Government Affairs - Legislative Republicans Defend Majority Absent Blue Wave

LEGISLATIVE REPUBLICANS DEFEND MAJORITY ABSENT BLUE WAVE

We were told a large, political blue wave was imminent on Tuesday, November 3rd. Every single Wisconsin poll conducted since this spring had Joe Biden defeating Donald Trump on average by 6.7 percent, according to RealClearPolitics (RCP) data. The mainstream news media, night after night told us the President had no chance of winning in Wisconsin both in 2016 and 2020. Wisconsin’s respected Marquette University Law School poll had Biden ahead by 5-points. And an ABC/Washington Post poll, just a week before the election, had Biden leading by a whopping 17-points. Internal campaign polls were hinting that numerous down-ballot legislative races, particularly in the Milwaukee suburbs, would get swept up in the wave. Privately, Wisconsin stateside Republicans were preparing for a worst-case, “bloodbath” scenario.

Then November 4th came and we woke up to discover that the blue wave never came and the polling was wrong for a second straight Presidential election. While Trump lost the state of Wisconsin to Biden in unofficial results by less than one percent, arguably the opposite of a blue wave happened here and elsewhere across the country. Republicans so far have done better than analysts expected in state legislative contests, as well as the U.S. Senate and House. The pollsters were caught with their pants down...again.

To date, at the federal level the GOP has picked up 7 House seats and are positioned to win additional contests narrowing the Democratic house majority going into the next Congress. In the U.S. Senate, Democrats won seats in Arizona and Colorado, while losing one in Alabama. The biggest surprise of the night though was Republican incumbents thought to be in danger to one degree or another in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Montana, North Carolina, and South Carolina all held on, comfortably winning in most cases.

With 50 seats declared for Republicans, control of the U.S. Senate will come down to two runoff races in the state of Georgia on January 5. If incumbents David Perdue or Kelly Loeffler hold onto their seats, Republicans will have at least a one seat majority and keep control. If Democrats can sweep both contests, Democrats will regain control of the majority with Vice President-elect Kamala Harris as the deciding vote on many issues.

Stateside in Wisconsin, Senate Republicans managed to increase their majority from 18 seats to 21 seats by knocking off an incumbent Democrat and winning an open seat, falling just one seat short of a two-thirds veto proof majority. Several incumbent Republicans who many thought could fall on election night, like longtime Senator Alberta Darling near Milwaukee and Senator Patrick Testin in central Wisconsin, easily won their re-election. Assembly Republicans did lose two seats in the Milwaukee suburbs, but they maintained their majority with 61 seats and almost defeated two Democratic incumbents in northern Wisconsin, when they were fully prepared on election eve to lose up to 8 seats. It’s no secret to anyone paying attention that Republicans were out-polled and heavily out-spent by Democrats this election cycle by a 2:1 margin on the prediction of a Democratic blue wave, yet they managed to return comfortably in control of both houses for the upcoming 2021-22 legislative session. The result of the election in Wisconsin is politically significant for state lawmakers here because in 2021 they start the important process of redistricting that

will determine legislative district boundaries and possibly partisan control of the legislature for the next decade. Fortunately for Democrats, Governor Tony Evers will have a say in the redistricting plan which is likely to end up in the courts. But this next partisan battle makes the 2022 gubernatorial race that much more consequential for both parties. And that race has already begun.

Next session, there will be a total of 24 new lawmakers sworn in to the Legislature in January. Sixteen are new to the State Assembly (6 Republicans and 10 Democrats) and 8 will join the State Senate (5 Republicans and 3 Democrats). Five of the Senator-elect members previously served in the State Assembly. The 24 new lawmakers is slightly below the 27 new lawmakers that were on average sworn in each session over the last 10 years. Nearly two-thirds of the 99 members of the State Assembly were elected in 2014 or since 2014. 59% of Assembly Republicans and 68% of Assembly Democrats have been elected since 2014. Almost half of Assembly Democrats (47%) were elected in the last two election cycles. 70% of the State Senate has been elected since 2014. Over three-fourths of the Senate Republican Caucus (76%) have been elected since 2014 and just over half (7 of 12) of the Senate Democrats have been elected since 2014. These figures represent a newer and less experienced Legislature than years past. The Insurance industry alone will face new chairs of the Insurance Committees in both the Senate and Assembly. Outgoing Assembly chairman, Representative Kevin Petersen, was elected to the leadership post of Assistant Majority Leader and can no longer chair a committee. He has served as Insurance Committee chair since 2011. And Senate Insurance Committee chair, Senator Dave Craig, did not seek re-election this fall.

Following the election, all four legislative caucuses quickly elected their respective leadership for the 2021-2022 legislative session. The most notable changes took place in the Senate where Senator Devin LeMahieu (R-Oostburg) was elected to serve as the new Senate Republican Majority Leader replacing outgoing Senator Scott Fitzgerald who won election to U.S. House of Representatives in the 5th congressional district. Senator Chris Kapenga (R-Delafield) was chosen to serve as Senate President replacing Senator Roger Roth of Appleton who came up short running for the Majority Leader post. Here is the full slate of caucus leadership for next session:

Assembly Republicans

• Speaker – Robin Vos (R-Rochester) • Speaker Pro Tempore – Tyler August (R-Lake Geneva) • Majority Leader – Jim Steineke (R-Kaukauna) • Assistant Majority Leader – Kevin Petersen (R-Waupaca) • Caucus Chair – Tyler Vorpagel (R-Plymouth) • Assistant Caucus Chair – Cindi Duchow (R-Town of Delafield) • Caucus Secretary – Jessie Rodriguez (R-Oak Creek) • Caucus Sergeant at Arms – Samantha Kerkman (R-Salem)

Assembly Democrats

• Minority Leader – Gordon Hintz (D-Oshkosh) • Assistant Minority Leader – Dianne Hesselbein (D-Middleton) • Caucus Chair – Mark Spreitzer (D-Beloit) • Assistant Caucus Chair – Lisa Subeck (D-Madison) • Caucus Secretary – Beth Meyers (D-Bayfield) • Caucus Sergeant at Arms – Kaylan Haywood (D-Milwaukee)

Senate Republicans

• Majority Leader - Devin LeMahieu (R-Oostburg) • President - Chris Kapenga (R-Delafield) • President Pro-Tempore - Patrick Testin (R-Stevens Point) • Assistant Majority Leader - Dan Feyen (R-Fond du Lac) • Caucus Chair - Van Wanggaard (R-Racine) • Caucus Vice-Chair - Kathy Bernier (R-Chippewa Falls)

Senate Democrats

• Minority Leader – Janet Bewley (D-Mason) • Assistant Minority Leader – Janis Ringhand (D-Evansville) • Caucus Chair – Jeff Smith (D-Eau Claire) • Assistant Caucus Chair – Melissa Sargent (D-Madison)

> Misha Lee

IIAW Lobbyist