looking forward to 2010
INDEX: WISHES TO THANK OUR PARTNERS: INDEX: MAIN PARTNERS
COLOPHON Published by: INDEX: Written by: John L. Petersen, The Arlington Institute, USA In collaboration with: Arnold Wasserman, The Idea Factory, Singapore and Bruce Damer, Digital Space Commons, USA Printed on: Soporset Premium Offset Designed by: L.P. Ferdinandsen / Stendhal unit Printed by: Illemann Tryk Published: November 2004
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INDEX: FUTURE SCENARIOS INDEX: is an international design event that works on two levels: The level where every four years, starting in September 2005, we hand out the biggest design awards in the world and present major international design exhibitions and debates in Copenhagen. The level where we work together with an international network of designers, creative leaders, businesses and authorities.
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On both levels INDEX: focuses on Design to Improve Life, e.g. design as a tool and a method to make vast improvements in the lives of many people. Part of improving life is foreseeing the future, and as we all know that is quite impossible. But what we can do is to project global drivers from our present and try to figure out their impact on the future. And we must participate in creating a wanted future as opposed to an unwanted future.
INDEX: ASSOCIATED PARTNERS
Danish Design Centre
OTHER DESIGN EVENTS IN COPENHAGEN IN 2005 INDEX: is not the only design event in Copenhagen in 2005: Era 05: The world congress for the three major organizations of professional designers is expected to draw 2000 international designers. The event is set to take place in Copenhagen between 24 and 29 September.
INDEX: SUPPORT PARTNERS Illemann Tryk
FOUNDATIONS Oticon Fonden
Cumulus: A network of European design colleges is slated to hold its annual assembly in Copenhagen between 23 and 26 September. The event is expected to draw representatives from 60 international design colleges. The Danish Architecture Centre (DAC) features the third part of the DAC:rethink trilogy created by architect Kim Utzon, son of Sydney Opera House architect Jørn Utzon. The Danish Design Centre features a number of exhibitions with Danish and international designers.
These scenarios are made as projections of major drivers in our present. They are created for INDEX: by John. L. Petersen, Arlington Institute, Washington in collaboration with Arnold Wasserman, The Idea Factory, Singapore and Bruce Damer, Digital Space Commons, California. The scenarios are created with the western world as a starting point. They might look different in other parts of the world. The scenarios were initially published by INDEX: for design students in India, Chile, China, South Africa, USA, The United Arab Emirates and Denmark and for selected designers from all over the world, as the starting point for their works for the electronic INDEX: exhibition Future Scenarios. Now the scenarios are published broadly – to inspire everyone to take part in the creation of a wanted future and to realize the potential of Design to Improve Life. Kigge Hvid Director, INDEX:
If you would like to know more about Danish design, visit www.ddc.dk Politiken-Fonden
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INTRODUCTION FOCUSING QUESTION The first step toward building a set of scenarios is to determine the focus. In the INDEX: context, design is described very broadly, and since INDEX: works with Design to Improve Life in the whole world, our focus must be a global one. We are also trying to describe possible worlds in terms that can directly inform the design process, writ large, so we must look at futures specifically with that in mind. This central theme of these scenarios is therefore: How might the global context for human existence evolve between now and 2010, described in terms that can be directly related to the full spectrum of design activities?
ESTABLISHING THE UNDERLYING FRAMEWORK The scenarios are built upon a well thought out framework that provides a common architecture for each individual perspective. The framework is derived from thinking through all of the major issues that are most important to and influence the focus question.
CRITICAL ISSUES Our scenarios, to be useful, must be built around issues central to the future of humanity, not those which are tangential. They must be critical – and are thus called Critical Issues. After amassing a large collection of these critical issues, they are then distilled into a small manageable group of issues that is considered most critical. There are two types of critical issues: predetermined elements and critical uncertainties.
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1. PREDETERMINED ELEMENTS Predetermined Elements are critical issues that, barring a major catastrophe that fundamentally changes the global landscape, are highly likely to be known quantities at the time of our scenario horizon. These are issues that will be in play with known characteristics regardless of which particular scenario world evolves. The following Predetermined Elements will have great influence during the coming years:
2. CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES The importance of Predetermined Elements is that all of them will exist in every scenario; they provide the common underpinnings to all of the future worlds.
