THE WORLD THIS WEEK

Pakistan: PDM sets off with first antigovernment rally

What happened?

On 16 October, the Opposition parties joined together to kick-start their first rally in Gujranwala under the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) banner, promising to turn the rally into a ‘big power show.’ The 11-party PDM in what was seen as an impressive show of strength promised to dislodge the “selected and incapable” Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government in weeks. Hundreds of supporters and workers had gathered at the Jinnah Stadium from different cities in the form of rallies while shouting ‘Go Imran Go’ as violations of safety protocols were observed.

While addressing the gathering via a video link, Nawaz Sharif accused the Establishment of being behind his ouster as Prime Minister and for “bringing Imran Khan into power”. Further, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Chief and the PDM President Maulana Fazlur Rehman said the Opposition was committed to restoring the sanctity of the people’s vote. Pakistani Muslim League (Nawaz) Vice-President Maryam Nawaz tweeted, “I embark on this mission as your foot soldier, Nawaz Sharif. I have dedicated myself to your struggle, your mission for Pakistan and its people.” Similarly, Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari invited every Pakistani to become part of the PDM and end the “joke” that is going on in Pakistan for the last 70 years.

What does it mean?

Former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif

The creation of the PDM reflects the Opposition’s success in coming together. This, in turn, has allowed them to have leverage given its composition of both mainstreams as well as smaller provincial and religious parties. Further, the other major difference between the PDM and any other alliance is the antiestablishment agenda which clearly reflects a marked shift in the Opposition’s stance, with the focus now on the Establishment, whom they see as the real power behind the PTI government.

However, the success of the PDM will depend on how it establishes itself as a movement moving from political sloganeering and rhetoric to implementing the objectives of the alliance. The PTI government has kept a brave face thus far; however, this is just the beginning. It is yet to be seen if the government’s confidence will decline as the rally closes in. On the other hand, what the payoff for the Pakistani people remains vague at this point.

Thailand: Emergency declared in Bangkok as protests intensify

Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha

What happened?

On 16 October, Thailand’s Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha chaired an urgently convened meeting of the cabinet and formally approved the state of emergency in Bangkok which was declared a day earlier. The emergency would be in place for a month and comes in the wake of intensifying pro-democracy street protests. The PM also rejected calls to step down and warned about imposing night curfews.

According to the emergency rules, any gathering of five or more people is prohibited; media organizations cannot publish anything that harms the public order and national security; and one could be detained up to 30 days without being charged.

Despite the imposition of emergency, protestors have come out in large numbers in the streets of Bangkok, defying the prohibitory orders. Even as many prominent leaders have been arrested, protestors have vowed to continue with their struggle for democracy.

What does this mean?

The protests are treading on a dangerous path. There have been instances of violence by the state and military in the past. So far, notwithstanding the arrests and detention of prominent protest leaders, the administration and the police have been accommodative and allowed an element of dissent. However, with the protests intensifying, the administration has calibrated its response by declaring a state of emergency.

If the protesters continue to defy prohibitory orders, or if the scale of protests assumes unmanageable proportions, the State might employ police or the military to disperse them, using violent means. It would change the nature of protests and also the State response.

Israel resumes new settlements in West Bank

What happened?

On 14 October, ending an eightmonth settlement expansion lull, the Israeli government approved 2,166 new settler homes across the occupied West Bank. The approvals come before the visit by a US delegation of top officials to Israel, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates in support of the recently concluded US-brokered normalization deals between the three countries – the Abraham Accords. The delegation aims “to support expanded economic cooperation” among the signatories.

Meanwhile, the global watchdog group Peace Now says that Israel has already approved over 12,000 illegal settlement houses in 2020.

What does it mean?

Before drawing inferences, two things must be considered:

First, in January 2020, a controversial plan unveiled by Netanyahu gave the US blessing to Israeli annexation of swathes of the West Bank, including the illegal settlements. Second, in August 2020, Trump’s adviser Jared Kushner said that the US would not approve Israeli annexation for “some time”. Thus, the US is on board with Israel’s resumption of West Bank annexation. While blunt reactions can be expected from the US, UAE and Bahrain, the Palestinian cause has lost its power over the Arab world. Furthermore, the politics of the Arab world is transforming from the strife for Palestinian statehood to the containment of Iran. Arab unity has crumbled.

