A Sit-Down with Bob Breck

The Storm Guide editors caught up with renowned meteorologist, Bob Breck. With decades of experience in forecasting and tracking severe weather patterns, Bob is a trusted authority throughout Louisiana. Throughout his distinguished career, he has witnessed and analyzed numerous catastrophic weather events, providing critical information to our Greater New Orleans communities, and ensuring their preparedness. In this interview, we delve into Bob’s expertise, discussing his insights on weather forecasting, the impact of climate change, and his advice for individuals and communities when facing severe weather situations.

How do you make that decision to leave or stay for a hurricane?

You must know your location and you must know your elevation. If you choose to leave, evacuation is expensive. And it could happen several times in a hurricane season. How many families are living paycheck to paycheck and can’t do that! Sometimes it depends on a person’s age and family situation. If you’re older, do you want to live through two weeks without power or air conditioning? So, you drive a few hours and get out of the zone. It’s an easy call. When you have young children, you don’t want to put them at risk of riding out a storm. You prepare for the worst and hope for the best. It’s a worn out saying but it’s reality. You have to assume it’s going to be that bad. what we’ve seen. Somewhat concerning is that the last 2-4 years, the storms in the gulf have strengthened just before landfall. Ida kept gaining strength as it came in and that really took people off guard. The one last year that hit Ft. Meyers just destroyed Sanibel. People were stunned that the damage was that bad. With the current warming cycle, it has caused them to be more intense. I doubt that pattern will last forever because history shows we go through these cycles of warming, followed by one of cooling. I think we’ll enter this [cooling cycle] in the next 3-5 years.

Let’s address the decision to stay. Not everyone needs to evacuate. You must have three very necessary things aside from food and water if you choose to stay and ride out the storm.

The first is elevation. If you’re on the Southshore, what is your elevation? It’s a second story. If you don’t have that, then you can’t stay. You must have a 2nd story of elevation that is your final life raft. If you’re on the Northshore but south of Monroe Street, you should know you’re going to flood. Surprisingly a lot of people just don’t know how big their flood risk is.

The third is access to power. Very few have a home generator. It’s expensive but also very necessary if you’re going to stay and there are weeks without power, as it becomes very uncomfortable in our summer heat.

How long have you been a meteorologist?

I started in 1971 - so 50 something years. I’ve always tried to be entertaining to keep people watching but I would sneak in some education, so people didn’t even know they were learning. These days I’m helping channel 8 with mentoring their current meteorologists because storytelling is an art.

Do you think we’re better prepared today for storms than we were in the past?

We’re way better prepared in terms of technology advances, primarily from cell phone alerts. St. Tammany puts out warnings and advisories and as soon as they hit the button it alerts you. If you have a cell phone, get a weather app that will alert you.

What’s the most challenging weather event you’ve had to forecast?

From your perspective, how is the upcoming hurricane season looking?

Years ago, there was only one guy who came out with a preseason prediction. Now everyone is coming out with their opinion. What do I think? Usually none of them are correct, so you must have some kind of preparedness plan. Preseason predictions are for the planners, the mayors, and the governors…and it’s a lose/ lose situation.

My prediction is that predictions don’t tell you much. We do know the global pattern has shifted from La Nina to El Nino. The El Nino is usually good for us in that it increases the upper-level winds and that should mean most storms will threaten the eastern gulf and not the middle gulf. That doesn’t mean we won’t get any storms, but El Nino typically means fewer total number of storms, and the risk probably will focus on the east coast of FL on up the east coast of the US.

You’ve been tracking our storms for a very long time. Does the evidence show that we are getting more severe storms more frequently?

We are in a warming cycle, beginning in the 80s. These cycles typically go on for 30-40 years. In a warming cycle, it usually means storms will be stronger and more intense. And that’s

It had to be the Xenia, Ohio tornado in 1974. It came within 25 miles of my television station at the time and killed 35 people. Xenia got hammered and we didn’t have the cell phone warnings or equipment that we have today. TV and radio were the only ways to get out the warnings. Locally, it obviously had to be [Hurricane] Katrina. Since [Hurricane] Camille there had never been a storm like Katrina.

How do you get people out of harm’s way? I did it by reading on air the National Weather Service bulletin where they said, “There will be neighborhoods uninhabitable for weeks or perhaps months after this storm” and that had an impact on people who left before the storm hit. The real problem was bad levees. They were built on the cheap and they failed. The system has been rebuilt much stronger - there should be no levee failures, so I’m feeling confident in your adequate elevation, window shutters, and generator.

How can people follow you?

I have a daily blog during the season at bobbreck.com. During the past few hurricanes, it’s had over 1M hits. I have followers from the Carolinas to Texas, and I’d love to have all your readers as followers.

As hurricane season approaches, it’s crucial for Louisiana residents to be well-prepared and equipped to face potential storms. By taking proactive measures and following a comprehensive checklist, you can ensure the safety of yourself, your loved ones, and your property. Here’s a step-by-step guide to help you prepare for an impending hurricane: