Geopolitics

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INFOCUS|INDIA-CHINA|GEO-POLITICS

XUAR will also ignite the similar tinderboxes in other ethnic minority regions like Tibet, undermining the national unity and stability. New Silk Road, New Ambitions At the same time, from an economic perspective, China wants to narrow the developmental gap between its prosperous Eastern coastal provinces and its relatively deprived Western inland provinces. With respect to external trade, China wants to explore new markets as well as maintain and expand existing ones. China would like to move away from its trade dependency on the US, which is facing a relative decline in its economic fortunes. China also wants to diversify its trade connectivity from seaborne to inland routes. This attempt to diversify is in response to excessive dependence on the risky sea lanes for trade in commodity and energy, especially in context of the US’ thrust on the vital maritime Indo-Pacific region.

Revival of the Silk Road:

Implications for Eurasian Geopolitics An ambitious China is leaving no stone unturned for the development and sustainability of the ‘New Silk Road Economic Belt’ (NSREB) across continental Eurasia, even as the ‘three evils’–of international terrorism, religious extremism and ethnic separatism– threatens to turn the picture grim. The NSREB requires peace and stability in Eurasia for its smooth development and operation. |38| India-China Chronicle  January–February 2015

Anand V

T

he Silk Road helped in shaping the history of the Eastern and Western ends of the Eurasian landmass through centuries of interactions, and this in turn shaped the history of Central Asia itself. China had a dominant position in this politico-economic system, especially during the Tang dynasty, with the tribute system guaranteeing safety of the routes. However, this overland trading route became redundant after the discovery by the Europeans of new sea lanes of communication between Europe and Asia. This led to the colonization of Asia by the European powers and the eventual “Century of Humiliation” episode in China’s history, whereby its long held dominance came to an end by the 19th century. As a result, it can be seen that China’s overarching ambition with reviving the old Silk Road into the New Slik Road Economic Belt (NSREB) has deep, historical linkages, which are

nevertheless congruent with contemporary strategic considerations. China has strong domestic security and economic imperatives to breathe new life into the old Silk Road. Primarily, China wants to ensure national unity and stability in its Western territories. The Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR) of Western China has considerable volatility in its security setting. This is because segments of the native Uyghurs, an ethnically Turkic population, has increasingly been turning hostile to the growing presence and influence of Han Chinese in XUAR. This hostility has been manifested in terror attacks by Uyghur groups both against the Han settlers and their assets, as well as the government, which is perceived to be subjugating the Uyghur identity and repressing their Islamic faith. The vicious cycle of violence by Uyghur groups and the resulting crackdowns by the state have resulted in the growing precariousness of the security situation in XUAR. The Chinese government fears that any instability in

Central asian region is the hub of the eurasian geopolitiCal setting. by seCuritizing CommerCial routes, China plans to transform the regional seCurity as well as geopolitiCal destiny of adjoining Countries like india All these motivations also come under the larger ambit of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s vision of the “Chinese Dream”, which aims for the all-round rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. The Silk Road can therefore, act as a symbolic instrument and vehicle for China to implement and propagate its vision of a return to pre-eminence. The renewal of the old Silk Road was planned way back in the 1990s after the collapse of the Soviet Union. However, it became at least partly manifested only when the “Western Development Policy” was launched as a predecessor to the NSREB in 2000 to solve the uneven

East-West development in China. Because of its strategic significance, the NSREB has become an integral part of China’s diplomatic practice of late. The diplomatic visits by Xi and the Premier Li Keqiang and their engagement with Eurasian leaders over the past year have been well demonstrative of this trend. It was during Xi’s first visit to the Central Asian countries in September 2013 that he first espoused the concept of the NSREB in the international arena. During this visit, he presented a five-point proposal on the NSREB to these countries at the 13th annual Heads of States Summit of the Shanghai Co-operation Organization (SCO) in Bishkek, Kyrgystan. These included strengthening policy communication, road connections, trade facilitation, monetary co-operation, competitiveness and people-to-people relations. China has also extended its Silk Road diplomacy to countries in South Asia, West Asia and even Europe during the visits of Xi and Li to the countries in these regions over the past one year. The groundwork necessary for the establishment of the NSREB has started gaining momentum a year after Xi administration came up with the proposal. The NSREB’s main route starts from Xi’an, and passes through XUAR, Central Asia, West Asia, Eastern Europe and Central Europe to Venice. Therefore, China’s key work on NSREB abroad starts in Central Asia. Over the past couple of years, China has established strategic partnerships with all the five Central Asian states. New gas and oil agreements have been signed by China with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, respectively, and the China-Central Asia gas pipeline project has been further expanded. Apart from these, a China-Eurasia Economic Fund has been established and the SCO Agreement on Facilitation of International Road Transport was signed after ten-year-long negotiations. China has also signed an agreement with Serbia, Hungary and Macedonia for jointly building a landsea express passage linking China to Central and Eastern Europe.

January–February 2015  India-China Chronicle |39|


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