GOVERNMENT AFFAIRS
LEGISLATIVE REPUBLICANS DEFEND MAJORITY ABSENT BLUE WAVE
We were told a large, political blue wave was imminent on Tuesday, November 3rd. Every single Wisconsin poll conducted since this spring had Joe Biden defeating Donald Trump on average by 6.7 percent, according to RealClearPolitics (RCP) data. The mainstream news media, night after night told us the President had no chance of winning in Wisconsin both in 2016 and 2020. Wisconsin’s respected Marquette University Law School poll had Biden ahead by 5-points. And an ABC/Washington Post poll, just a week before the election, had Biden leading by a whopping 17-points. Internal campaign polls were hinting that numerous down-ballot legislative races, particularly in the Milwaukee suburbs, would get swept up in the wave. Privately, Wisconsin stateside Republicans were preparing for a worst-case, “bloodbath” scenario. Then November 4th came and we woke up to discover that the blue wave never came and the polling was wrong for a second straight Presidential election. While Trump lost the state of Wisconsin to Biden in unofficial results by less than one percent, arguably the opposite of a blue wave happened here and elsewhere across the country. Republicans so far have done better than analysts expected in state legislative contests, as well as the U.S. Senate and House. The pollsters were caught with their pants down...again. To date, at the federal level the GOP has picked up 7 House seats and are positioned to win additional contests narrowing the Democratic house majority going into the next Congress. In the U.S. Senate, Democrats won seats in Arizona and Colorado, while losing one in Alabama. The biggest surprise of the night though was Republican incumbents thought 20| DECEMBER | DECEMBER2020 2020 | | 20
wisconsin wisconsin INDEPENDENTAGENT AGENT INDEPENDENT
to be in danger to one degree or another in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Montana, North Carolina, and South Carolina all held on, comfortably winning in most cases. With 50 seats declared for Republicans, control of the U.S. Senate will come down to two runoff races in the state of Georgia on January 5. If incumbents David Perdue or Kelly Loeffler hold onto their seats, Republicans will have at least a one seat majority and keep control. If Democrats can sweep both contests, Democrats will regain control of the majority with Vice President-elect Kamala Harris as the deciding vote on many issues. Stateside in Wisconsin, Senate Republicans managed to increase their majority from 18 seats to 21 seats by knocking off an incumbent Democrat and winning an open seat, falling just one seat short of a two-thirds veto proof majority. Several incumbent Republicans who many thought could fall on election night, like longtime Senator Alberta Darling near Milwaukee and Senator Patrick Testin in central Wisconsin, easily won their re-election. Assembly Republicans did lose two seats in the Milwaukee suburbs, but they maintained their majority with 61 seats and almost defeated two Democratic incumbents in northern Wisconsin, when they were fully prepared on election eve to lose up to 8 seats. It’s no secret to anyone paying attention that Republicans were out-polled and heavily out-spent by Democrats this election cycle by a 2:1 margin on the prediction of a Democratic blue wave, yet they managed to return comfortably in control of both houses for the upcoming 2021-22 legislative session. The result of the election in Wisconsin is politically significant for state lawmakers here because in 2021 they start the important process of redistricting that
