between them.

Thematic Foci: (1) Patterns and variability: What are the current geographical and temporal distributions of the major pools and fluxes in the global carbon cycle? (2) Processes and interactions: What are the control and feedback mechanisms both anthopogenic and non-anthropogenic - that determine the dynamics of the carbon cycle? (3) Carbon management: What are the dynamics of the carbon-climate-human system into the future, and what points of intervention and windows of opportunity exist for human societies to manage this system?

Structural Development In April 2004, GCP opened its second International Project Office at Japan's National Institute for Environmental Studies in Tsukuba. Penelope Canan is the new Executive Director of the office moving from University of Denver, Colorado, USA, where she is a sociology professor. She has long-term experience in bridging natural and social sciences, as well as science and policy making. In her new office, Penelope Canan has induced the â&#x20AC;&#x153;Tsukuba Seminar Seriesâ&#x20AC;?, starting from June until December 2004.

Project Development One example of science activities linked to GCP is the project entitled:

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Pathways of Regional Development and the Carbon Cycle The distribution of carbon on the Earth has changed dramatically over the past 300 years (Houghton and Skole 1990; Ayres et al. 1994). Humans have exerted a strong influence on these transformations through diverse, interacting mechanisms, including agriculture, forestry, urbanization, and industrialization. These impacts on the carbon cycle occurred in the context of dynamic, demographic, and technological trends, institutional settings, and politics. Societies have been affected by these transformations (vulnerability), and they have also responded in ways that have the potential to feed back on the carbon cycle. These issues have been addressed in the literature in notions like adaptation and mitigation (Kelly and Adger 2000). Different theories may be used to explain transformations of the carbon cycle. Some such, as neoclassical or neoinstitutional, offer pathways of single-factor causation (Ostrom 1990). Others look for more complex explanations, such as direct causes, underlying forces (Turner et al. 1990, Geist and Lambin 2001), or the world economy approach (Braudel 1984). In this project, the key role of history and world economy approaches for understanding patterns of change in the carbon cycle, and ways that carbon-relevant societal actions (land changes and energy use) manifest different regional and temporal dynamics are explored. Three regional development patterns with different carbon cycle consequences are focal points of the research. These development patterns are core, rim, and peripheral. The emergence of core, rim, and peripheral regions underlies diverse, carbonrelevant, regional pathways of development. Some carbon-relevant features are common to all regions, such as demographic concentration in urban areas and intensification of agriculture. These features can be managed through similar policy strategies, but only if they take into consideration the socio-economic, political, and cultural configuration of each region. Other key characteristics are differentiated in regional and historical terms. Core regions, for instance, have by far the highest share of international trade, production, energy consumption, and carbon emissions. Their responsibility in the design of mitigation and adaptation policies is consequently much higher. Some cores have become less intensive, while development patterns of some rims are leading to more intensive energy use and carbon emissions. Most of the peripheries are confronted with the basic issues of equity, governance, and the need for alternative models of economic growth. Fig. 3: Carbon Dioxide Emissions per Regions (Million Metric Tons Carbon Equivalent) 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 Y_1991 Y_1995 Y_2000*

1000 800 600 400 200 0 Middle East

Asia (rim)

Asia (peri)

Eastern Europe

Latin America (per)

South Africa (rim)

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Differences in development patterns demand a range of different carbon-related policies. Actions aimed at reducing CO2 emissions are, for instance, most appropriate for cores. Policies aimed at reducing social disparities, increasing local financial capacities, and strengthening institutional settings are key for many rims and peripheries. All regions are confronted by paradoxes. Industrialization, the key driver of development in core and rim regions, is at the heart of deep and irreversible transformations of the carbon cycle. Nevertheless, these industrialized regions are better endowed to promote development policies with positive consequences for the carbon cycle, such as urban and environmental planning. Might they also be better able than the peripheries to undertake mitigation and cope with the social implications of change? The latter bear a much smaller responsibility for altering the carbon cycle. In addition, they are confronted by pressing issues (social segregation, financial constraints), which may constrain their capacities for mitigation and adaptation. Patricia Romero Lankao, GCP SSC Patricia Romero Lankao 2003. Pathways of regional development and the carbon cycle. In: Toward CO2 Stabilization: Issues, Strategies, and Consequences, C. Field, C. and M. Raupach (eds.), Island Press, Washington.

Acticities of GCP in 2003-2004 02/03

Synthesis Workshop “Towards CO2 Stabilization”, Ubatuba, Brazil

03/03

CarboEurope Conference, Lisbon, Portugal

10/03

Session on GCP Open Forum: Intergrating Human Dimensions into Global Carbon Research at the 5th Open Meeting on Human Dimensions Research, Montreal, Canada

12/03

SCOPE-GCP side event “Towards CO2 Stabilization” at the FCCCCOP9, Milan, Italy

01/04

Workshop on “Ocean Surface pCO2”, Tsukuba, Japan

05/04

Project Meeting “Urban Development and the Carbon Cycle in Latin America”, Mexico City, Mexico

06/04

Data and Synthesis Workshop “Understanding North-Pacific CarbonCycle Changes”, Seattle, WA,USA

11/04

Workshop on “Regional Carbon Budgets Methodologies”, Beijing, China; with the participation of representatives of 20 countries. The ultimate goal of the workshop is to encourage the development of methodologies that include biophysical and socio-economics components of the quantities and drives of carbon fluxes and stocks at the national and regional level.

Further activities included several training workshops in co-operation with START (Global Change System for Analysis, Research and Training) and APN (Asia-Pacific Network on Global Change Research). Starting from June until December 2004, a whole series of seminars on a number of carbon issues will take place in Tsukuba. A major effort will also take place this year in developing a framework and submitting funding proposals to support the activity on “Vulnerabilities of the carbonclimate-human system”.

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Publications Canadell, JG, R. Dickson, M. Raupach, O. Young (eds.) 2003. The GCP Framework and Implementation - Science Plan, ESS-P Report Series No 1, Canberra. Field, CB, M. Raupach (eds.) 2004. The Global Carbon Cycle: Integrating Humans, Climate and the Natural World. Island Press, Washington. Field, C.B., M. Raupach (eds.) 2004. Towards CO2 Stabilization: Issues, Strategies, and Consequences. Island Press, Washington.

GCP Scientific Steering Committee Robert Dickinson Co-Chair Michael Raupach Co-Chair Oran Young Co-Chair

School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA CSIRO Earth Observation Center, Canberra, Australia

Michael Apps

Carbon and Climate Change, Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Pacific Forestry Center, Victoria, Canada (until 06/04), Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau, France Institute of Marine Geology and Chemistry, National Sun-Yat-sen University, Kaoshiung, China Taipei (since 06/04) Laboratorie des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Centre d'Etudes de Orme des Merisiers , Gif-sur-Yvette, France (until 06/04), Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research, Metoffice, Bracknell, UK (until 06/04), University of California, Irvine, CA, USA Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Stanford, USA Departamento de Política y Cultura, Universidad Autónoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico (until 06/04), Faculty of Social Science, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand (since 06/04) Max-Planck-Institut für Biochemie, Jena, Germany (since 06/04) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria S.J. Mehta School of Management, Indian Institute of Technology, Mumbai, India (until 06/04), Institute of Environmental Physics, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany Department of Oceanography, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA Department of Forest Environment and Resources, University of Tuscia, Viterbo, Italy Climate Change Research Project, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan

Alain Chedin Cheng-Tung A. Chen Philippe Ciais Peter Cox Ellen Druffel Christopher Field P. Romero Lankao Louis Lebel Corinne Le Quere Nebojsa Nakicenovic Anand Partwardhan Monika Rhein Christopher Sabine Riccardo Valentini Yoshiki Yamagata

Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, USA

GCP International Project Offices Pep Canadell, Executive Officer Earth Observation Centre CSIRO Land and Water G.P.O. Box 3023

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Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia T: +61 2 6246 5631 F: +61 2 6246 5560 pep.canadell@csiro.au Penelope Canan, Executive Officer Centre for Global Environmental Research National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) 12-2 Onogawa Tsukuba, 305-8506, Japan penelope.canan@nies.go.jp

http://www.globalcarbonproject.org

3.5.2 Global Environmental Change and Food Systems (GECaFS) The ESS-P joint project on Global Environmental Change and Food Systems (GECaFS) made great progress in 2003. Its research goal is to determine strategies to cope with the impacts of global environmental change on food systems and to assess the environmental and socio-economic consequences of adaptive responses aimed at improving food security. Research proposals were drafted for regional research projects in the Indo-Gangetic Plain and the Caribbean, and planning initiated for research in southern Africa.