Critical issues that are not predetermined are naturally uncertain. They are the hinge issues around which alternative futures revolve, and are known as Critical Uncertainties. These issues are critical – they are very influential in the futures we will consider – and at the same time they are uncertain and could swing one way or another, causing quite different futures in each case.
Aging of the developed world The average age of the “have nations” will increase significantly as the baby-boomers move into predominating societies. Governments and societies will by necessity adjust to provide for this large number of elderly citizens.
Increasing numbers of scientists question whether humanity is facilitating a rapid change in the global weather climate to the point that some suggest that the early indicators are already pointing toward a major shift. If correct, 2010 could be quite a different place from what we are familiar with.
Energy sources These critical uncertainties will be most relevant in the next decade to our focusing question:
Growing population The world’s population will continue to grow significantly during the next five years with important effects, primarily for developing countries. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the global population in 2015 is projected to be 7.1 billion. The world can expect to experience a continued struggle with the increasing disparity between the “have” and “havenot” societies, food and water scarcity, and pollution, as well as urbanization in poor parts of the world.
Rapid climate change
Effects of dramatically advancing technology Computer and communications technology and the Internet will only become more pervasive, powerful and sophisticated over the next five years. Biotechnology will have a profound impact on life as we know it, giving us the ability to control life in ways never before imagined. Cognitive technology, nanotechnology, and robotics will also strongly emerge as will quantum computing. While the rapid development of technology is a certainty, there are so many ways in which areas like biotech, nanotechnology and quantum computing could produce unexpected and incomprehensible impacts that technology must be considered a critical uncertainty.
There are great political and technological pressures to move to alternative energy sources. Within five years it may or may not be clear that we have entered a new, post-petroleum energy age.
Global epidemic There is great international concern about the possibility of an outbreak of a worldwide epidemic spread across the planet by air travellers. SARS and bird flu are just two of several very deadly diseases that, if not contained, could make the general social psychology of 2010 very different.
The human ability to respond to great change The relative ability of our species to adjust to change rather than fight it will fundamentally shape the coming future.
Materials science advancements Increased sensitivity to environmental issues The sensitivity of humanity to environmental issues will increase, driven significantly by generations of young people who see their relationship to the natural world in fundamentally different ways and by certain increases in pollution already in place.
Increased stress between society and technology Because social systems change at a much slower rate than technology, it is certain that there will in the the future be more areas of conflict – like stem cell research and cloning of humans – between ethical, moral and legal perspectives and the economic forces driving technological development. These issues will be exacerbated by the ease with which technology development can move to any desired place in the world, facilitated by the Internet.
China a more powerful economic power It is almost certain that China, because of its size and rapid economic development, will be a much more significant player in the worlds we are considering.
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There will almost certainly be significant new material science breakthroughs in the next five years that will produce new materials (like buckyballs) with new and exotic properties that will allow existing needs to be solved in much better, more efficient and less harmful ways. Some of these may facilitate fundamental change … or maybe not.
Globalization As free trade continues to be promoted across the world - driven in part by information and communications technology - the global economy will continue to thrive with major impact on rich and poor countries. The international economic environment will present new possibilities and depending upon how key global players pursue globalization, it may be seen as inevitable and ultimately positive or fundamentally exploitive and very negative.
Terrorism In an increasingly strained world of ideologies, the presence of terrorism has become an extremely volatile issue. Whether major terrorist attacks certain to be attempted in the coming years succeed or are quelled will significantly shape the world of 2010.
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DRIVING CONCEPTS In order to make the critical issues manageable in the scenario process, they must be distilled into two Driving Concepts. The objective of this process is to identify two basic metrics that encompass the major concepts that underlay and describe groups of critical uncertainties. Two mutually exclusive concepts that synthesize a number of critical issues are required. In these scenarios, we are describing a global context that on one hand is characterized by unprecedented change and at the same time questions the ability of human social systems to effectively adapt to the magnitude and rate of change. So the big question relative to 2010 is: How well are humans coping with the inevitable change? The change, of course, could and will be both positive and negative. Depending upon which dominates – or is perceived to dominate – quite different worlds will emerge. The design imperative will be to attempt to offset the negative worlds and help facilitate the positive ones.