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern

Also in the news

New Zealand: Jacinda Ardern wins second term

On 17 October, Jacinda Arden won the elections in New Zealand in what is seen as the biggest victory for the centre-left Labour Party in half a century by securing the highest votes in the general elections. The Labour party won 64 of the 120 seats with 49 per cent of the total votes. The opposition party secured 27 per cent votes. The mandate ensures that Arden can form a single-party government, a first in decades since New Zealand adopted a proportional voting system. The major attribute to her victory is the management of the Covid situation in New Zealand, and her swift action to ban guns after the shooting in 2019.

China: Trade relations with Australia decline further

On 12 October, the Chinese government indicated to its state-owned power stations, steel mills, and ports, to suspend the import of Australian coal, a move that could impact the Australian economy by $15 billion annually. On 16 October, China further announced a ban on cotton imports from Australia. The move has led Australia to call for immediate negotiations with China. Australia-China relations have steadily worsened over the past 18 months, with trade disputes impacting multiple industries, especially the barley, wine, wheat, and beef industries.

India and China: Seventh round of military talks

On 12 October, India and China held the seventh round of Corps Commander level meeting at Chushul on the Indian side of the LAC. Similar to the sixth round of the talks, representatives from the military and foreign ministry from both sides were present, yet failed to reach a disengagement agreement. The joint press statement did not clearly state a timeline for a possible disengagement.

China has once again blamed India for the standoff at the LAC. The infrastructural development along the LAC and the abrogation of Article 370, have been the major irritants in this regard. The Chinese Foreign Ministry announced that Beijing does not recognize the creation of Union Territory of Ladakh, as it includes Aksai Chin. India, on the other hand, has opposed China’s unilateral actions in changing the status quo in Eastern Ladakh.

The US - Saudi Arabia strategic dialogue

On 14 October, the US Secretary of State and the Foreign Minister of Saudi Arabia, participated in a “strategic dialogue,” with an aim to strengthen their ties. The meeting concluded with an understanding on the need to address “destabilizing behaviour” of Iran. Pompeo invited Saudi Arabia to join the “changing dynamic” in the region by recognising Israel; following the other Arab Gulf states and also observed that frequent attacks by the Houthis on Saudi territory was an indicator of Iran’s involvement. Prince Faisal raised concerns over the Safer oil tanker on the Red Sea, which the Houthis blocked partially.

Additionally, the United States has invested $1 billion on diplomatic construction in the kingdom, with its plans to build a new Embassy in Riyadh and the missions in Jeddah and Dhahran.

France: Killing of a school teacher in Paris

On 16 October, a teacher at a secondary school was murdered for showing the controversial cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad to his students. The attacker is said to have inflicted multiple wounds with a knife and then beheaded him, after which he posted photos of the victim to a Twitter account, along with insults to Mr Macron and French “infidels” and “dogs.” The attacker later fired at the police with an airgun before being shot dead. President Emmanuel Macron has stated that the attack bore all the hallmarks of an “Islamist terrorist attack” and the teacher had been murdered because he “taught freedom of expression”.

Europe: The Second-wave and a new lockdown

As winter approaches, there are heightened fears of the pandemic bringing another public health emergency closer to Europe. The UK, France, the Netherlands, Spain, Portugal and the Czech Republic have all unveiled new virus-related restrictions this week. In Germany, the Czech Republic and Poland, infections hit record daily highs on 15 October. France has imposed evening curfews in its biggest cities. Countries across Europe are seeing resurgence in COVID-19 cases after successfully slowing outbreaks early in the year and the vast majority of countries are declaring more cases each day now than they were during the first wave.

About the authors

Sukanya Bali, Lakshmi V Menon, and Abigail Miriam Fernandez are Research Associate, Research Consultant, and Research Assistant respectively, and Lokendra Sharma, Rashmi Ramesh, and Harini Madhusudan are PhD Scholars with the School of Conflict and Security Studies, at NIAS.

*The report has been modified by India News due to space considerations.