Studi kinerja industri batubara 2014 by IndoAnalisis

LAPORAN INDUSTRI

Studi Kinerja Industri Batubara

Terbit April

2014

Prospek Industri, Kinerja Industri, Pertumbuhan Pasar, dan Kinerja Perusahaan

DAFTAR ISI BAB I: PROSPEK INDUSTRI BATUBARA 1.1.

Potensi Industri Batubara 1.1.1. Potensi Pasar 1.1.2. Potensi Sumber Daya

1.2.

Tantangan Industri Batubara 1.2.3. Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Dunia 1.2.4. Regulasi Pemerintah

BAB II: STATISTIK KINERJA INDUSTRI BATUBARA 2.1.

2.2.

Pertumbuhan Industri Batubara Indonesia 2.1.1. Produksi 2.1.2. Ekspor 2.1.3. Penjualan Dalam Negeri 2.1.4. Impor 2.1.5. Supply & Demand 2.1.6. Harga 2.1.7. Sumber Daya dan Cadangan Pertumbuhan Industri Batubara Dunia 2.2.1. Produksi 2.2.2. Ekspor 2.2.3. Impor 2.2.4. Harga 2.2.5. Sumber Daya dan Cadangan

3.2.

Pasar Luar Negeri 3.2.1. Konsumsi 3.2.2. Pangsa Pasar 3.2.3. Pasar Cina 3.2.4. Pasar India 3.2.5. Pasar Amerika

BAB IV: PERUSAHAAN BATUBARA INDONESIA 4.1.

Posisi Perusahaan terbaik 4.1.1. Peringkat Produksi Terbaik 4.1.2. Peringkat Penjualan Terbaik

4.2.

Kinerja & Profil Bisnis Perusahaan Batubara 4.2.1. Adaro Energy 4.2.2. Bukit Asam 4.2.3. Indo TamabangRaya Megah 4.2.4. Bayan Resources 4.2.5. Bumi Resources 4.2.6. Berau Coal 4.2.7. Kideco Jaya Agung 4.2.8. Adimitra Baratama Nusantara 4.2.9. Asmin Koalindo Tuhup 4.2.10. Indomining 4.2.11. Kartika Selabumi Mining 4.2.12. Toba Bara Sejahtera 4.2.13. Mahakam Sumber Jaya

BAB III: PASAR INDUSTRI BATUBARA 3.1.

Pasar Dalam Negeri 3.1.1. Konsumsi 3.1.2. Pangsa Pasar 3.1.3. Industri Pembangkit Listrik 3.1.4. Industri Semen

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STUDI KINERJA INDUSTRI BATUBARA 2014

DAFTAR GAMBAR DAN TABEL I.

PROSPEK INDUSTRI BATUBARA ……….....…………………………………………….……….………………………………………. 1 1.1 Potensi Industri Batubara .................................................................................................................................................................................... 2 Gambar 1.1. Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia, 2009 – 2013 .............................................................................................................................................2 Gambar 1.2. Prediksi Kebutuhan Batubara untuk Pembangkit Listrik, 2014 - 2022........................................................................................................... 2 Gambar 1.3. Prediksi Konsumsi Batubara Dalam Negeri Berdasarkan Industri, 2014 ............................................................................................................ 3 Gambar 1.4. Prediksi Konsumsi Semen di Indonesia, 2014 - 2017........................................................................................................................................3 Gambar 1.5. Periode Keemasan Penjualan Luar Negeri Batubara Indonesia, 2009 - 2013...................................................................................................4 Gambar 1.6. Prediksi Konsumsi Batubara Cina, 2010 – 2040 ...............................................................................................................................................5 Gambar 1.7. Prediksi Konsumsi Batubara India, 2010 – 2040 ..............................................................................................................................................5 Gambar 1.8. Sumber Daya dan Cadangan Batubara Indonesia Berdasarkan Propinsi, 2012.................................................................................................6 1.2 Tantangan Industri Batubara …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………...7 Gambar 1.9. Perbandingan Harga Batubara Australia dengan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Cina, India, Indonesia, Amerika, dan Jepang, 2001 - 2019........... 7

II.

