Cancer Center Service Line
About Healthcare Analytics Planning for the future is more complicated than ever for healthcare organizations. Exploring the impact upon the physical plant due to demand fluctuations, mergers and acquisitions, market conditions and consumer demands requires skillful vetting and interpretation of pertinent data. The understanding of the population demographics, utilization factors, catchment characteristics, trends within specific modalities and migration opportunities are critical to right sizing so that accurate translation of program needs and capital outlays can be evaluated.
Example Study - Cancer Center Cancer Case Load Projections for Denver, CO The IKM Healthcare Analytics group has developed a new process to assist healthcare organizations to better understand and plan for future population growth and disease progression. Through this process, the team is developing strategies for new facility expansion that can manage and sustain current and anticipated healthcare trends. In this example, the team analyzed the Denver, CO market to study population growth and projected cancer diagnosis rates utilizing data from our partners at the Healthcare Advisory Board to better understand the projected need for cancer care in Denver, CO over the next five and ten years. Our team found that in the next ten years there will be an increase in demand of 13.50%. This presents an opportunity for local healthcare organizations to begin strategizing for facility expansion and increased market share.
Oncology Service Line 10 Year Forecast Service Line
2020 Volume Estimate
2025 Volume Forecast
2030 Volume Forecast
5 Year Growth
10 Year Growth
130,101
141,484
158,709
8.7%
22.0%
5
12
27
131.0%
423.1%
Chemotherapy
47,903
53,190
60,038
11.0%
25.3%
Radiation Therapy
82,192
88,282
98,644
7.4%
20.0%
Oncology
Adoptive Cell Transfer
Cancer Center Program Study Case Load Projection Scenarios The Healthcare Analytics team studied a Denver, CO healthcare organization and its growth potential in the cancer care space. Assuming the local healthcare organization’s current market penetration is roughly 2%, the team theorized market growth rates of 3% and 5% by way of mergers and acquisitions, organic facility growth, and migration of cancer patients to the healthcare organization. This helped establish three scenarios in which future case loads could be projected. With this data set, the team looked at pushing the study forward with cases projected for 2025 in each of the three scenarios.
Base Info
50 Mile Radius of Denver, CO FY
Catchment
Total Outpatient
Area Cases
Cases
2020
19,774
355
2025
20,262
2030
22,445
Market Share
Potential Acquisition “A” Cases
Potential Acquisition “B” Cases
(Assuming 3% Market Share)
(Assuming 5% Market Share)
1.8%
593
989
365
1.8%
608
1,013
404
1.8%
673
1,122
SCEN ARIO SCEN ARIO SCEN ARIO
1 2 3
FY
Total Cases
Migration of 10% of
Total
Hospital + “A”
Catchment Balance
Scenario 1
2020
948
1,883
2,831
2025
973
1,929
2,902
2030
1,077
2,137
3,214
FY
Total Cases
Migration of 10% of
Total
Hospital + “B”
Catchment Balance
Scenario 2
2020
1,344
1,843
3,187
2025
1,378
1,888
3,266
2030
1,526
2,092
3,618
FY
Total Cases
Migration of 10% of
Total
Hospital + “A & B”
Catchment Balance
Scenario 3
2020
1,937
1,784
3,721
2025
1,986
1,828
3,813
2030
2,200
2,025
4,224
Cancer Center Infusion Bay Scenario Study With the total number of cases projected for 2025, the Healthcare Analytics team looked to understand the total number of infusion bays needed to address the cases. We factored the total number of operational days per year, utilization ratio, and average infusion time to establish both the number of cases per day and corresponding infusion bays needed. The infusion bay count is a critical factor and must be validated to establish the full facility program.
Cancer Center Program Study Primary Activity Space Calculation
480 250 Operational Days
240 Average Infusion Time (Incl Med Prep & Turnover)
Available Infusion Bay Minutes Required
80% Utilization *Graphics Apply to all 3 Scenarios
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Designed Case Load:
Designed Case Load:
Designed Case Load:
2,902
3,266
3,813
*One Dot Per 100 Cases
*One Dot Per 100 Cases
*One Dot Per 100 Cases
Cases Per Day:
Cases Per Day:
Cases Per Day:
15
16
19
*One Dot Per 2 Days
Infusion Bays Needed: 7.25 *One Dot Per 1 Bay
*One Dot Per 2 Days
*One Dot Per 2 Days
Infusion Bays Needed:
Infusion Bays Needed:
8.17
9.53
*One Dot Per 1 Bay
*One Dot Per 1 Bay
To help validate the number of infusion bays, the team developed a simulation study. This study analyzes a full treatment day against the number of infusion bays and hours required in each bay per case. Through this study, the team discovered there could be unanticipated outliers day to day that would require the number of bays to increase to meet the necessary demand. In Scenario 1, for example, the number of bays would need to increase by 4 to a total of 12 to meet the demand of outliers throughout the day.
Infusion Bay Simulation Analysis Scenario 1: 7.25 Bays Rounded to 8
4 Outliers Result in 12 Total Bays
Daily Work Hours Time in Infusion Bays Case #
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1 2
Outlier 1
3 4
Outlier 2
5 6
Outlier 3
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Outlier 4
Space Program Total Patient Load (Infusion Bays)
Program Element
and meets all requirements dictated by local and national code, and the Healthcare Facility Guidelines.
Infusion Area
detailed space program of net square footage can be developed. With the infusion bay count established, the team can begin developing a facility program. This program includes all clinical, public, staff, and support spaces necessary for a fully functional outpatient cancer center,
The program also includes both a departmental gross square footage factor and a building gross square footage factor. The departmental factor takes into consideration square footage associated with circulation and wall thickness within the departments, as well as stairs, elevators, and shafts. The building factor modifies the departmental factor by adding the exterior wall thickness. While this facility program is established based on prototypical requirements, understanding a facility’s true programming demands requires collaboration between the healthcare planners, facility managers, administration, and staff to be truly effective and function as intended.
