/7192

IHDP

UPDATE

N E W S L E T T E R O F T H E I N T E R N AT I O N A L H U M A N D I M E N S I O N S P R O G R A M M E O N G LO B A L E N V I R O N M E N TA L C H A N G E

03/2002 FO CUS:

CITIES AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE

URBANISATION C

Challenges and Opportunities for a Human Dimension Perspective | BY

O N T E N T S

1

Cities and Global Environmental Change | R. Sanchez-Rodriguez

4

Cities, Water and Global Environmental Change | C. Cocklin

6

Cities: Are They Good for Health? | B. Caldwell, T. McMichael

8

Sustainability of Asia’s MegaCities | S. Dhakal, S. Kaneko, H. Imura

R OBERTO S ANCHEZ -R ODRIGUEZ

11 The Athens Heat Island | M. Santamouris Photo: C. Britton, www.FreeFoto.com

12 Masthead 13 A Human Face for Prague’s Suburbs? | L. Kupková 14 Risk and Vulnerability in Developing Countries | E. López Granados, G. Bocco

Cities are complex and dynamic systems that reproduce the interactions between socio-economic and environmental processes at a local and global scale. It is estimated that more than half of the world’s population, ca.3.3 billion people, live in urban areas. More than 90 percent of future population growth will be concentrated in cities in developing countries and a large percentage of this population will be poor. Cities are also driving forces in economic growth. The World Bank estimates that in the developing world, as much as 80 percent of future economic growth will occur in cities. They are also the locus of a diversity of environmental problems with severe local and global negative consequences that potentially affect millions of people.

Despite their importance for economic growth, social well-being and the sustainability of present and future generations, cities have not received the level of attention they require in the study of global environmental change (GEC). Attention has concentrated so far mainly on megacities and their role in the emission of greenhouse gases. Although this is clearly an important topic for the GEC agenda, there are other relevant issues. Particularly critical is the study of the impacts of GEC on cities, and medium-sized and small cities must also be included in the research agenda.

The path of urbanisation mentioned above makes these issues critical for the present and future well-being of millions of people in developing and developed countries.

The number and extent of recent climate-related natural disasters in cities illustrate the devastating consequences of some of those impacts. But disasters represent only

➤

➤

continued on page 2

15 Unsustainable Desert Settlements in Egypt | A.Saad Shalaby 16 Eco-capital and its Services in Urbanisation | Dan Hu 17 International Human Dimensions Workshop 2002 | M. Thiem, V. Schulz 18 Core Projects: IDGEC SSC Convenes in Bali | S. A. Ebbin 19 National Committees: An Indian Experience | P.S. Ramakrishnan 20 Surviving the Third Millennium | E. Dyck 21 In Brief, Meeting Calendar 22 Publications 23 Onward and Upward Interview with IHDP Executive Director Jill Jäger 24 Contact addresses

W W W. I H D P. O R G I H D P U p d a t e i s p u b l i s h e d b y t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l H u m a n D i m e n s i o n s P r o g r a m m e o n G l o b a l E n v i r o m e n t a l C h a n g e ( I H D P ) , Wa l t e r - F l e x - S t r. 3 , 5 3 1 1 3 B o n n , G e r m a n y, V. i . S . d. P. : E l i s a b e t h D y c k

urbanisation

CITIES AND GEC

This issue of UPDATE focusses on the topic of urbanisation. The articles provide clear evidence of the wide range of human dimensions issues raised by consideration of human-environment interactions in relation to cities. Over the past two years, the IHDP Scientific Committee (SC) has debated whether more emphasis should be placed on the topic of urbanisation within IHDP. The topic is already taken up by the IHDP core projects and is entering the agendas of the joint projects.

However, in view of the expected rate of urbanisation and the challenges it poses for sustainable development, perhaps the topic deserves even more attention by the human dimensions research community. The SC suggested that a »scoping activity« should be carried out and be discussed at the SC meeting in 2003. Part of that scoping activity was the International Human Dimensions Workshop (IHDW) held in Königswinter, near Bonn, in June 2002. This issue of UPDATE includes articles by the organisers, speakers and participants of that workshop, as well as other scholars addressing important areas of research related to urbanisation. I would encourage all of our readers who are interested in pursuing these issues further to look at the website of the workshop (www.ihdw2002.de), which will be updated with the papers of the participants when they are available.

The capacity building activities of IHDP have been very important. We are proud that participants from the 1998 and 2000 workshops were accepted for sessions at the Open Meetings of the Human Dimensions Research Community and look forward to welcoming participants from all of the workshops at the Open Meeting to be held October 14 – 16, 2003 in Montreal, Canada. A further success with respect to capacity building is reflected in the reports produced through our »Seed Grant Initiative«, indicating »Who is Doing What?« in human dimensions research in developing countries and countries with economies in transition. The first volume of reports was published in 2001; a second volume is now in press (see the IHDP website for further details).

My term as Executive Director IHDP will soon come to an end. I will leave the Secretariat after more than three years of very hard work secure in the knowledge that the financial basis of the Secretariat is stable (but not rosy), that the Secretariat staff is doing a great job of initiating and co-ordinating research, providing an essential contribution for capacity building and a node for networks of human dimensions researchers. The IHDP website and newsletter have become major elements in our communications activities. Without the incredible support of all of the Secretariat staff, IHDP would not have made such enormous progress.

Thanks and Goodbye, ➤

J ILL J ÄGER IHDP Executive Director

2 | IHDP NEWSLETTER 3/2002

some of the topics that need to be addressed. GEC in cities covers a diverse and broad range of issues. Cities are a major source for changes in land use and land cover, since they are major users of energy, natural resources and food. The socioeconomic characteristics and functions of cities are also affected by climate variability and a diversity of other issues on the GEC agenda.

CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

The biggest challenge for a broader GEC perspective on cities is the creation of new conceptual frameworks and methodologies to study these issues. The growing recognition that disciplinary approaches create only fragmented perspectives of reality is fostering the creation of multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to the study of the environment and society interactions, including GEC. Concepts like sustainable development have sought to create multidimensional approaches as a way to define new paths for increased societal well-being based on the protection of the environment and intra- and inter-generational equity.

Unfortunately, the concept has not been able to create those multidimensional approaches, and it Uncontrolled urban growth frequently happens in risk prone areas. has had little attachment to specific realities that could transform it into concrete policies and programmes. The study of global environmental issues faces a similar challenge. Attention should be given not only to each of the dimensions involved in global environmental issues and the interactions among them, but also how those dimensions and their interactions affect concrete social realities at different scales, from the local to the global.

Cities offer a unique set of opportunities to advance the creation of new conceptual frameworks for GEC research.

Cities have been studied from a diversity of perspectives. The long tradition of urban studies has produced significant knowledge about the social, economic, political and environmental dimensions of urban issues. Contributions from the social sciences (urban sociology, urban economics, urban politics, and urban geography) are significantly larger than in other topics of the GEC agenda. The study of urban climate, landscape ecology and engineering provide a different set of contributions from other disciplines. Urban management and planning have added practical approaches to the management of physical aspects of urban growth.

Missing so far is the integration of these dimensions. Despite

Photo: R. Sanchez

EDITORIAL

urbanisation

Urbanisation in developing countries is a mosaic of contrasts between the rich and poor, the legal and illegal.

tainable urban development and evaluates progress in the implementation of the Habitat Agenda and Agenda 21. An analysis of the content of these programmes shows an array of information useful for improvements in urban management but with little attention or reference to GEC. Incorporating research results of GEC into these programmes provides a unique opportunity to link scientific research with stakeholders as end users of this knowledge.

These programmes work through a decentralised network of partners including government agencies, local authorities, civic organisations, professional organisations and academic institutions. The World Association of Cities and Local Authorities, the International Union of Local Authorities and other parallel international efforts offer similar opportunities.

Cities offer the unique opportunity of reaching out to a large number of local and national officials and other stakeholders making decisions that affect or are affected by GEC. This linkage is critical in transforming scientific results of GEC research into goals, policies, programmes and actions.

It might also prove important for the success of the development of the new Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP) of the international global environmental change programmes (IGBP, IHDP, WCRP and DIVERSITAS) seeking to create an integrated perspective of GEC. But most important, it creates new opportunities for sustainability for the present and future generations. ➤

R EFERENCES to this article are included on the IHDP website at www.ihdp.org/update0302/references.htm ➤

the achievements mentioned above, urban studies have created fragmented perspectives of complex realities. Efforts to create an integrated perspective under urban planning have been reduced to technical approaches focusing solely on the physical aspects of urban growth.

The study of GEC can take advantage of a broad base of disciplinary knowledge that facilitates the creation of new interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary perspectives.

Particularly critical is a better understanding of the interactions among the social, economic, political and environmental dimensions. In the case of cities, these interactions take place in a small territory, and they are rapidly influenced or impacted by national, regional and global social and environmental processes. Efforts in this direction, such as the integrated assessment approach, are likely to make significant contributions in the near future. However, it is also worth considering contributions from other approaches.

Suitable for the study of GEC in cities is the concept of vulnerability. Contributions in this direction focus on social processes and historical social relations in an effort to understand the underlying causes of vulnerability (1,2,3,4). Under this approach, vulnerability has two principal components: an external source of stress or shock and an internal component addressing the social relationships that shape an individual’s or group’s exposure and capacity to respond to and cope with the damaging consequences of the external stress.

The »vulnerability approach« creates a multidimensional framework that pays attention to the economic, social, environmental dimensions, as well as the interactions among them. The analysis incorporates the interactions among these dimensions at different scales, from the local to the global. The external stress is often associated with the environment, e.g., extreme events related to climate variability and climate change. The internal component illustrates the range of social processes that contribute to understanding the consequences of environmental change for diverse social groups and individuals.

The study of GEC in cities also offers opportunities to bridge between scientific research and decision-making.

These opportunities are created by the array of international initiatives designed to support improvements in urban management. These initiatives create close links with local decision-makers, and they are dedicated to sharing and applying the lessons learned from innovative practice. For example, the UN Center for Human Settlements (Habitat) sponsors a global network of capacity building organizations seeking to build awareness of proven solutions and demonstrates experience and innovative strategies for policy and decision-making at all levels. Habitat’s programme includes a series of components that provide guidance to local and national decision makers (Habitat’s agenda, Agenda 21, State of the World’s Cities Report, Urban Indicators Program, and Global Urban Observatory, the Best Practices and Leadership Program). It also monitors global trends in sus-

Photo: R. Sanchez

CITIES AND GEC

R OBERTO S ANCHEZ -R ODRIGUEZ is a Professor at the Department of Environmental Studies, University of California, Santa Cruz, USA; he is a member of the IHDP Scientific Committee and was the scientific leader of the International Human Dimensions Workshop 2002; rsanchez@weber.ucsd.edu; www.ucsd.edu IHDP NEWSLETTER 3/2002 | 3

urbanisation

C I T I E S , WAT E R A N D G E C

CITIES, WATER AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Governance, water use and infrastructure as a remedy for water issues in cities | BY C HRIS C OCKLIN

The relationship between cities and water is at once vital and at the same time uneasy. As a basic necessity of life, urban dwellers cannot do without drinking water. But water is also a cleanser, an essential resource for industry, a medium for transportation, a repository for wastes, and a component of ecological processes on which life depends. The uneasiness arises because the relationship between people and water is in a tenuous state. In the context of an increasing world population and the seemingly inexorable process of urbanisation, many are predicting a global water crisis.

According to the UNEP Global Environmental Outlook 2000 report, »Water security, like food security, will become a major national and regional priority in many areas of the world in the years to come« (p. xxii).

Vulnerability is widely represented in terms of inadequate supplies of potable water, inadequate sanitation, and exposure to waterborne diseases. Water poses a threat to people through the hazards of flooding and inundation, and as a potential contributor to land instability. These material aspects of water constitute what we refer to as the biophysical dimension of water-related vulnerability (Fig. 1). The social dimension arises from the differentiated exposure and the variable ability to cope with these vulnerabilities.

