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School of fish ... a safe guide for food security
Global study lTIaps clilTIate risl(s to Africa's food security The study reveals future -hotspots· of risk for hundreds of millions whose food problems ar~ on a collision course with climate change. According to the scientists, disaster looms for parts of Africa and all of India if chronic food insecurity converges with crop-wilting weather; Latin America also vulnerable.
change adaptation efforts on people and places where the potential for harsher growing conditions poses the gravest threat to food production and food security. The researchers pinpointed areas of intense vulnerability by examining a variety of climate models and indicators of food problems to create a series of detailed maps. One shows regions around the world at risk of crossing certain "climate thresholds", such as temperatures too hot for maize or beans - that over the next40years could diminish food production. Another shows regions that may be sensitive to such climate sbifts because in general they have large areas of land devoted to crop and livestock production.And finally, scientists produced maps of regions with a long history of food insecuri-
A NEW stud'f has matched r\future climate change ''hotspol5" with regions already suffering chronic food problems to identify highly-vulnerable populations, dlie!ly in Africa and South Asia, but potentiaUy in China and Latin America as well, where in !ewer than 40 years, the prospect of .shorter, hotter or drier growing seasons could imperil hundreds of millions of alreadyimpoverished people. The report, "Mapping Hotspots of Climate Change and Food Insecurity in the Global Tropics," was produced by the CGI,4.R Research ~· · Programme on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)_ The work was undertaken by a team of scientists responding to an urgent need to focus climate
"When you put these maps together they reveal places around the world where the arrival of stressful growing conditions could be especially Polly disastrous," said Ericksen, a senior sdentist at the CGlAR's International livestock Research Institute (U.RI) in Nairobi, Kenya and the study's lead author. "These are areas highly exposed to climate shiftS, where survival is strongly linked to the fate of regional crop and livestock yields, and where chronic food problems indicate that farmers are already struggling and they lack the capadty to adapt to new weather patterns." "This is a very troubling combination." she added_
ty.
For example, in large parts of South Asia, including almost aU of India, and parts of sulr Saharan Africa, chiefly West Africa, there are 369 million food-insecure people living in agriculture-intensive areas that are highly exposed to a potential five per cent decrease in the length of the growing period. Such a change over the next 40 years could Significantly affect food yields and food access for people, many of them farmers themselves - already living on the edge. Higher temperatures also coued exact a heavy toll. Today, there are 56 nlillion food-insecure and cropdependent people in parts of West Africa, India and China who live in areas where, by tile mid-2050s, maximum daily temperatures during the growing season could exceed 30 degrees Celsius (86 degrees Fahrenheit). This is close to the maximum temperature that beans can tolerate, while maize and rice yields may suf' fer when temperatures exceed this level. Forexample, a study last year in Nature found that even with optimal amounts of rain, African maize yields could decline by one per cent for each day spent above 30'C. Regional predictions for shifts in temperatures and precipitation going out to 2050 were developea by analyzing the outputs of climate models rooted in the extensive data amassed by the Fourth Assessment Rel'ort (AR4) from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Researchers identified popu-
lations as chronically foodinsecure if more than 40 per cent of children under the age of five were "stunted" - that is, they are faU weU below the World Health Organisation's height-for-age standards. "We are starting to see much more clearly where the effect of climate change on agriculture could intensify hunger and poverty, but only.if we rail to pursue appropriate adaptation strategies." said Patti Kristjanson, a research theme leader at CCAFS. "Farmers already adapt to variable weather patterns by changing their planting schedules or moving animals to different grazing areas. What this study suggests is that the speed of climate shifts and the magnitude of the changes required to adapt could be much greater. In some places, farmers might need to consider entirely new crops or new farming systems." Crop breeders at CGIAR centers around the world already are focused on developing socalled "climate ready" crop varieties able to produce high yields in more stressful conditions. For some regions, how· ever, that mil;:ht not be a viable option - 10 parts of East and Southern Africa, for exam· pIe, temperatures may become too hot to maintain maize as the staple crop, requiring a shift to other food crops, suCh as sorghum orcassava, to meet nutrition needs. In addition, farmers who now focus mainly on crop cultivation nlight need to integrate Iivestoc~ and agroforestry as a way to maintaIn and increase food production.
