INFOCUS|INDIA-CHINA|FOREIGN POLICY
Managing the Geopolitical Implications of China’s
Economic Rise
Despite the economic content of the relationship, there is enough clarity that India, the US and most of the Southeast Asian countries do not want to see the rise of an aggressive China that could destabilise Asia
Dr. Monish Tourangbam
C
hina’s economic rise and its dividends across multiple dimensions including its military modernisation and continental as well as maritime approaches have spawned debates and deliberations regarding the nature of China’s rise. India has had a complicated relationship with China but it is a relationship that needs to be managed for the sake of regional stability. China’s economic rise and the complex interdependence
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that it has built with a host of countries including India necessitates a sober analysis of the changing geopolitics in Asia,which also involves extra-regional actors like the United States. Hence, it becomes imperative to not only assess the geopolitical implications of China’s economic rise but also to analyse how relations have been managed and how it can be better managed for not only regional but also global peace and stability. China’s economic boom has undoubtedly impacted debates and deliberations pertaining to the emerging
geopolitics of Asia with implications for the global order at large. With China adopting free market economy, various dividends have been seen in China, most particularly in the military sector. The military modernization of any aspiring power is guided by the economic rise of a country and when a country becomes a trading nation, a sustainable military might is seen as required to deter any potential disruption to the economic growth of the country. Simultaneous with the economic rise of China has been an effort by the Chinese government to project a ‘peaceful rise of China’ to the rest of the world. It has invested in diplomatic efforts to project its rise as being commensurate with the peace and stability of the international system. China wants to be seen as working towards the internal development of the country and its people with no negative repercussions for the region and beyond. However, the rise of China has affected its strategic behaviour in a way that has invariably increased the threat perception of its neighbours in East Asia, Southeast Asia and South Asia as well. China’s rising capabilities and its intentions to claim maritime boundaries in the South China Sea and the East China Sea have been seen as major signals of its aggressiveness in the region. Even as economic interdependence between China and other countries remain a major factor in their relations and is often seen as a deterrence against escalation of conflicts in the region, unresolved boundary dispute with India and incidents of border incursions by the Chinese have raised concerns in India and increased the level of threats perceived from a rising China. China’s Rise and Strategic Interpretations China’s unmistakable developments in major sectors of power indicators has led to increasing discussions around the world about China’s strategic intentions and its aspirations to become a global power. Emerging powers in Asia like India and extraregional powers like the United States
Though The naTure of China’s eConomiC invesTmenTs in souTh asian CounTries is largely CommerCial and Civilian in naTure aT presenT, They are seen as having poTenTial miliTary appliCaTions. There are inCreasing debaTes on wheTher China really sees india as a ThreaT of America are reflecting the repercussions of China’s rise in their strategic documents. Non-alignment 2.0 in India’s case has clearly discussed the complex relationship with a rising power like China in its vicinity. While both India and China cannot ignore each other in terms of economic opportunities to be gained from each other and hence the need for stability in the relationship, a history of mu-
tual suspicion and strategic uncertainty pervades the relationship. The military modernisation seen in both the countries reflect a recurring sense of threat perceived from each other, that builds into the security dilemma inherent in the relationship. China’s assistance to countries like Pakistan in its strategic sectors has not helped the trajectory of India-China relationship either. The extent of economic and strategic influence that China wields in the Asian landscape is significant, even impinging on India’s neighbourhood. Though the nature of China’s economic investments in South Asian countries is largely commercial and civilian in nature at present, they are seen as having potential military applications. The geopolitical as well as the geo-economic spaces of India and China crisscross each other, necessitating sober analyses from both sides regarding the feasibility of finding more convergences in the relationship. There are increasing debates on whether China really sees India as threat. However, there seems to be larger acknowledgement that India’s intentions to partner
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INFOCUS|INDIA-CHINA|FOREIGN POLICY