Project Development One focus of GECaFS is to develop approaches and methods on how food systems can better understood:

Vulnerable Food Systems: Linking Theory to Methods An integrated assessment of vulnerability to multiple stresses needs to be designed with forethought, as planned in the Global Environmental Change and Food Systems (GECaFS) project. The political ecology of vulnerable food systems is an essential starting point to designing an assessment (Franklin 2004). One implementation of political ecology is Actor Network Theory (Callon 1999), which seeks to identify the various actors (human, ecological and physical), the boundaries of the system, and the nature of their interactions. This social theory coheres well with the concept of coupled socio-ecological systems and the analysis of resilience. This theoretical background lays the foundation for scoping the assessment of the food system. One approach is mental mapping (Morgan et al. 2002). Experts and stakeholders interact to identify the main actors and drivers of change: define the region: vulnerability is not limited to a specific geographic coordinates; rather processes operate on multiple scales. define the temporal scale: historical trends and trajectories are as important as the present status; social and economic vulnerability varies on diverse but often rapid time scales. document the processes that generate vulnerability: the risks arise from multiple stresses; the responses at different level may mitigate or exacerbate some vulnerabilities.

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define who is vulnerable: livelihood security is a meta-level concept, but both individuals and systems may be considered vulnerable. Relate social vulnerability to ecosystem resilience: The resilience of ecosystem services are important for different vulnerable groups.

Analysis of an actor network requires an inventory of the actors or stakeholders relevant to vulnerable food systems. Stakeholders include classes of vulnerable groups (e.g., marginal populations), local leaders, and decision makers in local and national organisations (government, NGOs, charities). They have specific interests in vulnerable food systems and adaptive capacities, to greater or lesser extent allied to their decision frameworks and processes. A starting point in the analysis should be an inventory of stakeholders, analysis of their organisational capacity (e.g., mission, legal structure, resources) and a mapping of stakeholder networks that form the basis of social institutions. The next step is to evaluate present vulnerability. Using vulnerable livelihoods as the â&#x20AC;&#x153;exposure unitâ&#x20AC;? has strong synergies with poverty reduction and development planning. A livelihood comprises the capabilities, assets (including both material and social resources) and activities required for a means of living. A livelihood is sustainable when it can cope with and recover from stresses and shocks and maintain or enhance its capabilities and assets both now and in the future, while not undermining the natural resource base. A livelihood-sensitivity matrix starts with the list of livelihoods in the region, such as farmers (smallholders and commercial), fisherfolk, pastoralists and urban poor. Working backwards adds to the list productive activities of these livelihoods, such as food cropping, cash cropping, small livestock and off-farm casual labour (for smallholder farmers). In turn, those activities depend on a range of sectoral services (such as local and national markets), public infrastructure (roads and ports) and ecosystem services (watershed groundwater recharge). Thus, the rows of the livelihood-sensitivity matrix are a hierarchy of the ecosystem, public and economic services that are essential in productive activities, which are elements of common livelihoods. The columns in the livelihood sensitivity matrix are the present climatic threats (or opportunities) and trends that are significant for the vulnerable livelihoods. It may be useful to add other stresses and shocks that exacerbate the effects of climatic hazards. For instance, HIV/AIDS, economic recession and civil strife would alter the range of

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coping strategies that different livelihoods might employ in order to cope with droughts or floods. These become important if they directly affect the adaptive capacity of livelihoods and the ability to implement proposed adaptation strategies. The matrix can be filled in with relative scores (say from 1 to 5) for the degree to which each hazards affects each service or livelihood. Indices of exposure to hazards and impacts of various threats can be calculated from even a simple matrix. The first task in evaluating adaptive options is to identify and characterise the range of options available. A checklist of attributes to evaluate might include: finance, information and skills required to implement time required to plan and implement option stakeholders who will implement the option beneficiaries of the option conflicts with other options or stakeholders Techniques to evaluate adaptation options range from qualitative checklists (as above) to full cost-benefit analysis. In most cases, some sort of multi-criteria analysis is essential. The evaluation of adaptation options should make explicit links between the vulnerability of specific livelihoods and criteria chosen for evaluating options. Integration of the results might begin with vulnerability profiles and the evaluation matrix for adaptation options. These should be shown for a variety of scenarios of socio-economic futures and climatic risks. More participatory approaches to integration would include risk assessment, role playing and policy exercises and rule-based, multi-agent models.

This work was supported through the Sida Poverty and Vulnerability Programme, UK Economic and Social Research Council, Global Environmental Change and Food Systems Programme, U.N. Environment Programme and U.N. Development Programme. Stuart Franklin and Tom Downing in the Stockholm Environment Institute, Oxford Office led the review of theory and methods. John Ingram in the GECaFS office coordinated the work and its integration into the GECaFS science plan. For further information, see the www.VulnerabilityNet.org and www.Livelihoods.org web sites. Tom Downing, Stuart Franklin (SEI)

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Key references are: Callon, M. 1999. Actor-Network Theory - The Market Test. Actor Network Theory and After. J. Law and J. Hassard (eds.). Oxford University Press, Oxford. Cannon, T. 2002. Food security, food systems and livelihoods: Competing explanations of hunger. Die Erde 133, 345-362. Downing, T.E. 2002. Linking sustainable livelihoods and global climate change in vulnerable food systems. Die Erde 133, 363-378. Franklin, S. 2004. Toward a narrative theory of climate change vulnerability. Annals of the Association of American Geographers (submitted). Morgan, M.G., Fischhoff, B., Bostrom, A. and C.J. Atman, 2002. Risk Communication: A Mental Models Approach. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Sen, A. 1981. Poverty and Famines: An essay on entitlement and deprivation. Oxford University Press, Oxford.

Activities of GECaFS in 2003/2004 A number of workshops were held in 2003, mainly to prepare this regional research but also on topics such as Decision Support Systems and Comprehensive Scenarios, which help to establish the context for regional research projects. Another cross-cutting project focuses on linking environmental and social aspects of vulnerability of food systems into a unified concept. Initial research activities have begun in the above mentioned regions in 2004 and further meetings have taken place, i.e. the Workshop on Global and Regional Scenarios at the FAO in Rome, May 2004, and the seminar at the Australian Academy of Sciences in 2003.

Publications An important activity in 2003/2004 is the series of methodological briefs on vulnerability (see also box above), in cooperation with the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI)/Oxford: Resilience and Vulnerability Vulnerability, Global Environmental Change and Food Systems Agent-Based Modelling of Vulnerability Vulnerability Indicators and Mapping Choosing Methods in Assessments of Vulnerable Food Systems Political Ecology of Vulnerability

GECaFS Scientific Advisory Committee Peter Gregory Chair Mike Brklacich Vice-Chair

School of Human and Environmental Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada

Dagoberto Arcos Angela Cropper Barbara Huddleston Saleemul Huq

Fishery Research Institute, Talcahuano, Chile Cropper Foundation, Port of Spain, Trinidad & Tobago UN-FAO, Rome, Italy International Institute of Environment and Development, London, UK

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John Ingram Jim Jones Linda Mearns Richard Mkandawire Mohammed Salih Mahendra Shah Luis Viera

Executive Officer, NERC-Center for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, UK University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD), Johannesburg, South Africa (until 12/03) Institute of Social Studies, The Hague, The Netherlands International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria Brazilian Agricultural Research Cooperation (EMBRAPA), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

The Executive Committee includes the GECaFS Chair, Vice-Chair and Executive Officer together with one representative from each of the IGBP Science Committee, the IHDP Science Committee and the WCRP Joint Scientific Committee.