Differential vulnerabilities exist within cities, between cities and across nations. The poor have less access to adequate sanitation and are often forced to live in areas exposed to high levels of water pollution. Estimates suggest that 20 per-

➤

cent of the world’s population already lacks access to safe drinking water, and 50 percent of the population do not have access to adequate sanitation. Contaminated water and standing water that provides a habitat for mosquitoes pose serious threats to human health. Children are amongst the most vulnerable to the health-related effects.

The other element of social vulnerability relates to the ability to cope. Lack of financial resources, institutional failures, and inadequate infrastructure that characterise so many cities in developing countries imply that they are far less able to deal with water-related problems than cities in the West. While significant improvements in economic and material well-being were a corollary of urbanisation in the West, this has not been the case in developing nations. In 1987, the Brundtland Report, Our Common Future, observed that cities in the developing world were on the verge of a crisis, due to their inability to supply basic infrastructure and services, including clean water and sanitation.

Within cities, the disempowerment of the poor severely curtails their capacity to cope with vulnerabilities associated with water. The fact that water degradation and scarcity disproportionately affect the world’s poor and underprivileged has therefore rightly been a recurrent theme in the analysis of exposure to water-related problems. At a conference of seven of the world’s poorest nations in June 2000 (the P7 Summit), delegates called for water to be treated as a fundamental human right, not as a market commodity.

Fig. 1. Global environmental change and water-related vulnerability

Biophysical Vulnerability • Water quality • Water supply • Water-related natural hazards

Global Environmental Change • Urbanisation • Climate change • Economic transformation • Land use change

Exposure

Sensitivity

Coping

Socio-economic Vulnerability • Institutional capacity • Social capacity • Economic capacity

4 | IHDP NEWSLETTER 3/2002

urbanisation

C I T I E S , WAT E R A N D G E C

should be integrated and strategic, to ensure that infrastructural and service needs are commensurate with population and economic growth, and adequate provision is made for human health and welfare.

Use: Like many natural resources, water has been used profligately, because we have assumed it is in abundant supply. Consequently, much of it is simply wasted or allocated inappropriately. The straightforward answer is improved efficiencies in use, re-use, conservation, and allocation to higher valued uses, but the means to achieve these outcomes are not as clear. Improved demand management is the central issue. In some western nations, economic instruments have proven effective in moderating demand and shifting water use away from low-value uses. However, there is an equity effect when water, a basic necessity, is priced, and so the moral and ethical legitimacy of pricing as a demand management tool comes into question. In such situations, information exchange, community-based approaches, and prescribed allocations are likely to be more appropriate interventions.

Infrastructure: Inadequate infrastructure affects the efficiency of water supply and contributes to the risks to human health and the environment through poor sanitation. The vulnerability to natural hazards, such as flooding, is partly determined by the characteristics of urban built infrastructure. Better transportation and storage of water, improved technological design (which can be as simple as dual-flush toilets), upgraded treatment facilities, and better urban design to minimise risks of inundation are required. In some contexts, particularly in developed nations, the strategies to achieve these outcomes are apparent: pricing, planning regulations, development levies, etc. In the cash-strapped economies of the developing world, where the vulnerabilities are greatest, the outcomes are less easily achieved and require substantial investments of aid money to improve the infrastructure. It is a sad indictment on our priority-setting that western nations are seemingly prepared to expend vast, indeed almost unlimited, amounts of money on armaments and defence, when a fraction of the same expenditure would ensure adequate supplies of potable water and sanitation for the world’s population.

Attention to governance, use and infrastructure would help to remedy many of the existing issues of water in cities.

At the same time, it would help to mitigate the effects of global environmental change on water resources in the context of an urbanising world. From a policy perspective, it is important to bear in mind that there are no universal solutions. What has worked in terms of improved water resource management in developed nations may not work in the context of cities in developing countries and, indeed, may have unacceptable moral and ethical repercussions. ➤

The relationship between cities and water connects intricately to global environmental change. Cities are significant drivers of global change processes (e.g., climate change, land-use/cover change or changes in the hydrological cycle).

Clearing of forests in the hinterlands of cities can have significant effects on hydrological regimes. Soil infiltration rates and surface and sub-surface flows are affected by the removal of vegetation. The possible effects include changes in water supply, increased risk of flooding and land instability. Forest clearing in water catchments is believed to pose threats to human health due to effects on water quality.

Alterations in precipitation patterns are a predicted consequence of human-induced changes in climate. Increased temperatures will have impacts on the demands for water for drinking, cooling, and watering. Forecasts show that climate change will increase the frequency and severity of storms in some parts of the world, and associated increases in precipitation (intensity, duration and quantity) will exacerbate the flood risk. Climate change might also have direct effects on the adequacy of water supply, due to reduced precipitation.

For Australia, the world’s driest inhabited continent, recent predictions indicate less precipitation in some parts of the country, which would affect major urban centres. Australian cities already have one of the highest per capita water storage levels in the world, yet they still experience shortages during protracted dry periods. The vulnerability to water shortages in this highly urbanised society is likely to increase as a consequence of climate change. While this is serious in its own right, Australians have the economic, infrastructural and societal capacity to cope. The same cannot be said of many developing nations, and some will face increasing problems of water supply as a result of climate change.

What can be done to reduce the water-related vulnerability of cities and improve the security of their inhabitants?

Three closely interlinked realms of intervention that hold the promise of improved human security in relation to water may provide an answer.

Governance: Important issues include property rights, the management and control of water (public or private), institutional arrangements and the degree of integration of economic, social, environmental and infrastructural planning. In many jurisdictions water is poorly managed and administered. In the public sector, responsibilities for water infrastructure, bulk water supply, supply to users, treatment and disposal are often divided amongst several agencies.

Privatising water has often led to unhappy results. Property rights are poorly specified in many cases, leading to conflicts between cities and their rural hinterlands over entitlements to water.

At a general level, then: i) institutional structures relating to water supply and management should be simplified, with clear responsibilities and a transparency of operations and processes; ii) the privatisation of water has questionable net social benefits in any context and is almost certainly inappropriate in most developing nations; iii) property rights associated with water need to be clearly specified; iv) communities should be involved in decisions relating to water; v) for developing nations, capacity building is required in terms of governance and planning; vi) development planning

C HRIS C OCKLIN is Director of the Monash Environment Institute, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia; he is also a member of the Scientific Steering Committee of the IHDP Project on Global Environmental Change and Security (GECHS) and was a lecturer at the IHDW 2002; Chris.Cocklin@arts.monash.edu.au; www.mei.monash.edu.au/ IHDP NEWSLETTER 3/2002 | 5

urbanisation

C I T I E S A N D H E A LT H

CITIES: ARE THEY GOOD FOR HEALTH? The implications of continuing urbanisation for human well-being | BY B RUCE C ALDWELL

AND

TONY M C M ICHAEL City living is one of the characteristics of modern life.

An increasing proportion of humanity either lives in cities or lives outside but in societies that are urban focussed. Cities are not new – the term civilisation itself refers to living in cities – but the dominance of cities as the major mode of living is much more recent. In the developed world urbanisation is a phenomenon of the 19th and early 20th centuries; in the developing world it is still incomplete with rapid urban growth commencing in the late twentieth century and unlikely to finish before its end. Increasingly, then, the nature of urban living is critical to human health.

➤

CITIES AND THE BENEFITS OF PUBLIC HEALTH

Historically, cities were associated with exceptionally poor health: until the late 19th century cities were characterised by death rates that exceeded the generally high birth rates – urban populations were maintained only by continuous rural-urban migration. The cities were notorious for overcrowding and poor sanitation, as images of Dickensian London bring to mind. Infectious disease was rife, with huge death rates from e.g., pneumonia, tuberculosis and even the plague. As a result, in the late 19th century cities led the world in movements to improve public health (1).

The situation changed radically in the 20th century. Cities in the developed world and, to a lesser extent, in the developing world became noted for their exceptional public services and facilities. They were the places where the best hospitals were to be found, and, in a sharp reversal of the earlier situation, the safest drinking water, the best sanitation, and, following slum removal programs, the best housing. As a result, measures of health including life expectancy are generally better in urban than rural areas. This has been especially true in the developing world where cities, despite often appalling living conditions, have been comparatively privileged islands of good health facilities and other public services, surrounded by rural neglect.

FUTURE HEALTH CONCERNS

This situation might seem to suggest that the current ongoing urbanisation will result in improved health, but the situation is more complex than that. Especially in the developing world many of the factors that made cities relatively healthy are diminishing, while their disadvantages in both the developing and the developed world may be increasing.

Simultaneously, cities may have a longer-term and global effect on the sustainability of good health.

In part, because of their very growth, cities in the developing world are losing some aspects of their erstwhile privileged status. Rapid urban growth in developing countries has led to health and social services being stretched. This is partly offset by the implementation of the ‘user pays’ principle, but this aggravates the health problems. Hospitals, once 6 | IHDP NEWSLETTER 3/2002

catering to small urban populations, are now overcrowded and inadequate. Water and sewerage services once effectively providing for much smaller towns, now provide inadequate services for limited parts of large cities, usually the better-off areas most able to pay for the services. Illegal settlements, in which many of the poor live, rarely receive any such services because this is seen as adding to the illegality of the situation.

With the growth of the cities urban populations have become much more unequal. Cities no longer consist of a small, non-rural elite but increasingly of a broad mass of people attracted by the city. The poor characteristically live in settlements marked by an unhealthy environment and overcrowded housing. In the worse situations, those settlements are illegal and receive few if any municipal services such as water, sanitation, and rubbish collection. Not surprisingly, they are prone to high rates of infectious diseases such as pneumonia, tuberculosis and diarrhoea.

CHANGING SOCIAL BEHAVIOUR

City life also impacts on health in other ways. In the cities, traditional controls on social behaviour are lessened or even absent. This can provide new opportunities for people, but it can also lead to dangers. Cities often have high levels of violence. Traditional institutions that protected the people against crime and violence are weak, while in many developing cities legal and policing institutions are poorly developed. In some cities criminal gangs provide young men, with few skills or contacts, a substitute for family relations and a way of prospering in an alien environment.

Gender violence is an issue where women are encouraged or forced out of traditional family roles, but traditional attitudes to women remain unchanged. This is particularly so where families are in a weak position to protect daughters from strangers and even from abusive husbands.

Sexual diseases, including HIV/AIDS, often associated with high levels of commercial sex, are commonly found in cities. Recorded HIV levels in Eastern and Southern Africa are typically higher in the towns and cities. Rates of infectious diseases or deaths from infectious diseases have generally not worsened in the cities, though HIV is increasingly the exception. Public health measures, such as better immunisation coverage have prevented this, but, arguably, community health has not improved as much as it should have.

Along with increased urban differentiation, there has been a shift in many countries towards private medicine. This is occurring partly for ideological reasons and partly as a result of the inability of the public health system to meet the costs required to provide for the increasing demand. It also reflects a lessening concern among the elite for the health of the poor. In the past, the elite was more likely to support public health measures among the urban poor to lessen the

urbanisation

C I T I E S A N D H E A LT H

certainly worse. In a recent survey U5MR was estimated to be 165 in the bosties and 115 in non-bostie slums (4). The figures are much higher among the extreme poor.

Malnutrition is a problem; a high proportion of the very ATMOSPHERIC POLLUTION poor have been short of food in the recent past. The very poor live in an impoverished environment, in extremely A problem of cities everywhere is that of chemical pollupoor and overcrowded housing. In the bosties few housetion, arising from the concentration of industry and increasholds have access to piped water, most having to share wells. ing dependence on cars for transport. Cities are not only A high proportion of the population relies upon inadequate major producers of chemical pollution, but, by concentratsanitation, including open latrines or no latrines at all. In ing large numbers of people, they increase the number of cases where households do have access to sanitary latrines, people at risk. The pollution that is produced in the cities up to 10 households or 50 individuals may share one. Young and by power stations for cities, adds to the problem. The children rarely bother to use them; their faeces are collected fumes include greenhouse gases, which, by adding to global and thrown onto rubbish heaps or simply into the open. The warming, have major long-term consequences for global insecurity of tenure in the bosties means that the househealth by extending conditions favourable to the spread of owners have little incentive to improve matters by building such diseases as malaria, dengue and diarrhoeal infections better facilities.

