JAES No. 2-2014-Vol. 12

Page 1


IMPRESSUM J O U R N A L O F A P P L I E D E N G I N E E R I N G S C I E N C E (J A E S) The journal publishes original and review articles covering the concept of technical science, energy and environment, industrial engineering, quality management and other related sciences. JAES is Open-Access Journal that follows new trends and progress proven practice in listed fields, thus creating a unique forum for interdisciplinary or multidisciplinary dialogue. JAES is part of the electronic journal editing with a transparent editorial and review policy. Provided are: • Online paper submission and tracking of review process with communication between editors, authors and reviewers • CrossRef: assignment of numerical identifiers (DOI) to assure greater visibility and accessibility of journal articles • CrossCheck: control for originality of submitted papers, to prevent plagiarism and duplicate publications • KWASS: automatic extraction of keywords from disciplinary thesaurus • Online-first publishing • Automatic transfer of metadata to SCIndeks that support international protocols for data transfer All published articles are indexed by international abstract base Elsevier Bibliographic Databases through service SCOPUS since 2006 and through service SCImago Journal Rank since 2011. Serbian Ministry of Science admitted the Journal of Applied Engineering Science in a list of reference journals as Leading national journal M51. Same Ministry financially supports journal’s publication. Publisher Institute for Research and Design in Commerce and Industry - IIPP; www.iipp.rs For publisher: Prof. dr Branko Vasić Copublisher Faculty of Mechanical Engineering – Belgrade University; www.mas.bg.ac.rs For copublisher: Prof. dr Milorad Milovančević Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering – Belgrade University; www.sf.bg.ac.rs For copublisher: Prof. dr Branimir Stanić Editor in Chief Prof. dr Jovan Todorović Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Belgrade; Assistant Editor Dr Predrag Uskoković, IIPP Editorial Board Prof. dr Gradimir Danon, Faculty of Forestry, Belgrade; Doc. dr Dušan Milutinović, Institute for Transport and Traffic CIP, Belgrade; Mr Đorđe Milosavljević, CPI - Process Engineering Center, Belgrade; Prof. dr Miodrag Zec, Faculty of Philosophy, Belgrade; Prof. dr Nenad Đajić, Mining and Geology Faculty, Belgrade; Prof. dr Vlastimir Dedović, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engeneering, Belgrade; Prof. dr Mirko Vujošević, Faculty of organizational sciences, Belgrade; Prof. dr Vladimir Popović, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Belgrade; Prof. dr Vesna Spasojević Brkić, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Belgrade; Prof. dr Dragan Aleksendrić, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Belgrade.

International Editorial Board Prof. dr Vukan Vučić, University of Pennsylvania, USA; Prof. dr Robert Bjeković, Hochschule Ravensburg-Weingarten, Germany; Prof. dr Jozef Aronov, Research Institute for Certification JSC, Russia; Prof. dr Jezdimir Knežević, MIRCE Akademy, England; Dr Nebojša Kovačević, Geotechnical consulting group, England; Adam Zielinski, Solaris Bus & Coach, Poland; Prof. dr Miloš Knežević, Faculty for Civil Engineering, Montenegro; MSc Siniša Vidović, Energy Testing & Balance Inc, USA; Dr Zdravko Milovanović, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Banja Luka. Publishing Council Prof. dr Milorad Milovančević, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Belgrade; Milutin Ignjatović, Institute for Transport and Traffic CIP, Belgrade; Dragan Belić, Transport Company “Lasta”, Belgrade; Dr Deda Đelović, Port of Bar, Bar; Dr Drago Šerović, Adriatic Shipyard, Bijela; Cvijo Babić, Belgrade Waterworks and Sewerage, Belgrade; Nenad Jankov, Power Plant Kostolac B, Kostolac; Miroslav Vuković, Mercator Business System, Belgrade; Dušan Đurašević, Euro Sumar, Belgrade. Editorial Office Nada Stanojević, Miloš Vasić, Darko Stanojević, Miloš Dimitrijević, Ivana Spasojević, IIPP, Belgrade; Printed by: Sigrastar, Belgrade Designed and prepress: IIPP

ISSN 1451-4117 UDC 33 Papers are indexed by SCOPUS Journal of Applied Engineering Science 11(2013)4


& 2 1 7 ( 1 7 6

8URã 6YU]Lü 'U *UDGLPLU 'DQRQ

62/9,1* 352%/(06 ,1 :22' 3$548(7 352'8&7,21 %< 86,1* ³ 67(36´ 2) :25/' &/$66 0$18)$&785,1* :&0 0(7+2'2/2*< 9HUD 0XUJXO 62/$5 (1(5*< 6<67(06 ,1 7+( 5(&216758&7,21 2) +(5,7$*( +,6725,&$/ %8,/',1*6 2) 7+( 1257+(51 72:16 )25 (;$03/( 6$,17 3(7(56%85*

'U ýDVODY 0LWURYLü 'U *RUDQ 9RURWRYLü 'U 1HERMãD 3HWURYLü 'UDJDQ 6WDPHQNRYLü 6YHWODQD 6WRMLOMNRYLü $'9$1&(' 6758&785$/ 7(67,1* 0(7+2'6 )25 60$// :,1' 785%,1(6 %/$'( 83 72 )$,/85( 'U 7RPDV +DQDN -DQD .RU\WDURYD 5,6. =21,1* ,1 7+( &217(;7 2) ,1685$1&( &203$5,621 2) )/22' 612: /2$' :,1'67250 $1' +$,/67250 .DWDULQD 'LPLü 0LãLü .DDUOR 1LHPLQHQ 7KDGGHXV 0DORQH\ +HUEHUW 6L[WD -RXQL 3DOWDNDUL 352&(66,1* 3/$7( 3/$7( ,002%,/,=$7,21 '$7$ 2) 01)& )851,6+(6 'U $OH[DQGHU 'DQLORY 2OJD 7XVQLQD 7+( -2,176 2) &2/' )250(' 385/,16 'U 9HVQD 6SDVRMHYLü %UNLü 7DPDUD *ROXERYLü 'U 'UDJDQ ' 0LODQRYLü $OHNVDQGDU %UNLü &5$1( 23(5$7256¶ $17+52320($685(6 )$&7256 ,'(17,),&$7,21 $OHNVDQGDU 1HGLü 1HPDQMD 1HGLü ,JRU 6WHYDQRYLü 'DUNR 6WDQRMHYLü 5(9,(: 2) 9(+,&/( 7(/(0$7,&6 86$*( %$6(' ,1685$1&( &2175,%87,21 72 6867$,1$%/( ,1685$1&( 675$7(*< (9(176 5(9,(:

$11281&(0(17 2) (9(176

%22. 5(&200(1'$7,21 (',725,$/ $1' $%675$&76 ,1 6(5%,$1 /$1*8$*(

,QVWLWXWH IRU UHVHDUFK DQG GHVLJQ LQ FRPPHUFH LQGXVWU\ %HOJUDGH $OO ULJKWV UHVHUYHG -RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH


( ' , 7 2 5 , $ / ,W LV NQRZQ WKDW EHWZHHQ HQHUJ\ GHYHORSPHQW DQG RWKHU LQGXVWU\ VHF WRUV PXVW H[LVW D YHU\ KLJK FRKHUHQFH DQG FRUUHODWLRQ ZKLFK UHTXLUHV WKH GHILQLWLRQ RI ORQJ WHUP HQHUJ\ SROLF\ LQ RUGHU WR SURYLGH DQ RULHQ WDWLRQ WR RZQ HQHUJ\ VRXUFHV VLPXOWDQHRXVO\ HQVXULQJ WKH RSWLPDO VWUXFWXUH RI VXSSO\ LPSRUWV FRQVXPSWLRQ DFKLHYHPHQW RI UDWLRQDO XVH RI HQHUJ\ DQG UHGXFLQJ LWV LPSDFW WR WKH HQYLURQPHQW ,Q WK WKDW ZDV WKH PDLQ UHDVRQ IRU WKH DGRSWLRQ RI ³6HUELDQ (QHUJ\ 'H YHORSPHQW 6WUDWHJ\ XQWLO $FFRUGLQJ WR WKLV VWUDWHJ\ ZKLFK ZDV DGRSWHG RQ WKH EDVLV RI WKH /DZ RQ (QHUJ\ WKH WZR PDLQ RE MHFWLYHV RI WKH HQHUJ\ V\VWHP UHIRUP ZHUH WKH HVWDEOLVKPHQW RI TXDOL 3URI GU 1HQDG ĈDMLü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Ä6HUELDQ (QHUJ\ 'HYHORSPHQW 6WUDWHJ\ XQWLO ³ ZLWK SURMHFWLRQV WR ³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ĈDMLü

-RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH


3URIHVVLRQDO 3DSHU

GRL MDHV

3DSHU QXPEHU

62/9,1* 352%/(06 ,1 :22' 3$548(7 352'8&7,21 %< 86,1* ³ 67(36´ 2) :25/' &/$66 0$18)$&785,1* :&0 0(7+2'2/2*< 8URã 6YU]Lü )DFXOW\ RI )RUHVWU\ %HOJUDGH 6HUELD 'U *UDGLPLU 'DQRQ )DFXOW\ RI )RUHVWU\ %HOJUDGH 6HUELD 7KH SDSHU SUHVHQWV WKH PHWKRG IRU VROYLQJ WKH SUREOHP LQ SURGXFWLRQ E\ XVLQJ ³ VWHSV´ RI :RUOG &ODVV 0DQXIDFWXULQJ 0HWKRGRORJ\ :&0 )RU HDFK FRPSDQ\ ZLWK VHULDO SURGXFWLRQ LW LV LPSRUWDQW WR NQRZ ZKDW WR ³DWWDFN WR DFKLHYH JRDOV DQG WR LQFUHDVH WKH 2((´ 7KH JRDO RI HDFK FRPSDQ\ LV WR UHGXFH ILQDQFLDO ORVVHV EXW LW LV LPSRUWDQW WR KRZ WR HIILFLHQWO\ DFKLHYH WKDW ,Q WKLV FDVH RQH RI FKURQLF SUREOHPV LQ ODFTXHULQJ OLQH JRHV WR ORVV GXH WR WKH VSOLWWLQJ RI VDQGLQJ SDSHU LQ WKH VKDUH RI RI SURFHVV ORVV RU RI DOO ORVVHV IRU WKDW OLQH 7KH ZD\ WR VROYH WKLV SUREOHP ZDV E\ XVLQJ ³ VWHSV PHWKRGRORJ\´ ,QGLFDWRU IRU VROYLQJ WKH SUREOHP ZDV RI LQIOXHQFH RQ 2YHUDOO HTXLSPHQW HIIHFWLYHQHVV 2(( $ PRUH GHWDLOHG DQDO\VLV VKRZV WKDW WKHUH DUH IRXU SRVVLEOH FDXVHV RI WKLV SUREOHP 7\SH DQG TXDOLW\ RI SDSHU HQG FRQQHFWLRQ KDG WKH ELJJHVW LPSDFW 7KH SUREOHP ZDV VROYHG E\ FKDQJLQJ TXDOLW\ RI SDSHU DQG LWV FRQQHFWLRQ 2QH YHU\ ³HDV\´ VROXWLRQ IRU XQQRWLFHG ORVV FDXVHG YHU\ ELJ VDYLQJ IRU WKH FRPSDQ\ .H\ ZRUGV 7KUHH OD\HU SDUTXHW 3URGXFWLYLW\ 2(( 3DUHWR DQDO\VLV (IIHFWLYHQHVV :&0 VWHSV SUREOHP VROYLQJ ,1752'8&7,21 7R DFKLHYH KLJK HIILFLHQF\ VHJPHQW LQ SURGXFWLRQ FRPSDQLHV QHHG WR NQRZ WKHLU VWUXFWXUHV DQG PDQ DJHPHQW 7KH\ QHHG WR IROORZ DOO SDUDPHWHUV WR VHH WKH JRRG DQG EDG VLGHV DQG WR PDQDJH WKHP PDNLQJ D EDODQFH EHWZHHQ VKRUW WHUP DQG ORQJ WHUP EHQ HILWV PHDVXULQJ WKHLU SHUIRUPDQFHV LQ D EHWWHU ZD\ > @ 6FKPHQQHU VKRZHG LQ DQ HPSLULFDO VWXG\ > @ WKDW PRVW RI DQDO\]HG FRPSDQLHV QHHGHG VHULRXVO\ WR FRQVLGHU FKDQJLQJ WKHLU SHUIRUPDQFH PHDVXUH PHQWV 7KH\ DUJXHG WKDW PRVW ILUPV ZHUH ERWK XVLQJ ZURQJ PHDVXUHV DQG IDLOLQJ WR XVH WKH ULJKW PHD VXUHV LQ FRUUHFW ZD\V 3DWULN -RQVVRQ DQG 0DJQXV /HVVKDPPDU LQ > @ FRQVLGHUHG WKDW LW ZDV VHUL RXV DQG LW WKHUHIRUH VHHPHG LPSRUWDQW WR LGHQWLI\ WKH FULWLFDO GLPHQVLRQV LQ D SHUIRUPDQFH PHDVXUH PHQW V\VWHP ZKDW WR PHDVXUH DQG WKH RSWLPXP FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI WKH PHDVXUHV KRZ WR PHDVXUH 0HDVXUHPHQW V\VWHPV FRXOG WKHQ EH HYDOXDWHG DQG LPSURYHG ZLWK WKH GLPHQVLRQV DQG FKDUDFWHU LVWLFV DV FRPSDUDWLYH GDWD %XVLQHVV RI WKH FRPSDQ\ LV PHDVXUHG E\ WKH FRVW DQG ODUJHU VKDUH RI WKH WRWDO FRVWV RI SUR )DFXOW\ RI )RUHVWU\ .QH]D 9LãHVODYD %HOJUDGH 6HUELD XURVYU]LF #\DKRR FRP

GXFWLRQ FDQ EH DWWULEXWHG WR SURGXFWLRQ ORVVHV DQG RWKHU LQGLUHFW DQG ³KLGGHQ´ FRVWV > @ 7KH ZD\ KRZ SURGXFWLRQ FRVW FDQ EH FODVVLILHG DQG IROORZHG PRUH HDVLO\ LV WKURXJK SDUDPHWHU 2(( 2(( ±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


8URã 6YU]L 6ROYLQJ SUREOHPV LQ ZRRG SDUTXHW SURGXFWLRQ E\ XVLQJ Ý VWHSVÝ RI ZRUOG FODVV PDQXIDFWXULQJ :&0 PHWKRGRORJ\

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¶W EHHQ PHDVXUHG FDQ¶W EH LP SURYHG 7KHUHIRUH GDWD FROOHFWLRQ QHHGV WR EH VXIILFLHQWO\ GHWDLOHG ,W LV LPSRUWDQW WR GLVWLQJXLVK ZKDW SDUDPHWHUV WR PHDVXUH 7RR GHWDLOHG GDWD FROOHFWLRQ PD\ UHVXOW LQ XQPRWLYDWHG SHUVRQQHO DQG UHDFWLRQ DJDLQVW WKH PHDVXUHPHQW

7KH PRVW LPSRUWDQW REMHFWLYH RI WKH 2(( LV QRW WR JHW DQ RSWLPXP PHDVXUH EXW WR JHW D VLPSOH PHDVXUH WKDW WHOOV WKH SURGXFWLRQ SHUVRQQHO ZKHUH WR LQYHVW WKHLU LPSURYHPHQW UHVRXUFHV 7KH GDWD FROOHFWLRQ VKRXOG EH FDUULHG RXW E\ WKH SHUVRQQHO ZKR FDQ DIIHFW WKH PHDVXUHG SDUDP HWHUV $ JRRG H[DPSOH RI WKLV LV VKRZQ LQ IXUWKHU VWHSV RI WKH VWXG\ 0$7(5,$/ ± 7+5(( /$<(5 3$548(7 0DWHULDO LV WUHH OD\HU SDUTXHW RI PP WKLFN QHVV ZLWK WRS OD\HU RI PP WKLFNQHVV PDGH RI KDUG ZRRG DQG FRPSRVHG RI ODPHOODV PP ZLGH ZLWK GLIIHUHQW OHQJWKV PLGGOH OD\HU WUDQVYHUVH OLQHG WR WRS OD\HU PDGH RI ZRRG VODWV RI VSUXFH VSHFLHV RI PP WKLFNQHVV DQG ERWWRP OD\HU RI VSUXFH YHQHHU RI PP WKLFNQHVV )LJXUH

)LJXUH 7KUHH /D\HU 3DUTXHW

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

-RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH


8URã 6YU]L 6ROYLQJ SUREOHPV LQ ZRRG SDUTXHW SURGXFWLRQ E\ XVLQJ Ý VWHSVÝ RI ZRUOG FODVV PDQXIDFWXULQJ :&0 PHWKRGRORJ\

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³LQ VROG RXW´ PRGH VR HDFK EUHDNGRZQ DIIHFWV VDOH UHVXOWV 6LQFH WKH ODFTXHULQJ OLQH LV WKH SURGXFWLRQ ³ERWWOH QHFN´ VROYLQJ RI WKHVH SUREOHPV LV RI KLJK SULRULW\ 3URE OHP VROYLQJ DSSURDFK ZLOO EH H[SODLQHG WKURXJK VR FDOOHG ³6SOLWWLQJ 6DQGLQJ 3DSHU´ SURMHFW 81'(567$1',1* 2) 7+( 352%/(0

)LJXUH 6FKHPD RI WKH ODFTXHULQJ OLQH -RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH

&KDQJLQJ VDQGLQJ SDSHU LV HYHU\GD\ DFWLYLW\ ZKLFK LV FDUULHG RXW ZKHQ WKH SDSHU VXUIDFH URXJKQHVV GURSV EHORZ WKH SUHVFULEHG OLPLW 7LPH IRU WKDW FKDQJH LV SODQHG RXWDJH $QRWKHU W\SH RI EUHDNGRZQ LV FDXVHG E\ VSOLWWLQJ WKH SDSHU GXU LQJ VWDQGDUG SURGXFWLRQ ZKLFK LV QRW FRQWUROOHG DQG PD\ RFFXU DW DQ\ WLPH 7KLV UDQGRP EUHDNGRZQ WDNHV PRUH WLPH WR UH OD\ WKH SURGXFWLRQ OLQH LQ ZRUNLQJ FRQGLWLRQ DQG OLNH XQSODQQHG EUHDNGRZQ QHHGV WR EH PLQLPL]HG


8URã 6YU]L 6ROYLQJ SUREOHPV LQ ZRRG SDUTXHW SURGXFWLRQ E\ XVLQJ Ý VWHSVÝ RI ZRUOG FODVV PDQXIDFWXULQJ :&0 PHWKRGRORJ\

)LJXUH 6WUXFWXUH RI WKH ORVVHV RQ WKH OLQH RI WKUHH OD\HU SDUTXHW SURGXFWLRQ

)LJXUH /RVVHV RQ ODFTXHULQJ OLQH E\ FDWHJRU\ RI ORVV

)LJXUH 3URFHVV ORVVHV GLYLGHG E\ FDWHJRULHV

-RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH


8URã 6YU]L 6ROYLQJ SUREOHPV LQ ZRRG SDUTXHW SURGXFWLRQ E\ XVLQJ Ý VWHSVÝ RI ZRUOG FODVV PDQXIDFWXULQJ :&0 PHWKRGRORJ\

6HYHULW\ RI WKH SUREOHP LV FDOFXODWHG E\ ORVV LQ WLPH IRU UHSODFLQJ VDQGLQJ SDSHU DQG EUHDNGRZQ RFFXUUHQFH ORVV LQ PRQH\ WKURXJK PDFKLQH LQ DFWLYLW\ ORVV LQ XQXVHG RSHUDWRU ZRUNLQJ WLPH IRU SURGXFLQJ ³$´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

)LJXUH 3DUHWR DQDO\VLV E\ WLPH ORVW GXH WR EUHDNGRZQ FDXVHG E\ VSOLW VDQGLQJ SDSHU

&DOFXODWLQJ LQ KRXUV RI EUHDNGRZQV GXH WR VSOLW WLQJ RI VDQGLQJ SDSHU )LJXUH VKRZV WKDW PD FKLQH RQ SRVLWLRQ WZR WDNHV WKH ODUJHVW SDUW RI DOO EUHDNGRZQV $QDO\VLQJ RQO\ WKH VHFRQG PD FKLQH LW LV REWDLQHG WKDW PRVW RI WKHVH EUHDN GRZQV RFFXU RQ WKH ILUVW DQG WKH VHFRQG DJJUH JDWH DQG FRQVHTXHQWO\ WKHVH WZR SRVLWLRQV QHHG WR EH UHVROYHG DV D SULRULW\ VHH )LJXUH &ROOHFWLQJ GDWD ±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

-RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH

)LJXUH ([DPSOHV RI EURNHQ VDQGLQJ SDSHUV

,W PD\ WDNH PRUH RU OHVV WLPH GHSHQGLQJ RQ KRZ PDQ\ SLHFHV RI SDSHU ZHUH OHIW LQ PDFKLQH DIWHU SDSHU WHDU LQJ $OPRVW HYHU\ WLPH GXULQJ VXFK EUHDNGRZQV WKH PDWHULDO LV EHQHDWK WKH VDQGLQJ SDSHU DQG WKLV PDWH ULDO JRHV WR ZDVWH EHFDXVH WKHUH LV QR PDWHULDO IORZ VR WKH VDQGLQJ SDSHU PDNHV GHHS GHIHFWV RQ WKH VXU IDFH RI WKH PDWHULDO ZKLFK LV QRW PRYLQJ


8URã 6YU]Lü 6ROYLQJ SUREOHPV LQ ZRRG SDUTXHW SURGXFWLRQ E\ XVLQJ Ý VWHSVÝ RI ZRUOG FODVV PDQXIDFWXULQJ :&0 PHWKRGRORJ\

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±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± 6WHS *OREDO WDUJHW RI WKH FRPSDQ\ LV WR LQFUHDVH WKH FRHIILFLHQW 2(( EXW VSHFLILF WDUJHW IRU WKH VHF RQG VDQGLQJ PDFKLQH LV WKH QXPEHU RI VSOLWWLQJ ,PSDFW RQ 2(( LQ UHIHUHQFH SHULRG ZDV DQG WKH JRDO DUH WR DFKLHYH ]HUR VSOLWWLQJ DQG LPSDFW RQ 2(( 5RRW FDXVH DQDO\VLV ±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


8URã 6YU]L 6ROYLQJ SUREOHPV LQ ZRRG SDUTXHW SURGXFWLRQ E\ XVLQJ Ý VWHSVÝ RI ZRUOG FODVV PDQXIDFWXULQJ :&0 PHWKRGRORJ\

KDYH DGHTXDWH VSOLWWLQJ VWUHQJWK IRU WKH ZRUN LQJ FRQGLWLRQV DQG WKDW WKH SDSHU EDVH ZDV QRW FRQYHQLHQW 7KH WKLUG K\SRWKHVLV ZDV WKDW WKH ZRUQ RXW SDUW LQ WKH ZLGWK ZDV QRW WKH VDPH DOO RYHU WKH SDSHU EXW LW ZDV UHMHFWHG VLQFH XQGHU QRUPDO FRQGLWLRQV WKH SDSHU FDQ ZRUN IRU K ZLWKRXW VSOLWWLQJ 7KH IRXUWK K\SRWKHVLV ZDV WKDW WKH VDQGLQJ SDSHU GXULQJ URWDWLRQ RYHU WKH WHQVLRQ UROOHU FDXVHG WKH VSOLWWLQJ VXSSRUWHG E\ WKH IDFW WKDW WKH UROOHU ZDV QRW VWUDLJKW DORQJ IXOO OHQJWK

)LJXUH 6FKHPD RI DJJUHJDWHV RI WKH VHFRQG VDQGLQJ PDFKLQH DQG DPRXQW RI ZRRG ZLWK FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI VDQGLQJ SDSHUV

$SSO\LQJ FRXQWHUPHDVXUHV ± 6WHS 7KH ILUVW V\VWHP DGMXVWPHQW UHIHUV WR DGMXVWLQJ WKH WKLFNQHVV RI VDQGLQJ RQ WKH ILUVW WZR DJJUH JDWHV ZKLFK ZDV TXLFNO\ GRQH 1HZ SDUDPHWHUV ZHUH VHW XS EXW WKH UHVXOWV UHPDLQHG WKH VDPH ZLWKRXW DQ\ LPSURYHPHQWV 7KH VHFRQG DGMXVWPHQW ZDV WR LQWURGXFH D VDQG LQJ SDSHU MRLQWHG LQ D QHZ ZD\ WH[WLOH EDVHG DQG ZLWK WKLQ IRLO RQ WKH EDFNVLGH WR UHLQIRUFH WKH FRQ QHFWLRQ DV UHFRPPHQGHG E\ WKH VXSSOLHU $IWHU WKH LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI WKLV PHDVXUH WKH QXPEHU

)LJXUH 6FKHPD RI VDQGLQJ SDSHU MRLQW FRQQHFWLRQ

RI EUHDNGRZQV VLJQLILFDQWO\ GHFUHDVHG %DVHG RQ WKH REWDLQHG UHVXOWV RI WKH LPSOHPHQWHG FRXQWHU PHDVXUH JHWWLQJ D QHZ WHQVLRQ UROOHU ZDV XQQHF HVVDU\ DW ILUVW JODQFH EXW LW ZDV D JRRG LQGLFDWRU WKDW RQH PRUH DFWLYLW\ QDPHO\ FKHFNV RI UROOHU ZHDU QHHGV WR EH LQFRUSRUDWHG LQ WKH PRQWKO\ PDLQWHQDQFH SODQ 1R IXUWKHU PRGLILFDWLRQV ZHUH PDGH RQ WKH VDQGLQJ PDFKLQHV RQ WKH SRVLWLRQV WKUHH DQG IRXU VLQFH RI EUHDNGRZQV RF FXUUHG RQ WKH ILUVW WZR PDFKLQHV )ROORZ XS RI WKH UHVXOWV DQG VWDQGDUGLVDWLRQ ±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

D

E )LJXUH &KHFNLQJ FKDUW D &KDUW IRU WUDFNLQJ QXPEHU RI EUHDNGRZQV GXH WR VSOLW VDQGLQJ SDSHU E &KDUW IRU WUDFNLQJ LQIOXHQFH RQ 2(( GXH WR EUHDNGRZQ FDXVHG E\ VSOLWWLQJ RI VDQGLQJ SDSHU

-RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH


8URã 6YU]L 6ROYLQJ SUREOHPV LQ ZRRG SDUTXHW SURGXFWLRQ E\ XVLQJ Ý VWHSVÝ RI ZRUOG FODVV PDQXIDFWXULQJ :&0 PHWKRGRORJ\

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³ VWHSV´ %\ XVLQJ 3DUHWR DQDO\VLV LQ WKH ZD\ WR GLYLGH FRPSOH[ SUREOHP LQ PDQ\ GHSHQGHQW IDFWRUV WR PDNH SUL RULWL]DWLRQ DQG WR VROYH RQH E\ RQH JRLQJ IURP ODUJHVW WR VPDOOHVW LPSDFW RQ SUREOHP WKH SURE OHP ZDV VROYHG RQ WKH PDFKLQH QXPEHU ZKHUH WKH VSOLWWLQJ RFFXUUHG LQ RI DOO RWKHU VDQG LQJ PDFKLQHV 8VLQJ 3DUHWR DQDO\VLV FRUH RI WKH SUREOHP ZDV VROYHG .3, RI WKH SURMHFW ZDV WR UHGXFH SURFHVV ORVV H[SUHVVHG WKURXJK LPSDFW RQ OLQH 2(( IURP WR EXW LW ZDV GLUHFW LQGLFDWRU LQ ILQDQFLDO VDYLQJV (DFK K\SRWKHWLFDO UHDVRQ IRU SDSHU VSOLWWLQJ REWDLQHG E\ WHDP ZKR ZDV VROYLQJ WKH SUREOHP QHHGHG WR EH FKHFNHG $PRQJ IRXU VROXWLRQV DW WKH HQG LW ZDV IRXQG WKDW W\SH RI SDSHU MRLQW KDG D ELJJHU LQIOXHQFH DQG WKDW LW QHHGHG WR EH LPSURYHG 7KH SUREOHP ZDV HOLPLQDWHG E\ FKDQJLQJ WKH W\SH RI SDSHU E\ SURGXFHU 7KH HVVHQFH RI WKH SUREOHP ZDV DQ LQDGHTXDWH WRRO IRU ZRUN LQ WKLV FDVH VDQG LQJ SDSHU ZKLFK UHVXOWHG LQ ELJ SURFHVV ORVV &RQWLQXRXV LPSURYHPHQW E\ :&0 QHHGV WR EH LPSOHPHQWHG LQ HYHU\GD\ DFWLYLWLHV DQG UHFKHFN

RI ORVVHV QHHGV WR EH FDUULHG RXW PRUH RIWHQ EH FDXVH WKH UHDO FDXVHV RI SUREOHPV DUH KLGGHQ EHQHDWK WKH GLUHFW FDXVHV 5()(5(1&(6 %RXUQH 0 0LOOV - :LOFR[ 0 1HHO\ $ 3ODWWV . 'HVLJQLQJ LPSOHPHQWLQJ DQG XSGDW LQJ SHUIRUPDQFH PHDVXUHPHQW V\VWHPV ,QWHU QDWLRQDO -RXUQDO RI 2SHUDWLRQV 3URGXFWLRQ 0DQDJHPHQW 9RO 1R (ULFVVRQ - 'LVUXSWLRQ $QDO\VLV ± $Q ,PSRUWDQW 7RRO LQ /HDQ 3URGXFWLRQ 'HSDUW PHQW RI 3URGXFWLRQ DQG 0DWHULDOV (QJLQHHU LQJ /XQG 8QLYHUVLW\ /XQG -RQVVRQ 3 /HVVKDPPDU 0 ³(YDOX DWLRQ DQG LPSURYHPHQW RI PDQXIDFWXULQJ SHU IRUPDQFH PHDVXUHPHQW V\VWHPV WKH UROH RI 2((´ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXUQDO RI 2SHUDWLRQV 3UR GXFWLRQ 0DQDJHPHQW 9RO ,VV ± /MXQJEHUJ g $WW )|UVWn 7LOOlPSD 730 LQ 6ZHGLVK 1RYXP *UDILVND $% *R WKHQEXUJ 1DNDMLPD 6 $Q ,QWURGXFWLRQ WR 730 3URGXFWLYLW\ 3UHVV 3RUWODQG 25 1RUG & 3HWWHUVVRQ % -RKDQVVRQ % 730 7RWDO 3URGXFWLYH 0DLQWHQDQFH PHG (UIDU HQKHW IUnQ 9ROYR LQ 6ZHGLVK ,GURWWHQV *UDI LVND L *|WHERUJ $% 0|OQO\FNH 3RSRYLü 9 9DVLü % &XURYLü ' )DLOXUH PRGHV HIIHFWV DQG ULVNV DQDO\VLV )0(5$ -RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FL HQFH 3RSRYLü 9 9DVLü % &XURYLü ' $ SRVVLEOH DQVZHU WR WKH TXHVWLRQ :KDW LV DVVHW PDQDJHPHQW" -RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (Q JLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH 6FKPHQQHU 5 : DQG 9ROOPDQQ 7 ( 3HUIRUPDQFH PHDVXUHV JDSV IDOVH DODUPV DQG WKH µXVXDO VXVSHFWV ,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXU QDO RI 2SHUDWLRQV DQG 3URGXFWLRQ 0DQDJH PHQW 9RO 1R 7DMLUL 0 DQG *RWRK ) 730 ,PSOH PHQWDWLRQ $ -DSDQHVH $SSURDFK 0F*UDZ +LOO 1HZ <RUN 1< 3DSHU VHQW WR UHYLVLRQ 3DSHU UHDG\ IRU SXEOLFDWLRQ

-RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH


2ULJLQDO 6FLHQWLILF 3DSHU

GRL MDHV

3DSHU QXPEHU

62/$5 (1(5*< 6<67(06 ,1 7+( 5(&216758&7,21 2) +(5,7$*( +,6725,&$/ %8,/',1*6 2) 7+( 1257+(51 72:16 )25 (;$03/( 6$,17 3(7(56%85*

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o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³&RQYHUVLRQ RI XWLOLW\ WR HOHJDQFH´ LQ WKH ZRUGV RI $ . .UDVRYVN\ 7KHRU\ RI $UFKLWHFWXUH XVX DOO\ IRFXVHV RQ WKH PXWXDO UHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ 6WDWH 3RO\WHFKQLFDO 8QLYHUVLW\ 3ROLWHNKQLFKHVND\D XO 6DLQW 3HWHUVEXUJ 5XVVLD RFWREHU #OLVW UX

EXLOGLQJ FRQVWUXFWLRQV DQG DUFKLWHFWXUDO IRUPV %XW LQ WKH SURFHVV RI DUFKLWHFWXUDO IRUPV GH VLJQ WKH HOHPHQWV WKDW DUH QRW GLUHFWO\ UHODWHG WR WKH VWUXFWXUDO EDVH RI WKH EXLOGLQJ DUH LQFOXGHG WRR 6XVWDLQDEOH ZD\V RI KHDWLQJ YHQWLODWLRQ ZDWHU VXSSO\ DQG VR RQ GLUHFWO\ RU LQGLUHFWO\ DI IHFW WKH DUFKLWHFWXUDO SODQQLQJ ,Q RWKHU ZRUGV WKH ZKROH JDPXW RI WHFKQLFDO PHDQV XVHG LQ WKH FRQVWUXFWLRQ LQGXVWU\ LQ RQH ZD\ RU DQRWKHU DIIHFW WKH SURFHVV RI WKH IRUPV¶ GHVLJQ LQ DUFKL WHFWXUH 7KH SURJUHVV RI FRQWHPSRUDU\ DUFKLWHF WXUH FRQVLVWV QRW RQO\ RI WKH LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI LQQRYDWLYH FRQVWUXFWLRQV VROXWLRQV EXW DOVR WKH LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI WKH ODWHVW IDFLOLW\ IRU WKH RE MHFWV VXSSRUW ZKLFK LQ WXUQ DIIHFW IRUPV¶ GHVLJQ 2QH RI WKH LPSRUWDQW IDFWRUV WKDW DIIHFW WKH VKDSH RI WKH PRGHUQ EXLOGLQJ LV WKH HOH PHQWV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH XVH RI VRODU HQHUJ\ :KHQ LW FRPHV WR UHFRQVWUXFWLRQ RI KLVWRULFDO EXLOGLQJV WKH DUFKLWHFWXUDO GHVLJQ RI WKH HOHPHQWV IRU HQJLQHHULQJ VXSSRUW LV D SDUWLFXODU WDVN > @ $QDO\VLV RI WKH FXUUHQW H[SHULHQFH RI HQHUJ\ HI ILFLHQW PRGHUQL]DWLRQ RI EXLOGLQJV PRQXPHQWV RI KLVWRU\ DQG FXOWXUH EDVHG RQ VRODU HQHUJ\ KDV VKRZQ WKH H[LVWHQFH RI SULQFLSDOO\ GLIIHUHQW DS SURDFKHV > @


9HUD 0XUJXO 6RODU HQHUJ\ V\VWHP LQ WKH UHFRQVWUXFWLRQ RI KHULWDJH KLVWRULFDO EXLOGLQJV RI WKH QRUWKHUQ WRZQV IRU H[HPSOH 6DLQW 3HWHUVEXUJ

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

,Q PRVW FDVHV WKH LQWHUHVWV RI SURWHFWLQJ FXO WXUDO KHULWDJH VLWHV DUH SODFHG DERYH DOO 7HFKQRORJLFDO XSJUDGLQJ RI H[WHUQDO HOHPHQWV RI WKH VWUXFWXUH LQ RUGHU WR SURGXFH DGGLWLRQDO HQ HUJ\ LV VXERUGLQDWH WKH LQWHJUDWLRQ RI WKH HTXLS PHQW LQWR WKH H[WHUQDO HOHPHQWV RI WKH VWUXFWXUH LV GRQH WUDQVSDUHQWO\ +RZHYHU WKHUH DUH JUHDW H[DPSOHV RI ³LGHRORJL FDOO\ DFWLYH´ HQHUJ\ PRGHUQL]DWLRQ RI EXLOGLQJV &RQWHPSRUDU\ HQHUJ\ PRGHUQL]DWLRQ RI XQLTXH REMHFWV PRQXPHQWV RIWHQ FDUULHV WKH JRDO QRW RQO\ WKH WUDQVLWLRQ WR HQHUJ\ VXSSO\ EDVHG RQ UHQHZDEOH VRXUFHV EXW WKH LGHD RI WKH GHF ODUDWLRQ RI SULQFLSOHV RI WKH QHZ HQHUJ\ SROLF\ QHZ LQVLJKWV LQWR WKH SURFHVV RI SURGXFWLRQ DQG FRQVXPSWLRQ RI WKH HQHUJ\ 2QH RI WKH ILUVW PD MRU SURMHFWV LQ WKLV DUHD ZDV WKH SURMHFW RI UHFRQ VWUXFWLQJ WKH 5HLFKVWDJ EXLOGLQJ D PRQXPHQW RI ZRUOG LPSRUWDQFH )LJXUH

)LJXUH 5HLFKVWDJ EXLOGLQJ 3KRWR IURP DQG FRQWHPSRUDU\ ORRN

)LJXUH +HU] -HVX .LUFKHLQ3ODXHQ SKRWRYROWDLF V\VWHPV RQ WKH URRI RI WKH /XWKHUDQ &KXUFK LQ 6D[RQ\

7KLV DUFKLWHFWXUDO PRQXPHQW RI ZRUOG LPSRUWDQFH KDG VLJQLILFDQW H[WHUQDO FKDQJHV 7KLV LV DQ H[ DPSOH RI D IDFLOLW\ JHWWLQJ D QHZ EXW DW WKH VDPH WLPH VWLOO UHFRJQL]DEOH UROH WKH H[SUHVVLRQ RI WKH GRPLQDQW LGHRORJ\ ZKLFK LV QRW WKH SROLF\ RI WKH -RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH


9HUD 0XUJXO 6RODU HQHUJ\ V\VWHP LQ WKH UHFRQVWUXFWLRQ RI KHULWDJH KLVWRULFDO EXLOGLQJV RI WKH QRUWKHUQ WRZQV IRU H[HPSOH 6DLQW 3HWHUVEXUJ

*HUPDQ VWDWH EXW WKH SROLF\ RI JOREDO HQHUJ\ FRQ VXPSWLRQ 5DLVHG GRPH DQG URRI FRYHULQJ DUH XVHG IRU WKH SURGXFWLRQ RI KHDW DQG HOHFWULFDO VRODU HQHUJ\ 6WDLUV DQG YLHZLQJ SODWIRUPV LQVLGH WKH GRPH DUH XVHG WR GHPRQVWUDWH WR YLVLWRUV WKH SURGXFWLRQ RI VRODU HQHUJ\ 5HFRQVWUXFWLRQ RI WKLV PRQXPHQW RI ZRUOG LPSRU WDQFH ZDV FUHDWHG QRW EHFDXVH RI SRZHU VKRUWDJHV LQ %HUOLQ 5HLFKVWDJ KDV DOZD\V EHHQ DQG UHPDLQV D V\PERO RI *HUPDQ VWDWHKRRG DQG QRZ LW FDUULHV WKH LGHD RI D QHZ (XURSHDQ HQHUJ\ SROLF\ 6XPPDUL]LQJ WKH H[LVWLQJ LQWHUQDWLRQDO H[SHULHQFH LQ WKH UHFRQVWUXFWLRQ RI REMHFWV EDVHG RQ WKH XVH RI VRODU HQHUJ\ ZH FDQ VLQJOH RXW WZR EDVLF DS SURDFKHV ©VW\OH GHVLJQª ZKHUH WKH HOHPHQWV RI WKH VR ODU HQHUJ\ VXSSO\ DUH VHW WR D IDFDGH DQG WKH\ GRPLQDWH LQ WKH UHQHZHG DSSHDUDQFH ©FDPRXIODJHª ZKHUH ZH¶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

:KHUH (Lɋɂ WKH GHQVLW\ RI WKH IORZ RI WKH VR ODU UDGLDWLRQ RQ WKH ZRUN VXUIDFH PRGXOHV DFFRUGLQJ WR WKHLU RULHQWDWLRQ LQ VSDFH DQG D WLPH WKH HIILFLHQF\ RI WKH VRODU PRGXOH GHSHQGLQJ RQ WKH WHFKQRORJ\ SURFHVV VWDWHG E\ WKH PDQXIDF WXUHU 6Ɏɗ0 7KH DUHD RI SKRWRYROWDLF PRGXOH LQ DFFRU GDQFH ZLWK LWV VSHFLILFDWLRQV DQG W DQG W GHWHUPLQH WKH WLPH SHULRG IRU WKH FDO FXODWLRQ RI JHQHUDWHG HOHFWULFLW\ 7R GHWHUPLQH WKH HIIHFWLYHQHVV DQG DSSURSULDWH QHVV RI LPSOHPHQWLQJ SKRWRYROWDLF PRGXOHV DQG V\VWHPV RI HQHUJ\ VXSSO\ WR WKHLU EDVH LW LV QHFHV VDU\ WR ILUVW GHWHUPLQH WKH DPRXQW RI VRODU UDGLD WLRQ RULHQWHG RQ WKH VXUIDFH RI PRGXOHV XQGHU UHDO FOLPDWLF FRQGLWLRQV &DOFXODWLRQV > @ JDYH WKH IROORZLQJ UHVXOWV ,QWHJUDO SRZHU YDOXHV RI WKH VRODU UDGLDWLRQ IORZ KLWWLQJ WKH VRXWK RULHQWHG VXUIDFH SHU PRQWK DUH VKRZQ LQ WKH )LJXUH

)LJXUH 7KH *DOOHULD 9LWWRULR (PDQXHOH ,, LQ 0LODQ DQG SHGHVWULDQ VWUHHW LQ 'DUPVWDGW -RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH


9HUD 0XUJXO 6RODU HQHUJ\ V\VWHP LQ WKH UHFRQVWUXFWLRQ RI KHULWDJH KLVWRULFDO EXLOGLQJV RI WKH QRUWKHUQ WRZQV IRU H[HPSOH 6DLQW 3HWHUVEXUJ

)LJXUH $PRXQW RI VRODU HQHUJ\ IORZ SHU PRQWK IRU WKH \HDU DQG IURP $SULO WR 2FWREHU

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‡ LQ PRVW FDVHV FKDQJHV LQ H[WHULRU IDFDGHV DUH QRW DOORZHG 7KH RQO\ H[FHSWLRQ LV WKH OHYHO RI WKH ILUVW IORRU $OVR LW LV LPSRVVLEOH WR FKDQJH WKH FRQILJXUDWLRQ RI H[WHULRU VORSH RI WKH URRI ‡ LQ PRVW FDVHV RYHUODS RI FRXUW\DUG VSDFHV DQG FKDQJLQJ RI FRXUW\DUG IDFDGHV DUH DOORZHG LQFOXGLQJ D FKDQJH RI VORSH RI WKH FRXUW\DUG URRIV 7KXV LQ WHUPV RI RSHUDWLQJ LQ 6W 3HWHUVEXUJ VWDQGDUGV IRU SURWHFWLRQ RI KLVWRULF EXLOGLQJV WKH RSSRUWXQLWLHV WR LQVHUW VRODU FRQYHUWRUV WR WKH H[WHUQDO HOHPHQWV RI EXLOGLQJ FRQVWUXFWLRQ DUH YHU\ OLPLWHG

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


9HUD 0XUJXO 6RODU HQHUJ\ V\VWHP LQ WKH UHFRQVWUXFWLRQ RI KHULWDJH KLVWRULFDO EXLOGLQJV RI WKH QRUWKHUQ WRZQV IRU H[HPSOH 6DLQW 3HWHUVEXUJ

$V DQ H[DPSOH ZH ZLOO FRQVLGHU FRYHULQJ WKH SHGHVWULDQ DUHD FRXUW\DUG H[SDQVH &RQVWUXFWLRQ LV FRYHULQJ VKRSSLQJ DUHDV DQG SHGHVWULDQ VWUHHWV NQRZQ LQ WKH KLVWRU\ RI DUFKL WHFWXUH DQG XUEDQ FRQWHPSRUDU\ SUDFWLFH )LJXUH $ QHZ URXQG RI WHFKQRORJLFDO GHYHORSPHQW FDQ JLYH D QHZ IHDWXUH WR WKH JOD]HG VWUXFWXUHV¶ FRYHU ± WKH IHDWXUH RI HQHUJ\ VXSSO\ )LJXUH

)LJXUH 0RGHO RI WHPSRUDU\ HQHUJ\ VXSSO\LQJ VWUXFWXUH IRU WKH FRYHULQJ RI WKH SHGHVWULDQ ]RQH

)LJXUH 7KH *DOOHULD 9LWWRULR (PDQXHOH ,, LQ 0LODQ DQG SHGHVWULDQ VWUHHW LQ 'DUPVWDGW -RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH

7KH FRQVWUXFWLRQ¶V FRYHUDJH RI WKH FRXUW \DUGV FDQ EH WHPSRUDU\ DV ZHOO DV SHUPDQHQW %XW WKHUH LV DFWXDOO\ DQRWKHU VHDVRQDO YDULDWLRQ WKH\ DUH PRUH EHQHILFLDO LQ WKH ZLQWHU WLPH 7HP


9HUD 0XUJXO 6RODU HQHUJ\ V\VWHP LQ WKH UHFRQVWUXFWLRQ RI KHULWDJH KLVWRULFDO EXLOGLQJV RI WKH QRUWKHUQ WRZQV IRU H[HPSOH 6DLQW 3HWHUVEXUJ

SRUDU\ FRQVWUXFWLRQV RI FRXUW\DUG FRYHULQJ UDLVHG RQ DQ H[SHULPHQWDO EDVLV DIWHUZDUGV FRXOG EH FRPH SHUPDQHQW 7KH ILJXUH DQG VKRZV WKH FRQVWUXFWLRQ¶V FRYHUDJH RI WKH PRGHOV SURYLGLQJ FRYHUDJH RI WKH FRXUW\DUG VSDFH RQ WKH EDVLV RI 39 PRGXOHV DQG OLJKWLQJ V\VWHPV

)LJXUH 3RVVLELOLW\ RI XVLQJ WHPSRUDU\ HQHUJ\ VXSSO\LQJ V\VWHPV LQ WKH EXLOGLQJV RI HPSW\ ORWV )LJXUH IURP > @

)LJXUH 0RGHO RI WHPSRUDU\ HQHUJ\ VXSSO\LQJ VWUXFWXUH IRU SURYLGLQJ FRYHUDJH RI WKH FRXUW\DUG VSDFH RQ WKH EDVLV RI 39 PRGXOHV DQG OLJKWLQJ V\VWHPV

)LJXUH 0RGHO RI WHPSRUDU\ HQHUJ\ VXSSO\LQJ VWUXFWXUH IRU SURYLGLQJ FRYHUDJH RI WKH FRXUW\DUG VSDFH RQ WKH EDVLV RI 39 PRGXOHV DQG OLJKWLQJ V\VWHPV

,Q WKH URZ RI KLVWRULF EXLOGLQJV LW FDQ EH DSSOLHG E\ EXLOG RQ WKH HPSW\ ODQG JDSV )LJXUH 7KH FRQVWUXFWLRQ¶V FRYHUDJH RI WKH PRGHOV SURYLGLQJ FRYHUDJH RI WKH FRXUW\DUG VSDFH RQ WKH EDVLV RI 39 PRGXOHV DQG OLJKWLQJ V\VWHPV 7HPSRUDULO\ ILOOLQJ WKH JDS¶V VSDFH ZLWK JODVV ³LQ VHUWHG EXLOGLQJV´ RQ WKH EDVLV RI PRXQWLQJ DQG WUDQVIRUPLQJ HQHUJ\ VXSSO\LQJ VWUXFWXUHV KDV D VHYHUDO SRWHQWLDO DGYDQWDJHV SURGXFWLRQ RI HOHFWULF DQG WKHUPDO HQHUJ\ EDVHG RQ VRODU HQHUJ\ DGGLWLRQDO IXQFWLRQDO DUHDV LQ WKH FLW\ FHQWHU RSSRUWXQLW\ DW DQ\ WLPH WR UHYLVH WKH DUFKLWHFWXUDO GHFLVLRQV DQG LI QHFHVVDU\ UH WXUQ JDSV WR WKH RULJLQDO VWDWH IRU LWV FDSLWDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ

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³JUHHQ´ HQHUJ\ DQG FRPPLWPHQW WR WKH SULQFLSOHV RI VXVWDLQDEOH GHYHORSPHQW SRVVLELOLW\ RI VHDVRQDO H[SORLWDWLRQ LQFOXGLQJ VHDVRQDO IOXFWXDWLRQV LQ VRODU UDGLDWLRQ FUHDWLRQ RI DGGLWLRQDO WHPSRUDU\ VSDFHV LQ WKH GRZQWRZQ IDFDGH SURWHFWLRQ IURP WKH DJJUHVVLYH LQIOXHQFH RI HQYLURQPHQW HDVLQHVV RI WHFKQLFDO UHFRYHU\ WKH SRVVLELOLW\ RI D TXLFN GLVPDQWOLQJ DQG UHWXUQ WR WKH RULJLQDO VWDWH RI WKH EXLOGLQJ ZLWKRXW FRPSURPLVLQJ FDSLWDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ -RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH


9HUD 0XUJXO 6RODU HQHUJ\ V\VWHP LQ WKH UHFRQVWUXFWLRQ RI KHULWDJH KLVWRULFDO EXLOGLQJV RI WKH QRUWKHUQ WRZQV IRU H[HPSOH 6DLQW 3HWHUVEXUJ

6W 3HWHUVEXUJ VWUDWHJ\ RI SUHVHUYLQJ FXOWXUDO KHULWDJH GHILQHV WKH PDLQ SULRULWLHV HOLJLELOLW\ FULWHULD DQG DUHDV RI SURWHFWLRQ E\ ³FRQVHUYD WLRQ WKURXJK GHYHORSPHQW GHYHORSPHQW WKURXJK FRQVHUYDWLRQª $FFHOHUDWLQJ WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI VFLHQWLILF WHFKQLFDO SURJUHVV UHFRJQLWLRQ RI WKH UHDOLW\ RI JOREDO FOLPDWH FKDQJH WKH RYHUDOO G\QDP LFV RI VRFLDO GHYHORSPHQW HQWDLOV FKDQJHV LQ DOO VSKHUHV RI KXPDQ DFWLYLW\ LQFOXGLQJ WKH DUFKLWHF WXUH DQG LQ SDUWLFXODU LQ WKH HQHUJ\ VXSSO\ ZKLFK LV VKRZLQJ DQ LPSDFW RQ WKH DUFKLWHFWXUH &XUUHQWO\ WKH DUFKLWHFWXUDO SUDFWLFH KDV GHYHO RSHG WKH FRQFHSW RI ³SDVVLYH VRODU EXLOGLQJ GH VLJQ´ ,Q IDFW LW FRPHV WR PDQDJLQJ KHDW IORZ E\ PHDQV RI DUFKLWHFWXUDO GHVLJQ /RJLF RI DUFKLWHF WXUDO GHVLJQ FRPHV IURP WKH IRUPDWLRQ DQG PRYH PHQW RI KHDW IOX[HV $UFKLWHFWXUH RI WKH EXLOGLQJV EDVHG RQ WKH SULQFLSOHV RI ³SDVVLYH GHVLJQ´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³3DVVLYH +RXVH´ ©3DVVLYKDXVª *ODVV LV D YHU\ ³JHQHURXV´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³WKH KDUPRQ\ LQ FRQWUDVW´ PD\ EHFRPH DQ LQWHUHVWLQJ DUFKLWHFWXUDO VROXWLRQ -RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH

8VH RI D WKHUPDO V\VWHP IRU WKH EXLOGLQJV RI UHFRQVWUXFWHG KLVWRULF XUEDQ DUHDV LV SUREOHPDW LF LQ HYHQ D JUHDWHU H[WHQW WKDQ WKH XVH RI SKR WRYROWDLF ,QGHHG ZKDWHYHU H[DPSOH ZH KDYH GLVFXVVHG JODVV FHLOLQJV DUH SOD\LQJ WKH UROH DV D WKHUPDO VRODU V\VWHP RU WKH\ DUH WKH IRFXV RI WKH IDFDGH RU EDVLF DUFKLWHFWXUDO FRQFHSW RI WKH EXLOGLQJ $QG ZKHQ LW FRPHV WR UHPRGHOLQJ DQG UHVWRUD WLRQ RI KLVWRULF EXLOGLQJV ³KLGLQJ´ WKHVH V\VWHPV LV SUDFWLFDOO\ LPSRVVLEOH $QG LI WKH LQWHJUDWLRQ RI VRODU WKHUPDO V\VWHPV LQ WKH KLVWRULF DSSHDUDQFH RI WKH EXLOGLQJ LV H[ WUHPHO\ SDLQIXO DQG GLIILFXOW LW PDNHV VHQVH WR LQLWLDOO\ DEDQGRQ WKLV LGHD DQG FRQVLGHU WKHP DV VHSDUDWH YROXPHV ZLWK WKHLU RZQ EDVLV RI IRUP GHVLJQ ZKLFK GHWHUPLQH WKH HQHUJ\ HIILFLHQF\ RI WKHLU SURSHUWLHV ,QILQLWHO\ ³DGMXVWLQJ´ LQ SULQFLSOH QRW YHU\ FRP SDWLEOH V\VWHPV LV FRPSOH[ WR UHVROYH DQG WR WKH GHWULPHQW ERWK RI WKHP 8VH RI WKHUPDO VRODU V\VWHPV JOD]HG VXUIDFHV XS JUDGH WR D JUHDWHU H[WHQW WKDQ SKRWRYROWDLF LQFOLQHV WRZDUG WKH SULQFLSOH RI WHPSRUDU\ PRXQWLQJ VWUXFWXUHV 6HSDUDWLRQ RI WKH ³ODWHVW´ SDUW ZLOO SURYLGH WKH RSSRUWX QLW\ WR UHWXUQ WR WKH KLVWRULF DSSHDUDQFH RI WKH EXLOGLQJ DW DQ\ WLPH DQG WKH RULJLQDO ³LQWHJULW\´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