THE TWO INDEX: DRIVING CONCEPTS ARE: CONTEXTUAL THREAT This metric incorporates a spectrum that describes two extremes: a context that is relatively benign and manageable – called a disbursed threat environment and one that is far more threatening: a significant focused threat. Large-scale terrorism, rapid climate change, and epidemics are all obvious examples of a threatening world. An energy revolution that makes fossil fuels obsolete would probably be seen as promoting a positive world. The presumption is that there will be a number of critical issues in play and what we are describing is the perceived net effect of all of them.
SOCIAL INNOVATION AND ADAPTABILITY The core determinant of how well social systems manage emerging threats is locked into their ability to innovate and adapt organically to change. New worlds require new ideas, but new ideas have no value unless they are implemented – in this case, quickly. The organism needs to be able to reconfigure itself efficiently to conform to the new reality. A society that can rapidly shift and see the world in new ways will also interpret fewer events or trends as threats. So our two extremes reflect a social system that: • either adapts well – a highly adaptable society • or one that is ineffective at adapting to the dramatic changes around it - a change-adverse society. In the end, scenarios are about people and how they might behave in different situations. Our two Driving Concepts posit the fundamentals which produce behaviour: the quality of the context and the ability of the individual (or society) to adapt to the context.
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SCENARIO UNIVERSE
SCENARIO 1: “NEVER AGAIN!”
THREAT PERCEPTION
CHANGE ADVERSE
With the degree of Contextual Threat on the X-axis, and the Degree of Adaptability on the Y-axis, the intersection of the driving forces creates four distinct possible scenarios.
Each quadrant represents a possible world. In each world, predetermined elements exist, and critical uncertainties will determine the various paths to each quadrant.
DISPERSED THREAT
NEVER AGAIN! SOCIAL ADAPTABILITY
FOCUSED THREAT
HIGHLY ADAPTABLE
DISPERSED THREAT
THREAT PERCEPTION SOCIAL ADAPTABILITY
FOCUSED THREAT
HIGHLY ADAPTABLE
CHANGE ADVERSE
SOCIETY IS HIGHLY ADAPTABLE TO CHANGE, THE CONTEXTUAL THREAT IS DISPERSED
organized, connected, adaptive global community. Critical uncertainties are the likely cause of this endpoint.
This is a world where no clear enemies and threats exist, and yet, society is highly adaptive. To achieve the change in the social system to one of such flexibility without an impending threat presupposes a significant catalytic event that influenced that mind shift. This world would most likely have experienced a monumental event or events that demanded a new sense of cooperation along with unprecedented connectivity around the world.
The objective here is not to be accurately descriptive of what happened, but rather to posit the kind and class if events that could have driven this change and realize that any number of other events could have the same effect. The following paths are possible ways in which the world reached this point:
As a result, humanity is focused on addressing the clear threats on the horizon with the new imperative: “Never Again!” With a secure environment and advanced technological infrastructure, i.e. complex Internet, telecommunications network, high-speed computing, etc., this world is ready to experience a thriving global economy and an era of progressive international diplomacy. The future promises to be full of growth and increased opportunity for everyone.
Terrorism The conflict between the different nations and terrorist networks ultimately escalated to an international disaster. A nuclear bomb in a major city, or a large-scale bio-terrorism attack could have been the cause for this potential emergency. No matter what the reason, the world found itself in a state of shock and realized it could not continue on this path. Collaborative efforts among all nations began to rid the world of terrorism and equip it for any eventuality.
Rapid climate change
HOW DID WE GET HERE? The global system changes rapidly only when there is a major catalytic event that drives the change. The Never Again scenario describes a world after some significant event has occurred that forced a new commitment to dealing effectively with potential threats. Something happened to bring about an
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The rapid climate change that some scientists feared did materialize, leaving the world with a vastly different environment. As temperatures and water levels rise, everyone scrambles to save themselves and stop any further damage. Once under control, the world is left with a different climate and an advanced communication infrastructure created out of necessity.