(2).

As a result of these poor environmental conditions, disCity populations are associated with an increasing worldeases such as pneumonia and diarrhoea remain common wide ‘epidemic’ of obesity. Urban-dwellers are more likely to killers of children, and tuberculosis of adults. Although be affluent, have sedentary occupations, and use motorized access to health facilities is better than in rural Bangladesh, it transport. Cities lack space for sporting activities, while is not fully utilized. Health services are often not convenient. offering alternative non-physical recreational activities that Increasingly, the health system is based on private services, effectively discourage exercise. which are expensive and usually located in better-off areas.

DHAKA Government health services are predominantly in the form of hospitals, mostly found in the older part of the cities, and The issues concerning cities and health are brought out in are difficult to attend for many of the poor. Services that are a particularly stark form by Dhaka, the capital of in theory free usualBangladesh. Dhaka ly involve payment is one of the fastest at least for medicine. growing cities in the Often families have world, having to queue for services increased from – time they can ill 300,000 inhabitants afford away from some 50 years ago to work. around 13 million Many of the today (3). It has been poor, especially transformed from a those who are recent largely administramigrants and with tive town to a comlittle schooling, plex metropolis with believe that alloa huge socio-ecopathic (western nomic gradient from medicine) medical a very wealthy elite services are not to a vast, poor, urban appropriate to all population, with medical conditions, many recent rural Children in the bosties of Dhaka, Bangladesh. especially those migrants. The pooraffecting young chilest live in squatter dren for whom traditional health providers are preferred. settlements known as bastes (or bosties), with the destitute Many also complain that allopathic health providers do not living on the streets of the main city as pavement-dwellers. treat them with respect. An additional problem is posed by Those who migrate are economically better off than their the fact that men, who may be working away from home rural counterparts. In health terms the evidence is more during critical hours, control family finances, and women mixed, despite the fact that Bangladesh’s medical and health are reluctant to take decisions to seek medical help in their facilities and expertise are concentrated in Dhaka. The absence. under-5-years mortality rates (U5MR), though declining, is Violence is a major problem, especially in the bosties, only marginally better in urban Bangladesh (96.7 in 1999with police protection being minimal. Women may be sub2000) than in rural Bangladesh (112.6), a differential that is ject to acid attacks for not accepting a man as a husband, and diminishing (in 1993-1994 U5MR was 114.3 in urban areas abduction is major concern. On top on this, Dhaka suffers and 153.2 in rural areas). Among the urban poor it is almost Photo: B. Caldwell

risk of contagion for itself. Now health advances such as better immunisation and antibiotics mean that they are less at risk.

IHDP NEWSLETTER 3/2002 | 7

urbanisation

C I T I E S A N D H E A LT H

from extremely high atmospheric pollution including excessive levels of lead, nitrous oxides and suspended particulate matter due to poorly maintained motor vehicle engines (5).

CONCLUSION

➤

R EFERENCES to this article are included on the IHDP website at www.ihdp.org/update0302/references.htm ➤

Whereas cities once were places of disease and death, they were subsequently the crucibles of the nineteenth century public health movements, and their populations were the greatest beneficiaries of advances in knowledge on how to overcome disease and increase life expectancy. As urbanisation continues, however, these achievements are coming under strain, especially in the developing world, where many cities are struggling to maintain the health facilities and other public services necessary for good public health. Of great concern for the future, urbanisation is contributing to emerging concerns such as obesity and global warming, both of which have major implications for future human well-

being. While future directions in urban health are inevitably uncertain, what does happen is of great concern, if simply because the proportion of the world’s population living in cities, which was less than 5% in 1800 and is now 47%, is expected to be nearing 65% by 2030 (6).

B RUCE C ALDWELL is a Research Fellow at the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia. bruce.caldwell@anu.edu.au TONY M C M ICHAEL is Director of the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia. tony.mcmichael@anu.edu.au; http://nceph.anu.edu.au/

SUSTAINABILITY OF ASIA’S MEGA-CITIES Policies for Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Mitigation are the focus of research in co-operation with IHDP-IT | BY S HOBHAKAR D HAKAL , S HINJI K ANEKO SUSTAINABILITY AND MEGA-CITIES

The human-imposed threat to global sustainability has two fundamental dimensions: population growth and the ever-increasing per capita demand for goods and services, particularly material needs and energy. Mega-cities – defined as exceeding a population of ten millions – are characterized by a high population density and high material demands. They are also »front-runners« in terms of urban development, economic growth, industrial transformation, lifestyle changes and policy implementation.

Massive infrastructure developments are underway and consumerism is spreading. The deteriorating environmental situation has health and welfare implications for urban dwellers. In addition, a degradation of natural resources due to over-consumption of materials and services affect areas and people outside cities and will have an impact on future generations. Thus mega-cities and sustainability are inseparably linked. At the same time, compact settlements and high population density reduce per capita infrastructure and distribution costs and open up opportunities for economic scale effects. Thus mega-cities could facilitate the implementation of measures to reduce stress on sustainability.

ASIAN MEGA-CITIES ON THE RISE

Rapid urbanisation is a distinctive feature of Asia. For 1990-98, the average annual urban population growth was estimated at 3% for East Asia, 3.2% for South Asia and 2.1% for the world average (1). It is estimated that by 2030, 2.6 billion people will live in Asian cities, representing 53% of the world’s urban population (2). Predictions for 2015 show a total of 358 cities worldwide with a population of over a mil8 | IHDP NEWSLETTER 3/2002

AND

H IDEFUMI I MURA

lion people, of which 153 are expected to be in Asia (3).

From an estimated 27 mega-cities, 15 such cities will be in Asia. Thus a sustainable management of mega-cities is and will be a major issue for local as well as national policymakers.

THE ENERGY FACTOR

In this context, our research work, undertaken in cooperation with the IHDP Industrial Transformation Project, addresses energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Beijing, Seoul, Shanghai and Tokyo for the years 2001-2004, and makes projections for different scenarios, identifying major drivers and locally operational policies and strategies. The research also includes emissions embedded in materials and services consumed in megacities.

GHG Emissions from Energy Use – Beijing, Seoul, Shanghai and Tokyo: From 1970-1998, CO2 emissions from energy use have increased more than two-fold in Tokyo, with a growth rate of 2.5% per year. During the same time, the annual average growth rate of the local economy (gross regional product) was 6.87 %. For 1990-1998, annual average growth rates of CO2 emissions for Tokyo and Seoul are estimated at 1.7% and 1.63%, respectively.

In Tokyo, most emissions result from commercial activities and transportation, with oil and electricity being the main sources of CO2 emissions. Despite a slowing of economic growth in the1990s, emissions from sectors such as households, urban transportation and commercial activities continued to increase. Only CO2 emissions from the industrial sector decreased gradually, from 34% in 1970 to 10% in 1998.

urbanisation

ASIA’S MEGA-CITIES

Households are still the main source of emissions in Seoul, while commercial activities cause the least. The economic crisis that gripped South Korea in 1997 had an evident influence on this situation. Oil contributes to nearly 60% of the total CO2 emissions due to its dominant use in buildings and urban transportation and also because, unlike Tokyo, most of the big buildings in Seoul use oil-based central heating systems.

In Beijing, the industry sector contributes nearly 60% of the total emissions, followed by households (14%). Urban transportation contributes only about 6%. Shanghai’s situation is similar to Beijing, with industry contributing over 70% and urban transportation about 9%. The emission volumes of Beijing, Shanghai and Seoul are 1.3, 1.7 and 0.7 times higher than the Tokyo value (Fig. 1). Economic ELECTRICITY FUEL MIX (1998) activity was the major driving force Beijing / Shanghai: Almost all coal behind the changes in CO2 emisJapan national average: Coal 19.5%, Oil 16.5%, Gas 21%, Nuclear 32%, Others 11% Korea: Coal 42%, Oil 7%, Gas 11%, Nuclear 37.5%, Others 2.5% sions in Seoul during economic growth and recession periods (4).

In terms of CO2 emissions per unit Fig. 1. Total CO2 emissions from energy use, 1998 gross regional product and CO2 emissions per capita, Tokyo’s perventions to reduce GHG emissions. In both cities, fuel formance is outstanding in comparison to Seoul, Beijing, switching in industries is a viable option. Building insulaShanghai, major Japanese cities, national figures of OECD tion, efficiency improvement of electric appliances and fuel countries and major non-OECD countries (5). switching for central heating systems can also play an imporENERGY-GHG MANAGEMENT CHALLENGES tant role. Fuel switching would contribute to significantly reducing local pollutants. In Shanghai, car-limiting policies Energy efficiency, frequency and use patterns of devices have been successful so far; this city has adopted the and appliances, fuel choice, fuel quality, and industrial proSingapore style of auctioning registration permits for new ductivity are major factors that govern energy demand and vehicles. GHG emissions from urban transportation may GHG emissions. Mega-cities have a limited scope to modify seem low at the moment for both Beijing and Shanghai. land-use patterns to achieve maximum efficiency. The major However, massive investments in the transport systems are issue is how to reduce energy demand and GHG emissions planned for the coming years. Compared to other megawhile maintaining the urban population’s living standards. cities, private cars are relatively little used now, but Shanghai In Tokyo, population growth is more or less stabilized, and Beijing already suffer from serious air pollution from but per capita energy consumption is increasing. Major the transport sector. China’s growing economy and WTO opportunities for policy interventions are in the road transmembership is likely to increase incomes and reduce tariffs portation and household sectors. Fuel switching and for automobiles. Thus, urban planners in Beijing and enhancing industrial manufacturing processes may play a Shanghai are already projecting a 3 to 4-fold increase of cars minor role in reducing GHG emissions. Reductions will and trucks by 2020. require changes in lifestyle and consumer behavior. In Seoul, Reducing indirect energy consumption and GHG emisfuel switching in industries and buildings has contributed sions is another challenge. As mega-cities consume huge significantly to reducing GHG emissions in the last decade. amounts of materials and goods, this has implications for Unlike Tokyo, Seoul uses central heating systems in buildmanufacturing and resource-extraction sites outside cities. ings. The potentials for improving energy efficiency and fuel Cities should be judged by their »environmental load«, also switching are high. Road transportation and private cars are taking into account indirect emissions. The indirect energy another area of concern in Seoul. consumption of Tokyo (1995) and Shanghai (1992) is almost For Beijing and Shanghai, industry, buildings and urban three times and two times higher than their direct energy transportation are sectors with a great potential for interIHDP NEWSLETTER 3/2002 | 9

urbanisation

ASIA’S MEGA-CITIES

Beijing and Shanghai are in the process of reconstructing their infrastructure massively. Once this is done, the cities will be »locked in« to these infrastructures. At this early stage, policy makers should consider energy demand and emissions while constructing infrastructures and trying to reduce automobile dependency. Mass transportation strategies may look financially demanding, but are worth pursuing. Efficient infrastructure is possible with joint cost sharing between the government and the citizens.

Building sector: Prospects for implementing countermeasures in the building sector are enormous and include improvements in building insulation, appliance efficiency, and efficient central heating and cooling systems.

Building insulation is important but largely not taken seriously by policy makers. In mega-cities such as Shanghai rapid income increases during the past decade resulted in intensive use of heating and cooling devices and other electric appliances, but building insulation could not match this pace.

Efficient central heating and cooling systems for buildings through technology improvement and fuel switching are a key to energy issues. Simple measures such as changing from incandescent to fluorescent lamps can save huge amounts of energy. Building codes, laws, and standards can also promote appliance and building energy efficiency. The scope for improvements in appliance efficienFig. 2. CO2 emissions per capita versus per unit gross regional product cy may be less in Seoul and Tokyo than in (log scale) Beijing and Shanghai. Using renewable energy such as solar panels for hot water production, appropriate thermostat settings for COUNTERMEASURES AND ROLE OF POLICY MAKERS heating and cooling systems, and avoiding waste of electricity are key to saving energy.