%XLOGLQJ LQGHSHQGHQW WHPSRUDU\ SKRWRYROWD LFV FRQVWUXFWLRQV %,739& $OVR ZRUWK QRWLQJ LV WKDW WKH WHPSRUDU\ HQHUJ\ VXSSO\ VWUXFWXUH FDQ EH VDWXUDWHG ZLWK 39 HOH PHQWV DQG DOVR ZLWK WKHUPDO DQG K\EULG VRODU V\VWHPV


9HUD 0XUJXO 6RODU HQHUJ\ V\VWHP LQ WKH UHFRQVWUXFWLRQ RI KHULWDJH KLVWRULFDO EXLOGLQJV RI WKH QRUWKHUQ WRZQV IRU H[HPSOH 6DLQW 3HWHUVEXUJ

6SHDNLQJ RI VRODU HQHUJ\ VXSSO\ IDFLOLWLHV ZH FDQ VDIHO\ FDOO WKH XVH RI VRODU HQHUJ\ DV IRUP GHVLJQ IDFWRU LQ DUFKLWHFWXUH +DUPRQLRXV LQWHJUDWLRQ RI VRODU HQHUJ\ WHFKQRORJLHV LQ DUFKLWHFWXUH RI XU EDQ KLVWRULF HQYLURQPHQW D WDVN RI DUFKLWHFWXUDO DGDSWDWLRQ LV LPSRUWDQW DQG UHOHYDQW 6W 3HWHUVEXUJ LV DQ LQWHJUDO SDUW RI 5XVVLD¶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± *DEUL\HO , /DGHQHU .K 5HNRQ VWUXNWVL\D]GDQL\SRVWDQGDUWDPHQHUJRHIIHN WLYQRJRGRPD 6W 3HWHUVEXUJ %.K9 3HWHU EXUJ 0RVFKHOOD $ 6DOHPL $ /R )DUR $ 6DQILOLS SR * 'HWRPPDVR 0 3ULYLWHUD $ +LVWRULF %XLOGLQJV LQ 0HGLWHUUDQHDQ $UHD DQG 6RODU 7KHUPDO 7HFKQRORJLHV $UFKLWHFWXUDO ,QWHJUDWLRQ YV 3UHVHUYDWLRQ &ULWHULD (QHUJ\ 3URFHGLD 9RO 3S ± 0XUJXO 9 )HDWXUHV RI HQHUJ\ HIIL FLHQW XSJUDGH RI KLVWRULF EXLOGLQJV LOOXVWUDWHG ZLWK WKH H[DPSOH RI 6DLQW 3HWHUVEXUJ -RXU QDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH 9RO Ê‹ SS 0XUJXO 9 6RODU HQHUJ\ LQ WKH UH FRQVWUXFWLRQ RI XUEDQ HQYLURQPHQW RI KLVWRULF

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Ê‹ SS 1RUWRQ % (DPHV 3 & 0DOOLFN 7 . +XDQJ 0 - 0F&RUPDFN 6 - (QKDQFLQJ WKH SHUIRUPDQFH RI EXLOGLQJ LQWHJUDWHG SKRWRYROWD LFV 6RODU (QHUJ\ 9RO SS ± KWWS ZZZ RSXV DUFKLWHNWHQ GH LQKDOW RSXV$U FKLWHNWHQ KWP UHWULHYHG RQ -DQXDU\ WK 3DYOLFLF 1 3HUD]LF 0 'MXULF -RFLF ' .QH ]HYLF 0 (QJLQHHULQJ HGXFDWLRQ LQ WKH ILHOG RI FLYLO HQJLQHHULQJ -RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (Q JLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH 9RO Ê‹ SS 3ROR /ySH] & 6 )URQWLQL ) (QHUJ\ HIILFLHQF\ DQG UHQHZDEOH VRODU HQHUJ\ LQWH JUDWLRQ LQ KHULWDJH KLVWRULF EXLOGLQJV (QHUJ\ 3URFHGLD 9RO SS ± 6FKHHU + 6RODU HQHUJ\¶V HFRQRPLF DQG VRFLDO EHQHILWV 6RODU (QHUJ\ 0DWHUL DOV DQG 6RODU &HOOV 9RO ,VVXHV ± SS ± 6LEOH\ 0 6LEOH\ 0DU +\EULG *UHHQ 7HFKQRORJLHV IRU 5HWURILWWLQJ +HULWDJH %XLOG LQJV LQ 1RUWK $IULFDQ 0HGLQDV &RPELQLQJ 9HUQDFXODU DQG +LJK WHFK 6ROXWLRQV IRU DQ ,Q QRYDWLYH 6RODU 3RZHUHG /LJKWLQJ 6\VWHP IRU +DPPDP %XLOGLQJV (QHUJ\ 3URFHGLD 9RO SS ± 6R]HU + (OQLPHLUL 0 &ULWLFDO IDFWRUV LQ UHGXFLQJ WKH FRVW RI EXLOGLQJ LQWHJUDWHG SKRWRYROWDLF %,39 V\VWHPV $UFKLWHFWXUDO 6FLHQFH 5HYLHZ 9RO SS ± :RQJ / 7 &KRZ : . 6RODU UDGLDWLRQ PRGHO $SSOLHG (QHUJ\ 9RO SS 3DSHU VHQW WR UHYLVLRQ 3DSHU UHDG\ IRU SXEOLFDWLRQ

-RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH


2ULJLQDO 6FLHQWLILF 3DSHU

GRL MDHV

3DSHU QXPEHU

$'9$1&(' 6758&785$/ 7(67,1* 0(7+2'6 )25 60$// :,1' 785%,1(6 %/$'( 83 72 )$,/85( 'U ýDVODY 0LWURYLü )DFXOW\ RI 0HFKDQLFDO (QJLQHHULQJ %HOJUDGH 6HUELD 'U *RUDQ 9RURWRYLü )DFXOW\ RI 0HFKDQLFDO (QJLQHHULQJ %HOJUDGH 6HUELD 'U 1HERMãD 3HWURYLü )DFXOW\ RI 0HFKDQLFDO (QJLQHHULQJ %HOJUDGH 6HUELD 'UDJDQ 6WDPHQNRYLü )DFXOW\ RI 0HFKDQLFDO (QJLQHHULQJ %HOJUDGH 6HUELD 6YHWODQD 6WRMLOMNRYLü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

)LJXUH 5HSUHVHQWDWLYH VL]H KHLJKW DQG GLDPHWHU RI ZLQG WXUELQHV )DFXOW\ RI 0HFKDQLFDO (QJLQHHULQJ .UDOMLFH 0DULMH %HOJUDGH 6HUELD FPLWURYLF#PDV EJ DF UV

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


'U ýDVODY 0LWURYLü $GYDQFHG VWUXFWXUDO WHVWLQJ PHWKRGV IRU VPDOO ZLQG WXUELQHV EODGH XS WR IDLOXUH

)LJXUH :RUOG FXPXODWLYH LQVWDOOHG SRZHU FDSDFLW\

/LNH WKH 0: WXUELQH VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH > @ PRVW WXUELQHV KDYH D KRUL]RQWDOO\ PRXQWHG KXE ZLWK WZR RU WKUHH EODGHV $V WKH EODGHV EHFRPH ORQJHU WR FDSWXUH PRUH SRZHU WKH VWDWLF DQG G\ QDPLF ORDGV RQ WKH EODGHV DQG RWKHU FRPSRQHQWV LQFUHDVH ,Q JHQHUDO D EODGH IRU D 0: WXU ELQH LV PHWHUV LQ OHQJWK RU JUHDWHU DQG ZHLJKV DV PXFK DV .J OEV > @

GHVLJQHG VHUYLFH OLIH ,Q RWKHU ZRUGV WKH EODGH VKRXOG QRW IDLO EHIRUH WKH HQG RI LWV H[SHFWHG VHU YLFH OLIH 7HVWLQJ RI WKH EODGHV VWDWLFDOO\ DQG G\ QDPLFDOO\ KHOSV LQ LPSURYLQJ WKH GHVLJQV DQG WKH PDQXIDFWXULQJ SURFHVVHV ZKLFK IXUWKHU KHOSV LQ SURJUHVV RI WKH ZLQG LQGXVWU\ DV D ZKROH ,Q ILHOG WKH EODGHV DUH W\SLFDOO\ VXEMHFWHG WR QRUPDO RSHUDWLQJ FRQGLWLRQV RQO\ 6XFK WHVWLQJ GRHV QRW HQVXUH WKDW WKH EODGH FDQ ZLWKVWDQG H[WUHPH RS HUDWLQJ FRQGLWLRQV %/$'( : 5%96 7KH SXUSRVH RI WKLV UHVHDUFK LV WR WHVW WKH HV WDEOLVKHG WHFKQRORJ\ RI GHVLJQLQJ WKH FRPSRVLWH URWRU EODGH : 5%96 RI ZLQG WXUELQH 6FLURFFR 6FLURFFR LV D P GLDPHWHU URWRU N: RXWSXW SURIHVVLRQDO VFDOH ZLQG WXUELQH LGHDO IRU UHPRWH VLWHV ZLWK PHGLXP SRZHU QHHGV VXFK DV VPDOO IDUPV KRXVHV RU ODUJH KRPHVWHDGV DQG HVSH FLDOO\ UXUDO RU YLOODJH HOHFWULILFDWLRQ VHD ZDWHU GH VDOLQDWLRQ GLUHFW HOHFWULFDO ZDWHU UXQ RI WKH ZLQG SXPSLQJ 7KLV ZLQG WXUELQH LV FRPPRQ SUDFWLFH DQG EXLOW LQ VHYHUDO FRXQWULHV LQ (XURSH DQG $PHULFD )LJXUHV DQG > @

)LJXUH 7\SLFDO ZLQG WXUELQHV

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

)LJXUH :LQG WXUELQH (ROWHF 6FLURFFR

-RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH


'U DVODY 0LWURYL $GYDQFHG VWUXFWXUDO WHVWLQJ PHWKRGVI IRU VPDOO ZLQG WXUELQHV EODGH XS WR IDLOXUH

8QOLNH PRVW RI LWV FRPSHWLWRUV ZKLFK XVH IXUO LQJ WHFKQLTXH WR GHFUHDVH DFTXLVLWLRQ FRVW DW WKH GHWULPHQW RI SHUIRUPDQFHV DQG UHOLDELOLW\ 6FLURF FR :7 LV GHVLJQHG DQG UHDOL]HG ZLWKRXW FRPSUR PLVH XVLQJ VWDWH RI WKH DUW FRPSRQHQWV FHQWULI

XJDO SLWFK RYHUVSHHG UHJXODWLRQ GHYLFH VOHZLQJ ULQJV IRU EODGHV DWWDFKPHQW DQG \DZLQJ VHDOHG GLUHFW GULYH SHUPDQHQW PDJQHW JHQHUD WRU 'HVLJQ DQG FDOFXODWLRQV KDYH EHHQ PDGH DF FRUGLQJ ZLWK ,(& GHVLJQ UXOHV > @

)LJXUH 3RZHU &XUYH 3RZHU &RHIILFLHQW DW 6HD /HYHO $LU 'HQVLW\ RI >NJ Pñ@ > @

6FLURFFR LV FKDUDFWHUL]HG E\ ORZ URWDWLRQ VSHHG D YHU\ KLJK HIILFLHQF\ PRUH SDUWLFXODUO\ LQ WKH ORZHU WR PHGLXP ZLQG VSHHG UDQJH ZKLFK LV SUH YDLOLQJ PRVW RI WKH WLPH 7KLV LV WKH UHVXOW RI WKH FRQMXQFWLRQ RI DQ RSWLPL]HG EODGHV URWRU DQ HIILFLHQW GLUHFW GULYH 30 JHQHUDWRU DQG YDULDEOH VSHHG PDQDJHPHQW FRPELQHG ZLWK WKH PD[LPDO SRZHU SRLQW WUDFNLQJ FRQWURO IROORZLQJ WKH FRQ VWDQWO\ YDU\LQJ ZLQG VSHHG &RPSRVLWH URWRU EODGHV : 5%96 DUH SURGXFHG LQ WKH :,1* G R R FRPSDQ\ )LJXUH > @

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

)LJXUH (ROWHF 6FLURFFR ZLQG WXUELQH DORQJ WKH KLJKZD\ LQ )UDQFH

7KH GHVLJQ RI URWRU EODGHV LV EDODQFHG LQWHJUDWLRQ RI DHURG\QDPLF VWUXFWXUDO DQDO\VLV DQG G\QDP -RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH

)LJXUH 'HVLJQ RI FRPSRVLWH EODGHV : 5%96


'U DVODY 0LWURYL $GYDQFHG VWUXFWXUDO WHVWLQJ PHWKRGV IRU VPDOO ZLQG WXUELQHV EODGH XS WR IDLOXUH

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¶V DELOLW\ WR ZLWKVWDQG H[WUHPH ORDGV VXFK DV WKRVH FDXVHG E\ KXUULFDQH ZLQG IRUFHV RU XQ XVXDO WUDQVLHQW FRQGLWLRQV LQ RUGHU WR GHWHUPLQH WKH XOWLPDWH VWUHQJWK RI WKH EODGH 6WDWLF WHVWLQJ LV DFFRPSOLVKHG LQ D QXPEHU RI ZD\V 7KH PRVW FRPPRQ RI WKHVH XVHV HOHFWULF ZLQFK V\VWHP GXH WR HDVH RI FRQWUROOLQJ LW

)LJXUH 6WDWLF VLVWHP IRU IRUFH GLVWULEXWLRQ

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


'U DVODY 0LWURYL $GYDQFHG VWUXFWXUDO WHVWLQJ PHWKRGVI IRU VPDOO ZLQG WXUELQHV EODGH XS WR IDLOXUH

0($685,1* (48,30(17 7KH FHQWUDO DFTXLVLWLRQ XQLW +%0 63,'(5 UHSUH VHQWV D PXOWLIXQFWLRQDO PRGHO RI UHFHLYLQJ DQDORJXH DQG GLJLWDO VLJQDOV ZLWK SDUDOOHO WUDFLQJ WKH IORZ RI LQSXW XQLWV E\ PHDQV RI LQWHJUDWHG PLFURFRPSXWHU XVLQJ KLJKHU OHYHO V\VWHP WR UHOLHYH WKH DFTXLVLWLRQ URXWH DQG SURYLGLQJ WKH IORZ RI VLJQDOV IURP FHUWDLQ ³VPDUW VHQVRUV´ GLUHFWO\ WR WKH FRQWURO XQLW )LJXUH ,QGXFWLYH GLVSODFHPHQW VHQVRU /9'7 +%0

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“ DQG PHDVXULQJ VFDOH IURP “ WR “ PP 0HDVXU LQJ LV SHUIRUPHG FRQVLGHULQJ IRXU GLIIHUHQW VSRWV

)LJXUH 7ZR PRGXOHV RI 63,'(5 -RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH

D

E

F

)LJXUH )RUFH VHQVRU D VFKHPH E RQ WKH EODGH F SRVLWLRQLQJ RQ WKH EODGH


'U DVODY 0LWURYL $GYDQFHG VWUXFWXUDO WHVWLQJ PHWKRGV IRU VPDOO ZLQG WXUELQHV EODGH XS WR IDLOXUH

(DFK RI WKH IRUFH VHQVRUV LV FRQQHFWHG WR 9LWVWRQ IXOO PHDVXULQJ EULGJH 7KH PHDVXULQJ EULGJH LV VXSSOLHG ZLWK GLUHFW LQSXW YROWDJH 9, ZKLOH RXWSXW YROWDJH 92 GHSHQGV RQ UHVLVWDQFH FKDQJH RI WKH PHDVXULQJ WDSHV 5 5 5 DQG 5 FDXVHG E\ WKHLU GHIRUPDWLRQV DQG LW LV SURSRUWLRQDO WR D[LDO IRUFH YDOXH WKDW LQIOXHQFHV WKH VHQVRU 7KH PHWKRG RI ERQGLQJ WKH PHDVXULQJ WDSHV LQWR PHDVXULQJ

EULGJH SURYLGHV DERYH PHQWLRQHG FRPSHQVDWLRQ RI EHQGLQJ PRPHQW LQIOXHQFHV RQ WKH RXWSXW YROWDJH ,QWURGXFLQJ IRUFH LV SHUIRUPHG E\ PHDQV RI VSH FLDOO\ PDGH V\VWHP WKDW FRQVLVWV RI VXSSRUWLQJ VWUXFWXUH SXOOH\ UHGXFWRU XQLW DQG HQJLQH ZLWK IUH TXHQW FRQWURO 7KH PD[LPXP IRUFH SRVVLEOH WKDW FDQ EH DFKLHYHG ZLWK WKLV V\VWHP LV GD1

)LJXUH &RQVWUXFWLRQ IRU IRUFH GLVWULEXWLRQ

5($/,=$7,21 2) 7+( (;3(5,0(17 7KH URWRU EODGH LV ORDGHG LQ VL[ VHFWLRQV E\ O\UDV DQG PHDVXUHG IURP WKH SODFH RI WKH EODGH FODPS 7KH URWRU EODGH PDVV LV NJ 7DEOH 'LVWDQFH IURP WKH SODFH RI EODGH FODPS 6HFWLRQ

'LVWDQFH PP

)LJXUH /\UHV IRU WKH LQWURGXFWLRQ IRUFH

7KH H[SHULPHQW LV SHUIRUPHG LQ WKH DFFRUGDQFH ZLWK ,(& VWDQGDUG 7KH URWRU EODGH IDLO XUH LV PDUNHG ZLWK WKH UHVXOWLQJ IRUFH RI /HDGLQJ HGJH

%HJLQQLQJ

(QG

GD1 XQGHU PD[LPXP GHIOHFWLRQ RI PP $IWHU WKH WHVWLQJ LV FRPSOHWHG VRPH VHSDUDWLRQV DUH UHFRUGHG RQ WKH IROORZLQJ GLVWDQFHV PP 7UDLOLQJ HGJH

%HJLQQLQJ

(QG

-RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH


'U DVODY 0LWURYL $GYDQFHG VWUXFWXUDO WHVWLQJ PHWKRGVI IRU VPDOO ZLQG WXUELQHV EODGH XS WR IDLOXUH

)LJXUH 7KH SRVLWLRQ RI WKH EODGHIUDFWXUH

)LJXUH 7KH ORDG GLVWULEXWLRQ RI HDFK VHFWLRQ LQ IXQFWLRQ RI WLPH > @

)LJXUH 7KH UHVXOWLQJ IRUFH GLVWULEXWLRQ LQ IXQFWLRQ RI WLPH > @

&21&/86,21 7KLV H[SHULPHQW FRQILUPHG WKDW WKH ZLQG WXUELQH EODGH : 5%96 KDV YHU\ KLJK ULJLGLW\

-RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH

$&.12:/('*0(176 7KLV UHVHDUFK ZDV VXSSRUWHG E\ WKH 0LQLVWU\ RI 6FLHQFH DQG 7HFKQRORJLFDO 'HYHORSPHQW 5H SXEOLF RI 6HUELD ± SURMHFWV 75 75


ýDVODY 0LWURYLü $GYDQFHG VWUXFWXUDO WHVWLQJ PHWKRGV IRU VPDOO ZLQG WXUELQHV EODGH XS WR IDLOXUH

5()(5(1&(6 & 0LWURYLF 1 3HWURYLF ' %HNULF $ %HQJLQ % 5DNLFHYLF ³0LFUR 6WUXFWXUH &KDUDFWHUL]D WLRQ RI &RPSRVLWH :LQG 7XUELQH %ODGH )RO ORZLQJ 6WUXFWXUDO 7HVWLQJ ³ :XOIHQLD -RXUQDO 9RO 1R )HE ,661 ; & 0LWURYLF 1 3HWURYLF ' %HNULF 9 'UDJRYLF , 0LOHXVQLF ³&KDUDFWHUL]DWLRQ RI 0LFUR VWUXF WXUHV RI &RPSRVLWH RI 6PDOO :LQG 7XUELQH %ODGH IROORZLQJ 6WUXFWXUDO 7HVWLQJ XS WR )DLO XUH ³ 7KH WK ,QWHUQDWLRQDO &RQIHUHQFH $G YDQFHG &RPSRVLWH 0DWHULDOV (QJLQHHULQJ &20$7 2FWREHU %UDVRY 5RPDQLD & 0LWURYLF 1 3HWURYLF $ %HQJLQ ' %HNULF 9 'UDJRYLF $ 6LPRQRYLF * 9RURWRYLF 6 5DGRMHYLF ' 6WDPHQNRYLF ³6WUXFWXUDO 7HVW LQJ RI 6PDOO :LQG 7XUELQH %ODGH XS WR )DLO XUH³ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO &RQIHUHQFH RQ ,QQRYDWLYH 7HFKQRORJLHV &RQIHUHQFH ,1 7(&+ %UDWLVODYD & 0LWURYLF 1 3HWURYLF ' %HNULF $ %HQJLQ % 5DNLFHYLF 0LFUR 6WUXFWXUH &KDUDFWHUL]D WLRQ RI &RPSRVLWH :LQG 7XUELQH %ODGH )RO ORZLQJ 6WUXFWXUDO 7HVWLQJ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXU QDO RI (QJLQHHULQJ 7HFKQRORJ\ ,-(7 ,-(16 9RO 1R ,QWHUQDWLRQDO VWDQGDUG ,(& :LQG WXUELQHV ± 3DUW 'HVLJQ UHTXLUHPHQWV 6ZLW ]HUODQG

,QWHUQDWLRQDO VWDQGDUG ,(& :LQG WXUELQHV ± 3DUW 'HVLJQ UHTXLUHPHQWV IRU VPDOO ZLQG WXUELQHV 6ZLW]HUODQG 1 <DK\D 0 .DVKLI + 'DXG + 0RKG =DLG $ 6KDILH 1 1DVLU $ 6HH )DEULFDWLRQ DQG &KDUDFWHUL]DWLRQ RI < ;/D;)H 2 39$ &RPSRVLWH DV (0 :DYHV 'HWHFWRU ,QWHUQD WLRQDO -RXUQDO RI %DVLF $SSOLHG 6FLHQFHV ,-%$6 ,-(16 9RO 1R SDJHV 3DQWHOLV % .RQVWDQWLQLGLV ( 3LWVD ' Ä6\VWHPLF DVVHVVPHQW DQG DQDO\ VLV RI IDFWRUV DIIHFW WKH UHOLDELOLW\ RI D ZLQG WXUELQH´ -RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FL HQFH ,VWUDÃ¥LYDQMD L SURMHNWRYDQMD ]D SULYUH GX 1R 9RO SS 3XQHHW 0DOKRWUD ³$GYDQFHG %ODGH 7HVWLQJ 0HWKRGV IRU :LQG 7XUELQHV´ 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 0DVVDFKXVHWWV $PKHUVW 0DVWHUV 7KHVHV 3DSHU 5 %DFNHUV (ROWHF 6KLURFFR ( ,QVWDODWLRQ 0DLQWDQHQFH 0DQXDO 6RODFLW\ ,QF 3DSHU VHQW WR UHYLVLRQ 3DSHU UHDG\ IRU SXEOLFDWLRQ

-RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH


2ULJLQDO 6FLHQWLILF 3DSHU

GRL MDHV

3DSHU QXPEHU

5,6. =21,1* ,1 7+( &217(;7 2) ,1685$1&( &203$5,621 2) )/22' 612: /2$' :,1'67250 $1' +$,/67250 'U 7RPDV +DQDN )DFXOW\ RI &LYLO (QJLQHHULQJ %UQR &]HFK 5HSXEOLF -DQD .RU\WDURYD )DFXOW\ RI &LYLO (QJLQHHULQJ %UQR &]HFK 5HSXEOLF 1DWXUDO GLVDVWHUV PD\ KDYH D FDWDVWURSKLF LPSDFW RQ WKH OLYHV RI SHRSOH FRPSDQ\ RSHUDWLRQV DQG SURSHUW\ 7KH LPSDFWV RI WKHVH GLVDVWHUV IDOO LQWR WKH FDWHJRU\ RI QDWXUDO KD]DUGV DQG EHORQJ WR VWDQ GDUG LQVXUDQFH SROLFLHV KRZHYHU WKH\ DUH SUREOHPDWLF IURP WKH SRLQW RI YLHZ RI WKH YDU\LQJ GHJUHH RI ULVN IDFLQJ WKH LQVXUHG REMHFWV LQ GLIIHUHQW ORFDWLRQV 7KH REMHFWLYH RI WKLV SDSHU LV WR GLVFXVV DQG DVVHVV WKH SRWHQWLDO RI DSSO\LQJ ULVNV ]RQLQJ WR WKH &]HFK 5HSXEOLF RQ WKH H[DPSOHV RI WKH VHOHFWHG QDWXUDO KD]DUGV RI IORRGV VQRZ ORDG ZLQGVWRUP DQG KDLOVWRUP 7KH DVVHVVPHQW LV FRQGXFWHG XV LQJ DYDLODEOH VWDWLVWLFDO GDWD DQG D VHYHULW\ LQGH[ ,W LV FRQFOXGHG WKDW DIWHU WKH IORRG KD]DUG LW LV WKH FRPELQHG ULVN RI ZLQGVWRUP DQG KDLOVWRUP ZKLFK KDV WKH ELJJHVW SRWHQWLDO IRU WKH LQWURGXFWLRQ RI ULVN ]RQLQJ IRU LQVXUDQFH SXUSRVHV .H\ ZRUGV )ORRG ,QVXUDQFH 5LVN 6QRZ ORDG :LQGVWRUP =RQH ,1752'8&7,21 7KH DGYHUVH LPSDFW RI QDWXUDO SKHQRPHQD UHS UHVHQWV D VLJQLILFDQW WKUHDW WR ERWK SULYDWH DQG SXEOLF SURSHUW\ DV ZHOO DV WKH OLYHV DQG KHDOWK RI LQGLYLGXDOV 1DWXUDO GLVDVWHUV RI DQ H[WUHPH VFDOH EULQJ DERXW HQRUPRXV GDPDJH WR ERWK SHUVRQDO DQG UHDO SURSHUW\ HVSHFLDOO\ VLJQLIL FDQW LV WKH GDPDJH RU GHVWUXFWLRQ RI UHVLGHQWLDO EXLOGLQJV SURGXFWLRQ IDFLOLWLHV RU WHFKQLFDO DQG WUDQVSRUW LQIUDVWUXFWXUH )URP WKH SHUVSHFWLYH RI WKH LQVXUDQFH FRPSDQLHV WKH DGMXVWPHQW RI FODLPV DULVLQJ IURP QDWXUDO GLVDVWHUV QRWLFHDEO\ GLVWXUEV WKHLU ILQDQFLDO EDODQFH DV WKH LQVXUDQFH EHQHILW FODLPV DUH RIWHQ PDUNHGO\ KLJKHU LQ WKH VKRUW WHUP WKDQ WKH YROXPH RI SDLG SUHPLXPV $W WKH VDPH WLPH WKHUH LV D ODFN RI FODLP DGMXVWHUV DV WKH LQVXUDQFH FRPSDQLHV KDYH WR UHVROYH D ODUJH QXPEHU RI ORVV HYHQWV LQ D YHU\ VKRUW SH ULRG )URP WKLV SHUVSHFWLYH LW VHHPV GHVLUDEOH WR GLVFXVV WKH LQWURGXFWLRQ RI ULVN ]RQHV ZKLFK ZRXOG WDNH LQWR DFFRXQW WKH H[WHQW RI WKH VSHFLILF QDWXUDO KD]DUG LQ D JLYHQ ORFDOLW\ DQG WKXV MXVWLI\ WKH QHHG IRU D KLJKHU SUHPLXP LQ WKRVH DUHDV ZKHUH WKH ULVN LV UHDOLVHG PRUH RIWHQ DQG ZKHUH WKH LQVXUDQFH EHQHILWV PXVW EH WKHUHIRUH DOVR SDLG PRUH RIWHQ 7KH REMHFWLYH RI WKLV SDSHU LV WR GLVFXVV DQG DV VHVV WKH SRWHQWLDO RI DSSO\LQJ ULVNV ]RQLQJ WR WKH )DFXOW\ RI &LYLO (QJLQHHULQJ $QWRQtQVNi %UQR &]HFK 5HSXEOLF KDQDN W#IFH YXWEU F]

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


'U 7RPDV +DQDN 5LVN ]RQLQJ LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI LQVXUDQFH FRPSDULVRQ RI IORRG VQRZ ORDG ZLQGVWRUP DQG KDLOVWRUP

RI SDLG LQVXUDQFH EHQHILWV 7KH H[WHQW RI IXWXUH ORVVHV PD\ EH HVWLPDWHG H J IURP KLVWRULFDO GDWD EDVHG RQ WKH SUREDELOLW\ WKDW D FHUWDLQ HYHQW ZLOO RFFXU DQG RQ WKH H[SHFWHG VHYHULW\ RI LWV LPSDFW LQ D VSHFLILF UHJLRQ DQG SHULRG RI WLPH +RZHYHU WKHUH LV WKH SUREOHP RI ORZ SUREDELOLW\ DQG KLJK ORVV HYHQWV ZKLFK FDQ EH GHILQHG DV ULVN\ VLWX DWLRQV ZKHUH WKH SUREDELOLW\ RI RFFXUUHQFH LV ORZ EXW WKH KDUPIXO HIIHFW PD\ EH YHU\ VLJQLIL FDQW DV LQ WKH FDVH RI QDWXUDO GLVDVWHUV > @ 0RUH IUHTXHQW ORVVHV UHVXOWLQJ IURP GLVDVWHUV WKHQ QHFHVVDULO\ OHDG WR WKRXJKWV DERXW WKH LQ WURGXFWLRQ RI ULVN ]RQHV ZKLFK DOORZ WKH OHYHO RI ULVN LQ D JLYHQ ORFDWLRQ WR EH WDNHQ LQWR DFFRXQW )HOO HW DO GHILQH WKH FRQFHSW RI ]RQLQJ LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI WKH ODQGVOLGH KD]DUG DV WKH GLYL VLRQ RI ODQG LQWR KRPRJHQHRXV DUHDV RU GRPDLQV DQG WKHLU UDQNLQJ DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH GHJUHH RI DF WXDO RU SRWHQWLDO ODQGVOLGH VXVFHSWLELOLW\ KD]DUG RU ULVN RU WKH DSSOLFDELOLW\ RI FHUWDLQ KD]DUG UH ODWHG UHJXODWLRQV > @ ,Q D PRUH JHQHUDO YLHZ ULVN ]RQLQJ UHSUHVHQWV DQ DVVHVVPHQW RI D SR WHQWLDO GDPDJH WR WKH HOHPHQWV IDFLQJ WKH ULVN LQ UHODWLRQ WR YXOQHUDELOLW\ DQG WHPSRUDO DQG VSDWLDO SUREDELOLW\ 5LVN ]RQHV PD\ EH FUHDWHG IRU YDUL RXV QDWXUDO KD]DUGV VXFK DV HDUWKTXDNH > @ > @ IORRG > @ ZLQG > @ KXUULFDQH > @ ODQG VOLGH > @ > @ GHEULV IORZ > @ RU WVXQDPL > @ EXW DOVR IRU RWKHU SXUSRVHV VXFK DV PDQDJLQJ WKH LQWHJUDWHG HQYLURQPHQWDO ULVNV DQG HQVXULQJ WKHLU RSWLPDO VSDWLDO GLVWULEXWLRQ LQ D SRSXODWHG DUHD > @ 7KH SURVSHFW IRU ULVN ]RQLQJ LQ WKH ILHOG RI LQVXU DQFH LV WR LQWURGXFH D YDULDEOH SUHPLXP ZLWK UH JDUG WR WKH UHVSHFWLYH ULVN ]RQH FDWHJRULVDWLRQ RI WKH LQVXUHG SURSHUW\ DQG DOVR WR SUHYHQW WKH LQVXUDQFH RI SURSHUW\ LQ WKH ]RQH ZLWK WKH KLJK HVW GHJUHH RI ULVN 7KLV LV EHFDXVH VXFK REMHFWV GR QRW PHHW DOO WKH FULWHULD RI LQVXUDELOLW\ QDPHO\ WKH FULWHULRQ RI UDQGRP RFFXUUHQFH DV WKH ULVN RFFXUV UHSHDWHGO\ WKDW LV ZLWK FHUWDLQ UHJXODULW\ ,Q *HUPDQ\ IRU H[DPSOH EXLOGLQJV LQ WKH KLJK ULVN ]RQH ZKHUH IORRGLQJ RFFXUV RQ DYHUDJH DW OHDVW RQFH LQ \HDUV DUH JHQHUDOO\ QRW LQVXU DEOH > @ 7KH LQVXUDELOLW\ FULWHULD LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI ODUJH ORVVHV DUH GHVFULEHG LQ WKH VWXG\ E\ %HU OLQHU > @ 5,6.6 $1' 1$785$/ ',6$67(56 ,1 7+( &=(&+ 5(38%/,&

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± IRU WKH VHOHFWHG KD]DUGV RI VQRZ ORDG IORRG DQG ZLQG DQG KDLOVWRUP LV VKRZQ LQ 7DEOH DQG 7DEOH UHVSHFWLYHO\ QRWH WKH DJ JUHJDWH \HDUO\ GDWD IRU LV QRW DYDLODEOH

6LQFH PRUH WKDQ QDWXUDO GLVDVWHUV KDYH EHHQ UHFRUGHG ZRUOGZLGH > @ 7KH\ DUH

-RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH


'U 7RPDV +DQDN 5LVN ]RQLQJ LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI LQVXUDQFH FRPSDULVRQ RI IORRG VQRZ ORDG ZLQGVWRUP DQG KDLOVWRUP

7DEOH 9DOXH RI $QQXDO /RVVHV 'XULQJ ± LQ WKRXVDQGV RI &=. VRXUFH > @ <HDU

7RWDO

6QRZ /RDG

)ORRG

:LQG DQG +DLOVWRUP

7DEOH 1R RI ,QVXUHG (YHQWV 'XULQJ ± VRXUFH > @ <HDU

7RWDO

6QRZ /RDG

)ORRG

:LQG DQG +DLOVWRUP

)LJXUH $YHUDJH /RVV 'XULQJ ± LQ WKRXVDQGV RI &=. SHU LQVXUHG HYHQW FUHDWHG DFFRUGLQJ WR > @

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


'U 7RPDV +DQDN 5LVN ]RQLQJ LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI LQVXUDQFH FRPSDULVRQ RI IORRG VQRZ ORDG ZLQGVWRUP DQG KDLOVWRUP

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± VHYHULW\ LQGH[

FDQ EH FUHDWHG 7KH LQGH[ H[SUHVVHV WKH UDWLR RI WKH DYHUDJH ORVV DPRXQW IRU D VSHFLILF LWK KD] DUG LQ D JLYHQ \HDU 3$/ ± SDUWLDO DYHUDJH ORVV DQG WKH RYHUDOO DYHUDJH ORVV DPRXQW IRU DOO WKH KD]DUGV RYHU WKH ZKROH H[DPLQHG SHULRG 2$/ ± RYHUDOO DYHUDJH ORVV

,I WKH YDOXH RI DV 6, WKH VHYHULW\ RI WKH HYHQW LQ FDVH RI QDWXUDO GLVDVWHU UHDOLVDWLRQ LV ORZ LI WKH YDOXH LV FORVH WR WKH VHYHULW\ LV DYHUDJH DQG LI WKH YDOXH RI 6, ! WKH VHYHULW\ RI WKH HYHQW LV KLJK ,Q JHQHUDO WKH KLJKHU WKH 6, YDOXH WKH KLJK HU WKH VHYHULW\ RI WKH GLVDVWHU HYHQW 7KH 6, YDOXHV IRU WKH H[DPLQHG SHULRG DUH VKRZQ LQ 7DEOH

7DEOH 6, 6HYHULW\ ,QGH[ 9DOXHV <HDU

0$;

6QRZ /RDG

)ORRG

:LQG DQG +DLOVWRUP

1RWH GXH WR WKH XQDYDLODELOLW\ RI \HDUO\ GDWD LV QRW DVVHVVHG

*LYHQ WKH VWDWLVWLFDO GDWD 7DEOH DQG )LJXUH DQG WKH UHDFKHG 6, YDOXHV 7DEOH WKH IROORZLQJ RUGHU FDQ EH DVVLJQHG WR WKH LQGLYLGXDO KD]DUGV

ZLWK UHJDUG WR WKHLU SULRULWLVDWLRQ LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI ULVN ]RQH LQWURGXFWLRQ SRWHQWLDO ± VHH 7DEOH

7DEOH 3ULRULWL]DWLRQ RI 6HOHFWHG +D]DUGV 2UGHU

+D]DUG

5HDVRQV

VW

)ORRG

2FFXUUHQFH RI DQ H[WUHPH HYHQW WKH DYHUDJH ORVV DPRXQW LQFUHDVHV VLJQLILFDQWO\ LQ FDVH RI D ODUJH H[WHQW HYHQW 0D[ 6,

QG

:LQGVWRUP DQG +DLOVWRUP

2FFXUUHQFH RI DQ H[WUHPH HYHQW WKH DYHUDJH ORVV DPRXQW GRHV QRW LQFUHDVH VLJQLILFDQWO\ LQ FDVH RI D ODUJH H[WHQW HYHQW 0D[ 6,

UG

6QRZ /RDG

2FFXUUHQFH RI DQ H[WUHPH HYHQW WKH DYHUDJH ORVV DPRXQW GRHV QRW LQFUHDVH VLJQLILFDQWO\ LQ FDVH RI D ODUJH H[WHQW HYHQW 0D[ 6,

7KH LQVXUDQFH FRPSDQLHV FXUUHQWO\ DSSO\ ULVN ]RQLQJ WR WKH IORRG KD]DUG LQ UHDFWLRQ WR WKH ORVV HV FDXVHG E\ WKH IORRGV LQ WKH \HDUV DQG VHH 7DEOH 7KH UHVXOWV RI KD]DUG SULRUL WLVDWLRQ VKRZQ LQ 7DEOH VXSSRUW WKLV SUDFWLFH 7KH IORRG PDSV GLVWLQJXLVK IORRG ]RQHV WKH OHYHO RI GDQJHU IRU D JLYHQ ORFDOLW\ FDQ EH IRXQG RQOLQH > @ 7KH VWDWLVWLFDO GDWD DOVR VKRZV WKDW WKH UDWLR RI LQGLYLGXDO IORRG ]RQHV LQ LQGLYLGXDO UH

JLRQV YDULHV LQ WKH 2ORPRXF DQG =OtQ 5HJLRQV IRU H[DPSOH WKH UDWLR RI WKH WKLUG ]RQH LV PRUH WKDQ > @ 6LPLODU GLIIHUHQFHV FDQ EH IRXQG IRU RWKHU QDWXUDO SKHQRPHQD DV ZHOO H J DF FRUGLQJ WR WKH VWDWLVWLFV RI WKH PDLQ QDWXUDO GLVDV WHU HYHQWV IRU YDOLG IRU ERWK ZLQGVWRUP DQG KDLOVWRUP DQG DOVR IRU VQRZ ORDG > @ )RU WKLV UHDVRQ ZLQG DQG KDLOVWRUP VHHPV WR EH D MXVWL ILHG FDQGLGDWH IRU WKH LQWURGXFWLRQ RI ULVN ]RQLQJ

7DEOH %DVLF )ORRG 'DWD IURP DQG > @ <HDU

1R RI ,QVXUHG (YHQWV

2YHUDOO /RVVHV ERWK ,QVXUHG DQG 8QLQVXUHG

)DWDOLWLHV

&=. ELOOLRQ

&=. ELOOLRQ

-RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH


'U 7RPDV +DQDN 5LVN ]RQLQJ LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI LQVXUDQFH FRPSDULVRQ RI IORRG VQRZ ORDG ZLQGVWRUP DQG KDLOVWRUP

$ FRUUHFW VHWWLQJ RI WKH ULVN ]RQHV UHTXLUHV WKH XVH RI DQ DSSURSULDWH PHWKRGRORJ\ 7KH PHWK RGRORJ\ RI ULVN DUHD ]RQLQJ DQG DVVHVVPHQW SUH VHQWHG LQ > @ ZKLFK XVHV WKH VR FDOOHG ³ULVN IDF WRU´ 5) FRPSXWHG DV D SURGXFW RI WKH KD]DUG IDFWRU DQG WKH YXOQHUDELOLW\ IDFWRU LV DQ H[DPSOH RI VXFK PHWKRGRORJ\ ,Q DQRWKHU VWXG\ WKH ³ULVN VFRUH´ LV GHWHUPLQHG DV WKH DJJUHJDWH ZHLJKWHG VXP RI HDFK RI WKH ORVV PHDVXUHV LQ HDFK RI WKH GLIIHUHQW VHFWRUV LPSDFW RQ SHRSOH HFRQRP\

HQYLURQPHQW LQIUDVWUXFWXUH DQG LQWDQJLEOH SURS HUW\ > @ ,W LV DOVR SRVVLEOH WR PRGLI\ WKH FXUUHQW IORRG PHWKRGRORJ\ XVHG LQ WKH &]HFK 5HSXEOLF ZLWK UHJDUG WR WKH FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI D VSHFLILF KD]DUG DQG WKH W\SLFDOO\ DIIHFWHG FRQVWUXFWLRQ VHH 7DEOH WKH H[SHFWHG H[WHQW RI WKH ORVVHV WKDW FDQ EH HVWLPDWHG RQ WKH EDVLV RI ORVV FXUYHV > @ DQG WKH IUHTXHQF\ RI WKH RFFXUUHQFH RI WKH HYHQW LQ VSHFLILF ORFDWLRQV

7DEOH &KDUDFWHULVWLFV RI 6HOHFWHG +D]DUGV DQG 'DPDJH FUHDWHG DFFRUGLQJ WR > @ > @ +D]DUG

)UDJLOLW\ 9DULDEOH

3HUIRUPDQFH /LPLW 6WDWHV 7\SLFDO /RVV

6QRZ /RDG

+HLJKW RI VQRZ FRYHU VQRZ ORDG >NJ P @

([FHHGLQJ WKH URRI V\VWHP FDSDFLW\ GDP DJH RI URRI VWUXFWXUH

)ORRG

'HSWK RI ZDWHU >P@ GXUDWLRQ >GD\V@ YHORFLW\ >P V@

3HUFHQWDJH RI UHSODFHPHQW YDOXH SODVWHU IORRULQJ SDLQWLQJ PRLVWXUH LQ VWUXFWXUHV

:LQG DQG +DLOVWRUP

*XVW VSHHG >P V@

5RRI UHPRYDO ZLQGRZ ORVV URRI WR ZDOO FRQQHFWLRQ IDLOXUH

7KH OHYHO RI GHWDLO LQ WKH GLYLVLRQ RI ULVN ]RQHV LV DOVR WR EH FRQVLGHUHG %RWK VFLHQWLILF VWXGLHV DQG SUDFWLFH VKRZ VHH 7DEOH WKDW WKH QXPEHU RI ULVN ]RQHV IRU GLIIHUHQW ULVNV LV QRW XQLIRUP LW LV XVXDOO\ EHWZHHQ DQG )RU WKH SXUSRVHV RI

GLYLGLQJ DQ DUHD LQWR ULVN ]RQHV VR DV WR VHW DQ DGHTXDWH OHYHO RI SUHPLXP ]RQHV VHHP WR EH VXIILFLHQW DV WKH FXUUHQW V\VWHP RI IORRG ]RQHV VKRZV WKH QXPEHU RI ]RQHV FRXOG EH SRVVLEOH LQFUHDVHG WR 7DEOH

7DEOH 1XPEHU RI 5LVN =RQHV IRU 6HOHFWHG +D]DUGV 8VHG LQ 6FLHQWLILF 6WXGLHV DQG LQ 3UDFWLFH 1R RI =RQHV )ORRG

> @

> @ > @ > @

> @ > @

:LQG +XUULFDQH

> @

/DQGVOLGH

> @

'HEULV )ORZ

> @ > @

7VXQDPL

> @ > @ > @

+DLOVWRUP

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

-RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH

> @ > @ > @

(QYLURQPHQWDO 5LVNV (DUWKTXDNH

> @ > @

5(6($5&+ /,0,7$7,216 7KH UHVXOWV SUHVHQWHG LQ WKLV VWXG\ KDYH WKH IRO ORZLQJ OLPLWDWLRQV )LUVW LW PXVW EH QRWHG WKDW WKH DQDO\VLV DQG WKH GLVFXVVLRQ LQ WKH VWXG\ RQO\ FRQFHUQV \HDUV WR DV ROGHU GDWD LV QRW DYDLODEOH )RU PRUH UHOHYDQW UHVXOWV D GDWD VHW IRU D ORQJHU SHULRG RI WLPH ZRXOG EH QHFHV VDU\ ± DQ RSWLPXP SHULRG ZRXOG EH \HDUV RU PRUH DV H J LQ FDVH RI IORRGV WKH OHYHO RI WKH VR FDOOHG \HDU IORRG LV DVVHVVHG 7KH DXWKRUV SRLQW RXW WKH IDFW WKDW WKH GDWD GRHV QRW LQFOXGH WZR H[WUHPH IORRGV LQ DQG VHH 7DEOH


'U 7RPDV +DQDN 5LVN ]RQLQJ LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI LQVXUDQFH FRPSDULVRQ RI IORRG VQRZ ORDG ZLQGVWRUP DQG KDLOVWRUP

ZKLFK DUH UHPDUNDEO\ H[WUDRUGLQDU\ LQ ERWK WKHLU H[WHQW DQG WKHLU LPSDFW 7KH LQFOXVLRQ RI WKHVH IORRGV LQWR WKH FDOFXODWLRQV ZRXOG SUREDEO\ EULQJ DERXW DQ HYHQ KLJKHU UDWLQJ RI WKH IORRG KD]DUG DV UHJDUGV WKH 6, YDOXH 6HFRQG LW PXVW EH PHQWLRQHG WKDW WKH VWDWLVWL FDO YDOXHV WDNHQ IURP > @ DUH WRWDO ORVVHV DQG QXPEHUV RI LQVXUHG HYHQWV ZLWKRXW DQ\ GHWDLOHG GLYLVLRQ )XUWKHU UHVXOWV DQG D PRUH GHWDLOHG GLV FXVVLRQ FRXOG EH DFKLHYHG LQ FDVH WKH DJJUH

JDWH YDOXHV ZHUH GLYLGHG DQG FDWHJRULVHG LQWR LQGLYLGXDO LQVXUDQFH SURGXFWV VXFK DV EXLOGLQJ LQVXUDQFH KRXVHKROG LQVXUDQFH PRWRU YHKLFOH LQVXUDQFH 7KLUG EHFDXVH RI WKH VWUXFWXUH RI WKH DYDLODEOH VWDWLVWLFDO GDWD WKH ZLQGVWRUP DQG KDLOVWRUP KD]DUGV DUH DVVHVVHG WRJHWKHU LQ WKLV UHVHDUFK 7KH DXWKRUV DUH DZDUH WKDW LI LW ZHUH SRVVLEOH WR H[DPLQH WKHVH WZR QDWXUDO SKHQRP HQD LQGLYLGXDOO\ WKH UHVXOWV FRXOG SURYH RWKHU FRUUHODWLRQV DV ZHOO

)LJXUH 3DUDPHWHUV ,QIOXHQFLQJ WKH 6XLWDELOLW\ DQG 5HDGLQHVV RI D +D]DUG IRU =RQLQJ

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


'U 7RPDV +DQDN 5LVN ]RQLQJ LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI LQVXUDQFH FRPSDULVRQ RI IORRG VQRZ ORDG ZLQGVWRUP DQG KDLOVWRUP

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µ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± 0XQLFK 5H 1$7+$1 ZRUOG PDS RI QDWXUDO KD]DUGV S KWWS ZZZ PXQL FKUH FRP VLWH FRUSRUDWH JHW GRFXPHQWV PU DVVHWSRRO VKDUHG 'RFXPHQWV B &RUSRUDWH :HEVLWH B3XEOLFDWLRQV BHQ SGI UHWULHYHG RQ $SULO WK 2]GHPLU 2 0RURQH $ $Q H[SHUL PHQWDO LQYHVWLJDWLRQ RI LQVXUDQFH GHFLVLRQV LQ ORZ SUREDELOLW\ DQG KLJK ORVV ULVN VLWXD WLRQV -RXUQDO RI (FRQRPLF ,QWHUDFWLRQ DQG &RRUGLQDWLRQ 9RO 1R SS 3RPSH - - 5LQHKDUW - 5 3URSHUW\ LQVXUDQFH IRU FRDVWDO UHVLGHQWV *RYHUQ PHQWV¶ ³,OO :LQG´ ,QGHSHQGHQW 5HYLHZ 9RO 1R SS ,QWHUPDS 7HFKQRORJLHV V U R 3UĤYRGFH SUR ]MLãWČQt QHEH]SHþt YêVN\WX SRYRGQČ KWWSV ULVNSRUWDO LQWHUPDS F] UH WULHYHG RQ $SULO QG 5DKPDQ $ .KDQ $ 1 &ROOLQV $ ( $QDO\VLV RI ODQGVOLGH FDXVHV DQG DVVRFLDWHG GDPDJHV LQ WKH .DVKPLU +LPDOD\DV RI 3DNL


'U 7RPDV +DQDN 5LVN ]RQLQJ LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI LQVXUDQFH FRPSDULVRQ RI IORRG VQRZ ORDG ZLQGVWRUP DQG KDLOVWRUP

VWDQ 1DWXUDO +D]DUGV 9RO 1R SS 6WDQWXUI - $ *RRGULFN 6 / 2XWFDOW . : 'LVWXUEDQFH DQG FRDVWDO IRUHVWV $ VWUDWHJLF DSSURDFK WR IRUHVW PDQDJHPHQW LQ KXUULFDQH LPSDFW ]RQHV )RUHVW (FRORJ\ DQG 0DQDJHPHQW 9RO 1R SS âWČSiQNRYi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þLQD / 'RViKQH SRYRGHĖ Då N YDãHPX GRPX" KWWS ZZZ K\SRLQGH[ F] GRVDKQH SRYRGHQ D] N YDVHPX GRPX UH WULHYHG RQ

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ĖiNRYi 0 )ORRG ULVN DVVHVV PHQW DQG PDQDJHPHQW LQ 6ORYDNLD :,7 7UDQVDFWLRQV RQ (FRORJ\ DQG WKH (QYLURQ PHQW 9RO SS 3DSHU VHQW WR UHYLVLRQ 3DSHU UHDG\ IRU SXEOLFDWLRQ

-RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH


2ULJLQDO 6FLHQWLILF 3DSHU

GRL MDHV

3DSHU QXPEHU

352&(66,1* 3/$7( 3/$7( ,002%,/,=$7,21 '$7$ 2) 01)& )851,6+(6 .DWDULQD 'LPLü 0LãLü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³QDQRFHOOXORVH´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

6LQFH VXFK FRPSOH[ VXVSHQVLRQV FDQ FRQWDLQ RYHU RI JHO ±OLNH QDQRFHOOXORVH WKH\ KDYH SRRU GHZDWHULQJ DFFRPSDQLHG ZLWK FRPSOH[ WKL[RWURSLF EHKDYLRXU UHVXOWLQJ LQ UKHRJUDPV ZLWK VLJQLILFDQW GDWD QRLVH ,Q WKLV DUWLFOH ³QDQRFHOOXORVH´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

6FKRRO RI &KHPLFDO 7HFKQRORJ\ $DOWR 8QLYHUVLW\ $DOWR )LQODQG NDWDULQD GLPLF PLVLF#DDOWR IL


.DWDULQD 'LPLü 0LãLü 3URFHVVLQJ SODWH SODWH LPPRELOL]DWLRQ GDWD RI 01)& IXUQLVKHV

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± ZW QDQR DQG RU PLFURILEULOODWHG FHOOXORVH DQG ±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±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—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± ZW 0)& RU 1)& DQG ± ZW FHOOXORVH ILEUHV $OO WKH ODEHOV IROORZ WKH QR WDWLRQ UDWLR RI SLJPHQW UDWLR DQG W\SH RI QDQR FHOOXORVH ZW UDWLR RI SXOS ZW FRQVLVWHQF\ ZW 7KH 0)& RU 1)& ZDV PL[HG ZLWK ILOOHU DW YLJRURXV URWDWLRQ ZLWK ODERUDWRU\ 'LDI PL[HU IRU -RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH


.DWDULQD 'LPLü 0LãLü 3URFHVVLQJ SODWH SODWH LPPRELOL]DWLRQ GDWD RI 01)& IXUQLVKHV

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Ȗ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ȝP )RU WKH SXUSRVH RI WKLV VWXG\ ZH PRGLILHG D WUDGLWLRQDO ,0& PHDVXUHPHQW XVHG IRU FRDWLQJ -RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH

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į ZKLFK LV WKH UDWLR RI *CC *C PDUNV WKH WUDQVLWLRQ RI OLTXLG OLNH WR VROLG OLNH EHKDYLRU GXULQJ GHZDWHULQJ 7KH '62 SURFHGXUH WKXV SURYLGHV G\QDPLF UKHRORJLFDO LQIRUPDWLRQ IRU D YLVFRHODV WLF PDWHULDO GXULQJ GHZDWHULQJ LQ WKH ,0& WKURXJK FKDQJH RI WKH FRPSOH[ YLVFRVLW\ Ș 7UDGLWLRQ DOO\ WZR VSHFLILF SRLQWV DUH GHILQHG WR FKDUDFWHU L]H WKH LPPRELOL]DWLRQ RI FRDWLQJ FRORUV DQG ZH EHOLHYH WKDW WKH\ FDQ HVVHQWLDOO\ EH XVHG WR FKDUDFWHUL]H VXVSHQVLRQV LQ JHQHUDO 3DUDPHWHUV IRU '62 PHDVXUHPHQW ZHUH ZLWKLQ /9( +RZHYHU GXULQJ WKH &65 WHVWV WKH YLVFR HODVWLF SURSHUWLHV FRXOG QRW EH GHWHUPLQHG LQVWHDG RQO\ WKH FKDQJH LQ G\QDPLF YLVFRVLW\ Ș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


.DWDULQD 'LPLü 0LãLü 3URFHVVLQJ SODWH SODWH LPPRELOL]DWLRQ GDWD RI 01)& IXUQLVKHV

6KHDU UDWH ZDV OLPLWHG GXH WR WKH YLVFRHODV WLF :HLVVHQEHUJ UHVSRQVH W\SLFDO IRU SRO\PHUV DV QDQRFHOOXORVH LV ZKLFK UHVXOWV LQ VDPSOH WR FRQFHQWUDWH WRZDUGV WKH FHQWUH RI WKH ERWWRP SODWH WHQGLQJ WR LQFUHDVH WKH XSSHU PHDVXULQJ SODWH DGGLQJ WR LQKRPRJHQHLW\ ZLWKLQ WKH VDPSOH FHOOXORVH $GGLWLRQDOO\ GHZDWHULQJ LQ RQO\ '62 PRGH ZDV SHUIRUPHG ZLWK GXUDWLRQ RI W V DQG LQFUHDVH RI Ș PRQLWRUHG 7,.+2129 5(*8/$5,=$7,21 5HJXODULVDWLRQ DOJRULWKPV DUH RIWHQ XVHG WR SUR GXFH UHDVRQDEOH VROXWLRQV WR LOO LPSRVHG SURE OHPV E\ ILUVW XQLI\LQJ FKDUDFWHUL]DWLRQ RI YDULRXV UHJXODULVDWLRQ PHWKRGV DQG WKH E\ REVHUYLQJ ILQDO VPRRWKHG GDWD SDUWLFXODU UHJXODUL]DWLRQ PHWKRG LV FKRVHQ 5HVXOWV 7LNKRQRY UHJXODUL]DWLRQ LV D UHQRZQHG PHWK RG IRU VROYLQJ LOO SRVHG SUREOHPV RI W\SH

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

LV UHSODFHG E\ WKH SHQDOL]HG PLQLPL]DWLRQ SURE OHP

ZKHUH / LV D PDWUL[ GHQRWHG WKH UHJXODUL]DWLRQ PDWUL[ DQG Ȝ LV D SRVLWLYH SDUDPHWHU 7KH SXUSRVH RI WKH VHFRQG WHUP LQ WKH H[SUHV VLRQ WR EH PLQLPL]HG LV WR SHQDOL]H H[WUHPH VROX WLRQV DQG IDYRU SK\VLFDO RQHV ,I H J WKH LGHQWLW\ PDWUL[ LV VHOHFWHG DV UHJXODUL]DWLRQ PDWUL[ VROX WLRQV ZLWK VPDOO QRUP ZLOO EH IDYRUHG 7KH DS SURSULDWH YDOXH IRU WKH VPRRWKLQJ SDUDPHWHU Ȝ

GHSHQGV RQ WKH PHDVXUHPHQW IUHTXHQF\ DQG WKH DPRXQW RI QRLVH LQ WKH GDWD ,Q PRVW FDVHV RI WKLV VWXG\ WKH PHDVXUHPHQW IUHTXHQF\ ZDV +] 7KHQ WKH LQLWLDOO\ DWWHPSWHG YDOXH IRU WKH Ȝ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ǻW :H ZDQW WR UHSODFH LW E\ DQRWKHU YHFWRU WKDW LV VPRRWKHU EXW VWLOO DSSUR[LPDWHV WKH RULJLQDO YHF WRU UHDVRQDEO\ ZHOO 7R DFKLHYH WKLV JRDO ZH VHHN IRU WKH YHFWRU WKDW PLQLPL]HV WKH VXP

ZKHUH DV LQ HTXDWLRQ Ȝ LV D SRVLWLYH FRQVWDQW DQG / LV DQ RSHUDWRU LQ WKLV FRQWH[W D PDWUL[ WKDW HVWLPDWHV WKH DPRXQW RI UDQGRP QRLVH LQ WKH YHFWRU LW DFWV RQ 7KH ILUVW WHUP LQ WKH H[SUHVVLRQ PHDVXUHV WKH GLVWDQFH RI WKH QHZ YHFWRU IURP WKH RULJLQDO RQH WKH VHFRQG WKH XQVPRRWKQHVV RI WKH QHZ YHFWRU 7KH FKRLFH RI WKH FRQVWDQW Ȝ GHSHQGV RQ KRZ PXFK ZH ZDQW WR HPSKDVL]H HLWKHU WKH RULJLQDO GDWD RU WKH VPRRWKQHVV ,I Ȝ WKHQ LV PLQLPL]HG E\ WKH RULJLQDO GDWD -RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH


.DWDULQD 'LPLü 0LãLü 3URFHVVLQJ SODWH SODWH LPPRELOL]DWLRQ GDWD RI 01)& IXUQLVKHV

LI WKH FRPSRQHQWV RI WKH PLQLPL]LQJ YHF WRU DV D IXQFWLRQ RI WLPH DSSURDFKHV D VWUDLJKW OLQH 7KH VHFRQG GHULYDWLYH ZKLFK JLYHV D ORFDO HVWLPDWH RI WKH FXUYDWXUH RI D IXQFWLRQ ZDV VH

OHFWHG DV RSHUDWRU PDWUL[ / :LWK WKH VWDQGDUG ILQLWH GLIIHUHQFH DSSUR[LPDWLRQ RI WKH VHFRQG GH ULYDWLYH WKLV PDWUL[ EHFRPHV

7R PLQLPL]H WKH H[SUHVVLRQ ZH GHPDQG WKDW DOO LWV SDUWLDO GHULYDWLYHV ZLWK UHJDUG WR WKH FRP SRQHQWV RI DUH ]HUR ,Q RUGHU WR EH DEOH WR HYDOXDWH WKH GHULYDWLYHV ZH ZULWH WKH ILUVW WHUP LQ WKH H[SUHVVLRQ DV

DQG WKH VHFRQG WHUP DV

ZKHUH ZH GHQRWH EL M % /7/ ,Q (T DQG DQG DUH FROXPQ YHFWRUV DQG 7 GHQRWHV WKH WUDQVSRVH RI D YHFWRU RU PDWUL[ :H REVHUYH WKDW % LV D V\PPHWULF PDWUL[ L H % %7 1RZ IRU WKH SDUWLDO GHULYDWLYH ZLWK UHJDUG WR WKH N WK FRPSR QHQW RI DOO WKH WHUPV LQ WKH VXP LQ HTXDWLRQ H[FHSW WKH N WK RQH DUH ]HUR

&RUUHVSRQGLQJO\ IRU WKH GHULYDWLYH RI WKH GRXEOH

VXP LQ (T

7KH ODVW VWHS LQ (T IROORZV IURP WKH V\PPHWU\ SURSHUW\ RI WKH PDWUL[ % ,Q YHFWRU IRUP WKH ]HUR FRQGLWLRQ RI WKH SDUWLDO GHULYDWLYHV LV

QRLVH DOVR LQFUHDVHV GXH WR WKH GLIIHUHQWLDWLRQ ZLWKLQ WKH VDPSOHV LQGXFHG E\ WKH VROLGV JUD GLHQW ZLWKLQ PHDVXULQJ JHRPHWU\ DFFRPSDQLHG ZLWK ZDOO VOLS HIIHFW $IWHU DSSO\LQJ VPRRWKHQLQJ DOJRULWKP SURSRVHG DERYH ZH FDQ VHH VPRRWK

UKHRJUDP XSZDUG FXUYH IROORZLQJ LQLWLDO LQFUHDVH 7KH YHFWRU PLQLPL]LQJ WKH H[SUHVVLRQ LV LQ VROLG FRQWHQW LPPRELOL]DWLRQ WKHQ REWDLQHG DV WKH VROXWLRQ RI WKH HTXDWLRQ

+HUH , LV WKH LGHQWLW\ PDWUL[ 7KH VROXWLRQ LV WKH VPRRWKHG YHUVLRQ RI WKH YHFWRU ,002%,/,=$7,21 0($685(0(176 $W )LJXUH LV SUHVHQWHG 1)& IXUQLVK ZLWK RI FHOOXORVH ILEHUV ZW RI 1)& DQG ZW RI SXOS ILEHUV LQ '62 GHZDWHULQJ PRGH 3ORW LV VKRZLQJ LQFUHDVH LQ Ș DIWHU DSSOLFDWLRQ RI YDF XXP GXH WR LQFUHDVH RI VROLG FRQWHQW 6LJQLILFDQW GDWD QRLVH LV REVHUYDEOH DIWHU VWDUWXS RI LPPRELOL ]DWLRQ DQG SURJUHVVLQJ DV LQFUHDVH LQ Ș VORZV GRZQ DQG VORZO\ UHDFKLQJ LWV SODWHDX ZKLFK LV YHU\ GLIILFXOW WR GHWHUPLQH GXH WR KLJKO\ JHO OLNH EHKDYLRU RI 1)& :LWK LQFUHDVH LQ WLPH DV WKH VROLGV FRQWHQW RI VDPSOH LQFUHDVHV GDWD -RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH

)LJXUH ,PPRELOL]DWLRQ DV DQ LQFUHDVH RI FRPSOH[ YLVFRVLW\ Ș QRLVH GDWD DQG VPRRWKHG GDWD


.DWDULQD 'LPLü 0LãLü 3URFHVVLQJ SODWH SODWH LPPRELOL]DWLRQ GDWD RI 01)& IXUQLVKHV

)LJXUH VKRZV D Ș UKHRJUDP IRU ZW 1)& IXUQLVK DQG ZW RI QDQRFHOOXORVH LQ FRP ELQHG '62 DQG &65 GHZDWHULQJ )LJXUH SUHV HQWV LQFUHDVH RI WKH VROLGV FRQWHQW WKURXJK LQ FUHDVH RI WKH Ș '62 $SDUW IURP WKH ILUVW SUH VKHDULQJ '62 LQWHUYDO ZH VHH WKDW Ș LQ HDFK IROORZLQJ '62 LQWHUYDO LV GHSHQGHQW RQ WKH YLVFRHODVWLF UHVSRQVH RI IXUQLVK GXULQJ WKH SUHYLRXV &65 LQWHUYDOV 'XULQJ '62 LQWHUYDO Ș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Ș GXULQJ '62 DQG GHZDWHULQJ W LV IROORZHG E\ D SURIRXQG VKHDU WKLQQLQJ GXULQJ &65 LQWHUYDOV VHHQ DV YHU\ ORZ Ș DW WKH EH JLQQLQJ RI '62 F\FOH 7KLV VXJJHVWV WKDW D SRWHQWLDOO\ FRPSOLFDWHG UHODWLRQVKLS H[LVWV EH WZHHQ UKHRORJ\ VROLGV FRQWHQW DQG VXVSHQVLRQ FRQFHQWUDWLRQ

)LJXUH 'HYHORSPHQW RI FRPSOH[ YLVFRVLW\ LQ '62 F\FOHV ZLWK YDFXXP GHZDWHULQJ DIWHU WKH URWD WLRQ &65 F\FOHV ZLWK VKHDU UDWH RI V

'DWD QRLVH LV PRUH SURQRXQFHG DIWHU DSSOLFDWLRQ RI VKHDU V DV SUHVHQWHG LQ )LJV D E ,Q WKH ILUVW VWDJH RI WKH GHZDWHULQJ SUR

FHVV WKH UKHRORJLFDO EHKDYLRU LV GHWHUPLQHG WR D ODUJH H[WHQW E\ WKH VDPSOH YLVFRHODVWLFLW\ 'DWD SUHVHQWHG LQ )LJ D VKRZ D FRQWLQXRXV LQFUHDVH RI * IRU 01)& IXUQLVKHV FDQ EH XQGHUVWRRG DV LQFUHDVH RI HODVWLF SDUW DQG GHFUHDVH RI ORVV IDFWRU WDQ į XS WR LWV PD[LPXP EHIRUH WKH Ș UHDFKHV LWV SODWHDX VHHQ LQ )LJ E 7KH YHU\ VORZ HYROXWLRQ RI * DQG Ș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Ș DQG * RI 1)& IXUQLVKHV KDYH D PD[LPXP ZKLFK GH YHORSV PXFK ODWHU WKDQ LQ WKH FDVH RI 0)& VXV SHQVLRQV DQG IXUQLVKHV $IWHU '62 F\FOHV WKHUH DUH REVHUYHG LUUHJXODULWLHV LQ ERWK Ș DQG * LQ '62 F\FOHV ZKLFK DUH KLJKHU IRU KLJKHU VKHDU UDWH DSSOLHG 7KLV LUUHJXODULWLHV DUH QRW VHHQ IRU WKH ]HUR VKHDU UDWH LQGLFDWLQJ WKDW ZLWK VKHDU ,1& GHZDWHULQJ GLIIHUHQW SKDVH VHSDUDWLRQ HI IHFWV RFFXU $OVR QRWLFHDEOH LV ORZHU Ș IRU &65 ZLWK KLJKHU VKHDU UDWHV

)LJXUH $SSDUHQW YDULDWLRQ QRLVH RI UKHRORJLFDO GDWD DW VKHDU UDWH V &65 GHZDWHULQJ IRU D * IRU ZW 01)& IXUQLVKHV

-RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH


.DWDULQD 'LPLü 0LãLü 3URFHVVLQJ SODWH SODWH LPPRELOL]DWLRQ GDWD RI 01)& IXUQLVKHV

RQ WKH SODWH SODWH JHRPHWU\ &21&/86,21

)LJXUH $SSDUHQW YDULDWLRQ QRLVH RI UKHRORJLFDO GDWD DW VKHDU UDWH V &65 GHZDWHULQJ IRU E DQG IRU WKH ZW 01)& IXUQLVKHV ZLWK GDWD VWUXFWXUH UHVSRQVH YDULDWLRQ LP PHGLDWHO\ DIWHU DSSOLFDWLRQ RI YDFXXP

$IWHU DSSO\LQJ WKH VPRRWKLQJ DOJRULWKP IRU Ș LQ WKH FDVH RI ERWK 0)& DQG 1)& IXUQLVKHV ZH VHH LQ )LJXUH WKDW WKH LQFUHDVH LQ FRQVLVWHQF\ GXULQJ LPPRELOLVDWLRQ XQGHU WKH DSSOLHG '62 PRGH LV GHSHQGHQW XSRQ QDQRFHOOXORVH RULJLQ 7KH UHOD WLYH VWUXFWXUH SURSHUWLHV WKHQ UHODWH WR DJJUHJD WLRQ IORFFXODWLRQ LQ FDVH RI 0)& DQG JHO IRUPD WLRQ ZLWK WUDSSHG ZDWHU 1)& GHILQHG E\ WKH JHO VZHOOLQJ GHJUHH LQ UHVSHFW WR DGVRUEHG DQG LQWHU VWLWLDO ZDWHU ZLWKLQ WKH QDQRFHOOXORVH PDWUL[

)LJXUH ,QFUHDVH LQ FRPSOH[ YLVFRVLW\ DV VPRRWKHG GDWD UKHRJUDP IRU ZW FRQVLVWHQF\ 01)& FRQWDLQLQJ IXUQLVKHV LQ '62 PRGH

$SSOLFDWLRQ RI VPRRWKLQJ DOJRULWKP IRU Ș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

7KH ,0& HQDEOHV WKH DSSOLFDWLRQ RI YDFXXP GH ZDWHULQJ XQGHU VKHDU E\ XVLQJ VPRRWK SODWH SODWH JHRPHWU\ 7KLV LV D VLJQLILFDQW DGYDQWDJH ZKHQ WU\LQJ WR XQGHUVWDQG WKH DSSOLFDWLRQ RI VKHDU DV D PHDQV WR LPSURYH WKH GHZDWHULQJ RI WKH 0)& 1)& IXUQLVKHV ,PPRELOL]DWLRQ FHOO LV GHVLJQHG DV SODWH SODWH JHRPHWU\ GHYLFH DQG DV VXFK LV SURQH WR VKHDU GLVWULEXWLRQ LUUHJXODULWLHV XSRQ VKHDULQJ DQG GHZDWHULQJ KLJK FRQVLVWHQF\ 01)& IXUQLVKHV 7KH YHU\ KLJK HODVWLFLW\ RI WKH 01)& IXUQLVKHV UHVXOWV LQ WKH FRPSOH[ EHKDY LRXU XQGHU GHZDWHULQJ FRQGLWLRQV XQHYHQ GLV WULEXWLRQ RI VKHDU ZDOO VOLS DQG WKH :HLVVHQ EHUJ HIIHFW W\SLFDOO\ DFFRPSDQ\LQJ SDUDOOHO GLVN JHRPHWULHV IXUWKHU FRPSOLFDWHG E\ VROLG FRQWHQW JUDGLHQW :H KDYH SURSRVHG D PRGHO GHYHORSHG VSHFLDOO\ IRU WKLV W\SH RI GDWD IOXFWXDWLRQV EDVHG RQ 7LNKRQRY UHJXODUL]DWLRQ ZKLFK LV VXLWDEOH IRU WKLV W\SH RI VXVSHQVLRQV DW SODWH SODWH JHRPHWU\ DQG GHPRQVWUDWHG SURFHGXUH E\ DSSO\LQJ LW WR WKH KLJK QRLVH GDWD 5()(5(1&(6 $JRGD 7DQGMDZD * 'XUDQG 6 *DLOODUG & *DUQLHU & 'RXEOLHU - &DUERK\GU 3RO\P $\RO $ 'HQWHO 6 . )LOLEHOL $ - (QYLURQ (QJ %DUQHV + &DUQDOL - - 5KHRO %HUWROD 9 %HUWUDQG ) 7DEXWHDX + %RQQ ' &RXVVRW 3 - 5KHRO &KDQJ * .RR - 6RQJ . .RUHD $XVWUDOLD 5KHRORJ\ -RXUQDO &KLQJD &DUUDVFR * .X]QHWVRYD 1 *D UDHYD 0 /HLUVHW , *DOLXOOLQD * .RVWRFK NR $ 6\YHUXG . -RXUQDO RI 1DQRSDUWLFOH 5HVHDUFK 'LPLü . 0DORQH\ 7 3DOWDNDUL - 6DQD YDQH < -RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FL HQFH ,VWUD]LYDQMD L SURMHNWRYDQMD ]D SULYUH GX 'LPLü 0LãLü . 3DOWDNDUL - -RXUQDO RI $S SOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH 'LPLF 0LVLF . 3XLVWR $ *DQH 3 1LHPLQ HQ . $ODYD 0 3DOWDNDUL - 0DORQH\ 7 &HOOXORVH


.DWDULQD 'LPLü 0LãLü 3URFHVVLQJ SODWH SODWH LPPRELOL]DWLRQ GDWD RI 01)& IXUQLVKHV

'LPLF 0LVLF . 3XLVWR $ 3DOWDNDUL - $OD YD 0 0DORQH\ 7 &HOOXORVH 'LPLF 0LVLF . *DQH 3 $ & 3DOWDNDUL - 0L FUR DQG 1DQRILEULOODWHG FHOOXORVH DV UKHRORJ\ PRGLILHU DGGLWLYH LQ &0& FRQWDLQLQJ SLJPHQW FRDWLQJ IRUPXODWLRQV QGXVWULDO DQG (QJLQHHU LQJ &KHPLVWU\ 5HVHDUFK -RXUQDO 'LYRX[ 7 *UHQDUG 9 0DQQHYLOOH 6 3K\V 5HY /HWW +DQVHQ 3 & 2¶/HDU\ ' 3 6,$0 -RXUQDO RQ 6FLHQWLILF &RPSXWLQJ +HQULNVVRQ 0 +HQULNVVRQ * %HUJOXQG / /LQGVWU|P 7 (XURSHDQ 3RO\PHU -RXUQDO +RUYDWK $ ( /LQGVWU|P 7 - &ROORLG ,QWHU IDFH 6FL +XEEH 0 $ +HLWPDQQ - $ %LR5HVRXUFHV +XEEH 0 $ 3DQF]\N 0 2 3DSHO %UD]LO +XEEH 0 $ 5RMDV 2 - /XFLD / $ 6DLQ 0 %LR5HVRXUFHV ,RWWL 0 *UHJHUVHQ : 0RH 6 /HQHV 0 -RXUQDO RI 3RO\PHUV DQG WKH (QYLURQPHQW -DGHU - -DUQVWURP / $SSOLHG 5KHRORJ\ -lGHU - -lUQVWU|P / (QJVWU|P * 1RUGLF 3XOS DQG 3DSHU 5HVHDUFK -RXUQDO .DUSSLQHQ $ 9HVWHULQHQ $ + 6DDULQHQ 7 3LHWLNlLQHQ 3 6HSSlOl - &HOOXORVH /DLQH - ,Q ,Q )LEUH VXUIDFH PRGLILFDWLRQ E\ GLIIHUHQW SRO\HOHFWURO\WHV $ SRVVLELOLW\ WR RE WDLQ QHZ SDSHU SURSHUWLHV 3XO3DSHU &RQIHUHQFH ,QQRYDWLYH DQG 6XVWDLQDEOH XVH RI )RUHVW 5HVRXUFHV /DQGPDQ . 6LUDNRII & :KLWH / 3K\VLFV RI )OXLGV $ )OXLG '\QDPLFV /DVVHXJXHWWH ( 5RX[ ' 1LVKL\DPD < &HOOXORVH /LQGVWU|P 7 &DUOVVRQ * 6YHQVN 3DSSHU VWLQGQLQJ 1RUGLVN &HOOXORVD 0H]JHU 7 * 7KH UKHRORJ\ KDQGERRN IRU XV HUV RI URWDWLRQDO DQG RVFLOODWRU\ UKHRPHWHUV 9LQFHQW] 1HWZRUN *PE+ &R .* 0¡OOHU 3 & ) 0HZLV - %RQQ ' 6RIW 0DW WHU

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y , 3ODFNHWW ' &HOOXORVH 6XEUDPDQLDQ 5 +LOWXQHQ ( *DQH 3 $ & &HO OXORVH )LEHUV %LR DQG 1DQR 3RO\PHU &RPSRVLWHV *UHHQ &KHPLVWU\ DQG 7HFKQRORJ\ 7XUEDN $ ) 6Q\GHU ) : 6DQGEHUJ . 5 ,Q ,Q 0LFURILEULOODWHG &HOOXORVH²$ 1HZ &RP SRVLWLRQ RI &RPPHUFLDO 6LJQLILFDQFH 7$33, 3UHVV $WODQWD *D 86$ SS :LOOHQEDFKHU 1 &XUUHQW 2SLQLRQ LQ &ROORLG DQG ,QWHUIDFH 6FLHQFH :ROOQ\ . $SSOLHG 5KHRORJ\ <HRZ < / &KDQGUD ' 6DUGMRQR $ $ :L MD\D + /HRQJ < .KDQ $ 5KHRORJLFD DFWD <HRZ < / /HRQJ < .KDQ $ $SSOLHG 5KH RORJ\ Ɍɢɯɨɧɨɜ Ⱥ ,Q ,Q Ɉ ɪɟɲɟɧɢɢ ɧɟɤɨɪɪɟɤɬɧɨ ɩɨɫɬɚɜɥɟɧɧɵɯ ɡɚɞɚɱ ɢ ɦɟɬɨɞɟ ɪɟɝɭɥɹɪɢɡɚɰɢɢ Ⱦɨɤɥ Ⱥɇ ɋɋɋɊ 9RO SS 3DSHU VHQW WR UHYLVLRQ 3DSHU UHDG\ IRU SXEOLFDWLRQ -RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH


2ULJLQDO 6FLHQWLILF 3DSHU

GRL MDHV

3DSHU QXPEHU

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‡ QRQ XQLIRUP GLVWULEXWLRQ RI PDWHULDO SURSHU WLHV GXH WR FROG ZRUNLQJ ‡ URXQGHG FRUQHUV DQG WKH FDOFXODWLRQ RI JHR PHWULF SURSHUWLHV ‡ /RFDO EXFNOLQJ ‡ 'LVWRUWLRQDO EXFNOLQJ ‡ 7RUVLRQDO DQG IOH[XUDO WRUVLRQDO EXFNOLQJ ‡ VKHDU ODJ ‡ IODQJH FXUOLQJ ‡ ZHE FUXVKLQJ FULSSOLQJ DQG EXFNOLQJ 0RVFRZ 6WDWH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI &LYLO (QJLQHHULQJ 5XVVLD 0RVFRZ <DURVODYVNRH VKRVVH DOH[G #UDPEOHU UX

