INFOCUS|INDIA-CHINA|FOREIGN POLICY
Managing the Geopolitical Implications of China’s
Economic Rise
Despite the economic content of the relationship, there is enough clarity that India, the US and most of the Southeast Asian countries do not want to see the rise of an aggressive China that could destabilise Asia
Dr. Monish Tourangbam
C
hina’s economic rise and its dividends across multiple dimensions including its military modernisation and continental as well as maritime approaches have spawned debates and deliberations regarding the nature of China’s rise. India has had a complicated relationship with China but it is a relationship that needs to be managed for the sake of regional stability. China’s economic rise and the complex interdependence
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that it has built with a host of countries including India necessitates a sober analysis of the changing geopolitics in Asia,which also involves extra-regional actors like the United States. Hence, it becomes imperative to not only assess the geopolitical implications of China’s economic rise but also to analyse how relations have been managed and how it can be better managed for not only regional but also global peace and stability. China’s economic boom has undoubtedly impacted debates and deliberations pertaining to the emerging
geopolitics of Asia with implications for the global order at large. With China adopting free market economy, various dividends have been seen in China, most particularly in the military sector. The military modernization of any aspiring power is guided by the economic rise of a country and when a country becomes a trading nation, a sustainable military might is seen as required to deter any potential disruption to the economic growth of the country. Simultaneous with the economic rise of China has been an effort by the Chinese government to project a ‘peaceful rise of China’ to the rest of the world. It has invested in diplomatic efforts to project its rise as being commensurate with the peace and stability of the international system. China wants to be seen as working towards the internal development of the country and its people with no negative repercussions for the region and beyond. However, the rise of China has affected its strategic behaviour in a way that has invariably increased the threat perception of its neighbours in East Asia, Southeast Asia and South Asia as well. China’s rising capabilities and its intentions to claim maritime boundaries in the South China Sea and the East China Sea have been seen as major signals of its aggressiveness in the region. Even as economic interdependence between China and other countries remain a major factor in their relations and is often seen as a deterrence against escalation of conflicts in the region, unresolved boundary dispute with India and incidents of border incursions by the Chinese have raised concerns in India and increased the level of threats perceived from a rising China. China’s Rise and Strategic Interpretations China’s unmistakable developments in major sectors of power indicators has led to increasing discussions around the world about China’s strategic intentions and its aspirations to become a global power. Emerging powers in Asia like India and extraregional powers like the United States
Though The naTure of China’s eConomiC invesTmenTs in souTh asian CounTries is largely CommerCial and Civilian in naTure aT presenT, They are seen as having poTenTial miliTary appliCaTions. There are inCreasing debaTes on wheTher China really sees india as a ThreaT of America are reflecting the repercussions of China’s rise in their strategic documents. Non-alignment 2.0 in India’s case has clearly discussed the complex relationship with a rising power like China in its vicinity. While both India and China cannot ignore each other in terms of economic opportunities to be gained from each other and hence the need for stability in the relationship, a history of mu-
tual suspicion and strategic uncertainty pervades the relationship. The military modernisation seen in both the countries reflect a recurring sense of threat perceived from each other, that builds into the security dilemma inherent in the relationship. China’s assistance to countries like Pakistan in its strategic sectors has not helped the trajectory of India-China relationship either. The extent of economic and strategic influence that China wields in the Asian landscape is significant, even impinging on India’s neighbourhood. Though the nature of China’s economic investments in South Asian countries is largely commercial and civilian in nature at present, they are seen as having potential military applications. The geopolitical as well as the geo-economic spaces of India and China crisscross each other, necessitating sober analyses from both sides regarding the feasibility of finding more convergences in the relationship. There are increasing debates on whether China really sees India as threat. However, there seems to be larger acknowledgement that India’s intentions to partner
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