Transportation and infrastructure: Potential counterDrastic changes in construction materials and techniques measures in the transportation sector include a switch to are required to make buildings and infrastructure sustainalternative fuels (e.g., compressed natural gas – CNG); proable. Improvements in technology, urban management and moting electric and hybrid vehicles; increasing average vehilife-style changes are key to a sustainable development in cle speed through traffic management; increasing the fuel mega-cities. efficiency of cars and improving fuel quality; improving public mass transportation systems and limiting private cars; R EFERENCES to this article are included on the IHDP and appropriate land-use planning. These measures should contribute to reducing travel demand, trip length and frewebsite at www.ihdp.org/update0302/references.htm quency. In Beijing, light duty gasoline trucks and cars are expected to become a key component in future reductions of S HOBHAKAR D HAKAL is a researcher at the Institute for energy demand and GHG emissions. Car-limiting policies Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), Japan; for new vehicles alone would not be sufficient in Beijing and dhakal@iges.or.jp; www.iges.or.jp Shanghai. Efficient public mass transportation systems are S HINJI K ANEKO is Associate Professor, Graduate School for inevitable for these cities. It is difficult to implement carInternational Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima limiting policies in Tokyo and Seoul. In terms of fuel effiUniversity, Japan; kshinji@hiroshima-u.ac.jp; ciency, fuel quality and the end-of-pipe technology at the www.hiroshima-u.ac.jp vehicle tailpipe, there is a limited scope for further drastic H IDEFUMI I MURA is Professor at the Graduate School of improvement in Tokyo and Seoul. The most promising way Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Japan; he is a is to implement policies that motivate people to change their member of the Scientific Steering Committee of the IHDP lifestyle (such as driving behaviour), and introduction of Project on Industrial Transformation hybrid and electric vehicles in conjunction with other tradi(www.vu.nl/ivm/research/ihdp-it/) tional measures. imura@genv.nagoya-u.ac.jp; www.genv.nagoya-u.ac.jp consumption. In Beijing, direct and indirect energy consumption are estimated to be equal. Since energy consumption is the proxy to GHG emissions, the »environmental load« that Tokyo exerts on other places is significantly higher than its direct emissions.

➤

➤

10 | IHDP NEWSLETTER 3/2002

urbanisation

THE ATHENS HEAT ISL AND

THE ATHENS HEAT ISLAND A large-scale, EC-funded experiment investigates links between urbanisation, climate and energy consumption in Athens, Greece | BY M ATTHAIOS S ANTAMOURIS From the climatologist’s point of view, »human history is defined as the history of urbanisation«. Today, at least 170 cities support more than one million inhabitants. Estimates suggest that urban populations will represent 80 percent of the total world population by 2100. In recent years, industrialisation and urbanisation have led to a dramatic increase in the number of urban buildings, which had major effects on the energy consumption in this sector.

Urban areas without a good climate quality use more energy for air conditioning in summer and more electricity for lighting. The urban population suffers under high temperatures; wind tunnel effects in streets and unusual wind turbulence due to inadequately designed high-rise buildings are very common (1). Thus, it has become increasingly important to study the urban climatic environment and apply the knowledge gained to improve people’s environment in cities. This article presents the main features and results of a large-scale experiment undertaken in Athens within the framework of the POLIS research programme of the European Commission (EC). The aim of the experiment was to investigate main parameters related to urban layout, climatic characteristics and energy consumption of buildings in Athens.

➤

area. Fig. 1 illustrates the spatial temperature distribution in the central Athens area during noontime on 1 August 1996.

As shown, the central Athens area is to about 7-8o C warmer than the surrounding area, while at the station of Ippokratous, located in a high traffic area, the temperature difference was about 12-13o C. A better understanding of the persistence of high temperature differences during the daytime is given if the cooling degree hours are calculated. We found that cooling degree-days at the surrounding Athens area were close to 107, while the corresponding value for the central area was 355.

EXPERIMENT AND RESULTS

Within the framework of the EC’s POLIS research project 35 temperature stations were installed in the main Athens region in June 1996, where the ambient temperature was measured on an hourly basis. High temperature differences between the urban and reference stations were recorded during the summer. During daytime, temperatures differed up to 14o C; this difference was particularly evident between a station in a high traffic area and the reference station. We noticed that the higher the temperature was in the urban station, the higher the temperature difference. This was mainly due to the thermal balance in the urban region where traffic adds to the heat inputs and increases local temperatures – which does not occur in the surrounding suburban reference region.

As a function of urban layout, traffic load, anthropogenic heat and the overall balance of each study area, temperature differences during the daytime varied from 0o to 14o C, with a mean temperature difference of 7-8o C. In the national park (Station: kip), located in the very centre of Athens, lower temperature differences were recorded; a main pedestrian street showed the lowest differences (Station: erm).

In general, during the daytime the city centre is characterized by much higher temperatures than the surrounding

Fig. 1. Temperature distribution in the central Athens area at 12:00 h on 1 August 1996.

During night periods, the central Athens region is about 3o C warmer than the reference suburban stations, but differences up to 5o C were recorded at many stations. The western part of Athens is characterised by high building density, lack of green spaces and heavy traffic; temperatures there were 3-4o C higher than at the reference station.

Cooling degree hours in the western part of Athens varied between 85 and 104, while the centre had 65-85 such hours and the Eastern, reference, part of Athens had 26.

ENERGY IMPACT

It is well accepted that urbanisation leads to a very high increase in energy use. A recent analysis (2) showed that a IHDP NEWSLETTER 3/2002 | 11

urbanisation

THE ATHENS HEAT ISL AND

Fig. 2. Iso – Cooling load lines for the reference building in Athens and for a set point temperature of 26o C (August1996). one percent increase in the per capita GNP causes an almost equal increase in energy consumption, i.e. by a factor of 1.03.

However, if the urban population grows by 1 percent, the energy consumption increases by 2.2 percent, which means that the rate of change in energy use is twice the rate of change in urbanisation. These data clearly show the impact of urbanisation on energy use.

Increased urban temperatures have a direct effect on the energy consumption of buildings during the summer period, as higher temperatures contribute to more electricity demand for cooling. The spatial variation of the monthly cooling load of a reference building in Athens, calculated by using hourly temperature data that were

➤ The IHDP UPDATE newsletter features the activities of the

International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change and its research community.

UPDATE is prepared by the IHDP Secretariat Walter-Flex-Strasse 3 53113 Bonn, Germany.

EDITOR: Elisabeth Dyck, IHDP; elisabeth.dyck@chello.at

PRINTED BY: Köllen Druck+Verlag GmbH, Bonn, Germany

The views and opinions expressed herein do not necessarily represent the position of IHDP or its sponsoring organisations.

12 | IHDP NEWSLETTER 3/2002

An extensive experimental project was carried out to investigate the temperature distribution in the main urban area of Athens. Thirty-five stations were installed and the recorded data were analysed. A significant temperature increase was recorded in the central Athens area. Energy analyses indicated that temperature increase has a very important impact on the energy consumption of buildings for cooling purposes.

Acknowledgment: The research was financed by the Directorate General for Science, Research and Development of the European Commission within the framework of the POLIS research project.

R EFERENCES to this article are included on the IHDP website at www.ihdp.org/update0302/references.htm ➤

UPDATE is published four times per year. Sections of UPDATE may be reproduced with acknowledgement to IHDP. Please send a copy of any reproduced material to the IHDP Secretariat.

CONCLUSIONS

➤

DESIGN & LAYOUT: Serap Lannert, Bonn, Germany; info@slannert.de

measured at stations installed in and around the city, are discussed below.

Using hourly data of the ambient temperature collected, simulations of the cooling load of the reference building were performed for August 1996.

All other operational data, like internal gains, were selected to correspond exactly to the measured conditions.

Calculations were performed for three temperature bases, i.e. 26, 27 and 28o C. The values were expressed in kWh per square meter and month. An indicative spatial variation of the cooling load of the reference building for a 26o C set point temperature is given in Fig. 2. It shows that the cooling load at the city centre is about twice that of the surrounding Athens region. For a set point temperature of 26o C, the calculated maximum and minimum cooling load was close to 14.2 and 7.4 kWh per square meter. The corresponding maximum values for 27 and 28o C set points amounted to 12.9 and 11.5 kWh per square meter, while the minimum values were 6.1 and 5.1 kWh per square meter respectively.

The maximum cooling load was always compared to the very central area of Athens and especially to a station close to a road with high traffic. For the south-eastern Athens region, a residential area with an average population density and close to the Hemetus forest, we calculated minimum values.

Much higher cooling loads were calculated for the Western Athens region. This area is characterised by high-density plots, lack of green spaces, industrial activity and higher traffic than the Eastern Athens region.

M ATTHAIOS S ANTAMOURIS is a researcher at the Section of Applied Physics, Department of Physics of the University of Athens, Greece; he was a lecturer at the IHDW 2002; msantam@cc.uoa.gr; www.uoa.gr

young scientist research THE SUBURBS OF PRAGUE

A HUMAN FACE FOR PRAGUE’S SUBURBS? A research project at Charles University evaluates human and biophysical dimensions of Prague’s suburbanisation and its consequences | BY LUCIE K UPKOVÁ , PARTICIPANT

IN THE I NTERNATIONAL

H UMAN

D IMENSIONS WORKSHOP 2002

Photos: L. Kupková

➤

tion, some of the building companies ➤ Since the beginning of the economic tranwent bankrupt, which left many houssition in the Czech Republic in the early 1990s, es unfinished in some areas. People problems of suburban land use and change here are forced to live in an environhave become increasingly evident. Before the ment of unfinished brick structures »Velvet Revolution« in 1989, cities expanded that slowly deteriorate with weather to the surrounding land in a very limited fashand time. As people commute on a ion, due to many factors that characterised the daily basis between the satellite socialist system. As there was no market econFig. 1a. The development of towns and the city centre, this causes omy, a market for land and private property built-up areas 1990-2000 traffic jams, requires new roads and did not exist; efforts to reduce regional differ(year 1990 = 100%) adds to the problem of landscape ences were high and laws for land preservafragmentation. An adequate traffic tion were strict. After 1989, the transition to a system has not yet been designed. At market economy increased activities in the pripresent, the construction of a perimeter vate property and residential land markets, in highway in the Northwestern part particular in commercial, industrial and infraof Prague is under discussion. At structural use of land. the border of the city, huge shopBased on first results of a project by the ping centres have been set up and Charles University on »Changes in the landscape represent another feature of subin Prague’s suburban area in the periods before urbanisation that copies US and and during transformation«, and supported by West-European lifestyle. For many the Czech Grant Agency, we make some preliminary observations about suburbanisation in Fig. 1b. Population development people spending time on the weekend in these shopping centres has Prague. Fig. 1a shows the development of built1991-1999 (year 1991 = 100%) become a new leisure activity. up areas during the period 1990-2000 which A few examples of the old and increased in the majority of cadastres. new »face« of Prague’s suburbs were discussed here. We are Interestingly, we found a few cadastres in the suburbs of still at the beginning of a new period of suburbanisation and Prague, where built-up areas decreased by more than 5 pershould be able to learn from the experience of other major cent. Other analyses based on satellite data show that there cities, avoid their mistakes in urban development and give were no intensive pressures on the landscape (such as a fragsuburbanisation a »human face«. mentation or forest decline) in the entire study area during Acknowledgement: This contribution is an output of the above mentioned period. The increase of built-up areas Research Project No. 205/02/P093 of the Czech Grant corresponds with an increase in population (compare Fig.1a Agency and of Research Project No. VZ 23-313007 of the and 1b). In some parts, residential suburbanisation prevailed.

Ministry of Education of the Czech Republic.

Spatial relationships will be examined in the next stages of the project and will be based on methods of spatial statistics.

LUCIE K UPKOVÁ is a Research Assistant at the GIS A very simple data source, i.e. photos, allows us to illustrate some specific features of housing. During the socialist Laboratory, Institute for Environmental Studies, Faculty of period, extensive blocks of »panel flats« were built, with no Science, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic; privacy and appropriate services for their inhabitants, with lkupkova@natur.cuni.cz; www.natur.cuni.cz/ no green areas around them or playgrounds for children (Fig. 2). However, is it any better to build satellite towns such as shown in Fig. 3? These are new residential areas in villages near the capital, built after 1989 on green meadows – again without appropriate services. Their aesthetic value is controversial. Like in blocks of flats, the inhabitants do not Fig. 2 and 3. Footprints of socialism (left), footprints of a new capitalism (right) – block of have enough privacy. In addi-

panel houses versus satellite towns. What is better/worse?