GECaFS International Project Office John Ingram, Executive Officer National Environment Research Council (NERC) Center for Ecology and Hydrology Wallingford OX10 8BB, UK T: +44 1491 692410/692464 F: +44 1491 692313 info@gecafs.org

http://www.gecafs.org

3.5.3 Global Water System Project (GWSP) The youngest of the joint projects is the Global Water System Project (GWSP). It is sponsored by all four ESS-P programmes and takes an integrative look at the Global Water System. As people become more and more vulnerable to deficiencies in water supply and quality, water is increasingly considered a critical issue of the 21st century. The project aims at understanding impacts of global change on local and regional coupled water-human systems, and how local and regional anthropogenic activities in turn impact on global environmental change.

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ESS-P Joint Projects

Research

The global water system is being transformed by major syndromes including climate change, erosion, pollution and salinization. Major human-induced perturbations to the global water system include, i.e., an accelerated hydrological cycle, lost mountain snow/ice, increased runoff and landscape salinity as well as lowered water tables through trees removal or dried up wetlands.

Goals: The Global Water System Project seeks to answer the fundamental and multifaceted question: How are humans changing the global water cycle, the associated biogeochemical cycles, and the biological components of the global water system and what are the social feedbacks arising from these changes? Three major research themes follow this overarching question: (1) What are the magnitudes of anthropogenic and environmental changes in the global water system and what are the key mechanisms by which they are induced? (2) What are the main linkages and feedbacks within the Earth system arising from changes in the global water system? (3) How resilient and adaptable is the global water system to change, and what are sustainable water management strategies?

Project Development The latest draft of the Scientific Framework has been approved in principle and will be officially launched by the end of the year 2004. Several meetings were organized in 2003 by the four global change programmes in order to foster the development of the Science Plan of the joint ESS-P project on Water: 01/03

Regional Workshop of the Global Water System Project, Washington D.C., USA

03/03

GWSP Regional Meeting, Kyoto, Japan

05/03

GWSP Regional Meeting Europe/Africa, Delft, The Netherlands

10/03

Open Science Conference on Water Portsmouth, NH, USA

Further meetings of relevance for the development of GWSP: 02/04

Conference on Water of the Bonn International Centre for Conversion (BICC), Bonn, Germany

03/04

Meeting of social scientists from GLOWA water projects and IHDP in the Centre for Development Research (ZEF), Bonn, Germany

07/04

International Water Cycle Workshop, Seattle, WA, USA

08/04

World Water Week, Stockholm, Sweden

Structural Development An International Project Office for the management and coordination of the GWSP was set up in February 2004 at the University of Bonn in Bonn, Germany, with Eric Craswell serving as the Executive Officer.

Annual Report 2003/2004

Research

Endorsed Networks

GWSP Executive Scientific Steering Committee Joseph Alcamo Co-Chair Charles Vörösmarty Co-Chair

Center for Environmental Systems Research University of Kassel, Kassel, Germany Oceans and Space Complex Systems Research Center, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH, USA

Dennis Lettenmaier

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA College of Ocean and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA Institute for Environmental Systems Research, University of Osnabrück, Osnabrück, Germany

Robert J. Naiman Claudia Pahl-Wostl

GWSP International Project Office Eric Craswell, Executive Officer Walter-Flex-Str. 3 D-53113 Bonn, Germany T: +49 228 73 6187 F: +49 228 73 60834 eric.craswell@uni-bonn.de

http://www.gwsp.org

3.5.4 Planned Joint Project on Human Health and Global Environmental Change A fourth joint project on Human Health and Global Environmental Change is in the development phase. With cultural and socio-economic contexts of health systems permeating the research objectives, the planning team has started to work on the foci of this project. The discussion currently centers on the health related consequences of changes in the atmospheric composition, changes in hydrological cycle, changes in food and fibre producing ecosystems, urbanization, as well as biodiversity changes. Understanding the human health dimension of GEC highlights the immediacy of the biological impacts of changes in Earth Systems, and can help motivate human responses to global change that include mitigation and adaptation measures and policies to address underlying forces and the impacts of GEC. The Human Health Project Scoping Team had its first meeting in February 2003 and has since worked on the Draft Science Plan. The team is involved in constructive co-operation with WHO. The IHDP newsletter UPDATE No 3 in 2003 focused on Human Health and Global Environmental Change. Chairs of the Human Health Planning Team are Anthony McMichael (National Centre of Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia) and Ulisses Confalonieri (National School of Public Health, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil).

Annual Report 2003/2004

Endorsed Networks

3.6

Research

IHDP Endorsed Research Networks

3.6.1 Population-Environment Research Network (PERN) The Population-Environment Research Network (PERN), co-sponsored by IHDP and the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, is an academic network that seeks to advance research on population and the environment by promoting online scientific exchange among researchers from social and natural science disciplines worldwide. During the period January 2003 to June 2004 PERN's membership experienced a 42 percent growth from 600 to 850 members (approximately 50% of whom are from developing countries), and its eLibrary holdings grew from just over 1,000 to 1,700 records. PERN held three online cyberseminars during this period: on deforestation in April 2003, on air pollution and human health in December 2003, and on population, consumption and the environment in May/June 2004. During this period PERN also significantly expanded and updated its website and posted 15 â&#x20AC;&#x153;What's Newâ&#x20AC;? bulletins to its membership.The IHDP newsletter UPDATE No 1 in 2004 focuses on Population and Global Environmental Change. Alex de Sherbinin, Co-ordinator Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA pernadmin@populationenvironmentresearch.org

http://www.populationenvironmentresearch.org

3.6.2 Mountain Research Initiative (MRI) The Mountain Research Initiative (MRI) is a joint endeavour of IHDP, the Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS), four Core Projects of the IGBP, and the UNESCO Man and the Biosphere Programme (MAB). Various Swiss scientific organizations support the initiative and the coordination office. Highlights of MRI's activities during 2003 include the launch of the Global Change in Mountain Regions (GLOCHAMORE) project and the development of an overview publication on the same topic. GLOCHAMORE is funded by the EU's 6th Framework Programme to create a strategy for global change research in UNESCO's Mountain Biosphere Reserves. MRI provides scientific program management to a consortium of European and Asian mountain researchers based at the University of Vienna, Austria. This consortium will organize five workshops and an Open Science Conference in 2004 and 2005 to bring together managers and research scientists from throughout the world to develop this strategy. The first GLOCHAMORE workshop occurred in November 2003 in Entlebuch, Switzerland. MRI staff oversaw the development of an overview of research on global change in mountains. The 650-page compilation of 60 contributions from renown scientists offers an interdisciplinary overview of the state of knowledge in the fields of paleo-environmental change, cryospheric change, changes in the hydrological

Annual Report 2003/2004

Capacity Building

IHDP Workshops

cycle, ecological changes and associated human dimensions in mountain regions worldwide. Springer Verlag will publish the work as Global Change in Mountain Regions: A State of Knowledge Overview in fall 2004 as part of its Advances in Global Change Research Series. P.S. Ramakrishnan (Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India) serves as IHDP representative on the Science Advisory Board of the MRI.