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Global epidemic In dealing with a fast-moving epidemic, scientists and governments everywhere had to cooperate to find a cure quickly. Breakthroughs in science came rapidly, and governments made huge strides in international relations. The world came together to create a community that can readily adapt to a similar future threat.
society. In Never Again! the new global community chooses to recognize and deal with these elements.
DESIGN ELEMENTS Designwise Scenario 1 will raise the need for the design of new strategies, services and products within all five INDEX: categories:
HOW DOES THIS WORLD WORK?
Body
No matter what the catalytic event was, information and scientific technologies have exploded with growth and people became accustomed to a fastpaced world focused on finding threats and eliminating them. New technologies that expand the uses of the Internet have far-reaching effects on the world’s capacity to share information. Sophisticated virtual networks and communities of people all over the world rely on the most advanced communications technologies ever seen. After experiencing a near collapse of the system as they knew it, businesses now have an even greater incentive to invest in technology, because survival depends upon their ability to handle critical uncertainty. The world continues towards an interconnected global economy. Similarly, governments depend on technology to monitor the horizon, communicate with other nations, and prepare for the possibility of another uncertainty.
People in this world will have a newfound appreciation for life and great hope for the future. They feel free and relieved. There is a focus on the body, in some places the focus is on peace of mind and psychological strengthening of the body, in other places people will want to feel strong and look young through physical activites. The inclination will be to use technology to achieve those results.
The other common theme of scenario 1 is that it leaves the world with a sense of global community. Threats are no longer viewed entirely as someone else’s problem. With a global tragedy comes a global understanding that isolationism is no longer a responsible solution. In this sense, information technology is used to facilitate the extensive cooperation between governments, universities, foundations, and just plain everyday people. This context of technology can then be applied to the predetermined elements that exist in this and every one of our worlds. Most notably, the advances in technology will drive China’s development, environmental concerns, and the stress between technology and society. China will undoubtedly benefit from the growth in technology. IT will probably expedite the economic growth of China. From an environmental perspective, citizens are more concerned and informed of the potential negative consequences of current practices. Scientists, businesses, and governments are likely to find it easier to implement new technologies and programs with this global community now in place. On the other hand, the advances in technology may be too fast for society to keep up. Ethical and legal concerns will arise, but this is an adaptive world, and the stress is less because people are generally committed to moving ahead and dealing with change. The growing population and aging demographics, though, will continue to pose an eventual threat to
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Work Businesses will be focusing on getting in line with the concept of a global network. Communications and access to a great cultural and professional diversity in the workforce will play a large role in maintaining a competitive advantage.
Home People feel safe in their homes in this world. They will want to live the most comfortable life possible. They want their homes to be open, friendly, lively and equipped with tools that make it easy and cheap to be in contact with other people around the world. As a result, the design possibilities are endless.
Play With the rapid expansion of technology, different types of virtual recreation are likely to become popular. Leisure activities for groups are required. Also, as people feel safe with their environment, they are likely to travel a considerable amount.
Community Clearly, the focus is no longer just on the local community anymore. Organizations across the world will be able to interact and pool resources to create a broad network of community programs. There is a sense of responsibility, and thus the urge to participate in democratic processes will grow.
and which has a specific time table. Scientists across the world would focus on deterring the asteroid, but it ultimately comes down to the moment of impact.
SCENARIO 2: “SCOUT WORLD”
seen to be contributing factors to the major threat on the horizon, this world has the potential to address all of the predetermined elements effectively; it is just a matter of its priorities.
Nuclear weapon In a renewed arms race, two nations are escalating to the point of nuclear warfare. The world is closely in tune with the growing crisis, but there is little it can do to discourage the opponents from acting. Instead, the rest of the world must intensify its ability to cope with the ensuing situation.
DISPERSED THREAT
THREAT PERCEPTION
CHANGE ADVERSE
SOCIETY IS ADAPTABLE TO CHANGE, THE CONTEXTUAL THREAT IS FOCUSED
Consequently, the path to scenario 2 is a significant build up to the point just before the potential threat becomes a reality.