IHDP NEWSLETTER 3/2002 | 13

young scientist research A MEXICAN CASE STUDY

RISK AND VULNERABILITY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES A case study of Morelia City, Mexico, evaluates risk and vulnerability | BY E RNA L ÓPEZ G RANADOS , PARTICIPANT

IN THE I NTERNATIONAL

H UMAN D IMENSIONS WORKSHOP 2002, AND G ERARDO B OCCO

tered in 1975; in 1995, the number was 509 (837,775 inhabitants). The study area is characterised by a population migration to the capital of the state, the capital of the country and to the USA. Rain-fed fields are increasingly abandoned and are now covered by shrub land or forests.

According to census data, urban settlements are those with over 2,500 inhabitants; 25 such settlements exist in the Cuitzeo watershed. In 1975 urban settlements occupied an area of 3,141 ha, increasing to 10,939 ha by 2000. At the same time, population density decreased in these urban settlements. In two cities, the population has declined due to emigration, but the cities continue growing in area. People working outside the country send money to their families in the region to build houses that they will occupy when returning to Mexico.

There are other urban problems in the watershed. So far, a vulnerability analysis has not been undertaken. During my participation in the IHDW, I learned about the application criteria to carry out a risk and vulnerability analysis (floods, earthquakes, landslides) in urban settlements. Remote sensing and GIS technology are useful to delineate land cover, land use, geo-forms, rocks and soils and help to model risk scenarios and vulnerability of the society.

The main urban area in the watershed is Morelia, a city that expanded from 709 ha in 1960 to 3,368 ha in 1990.

Other urban settlements were incorporated into Morelia, a process very common to fast growing urban settlements that lack adequate planning. Forty-six percent of the urban area is now located on the alluvial plain, occupying former agricultural land of prime quality. Urbanisation expanded also to slopes surrounding the city, some of them affected by landslides and rock-fall. This has increased the vulnerability to geologic risks, a Morelia City | Vulnerability fact that is not easily accepted by local authorities. Therefore it is necessary to carry out an Hydrometerological processes Geomorphological processes interdisciplinary study to identify the natural risks and vulnerability of each human settlement Floods Landslides Droughts in the basin. This study must also involve decision-makers to influence urban planning in this Hydrometerological area. data and geomorpho-

Intensive use of natural resources calls for increasingly detailed inventories of its components and an investigation of the changes that took place in the past. This is particularly important in areas undergoing fast, unplanned changes, such as urban settlements in developing countries. Landcover and land-use (LCLU) change analysis and projection provide a tool to assess ecosystem change and its environmental implications at various temporal and spatial scales.

Despite their relevance, quantitative data describing where, when and how change occurs are incomplete or inexact.

Thus, research on this subject is important in order to understand patterns of LCLU change as well as their social and environmental implications at different spatial and temporal scales.

We have researched LCLU change patterns in the watershed of Cuitzeo, the second largest lake in Mexico, covering an area of ca. 4,000 km2 and located in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. The dominant climate is temperate with seasonal rainfall in summer and an average temperature of 15° C. The average annual precipitation is around 1,000 mm.

Soils and landforms are of Quaternary volcanic origin.

To quantify patterns of LCLU change, land-cover was interpreted on black and white panchromatic aerial photography. The approximate scale was 1:50,000 for 1975 (161 images) and 1:37,000 for 2000 (283 images). In addition, 1:50,000 basic and thematic cartography was used to describe relevant physical characteristics of the study area.

The analysis of LCLU changes specifically considered population and human settlement growth, which increased significantly. 385 localities (380,787 inhabitants) were regis➤

Seismic activity

logical and land cover / use information

Social data

Population Density Margination

➤

Geological and geomorphological information

Biophysical data and information

Earthquakes Fractures Faults

Geographic Information System

Fig. 1. A vulnerability and risk analysis of Morelia City, Mexico.

14 | IHDP NEWSLETTER 3/2002

➤

Vulnerability Analysis and modelling

E RNA L ÓPEZ G RANADOS is a PhD candidate at the Instituto de Ecología, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Campus Morelia, Michoacán, México; erna@oikos.unam.mx; http://geoecologia.oikos.unam.mx G ERARDO B OCCO is a researcher at the Instituto de Ecología, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Campus Morelia, Michoacán, and with the National Institute for Ecology, Mexico gbocco@oikos.unam.mx

young scientist research

DESERT SET TLEMENTS IN EGYPT

UNSUSTAINABLE DESERT SETTLEMENTS IN EGYPT Product, Process and Avenues for Future Research | BY A BOUL - FETOUH S AAD S HALABY, PARTICIPANT

IN THE

I NTERNATIONAL H UMAN D IMENSIONS WORKSHOP 2002 ➤ This article aims to locate my current studies within the context of the IHDW 2002. It first discusses the current urban product of Egyptian desert settlements and its negative impact on humans and the environment. Then, it presents a conceptual framework for the process behind the development of this product and briefly highlights my current research focus. Finally, it explores potential avenues for future research inspired by the Workshop.

THE URBAN PRODUCT

It is widely agreed that the spatial strategies adopted by the Egyptian government in recently developed new desert settlements are not environmentally sustainable (1). The new settlements have detached, spread-out housing blocks that heat up under intensive solar radiation or consume excessive quantities of energy for cooling. They have wide grid networks of streets that serve as good channels for hot dusty winds. They require high use of cars that potentially emit an excessive amount of pollutants and heat. They impact on a lot of land and disturb the fragile ecosystem.

These modern settlements ignore the design principles of Egypt’s traditional settlements, developed over many centuries.

These traditional settlements have low-rise buildings with small inner courtyards that provide good ambient conditions.

They have narrow winding streets that minimise heat gain and loss and escape the hot sand-laden winds. They are compact and small in size, integrate under- with above- ground spaces, and hence have a minimal impact on the environment. Based on these traditional desert settlements, I have developed a model of environmentally adaptive urban design principles towards establishing sustainable desert settlements (2).

THE PROCESS

complex process. This is a major task; in my current research only a first step towards this goal is attempted by focusing on ‘planning education’ as one force that contributes to the current urban practices.

FUTURE RESEARCH

Inspired by the many ideas discussed at the IHDW, potential avenues for future research on the product level include (i) quantifying the negative impact of the current built environment through studying the Heat Island Effect in one of the new desert settlements, and associated health hazards and environmental problems; (ii) quantifying the positive role of traditional built environments in reducing negative environmental impacts; and (iii) investigating how vegetation and water elements could be used efficiently in a desert environment with limited resources.

On the process level, research proposals include (i) monitoring the change from the traditional development process to the current one, and examining how different forces contribute to this change over time; (ii) investigating on a global/national scale the contribution of the governance system to the current built environment, as one important force in the Egyptian context; and (iii) investigating how the environment is perceived, or socially constructed, by the government, professionals and other stakeholders. ➤

R EFERENCES to this article are included on the IHDP website at www.ihdp.org/update0302/references.htm ➤

Ignoring these principles is not primarily a technical problem. Securing a better urban product depends upon a critical examination of the urban development process (3), defined as the decision-making process and mechanisms that lead to the production of the urban form. When comparing contemporary and traditional development processes a significant difference was found. While the contemporary process is top-down with virtually no role for residents and a rigid set of Western regulations, the traditional process was bottom-up with minimal state intervention and a proscriptive rather than prescriptive code of laws (i.e. a code which only states what not to do).

An answer to why the current urban development process and product have taken this shape lies in the political, social, cultural, economic, environmental and technological forces.

These forces, which operate at different scales, shape a complex societal process that stands behind the current urban practices. In order to understand the current urban product, we have to develop an understanding of the nature of this

Fig. 1. Simplified diagram: how different societal forces shape the urban product

A BOUL -F ETOUH S AAD S HALABY is a Teaching Assistant at the Faculty of Urban and Regional Planning, Cairo University, Egypt (on leave) and a PhD student at the Department of City and Regional Planning, Cardiff University in Wales, UK. aboulfetouh@hotmail.com; www.cardiff.ac.uk

IHDP NEWSLETTER 3/2002 | 15

young scientist research

ECO-C APITAL AND URBANISATION

ECO-CAPITAL AND ITS SERVICES IN URBANISATION A brief introduction to theory, methods and progress in China | BY DAN H U, PARTICIPANT

IN THE

I NTERNATIONAL H UMAN D IMENSIONS WORKSHOP 2002 China is undergoing a period of rapid urbanisation and industrialisation. The number of cities increased from 622 in 1994 to 667 in 1999. In 1994, ten cities had a population of more than 2 million; by 1999 the number was 13. China’s rate of urbanisation grew from 26.21 percent in 1989 to 30.89 percent in 1999. The complex interactions between urbanisation and ecosystems have become a major concern for researchers of different disciplines, decision-makers and the public. Our recent research has therefore focused on finding scientific solutions for a sustainable urbanisation management in China.

➤

THEORETICAL DEVELOPMENT

Taoism, the traditional holistic Chinese philosophy, recognizes that humans and nature interact with each other as one entity. With this in mind, we derived fifteen ecological principles of human-nature interactions including principles of selectability, complementarity, duality, substitutability, adaptation and innovation, symmetry and fluctuation, and cost-benefits (effectiveness), etc. Based on the fundamentals of ecological economics and these principles, we developed an integrated concept of ecosystems capital or eco-capital, which serves as a starting point for establishing a theoretical framework of integrating eco-capital into urbanisation (see Fig.1, included in the Web version of Update). The concept of eco-capital (see Box) integrates human-related and natural capital that produces eco-products or services to sustain the survival and development of humans and ecosystems. Complicated interactions among eco-capital, natural capital, human capital and man-made (including financial) capital drive urbanisation, industrialisation and civilisation. Our research focused on the ecological transformation of urbanisation, industrialisation and civilisation by building a management mechanism for a sustainable ecological capital cycle between cities and ecosystems. This requires understanding the temporary and spatial processes of urban development, exploring the stressresponse mechanisms between urbanisation and eco-capital, and evaluating the depreciation, appreciation and appropriation of eco-capital at different levels of urbanisation.

RESEARCH PROGRESS

So far, research has been completed on (1) stresses of urbanisation on eco-capital and its effects and responses, including ecological effects of urban land use and regional climate impacts of urbanisation in YRDR; ecological impacts of urbanisation on water resources, water environment and their ecological responses in TLBR; climate impact simulation analyses of urban energy consumption in YRDR; changes in the ecological landscape driven by urbanisation in Shanghai and its surrounding areas; and environmental impacts and human responses of urbanisation and industrialisation in Jiangyin; (2) an eco-capital value measure method and appropriation/assessment analysis, including a solar space value method for measuring eco-capital; an eco-services value measure method; an analysis of eco-capital appropriation by urbanisation in TLBR; an assessment of water ecosystem services of urbanisation in Yangzhou; and an ecoservices analysis for urbanisation in Shanghai and Yangzhou; (3) eco-capital integrated management of urbanisation, including eco-planning of sustainable urbanisation in the Hangzhou-Jiaxing-Huzhou-Shaoxing region and eco-planning of sustainable urbanisation in Yangzhou.

Future research will focus on spatial pattern and dynamics of wetland eco-capital and its services, using 3S techniques. Methods for eco-capital value measure and appropriation analysis will be improved and developed, and institutional and cultural dimensions of sustainable eco-capital management will be studied.

R EFERENCES to this article and Fig. 1 are included on the IHDP website at www.ihdp.org/update0302/references.htm ➤

16 | IHDP NEWSLETTER 3/2002

Our study1 was implemented in the Yangtze River Delta Region (YRDR), the Taihu Lake Basin Region (TLBR) and in Yangzhou city in East China, rich in wetland eco-capital stock and one of the highly urbanised areas in the country.