7KHVH HIIHFWV ZLOO QRW EH RXWOLQHG GLUHFWO\ LQ WKLV SDSHU %XW VRPH DVSHFWV DV EHLQJ LQ FORVHVW UH ODWLRQ ZLWK LW DQG QDPHO\ LQWHUQDO IRUFHV DQG PR PHQW GLVWULEXWLRQ DQG KRZ LW GHSHQGV RQ MRLQW DU UDQJHPHQWV DQG WKHLU SRVLWLRQLQJ DUH FRQVLGHUHG KHUH DQG VRPH VLPSOH FRQFOXVLRQV DUH PDGH DQG VSHFLDO MRLQW DUUDQJHPHQWV RIIHUHG 7KHUH DUH PDQ\ RI UHVHDUFKHUV ZRUNLQJ RQ WKH SUREOHPV RI SXUOLQ FRQQHFWLRQV 6R LQ WKH SDSHUV > @ H[SHULPHQWDO DQG WKHRUHWL FDO LQYHVWLJDWLRQV RI FRQQHFWLRQV EHWZHHQ FROG IRUPHG VWHHO = VHFWLRQV DUH UHSUHVHQWHG 5(6($5&+ 7KH PDLQ IHDWXUHV RI WKH SUREOHP FDQ EH VHHQ EHVW FRQVLGHULQJ VLPXOWDQHRXVO\ WZR FODVVLFDO SUREOHPV RI SXUOLQ GHVLJQ 2QH LV IRU EHQGLQJ PRPHQW GLVWULEXWLRQ LQ FRQWLQXRXV EHDP DQG WKH RWKHU RQH UHODWHV WR WKH VLPSO\ VXSSRUWHG EHDPV &RQVLGHU D VSDQ = VHFWLRQ XQLIRUP FRQWLQX RXV SXUOLQ XQGHU XQLIRUPO\ GLVWULEXWHG WUDQVYHU VDO ORDG DFWLQJ GRZQZDUGV )LJXUH )URP WKH PRPHQW GLDJUDP RQH PD\ VHH WKDW PRYLQJ ULJKW WKH ILUVW H[WUHPH OHIW VXSSRUW UHGXFHV WKH PR PHQW RQ WKH VHFRQG VXSSRUW WKXV HTXDOL]LQJ LW ZLWK WKDW RQ DQ\ RWKHU LQWHUPHGLDWH VXSSRUW 2WK HUZLVH LW ZRXOG EH UHDVRQDEOH WR UHLQIRUFH WKH SXUOLQ LQ WKLV VSDQ DQG LQ VRPH H[WHQW RI WKH VHF RQG VSDQ 7KH VDPH DSSOLHV WR WKH H[WUHPH ULJKW VLPSO\ VXSSRUWHG HQG RI WKH SXUOLQ


'U $OH[DQGHU 'DQLORY 7KH MRLQWV RI FROG IRUPHG SXUOLQV

)LJXUH )LYH YDULDQWV SXUOLQ OD\RXW XQGHU WKUHH YDULDQWV RI DFWLRQ FRPELQDWLRQV

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³EHDULQJ VSULQJ VXSSRUW´ 7KLV %6 VXSSRUW PD\ FRPSULVH D QXPEHU RI = SUR ILOHV VWDFNHG RQ RQH DQRWKHU )LJXUH ,W PD\ LQFOXGH MXVW RQH RU PRUH VXSSRUWLQJ HOHPHQWV :LWK WKH IULFWLRQ FRQVWDQW DURXQG QR VLJQLIL FDQW IULFWLRQ VKRXOG EH H[SHFWHG DQG FDOFXODWLRQV PD\ EH PDGH FRQVHUYDWLYHO\ QRW DOORZLQJ IRU IULFWLRQ 7KH SURILOHV DUH EROWHG WRJHWKHU ZLWK WKH

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± XQLIRUP O\ GLVWULEXWHG NJ P DORQJ WKH ZKROH OHQJWK RI WKH EHDP EHLQJ WKH VXP RI WKH WZR DERYH XQLIRUPO\ GLVWULEXWHG NJ P RQ WKH ZKROH OHQJWK DQG DGGLWLRQDO NJ P LQ WKH WKLUG VSDQ XQLIRUPO\ GLVWULEXWHG NJ P RQ WKH ZKROH OHQJWK DQG DGGLWLRQDO NJ P LQ WKH VHFRQG DQG WKLUG VSDQV -RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH


'U $OH[DQGHU 'DQLORY 7KH MRLQWV RI FROG IRUPHG SXUOLQV

)LJXUH %6 GRXEOH VXSSRUW WKH SURILOHV DUH FXW DW WKH JLUGHU V\PPHWULFDOO\

5(68/76 7KH PRPHQW GLVWULEXWLRQV ZHUH REWDLQHG XVLQJ FRPSXWHU SURJUDP /,5$ IRU DOO ILYH SXUOLQ DQG VXSSRUW DUUDQJHPHQWV SUHVHQWHG VFKHPDWLFDOO\ LQ )LJXUH 7KHVH GLDJUDPV )LJXUH DUH SUH VHQWHG IRU HDFK RI WKH WKUHH ORDG FRPELQDWLRQV ,W VKRZV KRZ WKH %6 VXSSRUWV WDNH RII WKH EHQG LQJ PRPHQWV IURP WKH SXUOLQ EHDP WKXV UHGXFLQJ VLJQLILFDQWO\ WKH GDQJHU RI ORFDO HIIHFWV )LJXUH 0RPHQW GLVWULEXWLRQV XQGHU &RPELQDWLRQ )URP WRS GRZQZDUGV JR WKH DUUDQJHPHQWV $ % % & DQG &

)LJXUH 0RPHQW GLVWULEXWLRQV XQGHU &RPELQDWLRQ )URP WRS GRZQZDUGV JR WKH DUUDQJHPHQWV $ % % & DQG &

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

)LJXUH 0RPHQW GLVWULEXWLRQV XQGHU &RPELQDWLRQ )URP WRS GRZQZDUGV JR WKH DUUDQJHPHQWV $ % % & DQG &

-RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH


'U $OH[DQGHU 'DQLORY 7KH MRLQWV RI FROG IRUPHG SXUOLQV

)LJXUH 0RPHQW GLVWULEXWLRQV XQGHU WKH &RPELQDWLRQ $UUDQJHPHQW $

)LJXUH 0RPHQW GLVWULEXWLRQV XQGHU WKH &RPELQDWLRQ $UUDQJHPHQW %

)LJXUH 0RPHQW GLVWULEXWLRQV XQGHU WKH &RPELQDWLRQ $UUDQJHPHQW %

)LJXUH 0RPHQW GLVWULEXWLRQV XQGHU WKH &RPELQDWLRQ $UUDQJHPHQW &

-RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH


'U $OH[DQGHU 'DQLORY 7KH MRLQWV RI FROG IRUPHG SXUOLQV

)LJXUH 0RPHQW GLVWULEXWLRQV XQGHU WKH &RPELQDWLRQ $UUDQJHPHQW &

7KH FDVHV & DQG & DUH IRU QRQ FRQWLQXRXV SXUOLQ KDYLQJ JDSV RQ WKH VXSSRUWV 7DEOH 0D[LPXP EHQGLQJ PRPHQWV LQ GLIIHUHQW DUUDQJHPHQWV 8QLIRUP /RDG NJ P LQ DOO VSDQV 9DULDQW RI 6XSSRUW

$

%

%

&

&

0D[ 'HIOHFWLRQ

0PD[ 6XSSRUW

0PD[ 6SDQ

0PD[ 8SSHU 'HW

0PD[ /RZHU 'HW

8QLIRUP /RDG NJ P LQ DOO VSDQV SOXV NJ P LQ WKH UG VSDQ 0D[ 'HIOHFWLRQ

0PD[ 6XSSRUW

0PD[ 6SDQ

0PD[ 8SSHU 'HW

0PD[ /RZHU 'HW

8QLIRUP NJ P LQ DOO VSDQV SOXV NJ P LQ WKH QG DQG UG VSDQV 0D[ 'HIOHFWLRQ

0PD[ 6XSSRUW

0PD[ 6SDQ

0PD[ 8SSHU 'HW

0PD[ /RZHU 'HW

)URP 7DEOH IROORZ WKH PD[LPDO YDOXHV IRU WKH SXUOLQ LQ HDFK DUUDQJHPHQW 7DEOH 0D[LPXP EHQGLQJ PRPHQWV DQG SXUOLQ VHFWLRQV IRU GLIIHUHQW DUUDQJHPHQWV 3DUDPHWHU

$

%

%

&

&

0PD[ SXUOLQ RQO\

:UHT IRU 6WHHO 6 5\ N1 FP

&URVV VHFWLRQ

=

=

=

=

=

6SHFLILF ZHLJKW SXUOLQ RQO\ NJ P

0D[ PRPHQW DOO HOHPHQWV N1‡P

:UHT IRU 6WHHO 6 5\ N1 FP

&URVV VHFWLRQ

=

=

=

=

=

6SHFLILF ZHLJKW FURVV VHFWLRQ NJ P

:HLJKW $ ± DOORZLQJ IRU RYHUODSV [ P DQG %6 HOHPHQWV IRU WKH UHVW NJ P

-RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH


'U $OH[DQGHU 'DQLORY 7KH MRLQWV RI FROG IRUPHG SXUOLQV

&21&/86,21 7KHVH SUHOLPLQDU\ UHVXOWV RI QXPHULFDO H[SHUL PHQWV VKRZ WKH ZD\ WR UHGLVWULEXWH EHQGLQJ PRPHQWV LQ SXUOLQ WKXV REWDLQLQJ OHVV VHFWLRQ KHLJKWV DQG ZHE WKLFNQHVVHV 7KH UHGXFWLRQ RI LQWHUQDO IRUFHV LQ SXUOLQ PD\ KHOS LQ VROYLQJ VRPH SUREOHPV W\SLFDO IRU RYHUODSV 7KHUH PD\ EH DOVR VRPH RSWLPL]DWLRQ SRVVLEOH UHODWLQJ %6 HOHPHQWV OHQJWKV DQG WKLFNQHVVHV

)LJXUH ([DPSOH RI GRXEOH %6 HOHPHQW VXSSRUW DUUDQJHPHQW ZLWK QRQVWDQGDUG FURVV VHFWLRQ

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

*DUGQHU / 1HWKHUFRW ' 'HVLJQHUV¶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


2ULJLQDO 6FLHQWLILF 3DSHU

GRL MDHV

3DSHU QXPEHU

&5$1( 23(5$7256C $17+52320($685(6 )$&7256 ,'(17,),&$7,21 'U 9HVQD 6SDVRMHYLü %UNLü )DFXOW\ RI 0HFKDQLFDO (QJLQHHULQJ %HOJUDGH 6HUELD 7DPDUD *ROXERYLü )DFXOW\ RI 0HFKDQLFDO (QJLQHHULQJ %HOJUDGH 6HUELD 'U 'UDJDQ ' 0LODQRYLü )DFXOW\ RI 0HFKDQLFDO (QJLQHHULQJ %HOJUDGH 6HUELD $OHNVDQGDU %UNLü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¶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¶DQWKURSRPHWULF FKDU DFWHULVWLFV +VLDR .H\VHUOLQJ +HQFH WR GHVLJQ KLJK TXDOLW\ SURGXFW LQ WKLV FDVH FUDQH FDELQ DOO RI WKHVH YDULDWLRQV PXVW EH WDNHQ LQWR DFFRXQW DQG LQ VXFK D ZD\ WKDW ZLOO PLQLPL]H SUR GXFWLRQ DQG GHVLJQLQJ FRVWV 6LQFH YDULDWLRQV DUH H[SODLQHG ZLWK D ORW PRUH WKDQ MXVW WZR YDULDEOHV LW LV QRW VXLWDEOH WR XVH XQLYDULDWH DQG ELYDULDWH PHWKRGV IRU WKHLU LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ =HKQHU 0HLQGO +XGVRQ ,Q VXFK FDVHV WR REWDLQ SUH FLVH DQG DGHTXDWH UHVXOWV PXOWLYDULDWH DQDO\VLV LV UHTXLUHG

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

)DFXOW\ RI 0HFKDQLFDO (QJLQHHULQJ .UDOMLFH0DULMH %HOJUDGH 6HUELD YVSDVRMHYLF#PDV EJ DF UV


'U 9HVQD 6SDVRMHYLü %UNLü &UDQH RSHUDWRUV¶ DQWKURSRPHDVXUHV IDFWRUV LGHQWLILFDWLRQ

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³WKH GLPHQVLRQDOLW\´ RI WKH RULJLQDO VSDFH DQG H[SUHVV REVHUYHG YDULDEOHV WKURXJK IDFWRUV 9DULDEOHV FDQ EH SUHVHQWHG DV OLQHDU FRPELQD WLRQ RI IDFWRUV *RUXVK /HW =M ;J DQG 6L EH UDQGRP YDOXHV ZLWK IROORZ LQJ FKDUDFWHULVWLFV =M LV D YDULDEOH VXFK WKDW 0 =M DQG 0 = M M Q ;JLV FRPPRQIDFWRU VXFK WKDW 0 ;J DQG 0 ; J J U U Q 6L LV XQLTXH IDFWRU VXFK WKDW 0 6L DQG 0 6 L L Q $FFRUGLQJ WR WKH IDFWRU FKDUDFWHULVWLFV IROORZLQJ DSSOLHV &29 ;J 6L J U L Q

&29 ;D ;E D E

&29 6D 6E D E

6XSSRVLQJ = LV D UDQGRP IDFWRU ZLWK GLPHQVLRQ Q[ ZKLFK UDQGRP YDULDEOHV¶ FRPSRQHQWV DUH ; ; ;Q = FDQ EH GHVFULEHG DV FRPSOH[ YDULDEOH RU VWDQ GDUGL]H YDULDEOH H[SUHVVHG LQ WKH IXQFWLRQ RI FRP PRQ DQG XQLTXH IDFWRUV ZKLFK KDV IROORZLQJ IRUP

-RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH


'U 9HVQD 6SDVRMHYLü %UNLü &UDQH RSHUDWRUV¶ DQWKURSRPHDVXUHV IDFWRUV LGHQWLILFDWLRQ

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

7DEOH 'HVFULSWLYH VWDWLVWLFV RI WKH LQSXW GDWD +LS ZLGWK PP

$UPV OHQJWK PP

0HDVXUHPHQW

6KRH QXPEHU

+HLJKW PP

6LWWLQJ KHLJKW PP

0HDQ

6WDQGDUG 'HYLDWLRQ

0LQLPXP YDOXH

0D[LPXP YDOXH

-RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH

/RZHU OHJ 8SSHU OHJ 6KRXOGHU KHLJKW OHQJWK ZLGWK PP

PP

PP


'U 9HVQD 6SDVRMHYLü %UNLü &UDQH RSHUDWRUV¶ DQWKURSRPHDVXUHV IDFWRUV LGHQWLILFDWLRQ

=HUR RU QHJOLJLEOH IDFWRU ORDGLQJV DUH GLVWULEXWHG DFFRUGLQJ WR UHTXLUHPHQWV RI VLPSOH VWUXFWXUH WKDW LV WKH\ DUH SODFHG LQ WKH FHUWDLQ URZV DV ZHOO DV LQ WKH FHUWDLQ FROXPQV RI WKH PDWUL[ 3UHV HQFH RI ]HUR IDFWRU ORDGLQJV LQ WKH FHUWDLQ URZV PHDQV WKDW IDFWRU FRPSOH[LW\ RI FHUWDLQ REVHUYHG

YDULDEOHV LV UHGXFHG 7KLV PHDQV WKDW HYHU\ YDUL DEOH KDV PHDQLQJIXO ORDGLQJV RQ MXVW RQH IDFWRU L H LW FDQ EH LGHQWLILHG ZLWK RQO\ RQH IDFWRU =HUR RU QHJOLJLEOH IDFWRU ORDGLQJV LQ FHUWDLQ FROXPQV PHDQ WKDW FHUWDLQ IDFWRUV GLIIHU IURP RQH DQRWKHU 0LODQRYLü

7DEOH &RUUHODWLRQ PDWUL[ &RUUHODWLRQV 1 9DU

9DU

9DU

9DU

9DU

9DU

9DU

9DU

9DU

9DU

9DU

9DU

9DU

9DU

9DU

9DU

7DEOH )DFWRU ORDGLQJV PDWUL[ )DFWRU /RDGLQJV ([WUDFWLRQ 3ULQFLSDO FRPSRQHQWV )DFWRU

)DFWRU

)DFWRU

)DFWRU

)DFWRU

9DU

9DU

9DU

9DU

9DU

9DU

9DU

)DFWRU

)DFWRU

)DFWRU

9DU

([SO 9DU

3US 7RWO

7DEOH (LJHQYDOXHV RI WKH FRUUHODWLRQ PDWUL[ DQG YDOXHV RI WKH WRWDO DQG FXPXODWLYH YDULDQFH (LJHQYDOXHV ([WUDFWLRQ 3ULQFLSDO FRPSRQHQWV

(LJHQYDOXH

7RWDO

&XPXODWLYH

&XPXODWLYH

-RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH


'U 9HVQD 6SDVRMHYLü %UNLü &UDQH RSHUDWRUV¶ DQWKURSRPHDVXUHV IDFWRUV LGHQWLILFDWLRQ

)LJXUH 'LDJUDP UHSUHVHQWLQJ HLJHQYDOXHV

',6&866,21 :KHQ DQDO\]LQJ UHVXOWV GHULYHG IURP IDFWRU DQDO \VLV RI WKH FUDQH RSHUDWRUV DQWKURSRPHDVXUHV GDWD RQH FDQ FRQFOXGH WKDW WKUHH IDFWRUV VWDQG RXW ZLWK VXEVWDQWLDO IDFWRU ORDGLQJV QDPHO\ ‡ +HLJKW RI WKH FUDQH RSHUDWRU¶V ZRUNSODFH ‡ :LGWK RI WKH FUDQH RSHUDWRU¶V ZRUNSODFH ‡ 'HSWK RI WKH FUDQH RSHUDWRU¶V ZRUNSODFH )DFWRU ³+HLJKW RI WKH FUDQH RSHUDWRU¶V ZRUNSODFH´ LV WKH PDLQ IDFWRU DQG WKH PRVW LPSRUWDQW RQH VLQFH LW H[SODLQV WKH PRVW RI FRPPRQ YDULDWLRQ RI WKH YDULDEOHV &RQVLGHULQJ VWUXFWXUH RI WKH YDUL DEOHV ZKLFK IRUP WKLV IDFWRU LW FDQ EH QRWLFHG WKDW IDFWRU LV YHU\ KRPRJHQHRXV $OO RI WKH YDULDEOHV KDYH VLJQLILFDQFH IDFWRU ORDGLQJ JUHDWHU WKHQ VR LW LV GLIILFXOW WR VLQJOH RXW WKH PRVW LQIOXHQWLDO YDULDEOH 9DULDEOHV IRUPLQJ WKLV IDFWRU DUH 9DU ³+HLJKW LQ PP´ ZLWK IDFWRU ORDGLQJ 9DU ³/RZHU OHJ KHLJKW LQ PP´ ZLWK IDFWRU ORDGLQJ -RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH

9DU ³8SSHUOHJ OHQJWK LQ PP´ ZLWK IDFWRU ORDGLQJ 9DU ³$UP OHQJWK LQ PP´ ZLWK IDFWRU ORDGLQJ &RPPRQ FKDUDFWHULVWLF RI DOO RI WKHVH YDULDEOHV LV WKDW WKH\ DOO UHIHU WR KHLJKW 6HFRQG IDFWRU FDOOHG ³:LGWK RI WKH FUDQH RSHU DWRU¶V ZRUNSODFH´ LV FRPSRVHG IURP IDOORZLQJ YDULDEOHV 9DU ³6KRXOGHU ZLGWK LQ PP´ ZLWK IDFWRU ORDGLQJ 9DU ³+LS ZLGWK LQ PP´ ZLWK IDFWRU ORDGLQJ 9DULDEOHV IRUPLQJ WKLV IDFWRU UHIHU WR ZLGWK 7KH\ DUH KRPRJHQHRXV ZLWK KLJK VLJQLILFDQFH IDFWRU ORDGLQJV 7KLUG IDFWRU LV LQWHUSUHWHG DV ³'HSWK RI WKH FUDQH RSHUDWRU¶V ZRUNSODFH´ DQG LW LV FRPSRVHG RI D VLQJOH YDULDEOH 9DU ³6KRH QXPEHU´ ZLWK IDFWRU ORDGLQJ


'U 9HVQD 6SDVRMHYLü %UNLü &UDQH RSHUDWRUV¶ DQWKURSRPHDVXUHV IDFWRUV LGHQWLILFDWLRQ

$QDO\VLV RI WKH IDFWRUV OHDGV WR FHUWDLQ FRQFOX VLRQV DERXW REVHUYHG SKHQRPHQRQ ,Q WKLV FDVH ILQGLQJV DUH WKDW WKUHH IDFWRU DUH IRUPHG LQWHU SUHWHG DV KHLJKW ZHLJKW DQG GHSWK ZKLFK LV LQ FRPSOLDQFH ZLWK ORJLF UHDVRQLQJ WKDW IRU GHVLJQ LQJ RI ZRUNLQJ VSDFH LQ WKH FUDQH FDELQ WKH PRVW LPSRUWDQW RSHUDWRU¶V DQWKURSRPHDVXUHV DUH GH VFULELQJ WKUHH GLPHQVLRQDO VSDFH $SSOLFDWLRQ RI IDFWRU DQDO\VLV DQG LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI IDFWRUV SURYLGH SRVLEELOLW\ RI SUHGLFWLQJ FKDQJHV WKDW ZLOO RFFXU LQ RQH YDULDEOH E\ NQRZLQJ DQG PHDVXULQJ FKDQJHV LQ VRPH RWKHU YDULDEOH )DF WRUV GHWHUPLQHG GXULQJ IDFWRU DQDO\VLV KDYH IXQ GDPHQWDO PHDQLQJ UHODWLYH WR WKH REVHUYHG YDUL DEOHV 7KXV QHZO\ IRUPHG IDFWRUV ZKLFK H[SODLQ FUDQH RSHUDWRUV¶ DQWKURSRPHDVXUHV LQ D ODUJH SDUW KDYH WKH VDPH FKDUDFWHULVWLFV DV GR LPSRU WDQW LQIXHQWLDO IDFWRUV GHWHUPLQHG LQ UHVHDUFK VR IDU 5HVXOWV RI IDFWRU DQDO\VLV LQGLFDWH WKH VLJQLIL FDQFH RI WKH PDLQ FUDQH RSHUDWRUV¶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¶ DQ WKURSRPHDVXUHV GHWHUPLQHG LQ WKLV SDSHU $&.12:/('*0(17 7KLV ZRUN LV VXSSRUWHG E\ D JUDQW IURP WKH (X UHND ( SURMHFW 5()(5(1&(6 %LWWQHU $ & *OHQQ ) $ +DUULV 5 0 /DYHFFKLD + 3 :KHUU\ 5 - &$'5( $ IDPLO\ RI PDQLNLQV IRU ZRUNVWDWLRQ GHVLJQ ,Q 6 6 $VKIRXU HG 7UHQGV LQ HUJR QRPLFV KXPDQ IDFWRUV ,9

%RYHQ]L 0 3LQWR , 6WDFFKLQL 1 /RZ EDFN SDLQ LQ SRUW PDFKLQHU\ RSHUDWRUV -RXUQDO RI VRXQG DQG YLEUDWLRQ 'RQGXU 1 6SDVRMHYLü %UNLü 9 %UNLü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± .LWWXVDP\ 1 . $ FKHFNOLVW IRU HYDOX DWLQJ FDE GHVLJQ RI FRQVWUXFWLRQ HTXLSPHQW $SSOLHG 2FFXSDWLRQDO DQG (QYLURQPHQWDO +\ JLHQH 0LODQRYLF ' ' .ODULQ 0 0LVLWD 0 0LOD QRYLF ' / =XQMLF $ ,GHQWLILFDWLRQ RI LQYDULDQW IDFWRUV WKDW GHWHUPLQH ODERXU RXW SXW RQ WKH SURGXFWLRQ OLQH 3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH ,QVWLWXWLRQ RI 0HFKDQLFDO (QJLQHHUV 3DUW % -RXUQDO RI (QJLQHHULQJ 0DQXIDFWXUH 1RUGLQ ) DQG 2OVVRQ 6 'HYHORSPHQW RI GULYHU HQYLURQPHQW LQ FUDQH FDELQ 0DVWHU¶V WKHVLV /XOHD 8QLYHUVLW\ RI WHFKQRORJ\ 5D\ 3 . DQG 7HZDUL 9 . (UJRQRP LF GHVLJQ RI FUDQH FDELQV D FDVH VWXG\ IURP D VWHHO SODQW LQ ,QGLD :RUN $ -RXUQDO RI 3UH YHQWLRQ $VVHVVPHQW DQG 5HKDELOLWDWLRQ =HKQHU * ) 0HLQGO 5 6 +XGVRQ - $ $ PXOWLYDULDWH DQWKURSRPHWULF PHWKRG IRU FUHZ VWDWLRQ GHVLJQ .HQW 6WDWH 8QLY 2K 3DSHU VHQW WR UHYLVLRQ 3DSHU UHDG\ IRU SXEOLFDWLRQ

-RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH


5HYLHZ 3DSHU

GRL MDHV

3DSHU QXPEHU

5(9,(: 2) 9(+,&/( 7(/(0$7,&6 86$*( %$6(' ,1685$1&( &2175,%87,21 72 6867$,1$%/( ,1685$1&( 675$7(*< $OHNVDQGDU 1HGLü 'XQDY ,QVXUDQFH &RPSDQ\ %HOJUDGH 6HUELD 1HPDQMD 1HGLü 6LQJLGXQXP 8QLYHUVLW\ %HOJUDGH 6HUELD ,JRU 6WHYDQRYLü 3RUVKH %HOJUDGH 1RUWK %HOJUDGH 6HUELD 'DUNR 6WDQRMHYLü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