MRI Coordination Office Greg Greenwood, Executive Director Swiss National Academy of Sciences BĂ¤renplatz 2, 3001 Bern Switzerland T: +41 31 328 23 30/31 F: +41 31 328 23 20 greenwood@sanw.unibe.ch

http://mri.sanwnet.ch

Capacity Building One of IHDP's goals is to create opportunities for young researchers in the field of the human dimensions of global environmental change, and offer on a regular basis theoretical and methodological training. In its capacity building efforts IHDP collaborates closely with START (System for Analysis, Research and Training) as well as with intergovernmental organizations, such as the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN) and the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI). Furthermore, IHDP is increasingly cooperating with organizations that are not only focusing on global environmental change but also on development issues. (e.g. IFS, TWAS, IFPRI). Together with all these partners, IHDP is planning whole series of capacity building workshops. The goal is to organize follow up activities on initial capacity building investments and link young researchers in a more effective way to the IHDP core research projects. IHDP, together with APN, IAI, START, and others, is identifying common thematic foci and urgent demands for training.

4.1

International Human Dimensions Workshops One main capacity building activity of IHDP is the International Human Dimensions Workshop (IHDW). Taking place every two years, the IHDW create a forum for young scientists, from developing countries as well as from countries in transition, to present and discuss their work and receive training in selected issues of IHDP research. The IHDP Secretariat makes an important effect to organize the IHDW and assure its financial basis. This yearâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s workshop is organized jointly with the Inter American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI). The IAI-IHDP 2004 Global Environmental Change Institute on Globalization and Food Systems - Scientific Workshop and SciencePolicy Forum will take place in Nicoya, Costa Rica, from October 24 to November 6, 2004, under the scientific leadership of Karen O'Brien (Norway), Eduardo Viola (Brazil) and Robin Leichenco (USA). It is hosted by the Centro Mesoamericano

Annual Report 2003/2004

IHDP Workshops

Capacity Building

para el Desarrollo Sostenible del Trópico Seco, University of Costa Rica, in Nicoya, Costa Rica, whose Director is Alexander López. The workshop is co-sponsored by APN, CEMEDE, FAO, IFPRI, IFS, IIASA, ISSC/UNESCO, Norwegian Research Council, START, and TWAS.

New Features Starting with the 2004 IHDW, four novelties have been introduced in order to increase the effectiveness of IHDP capacity building investments and enhance their overall impact: (1) The core research projects should define the theme of the IHDW, theirs main foci and design its overall structure. Core projects' SSC members should take an active role in the organization and implementation of the workshop, including teaching, coaching and follow-up activities. The main goal is to strengthen the links between the core projects' research development and the IHDP capacity building efforts, in order to connect the workshop's participants in an efficient way to the core projects. The core projects should use the capacity building workshop as an instrument to build up research networks on cross-cutting topics or themes of future interest. A Scientific Advisory Committee for the IHDW 2004 with representatives from the four core projects and the IHDP SC was set up. The topic of “Food systems, globalization and global environmental change” was identified as a crosscutting topic of relevance to the four IHDP core research projects. Members of the GECHS SSC volunteered as scientific leader and local host of the IHDW respectively, and members of the SSCs of the four core projects are instructors of the IHDW 2004. (2) In order to embed the IHDW in a more effective way in the regions and facilitate follow-up networking, IHDP decided to organize the IHDW 2004 jointly with a regional capacity building organization together with a university or research institution in the region. For the 2004 IHDW, IAI and the University of Costa Rica were chosen in order to strengthen networks in Latin America; for the IHDW 2006, negotiations with APN and a research institution in Asia are already underway. (3) Follow-up activities should be included right from the beginning in the planning process of the IHDW. One follow-up activity of the IHDW 2004 will be a training seminar back to back with the 6th Open Meeting of the Human Dimensions of the Global Environmental Change Research Community, October 2005 in Bonn, Germany. (4) IHDW participants should be exposed to decision-makers in order to strengthen the science-policy interface. This is why the IHDW 2004 consists of two parts: the Scientific Workshop and the Science Policy Forum.

IHDW 2004 Scientific Workshop The Scientific Workshop aims to encourage the systematic promotion of young scientists, particularly social scientists, from developing countries and countries in transition. In addition, it seeks to develop partnerships among governments, industries and communities; connect local and regional profession-

Annual Report 2003/2004

Capacity Building

Other Capacity Building

als and institutions worldwide with related initiatives and networks; and inform local and regional professionals of the funding opportunities available to support projects dealing with global environmental change and food systems. In order to facilitate the future integration of the workshop's participants into the IHDP and IAI research communities, the four IHDP core projects have been actively involved from the very beginning in designing the workshop and promoting research on the workshop's themes.

IHDW 2004 Science-Policy Forum An important novelty at the end of the workshop is the Science-Policy Forum, which will focus on the science-policy interface and the use of scientific information in policy and decision-making processes. This forum will examine the availability of scientific information and mechanisms required to better translate scientific information for the non-scientific community, the uses of information, and which policy issues should be incorporated into the scientific community's workshop. The forum will be held during the final 1-2 days of the Institute. Governmental agencies, national and international organizations, NGO's, and private companies will be invited to attend this forum to learn about the results of the scientific workshop, contribute to the further training of participants, and discuss the scientific and political aspects of global change and food systems with workshop IHDW 2004 participants from different countries or regions.

4.2

Other IHDP Sponsored Capacity Building Events In addition to the International Human Dimensions Workshops, IHDP is strongly involved in a series of capacity building activities of partner organizations. In 2003/2004, IHDP researchers and members of governing bodies (SC and SSC members as well as the Executive Director) actively participated in a series of workshops, partially financed by IHDP: 12/03

Young Scientists' Global Change Conference (organized by START and TWAS and co-sponsored by IHDP) in Trieste, Italy

03/04

IAI-IHDP organized workshop “Can cities reduce global warming? Urban development and the carbon cycle” in Mexico City, Mexico

05/04

START Training Institute on Vulnerability in Laxenburg, Austria

06/04

APN Capacity Building Workshop on Global Change in Islamabad, Pakistan

08/04

2nd AIACC (Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change) Regional Workshop for Latin America and the Caribbean, Buenos Aires, Argentina

09/04

Regional Workshop on the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change in Richards Bay, South Africa

10/04

IAI-IHDP Institute on “Urbanization and Global Environmental Change” in Latin America, in Mexico City, Mexico

11/04

Southern Pacific University Network (RUPSUR) meeting on “Biophysical and Socioeconomic Impacts of ENSO on Marine and Terrestrial Ecosystems”, Santiago de Chile, Chile

In addition, IHDP's four core research projects are developing their own capacity building activities, all of which are co-sponsored or co-organized by IHDP. Another important device for capacity building is IHDP's Seed Grant Initiative and the meetings resulting from this initiative (compare 6.2 and 6.3).

Annual Report 2003/2004

Open Meetings

Science Networks

Training seminars in tandem with the 6th Open Meeting of the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Research Community, October 2005, Bonn, Germany will support participants from developing countries to attend both the seminars and the Open Meeting (see 5.1).

4.3

The Young Human Dimensions Researchers Initiative (YHDR) The Young Human Dimensions Researchers Initiative (YHDR) is another network endorsed by IHDP. This open, international group of young social scientists coorganized a panel at the 5th Open Meeting of the Human Dimensions on Global Environmental Change Research Community, October 2003 in Montreal, Canada, and had their first national conference in Hamburg, Germany, in June 2003. A YHDR representative, Jasper Grosskurth, is participating in the Planning Committee for the 6th Open Meeting of the Human Dimensions on Global Environmental Change Research Community, October 2005 in Bonn, Germany. The YHDR will use the 6th Open Meeting as a platform to enhance their visibility and expand their networks. Jasper Grosskurth, YHDR Coordinator