An integrated methodology was developed, using a method model that included driving forces, stress, vulnerability, sensitivity, state, effects, uncertainty and responses. The research focused on developing a meta-analysis including an Integrated Temporary Analysis (ITA) with a life cycle of the past, present and future, a 3S-based Integrated Spatial Analysis (ISA) with different spatial scales, an Integrated Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis (IQA) and an Integrated Biophysical and Currency Value Analysis (IVA).

➤

Eco-capital refers to tangible and intangible ecosystem states, forms (structure/pattern) and functioning/processes produced by human- or biota-environment interactions within and/or among ecosystems, which serve as inputs for producing other joint ecosystem products or services.

Examples of eco-capital are hydro-, soil, atmospheric, landscape and agricultural ecosystems and other human-involved or -dominated ecosystems. We define strong eco-capital with humans as a component and weak eco-capital without humans but with biota as a component. Social, cultural and economic capital are usually viewed as constituent elements of eco-capital, depending on the contexts in which the concept is seen.

Eco-assets are the tangible and intangible ecosystem states, forms (structure/pattern) and functioning/processes produced by human or biota-environment interactions within and/or among ecosystems, which have the potential for producing types of ecosystem utility or benefits and usually include human and non-human ecosystems.

Ecosystems or eco-services are the conditions and processes through which natural ecosystems, and the species that make them up, sustain and fulfill human life (4,1)

METHODOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT

DAN HU is an Associate Professor at the Research Center for Eco-environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, P.R.China; hudan@mail.rcees.ac.cn; www.cas.ac.cn 1

The National Foundation of Natural Sciences of China supported the research (grant numbers 40171042 and 3993004).

urbanisation IHDW 2002

INTERNATIONAL HUMAN DIMENSIONS WORKSHOP 2002 Urbanisation and the transition to sustainability | BY M AARIT T HIEM

AND

VALERIE S CHULZ

➤

IHDP NEWSLETTER 3/2002 | 17

Photo: M. Thiem

Photo: D. Meyer Wefering

Earth Science Infor➤ From 2-15 June 2002, mation Network IHDP and START (CIESIN) and the (Global Change SysTem Center for Environfor Analysis, Research mental Systems and Training) hosted the Research of the Unithird bi-annual Interversity of Kassel, national Human Germany, were present Dimensions Workshop during the workshop.

(IHDW) for young sciAfter an introduction entists in Bonn. Thirtyto Geographic Infortwo young scholars from mation Systems (GIS) 20 countries in Africa, including ArcView® Asia, Latin America, software, they helped and, for the first time, IHDW 2002: participants, lecturers and organisers the participants to Eastern Europe and solve individual data Russia were selected problems and computer questions. Lively discussions durfrom over 160 applicants to come to Bonn and explore the ing the breaks, in the evenings and sometimes even at workshop theme: »Urbanisation and the Transition to night, when participants and lecturers worked together in Sustainability«. the computer room, proved the success of this organisaThe main objective of the workshop was to provide a tional framework. comprehensive and integrated perspective on issues related An important result of the workshop is a strong network to Global Environmental Change (GEC) and urban areas. established between young and senior scholars working in The workshop encouraged speakers and participants from the field of GEC and urbanisation. In the meantime, a list different scientific backgrounds to develop an interdiscipliserver has been installed to facilitate communication within nary approach to the workshop theme. Different complethe group. IHDP will produce a hard copy report of the mentary components, such as lectures, expert panels and workshop, which will highlight the case studies. Copies will individual projects formed the basis for the organisational be available from Maarit structure of the workshop. The lectures and panels given by Thiem or at the IHDP webwell-known scholars in the field exposed the participants to site in electronic form. A a wide range of topics reflecting the complex and dynamic website with information on range of societal and environmental interactions that take the workshop’s agenda, parplace in cities, from the local to the global level: natural and ticipants and relevant instisocial dimensions of GEC, regional processes of urbanisatutions can be found at tion, urban processes, social shaping of urban space, goverwww.ihdw2002.de. nance, environmental problems, urban climate, vulnerabiliIHDP would like to thank ty, and water.

Roberto Sanchez-Rodriguez, Prior to the workshop the participants had been asked to J. Leitmann (left), lecturer, and who was the scientific leader select an individual case study from their country on a topic of the workshop. His con- Roberto Sanchez-Rodriguez (right), related to the »Human Dimensions of GEC in Cities« and cepts, experience and ideas scientific leader of the IHDW 2002. bring their own sets of empirical data to Bonn. During the helped to set up and carry workshop, the young scholars were able to apply the inforout a very successful endeavour. His efforts before and durmation and knowledge gathered to their individual projects. ing the workshop were invaluable.

The last two days were dedicated to presentations by particWe gratefully acknowledge the sponsors of the workshop: ipants. Their talks demonstrated a clear step towards an inteAsia-Pacific Network (APN), German Research Foundation grated perspective on human dimensions of GEC, and many (DFG), Inter-American Institute for Global Change participants expressed a strong desire to expand their Research (IAI), START and the US National Science research to include new dimensions.

Foundation.

The successful outcome was due to a framework that emphasised communication and interaction amongst lecM AARIT T HIEM , International Science Project Co-ordinaturers and participants. All invited lecturers were asked to allow for extra time for discussions and interaction. tor, and VALERIE S CHULZ , Research Assistant, organised the Lecturers advised and commented on the participants’ IHDW 2002 on behalf of the IHDP Secretariat. individual case studies. In addition, two data specialists thiem.ihdp@uni-bonn.de; schulz.ihdp@uni-bonn.de; from the Columbia University’s Center for International www.idhw2002.de

core projects IDGEC

IDGEC SSC CONVENES IN BALI BY

S YMA A LEXI E BBIN

From June 1-3, 2002, the IDGEC Scientific Steering Committee (SSC) met for the fourth time since the inception of the project – this time in Bali, Indonesia. Amid the lush plantings of the Hotel Putri Bali and just a few hundred feet away from the Bali International Convention Center, where the WSSD PrepCom was holding its final meeting, the SSC held lively discussions, charting the course for the implementation of the IDGEC project.

for APN funding for a study comparing tropical and boreal forest governance.

PEEZ held its second workshop in Bali immediately following the IDGEC SSC meeting.

Alf Håkon Hoel has received a research grant from the Norwegian Research Council that will fund a third PEEZ workshop in September at the University of Tromsø. IDGEC Research Fellow Frank Alcock authored a successful grant proposal to Duke University that will facilitate a fourth PEEZ workshop in the spring of 2003 at Duke University.

Photos: E. Dyck

➤

18 | IHDP NEWSLETTER 3/2002

Two CMRA activities are in progress: an agent-based model of compliance and a scenario-based model of emissions trading in the 21st century. With the development of the joint IGBP/IHDP/ WCRP Global Carbon Project Science Plan and Implementation Strategy, it was decided that future research efforts of the IDGEC CMRA should directly contribute to this endeavor.

The SSC identified the development of partnerships with other programs and organizations and the IDGEC network as high priorities. The SSC endorsed the IDGEC Network Initiative, which was the focus of a story in a previous newsletter. It also endorsed the introduction of the IDGEC Policy Links Publication Series and a web-conferencing pilot project. The members of the SSC decided to continue and formalize the IDGEC Research Fellows Program.

Guidelines for prospective fellows are currently being drawn up. IDGEC’s presentation and publication strategies were also discussed, identifying fora where relevant research should be presented. Finally, the SSC emphasized the need for IDGEC research to be both policy-relevant and accessible. ➤

The SSC welcomed several new members and bid goodbye to several old friends who had served on the SSC for the past three years. Elena Andreeva (Russia), Peter Sands (Germany), Angela Cropper (Trinidad and Tobago), and Yoshiki Yamagata (Japan) left the SSC. New members included Taishi Sugiyama (Japan), Jyrki Luukannen (Finland), and Arild Underdal (Norway). Joining the SSC meeting were Syma Ebbin (IPO Executive Officer), Antonio Contreras, (IDGEC Research Fellow, Philippines), Sylvia Karlsson (IHDP Secretariat), Ooi Giok Lin (Singapore), and Robert Wasson (IGBP Scientific Committee).

IDGEC’s science agenda is implemented through flagship activities focused on the political economy of forestry (PEF), carbon management (CMRA) and the performance of the exclusive economic zones (PEEZ), as well as several crosscutting themes. Each of the three flagship activities has published a scoping report and made the transition from planning to active research. At this time, however, it is too soon to synthesize findings from the project.

Funded by the Asia Pacific Network (APN), the PEF team has just completed a series of case studies on the political economy of forests in Southeast Asian countries. A report summarizing the study’s findings will be completed this summer. The team is currently beginning a second APN funded project focused on the implications of sustainable livelihoods and biodiversity in Southeast Asia on resilience and risk. The PEF team is also developing another proposal

S YMA A LEXI E BBIN is Executive Officer, International Project Office of the IHDP Project on Institutional Dimensions of Global Environmental Change (IDGEC), Dartmouth College, Hanover, USA; syma.ebbin@dartmouth.edu; www.dartmouth.edu/~idgec

national committees INDIA

AN INDIAN EXPERIENCE Towards an integrative approach to global change research | BY P.S. R AMAKRISHNAN ➤ A major issue discussed within both the IHDP and the IGBP research communities is a common methodological approach for integrating the ecological and the social processes at varied scalar dimensions, from plot level to landscape level analysis, and final upgrading to regional scale. In this context the following discussion on India’s contributions to human dimension-related global change research becomes significant.

Human dimension-related global change research was started in India in the early 1970s. An initiative of over 60 scientists and 10 community participants aimed at finding a sustainable management for shifting agriculture areas, using a socio-ecological systems approach in studies on NorthEastern India (1). During the early 1980s, Indian researchers were involved in the international Tropical Soil Biology and Fertility (TSBF) programme of the International Union of Biological Sciences and UNESCO, using a farming system approach for sustainable agriculture (2). These efforts were restricted to socio-ecologically complex mountain systems.

Recently, this research was extended to the plains of India, applying a socio-ecological systems approach to analyse land-use dynamics.

A SOCIO-ECOLOGICAL APPROACH

POLICY DIMENSIONS OF RESEARCH

Operating within a socio-ecological framework, we used print and audio-visual media to reach out to policy planners and developmental agencies. The two contrasting socio-ecological situations that demand different strategies were: (a) redeveloping traditional land use systems to conserve natural and human-managed biodiversity, and (b) building buffering mechanisms to counter the adverse effects of highly intensive land-use management practices.

An example of strategy (a) is the Nagaland experiment in North-Eastern India. It involved 1200 village communities, created institutions based on traditional values, and built upon traditional knowledge. Due to our research efforts (4), it resulted in a redevelopment of shifting agriculture systems in the region, based on a traditional value system.

Understanding soil biological processes, manipulating them through appropriate soil organic residue management, and using earthworms as indicators for soil fertility improved the buffering capacity of the soil. This led to a 50% reduction in the use of inorganic fertilizers in the tea garden systems of southern India and was patented as part of the TSBF initiative (6).

During the past decades we have tried to build the capability to arrive at a methodological approach (see Fig. 1) and effectively link ecological with social processes in the area of landscape ecology and its sustainable management. This was undertaken with community participation in the context of ‘global change’. These efforts were able to cut across socioecological systems by designing adaptive landscape management strategies. The capacity building effort spread over 30 years and involved more than 150 young scientists in this research field. ➤

REFERENCES to this article and Fig. 1 are included on the IHDP website at www.ihdp.org/update0302/references.htm ➤

We used an integrated socio-ecological system perspective to examine the dynamics of sustainability issues (Fig. 1) and linked ‘Traditional Ecological Knowledge’ (TEK) with ‘Formal Knowledge’ to identify suitable technologies for a sustainable management of natural resources. A wide variety of traditional agro-ecosystems, ranging from casually managed shifting agriculture to sedentary systems, and varied levels of ecological and economic efficiencies, linked to forest ecosystems with energy and resource flows between the two, required the building of bridges between natural and human-managed ecosystem functions. Integrated forest and agricultural system management practices strengthened soil biological processes.

