WORLD THIS WEEK

Contributed by the National Institute for Advanced Studies, BengaluruCompiled by Poornima B, Abigail Miriam Fernandez, Sukanya Bali, Avishka Ashok and Vinay Bhora

Iran: Return of the JCPOA talks

What happened?

On 9 April 2021, a Joint Commission meeting of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action ( JCPOA) members (excluding the United States) was held in Vienna. The meeting followed a virtual and in-person meeting held a few days earlier, resulting in two working groups. One group looks at the US sanctions imposed on Iran; the other will develop conditions that Iran has to comply with to execute the JCPOA. The US representatives stayed at a different hotel as the Iranian delegation refused to meet them directly. Messages about the negotiations were relayed to the US by the other signatories to the JCPOA- Russia, European Union, China.

As the talks' progress, the US and Iran will be involved in indirect talks from the coming week. Iran has expressed its willingness to negotiate provided the US also followed suit. The other parties expect that the negotiations will culminate with a credible outcome that outlines the measures needed to be taken by them to reignite the JCPOA.

What does it mean?

First, disagreement over what sanctions to remove could be a potential hurdle for the negotiations. While Iran demands all sanctions imposed after January 2016 be lifted, the US does not want to remove non-nuclear sanctions. Moreover, President Trump had smudged the difference between nuclear and non-nuclear related sanctions by placing some into terrorismrelated sanctions. A major challenge for the US delegation would be deciding whether to stick to these designations or look beyond them. The US will also have to convince its allies in the Middle East.

Second, the negotiations the negotiations have to fructify before the Iran presidential elections in June. If a hardliner replaces Rouhani (who is considered a moderate), Iran could revisit its negotiations. The deal must see the light for the moderates to retain their face amid widespread call for a hardliner Presidential candidate in Iran. Such political change could delay the talks' outcomes, as opposed to what the other parties aim to achieve.

Pakistan: A “new era” with Russia

What happened?

On 7 April, the Foreign Minister of Russia Sergey Lavrov arrived in Pakistan for a two-day visit, the first in nine years. On his arrival, he met with the Foreign Minister of Pakistan, who termed the meeting as the beginning of 'a new era' with Russia. The two held wide-ranging talks during which they reviewed their bilateral cooperation in energy, security, including counterterrorism and defence, besides having an in-depth discussion on the situation in Afghanistan. Lavrov said Russia was ready to build further counter-terrorism potential by providing military equipment to Pakistan. He said: "This is in the interest of all states of the region," adding that both sides also agreed on joint military exercises and drills.

FM Lavrov also met Imran Khan and General Bajwa. Khan reiterated the importance Pakistan attaches to Russia's relations as a key foreign policy priority and reaffirmed Pakistan's resolve to expeditiously conclude the requisite legal process for the "Pakistan Stream" (North- South) Gas Pipeline project and commence the work soon.

What does it mean?

First, a paradigm shift in Pak- Russia relations when compared to the 1980s. Although Pakistan and Russia have no history of a substantial relationship, their strategic realities have caused the current shift, which is a positive development for both Islamabad and Moscow.

Second, the Afghan factor is the start of something new. Their mutual interest in Afghanistan has brought the countries together. However, this factor can be seen as the start of bringing Russia and Pakistan towards further engagements.

Ukraine: Escalation of tensions with Russia

What happened?

Russian troops' buildup along the border that separates Ukraine and Russia in Donbas. The Kremlin rebuffed accusations of the troops being a threat.

On 9 April, Russia admonished that in the event of an attack on the Russian population in the Eastern part of the country, Moscow might intervene to protect and aid the Russian speaking residents. Ukraine argued that two of its soldiers were killed due to the shooting by the pro-Russian separatists. According to the open-source intelligence reports, the satellite images showcase an increased presence of tanks, artilleries and short-range ballistic missiles transported to just 150 miles from Ukraine. The Ukrainian President has implored NATO to set up a membership path for Ukraine to join the military alliance to stop the confrontations with Russia.

What does it mean?

The intervention is also meant to support the pro-Russian rebels in Eastern Ukraine. Putin has been backing the rebels to maintain a perpetual separatist crisis, maintain clout over the Ukrainian government, and encroach the region as he did in Crimea.