with other countries in the region and beyond to manage China’s rise are being watched keenly in Beijing. India’s rising strategic capabilities and aspirations make it a protagonist in the changing dynamics of global politics, and the centrality accorded to India’s role in US re-balancing strategy towards the Asia-Pacific testifies India’s significance and by corollary, the relevance of India-China relations. However, great power competitions and the various permutations and combinations inherent in them are anything but linear. Managing China’s Rise: Strategic Responses The strategic logic of increasing engagement between India and the United States is to be seen in the paramount importance given to the rationale for managing China’s rise. Such a strategic rationality is clearly seen in the convergence between India’s ‘Look East’ Policy (now elevated to ‘Act East’ Policy) and America’s re-balancing
strategy, both to a large extent dependent on the strings of partnerships built with Southeast Asian countries that are wary of China’s strategic rise. Both of these are broad-based policies that see each country’s national interests through a more stable and secure Asia with interdependent economies built on the principle of mutualism. But at the same time, both also aim at precluding the rise of an uncertain Asia with an aggressive power free to resort to unilateral moves in the region. The emerging geopolitics in Asia is rendered more complex by the increasing economic interdependence that exists between China and these countries, that has nevertheless failed to translate into greater strategic trust. Despite the economic content of the relationship, there is also enough clarity that India, the US and most of the Southeast Asian countries do not want to see the rise of an aggressive China that could de-stabilise Asia. Economies in this globalised era are both too intertwined and interdependent
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for politics of ‘curtains’ and ‘walls’ to be played à la the Cold War. Moreover, America’s complex tango with China leaves India nervous and concerned about the prospects of a power condominium between a power in relative decline and a power seeing an undoubted rise. India is wary that China’s relatively increasing power vis-àvis the US could lead to the US accommodating China to the detriment of India’s interests. Thus a more adept handling of relations is required where India’s strategic partnerships with regional and extra-regional countries are augmented to enable a more transparent and stable Asia to grow. However, such strategic signalling cannot come at the expense of relations like that of India-China that is consequential not only for the regional but global stability. Effective communication needs to be maintained between the two countries because military modernizations that are justified as defensive from one side might be seen as offensive on the other side. The increasing salience of
maritime trade corridors, the increasing activities of the Chinese Navy, the Indian Navy as well as the continued dominance of the US Navy, and the emergence of threats from non-state actors in the high seas all lend more credence to discussing the opportunities for cooperation and also the challenges of rising possibilities of maritime competition and clash. Economic Dynamism in Asia: Geopolitical Implications The internal dynamism in India and China and the need for resources for the continued domestic growth in both the countries automatically leads to increasing external ambitions that are redefining the debates over continental as well as maritime trade. The dynamism of Asian markets is leading to various multilateral and bilateral forums aimed towards economic structuring of the region. And, the unmistakable rise of China as an economic behemoth has been central to these webs of economic
linkages and interdependence developing in the region and beyond. Hence, as regional and extra-regional countries manoeuvre the complex geoeconomics, the invariable centrality of the China factor in forums including as well as excluding China will be paramount. In a globalised world determined by increasing levels of complex interdependence, coalitions and partnerships will be fluid rather than ones based on structured and cemented alliances. Therefore, even as India and its prospective partners in the region talk about shared strategic interest, countries’ strategic visions at the end are dictated by their own interests and striking unison among them is easier said than done. As debates and deliberations abound on the relative decline of the United States, neither the United States is declining so fast, nor is China rising so fast as to topple the supremacy of the United States. In this complex uncertainty prevailing in the global system, striking common grounds
and building habits of cooperation on setting rules of the road and adhering to them attain paramount importance. And, the management of China’s rise seems to be at the centre of both Asian regional and global geopolitics. However, even as every country gives primacy to the management of China’s rise, China is itself very much involved in managing its own rise in the international system. Hence, the globalised world demands a more shrewd game of manoeuvring amidst the minefields of emerging geopolitics and geoeconomics with opportunities of cooperation and challenges of potential conflict.
Dr. Monish Tourangbam is Assistant Professor at the Department of Geopolitics and International Relations, Manipal University, Karnataka
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