This is a world on the brink of disaster. Threats loom, but like a society of Boy Scouts, we are prepared. It is Scout World.
A recent example of this type of build-up is the Year 2000 phenomenon. Year 2000 was a clear threat that was thought to have the potential to shut down much of the world’s technological infrastructure. Across the globe, enormous amounts of resources were poured into finding a solution for the big threat on the horizon. Ultimately, a solution was found, and Year 2000 passed with little consequence.
Within the past five years, an identifiable threat of a significant enough magnitude must have emerged to motivate people across the globe to prepare for action. The need for pre-emption is the norm in this world. People have utilized their superior technological ability to monitor the impending threat, and they have done everything possible to plan for the potential aftermath. Society, as a whole, has been structured for change and is ready for anything. Everyone is braced for impact.
That success, however, only accentuates the kind of uncertainty that exists in this world. Considering the critical uncertainties that are in play, a number of emergent events could have brought the world to this point:
Rapid climate change
Consequently, an air of uncertainty characterizes this world. Short-term thinking and planning tends to crowd out the long-term mindset of Never Again!. With this short-term, uncertain approach, people are generally ready for whatever happens next.
With the capabilities to closely monitor the world’s environment, technology could have discovered some sort of impending disaster concerning the world’s weather system. By planning ahead and preparing for life in a much warmer or colder place, people are simply waiting for the event that will create a vastly different climate.
HOW DID WE GET HERE?
Asteroid
The most important thing about Scout World is that the worst is yet to come. The only thing for certain is that it’s coming.
While the possibility of an outer space crisis is not a critical uncertainty previously addressed, it is a perfect example of a threat that is seen in the distance
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Design wise Scenario 2 will raise the need for the design of new strategies, services and products within all five INDEX: categories.
Body
SCOUT WORLD SOCIAL ADAPTABILITY
FOCUSED THREAT
HIGHLY ADAPTABLE
DESIGN ELEMENTS
HOW DOES THIS WORLD WORK? Like the Never Again! scenario, Scout World thrives on its technological infrastructure. The connectivity of the world is highly developed, and the global network of people can react quickly to events. Information sharing is a crucial aspect of the anticipatory and preemptive nature of this world. Without technology at this level of complexity and change, people lose their ability to adapt to ever-present uncertainty. Because society is adaptive, it is willing to change and take the necessary steps to handle anything that seems to be approaching. Governments spend money to prepare nations for emergencies. Businesses use innovation as the answer to everything. Both the public and private sector have an extreme interest in continual research and development to further enhance their adaptability. The last thing they want is to have the big event come, and prove incapable of enduring the aftermath. People question everything, wondering if the current systems are the best way to plan for the future. When change is needed, it happens quickly and sometimes roughly. Conventional practices may not always prevail as people realize that change is the key to survival. The societal norms that tend to maintain the status quo are challenged and even broken. In the context of change and forward thinking, two things could happen with the predetermined elements that exist in Scout World. Problems like poverty, environmental abuses and social policy concerns could worsen, as the majority of people focus on the short-term threats. Conversely, such problems could receive new attention from people inspired to take the trend of social change and apply it to these less prominent problems. Predetermined elements can be responded to differently by society’s ability to adapt. The Scout World society, facing a bigger problem, will probably make quick (wrong?) decisions when the conflict between science and ethics rears its head. The growing population and aging demographics will continue to pose threats that cannot completely be answered with technology. Scout World denizens may put off long-term solutions to address these elements, or, if some of the historical, enduring problems are
New trends and fads are quite prominent in this world, as people are ready and willing to latch onto the next big thing. People feel a sense of urgency to be ready for disaster, which very well may mean being in shape and ready both mentally and physically.
Work Businesses thrive on innovation. Staying one step ahead of competitors and one step ahead of anything that poses a threat to a company’s business environment is what drives the workplace. Consulting programs are needed to model and prepare companies for the big event. And since human capital is the most important element of innovation, human resource development is paramount.