Ja.Grosskurth@icis.unimaas.nl

Scientific Meetings and Networking

5.1

Open Meetings of the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Research Community The 5th Open Meeting 2003 The 5th Open Meeting of the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Research Community took place in Montreal, Canada, from 16-18 October 2003. The meeting was co-sponsored by IHDP, the Center for International Earth Science Information Network at Columbia University (CIESIN) and the Inter American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI). Local host was the McGill School of Environment. The 5th Open Meeting brought together around 370 international experts on global change from a broad range of disciplines. Special efforts had been made to sponsor the participation of young researchers and researchers from developing countries as well as from Eastern and Central European countries. The three-day meeting consisted of several plenary talks, 56 panel sessions and diverse poster sessions. A broad range of thematic foci were addressed: transitions towards sustainable development (such as industrial transformation), human security with regard to global environmental change, institutional dimensions of global environmental change, vulnerability and resilience, land-use and land-cover change, human health, biodiversity, and urbanization, to name a few. IHDP's newsletter, UPDATE, features an overview of the Conference in its 4th issue of 2004, The Open Meeting Special. A series of IHDP side events was organized back to back with the 5th Open Meeting in Montreal, Canada. For example, a meeting of the Young Human Dimensions Research Network and of the IHDP National Committees and National Contact Points took place. Also, the Scientific Steering Committees of the IHDP

Annual Report 2003/2004

Science Networks

Open Meetings

core projects GECHS, IDGEC and IT organized their annual meetings shortly before or after the Open Meeting. http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/openmeeting

The 6th Open Meeting 2005 In 2004 and 2005, one important activity of the IHDP Secretariat, the core research projects and the Scientific Committee is the organization of the 6th Open Meeting of the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Research Community, from 9 - 13 October 2005 at the University of Bonn in Bonn, Germany. IHDP is taking the lead in organizing this event. Other co-organizers include CIESIN, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), the United Nations University (UNU), and the University of Bonn (also acting as local host). One outcome of the discussion at the last Open Meeting in Montreal 2003 was the consensus that the next Open Meeting in 2005 should strengthen the following three complementary components: (1) Stronger focus on key research themes derived from the four core projects of IHDP with strong participation of leaders in the field, (2) focus on the identification of gaps and emerging future areas of research by exploratory sessions (“playground to address puzzles”), and (3) promotion of the integration of young researchers in collective research projects in order to strengthen the human dimensions research network. The IHDP research community considers the 6th Open Meeting an ideal platform for its stock taking and mid-term synthesis process, as well as for the consolidation of the programme and the strengthening of its links to other social science communities. The title of the 6th Open Meeting, “Global Environmental Change, Globalization and International Security: New Challenges for the 21st Century”, reflects an effort to link human dimensions research into contemporary policy debates on future actions of the global community. The 6th Open Meeting is set up to promote a better understanding of global transformations, identify the resulting opportunities and challenges and develop appropriate responses. This entails a critical assessment of what the community has achieved to date as well as the development of a forward-looking action plan. At its first meeting in May 2004, the International Scientific Planning Committee decided upon the structure, time line and focus of the 6th Open Meeting. The following goals strongly emerged from this meeting: (1) Structure the Open Meeting around IHDP's established core projects (GECHS, IDGEC, IT, LUCC), new core projects (LOICZ) and emerging core projects (Urbanization and Global Land Project). This would overcome the fragmentation of past Open Meetings. (2) Link up with social science communities in order to capture and include current issues, including emerging theoretical and methodological developments, within mainstream social sciences (including humanities and economics). This should be done via a “wake-up call” in plenaries and specific sessions. (3) Link the human dimensions research community in a more realistic and targeted way with policy makers, specifically tapping into fields related to free-market economics, international policy, and globalization in general.

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Open Meetings

Science Networks

(4) Attract excellent plenary speakers, focus on sound science, make the achievements of human dimensions research more visible, and be relevant to policy-makers. (5) Support capacity-building efforts for young researchers, particularly from developing countries, and integrate them in an effective way into the Open Meeting. (6) Look at the Open Meeting as being a component of a larger process to strengthen the human dimensions perspective on global change. This implies considering preparatory (e.g. IHDP's series of mid-term review workshops), back-to-back (e.g. training seminars) and follow-up activities. This would also enable IHDP to keep track of the impacts of scholarships awarded. The structure of the 6th Open Meeting will consist of thought-provoking plenaries, panel sessions and poster sessions, and it will include a half day at the end for National Committees as well as a half day for the Young Human Dimensions Researchers (YHDR) Network beforehand. SSC Meetings of IHDP core projects (such as IT and LUCC) will take place back-to-back with the Open Meeting. In addition, three days of Training Seminars will precede the Open Meeting. These pre-Open Meeting training seminars will take place from 5-8 October nearby Bonn. Current working titles for these training workshops are: (1) “Linking Urban Areas to the Carbon Cycle”, (2) “Understanding Vulnerability and Resilience”, (3) “Making Sense of Spatial Data”, and (4) “The Economics of Global Environmental Change”. Selected young researchers from developing countries will be supported to attend these training seminars and then remain in Bonn throughout the week for the Open Meeting itself.

The 6th Open Meeting International Scientific Planning Committee (ISPC) Barbara Göbel Co-Chair Eduardo Viola Co-Chair

Secretariat, International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP), Bonn, Germany University of Brasilia, Brasilia, Brazil

Roland Fuchs Jasper Grosskurth

Global Change System for Analysis, Research and Training (START) International Center for Integrative Studies, Maastricht, the Netherlands, and representative of the Young Human Dimensions Researchers Network (YHDR) Gernot Klepper The Kiel Institute for World Economics (IFW), Kiel, Germany, and CoChair of the German National Committee on Global Change Research Eric Lambin Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium, and Chair of the LUCC SSC Louis Lebel Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand Ben Malayang Philippine Sustainable Development Network, Los Baños, The Philippines Andrew Matthews National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealand, and representative of the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN) Karen O'Brien Center for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO), Oslo, Norway and SSC member of GECHS Marcella Ohira Schwarz Inter American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI) Alexander de Sherbinin Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA

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Science Networks

National Committees and Seed Grants

Leena Srivastava Coleen Vogel Oran Young Tomasz Zylicz

The Energy Research Institute (TERI), New Delhi, India and SSC member of IT University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa and Chair of IHDP Scientific Committee University of California, Santa Barbara, USA and Chair of the IDGEC SSC Warsaw University, Varsovia, Poland

For further details on the 6th Open Meeting, contact Lis Mullin, Open Meeting Coordinator, IHDP Secretariat, mullin.ihdp@uni-bonn.de. For general information, contact openmeeting.ihdp@uni-bonn.de or visit the IHDP website at www.ihdp.org.

5.2

Other IHDP (Co)-Sponsored Meetings 2003-2004 IHDP (co-)sponsored and took part in several conferences and workshops. The following list is only a selection: 06/03

Workshop on Strategies for Sustainable Development, Barcelona, Spain

06/03

3rd IGBP Congress on Connectivities in the Earth System, Banff, Canada

11/03

ISSC/IHDP Workshop on Social Science Perspectives on Sustainable Development, Cuernavaca, Mexico (co-sponsored by IHDP)

12/03

Energy and Sustainable Science Conference (organized by the Science Council of Japan and co-sponsored by IHDP), Tokyo, Japan. IHDP Executive Director Barbara Göbel gave a lecture on “Industrial Transformation Research and Sustainable Energy Use”.

12/03

START Young Scientists' Conference on Global Change (co-sponsored by IHDP) Trieste, Italy. Barbara Göbel chaired a session and was member of the jury for the “Paul Crutzen Price”.

01/04

Meeting of the ad-hoc Advisory Group of ICSU, TWAS, and ISTS to the Consortium on Science and Technology for Sustainable Development, Paris, France. Barbara Göbel outlined the structure and future challenges of the Earth System Science Partnership. She discussed the challenges of integration within and between the natural and social sciences, and between scientists and stakeholders.

Linking International With Regional and National Research Agendas

6.1

National Committees for Human Dimensions Research The global network of social and natural scientists represented in its National Committees and National Contact Points is one of IHDP's leading strengths and driving forces of research activities. In order to support research in our field, IHDP places high priority on balancing representation of all regions of the world. To date 67 nations are actively linked to our research community. IHDP has 28 National Committees (14 of which are Global Change Committees with representation from two or more global environmental change programmes) and 39 National Contact Points. Out of the 67 countries, more than half are located in developing countries and transition economies.