IRU LWV FOLHQWV 6WULYLQJ WR ZLGHVSUHDG ULJKW SROLF\ PHDVXUHV PLWLJDWLRQ RI ULVNV ZKLFK FDQ EH DV VRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI VXVWDLQDEOH DQG JUHHQ WHFKQRORJLHV PDNLQJ LQVXUDQFH XQ GHUZULWLQJ DQG UDWH FDOFXODWLRQ SURFHVV PRUH DG MXVWHG WR LQGLYLGXDOV SURPRWH HFRORJLFDO DQG VDIH GULYLQJ EHKDYLRU SUHYHQWLRQ DQG FRQWURO RI ORVV LQVXUDQFH VHFWRU UHYROXWLRQDU\ FKDQJH WUHQGV :LWK DERXW D ELOOLRQ YHKLFOHV ZRUOGZLGH URDG WUDQVSRUWDWLRQ KDV D VWURQJ LQIOXHQFH RQ ZRUOG¶V HFRQRP\ DQG VRFLHW\ ,W JHQHUDWHV D ODUJH SDUW RI DOO PDQPDGH JUHHQKRXVH JDVHV DQG PLOOLRQV RI SHRSOH GLHG DQG JRW VHULRXVO\ LQMXUHG DV D SDUW RI LW JOREDOO\ SHU \HDU > @ 7KHVH UHDVRQV ZHUH WKH PDLQ PRWLYH IRU VHYHUDO FDPSDLJQV ZKLFK RYHU WKH SDVW WZR GHFDGHV KDG EHHQ FRQVWDQWO\ FKDQJLQJ WKH H[SUHVVLRQ RI OHJLVODWLRQ DQG FUH DWHG LQQRYDWLYH LQVXUDQFH VROXWLRQV


$OHNVDQGDU 1HGLü 5HYLHZ RI YHKLFOH WHOHPDWLFV XVDJH EDVHG LQVXUDQFH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR VXVWDLQDEOH LQVXUDQFH VWUDWHJ\

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Ä3D\ $V <RX 'ULYH³ SUHPLXP PRGHOV ZHUH HQGRUVHG DQG EURXJKW WR OLJKW IURP WKH VWXGLHV LQ (XURSH DQG 86$ 7KHVH QHZ XVDJH PRGHOV VDWLVI\LQJ WKH JURZLQJ GHPDQGV IRU WKH ILUVW WLPH

ZHUH GHSHQGLQJ RQ URDG XVDJH FDWHJRU\ WLPH XVDJH DQG DJH XVDJH GLIIHUHQWLDWLRQ > @ &RPELQDWLRQ RI VWDQGDUG WUDGLWLRQDO ULVN UDWLQJ DQG XQGHUZULWLQJ IDFWRUV VXFK DV GULYLQJ DQG FUHGLW UHFRUG KLVWRU\ RI FODLPV YHKLFOH W\SH DQG PRGHO DGGUHVV PDULWDO VWDWXV KDYLQJ D JDUDJH RU QRW HWF GHSHQGLQJ RQ ,QVXUHU¶V TXRWH ZLWK VLQJXODULW\ RI XVDJH UHVXOWHG DV XQLTXH SUH PLXP IRUPXOD IRU FRQVXPHU RI LQVXUDQFH 7KLV FKDQJH RI SULFLQJ PHWKRG KDG WR EH GRQH EH FDXVH LW EURXJKW KLJKHU TXDOLW\ LQ UHODWLRQVKLS EH WZHHQ LQVXUDQFH DQG FRQVXPHUV FUHDWHG PRUH IDLU DPELHQW ZLWK GLIIHUHQW RSWLRQV DGGHG RWKHU YDOXDEOH VHUYLFHV DQG UHYHDOHG D JUHDW SRWHQWLDO WR UHGXFH QHJDWLYH HIIHFWV RI YHKLFOH XVDJH 8Q FRPSURPLVLQJ GHYHORSPHQW RI LQIRUPDWLFV DQG WHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQ WHFKQRORJLHV DOORZHG IXUWKHU SURJUHVV LQ WKH ILHOG RI XVDJH EDVHG DXWR LQVXU DQFH SURGXFWV LQQRYDWLRQ ± WHOHPDWLFV LQVXU DQFH )LJXUH SURYLGHV D JUDSKLF UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ RI 7HOHPDWLFV 8%, SURJUDPV HYROYHG RYHU WLPH 7HOHPDWLFV 7LPHOLQH > @

)LJXUH 7HOHPDWLFV 7LPHOLQH

86$*( %$6(' ,1685$1&( $1' 7(/(0$7,&6 &RPSDULQJ WKHVH WZR FRQFHSWV RQH PXVW XQGHU OLQH WKDW WKH 8VDJH %DVHG ,QVXUDQFH LV EURDGHU WHUP FRPSULVLQJ GLIIHUHQW W\SHV RI PHWKRGRORJ\ WR WDNH RYHU GDWD IURP WKH YHKLFOH DFFRUGLQJ WR GLI IHUHQW LPSOHPHQWHG WHFKQRORJ\ )RUPHU PHWKRG RI FROOHFWLQJ GDWD LPSOLHG D GHYLFH FDOOHG RGRP HWHU ZKLFK FRQWDLQV LQIRUPDWLRQ RI WRWDO GLVWDQFH GULYHQ DQG KDG WR EH UHSRUWHG WR WKH LQVXUHU VR

SUHPLXP FDQ EH FDOFXODWHG 7KH UHDO UHYROXWLRQ DU\ FRQFHSW WKDW FKDQJHG WUHQGV RI DXWR LQVXU DQFH VHFWRU LV SUHPLXP FDOFXODWLQJ PRGHO EDVHG RQ ZLUHOHVV UHDO WLPH GDWD WUDQVPLVVLRQ WKURXJK WHOHPDWLFV GHYLFH IURP WKH YHKLFOH WR LQVXU DQFH FRPSDQ\ 7KLV FRPSRXQG RI LQIRUPDWLRQ DQG WHFKQRORJ\ HQDEOHG IXUWKHU FUHDWLRQ RI WZR VLPLODU DQG QRZDGD\V PRVW FRPPRQ SURGXFWV ± 3D\ $V <RX 'ULYH DQG 3D\ +RZ <RX 'ULYH -RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH


$OHNVDQGDU 1HGLü 5HYLHZ RI YHKLFOH WHOHPDWLFV XVDJH EDVHG LQVXUDQFH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR VXVWDLQDEOH LQVXUDQFH VWUDWHJ\

7HOHPDWLFV 3$<' LV *36 EDVHG SULFLQJ VFKHPH ZLWK LQVWDOOHG GHYLFH WKDW WUDFNV GULYHQ GLV WDQFH QXPEHU RI PLOHV NLORPHWHUV IRU ZKLFK FRQVXPHU KDV WR SD\ IL[HG DPRXQW RI SUHPLXP SHU HDFK GULYHQ XQLW 7KDW PHDQV WKHUH LV QR RE OLJDWLRQ RI SD\PHQW LI FRQVXPHU GRHVQ¶W GULYH EXW DOVR PHDQV LI FRQVXPHU GULYHV WKHQ EHVLGHV WKH GLVWDQFH GULYHQ LQVXUDQFH DOVR WUDFNV ZKHQ LV D YHKLFOH GULYHQ WLPH RI GD\ DQG QLJKW ZRUNLQJ GD\ RU ZHHNHQG DQG ZKDW NLQG RI URXWH ZDV FKRVHQ IRU WKH WULS XUEDQ DUHD RU KLJKZD\ IRU H[DPSOH 7KLV LPSOLFDWLRQ JLYHV FKRLFH DQG VRPH FRQWURO WR WKH SROLF\KROGHU RYHU KRZ PXFK KH ZLOO SD\ IRU LQ VXUDQFH ZKLFK LV JRRG IURP WKH DVSHFW RI IDLUQHVV

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

)LJXUH 6FKHPDWLF RSHUDWLRQDO YLHZ RI WHOHPDWLFV LQVXUDQFH E\ 3URJUHVVLYH ,Q &RUS

7HOHPDWLFV ,QVXUDQFH KDV EHFRPH D PDLQVWUHDP MXGJLQJ E\ QRW MXVW ,QVXUHUV EXW DOVR SROLF\KROG HUV DFFHSWDQFH DV ZHOO DV JOREDO SXEOLF DZDUH QHVV ZLWK IRUHFDVW RI HVWLPDWHG SUHPLXP YDOXH RYHU ¼ ELOOLRQ LQ (XURSH DQG RYHU ELOOLRQ LQ 86 E\ H[SHUWV SUHGLFW > @ 2Q )LJXUH LW LV VKRZQ D PDUNHW VKDUH RI WKH XVDJH EDVHG SROLFLHV HQDEOHG E\ XVLQJ WHOHPDWLFV GHYLFHV LQ (8 DQG 86 DQG SUHGLFWHG WUHQG WR WKH HQG RI GHFDGH $FFRUGLQJ WR WKH VRXUFH ,WDO\ LV WKH FRXQWU\ ZLWK WKH JUHDWHVW DQG WKH IDVWHVW PDUNHW SHQHWUDWLRQ RI WHOHPDWLFV LQVXUDQFH SURGXFWV HYHQ EH\RQG WKH ERUGHUV RI (8 -RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH

'$7$ 86( $1' 0$1$*(0(17 )RU D TXDOLW\ FODVVLILFDWLRQ RI GULYHUV EDVHG RQ DQDO\]HG GULYLQJ EHKDYLRU WKHUH LV D QHHG RI ODUJH DPRXQW RI FRPSOH[ GDWD $OO RI FROOHFWHG GDWD LQVXUDQFH RU WKH WKLUG SDUW\ PXVW SXW LQ RU GHU VR WKLV GDWD FDQ EHFRPH XVHIXO LQIRUPDWLRQ IRU UHDOL]DWLRQ RI SULFLQJ SODQ 'HSHQGLQJ RQ DG RSWHG VWUDWHJ\ DQG PXOWLWXGH RI IDFWRUV GLIIHUHQW SODQV DSSOLFDWLRQV DQG WRROV DUH QHHGHG


$OHNVDQGDU 1HGLü 5HYLHZ RI YHKLFOH WHOHPDWLFV XVDJH EDVHG LQVXUDQFH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR VXVWDLQDEOH LQVXUDQFH VWUDWHJ\

)LJXUH 0DUNHW 6KDUH RI 7HOHPDWLFV 8%, VRXUFH 3WROHPXV *OREDO ,QVXUDQFH 7HOHPDWLF

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ÄWZR HGJHG VZRUG³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

VHYHUDO VWXGLHV VXFK DV %RUGRI DQG 1RHO > @ ZLWK GDWDEDVH RI SLRQHHU WHOHPDWLFV EDVHG SROL FLHV ,QVXUHU 3URJUHVVLYH ,QVXUDQFH &RUSRUDWLRQ DQG )HUUHLUD DQG 0LQLNH > @ 5HGXFWLRQ RQ FUDVK HV RQ D JOREDO VFDOH LV YHU\ PXFK GHVLUHG JRDO DQG LW LV DOUHDG\ DFKLHYHG DIWHU WKH DSSOLFDWLRQ RI 8%, SURGXFWV > @ 7KLV LV SDUWLFXODUO\ YDOXDEOH IRU WDUJHW JURXS RI \RXQJ GULYHUV EHWZHHQ DJH RI DQG ZKLFK FDUULHV WKH ODUJHVW VKDUH RI DFFL GHQWV QXPEHU > @ %(1(),76 $1' &21&(516 2) 7(/(0$7,&6 86$*( %$6(' ,1685$1&( ‡ %HQHILWV IURP DGRSWLQJ 8VDJH %DVHG ,QVXU DQFH IRU WKH SROLF\KROGHU DUH ‡ ,QFUHDVHG DFFXUDF\ RI SULFLQJ ‡ /RZHU SULFH RI LQVXUDQFH IRU LQ RYHUDOO %\ JHWWLQJ D GLVFRXQW LQ DGRSWLQJ 8%, VR OXWLRQ %\ EHLQJ VWLPXODWHG IRU VDIH GULYLQJ EHWWHU GULYLQJ EHKDYLRU DQG OHVV XVDJH ‡ ,PSURYHPHQW LQ VDIHW\ ZLWK DGMXVWPHQW RI GULY LQJ KDELWV WKURXJK DFWLYH IHHGEDFN ‡ /RZHU IXHO FRQVXPSWLRQ ORZHU PDLQWHQDQFH FRVWV ‡ 9DOXH DGGHG VHUYLFHV ( &DOO VHUYLFHV VWROHQ YHKLFOH WUDFNLQJ RQ ERDUG GLDJQRVWLF YHKLFOH KHDOWK\ UH SRUWV FXVWRPHU IULHQGO\ VHUYLFHV -RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH


$OHNVDQGDU 1HGLü 5HYLHZ RI YHKLFOH WHOHPDWLFV XVDJH EDVHG LQVXUDQFH FRQWULEXWLRQ WR VXVWDLQDEOH LQVXUDQFH VWUDWHJ\

%HQHILWV IRU LQVXUHUV DUH ‡ &XVWRPL]HG SULFLQJ PHWKRG RULHQWHG DQG DGMXVWHG WR WKH FOLHQW ‡ ,PSURYLQJ FXVWRPHU¶V GULYLQJ EHKDYLRU ‡ 5HGXFWLRQ RI DFFLGHQWV IUHTXHQF\ DQG QHJD WLYH ORVV UDWLR DFFRUGLQJO\ KLJKHU SURILW ‡ 5HGXFWLRQ RI IUDXG ‡ 5HGXFWLRQ RI RSHUDWLRQDO FRVWV ‡ $FKLHYH FRQVLVWHQF\ LQ WKH LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI VXVWDLQDEOH GHYHORSPHQW VWUDWHJ\ UHGXF WLRQ RI &2 HWF

&21&(516 3ROLF\KROGHUV KDYH D PDMRU FRQFHUQ RYHU ‡ 3RVVLEOH LQFUHDVH RI SUHPLXP SULFH ‡ 3RVVLEOH YLRODWLRQ RI SULYDF\ ±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

KWWS ZZZ VOLGHVKDUH QHW HPLO\MVDYDJH LQ VXUDQFH WHOHPDWLFV E\ URELQ KDUEDJH RI HPE /LWPDQ 7 'LVWDQFH %DVHG 9HKLFOH ,QVXUDQFH )HDVLELOLW\ &RVWV DQG %HQHILWV FRPSUHKHQVLYH WHFKQLFDO UHSRUW FDQ EH YLHZHG DW KWWS ZZZ YWSL RUJ GEYLBFRP SGI 0DL $ 6FKOHVLQJHU ' &RQQHFWHG 9HKLFOH ,QVXUDQFH ±7KH EXVLQHVV RI SUHYHQW LQJ FUDVKHV 3DYLü 1 3RSRYLü 9 9DVLü 0 'ULY HUV DJH DV WKH GRPLQDQW GHPRJUDSKLF IDFWRU LQ WUDIILF DFFLGHQWV -RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJL QHHULQJ 6FLHQFH ,VWUDå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± :K\ DQG KRZ WKH OHDGHUV DUH GRLQJ LW 7KH LQDXJXUDO UHSRUW RI WKH ,QVXUDQFH :RUNLQJ *URXS RI WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV (QYL URQPHQW 3URJUDPPH )LQDQFH ,QLWLDWLYH FDQ EH YLHZHG DW KWWS ZZZ XQHSIL RUJ ILOHDGPLQ GRFXPHQWV LQVXULQJBIRUBVXVWDLQDELOLW\ SGI 9XMRYLü 5 8WLFDM JOREDOL]DFLMH L NOL PDWVNLK SURPHQD QD VWDQMH UL]LND L WURãNRYD RVLJXUDQMD -RXUQDO RI $SSOLHV (QJLQHHU LQJ 6FLHQFH ,VWUDåLYDQMD L SURMHNWRYDQMD ]D SULYUHGX 9RO 1R SS 3DSHU VHQW WR UHYLVLRQ 3DSHU UHDG\ IRU SXEOLFDWLRQ

%RUGRII -DVRQ ( 1RHO 3DVFDO - 3D\ $V <RX 'ULYH $XWR ,QVXUDQFH $ 6LP SOH :D\ WR 5HGXFH 'ULYLQJ 5HODWHG +DUPV DQG ,QFUHDVH (TXLW\ 7KH %URRNLQJV ,QVWLWX WLRQ ZZZ EURRNLQJV HGX DW ZZZ EURRN LQJV HGX SDSHUV BSD\GBERUGRIIQRHO DVS[ )HUUHLUD -RVHSK -U 0LQLNH ( 3D\ $V <RX 'ULYH $XWR ,QVXUDQFH ,Q 0DVVDFKX VHWWV $ 5LVN $VVHVVPHQW $QG 5HSRUW 2Q &RQVXPHU ,QGXVWU\ $QG (QYLURQPHQWDO %HQ HILWV E\ WKH 'HSDUWPHQW RI 8UEDQ -RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH


( 9 ( 1 7 6 5 ( 9 , ( :

(8520$,17(1$1&( 0D\ +HOVLQNL )LQODQG 7KH QG (XUR0DLQWHQDQFH (XURSHDQ &RQJUHVV ([SR RQ 0DLQWHQDQFH DQG $VVHW 0DQDJHPHQW RUJDQLVHG DW 0HVVXNHVNXV +HOVLQNL RQ ±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

7KH &RQJUHVV EURXJKW WRJHWKHU DURXQG H[SHUWV IURP FRXQWULHV ZKLOH (XUR0DLQWHQDFH ([SR ZDV D ODUJH PDLQWHQDQFH DQG LQGXVWULDO H[KLELWLRQ DWWUDFWLQJ DOO PDMRU SURGXFW HTXLSPHQW DQG VHUYLFH SURYLGHUV WRJHWKHU (XUR0DLQWHQDQFH ZDV VXSSRUWHG DQG DWWHQGHG E\ UHSUHVHQWDWLYHV RI 6HUELDQ PDLQWHQDQFH VRFLHW\ ± '276 ZKLFK LV D IXOO PHPEHU RI ()106 *HQHUDO $VVHPEO\ 6HUELD¶V FRQWULEXWLRQ ZDV UHIOHFWHG WKURXJK YHU\ YLVLWHG SDSHU SUHVHQWDWLRQ RQ WKH WRSLF ³(IIHFWV RI :KROH %RG\ 9LEUDWLRQ RQ 2SHUDWRU¶V 5HDFWLRQ 7LPH´ GRQH E\ 0U 'UDJDQ 6WDPHQNRYLü DQG 0U 9ODGLPLU 3RSRYRü 8QLYHUVLW\ RI %HOJUDGH )DFXOW\ RI 0HFKDQLFDO (QJLQHHULQJ

-RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH


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

9,,, VFLHQWLILF FRQIHUHQFH 3QH80$WLFL 7KH FRQIHUHQFH ZLOO EH KHOG LQ WKH ILUVW KDOI RI 'HFHPEHU LQ WKH URRPV RI 6(5%,$1 &+$0%(5 2) &200(5&( %HOJUDGH 7HUD]LMH 9,,, IORRU 7KH LQWHQWLRQ RI WKH RUJDQL]HUV LV WR EULQJ WRJHWKHU SURIHVVLRQDOV LQYROYHG LQ WKH GHYHORSPHQW SURGXF WLRQ VDOHV UHWUHDGLQJ H[SORLWDWLRQ DQG PDLQWHQDQFH RI WLUHV DV ZHOO DV UHVHDUFKLQJ LQ WKLV DUHD 7KH PDLQ WRSLF RI WKH FRQIHUHQFH LV ³7KH W\UHV OLIH F\FOH IRU SDVVHQJHU DQG FRPPHUFLDO YHKLFOHV´ 2WKHU WKHPDWLF DUHDV RI WKH FRQIHUHQFH DUH ‡ $SSOLQJ VRZWYHUV LQ W\UH¶V GHVLJQ ‡ 1HZ PDWHULDOV IRU WLUH PDQXIDFWXULQJ ‡ (TXLSPHQW DQG IDFLOLWLHV IRU WLUHV ‡ 7\UH SUHVVXUH PRQLWRULQJ V\VWHPV PDLQWHQDQFH ‡ 1HZ UHJXODWLRQV LQ WKH ILHOG RI W\UHV ‡ 5HWUHDGLQJ RI W\UHV ‡ 7\UH PDLQWHQDQFH ‡ 7\UHV DQG 5RDG 6DIHW\ ‡ 7\UH ZDVWH ‡ 9HKLFOH '\QDPLFV ‡ ([SHULHQFH LQ H[SORDWDWLRQ 7KH FRQIHUHQFH ZLOO EH JUHDW RSSRUWXQLW\ WR SURPRWH QHZ SURGXFWV WHFKQRORJLHV VRIWZDUHV DQG OLWHUDWXUH LQ WKH ILHOG RI W\UHV 'HWDLOV ZZZ LLSS UV -RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH


% 2 2 . 5 ( & 2 0 0 ( 1 ' $ 7 , 2 1 5HFRPPHQGHG E\ SURI GU 9ODGLPLU 3RSRYLü DQG SURI GU ýDVODY 0LWURYLü 7,5(6 FKDUDFWHULVWLFV VHOHFWLRQ H[SORLWDWLRQ $XWKRUV 3URI GU *UDGLPLU 'DQRQ 'U 0LORã 3HWURYLü 3URI GU %UDQNR 9DVLü $FFRUGLQJ WR RXU NQRZOHGJH LV D SLRQHHU SURMHFW EH FDXVH LW LV WKH ILUVW ERRN LQ 6HUELDQ ODQJXDJH ZKLFK LQ GHWDLOV DW PRUH WKDQ SDJHV GHDOV ZLWK WKH SURE OHPV RI WKH WLUHV 7KH ERRN KDV D PRQRJUDSKLF FKDUDFWHU DQG UHSUHVHQWV D FRPELQDWLRQ RI WKHRU\ DQG SUDFWLFH LQ WKH ILHOG RI PDLQ WHQDQFH DQG H[SORLWDWLRQ RI WKH WLUHV ,W LV WKH UHVXOW RI UHVHDUFK DQG H[SHULHQFH RI WKH DXWKRU ZKR DUH GHDOLQJ ZLWK VRPH DVSHFWV RI WKLV ILHOG IRU D ORQJ WLPH 0RQRJUDSK ³7LUHV FKDUDFWHULVWLFV VHOHFWLRQ H[SORLWD WLRQ´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±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

-RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH


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ü 3URI GU ýDVODY 0LWURYLü )RUPDW % SDJHV ,6%1 3XEOLVKHU ,,33 ZZZ LLSS UV 3XEOLVKHG -XQH

-RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH


6 $ ' 5 ä $ -

3URI GU 1HQDG ĈDMLü 892'1,.

5(=,0(, 5$'29$ 8URã 6YU]Lü 'U *UDGLPLU 'DQRQ 5(â$9$1-( 352%/(0$ 8 )$%5,&, 352,=92'1-( 3$5.(7$ .25,67(û, ³ .25$.$´ 0(72'2/2*,-( 69(76.( ./$6( 352,=92'1-( :&0

9HUD 0XUJXO 62/$51, (1(5*(76., 6,67(0, 8 5(.216758.&,-, 2%-(.$7$ 2' .8/78512 ,6725,-6.2* =1$ý$-$ 6(9(51,+ *5$'29$ 1$ 35,0(58 6$1.7 3(7(65%85*$

'U ýDVODY 0LWURYLü 'U *RUDQ 9RURWRYLü 'U 1HERMãD 3HWURYLü 'UDJDQ 6WDPHQNRYLü 6YHWODQD 6WRMLOMNRYLü 1$35('1( 0(72'( ,63,7,9$1-$ 6758.785( /23$7,&$ 0$/,+ 9(752785%,1$ '2 32-$9( /20$

'U 7RPDV +DQDN -DQD .RU\WDURYD =21( 5,=,.$ 6$ $63(.7$ 26,*85$1-$ 325(Ĉ(1-( 323/$9$ 61(ä1,+ /$9,1$ 2/8-12* 9(75$ , 2/8-$ 6$ *5$'20

.DWDULQD 'LPLü 0LãLü .DDUOR 1LHPLQHQ 7KDGGHXV 0DORQH\ +HUEHUW 6L[WD -RXQL 3DOWDNDULQ 352&(6,5$1-( 5(2/2â.,+ 3$5$0(7$5$ ,02%,/,=$&,-( 0(5(1-$ 1$12&(/8/2=1,+ 60(â$

'U $OH[DQGHU 'DQLORY 2OJD 7XVQLQD 632-(9, +/$'12 2%/,.29$1,+ 52ä1-$ý$

'U 9HVQD 6SDVRMHYLü %UNLü 7DPDUD *ROXERYLü 'U 'UDJDQ ' 0LODQRYLü $OHNVDQGDU %UNLü ,'(17,),.$&,-$ )$.725$ $175232025)1,+ 0(5$ .5$1 23(5$725$

$OHNVDQGDU 1HGLü 1HPDQMD 1HGLü ,JRU 6WHYDQRYLü 'DUNR 6WDQRMHYLü 35(*/(' 7(/(0$76.2* $872 26,*85$1-$ %$=,5$12* 1$ 83275(%, 92=,/$ '235,126 675$7(*,-, 2'5ä,92* 26,*85$1-$

-RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH


2 ' 8 5 ( Ĉ , 9 $ ý . 2 * 2 ' % 2 5 $ 3R]QDWR MH GD L]PHÿX UD]YRMD HQHUJHWLNH NDR JUDQH SULYUHGH L RV WDOH SULYUHGH PRUD SRVWRMDWL YHRPD YLVRND XVNODÿHQRVW L X]DMDPQD SRYH]DQRVW ãWR ]DKWHYD GHILQLVDQMH GXJRURþQH HQHUJHWVNH SROLWLNH NDNR EL VH QD RVQRYX QMH RVWYDULOD RULMHQWDFLMD QD VRSVWYHQH L]YRUH HQHUJLMH X] RVLJXUDQMH RSWLPDOQH VWUXNWXUH X VQDEGHYDQMX XYR]X L SRWURãQML HQHUJLMH L RVWYDULYDQMH UDFLRQDOQRJ NRULãüHQMD HQHUJLMH NDR L VPDQMLYDQMH QMHQRJ XWLFDMD QD Ã¥LYRWQX VUHGLQX 7R MH ELR L UD]ORJ GRQRãHQMD ©6WUDWHJLMH UD]YRMD HQHUJHWLNH 6UELMH GR JRGLQHª JRGLQH 3UHPD WRM 6WUDWHJLML NRMD MH GRQHWD QD ED]L =DNRQD R HQHUJHWLFL GYD RVQRYQD FLOMD UHIRUPH HQHU 3URI GU 1HQDG ĈDMLü JHWVNRJ VLVWHPD ELOD VX XVSRVWDYOMDQMH NYDOLWHWQR QRYLK XVORYD UDGD SRVORYDQMD L UD]YRMD X SURL]YRGQML L SRWURãQML HQHUJLMH NRML üH SRGVWLFDMQR GHORYDWL QD SULYUHGQL UD]YRM 6UELMH ]DãWLWX Ã¥LYRWQH VUHGLQH L LQWHJUDFLMX X UHJLRQDOQR L HYURSVNR WUÃ¥LãWH HQHUJLMH L REH]EHÿLYDQMH VLJXUQRVWL L HNRQRPLþQRVWL VQDEGHYDQMD SULYUHGH L VWDQRYQLãWYD HQHUJLMRP 0HGMXWLP RYL FLOMHYL VH X SURWHNORP SHULRGX QLVX RVWYDULOL MHU QLMH GRãOR GR SUHGYLÿHQRJ SULYUHGQRJ UD]YRMD 6UELMH QHPD YHüLK SR]LWLYQLK SRPDND X DJUHJDWQRM HQHUJHWVNRM HILNDVQRVWL SRWURãQMD HQHUJLMH SRVHEQR HOHNWULþQH L GDOMH MH YHRPD QHUDFLRQDOQD HNRQRPVNL SRORÃ¥DM HQHUJHWVNH SULYUHGH VH ELWQR QLMH SREROMãDR SROLWLND FHQD HQHUJHQDWD MH SRG YHOLNLP XWLFDMHP VRFLMDOQLK SUREOHPD L NRQWUROH LQIODWRUQLRK NUHWDQMD D DN WLYQRVWL QD UHVWUXNWXLUDQMX L WUDQVIRUPDFLML HQHUJHWVNLK SUHGX]HüD QLVX ]DYUãHQH 'DQDV X SHULRGX SURGXÃ¥HQH HNRQRPVNH UHFHVLMH L NDQGLGDWXUH X (YURSVNX XQLMX SRWUHEQR MH GHILQL VDWL RGUÃ¥LYL GXJRURþQL HQHUJHWVNL UD]YRM ãWR MH L RVWYDUHQR L]UDGRP QRYH Ä6WUDWHJLMH UD]YRMD HQHU JHWLNH 5HSXEOLNH 6UELMH GR JRGLQH VD SURMHNFLMDPD GR JRGLQH³ GDOMH 6WUDWUHJLMD þLMH VH XVYDMDQMH RþHNXMH XVNRUR X 6NXSãWLQL 6UELMH 7D 6WHUDWHJLMD WUHED GD SRQXGL QDþLQ GD VH HQHUJHWLND 6UELMH WUÃ¥LãQR UHVWUNWXLUD L WHKQRORãNL PRGHUQL]XMH NDR L GD VH ]DX]PH EROMD VWDUWQD SR]LFLMD ]D EXGXüL GLQDPLþQLML L NYDOLWHWDQ UDVW HNRQRPLMH L RGUÃ¥LY SULYUHGQL UD]YRM ,] SULPHQH 6WUDWHJLMH WUHED GD SURLVWHNQH RGJRYDUDMXüD HQHUJHWVND HNRQRPVND HNRORãND L VRFLMDOQD SROLWLND ãWR EL X] RGJRYDUDMXüH ]DNRQRGDYVWYR YRGLOR ND RGUÃ¥LYRP HQHUJHWVNRP VLVWHPX L HILNDVQLMRM HNRQRPLML X] UDFLRQDOQH EL ODQVH HQHUJHWVNLK VLURYLQD YHüH NRULãüHQMH REQRYOMLYLK L]YRUD L SULKYDWOMLYH QLYRH ]DJDÿHQMD 5HSXEOLND 6UELMD MH SULKYDWLOD SRWSLVDOD L UDWLILNRYDOD 8JRYRU R RVQLYDQMX (QHUJHWVNH ]DMHGQLFH þLPH MH X HQHUJHWVNRP VHNWRUX YHü SUHX]HOD L REDYH]H L GLUHNWLYH (YURSVNH XQLMH ãWR MH XJUDÿHQR X 6WUDWHJLML 3ULKYDWDQMHP REDYH]H L] 'LUHNWLYH È¿= R SURPRFLML HOHNWULþQH HQHUJLMH SURL]YHGHQH L] REQRYOMLYLK L]YRUD HQHUJLMH 2,( L SURPRFLML ELRJRULYD ]D WUDQVSRUW 5HSXEOLND 6UELMD MH MH XVYRMLOD 1DFLRQDOQL DNFLRQL SODQ ]D 2,( þLPH MH X 6WUDWHJLML GHILQLVDQD REDYH]D ]D XþHãüH HQHUJLMH L] 2,( X EUXWR ILQDOQRM SRWURãQML HQHUJLMH RG NDR L XþHãüH HQHUJLMH L] 2,( X WUDQVSRUWX RG X JRGLQL 3UHGYLÿHQL UD]YRM NRULãüHQMH REQRYOMLYLK L]YRUD HQHUJLMH X 6WUDWHJLML EL WUHEDOR GD ãLUH XYHGH WHKQRORJL MH QMLKRYRJ NRULãüHQMD X VUSVNX HQHUJHWLNX DOL L X VUSVNR GUXãWYR X FHOLQL 9UOR MH ELWQR GD VH X 6UELML X QDUHGQLP JRGLQDPD IRUPLUD SRWUHEDQ QDXþQL L VWUXþQL NDGDU NDR L SURMHNWDQVND L L]YRGMDþND SUHGX]HüD ]D RVWYDULYDQMH SUHGYLÿHQRJ FLOMD UD]YRMD REQRYOMLYLK L]YRUD HQHUJLMH X þHPX GRSULQRV WUHED GD GDMX L PHGLML SRSXODULãXüL ]QDþDM WDNYRJ RGUÃ¥LYRJ UD]YRMD HQHUJHWLNH 6UELMH 6 SRãWRYDQMHP 3URI GU 1HQDG ĈDMLü

-RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH


5 ( = , 0 ( , 5 $ ' 2 9 $ GRL MDHV 6WUXþQL þODQDN

%URM UDGD

5(â$9$1-( 352%/(0$ 8 )$%5,&, 352,=92'1-( 3$5.(7$ .25,67(û, ³ .25$.$´ 0(72'2/2*,-( 69(76.( ./$6( 352,=92'1-( :&0 8URã 6YU]Lü âXPDUVNL IDNXOWHW %HRJUDG 6UELMD 'U *UDGLPLU 'DQRQ âXPDUVNL IDNXOWHW %HRJUDG 6UELMD 5DG SUHGVWDYOMD PHWRG X UHãDYDQMX SUREOHPD X SURL]YRGQML NRULVWHüL ³ .RUDND´ PHWRGRORJLMH VYHWVNH NODVH SURL]YRGQMH :&0 =D VYDNX NRPSDQLMX VD VHULMVNRP SURL]YRGQMRP MH YHRPD ELWQR GD SUHSR]QD ãWD WUHED GD ³ QDSDGQH GD EL RVWYDULOD FLOMHYH L GD EL SRYHüDOD 2((´ &LOM VYDNH NRPSDQLMH MH GD VPDQML ILQDQVLMVNH JXELWNH DOL MH YDåQR GD ]QD NDNR WR GD RVWYDUL 8 RYRP VOXþDMX MHGDQ RG KURQLþQLK SUREOHPD QD OLQLML ODNLUDQMD SULSDGD JXELWNX XVOHG SXFDQMD EUXVQLK WUDND X NROLþLQL RG RG XNXSQLK SURFHVQLK ]DVWRMD RGQRVQR RG VYLK XNXSQLK ]DVWRMD QD WRM OLQLML 1DþLQ UHãDYDQMD RYRJ SUREOHPD MH ELR NUR] NRULãüHQMH ³ .RUDND´ ,QGLND WRU ]D UHãDYDQMH SUREOHPD MH ELR XWLFDMD QD XNXSQX HILNDVQRVW RSUHPH 2(( 'HWDOMQD DQDOL]D SRND]XMH GD SRVWRMH þHWLUL PRJXüD X]URND RYRJ SUREOHPD 9UVWD L NYDOLWHW VSRMD SDSLUD QD NUDMHYLPD VX LPDOD QDMYHüL XWLFDM 3UREOHP MH UHãHQ ]DPHQRP VD NYDOLWHWQLMLP SDSLURP L QMHJRYLP VSRMHP QD NUDMHYLPD -HGQR GRVWD ³ MHGQRVWDYQR´ UHãHQMH ]D QHSULPHüHQ JXELWDN RVWYDULOR MH YHOLNH XãWHGH ]D NRPSDQLMX .OMXþQH UHþL 7URVORMQL SDUNHW 3URGXNWLYQRVW 2(( 3DUHWR DQDOL]D (ILNDVQRVW :&0 NRUDND UHãDYDQMD SUREOHPD GRL MDHV 2ULJLQDOQL QDXþQL UDG

3DSHU QXPEHU

62/$51, (1(5*(76., 6,67(0, 8 5(.216758.&,-, 2%-(.$7$ 2' .8/78512 ,6725,-6.2* =1$&$-$ 6(9(51,+ *5$'29$ 1$ 35,0(58 6$1.7 3(7(5%85*$

9HUD 0XUJXO 'UåDYQL SROLWHKQLþNL 8QLYHU]LWHW 6W 3HWHUVEXUJ 6DQNW 3HWHUVEXUJ 5XVLMD 3ULPHQD VRODUQLK VLVWHPD HQHUJR VQDEGHYDQMD SUL UHNRQVWUXNFLML REMHNWD VSRPHQLND LVWRULMH L NXOWXUH QDLOD]L QD EURMQH SRWHãNRüH $ QDURþLWR ]ERJ SRWUHEH RþXYDQMD QHL]PHQMHQRJ VSROMDãQMHJ REOLND REMHNWD 3RWUHEQR MH GD VH SURQDÿH PHWRG LQWHJUDFLMH VLVWHPD VRODUQRJ HQHUJR VQDEGHYDQMD DOL QH QD ãWHWX RþXYDQMD DUKL WHNWRQVNRJ QDVOHÿD L REH]EHÿXMXüL RSWLPDOQX SURL]YRGQMX VRODUQH HQHUJLMH 7DNYLP UHãHQMHP PRåH SRVWDWL UHãHQMH GD VH XRSãWH QH GLUD IDVDGD REMHNWD $XWRU SUHGODåH GD VH L]GYRML VLVWHP GRGDWQRJ HQHUJR VQDE GHYDQMD QD RVQRYX VRODUQH HQHUJLMH X NODVL SULYUHPHQLK NRQVWUXNFLMD SRWHQFLMDOQR RGYRMLYLK RG NDSLWDOQH RVQRYH REMHNWD 8YHGHQ MH SRMDP %XLOGLQJ LQGHSHQGHQW WHPSRUDU\ SKRWRYROWDLFV FRQVWUXFWLRQV %,739& 2YDM þODQDN MH SRVYHüHQ SLWDQMLPD DUKLWHNWRQVNH DGDSWDFLMH L KDUPRQLþQRJ XNOMXþLYDQMD WHKQRORJLMD VRODUQH HQHUJHWLNH X LVWRULMVNR RNUXåHQMH VHYHUQLK JUDGRYD QD SULPHUX 6DQNW 3HWHUVEXUJD .OMXþQH UHþL 6RODUQD HQHUJLMD ³3KRWRYROWDLF V\VWHPV´ .XOWXUQR LVWRULMVNR QDVOHÿH (QHUJRHILNDVQRVW 5HNRQVWUXNFLMD GRL MDHV 2ULJLQDOQL QDXþQL UDG

%URM UDGD

=21( 5,=,.$ 6$ $63(.7$ 26,*85$1-$ 325(Ĉ(1-( 323/$9$ 61(ä1,+ /$9,1$ 2/8-12* 9(75$ , 2/8-$ 6$ *5$'20 'U 7RPDV +DQDN *UDÿHYLQVNL IDNXOWHW %UQR ýHãND UHSXEOLND -DQD .RULWDURYD *UDÿHYLQVNL IDNXOWHW %UQR ýHãND UHSXEOLND 3ULURGQH NDWDVWURIH PRJX LPDWL NDWDVWURIDODQ XþLQDN QD Ã¥LYRWH OMXGL SRVORYDQMH SUHGX]HüD L LPRYLQX 8þLQFL WLK NDWDVWURID VSDGDMX X NDWHJRULMX SULURGQLK RSDVQRVWL SULSDGDMX VWDQGDUGQLP SROLVDPD RVLJXUDQMD PHÿXWLP RQL VX SUREOHPDWLþQL VD DVSHNWD UD]OLþLWRJ VWHSHQD UL]LND XJURÃ¥DYDMXüL RVLJXUDQMH SUHGPHWD QD UD]OLþLWLP ORNDFLMDPD &LOM RYRJ UDGD MH GLVNXVLMD L RFHQD SRWHQFLMDOD SULPHQH ]RQLUDQMD UL]LND X ýHãNRM QD SULPHULPD RGDEUDQLK SULURG QLK RSDVQRVWL RG SRSODYH VQHÃ¥QLK ODYLQD ROXMQRJ YHWUD L ROXMD VD JUDGRP 3URFHQD VH VSURYRGL NRULãüHQMHP GRVWXSQLK VWDWLVWLþNLK SRGDWDND L LQGHNVD R]ELOMQRVWL =DNOMXþHQR MH GD QDNRQ RSDVQRVWL RG SRSODYH QDMYHüL SRWHQ FLMDO ]D XYRÿHQMH ]RQLUDQMD UL]LND ]D RVLJXUDQMH LPDMX XGUXÃ¥HQH RSDVQRVWL RG ROXMQRJ YHWUD L ROXMD VD JUDGRP .OMXþQH UHþL 2OXMQL YHWDU 2SWHUHüHQMH VQHJRP 2VLJXUDQMH 3RSODYD 5L]LN =RQD

-RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH


5 ( = , 0 ( , 5 $ ' 2 9 $ GRL MDHV 2ULJLQDOQL QDXþQL UDG

3DSHU QXPEHU

1$35('1( 0(72'( 7(67,5$1-$ 6758.785( /23$7,&$ 0$/,+ 9(752*(1(5$725$ '2 32-$9( /20$ 'U ýDVODY 0LWURYLü 0DãLQVNL IDNXOWHW %HRJUDG 6UELMD 'U *RUDQ 9RURWRYLü 0DãLQVNL IDNXOWHW %HRJUDG 6UELMD 'U 1HERMãD 3HWURYLü 0DãLQVNL IDNXOWHW %HRJUDG 6UELMD 'UDJDQ 6WDPHQNRYLü 0DãLQVNL IDNXOWHW %HRJUDG 6UELMD 6YHWODQD 6WRMLOMNRYLü 9D]GXKRSORYQD DNDGHPLMD %HRJUDG 6UELMD 2YDM UDG SUH]HQWXMH VWDWLþNR WHVWLUDQMH VWUXNWXUH NRPSR]LWQH ORSDWLFH : 5%96 YHWURJHQHUDWRUD VQDJH GR N: 7HVWLUDQMH MH ED]LUDQR QD VWDWLþNRP WHVWLUDQMX VWUXNWXUH GR WUHQXWND ORPD ORSDWLFH *ODYQL FLOM WHVWLUDQMD MH GHILQLVDQMH NUXWRVWL ORSDWLFH: 5%96 RGUHÿLYDQMH PDNVLPDOQH VLOH NRMD GRYRGL GR ORPD NDR L UHODWLYQL UD]PDK ORPD ORSDWLFH .RPSR]LWQH ORSDWLFH : 5%96 SURL]YHGHQH X ILUPL :,1* G R R D XJUDGMXMX VH QD GYRNUDNL YHWURJHQHUDWRU (ROWHF 6FLURFFR 2YDM WHVW MH GHILQLVDQ VWDQGDUGRP ,(& ,VSLWLYDQMH ORSDWLFD MH L]YUãHQR X /DERUDWRULML ]D DHURWHKQLNX 0DãLQVNRJ IDNXOWHWD 8QLYHU]LWHWD X %HRJUDGX 7HVW RSWHUHüHQMD VH L]YRGL GR PRPHQWD ORPD ORSDWLFH 5H]XOWDW WHVWLUDQMD üH ELWL LVNRULãüHQ ]D UHGL]DMQLUDQMH ORSDWLFH : 5%96 .OMXþQH UHþL 7HVWLUDQMH VWUXNWXUH 0DOD YHWURWXUELQD .RPSR]LWQD ORSDWLFD 7HVWLUDQMH ORSDWLFH GRL MDHV 2ULJLQDOQL QDXþQL UDG

3DSHU QXPEHU

352&(6,5$1-( 5(2/2â.,+ 3$5$0(7$5$ ,02%,/,=$&,21,+ 0(5(1-$ 1$12 &(/8/2=1,+ 60(â$ .DWDULQD 'LPLü 0LãLü ³$DOWR´ 8QLYHU]LWHW $DOWR )LQVND .DDUOR 1LHPLQHQ ³$DOWR´ 8QLYHU]LWHW $DOWR )LQVND 7KDGGHXV 0DORQH\ ³$DOWR´ 8QLYHU]LWHW $DOWR )LQVND +HUEHUW 6L[WD ³$DOWR´ 8QLYHU]LWHW $DOWR )LQVND -RXQL3DOWDNDUL ³$DOWR´ 8QLYHU]LWHW $DOWR )LQVND $OJRULWDP ]D LGHOQR UHJXOLVDQMH EXNH SDUDPHWDUD SURPHQH YLVNR]LWHWD XVOHG LPRELOL]DFLMH MH SUHGORåHQ )OXLGL NRPSOHNVQH UHRORJLMH NDR ãWR VX QDQRFHOXOR]QH VPHãH SRVHEQR NDGD VX X SLWDQMX VXVSHQ]L MH YLVRNH NRQ]LVWHQWQRVWL VWYDUDMX R]ELOMQH VPHWQMH SULOLNRP UHRORãNLK PHUHQMD L R]ELOMDQ SUREOHP SUL XWYUÿLYDQMX QMLKRYRJ SUDYRJ UHRORãNRJ SRQDãDQMD 2YDM UDG RSLVXMH SURFHGXUX ED]LUDQX QD PHWRGL 7LN KRQRYH UHJXODUL]DFLMH SRGDWDND NRMD RPRJXüDYD VPDQMHQMH VPHWQML X UHRORãNLP SDUDPHWULPD SULOLNRP NRULãüHQMD JODWNH SDUDOHOQH JHRPHWULMH SUL XSRWUHEL LPRELOL]DFLRQH üHOLMH NRMD MH VSRMHQD VD 0&5 UHRPHWURP L RPRJXüDYD XVOHG SULPHQH YDNXPD SUDüHQMH SURPHQH YLVNR]QRVWL QDQRFHOXOR]QH VPHãH .OMXþQH UHþL .RQ]LVWHQWQRVW ,PRELOL]DFLMD %XND 3URFHVLUDQMH 5HJXOD]DFLMD 6XVSHQ]LMD GRL MDHV 2ULJLQDOQL QDXþQL UDG 632-(9, +/$'12 2%/,.29$1,+ 52ä1-$ý$

3DSHU QXPEHU

'U $OH[DQGHU 'DQLORY *UDÿHYLQVNL IDNXOWHW 0RVNYD 5XVLMD 2OJD 7XVQLQD *UDÿHYLQVNL IDNXOWHW 0RVNYD 5XVLMD 5D]PRWUHQD VX GYD SUREOHPD SURMHNWRYDQMD URåQMDþD YH]DQD ]D UDVSRGHOX PRPHQDWD VDYLMDQMD X NRQWLQXDOQLP , SURVWLP JUHGDPD 5DVSRGHOD PRPHQDWD VDYLMDQMD X URåQMDþDPD PRåH ELWL RVWYDUHQD NRULãüHQMHP VHNXQGDUQLK HO HPHQDWD RSUXJD 3UHOLPLQDUQL UH]XOWDWL QXPHULþNLK HNVSHULPHQDWD SRND]XMX ]QDþDMQR VPDQMHQMH PRPHQDWD VDYLMDQMD X URåQMDþDPD L QD WDM QDþLQ GRELMDQMH PDQMH YLVLQH SURILOD L GHEOMLQH ]LGRYD QRVDþD 3ULVWXS VPDQMDQMX XQXWUDãQMLK VLOD X URåQMDþDPD PRåH SRPRþL X UHãDYDQMX SRMHGLQLK SUREOHPD WLSLþQLK ]D KODGQR REOLNRYDQH WDQNR]LGQH SURILOH 7DNRÿH MH PRJXüD L RGUHÿHQD RSWLPL]DFLMD YH]DQD ]D GXåLQX GHEOMLQX L SRSUHþQL SUHVHNVHNXQGDUQLK HOHPHQDWD RSUXJD .OMXþQH UHþL 6HNXQGDUQL HOHPHQWL RSUXJD 5DVSRGHOD PRPHQDWD VDYLMDQMD 5RåQMDþH = SURILOL -RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH


5 ( = , 0 ( , 5 $ ' 2 9 $ GRL MDHV 2ULJLQDOQL QDXþQL UDG

%URM UDGD

,'(17,),.$&,-$ )$.725$ $175232025)1,+ 0(5$ .5$1 23(5$725$ 'U 9HVQD 6SDVRMHYLü %UNLü 0DãLQVNL IDNXOWHW %HRJUDG 6UELMD 7DPDUD *ROXERYLü 0DãLQVNL IDNXOWHW %HRJUDG 6UELMD 'U 'UDJDQ ' 0LODQRYLü 0DãLQVNL IDNXOWHW %HRJUDG 6UELMD $OHNVDQGDU %UNLü ,QRYDFLRQL FHQWDU 0DãLQVNRJ IDNXOWHWD %HRJUDG 6UELMD 6YUKD RYRJ UDGD MH SULPHQD PHWRGH ]DVQRYDQH QD VYHREXKYDWQRM VWDWLþNRM WHKQLFL X FLOMX RGUHÿLYDQMD NULWLþQH GLPHQ]LMH NDELQH NUDQD NRMD EL PDNVLPL]LUDOD SULODJRGOMLYRVW L HUJRQRPLMX SURL]YRGD UH]XOWXMXüL SULODJRÿHQRVWL ãLUHP NUXJX SRSXODFLMH L YHüRM EH]EHGQRVWL X UDGX 6YHREXKYDWQD VWDWLþND PHWRGD XSRWUHEOMHQD ]D RYX VYUKX MH DQDOL]D IDNWRUD 5H]XOWDWL RYRJ LVWUDåLYDQMD VSURYHGHQRJ QD X]RUNX RG RSHUDWRUD NUDQD SRND]DOL VX GD GRN VH GL]DMQLUD UDGQL SURVWRU NULWLþQH DQWURSRPRUIQH PHUH ]DX]LPDMX WURGLPHQ]LRQL SURVWRU GRN QMLKRY XWLFDM GRSULQRVL X VYDNRM GLPHQ]LML RGUHÿLYDQMH SRPRüX DQDOL]RP IDNWRUD 2þHNXMH VH GD UH]XOWDWL RYRJ UDGD EXGX NRULVQL X LQGXVWULML QD QDþLQ GD SURMHNWDQWL NDELQD NUDQRYD PRJX UHãLWL SUREOHPH VD NRMLPD VH VXVUHüX X VYRP SRVOX 8SRWUHERP RWNULüD X RYRM DQNHWL PRJX GRYHVWL GR QRYRJ GL]DMQD NDELQH NRMD PRåH SRQXGLWL PDQMH QDSRUDQ SRORåDM RSHUDWRUX ãWR üH X]URþQR SRYHüDWL SURGXNWLYQRVW L EH]EHGQRVW .OMXþQH UHþL 2SHUDWRU NUDQD $QWURSRPRUIQH PHUH $QDOL]H IDNWRUD GRL MDHV 3UHJOHGQL UDG

%URM UDGD

35(*/(' 7(/(0$76.2* $872 26,*85$1-$ %$=,5$12* 1$ 83275(%, 92=,/$ ± '235,126 675$7(*,-, 2'5ä,92* 26,*85$1-$ $OHNVDQGDU 1HGLü 'XQDY RVLJXUDQMH %HRJUDG 6UELMD 1HPDQMD 1HGLü 8QLYHU]LWHW 6LQJLGXQXP %HRJUDG 6UELMD ,JRU 6WHYDQRYLü 3RUVKH %HRJUDG 6HYHU %HRJUDG 6UELMD 'DUNR 6WDQRMHYLü 0DãLQVNL IDNXOWHW %HRJUDG 6UELMD 1DPHQD RVLJXUDQMD MH REH]EHÿLYDQMH VLJXUQRVWL ]D NOLMHQWH L QMLKRYH SDUWQHUH SHUIHNWQLP L RGJRY RUQLP UD]XPHYDQMHP XSUDYOMDQMHP SUDüHQMHP L þXYDQMHP RG UL]LND .DR VQDÃ¥DQ SRNUHWDþ JOREDOQH LQGXVWULMH RVLJXUDQMH WDNRÿH LPD SRWHQFLMDO GD GRSULQHVH XQDSUHÿHQMX GUXãWYD HNRQRPLMH L YODVWL VD VWURJLP SR]LWLYQLP XWLFDMHP QD RNROLQX 2GUÃ¥LYR RVLJXUDQMH MH þYUVWR RSUHGHOMHQMH VHNWRUD RVLJX UDQMD ]D SUHSR]QDYDQMH RGUÃ¥LYLK YUHGQRVWL L RGUHÿHQRVWL ]D LQWHJUDFLMX WLK YUHGQRVWL X WRM VWUDWHJLML 8 QRYRP QDþLQX SRJOHGD QD EXGXüQRVW SULQFLSL VHNWRUD RVLJXUDQMD VX X QDMEROMRM SR]LFLML ]D LQLFLUDQMH L XþHãüH X UHãDYDQMX NRPSOHNVQLK JOREDOQLK SUREOHPD X YH]L VD NOLPDWVNLP L]D]RYLPD L SURPHQDPD L RVLURPDãHQMD SULURGQLK UHVXUVD 8 RYRP UDGX ELüH GLVNXWRYDQR R SURGXNWLPD DXWR RVLJXUDQMD ED]LUD QLP QD Ä7HOHPDWLNV³ WHKQRORJLML RVLJXUDQMD 7L SURGXNWL VX SURPRYLVDQL X VHNWRUX RVLJXUDQMD X VNODGX VD SULURGQLP SURJUHVRP GUXãWYD L RNYLULPD ]DNRQD UD]YRMX WHKQRORJLMH L SURPHQDPD X ]DKWHYLPD 0RJX ELWL NODVLILNRYDQL NDR SHUVSHNWYQD UHãHQMD ]D RGUÃ¥LYDQR RVLJXUDQMH MHU GLUHNWQR XWLþX QD Ã¥LYQRWQX VUHGLQX EH]EHGQRVW RþXYDQMH L]YRUD L HQHUJLMH L XNXSQR SREROMãDQMH VRFLMDOQLK SUREOHPD .OMXþQH UHþL 2GUÃ¥LYR RVLJXUDQMH 5L]LN äLYRWQD VUHGLQD .OLPDWVNH SURPHQH 2VLJXUDQMH SUHPD XSRWUHEL 7HOHPDWLND

-RXUQDO RI $SSOLHG (QJLQHHULQJ 6FLHQFH




Turn static files into dynamic content formats.

Create a flipbook
Issuu converts static files into: digital portfolios, online yearbooks, online catalogs, digital photo albums and more. Sign up and create your flipbook.