Home Depending on the nature of the looming event, people may be inclined to relocate in preparation. With uncertainty, people want to feel as much certainty as possible, which might lead to more homes being built. Home oriented people also want to feel secure and install any gadget that they feel might enable them to cope with any catastrophe.
Play Similar to Body, people will want to try new entertainments. They will want to expose themselves to a variety of activities. As society moves away from conventional thought, entertainment has an even greater potential to be the premiere form of expression across the world. • Resurgence of arts • Assuming the airways are safe, people will likely travel to new places • Technology will be a key source of entertainment
Community Community is an interesting aspect of this world. There will be a huge focus on solving the most immediate problems. But with a new mindset to adapt and change the status quo, opportunities to create organizations that address new problems will arise. We will see an increase in global organizations to address the predetermined elements, Local communities that want to provide their citizens with numerous recreational options and municipalities of all sizes will need help in planning for the future and the aftermath.
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SCENARIO 3: “DEER IN THE HEADLIGHTS”
DISPERSED THREAT
THREAT PERCEPTION
DEER IN HEADLIGHTS
SOCIAL ADAPTABILITY
FOCUSED THREAT
HIGHLY ADAPTABLE
CHANGE ADVERSE
SOCIETY IS UNABLE TO ADAPT, THE CONTEXTUAL THREAT IS FOCUSED This world is a metaphorical Deer in Headlights. Society’s ability to adapt to change is extremely low, and as a result the impending threat simply terrifies people. With a short time frame to work in, there is little to no chance the world will prepare itself adequately to handle the big event, whatever it may be. It is not that this world is inept; it is that no cohesive vision exists to unite the people. Without such vision, governments and businesses argue over the best way to prepare but do little to act. The greatest flaw of this world is that it fails to understand the value of cooperation. Aside from a fragmented social setting, this world also lacks the necessary capabilities to monitor and react to critical uncertainties. This world is scared. This world needs direction, leaders, and action. Until then, this world has a dark outlook on the horizon.
HOW DID WE GET HERE? The path to the Scenario 3 world is either one of stagnation and denial or one of total shock. In one case, there have been no powerful forces to shake up the world and get people focused on the problems that lie ahead. Certainly some – perhaps a very vocal minority – see the impending disaster and continue
to make waves, but the status quo forces – generally citing the economic cost of making big changes – discount the “science” behind the prognostications. Like the deer in the road, they don’t understand what it is that is coming. “It isn’t clear,” they say. More studies are commissioned. On the other hand, a series of rapid, closely-coupled, significant events could have left the world in a state of shock and disarray, unable to recover and prepare for the next threat. Or maybe it was just one major failure - collapse of the Internet? - that took away the capability to respond. In both cases, the world seems to be paralyzed in the face of a major threat. There are many potential threats that - if they happened or were on the near horizon - could make Deer In The Headlights a reality. Some examples are:
Terrorism If terrorists around the world were to strike numerous locations in a coordinated plan, the world would be in a state of disarray. Once the people of the world are disoriented, they will not be able to handle the next looming threat in the near future. There is a widespread sense of panic as a result. The events need not be limited to just terrorism, though.
Ozone hole enlargement The ozone hole over the South Pole suddenly begins enlarging significantly, year after year, and science
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determines that pollutants put in the air a decade ago have begun a sequence that will get much worse before it gets better. Large-scale destruction of human and animal life is coming.
minds are narrowing, the chasm of ethical dilemmas between technology and society will be a constant source of conflict.
Energy shock
DESIGN ELEMENTS
The kingdom of Saudi Arabia is brought down by Islamic fundamentalists who systematically begin to dismantle the country’s oil infrastructure, because it, after all, is the source of the money that brings the western influences into the country. Oil prices go to $150 a barrel and the world rapidly slides into a global depression.
In a world of apathy or exhaustion how will we live? This scenario presents a spectrum of possibilities in each of the INDEX: categories.
Body Apathy and exhaustion don’t lead to exercise. In fact, people may be prone to turning to food as their comfort. Nothing about this world indicates that there will be a surge in overall health.