The United States has
THE world will again fall short demanded "legal sym1 of a full climate deal this year, after two past attempts, say metry"in a new ~eal, developed countries, which under which climate wanta narrower focus on forests and funds at resumed UN taJks targets for China in Germany nextweek would have equal Afresh postponement will all but end hopes of a binding force to any commitUN deal to succeed the Kyoto ments by the rich. Protocol before its present round expires at tile end of China says its pdority 2012, leaving a legal gap and must be to grow.its possible makeshift arrangements for years, says Reuters economy to end , report. A summit in Copenhagen poverty. two years ago was blown off Solomon Islands. course by world recession Top climate officials in the and political wrangling. Europea n Union and the Hopes are now dimmed for a United States have already conference in Durban, South said a full deal this year was Africa later this year. beyond reach. A possible comDeveloping countries want promise could see countries to extend Kyoto, which binds in Durban harden existing only rich countries to cut voluntary emissions pledges greenhouse gas emissions after 2012, for example by until 2012. BIJt Japan, Russia attaching a formal time and Canada reject that, prefer- schedule to these in a stopring a new, wider deal in a gap deal fallingshortofa new rich-poor deadlock, which protocol, say negotiators. echoes world trade talks. Without a full deal, there was "In Durban it's almost impos- still much to agree this year, sible to see a legally binding for example on how to raise agreement, if we take into $100 billion in climate aid consideration the positions of annually by 2020, share low· many countries includin,pthe carbon tecllnologies, increase United States and China, said inspection of national action Akira Yamada, who will head and curb deforestation , said Japan's delegation at the next the EU's chief negotiator, round of talks at a two-week Antlr Runge-Metzger. meeting in Bonn, Germany, Countries agreed those steps in prinCiple at a ministerial from June 6-17. China and the United States conference in Mexico at the are the world's top two car- end of last year. "We would bon emitters, but Kyoto does like a practical, pragmatic disnot bind China's soaring cussion in Bonn." said Japan's emissions and the United . Yamada. States was the only industri''There is a lot that can be alised country not to ratify done in the meantime (withthe pact. out a deal)," said Elliot The United States has Diringer, vice president of demanded "legal symmetrY" International Strategies at the in a new deal, under which eli- Pew Centre on Global Climate mate targets for China would Change. Efforts are meant to have equal force to any com- help shift from fossil fuels nlitrnents by the rich. China toward low-carbon tech nolasays its priority must be to giestohelpavertwhattheUN grow its economy to end panel of climate scientists poverty. says will be ever more Many developing nations say droughts, floods and rising an extension of Kyoto is vital. sea levels. "The Kyoto Protocol is an But developing countries essential element of any com- also want discussion on the strategy to most contentious issue, an prehensive address climate change and extended Kyoto Protocol, left also a key to maintaining unclear in Mexico. There was trust between developed and also a stalemate at the most developing countries." said recent talks In Bangkok in Colin Beck, representing the April
World Environment Day symposium of this World Environment IDay,N commemoration a . non-govemmental
Nature at your service." At a press briefing to annOunce the event, organisation, Verte Energy Executive Director of Verte, Development Initiative will tl1is Kunle Johnson, said the Ftidaystagea ta1kshopandgaJa choice of the topic this year is event at the.Terra Kulture, Plot apt, considering the everB76 TiaIlliyu Savage · street, increasing climate change VictorialsJand,Lagos. .. challenge confronting tlie . , Supported by 4gos State world. MinistIyoftbe Environment, He said the programme was Nigeria ... Erivironmental instituted to create more Society (Lagos Island BranCh), awareness on environmental Nigerian· Conservation issues, and to also stimulate Foundation and others, it will interest of the younger generprovide a platform forprofes- .ations on environmental sionals in the environment, matters. At the event, cOrpOrate bOdies, dvil society, Johnson said that different government functionaries, ·awards would be given to academia and other stake- those found to have perholders to network and rub formed well in the quiz comminds oil the subject of this petition of different cateyear's .. ,discourse: "Forest ... gories. yea~s