RESTAURANTS AT THE END OF THE UNIVERSE FOODSERVICE IN FLUX

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“As the economy settles down, the UK eating-out market should return to growth in real terms”. Publicans reading that forecast, made by analyst Mintel in its UK Eating Out 2023 report, could be forgiven for scratching their heads and trying to recall what a settled economy feels like.

Most of the factors that have “unsettled” the eating-out market in recent years – in much the same way that King Kong regularly “unsettled” the unfortunate residents of Skull Island – are still very much with us.

Supply lines into the UK remain more complicated due to post-Brexit trading arrangements, and there is a significant labour shortage across the hospitality sector. Food and drink inflation is at stubbornly high levels, and for the most part, the higher prices pubs are paying suppliers are now here to stay.

For customers eating out, that means bills at the end of the meal are high; in some cases higher than they might have been expecting. For others, while they know they’ll be paying more to eat out, they will also be paying serious attention to the quality, service and value received. As one of the licensees interviewed this issue says, in the current market “everything has to be perfection”.

Mintel’s research also spotlights some changing habits when it comes to eating out. Around one in four is ordering meals for delivery, and a similar number want to order from set menus in order to manage their spend. Younger people in particular like to order meals using mobile apps, and will take advantage of any discounts, deals and rewards they are offered when doing so. While not all pubs can, or need to, adapt their menu model to meet all these changing consumer expectations, others will need to consider embracing new opportunities.

So, businesses have to deal with continuing challenges on the food supply side, both in terms of price and availability, as well as changing customer expectations not only in terms of quality, but also in the way they order and receive their pub grub.

That settled-down economy still seems a way off.