HOW DOES THIS WORLD WORK? The most peculiar thing about this world is that it has technology but not answers. Scientists make advances everyday in a variety of fields, but only a few seem to join together and focus on the immediate problems of the world. Perhaps they’re making money and feeling good, or extraordinarily exhausted and unable to focus. Communication around the globe is highly advanced and connected but the technology is not moving in a direction to address threats. Consequently, there is an absence of a global community in this scenario. People either are oblivious to the threat or pursue their lives cautiously, avoiding risk wherever possible. Such caution would, of course, have a large impact on progress. Business and other institutions are doing their best to produce predictability rather than learning to deal with change. They want to know exactly what they can expect, and they do not take the types of risks that are required. Globalization either continues or slows down, depending upon whether it is driven by apathy or exhaustion. On the social side, by definition, the possibility for a return to the past is high, since society is adverse to change to begin with and at the same time threatened (whether they understand it or not). This type of social back-pedaling could be disastrous in the human rights and economic equality arenas with little being done to deal with the underlying problems. Exhausted governments could well choose to initiate new constraints on civil liberties and forgo addressing equality issues with the fear of the big event being so prevalent in people’s minds. Similarly, some of the predetermined elements have the potential to intensify. The ill effects of overpopulation are the most prominent issues in terms of these elements. The have/have-not scenario, water scarcity, and hunger, will worsen if change is not instituted in this world. Environmental issues will also pose a large threat to society if technology and government cannot be directed towards solving the problem. And while technology is advancing and
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• Comfort foods • Activities to relieve stress • Counselling
Work Whether businesses realize it or not, they need someone to come in and get things moving. They need a catalyst to get them ready for the worst – maybe it’s just that they need tools to sharpen their understanding of the future. Businesses need all the help they can get in terms of communication and innovation. • Emergency consulting • Development of communication infrastructure • Opportunities for foreign investment
Home Home will truly be people’s refuge. If they cannot feel safe anywhere else, they need to feel safe in their home. • Security systems will spike • Continued push for low-density housing • Emergency plans and products
Play People relate to what they know best. National sports will be popular across the world. Entertainment, though, must to be close to people’s homes. • Cinema • Baseball in America, soccer everywhere else • Lull in the travel industry
Community Communities will focus on creating a self-contained, self-sufficient place for people to live. They will concentrate on preparing the community for disaster. Community activities will generally exist on a very local level. • Disaster relief programs • Rotary and country clubs will be popular • Events, activities, and programs to create a sense of security
HOW DOES THIS WORLD WORK?
SCENARIO 4: “BUSINESS AS USUAL”
This is a world without a focus on security. Since all clear threats have been extinguished and no immediate threats seem likely, people are carefree about their lives. Those living in a privileged world fear relatively minor issues such as crime or losing a job. The fears of the world are confined to the individual.
BUSINESS AS USUAL
DISPERSED THREAT
THREAT PERCEPTION SOCIAL ADAPTABILITY
FOCUSED THREAT
HIGHLY ADAPTABLE
CHANGE ADVERSE
There is little need for a tightly woven community because people feel safe and empowered on their own. As a result, the disparity between classes will only grow in this world. Governments and organizations are not actively trying to solve the problems of the world. Instead, there is a sweeping focus on domestic and individual life. Materialism and opulence are on one side of the social spectrum, with poverty on the other. Such imbalance and lack of attention to the big fundamentals reiterates the sense of security the world feels. Governments around the world are predominantly at peace with each other. They coexist with each other and only call on alliances when necessary. There are few international relationships that work towards equality and increasing the global standards of living.