Net SQ/FT
Total
Notes
Public Areas Entry/Lobby Waiting Reception / Check In Interview Areas Check Out Front Desk Family Consult Center Administrator Misc Center Offices Meeting Room Center Administration Storage Public Toilet Rooms Subtotal NSF
The primary activity spaces are the building blocks off of which a
Number
Infusion Bays Private Infusion Bay Private Infusion Tlts Exam / Triage POS Exam / Triage Patient Education Consult Family Lounge Nurse Station Staff Workroom Nurse Office Physician Office Med Storage Nourish Clean Utility / Linens Soiled Utility Recliner / Stretcher Storage Storage Housekeeping Patient Toilet Rooms Patient Lockers Subtotal NSF
1 1 2 3 2 1 3 1 3 1 1 2
300 750 120 60 40 200 120 120 100 180 100 200
300 750 240 180 80 200 360 120 300 180 100 400 2,910
10 2 2 3 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 60
80 100 60 100 120 150 120 150 200 200 120 120 100 100 150 100 120 200 60 60 2
800 200 120 300 120 150 120 150 400 200 240 360 100 100 150 100 120 200 60 240 120 4350
Seating for 30
Program Element
Number
Net SQ/FT
Total
Radiation Therapy Area Linear Accelerator LA Control LA Storage CT Scan CT Control CT Equipment CT Storage Exam POS Exam Men Subwaiting Women Subwaiting Dressing Rooms Patient Toilet Holding Bay Nurse Station Nurse Office Physician Office Med Storage Clean Utility / Linen Soiled Utility / Linen Equipment Storage Housekeeping Subtotal Endoscopy
Program Element
Number
Net SQ/FT
Total
Notes
Staff Support 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 5 1 1 1 4 4 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1
800 250 100 400 150 100 100 100 120 100 100 80 60 80 200 120 120 100 150 150 150 60
800 250 100 400 150 100 100 500 120 100 100 320 240 160 200 240 240 100 150 150 150 60 4,730
Changing Rooms Staff Toilet Breakroom Subtotal Clinical Staff Support
1 2 1 1 1 1 1
500 150 200 200 150 120 150
500 300 200 200 150 120 150 1,620
Utility Support
Pharmacy Pharmacy Ante Room Negative Hood Positive Hood Hazard Holding Pharm Office Lab Subtotal Pharmacy
Notes
2 3 1
50 60 200
100 180 200 480
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
150 80 400 120 120 100 100 80 120 60
150 80 400 120 120 100 100 80 120 60 1,330
1 1 1 1
200 200 150 150
200 200 150 150 670
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
80 120 150 200 0 300 0
80 120 150 200 0 300 0 850
Material Management Receiving Area Receiving Clerk Bulk Storage Clean Linen Storage Soiled Linen Holding Trash Holding Hazardous Holding Recycle Holding Office Staff Toilets Subtotal NSF
Share with EVS
Environmental Serv. Bulk Storage Equipment Storage Employee Breakroom / Lockers Office Subtotal NSF
Water Service Entry Hot Water Heaters / Pumps IT Servers Electrical Transformers Emergency Generator Electrical Switchgear Air Handling Units Subtotal NSF Subtotal Net Square Footage
16,940
Departmental Grossing Factor
0.4
6,776
Building Grossing Factor
0.1
2,372
Total Gross Square Footage
26,088
On Roof
Determining Probable Cost Finally, the team studied the projected cost of a new facility utilizing the established program and local market conditions. Based on the input from the study, the team is able to determine a construction unit price per square foot. This unit price helps to determine design fee, FFE estimates (including major equipment purchases), contingency, and a total projected project cost. With this projected cost in mind, healthcare institutions can not only begin analyzing strategies for future development, expansion, and growth for specific modalities to better serve their location population, but also study operating expenses and revenue projections to develop an ROI and determine the viability of a future project.
Cancer Center Program Study Opinion of Probable Costs Project
Description
SF Size
Construction
New
Unit Price SF
Construction
Site Work Shell Construction
Design
FFE
10%
Total Project
and FFE
Contingency
Costs
Category
Cost
$350,00
L
$22,750
$372,750
$37,275
$410,025
$282,509
$4,628,795
$462,880
$5,091,675
26,088
$167
$4,356,696
L
Category
Total with Fees
Cost
Major Departmental Fit Outs 1
Public/Staff Areas
8,947
$132
$1,176,826
M
$94,146
M
$264,786
$1,535,757
$153,576
$1,689,333
2
Clinical Areas
10,996
$373
$4,097,621
H
$389,274
H
$5,184,167
$9,671,063
$967,106
$10,638,169
3
Mechanical & Building
6,145
$88
$538,788
L
$35,021
L
$53,879
$627,688
$62,769
$690,456
Support Miscellaneous Contingency
$325,000
(Other Potential Owner Costs) Total Cost Per SF Excludes Costs Associated with: Land Acquisition Hazardous Material
Means 2019 Avg PGH $4.06 DEN $3.56
Financing 87.68%
$10,519,930
$823,700
$5,502,832
$16,836,053
$1,683,605
$18,844,658
$403
$32
$211
$645
$65
$722
Lin Est Cost CT Scan Est Cost
3,000,000 750,000
Estimated Percentages of Construction Design Fees FFE H 0.095 0.35 L 0.065 0.1 M
0.08
0.225
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