Based on a historical analysis of the factors responsible for land degradation, the objective was to design agroecosystem models by combining sustainability with higher production levels. This was achieved by linking the traditional and the formal knowledge systems within a social context (1,3). For less-developed societies, it was necessary to gradually build upon TEK using an incremental pathway. For societies ready to accept more developed agro-ecosystem models, a mix of traditional and formal knowledge bases was used to fit the model into the ecological contours of the landscape – the contour pathway. For modern agriculture, the buffering mechanisms in the landscape were strengthened to avert land degradation. All three models were able to coexist in a landscape, the proportion being determined by socioecological conditions.

A related concern was forest management, particularly where degradation was most rampant and managing forest

biodiversity was critical for the overall sustainability of the landscape (4). Recognizing the linkage between socially selected and ecologically significant keystones (5) enabled us to link resource management efforts with local communities’ value systems. This ensured local participation in biodiversity conservation and met the needs for a sustainable livelihood. Many species were identified from diverse socio-ecological systems; often the same sets of species were found in different situations. Silviculture was linked to ecological, social, economic and cultural dimensions of forest ecosystem management.

P.S. R AMAKRISHNAN is a Professor at the School of Environmental Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India; he is a member of the IHDP Scientific Committee and Chair of the Indian National Human Dimensions Committee; psr@mail.jnu.ac.in IHDP NEWSLETTER 3/2002 | 19

in brief

ESSP MEDIA ROUNDTABLE

SURVIVING THE THIRD MILLENNIUM International Science Roundtable for the Media – Joint Event of ICSU, IGBP, IHDP, WCRP, DIVERSITAS, and START – 4 June 2002, Bali, Indonesia | BY E LISABETH DYCK

From left: S. Arai (Secretary General, IGES), S. Dhakal, A. Morishima (Chair of the Board, IGES), G. Glaser

M.Wheeler is interviewed by an Indonesian TV station

Jin Eong Ong (left) and W. Eckert of Germany’s SWR/ARD radio

R.J. Wasson (left) talking to Reuters’ Dean Yates

➤

Photos: E. Dyck

Jakarta’s radio station 68H interviews D. Murdiyarso

➤ Urbanisation, deforestation, pollution, climate change ... sustainable development at all scales represents perhaps the most daunting challenge that humanity has ever faced. How can we live sustainably on our planet? Science holds many of the answers. Recent research is providing crucial tools for understanding the ‘earth system’, allowing improved impact assessment, risk prediction, and development of sustainable technologies.

PrepCom4 in Bali (27 May-7 June 2002) was the last stop on the road to the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) in Johannesburg. The multidisciplinary nature of global sustainability made PrepCom4 an excellent opportunity to run a collaborative media campaign by the GEC programmes, as part of the contribution of the International Council of Science (ICSU) to the WSSD. To enhance their co-operation, the GEC programmes recently formed the »Earth System Science Partnership« (ESSP) (see Interview with Jill Jäger, p. 23).

A team of communicators of the ESSP organised an »International Science Roundtable for the Media: Surviving the Third Millennium«, held during PrepCom4 in Bali. ICSU, a sponsor of the GEC programmes, provided funding for the event. The roundtable aimed at highlighting the crucial role science can and should play in sustainable development, using timely results from the ESSP community.

A panel of international experts gave brief insights into their areas of expertise to an audience of media representatives, scientists, and delegates to the WSSD. All stories had a SE Asian angle, but were also of global relevance.

Science and Technology as a Foundation for Sustainable Development was addressed by Gisbert Glaser (ICSU’s Senior Advisor on Science for Sustainable Development). He emphasised the importance of scientific knowledge and appropriate technologies in resolving the economic, social and environmental problems that make current development paths unsustainable, and stressed ICSU’s role in the WSSD process.

How sustainable is the development of mega-cities in Asia? This was discussed by Shobhakar Dhakal (IHDP and Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), Japan), based on an international, IHDP-IT supported study that investigates how ‘Industrial Transformation’ in Asian megacities impacts on the environment (see article p. 8).

When the monsoon and El Nino clash over SE Asia, the Madden-Julian Oscillations (MJOs) may be a major cause of floods and cyclones in SE Asia and Australia. Matthew Wheeler (WCRP and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre) presented a new technique that promises to give advance warning of such events.

The destruction of mangrove forests in SE Asia, primarily due to dig ponds for shrimp aquaculture and for wood chips for the rayon industry, is releasing as much CO2 into the atmosphere each year as 3 million cars. Jin Eong Ong (IGBP and the University of Sains, Malaysia) disclosed the hidden costs of mangrove destruction and showed ways to a sustainable forestry.

Will tropical forests last? Daniel Murdiyarso (START and the Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia) painted a dim picture of deforestation in SE Asia, due to unsustainable forest management and illegal logging practices. Science could help in several ways, such as bridging the information gap by policy-relevant research and developing a sustainable forest management that benefits the indigenous people.

Overfishing in Asia has reduced the largest and most commercially preferred marine species to 5 % of their 1930s abundance. Carmen Ablan (DIVERSITAS and the World Fish Center, Malaysia) explained how a better understanding of the genetic diversity of fish populations might hold the key to managing marine fish stocks and conserving biodiversity.

In a concluding talk, Robert J. Wasson (IGBP and the Australian National University) gave the »Big Picture of Sustainability«, summing up the various issues and explaining how science and the knowledge it creates could help to embark on a path towards sustainable development.

The research presented in Bali was covered in reports by Indonesian and international print and electronic media and news agencies. For more information on the International Science Roundtable for the Media go to www.igbp.kva.se/prepcom4/ and www.ihdp.org (What’s New – Press Releases).

E LISABETH DYCK is Information Officer at the IHDP Secretariat; dyck.ihdp@uni-bonn.de

20 | IHDP NEWSLETTER 3/2002

in brief / calendar NEWS / MEETINGS

IN BRIEF ➤➤➤

IHDP SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEE

IHDP SC CHAIR. Coleen Heather Vogel (South Africa) has been appointed as Chair of the IHDP Scientific Committee (SC) for a term of 3 years, effective 1 July 2002.

She is a Professor at the Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa. Previously, Coleen was a member of the Scientific Steering Committee of the IHDP/IGBP Project on Land-Use and Land-Cover Change (LUCC).

CALENDAR ➤➤➤

IHDP-IT Second Workshop for Carbon Flows Between Eastern and Western Europe (CFEWE) Organised by the Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and the IHDP-IT Project, in association with CFEWE partners; Contact: Anna.J.Wieczorek@ivm.vu.nl www.vu.nl/ivm/research/ihdp-it/implementation/enma.htm ➤➤➤

IHDP SC VICE-CHAIR. M.A. Mohamed Salih (Sudan/The Netherlands), a member of the SC, has been appointed as Vice-Chair of the IHDP Scientific Committee.

Mohamed is a Professor of Politics of Development at the Institute of Social Studies in The Hague, and the Department of Political Science, University of Leiden, The Netherlands.

NEW IHDP SC MEMBERS. We also welcome three new members on the Scientific Committee: Tatiana Kluvankova-Oravska (Slovak Republic), an economist at the Institute for Forecasting of the Slovak Academy of Sciences, Bratislava; Roberto Sanchez-Rodriguez (Mexico), a geographer at the Department of Environmental Studies, University of California, Santa Cruz, USA; Paul L.G. Vlek (The Netherlands), Director for Ecology and Resource Management at the Center for Development Research (ZEF) in Bonn.

The SC guides IHDP’s work and research activities. All appointments, made by IHDP’s sponsoring organisations, the International Council for Science (ICSU) and the International Social Science Council (ISSC), are effective as of 1 July 2002.

➤➤➤

NEWS FROM GECHS

The International Project Office (IPO) of the IHDP Project on Global Environmental Change and Human Security (GECHS) has been moved to Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada. Its new home is within the University’s Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, where Mike Brklacich, Chair of the GECHS Scientific Steering Committee, is located.

Maureen Woodrow has been hired as new Executive Officer of the GECHS IPO. She has a PhD in sociology and most recently was a coordinator of research initiatives with the Institute of the Environment at the University of Ottawa, working with several community-based environmental projects. Maureen brings considerable research and project management experience to the GECHS team. However, a GECHS presence will remain at the University of Victoria, with Ann Zurbrigg continuing to work part-time until the end of November; also, the production of the AVISO Bulletin will remain in Victoria.

23-24 September – Amsterdam, The Netherlands

6-7 December – Berlin, Germany

2002 Berlin Conference on the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change: »Knowledge for the Sustainability Transition: The Challenge for Social Science« endorsed by IHDP-IDGEC and IHDP-IT Annual Convention of the Environmental Policy & Global Change Section of the German Political Science Association Contact: berlin-conference@pik-potsdam.de www.environmental-policy.de/ ➤➤➤

9-11 December – Vienna, Austria

International Conference on the Social Sciences and Social Policy in the 21st Century Organized by the International Social Science Council (ISSC) in cooperation with UNESCO; co-sponsored by the Austrian Federal Ministry of Education, Science and Culture and the Austrian Commission for UNESCO; Session organised by IHDP on Human Dimensions on Global Environmental Change Research and the Global Science-Policy Interface (contact: karlsson.ihdp@unibonn.de) Contact: issclak@unesco.org

International Conference on the Urban Dimensions of Environmental Change: Science, Exposures, Policies and Technologies ➤➤➤

3-6 June 2003, Shanghai, P.R. China

This conference, co-sponsored by IHDP, will examine causes, impacts, and responses to environmental change in the world’s major cities and urban areas. Relating to both the science and the management of urban environmental change, topics for the conference will include policy, regulation, technology, impact adaptation, mitigation, and remediation.

Specific environmental changes to be addressed include: ➤ Environmental Contamination ➤ Land Use Change ➤ Local and Global Climate Change The conference is organised by the East China Normal University, Shanghai, and the Montclair State University, New Jersey, USA. Deadline for submission of abstracts: 15 January 2003.

For more information go to www.montclair.edu/globaled/Shanghai

IHDP NEWSLETTER 3/2002 | 21

publications NEW BOOKS

PUBLICATIONS GROWING UP IN AN URBANISING WORLD

Louise Chawla (ed.), Earthscan in association with UNESCO publishing, 2002; 256 pp. cloth ISBN 1853838276 £50.00 paper ISBN 1853838284 £18.95 / £16.11 (online) ➤ In industrialised countries, over half of all children live in urban areas, and the same will be true in the developing world in the near future. Yet, by almost all indicators, cities are failing to meet the needs of young people, prejudicing their opportunities as adults. This volume will be of interest to anyone concerned with how urban environments address the needs of future generations. More information at www.earthscan.co.uk BIODIVERSITY, SUSTAINABILITY AND HUMAN COMMUNITIES: Protecting Beyond the Protected

Tim O`Riordan and Susanne Stoll-Kleemann (eds.), Cambridge University Press, August 2002; cloth ISBN 0 521 81365 4; £ 45.00 paper ISBN 0 521 89052 7; £ 16.95 ➤ Biodiversity is the key indicator of a healthy planet. Losses of biodiversity have become widespread and current rates are catastrophic for species and habitat integrity.

Biodiversity, Sustainability and Human Communities advocates the preservation of the best remaining habitats and the enhancement of new biodiverse habitats to ensure that they cope with human impact, climate change and alien species invasion.

These aims can be achieved by a mix of strict protection, inclusive involvement of local people, and by combining livelihoods and social well being in all future biodiversity management.

More information at www.cambridge.org

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL GOVERNANCE:

Options and Opportunities Daniel C. Esty and Maria H. Ivanova (eds.), Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies, July 2002; ISBN 09707882-2-3 ➤ This volume provides an analysis of various ways to manage our increasing ecological interdependence, lays out options for strengthening global environmental governance, and includes a chapter

by Sylvia Karlsson (IHDP) on »The North-South Knowledge Divide: Consequences for Global Environmental Governance«. The authors urge countries participating in the World Summit on Sustainable Development to seize the opportunity and demonstrate a commitment to action with four concrete initiatives focusing on: (1) global environmental data and information; (2) financing for sustainable development; (3) technology promotion; and (4) exploration of options for strengthening global environmental governance.