DESIGN ELEMENTS Body People are going to do what feels best. People will want to live long, healthy lives because they believe that things are going to be okay. With the focus on the individual, there exists a wide range of products, diets, and activities for designers to sell. • Traditional exercise • Stress the basic food groups • Development of pharmaceuticals will address the individual’s concern for diseases
Work Businesses will need the foundation of a classic business model to be there. They want sound human capital, solid organizational structure, and connectivity. Improving what businesses already have will be more lucrative than trying to revolutionize the way they do business. • Get businesses connected • Controlling costs and pleasing shareholders will still be the driving forces of businesses • Free trade will continue to be a popular trend
Home
SOCIETY IS UNABLE TO ADAPT, THE CONTEXTUAL THREAT IS DISPERSED This world is not hard to imagine, as it looks predominantly like a future that is like the past (at least the world before 9/11). For people all over the world, life is Business As Usual, whether you are the “have” or the “have not”. With no clear threat to force change, there is no reason to expect that society is going to experience any sort of ideological shift or change in the status quo. Threats do exist in this world but none of them is urgent. People continue to monitor the problems of the world but do not take any pre-emptive action. Instead, Business As Usual is mostly about reaction. It is a future waiting for something to happen. If and when small threats do arise, this world is equipped to handle it with the technology it already possesses. People at least think mid-term in this world, and they enjoy a relatively slow-paced life that promises gradual growth. In reality, however, this world could face significant problems unless it starts to become more proactive.
HOW DID WE GET HERE? The path to this world is rather nondescript. Most of the critical uncertainties that face the world have
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evolved in the most positive way. The problems have been addressed with relative ease, and they pose no obvious possibilities of returning. The horizon is clear and has been clear for some time. As a result, it is actually a lack of change that has brought the world to this point:
Terrorism An international force eventually defeated the Al Qaeda network. Governments have secure borders and strong anti-terrorist alliances now prevent any large-scale threats from surfacing. The path to this point was one of cooperation that still exists now.
Rapid climate change Simply put, there was no rapid climate change. Scientists closely monitored the development of the ozone layer and the melting of the polar ice caps, but no signals indicate an accelerated pace towards a significant change in temperature. They will continue to track the progress of this trend, but do little to reverse it.
Dramatically advancing technology In this world, technology advanced, but not at an alarming, unmanageable rate. No substantial, life changing breakthroughs in biotechnology, nanotechnology, or quantum computing to create a driving change in the way society must operate. Communications technology is advanced, but it has done little to create a truly global community.
Businesses in this world continue on a rapid pace towards globalization and driving the shift towards a global economy. Companies use their advanced communications to explore new ideas and opportunities within their traditional comfort zones. Since businesses are at ease with the world, they may be inclined to take more risks, but they generally plan on doing business as usual. The predetermined elements of this world are not major concerns. Overpopulation, environmental concern and social stress brought on by age demographics are simply facts of life. Problem solving is directed towards them but not in any concerted effort. Instead, people in the developing world are mostly trying to move ahead in their lives. The only element that stands to have a sizable impact on the day-to-day life of the world is the emergence of China as an economic power. China will likely add a new dynamic to the global economy and political community, but it will not create such a disturbance that the world needs to adapt greatly to its presence.
Those who have money will spend it in their homes. People want to live the good life, and they will demonstrate it by buying big homes and fancy cars. Luxury designers stand to be extremely successful. Again, improving what already exists in homes is the key to design in this world. • Faster, more efficient appliances • Low-density housing developments • Connectivity
Play This will be the world of recreation. People feel so good about life that they want to make use of every possible moment. Anything and everything that provides entertainment has the chance of being popular. • Vacation Resorts • Sports Entertainment • High-tech recreation in the form of gaming
Community While this is a rather selfish world, it will not completely ignore the needs of the community. Traditional programs to eradicate slums, crime and other negative aspects of towns and cities will continue. People want to feel good, and that can often be accomplished through community service. • Programs that motivate citizens to give back to the community • Beautification programs • Smaller communities will need to be just as connected as cities
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THE INDEX:2005 SCENARIO UNIVERSE
NEVER AGAIN!
THREAT PERCEPTION
DEER IN HEADLIGHTS
BUSINESS AS USUAL
DISPERSED THREAT
SCOUT WORLD SOCIAL ADAPTABILITY
FOCUSED THREAT
HIGHLY ADAPTABLE
CHANGE ADVERSE
And so, we have four different worlds in our future universe, some with elements of other ones, others which are really quite different. Each has a different flavour – different places to live with different needs and outlooks. Which world do we want to happen? More appropriately, we should build a composite of elements of the different worlds and aim for that future. Alternatively, we can (and should) design away from the most negative and counterproductive scenarios.
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design to improve life