GOVERNMENT AFFAIRS

NEW POLL HIGHLIGHTS TIGHT RACES FOR GOVERNOR AND U.S. SENATE

Get ready Wisconsinites for yet another closely watched, competitive election year. That’s according to the latest results from a new Marquette University Law School poll released earlier this month. The poll of 803 registered voters suggests that the high profile primary races among Republicans for the job of Governor and for the coveted position of United States Senator among Democrats are equally shaping up to be tight contests with just less than a month and a half to go until the August 9 primaries and the general election to follow on November 8. These two races, in particular, are important politically because they could ultimately decide who controls the U.S. Senate and/or whether the state of Wisconsin will continue with split party governance or have one party control of the legislative and executive branches next session.

In the now, five-way Republican gubernatorial primary that determines who will face off against first-term, incumbent Democrat Governor Tony Evers, business owner Tim Michels and former Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch are running in a neck-and-neck race with Michels having a slight lead of 27 percent among Republicans and Independents who say they will vote in the GOP primary. Kleefisch received support from 26 percent of primary voters, Kevin Nicholson had 10 percent, Tim Ramthun 3 percent, and relative unknown Adam Fischer with less than .5 percent.

Tim Michels’ candidacy is a late entry into the race since April 22 and yet already he has made a name for himself (aside from his well-known Wisconsin construction business - Michels Corporation), most notably receiving the muchsought-after endorsement of former President Donald Trump, who continues to carry significant sway in Wisconsin and nationwide among Republican voters. Michels returns to the political stage having last ran for public office nearly two decades ago in 2004 when he won a four-way Republican primary for U.S. Senate. He ultimately lost in the general election to former U.S. Senator Russ Feingold. Kleefisch, who is most known for serving alongside former Governor Scott Walker for two full terms as Lt. Governor from 2011 to 2019, has been campaigning for the better part of a year now and leads slightly in favorability ratings among her GOP rivals with 44 percent favorability versus 10 percent who had an unfavorable view of her. Candidate Michels was close behind with 42 percent favorability and 7 percent unfavorable; Nicholson at 27 percent; and Ramthun with 3 percent. The most noteworthy statistic in this race taken from the latest poll results is that a substantial 32 percent (nearly one third) of Republican primary voters remain undecided in this contest, meaning this race is a toss-up as each of the candidates try to convince the large swath of undecided voters to support them as the Republican nominee. For someone like Kleefisch, who is a pretty wellknown commodity among GOP voters and who has been campaigning longer and harder than the rest of the field, it will likely be more difficult for her to pick up significant votes from this group of undecideds unless her campaign is able to convince them that she is the only candidate in the GOP field that can defeat Evers in November.

The Marquette poll also revealed a close race in Wisconsin’s Democratic U.S. Senate primary that will determine who will challenge incumbent U.S. Senator Ron Johnson who is running for another 6-year term despite having initially said that he wouldn’t run again. Current Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes, who is widely seen as the primary race’s frontrunner, leads the rather large, eight-person field with 25 percent of Democratic primary voters who say they would vote for him. Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry, received 21 percent with the four-point differential between him and Barnes falling within the poll’s margin of error making the race a virtual tie. In a distant third and fourth place and not gaining much ground from previously conducted polls is Wisconsin State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski who received just 9 percent and Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson who received 7 percent support. The other remaining candidates received 1 percent or less. At some point it is possible one or both of these primary candidates (Godlewski and Nelson) may decide to suspend their campaigns due to lack of momentum and possibly throw their support behind another candidate which could dramatically alter who leads the field. Similarly as in the Republican gubernatorial race, a significant 36 percent of Democratic U.S. Senate primary voters still have not made up their minds on who to support in this wide open contest. More than one-third of primary voters are still up for grabs in this primary battle. It will be a close race to the August 9 finish line for sure, but the campaigns for Mandela Barnes and Alex Lasry have clearly established themselves as the two leading Democratic candidates in this Senate primary.

The poll also previewed early head-to-head general election matchups between incumbent Governor Tony Evers and his potential Republican challengers, as well as U.S. Senator Ron Johnson against his potential Democratic rivals. The poll results revealed some initial positive news for Evers in that he leads all of his potential challengers regardless of who might emerge in the primary. While it is still very early to make any assumptions about these results and the mood of the electorate is certainly volatile heading into November, Evers’ lead over his potential challengers highlights the advantages of incumbency and having the bully pulpit, especially if the incumbent hasn’t given voters a real strong reason to send him packing. The closest general election matchup in the poll is between Evers and Kleefisch where he has a slight lead of 47 percent to 43 percent and it was the only matchup that fell within the poll’s margin of error. However, unlike Evers, U.S. Senator Ron Johnson trailed all but one potential challenger in a head-to-head matchup, according to the poll revealing his vulnerability as an incumbent seeking re-election. The only candidate where Johnson led was against Alex Lasry by just three percentage points and all matchups fell well within the poll’s margin of error meaning this will be a very tight race in November no matter who emerges from the Democratic side. Some observers highlight that Sen. Johnson is the number one target nationally for Democrats as a seat to pick up in November. Johnson has trailed in the polls before and somehow managed to win. It remains to be seen whether or not he can continue that streak in an off-presidential election year where turnout and how independent voters break will be a determining factor.

The Marquette Law School poll interviewed 803 registered Wisconsin voters by landline or cell phone from June 14-20, 2022. The margin of error is +/-4.3 percentage points for the full sample. The margin of error for 369 Democratic primary voters is 6.2 percentage points and for 372 Republican primary voters is 6.3 percentage points.

See the official poll results at bit.ly/MarquettePollResults.

> Misha Lee

IIAW Lobbyist