Karin Bäckstrand

Karin Bäckstrand

Professora de Ciências Sociais do Ambiente, Stockholm University Professor in Environmental Social Science, Stockholm University

or my presentation, I will take on political science and international relations and go on to the climate crisis and its now nexus with the Covid-19 pandemic. How do we gather globally to a carbon-neutral society, to decarbonization and renewables? How do we do that and secure effectiveness and legitimacy among citizens? That is an important issue, especially in the times of nationalism and populism. How can governments secure democratic support for a far-reaching societal transformation to a fossil-free society? 2020 was supposed to be the super year for climate and environmental action: with the UN Climate Summit in Glasgow; with new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) by the states; with the EU Green Deal presented in December; and with a proposal for a new EU Climate Law, where the EU is going to be a carbon-free continent in 2050. All the things from 2019 were an acceleration towards this, such as the UN Climate Summit, in New York, where Greta Thunberg spoke with the new Commission. Everything was set up for the super year 2020. And then came Covid-19.

I want to speak about the aspects of the nexus of Covid-19 and climate change. What is the impact for the international and

Fmultilateral EU framework of the Covid-19 crisis? That is the first topic I will discuss because it is imperative, in this double crisis that we have now — of the pandemic and climate change — that the multilateral EU framework and international collaboration are working. Secondly, what is the impact of Covid-19 on climate and air pollution? There is a decrease in greenhouse gas emissions, and there is improved air pollution, but as many argue, and I will argue, these are just temporary reductions in emissions. As with the financial crisis in 2008, if we do not transform our transport systems and our lifestyles, we will be back on the same track again. Thirdly, and this is the million-dollar question: will Covid-19 accelerate climate transition and the renewable energy transition, or will it cause a carbon lock-in as jobs and the economy are receiving higher priority? I should say I see myself as an optimistic realist and I think Covid-19 is a window of opportunity, as Winston Churchill said, “never let a good crisis go to waste”. There are some positive signs, as we have transformed our lifestyles in a few months because of a deadly pandemic. Can we retain some of these transformations, such as the digitalization, regarding climate change? That is the key question. But first, the question of the consequences for global collaboration on the Covid-19 crisis. Both Covid-19 and climate are prime examples of global collective action problems that can only be handled in a global response by almost 200 states

multilaterally. The virus does not respect borders, carbon emissions do not respect borders and the consequences for Covid-19, and climate change, are additionally worse for the global south and developing countries that are vulnerable and with weaker health systems. Climate change, biodiversity and Covid-19 are linked to multiple cascading crises, and they must be handled by strong multilateral global institutions.

It is a paradox that initially during the crisis, states acted according to a sovereign logic, very unilaterally and nationally. We saw that in the EU, with initial non-coordination of activities and, of course, populism and nationalism reinforce this. We now see consequences of this as the US wants to leave the World Health Organization (WHO), which undermines the multilateral framework, just as Donald Trump leaving The Paris Agreement and the United Kingdom leaving the EU with Brexit. It is very easy to be pessimistic because nationalism and populism undermining multilateral organi-

zations is a disaster for global institutions. However, it also shows that these countries who retreat from multilateralism — USA, Brazil and the UK – have had negative consequences for the economy. It is the perfect illustration that alone is not strong.

To be more positive, after the immediate crisis, the EU acted more coordinated — with the Next Generation EU and The European Green Deal — showing the importance of global and regional institutions that can coordinate countries’ strategies and allocate resources according to a just principle. Now, 6 or 9 months into the pandemic, we can see the first seeds to a green recovery in the form of EU deals. Here are some reasons why I am optimistic.

First, if we look at the financial crisis of 2008, many hoped for a green recovery and a transformation towards a fossil-free society. It did not happen. However, now there are other conditions met that can make us more optimistic. We had momentum in 2019 with the Fridays For Future, with Greta Thunberg, which shifted public opinion in many countries. For example, most EU citizens think climate change is a real problem that the EU should tackle.

Secondly, we also see momentum from the business and private sectors. The green energy and wind renewable energy industries want to be part of this transition and circular economy. Thirdly, we have lots of existing legislation in place — compared to 2008 —, countries with new climate laws, the new Green Deal in the European Union and the EU Climate Law.

Lastly, leadership is crucial in these situations. Looking at the EU again, we had a new Commission with Ursula von der Leyen and Frans Timmermans who pushed to keep to the Green Deal even through the pandemic. Needless to say, that is a contrast with the non-leadership of the American President.

I want to stress the global perspective because we focus very much on our countries and how we should solve the pandemic nationally, but we need to strengthen the development cooperation for aid for the global south. Countries like Peru or South Africa are very much hit by the pandemic, and they also need climate funding.

Both Covid-19 and climate are prime examples of global collective action problems that can only be handled in a global response by almost 200 states multilaterally.

Of course, the pandemic has led to positive environmental effects: air pollution has gone down in many cities, biological diversity has been restored — due to less car transport and industrial production — and global greenhouse gas emissions have gone down, because the two greenhouse gas giants in the world, China and the US, have had an economic recession. But it is very important to say that this will not be long-term.

Covid-19, climate and biological diversity are linked as a triple threat to our society and should be addressed holistically, through international and EU collaboration. All of these threats are deadly, not only Covid-19 — as we see with 1 million dead — but also climate change, both long and short-term, causing, for example, temperature rises and deadly fires. We need to be very smart and collaborate on these pieces. I want to stress this: I think this is a window of opportunity.