Annual Report 2003/2004

National Committees and Seed Grants

Science Networks

List of IHDP National Committees* and National Contact Points Argentina

Costa Rica

Hungary

Nigeria*

Austria*(GCC)

Cote d'Ivoire*

India

Norway*(GCC)

Sweden Switzerland*

Bangladesh

Czech Republic

Indonesia*

Pakistan

China Taipei* Tanzania

Belarus

Ecuador

Italy

Philippines*(GCC)

Bolivia*

Egypt

Japan*

Poland

Thailand*(GCC)

Botswana*(GCC)

Ethiopia

Kenya*

Portugal*(GCC)

Turkey

Brazil*

Fiji

Laos

Romania*(GCC)

Uganda

Bulgaria

Finland*(GCC)

Latvia

Russia

Ukraine

Burkina Faso

France*(GCC)

Malaysia

Senegal

United Kingdom

Cameroon

Georgia

Mauritius*

Slovak Republic

USA* Vietnam*(GCC)

Canada

Germany*(GCC)

Mexico*

Somalia

Chile

Ghana

Nepal*

South Africa*(GCC)

China*

Greece

Netherlands*(GCC) Spain*

Congo, DR*(GCC) Guatemala

New Zealand

Sudan

In October 2003, representatives from all major regions came together at the 5th Open Meeting of the Human Dimensions on Global Environmental Change Research Community in Montreal, Canada for a formal meeting of national committee representatives. Productive discussions were held not only on national and regional human dimension research activities, but particularly on areas of regional collaboration in which National Committees could work together on common themes. Representatives from key regional (APN, IAI, START) and research (PERN, YHDR) networks played an active role in promoting an integrative approach to international collaboration in human dimensions research. The 6th Open Meeting of the Global Environmental Change Research Community, will be held at the University of Bonn, Germany from 9-13 October 2005. IHDP National Committees will take an active role in this meeting and be embedded in the plenary and parallel sessions. A formal meeting of National Committee representatives is planned. National Committees and National Contact Points are an invaluable resource to IHDP. Not only do they bring together leading scientists to work on human dimensions-related issues in their countries or regions, they play a leading role in naming participants to IHDP core and joint science projects as well as influence the identification of research themes for the programme as a whole. A Directory of IHDP National Committees and National Contact Points is planned for publication in fall of 2004 and will be made available on the IHDP website. A Directory of Funding Opportunities and Calls for Proposals with a focus on globalization and food systems is currently being developed by an intern and will be published in fall 2004 as well.

6.2

Seed Grant Initiative IHDP's commitment to promote the development and strengthening of National Human Dimensions Committees and Programmes in developing countries and transition economies continues to be matched by considerable interest and activity in a growing number of countries. Beginning in late 1998, IHDP allocated resources from the International Social Science Council (ISSC) and the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) to run a Seed Grant Initiative to provide small â&#x20AC;&#x153;seedâ&#x20AC;? grants, usually in the amount $2,000, towards the development of national inventories of human dimensions research activities in selected countries

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Science Networks

Regional and National Meetings

or to organize and run national or regional workshops for human dimensions researchers to facilitate the creation of new IHDP research networks. Nations participating have all continued to play an active role in the IHDP Programme, serving as National Contact Points for research activities in respective countries or in establishing National Committees to promote IHDP research. To date, twenty-six nations have been awarded seed grants through this Initiative: Argentina Bangladesh Belarus Bolivia Brazil Bulgaria

Cameroon Chile Cote d'Ivoire Fiji Georgia India

Kenya Laos Mauritius Mexico Nepal Nigeria

Philippines Romania Russia Senegal South Africa Tanzania

Vietnam Yemen

Reports of these activities are a valuable resource to the IHDP Secretariat and the human dimensions research community. In 2003-2004, six reports were completed as part of the Seed Grant Initiative. Directories of Institutions and Research related to the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change were developed for Argentina, Belarus, Chile, Georgia and Tanzania. Funds were also awarded for an IHDP/RUDECT (Rural Development and Environment Conservation Trust) Stakeholder Meeting on human dimensions of global environmental change research in Tanzania. IHDP continues to publish edited volumes of these reports available on the IHDP website. The 2003/2004 volume of the Directory of Institutions and Research Related to the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change: IHDP Seed Grant Initiative Final Reports will be published in the fall of 2004 and will include the above-mentioned reports, as well as reports ongoing from Bangladesh, Brazil, Laos, Russia and South Africa. All reports can be accessed on the IHDP website under “Seed Grant Initiative”.

6.3

(Co-)Sponsoring of and Participation in Regional and National Meetings The linkage of national and regional research activities on global change with the international global change programmes is gaining more and more importance. Several national and regional meetings in the Americas, Asia, Africa and Europe took place in 2003 and 2004 in order to connect the international research agendas to national and regional research agendas.

02/03

South Asia Regional Conference on “Transitions towards sustainable development”, New Delhi, India (START/IHDP-IT, co-sponsored by IHDP)

05/03

European Science Foundation Preparatory Meeting: “Looking Forward on Earth System Science”, The Hague, The Netherlands*

07/03

Meeting of the German National Committee on Global Change Research (NKGCF), Berlin, Germany*

10/03

Meeting of the US Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change, Montreal, Canada*

10/03

IGBP/IHDP South African Global Change Committee South African Conference on “Global Change and Regional Sustainability”, Cape Town, South Africa*

12/03

Meeting on the Human Dimensions of Global Change Research “Changements Globeaux: Vulnérabilité, Adaptabilité, Apprentissage” organized by the French Ministry for Research and New Technologies, with representation of and lectures by members of the IHDP secretariat and all four IHDP core projects, Paris, France*

Annual Report 2003/2004

Regional and National Meetings

12/03

International Conference on Science and Technology for Sustainability “Energy and Sustainability Science” organized by the Japan Science Council, Tokyo, Japan (co-sponsored by IHDP)*

01/04

Meeting of the Principals of the US Climate Change Programme with ESS-P-leadership; Meeting of NSF Units related to global change research with ESS-P leadership; Meeting of U.S. National Academy of Sciences. Global Change Co-ordination Committee with ESS-P leadership. Washington, USA.*

02/04

“Sociétés et Environnement”, organized by the Institut National des Sciences de l'Univers (INSU) with sponsorship of CNRS, and the French Ministry for Research and New Technologies, Paris, France.*

04/04

5th Swiss Global Change Day, organized by ProClim, Forum for Climate and Global Change of the Swiss Academy of Sciences and the IGBP and IHDP Swiss National Committee, Berne, Switzerland*

04/04

Joint Seminar “Global Change and Sustainability” held in Évora, Portugal and hosted by the IGBP/IHDP Portuguese Global Change Committee and the IGBP Spanish National Committee*

05/04

Global Change Unit of the European Commission Symposium on “EC Global Change Research: International Partnership” in Brussels, Belgium*

06/04

Joint International Symposium on “Developing Human-Environment Symbiotic Cities” organized by Nagoya Sangyo University and Japan Association on Human and Environment Symbiosis, Nagoya, Japan*

06/04

Experts Workshop and Open Forum: “Citizens' Participation and Partnerships for Risk Communication in Environmental Activities”, Chiba, Japan*

08/04

“2nd Assessment of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change” (AIACC) Regional Workshop for Latin America and the Caribbean, Buenos Aires, Argentina*

09/04

Southern African Regional Workshop on Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Research, organized by the IHDP South African National Contact Point, Richards Bay, South Africa (co-sponsored by IHDP and the South African National Research Council)*

10/04

Regional Workshop on Global Environmental Change: “A New Scientific Agenda in the Brazilian Context”, Brazilian National Committee on Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change, Campinas Region, Brazil (co-sponsored by IHDP)

11/04

Norwegian Workshop on Global Change, Research Council of Norway, Oslo, Norway*

11/04

Regional Workshop on Global Environmental Change in Russia, Russian IHDP National Contact Point, Moscow, Russia (co-sponsored by IHDP)

11/04

3rd National Colloquium on Global Change Research, German National Committee on Global Change Research (NKGCF), Berlin, Germany*

11/04

Southern Pacific Universities Network (RUPSUR) Meeting “Biophysical and Socioeconomic Impacts of ENSO on Marine and Terrestrial Ecosystems” in Santiago de Chile (co-sponsored by IHDP)

12/04

“Asian Megacities and Global Sustainability”, organized by the Japan Science Council in Tokyo, Japan (co-sponsored by IHDP)*

Science Networks

* Presentations by IHDP Executive Director and/or Chair of IHDP SC In the development of all of these national and regional activities, the National Committees have had and will continue to have an increasingly important role to play.