Chapter PDFs are available at www.yale.edu/environment/publications/geg/index.html NEW TOOLS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION:

Education, Information, and Voluntary Measures Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change, National Research Council, T. Dietz and P.C. Stern (eds.), Washington: National Academy Press, June 2002; ➤ Many believe that environmental regulation has passed a point of diminishing returns: that the quick fixes have been achieved and the sources of pollution are shifting from large »point sources« to more diffuse sources that are more difficult and expensive to regulate. The political climate has also changed in the United States since the 1970s in ways that provide additional impetus to seek alternatives to regulation.

This book examines the potential of some of these »new tools« that emphasise education, information, and voluntary measures. It can be read on-line or ordered at www.nap.edu.

HUMAN DIMENSIONS OF THE CARBON CYCLE:

Summary of a Workshop Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change, National Research Council, Paul C. Stern, Washington: National Academy Press, May 2002; 41 pp.; ➤ The carbon cycle has become interesting to policy makers because human activities that release carbon-containing GHG are the primary source of the threat of global warming.

In the US, the carbon cycle has become a major element of global change research, although so far this effort has not yet integrated the relevant fields of the social and behavioural sciences. This report summarizes a November 2001 workshop at the National Research Council intended to improve communication between the relevant research communities in the natural and social sciences, leading eventually to an expansion of the carbon cycle programme element in directions that would better integrate the two domains. It can be read on-line or ordered at www.nap.edu 22 | IHDP NEWSLETTER 3/2002

TRADITIONAL ECOLOGICAL KNOWLEDGE FOR MANAGING BIOSPHERE RESERVES IN SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIAN REGION

Ramakrishnan, P.S., Rai, R.K., Katwal, R.P.S. and Mehndiratta, S. (eds.), UNESCO and Oxford & IBH, New Delhi, 2002; 536 pp.

This UNESCO initiative emphasises on the role of Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK) for biosphere management in South and Central Asia, based on a number of case studies including India, Nepal and Bhutan. The volume, co-edited by IHDP-SC member P.S. Ramakrishnan, emphasises the role of understanding and validating TEK at the direct usage level, and more importantly at the intersection of ecological and social processes that impact on ecosystems. The authors call for an integration of TEK into the ‘formal knowledge’ system, which has implications for biosphere reserve management with community participation.

interview

JILL JÄGER

ONWARD AND UPWARD Jill Jäger became the second IHDP Executive Director in April 1999, succeeding Larry Kohler. As her term of directorship comes to a close, UPDATE asked her to share some thoughts about her time at IHDP.

Q: Jill, when you look back, how did IHDP develop during the past years?

The importance of human dimensions research has become increasingly recognised in recent years. It is clear that understanding the role of humans in the Earth System is central to dealing with the issues of global environmental change (GEC) and, more broadly, of sustainable development. The core projects of IHDP have made great strides in the implementation of their research agendas. On this basis it has become possible to increase collaboration with the other international GEC research programmes. At the same time, through the Open Meetings of the human dimensions research community (Japan 1999 and Rio de Janeiro, 2001) we have been able to broaden our research community, increase the involvement of young scholars and get a clearer view of the challenges facing this area of research. The Open Science Meeting in Amsterdam last year was a major milestone in integrating human dimensions research into the broader agenda. Finally, I think we have made significant progress in our capacity-building activities, and this remains a major objective of the programme.

Q: How is the collaboration with the other GEC programmes proceeding?

The central element of collaboration is the Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP), which has been discussed by the Chairs and Directors of the GEC programmes at their annual meetings over the last three years. The ESSP is an informal partnership that emphasises the integration of the work going on within the individual programmes. This integration is taking place in various fora – first and foremost in the joint projects on carbon, food systems and water, but also through START, joint sponsorship of projects, e.g., the IGBP-IHDP joint sponsorship of the LUCC project, the activities of »The Oslo Group«, which has been addressing the methodological challenges of integration and the work of the IGBP GAIM (Global Analysis, Integration and Modelling) project.

Q: What would you consider your greatest challenge? What were the most exciting and successful events?

Q: What was IHDP’s role in this Initiative?

IHDP was the host and co-organiser of one of the ISTS regional workshops held in 2001/2002 to discuss the core science questions, the research strategy and the infrastructural requirements for »Sustainability Science«. IHDP has a lot to offer in terms of experience with integrated, interdisciplinary, »place-based«, solution-driven research.

Q: A final question: what are your own plans for the future?

I have at least two book projects that are begging for completion – a book, co-edited with Alex Farrell, on the design of global environmental assessments and a book for START, co-edited with Greg Knight, on Integrated Regional Assessment. I worked from 1979 until 1994 as a consultant, and I plan to revive »Jäger International« in order to carry my interests forward. My main interests remain in the linkage of knowledge and action, and the »sustainability science« agenda has provided with me with new insights that I wish to pursue. Finally, I suggested »Onward and Upward« as the title of this interview – this is borrowed from a series of articles in the New Yorker entitled »Onward and Upward in the Garden« – IHDP will, I am sure, continue onward and upward, and I will devote more time to my beloved garden. ➤

The greatest challenge is still to secure stable and adequate funding for the programme as a whole. Increasingly, however, this challenge cannot be met alone. The ESSP will need to develop a strategy for funding of our integrated research, going beyond the usual sources of funding, to work with private foundations and potentially even industrial sponsorship. The International Project Offices of the IHDP projects are still chronically underfunded and while the support, in particular from Germany and the USA, has been

essential for the successes of the Secretariat in initiating and coordinating research over the past three years, the Secretariat cannot meet the challenges of implementing a strong science agenda and building essential capacity, without further support from a broader range of donors. I have probably spent about one third of my time on Photo: P. Pommerening this challenge over the past three years.

In terms of exciting and successful events, I have mentioned a few before – the Open Meetings of the human dimensions research community and the Amsterdam Open Science Conference. In addition, the International Human Dimensions Workshops that took place in Bonn in 2000 and 2002 have been truly exciting, inasmuch as we stimulated a network of young scholars from developing countries, and we have benefited a lot from the engagement of many of these colleagues in follow-up activities. For me, the participation in the Initiative on Science and Technology for Sustainability (ISTS) was also an important contribution that IHDP could make to the evolving agenda in this area.

I NTERVIEW

BY

E LISABETH DYCK IHDP NEWSLETTER 3/2002 | 23

addresses

CONTACT ADDRESSES IHDP SECRETARIAT • IHDP Secretariat: Jill Jäger, Executive Director Walter-Flex-Str. 3 53113 Bonn, Germany Phone: +49-228-739050 Fax: +49-228-739054 ihdp@uni-bonn.de www.ihdp.org

IHDP CORE PROJECTS GECHS • Global Environmental Change and Human Security ➤

c/o Maureen Woodrow Executive Officer GECHS International Project Office Dept. of Geography & Environmental Studies, Carleton University 1125 Colonel By Drive Ottawa, ON K1S 5B6, Canada info@gechs.org www.gechs.org

IDGEC • Institutional Dimensions of Global Environmental Change ➤

c/o Syma Ebbin, Executive Officer IDGEC International Project Office 6214 Fairchild, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH 03755, USA syma.ebbin@dartmouth.edu www.dartmouth.edu/~idgec

IT • Industrial Transformation ➤

c/o Anna J. Wieczorek, Executive Officer IT International Project Office Institute of Environmental Studies De Boelelaan 1087 1081 HV Amsterdam The Netherlands Anna.J.Wieczorek@ivm.vu.nl www.vu.nl/ivm/research/ihdp-it/

LUCC • Land-Use and Land-Cover Change ➤

c/o Helmut Geist, Executive Officer LUCC International Project Office University of Louvain Place L. Pasteur 3 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium lucc.ipo@geog.ucl.ac.be www.geo.ucl.ac.be/LUCC

Printed on recycled paper

SUBSCRIPTION ➤ For a free subscription to

this newsletter, write to the

JOINT PROJECTS

• Gilberto C. Gallopin

➤ GECAFS • Global Environmental Change and Food Systems

Economic Commission for Latin America & the Caribbean (ECLAC) Santiago, Chile ggallopin@eclac.cl

c/o John Ingram, Executive Officer GECAFS International Project Office, NERC-Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford OX 10 8BB, UK jsii@ceh.ac.uk www.gecafs.org

GCP • Global Carbon Project ➤

c/o Kathy A. Hibbard, Interim Executive Officer University of New Hampshire Morse Hall, Durham, NH 03824 USA kathyh@eos.sr.unh.edu http://gaim.sr.unh.edu/cjp/

Water • Water Joint Project ➤

c/o Sylvia Karlsson IHDP Liaison Officer IHDP Secretariat, Bonn, Germany karlsson.ihdp@uni-bonn.de

IHDP SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEE (SC) Chair • Coleen Heather Vogel ➤

Dept. of Geography & Env. Studies University of Witwatersrand Johannesburg, South Africa 017chv@cosmos.wits.ac.za

Vice Chair • M.A. Mohamed Salih ➤

Institute of Social Studies The Hague, The Netherlands salih@iss.nl

Past-Chairs • Eckart Ehlers ➤

Institutes of Geography University of Bonn Bonn, Germany ehlers@joyce.giub.uni-bonn.de

or send an e-mail to: staff.ihdp@uni-bonn.de

Ecole Normale Superieure Laboratoire d'Ecologie Paris, France loreau@ens.fr

• Carlo J. Jaeger Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) Potsdam, Germany carlo.jaeger@pik-potsdam.de

• Tatiana Kluvankova-Oravska Institute for Forecasting Slovak Academy of Sciences Bratislava, Slovak Republic tatiana@progeko.savba.sk

• Elinor Ostrom Center for the Study of Institutions, Population & Environmental Change Indiana University Bloomington, IN, USA ostrom@indiana.edu

• Xizhe Peng Institute of Population Research Fudan Unviersity Shanghai, P.R. China xzpeng@fudan.edu.cn

• P.S. Ramakrishnan Jawaharlal Nehru University New Delhi, India psrama2001@yahoo.com

• Roberto Sanchez-Rodriguez University of California Santa Cruz, CA, USA rsanchez@weber.ucsd.edu

• Paul L.G. Vlek Center for Development Research (ZEF) Bonn, Germany p.vlek@uni-bonn.de

IGBP • Guy Brasseur

➤

Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology Hamburg, Germany brasseur@dkrz.de

START (alternating) • Sulochana Gadgil ➤

Indian Institute of Science & Oceanic Sciences Bangalore, India sulo@caos.iisc.ernet.in

• Graeme I. Pearman CSIRO Atmospheric Research Aspendale, Australia graeme.pearman@dar.csiro.au

WCRP • Peter Lemke

➤

Alfred-Wegener-Institute for Polar and Marine Research Bremerhaven, Germany plemke@awi-bremerhaven.de

GECHS • Michael Brklacich

➤

Carleton University Ottawa, Canada mbrklac@ccs.carleton.ca

IDGEC • Oran R. Young

➤

Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, USA oran.r.young@dartmouth.edu

IT • Pier Vellinga

➤

EX-OFFICO MEMBERS IHDP SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEE

Dean, Faculty of Life and Earth Sciences Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam The Netherlands vell@geo.vu.nl

ICSU • Gordon McBean

➤

➤

• Arild Underdahl Rector, University of Oslo Oslo, Norway arild.underdal@stv.uio.no ➤ Members • William C. Clark

JFK School of Government Harvard University Cambridge, MA, USA william_clark@harvard.edu

IHDP Secretariat at the above address

DIVERSITAS • Michel Loreau

➤

• Carl Folke CNM, Stockholm University Stockholm, Sweden calle@system.ecology.su.se

24 | IHDP NEWSLETTER 3/2002

Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada gmcbean@fes.engga.uwo.ca ➤

LUCC • Eric Lambin

Dept. of Geography University of Louvain Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium lambin@geog.ucl.ac.be

ISSC

• Kurt Pawlik Institute for Psychology I University of Hamburg, Germany pe6a017@uni-hamburg.de

SOCIAL SCIENCE LIAISON OFFICER • João M. Morais IGBP Secretariat The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, P.O. Box 50 005 10405 Stockholm, Sweden morais@igbp.kva.se