India-Maldives relations need strategic rejuvenation

From the editor’s desk

By Rabindra Mukherjee

The recent call by Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu for the withdrawal of Indian military personnel by March 15 has injected a note of uncertainty into the historically strong ties between India and the Maldives. A diplomatic spat fuelled by derogatory comments from Maldivian ministers targeting Prime Minister Narendra Modi has strained the traditionally close relationship. Examining the historical foundations, economic engagements, and recent challenges provides insights into the complexities and opportunities inherent in the India-Maldives relationship.

Historical foundations

History has shown that India has had steadfast support for the Maldives, which forms the basis of the relationship. The 1988 coup attempt in the Maldives saw Operation Cactus, where Indian armed forces intervened, laying the foundation for a robust bilateral connection. This history of standing by each other in times of crisis has fostered trust between the two countries.

Underpinning this relationship is India's Neighbourhood First Policy, which places strategic importance on countries in close proximity, and the Maldives holds a pivotal role in this context. Proximity to India's west coast and its central location in vital commercial sea lanes make the Maldives a linchpin in India's strategic priorities.

The 'Net Security Provider' role that India plays in the Maldives signifies their defense cooperation. Joint exercises, including "Ekuverin," "Dosti," "Ekatha," and "Operation Shield," underscore the collaborative efforts in maintaining the safety and security of the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). This defense partnership contributes significantly to the Security And Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR) vision advocated by India.

Economic & trade engagements

The economic aspect of IndiaMaldives relations has flourished over the years. India's status as one of the largest sources of tourists for the Maldives fortifies the economic ties between the two nations. In 2023, India led the list of visitors to the Maldives, contributing substantially to the tourism sector, which is a lifeline for the Maldivian economy. Trade agreements and economic engagements have propelled bilateral trade, crossing USD 300 million in 2021. A bilateral USD currency swap agreement between the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and Maldives Monetary Authority further underscores the financial cooperation between the two countries.

Development and capacitybuilding initiatives represent another aspect of the economic collaboration. Infrastructure projects, healthcare assistance, educational programs, and cultural connectivity initiatives have strengthened the foundations of this relationship beyond the realms of security and economy.

Challenges for bilateral relations

Despite the historical and economic underpinnings, recent frictions have emerged, testing the resilience of India-Maldives relations. Derogatory comments by Maldivian ministers following Indian Prime Minister Modi's visit to Lakshadweep sparked tensions. India officially raised the issue, leading to the suspension of the ministers involved.

The subsequent 'India Out' campaign, coupled with President Muizzu's call for the withdrawal of Indian troops, intensifies the challenges. The 'India Out' initiative amplifies scepticism about India's investments, defense partnerships, and security provisions, reflecting a shift in the geopolitical landscape. The revocation of the hydrographic survey agreement adds another layer of complexity. Maldives' apprehensions about India's hydrographic activity being a form of intelligence collection underscore the delicate nature of maritime security collaboration.

The increasing influence of China in the Maldives adds a geopolitical dimension to the challenges. The Maldives' participation in China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and a Free-Trade Agreement (FTA) with China signify a pivot in the strategic considerations of the island nation.

The way forward

To go beyond the complexities and rejuvenate the India-Maldives relationship, a multifaceted approach is needed. The first could be to find out and develop tourism destinations in India for Indian and foreign travellers; therefore Lakshadweep is being developed to that end. This should not be viewed as a coercive Indian tactic, but an initiative to drive home the point that the Maldives needs India more than the latter needs the former. Another step is investing in basic infrastructure for undiscovered coastal areas can diversify tourism opportunities.

Regular diplomatic dialogues between leaders and officials of both the countries should be prioritized to address the contentious issues between the two nations.

Continued Indian support to the Maldives for its infrastructure development, healthcare, and education can enhance India's role as a reliable partner.

There is also a need to reiterate India's commitment to being a 'first responder' in times of crisis, which will give a boost to enhance trust between the two countries.

Then, an effort should also be made through diplomatic channels to send across a strong message to smaller nations like the Maldives to exercise prudence in dealing with neighbours like India, who have always stood by them and ensured stability in their regions. This can prevent unnecessary provocations.

Specifically, diplomatic solutions should be given priority over confrontations, by reminding each other of their shared history and cultural relations.

There is also a need for crafting a comprehensive Indian Ocean strategy. This calls for maximizing maritime security efforts, which can contribute to the safety and freedom of navigation in critical sea lanes.

There should also be active participation in humanitarian assistance and disaster relief operations, through various alliances. This will highlight India's commitment to regional security.

Then, media, especially social media’s role cannot be underestimated in establishing friendly relations between the two countries. Instead of acting irresponsibly, a responsible social media can lead to strong peopleto-people relations between the two countries. Also, promoting responsible behaviour on social media is vital for building a positive image.

This requires the acknowledging of the role of social media can play in promoting national interest, while, at the same time, discouraging actions that may be counterproductive.

Pondering over the IndiaMaldives relationship, one can discern that it stands at a crossroads, facing challenges that need a balanced but comprehensive response. While recent events have introduced strains, the historical, economic, and cultural ties between the two nations provide a foundation for overcoming these hurdles. A coordinated effort to address concerns, build trust, and strengthen regional cooperation will be essential for keeping intact India’s regional and geopolitical importance in the region, which is in the larger interest of the Maldives. It is in the interest of both the countries to engage in dialogue and diplomacy, and bring the relationship back to normalcy.