The recent developments do not clarify the Russian move; it could just be an intimidation tactic or a prelude to a major escalation. However, the massive troop movements and the antagonistic attitude have caused a ripple in Kyiv and the other Western capitals. The US and NATO will be obligated by Article 5 of the NATO treaty to retaliate. This could escalate into a war between Russia and the United States, and its NATO allies.

ALSO IN NEWS

Hong Kong: Jimmy Lai and two other pro-democracy leaders plead guilty

On 7 April, Jimmy Lai, a former Hong Kong media tycoon with two former lawmakers, Lee Cheuk-yan and Yeung Sum pleaded guilty, for taking part in an illegal anti-government protest organized on 31 August 2019. The charges carry five years of imprisonment. The ex-lawmakers admitted the same offence and said they did not regret their actions, which were a show of civil disobedience.

China: The Philippines continue allegations over the South China Sea

On 5 April, China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson said the Philippines should stop their allegation on the South China Sea. Earlier, on 4 April, Philippine Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana urged the Chinese vessels that are still around the Niu'e Reef to leave early, as per the South China Sea arbitration. He also denied that the Niu'e Reef and its adjacent waters as traditional fishing grounds for the Chinese fishermen.

Japan: Sanction extended on North Korea for two years

On 6 April, Japan renewed sanctions and a ban on all trade from North Korea for two years. The cabinet approved the extension. According to Kyodo News, the measure aims to pressure North Korea to "give up its nuclear and missile programs."

Myanmar: Both the public protests and the military crackdown continue

As of 11 April, more than 700 people are killed by the security forces. On 8 April, an explosion by Tatmadaw while retaliating against the ongoing clashes in the Sagaing province killed 11 and injuring 30. In the Shan province, the conflict between the two ethnic armed forces RCSS and TNLA has forced villagers to escape. This has added to numbers of exodus to the neighbouring countries. In Kachin State, the Tatmadaw raids in the churches have garnered anger among the locals. On 7 April, a series of attacks in Yangon targeted the military establishments.

Myanmar: Ambassador to the UK, locked out of the embassy

On 8 April, the Myanmar ambassador was locked out of the embassy. He described the incident as another "coup". He also said the staff was threatened with "severe punishment if they don't continue to work for the military general." According to Reuters, Chit Win, Deputy ambassador, has taken over as chargé d'affaires in London.

India: 11th round of Corps Commander talks held with China

On 9 April, India and China held their 11th rounds of talks at the Chushul border. Both have agreed to maintain stability on

the ground and to avoid new incidents in the eastern Ladakh region. The talk focused on disengagement from Patrolling Points (PP) at Gogra and Hot Springs. Ministry of Defence stated: "The two sides agreed that it was important to take guidance from the consensus of their leaders, continue their communication and dialogue and work towards a mutually acceptable resolution of the remaining issues at the earliest."

India: Russian Foreign Minister's visit

On 6 April, the Indian Foreign Minister and Russian Foreign Minister held talks in New Delhi. Both ministers agreed to enhance defense cooperation and explore the possibility of "additional" production of Russian equipment in India. The bilateral talks also addressed the regional issues, especially Afghanistan, and collaboration in the pharmaceutical sector.

India: US naval presence in India's EEZ opposed

On 9 April, India protested over the US patrolling in Indian Exclusive Economic Zone in the western Indian ocean. India's Ministry of External Affairs said: "the Government of India's stated position on the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) does not authorize other States to carry out in the EEZ and on the continental shelf, military exercises or manoeuvres, in particular, those involving the use of weapons or explosives, without the consent of the coastal state."

The US: President Biden pushes for gun control legislation

On 8 April, the US President revealed a series of actions to tackle increased gun violence in the country. While quoting the extremely large number of casualties due to gun-related violence, he said, "Gun violence in this country is an epidemic, and it is an international embarrassment." He urged the US lawmakers to support effective legislation that will help in amending laws, rectifying loopholes and protecting the rights of citizens. Even though the US House of Representatives passed a bill that pushes for background-checks in March, the bill will definitely face obstacles in the House of Senates. Biden's statements were directly aimed at "gun violence" instead of "gun control", which might show positive results in the country's fight against the irresponsible use of weapons.

About the authors

Poornima B is a PhD scholar from Manipal University, Abigail Miriam Fernandez and Sukanya Bali are project associates, Harini Madhusudan is a PhD scholar and Avishka Ashok is a research assistant in the School of Conflict and Security Studies at the National Institute of Advanced Studies. Chetna Vinay Bhora is a Research Scholar from the University of Madras.