Annual Report 2003/2004

Science-Policy Interface; Information and Communication

Science-Policy Making Interface As indicated at the outset of this report the coupled human-environment earth system is becoming a key item on several national and international policymaking agendas. Scientific results of IHDP research activities have contributed and will continue to contribute to environmental assessment processes such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) or the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA). IHDP scientists are strongly involved in both processes. IHDP work has been invaluable for providing scientific information to several policy forums and think-tanks. LUCC researchers, for example, developed four global scenarios and as many as 30 sub global assessments for the MA (see textbox in 3.1.4). IHDP was also represented at the Alexandria, Egypt, meeting “Bridging Scales and Epistomologies: Linking local knowledge and global science in multiscale assessments” of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment in March 2004 (see UPDATE No. 2/2004). By means of processes such as the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) and other activities, IHDP and several scientists linked to IHDP are co-operating closely with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Secretariat and the IPCC. IHDP researchers are, for example, authors and experts reviewers of the Third Assessment Report of IPCC and are engaged in working groups of the Fourth Assessment Report. They have been asked to chair or co-chair several of the forthcoming chapters of the next IPCC assessement. During the 16th session of the Subsidary Body Meeting in Bonn, Germany, in June 2004, a side-event on “Research in response to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change” was organized. It was chaired by Pier Vellinga, who has been Chair of the IT project for the past four years; IHDP's Executive Director Barbara Göbel gave a presentation on IHDP. In the discussion the role of human dimensions research for the whole IPCC process was emphasized. In addition, IHDP plans to establish closer links with the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) Secretariat and the Convention on Biodiversity (CBD). There are many other examples from IHDP's core projects of how IHDP activities contribute to a dialogue between the research and the policy-making community. IT researchers and the IT International Project Office closely cooperate with policy makers on a national and regional level (see 3.1.2). Another recent example is the Science Policy Forum at the upcoming International Human Dimensions Workshop in Costa Rica (see 4.1).

Mainstreaming the Message: Information, Com-munication and Outreach The IHDP newsletter, UPDATE, is an important instrument to enhance the programme's visibility and diffuse its research activities. Currently, more than 4,000 hard copies are being sent out to members of the human dimensions of global environmental change research community worldwide. The number of copies for print had to be increased to 6,000. The newsletter is also available on the IHDP website.

Annual Report 2003/2004

IHDP Scientific Committee

Structure

All issues of UPDATE have a specific thematic focus. An issue per year is devoted to each of the core projects. In 2003 the four issues of the newsletter had the following thematic foci: (1) Industrial Transformation, (2) Resilience, (3) Global Environmental Change and Human Health, and (4) a special edition on the 5th Open Meeting on the Human Dimensions on Global Environmental Change. In 2004 the following UPDATE issues have been published or are in preparation: (1) Population and Global Environmental Change, (2) Law and Global Environmental Change; (3) Conflict, Cooperation and Global Environmental Change, and (4) Environmental Psychology and Global Environmental Change. The first UPDATE issue of 2005 will feature results of the Costa Rica IHDW Workshop on Globalization and Food Systems. Much time was devoted in 2003 to improve the IHDP website and database (researchers and organizations). In the first half of 2004, a new web design was developed in cooperation with the information officers of the ESS-P partner programmes. The new homepage will feature the ESS-P in a visually more coherent way. Not only the design but also the navigation and contents of the upgraded IHDP website were significantly improved. The new website is expected to be launched in fall 2004. In suite, the linking of the website with the IHDP database for subscription of the electronic UPDATE newsletter will follow. An IHDP CD has been prepared and widely distributed since late 2003. The CD contains the most relevant information on the programme and its activities (e.g. newsletters, annual reports, core and joint projects' science plans, implementation plans and newsletters, inventories of National Committees, information on ESS-P) and is updated on a regular base. Further major activities - that are all part of the intensified IHDP information strategy - include: (1) The development of a common look for all IHDP products, (2) the development of a database on IHDP publications, to be made available on the websites of the Secretariat and the core projects, (3) the Annual Report 2003/2004, (4) Publication of Inventory of IHDP National Committees, (5) new brochures and new posters for IHDP and the core projects, (6) brochures and posters for the 6th Open Meeting 2005 in Bonn, and (7) wider communication activities such as articles, informing student groups on Global Change, or intensifying contacts to other Global Change organizations with envisioned translations of IHDP basic information materials into other languages, i.e. Chinese and Spanish. In 2004/2005, IHDP will work more intensively on peer-reviewed science publications. These will be based on the Scientific Committee's and the Core Project's scientific guidance. The communication and outreach efforts of the IHDP Secretariat will be further developed.

Organizational Structure

9.1

IHDP Scientific Committee Coleen Vogel Chair Roberto SĂĄnchez-RodrĂguez, Mohammed Salih

Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa UC MEXUS, University of California, Riverside, CA, USA Vice-Chair (Vice-Chair, until 12/03) Institute of Social Sciences, The Hague, The Netherlands

Annual Report 2003/2004

Structure

IHDP Scientific Committee

William Clark

(until 12/03), Kennedy School of Government Faculty, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA Geoffrey Dabelko (since 06/04), Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Washington D.C., USA Carl Folke Center for Research on Natural Resources and the Environment, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden Gilberto Carlos Gallopín UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Santiago, Chile Carlo C. Jaeger Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany T. Kluvánková-Oravská Slovak Academy of Sciences, Bratislava, Slovak Republic Sander van der Leeuw (since 06/04), Department of Anthropology, Arizona State University, Phoenix, AZ, USA Elinor Ostrom Center for the Study of Institutions, Population and Environmental Change, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, USA Xizhe Peng Institute of Population Research, Fudan University, Shanghai, China P.S. Ramakrishnan (until 12/03), Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India Hebe Vessuri (since 06/04), Department of Science Studies (Instituto Venezolano de Investigaciones Cientificas), Caracas, Venzuela Paul L. G. Vlek Center for Development Research (ZEF), Treasure University of Bonn, Germany

Ex-Officio Members Lourdes Arizpe (ISSC) Guy Pierre Brasseur (IGBP) Michael Brklacich (GECHS) Sulochana Gadgil (START) Eric Lambin (LUCC) Peter Lemke (WCRP) Michel Loreau (DIVERSITAS) Gordon McBean (ICSU) Liana Talaue McManus (LOICZ) João M. F. Morais (IGBP) Graeme I. Pearman (START) Pier Vellinga (IT) Oran Young (IDGEC)

9.2

Universidad Autonóma de México, Cuernavaca/Mexico City, Mexico Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India

Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium Alfred-Wegener-Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany École Normale Superieure, Paris, France University of Western Ontario, London, Canada (since 04/04) Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, Florida, USA IGBP Secretariat, Stockholm, Sweden CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Canberra, Australia (until 06/04) Institute of Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, USA

Meetings of IHDP Governing Bodies Meetings 2003/2004 03/03

IHDP Scientific Committee Meeting, Bonn, Germany

12/03

IHDP Executive Officers and Project Leaders Meeting, Cuernavaca, Mexico

Annual Report 2003/2004

IHDP Secretariat

03/04

IHDP Scientific Committee Meeting, Bonn, Germany

11/04

IHDP Executive Officers and Project Leaders Meeting, Bonn, Germany

Structure

Since 2003, the Executive Officers of the IHDP core projects have started to take a more prominent role in the strategic development of the programme. For example, they are invited to take part in the annual meetings of the Project Leaders and the IHDP Scientific Committee Meetings. The information flow and the cooperation between the Secretariat and the International Project Offices (IPOs) have been enhanced in order to promote programmatic developments.

