ELLIE’S PLACE

All change

Ellie Sanderson has thought long and hard about the different way of working that is essential to the growth of our industry

Coming out of lockdown has been an interesting and somewhat stressful time for many of us. Not least because a number of us missed out on the lockdown ‘holiday’ that many non-business owners enjoyed.

It’s been a stressful time because we have each managed hundreds of postponed weddings and all the unpicking that go with it. It’s really taken a lot of stamina and drive to plough through most days and weekends. It’s also taken a huge amount of wine!

And talking of wine, I want to raise a glass to those suppliers who carried on during the pandemic to make

dresses for our brides – I salute you.

In fact, I salute any small business that has come out the other side of this insane time intact. Many shops didn’t, my town of Beaconsfield has casualties as does Woodstock – at least ten percent didn’t make it. So well done to all of us who did.

Facts and figures

I re-opened on 15 June and so far so good – we have sold dresses. I do however remain in the ‘cautious camp’ about trading. I think it’s unlikely that we will return to a recognisable “business as usual’ any time soon. Sorry to chuck a bucket of cold water over things but we are facing many challenges, some of which haven’t even happened yet.

To start with, there is a significant downturn in consumer demand; this sits alongside people about to come off furlough only to face redundancy. Despite unprecedented government support, financial wellbeing has deteriorated drastically. Consumer confidence is dropping sharply to levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis. According to 55% of respondents in a recent survey* they expect the general economic situation to get a lot worse in the next 12 months.

Then on top of that are the ridiculous Coronavirus guidelines about marriage ceremonies, which have frankly paralysed our industry. From venues to photographers and florists to bridal retail, these ridiculous ‘guidelines’ have been the kiss of death, not life. The day after that fateful announcement we saw a huge uplift on postponements for the rest of the year. Our brides have spoken and they don’t want to have small weddings.

We also have potential local lockdowns on the horizon and it looks likely that true recovery won’t really get going until spring 2021. I remain hopeful that next year will be incredible if we can all handle the volume.

This year, though, is going to be tough. Many of the retailers I talk to about turnover predict that 2020 figures will be between 40%-50% lower than we had hoped for. Let’s pray these rules are lifted soon and the virus R rate remains under one percent so we can get back to business.

Strategic planning

Making one’s business Covid-secure means that retailers who rely on a large volume of clients will start to feel the pain first. Bridal shops that have six fitting rooms are probably down to three or four. Even if they manage to convert the same number of brides this will mean that 30% less

can be seen. With that in mind, now w New stock investment I have to say that Jesus Peiro is the time to re-think your short-term This is a tough one as we all want new has been a shining light in this business model. If your capacity is stock, but stock remains one of our disastrous mess. Marion tentatively down by 30% your sales will match it. biggest costs. Investing too much now asked if we wanted to take a look Increasing your Average Transaction will mean your new stock could be at the new dresses; she has put no Value is always on my radar, but hanging on the rail to go out of date. pressure on any of us, she has been sadly the past few weeks has shown Not buying now will mean you cannot there throughout with a nod and a number of us that increasing the satisfy demand when it happens. It’s a hello-how-are-you. Marion has average spend at this juncture singlehandedly given JP will not fill the gap. stockists positive hope and

So what strategic planning Many of the retailers I talk to about news from Spain who reshould we be looking at: turnover predict that 2020 figures opened first. She has helped us with the new collection w New bottom line turnover This is the one to chase as we all will be between 40%-50% lower than choices and not forced us in any way. This partnership know; busy selling with a poor we had hoped for. and considered, professional bottom line is frankly pointless. approach has encouraged us Set your target for this then to buy safely and with plans review the following areas. a juggling game and your figures and to pay discussed on an individual w New sales targets instinct will guide you. basis upfront. Set a new sales target for 2020. Use Shame on you suppliers who have the knowledge you have gained in the Consider these points before bullied poor novice or scared retailers past few weeks and use it to predict spending: to buy at this time. Shame on you your trading. Plan for the worst and • We only had our new 2020 suppliers who haven’t partnered or hope for the best. Once you have a collections on the rails for 16 weeks communicated with their retailers clear target in place you can take a until lockdown – they are still new but instead gone silent. It really has hard look at your cost base. and still coveted. been ugly.

Remember to review this monthly • We have sold nothing for 12 weeks at this time. And bear in mind your during lockdown – this makes Looking ahead reduced appointment capacity; you evaluating your return on last year’s However onwards we will move. cannot take the same money if you investment impossible. Use your I know it’s easy to feel safe and see 30% less people. I am open seven history and use your instinct. comfortable now we are open and days a week and cannot get near my • We are unsure what the economy I think it’s good to feel positive and old appointment capacity. This is a will do but we know we are heading upbeat as brides are spending. But key factor – don’t ignore it. towards a global recession. there is a gap that will not be filled in w New staff costs • Treat with caution suppliers who tell 2020: the big question is will it be filled What was your staff cost ratio before you that: “everyone is selling and in 2021 to make up for this commercial lock down in % to sales terms? Do everyone is busy – its YOU”. It is not loss or do we need to just wipe it off you need to cut this now that sales you... they just need to sell too. the slate and move forward? are lower? Don’t forget furlough ends • Develop a relationship with your Whatever happens, I know 2021 soon so you need to be planning if suppliers and work with those who is going to be one hell of year and you can afford to get your all your work with you. our production plans have already girls back. If your sales predictions are started. Holiday schedules are in now lower than your original for 2020 At this point I have to mention the place and we are trying to enjoy a (and I expect 90% of retailers will have insane pressure many bridal shops year off fittings and late nights. We are lower targets) then you will need to have been under during lockdown. all going to need to get our trainers on seriously consider this cut. There has been pressure to for next year.

However, if your business is in a manage their brides, pressure Bring it on, I say. I love a big growth spurt you may be safe. This to juggle the money, pressure to challenge. will be new businesses that are take deliveries into their homes so still developing. Fortunately I sit in this bracket with my new shop in Woodstock as we were about to suppliers can send out invoices, pressure to buy new collections with no re-opening date. Some suppliers Ellie x recruit pre lockdown; I won’t make have shown their true colours and those cuts now and at least it means some of what we have all seen has * source – Resolution Foundation: The Economic everyone’s hours are safe. been blooming ugly. Effects of Coronavirus in the UK