9.3

IHDP Secretariat The IHDP Secretariat was significantly re-structured in 2003 in order to define clear competences and create stronger complementarities between the different sections, Science Coordination, Capacity Building, Information and Administration. In view of the multiple tasks of the Secretariat and its limited financial resources, its performance has to be as efficient as possible and reflect a specific set of priorities. In March 2004 a new position for the organization of the 6th Open Meeting 2005 was created. Currently (June 2004) the Secretariat has 12 staff members, of which only three are full time and the others in half-time positions. The Secretariat takes charge of interns (students and PhD students) on a regular base.

The Secretariat Staff in 2003/2004 Barbara Gรถbel, Executive Director

International Science Project Co-ordinators Ike Holtmann (part-time, until 08/03) Sylvia Karlsson (until 06/03) Gregor Laumann Debra Meyer-Wefering (part-time, since 06/03) Maarit Thiem (part-time, since 09/03)

Capacity Building Workshops Coordinator Valerie Schulz (part-time)

Open Meeting 2005 Coodinator Lis Mullin (part-time, since 03/04; full-time starting 09/04)

Information Officer Elisabeth Dyck (until 06/03, part-time) Ula Lรถw (since 07/03, part-time)

General Office Administrator Lisa Jibikilayi (until 06/03, part-time) Anna Middel (since 07/03)

Finance Administrator Denise Buttler (until 06/03) Britta Schmitz (since 09/03, part-time)

Library Assistant Anja Trauschies (since 04/03, part-time)

Annual Report 2003/2004

Budget

Student Assistants Ali Khan (part-time) Sama Mbah (part-time)

Interns Bianca Hausherr (10-12/03) Nora Ludwig (08-10/04) Marion Schulte zu Berge (08-10/03) Verena Weller (02-04/03; 04-05/04)

10.

Budget in 2003 Income IHDP 2003 The total income of IHDP in 2003 was US$ 1,344,660. The International Council for Science (ICSU) and the International Social Science Council (ISSC) as joint scientific sponsors of IHDP provided an annual financial contribution to the programme. The German Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF), the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) and the Research Ministry of North-Rhine Westphalia (MWF) granted the core funding of the work of the IHDP Secretariat in Bonn in 2003. Specific activities, such as capacity building workshops, meetings, and publications, were supported by a number of organizations and funding agencies, namely START, APN, IAI, the U.S. Consortium of Social Science Associations (COSSA), and the German National Research Center for Environment and Health (GSF). In addition, IHDP received in 2003 national contributions from Austria, China Taipei, Finland, France, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland. For 2004, Spain has announced a national contribution to the Secretariat. Since 1996, the Secretariat has been hosted by the University of Bonn, which generously provides a part of the infrastructure and administrative in-kind support. Sweden China Taipei GSF (Germany) Norway ISSC COSSA (USA) Netherlands MWF (Germany) France

Switzerland Finland Austria

BMBF (Germany)

ICSU

NSF (USA)

INCOME IHDP 2003

Expenditures IHDP 2003 From the total expenditure of US $962,470 in 2003, US $515,162 was spent on scientific activities (49% on scientific meetings and networking, 20% on contributions to core projects, 12% on publications, 8% on contributions to ESS-P joint

Annual Report 2003/2004

Budget

projects, 7% on capacity building, and 3% on new initiatives). The remaining US $ 447,308 went towards administrative costs (90 % salaries, 10 % office costs).

New Initiatives (IHDP & ESSP) Capacity Building Contributions to Joint Projects Publications Scientific Activities

Contributions to Core Projects

Administrative Expenses

Scientific Meetings and Networking

Expenditure IHDP 2003

Financial status core research projects 2003 Each International Project Office (IPO) of the four core projects receives an annual grant from IHDP's core budget. In addition, the IPOs are funded by national bodies and other sources. Their annual budgets vary, depending on special grants and circumstances. Funders include the Federal Office for Scientific and Technical Affairs of the Belgian Government (LUCC), the US National Science Foundation (IDGEC), a number of Canadian sources including industry sponsoring (GECHS) and The Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences as well as the Netherlands Research Program on Climate Change (IT). Also, all IPOs receive inkind support from their host institutions.

Final word Thanks to all of those involved in the “running” of IHDP for the year 2003, whether in the secretariat or in remote nodes across the world, for your commitment and scientific inputs. We also gratefully thank our funding organizations and supporting institutions!

List of Abbreviations and Acronyms AIST APN AVISO BMBF CEMEDE CICERO CIESIN CLUE CNRS COSSA DFG DIVERSITAS

Japan National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Information Bulletin of the GECHS Project Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (German Federal Ministry for Education and Research) Centro Mesoamericano de Desarollo Sostenible del Trópico Seco Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Center for International Earth Science Information Network Conversion of Land-Use and its Effects Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique Consortium of Social Science Associations Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (German Research Council) International Programme on Biodiversity Science

Annual Report 2003/2004

Abbreviations

ECLAC EEZ ENSO ESF ESS-P GCP GEC GECaFS GECHS GLOBEC GLOCHAMORE GLP GSF GWSP IAI ICSU IDGEC IFPRI IFS IFW IGBP IGES IGOS-P IHDP IHDW IIASA IPCC IPO ISPC ISSC ISTS IT IVM LOICZ LTSER LUCC MA MAIRS MOSUS MRI MWF NASA NIES NKGCF NSF PERN PIK RIVM SAVI SBSTA SCENIC SCOPE SSC START

UN Economic Commission for Latin America & the Caribbean Exclusive Economic Zones El Nino/Southern Oscillation European Science Foundation Earth System Science Partnership Global Carbon Project Global Environmental Change Global Environmental Change and Food Systems Global Environmental Change and Human Security Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics Global Change in Mountain Regions Global Land Project German National Research Centre for Environment and Health Global Water System Project Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research International Council for Science Institutional Dimensions of Global Environmental Change International Food Policy Research Institute International Foundation for Science Kiel Institute for World Economics International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme Institute for Global Environmental Strategies Integrated Global Observation Partnership International Human Dimensions Programme International Human Dimensions Workshop International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change International Project Office International Scientific Planning Committee International Social Science Council Initiative on Science and Technology for Sustainability Industrial Transformation Instituut voor Milieuvraagstukken (Institute for Environmental Studies) Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zones Long-Term Socio-Ecological Research Land-Use and Land-Cover Change Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Monsoon Area Integrated Regional Studies Modelling Opportunities and Limits for Restructuring Europe towards Sustainability Mountain Research Initiative Research Ministry of North-Rhine Westphalia National Aeronautics and Space Administration National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan German National Committee on Global Change Research U.S. National Science Foundation Population-Environment Research Network Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid & Milieu Southern Africa Vulnerability Initiative Subsidary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice Network on Global Change Science in Eastern Europe and Newly Independent Countries Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment Scientific Steering Committee Global Change System for Analysis, Research and Training

Annual Report 2003/2004

TERI TWAS UNCCD UNFCCC WCRP WSSD YHDR ZEF

The Energy and Resources Institute, India Third World Academy of Sciences United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change World Climate Research Programme World Summit on Sustainable Development Young Human Dimensions Researchers Centre for Development Research

I NTERNATIONAL H UMAN D IMENSIONS P ROGRAMME IHDP Secretariat Walter-Flex-Str. 3 D-53113 Bonn Germany

G LOBAL E NVIRONMENTAL C HANGE

Telephone: Fax: E-mail: Web: sponsored by

+49 (0)228 73 90 50 +49 (0)228 73 90 54 ihdp@uni-bonn.de www.ihdp.org