STATISTIK KINERJA INDUSTRI BATUBARA .…………………………………………….……….………………………………….…..12 2.1 Pertumbuhan Industri Batubara Indonesia ......................................................................................................................................................... 13 Gambar 2.1. Tren Pertumbuhan Volume Produksi Batubara Indonesia (Versi ESDM dan EIA), 2000 - 2014.......................................................................13 Gambar 2.2. Gambar 2.2. Tren Pertumbuhan Volume Ekspor Batubara Indonesia Versi BPS, BI, dan Kementerian ESDM, 2006 – 2013 .......................14 Gambar 2.3. Perbandingan Tren Volume dan Nilai Ekspor Batubara Indonesia, 2005 - 2013 .............................................................................................15 Gambar 2.4. Perbandingan Tren Volume dan Nilai Ekspor Batubara Indonesia Setiap Bulan, Januari 2009 – Desember 2013 ........................................16 Gambar 2.5. Tren Pertumbuhan Penjualan Batubara Dalam Negeri (Domestik), 2000 - 2014 ...........................................................................................17 Gambar 2.6. Tren Pertumbuhan Volume Impor Batubara Indonesia Versi ESDM, 2000 - 2011 ............................................................................................. 20 Gambar 2.7. Tren Pertumbuhan Volume Impor Batubara Indonesia Versi BI, 2007 – 2013 ................................................................................................. 20 Gambar 2.8. Tren Supply & Demand Batubara Indonesia, 2000 – 2014 .............................................................................................................................21 Gambar 2.9. Tren Pertumbuhan Harga Batubara Acuan (HBA) Setiap Bulan, Januari 2009 – Maret 2014..........................................................................22 Gambar 2.10. Perbandingan Harga Batubara Acuan dengan Volume Ekspor, Januari 2009 – Desember 2013 ..................................................................23 Gambar 2.11. Perbandingan Harga Batubara Acuan dengan Nilai Ekspor, Januari 2009 – Desember 2013.........................................................................23 Gambar 2.12. Tren Jumlah Sumber Daya dan Cadangan Batubara Indonesia 2004 – 2013 ................................................................................................24 Gambar 2.13. Komposisi Kualitas Sumber Daya dan Cadangan Batubara Indonesia Berdasarkan Jumlah Kalori, 2012 ....................................................25 Gambar 2.14. Jumlah Sumber Daya dan Cadangan Batubara Indonesia Berdasarkan Propinsi, 2012..................................................................................26 2.2 Pertumbuhan Industri Batubara Dunia ..................................................................................................................................................................27 Gambar 2.15. Tren Volume Produksi Batubara Enam Negara Produsen Terbesar Dunia, 1980 – 2012 ........................................................................... 27 Gambar 2.16. Posisi Enam Negara Produsen Batubara Terbesar Dunia, 2012 ................................................................................................................... 27

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DAFTAR GAMBAR DAN TABEL Gambar 2.17. Prediksi Tren Volume Produksi Batubara Empat Negara Besar dan Total Dunia, 2015 – 2040 ................................................................... 28 Gambar 2.18. Tren Volume Ekspor Batubara Lima Negara Eksportir Terbesar Dunia, 1980 – 2011 ................................................................................ 29 Gambar 2.19. Posisi Lima Negara Eksportir Batubara Terbesar Dunia, 2011 .......................................................................................................................29 Gambar 2.20. Tren Volume Impor Batubara Lima Negara Utama Dunia, 1980 – 2011 ..................................................................................................... 30 Gambar 2.21. Prediksi Pertumbuhan Volume Impor Batubara Empat Negara Utama Dunia, 2011 – 2040 ...................................................................... 30 Gambar 2.22. Perbandingan Tren Harga Batubara Acuan Indonesia, Australia, dan Columbia, Januari 2009 – Desember 2013 ..................................... 31 Gambar 2.23. Cadangan Batubara Dunia Berdasarkan Wilayah, 2010 ............................................................................................................................... 32 Gambar 2.24. Volume dan Persentase Cadangan Batubara Dunia Berdasarkan Negara, 2010 ......................................................................................... 32 33 Tabel 2.1. Cadangan Batubara di Berbagai Negara di Dunia, 2010 ..........................................................................................................................................

III.

PASAR INDUSTRI BATUBARA INDONESIA .…………………………………………….……….………………………………….…..34 3.1 Pasar Dalam Negeri ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 15 Gambar 3.1. Tren Pertumbuhan Konsumsi Batubara Dalam Negeri, 2000 – 2013 .............................................................................................................35 Gambar 3.2. Prediksi Konsumsi Batubara Dalam Negeri Berdasarkan Sektor Industri, 2014 ............................................................................................ 35 Gambar 3.3. Pangsa Pasar dan Volume Konsumsi Batubara Dalam Negeri Berdasarkan Sektor Industri Indonesia, 2000 – 2011 ....................................... 36 Gambar 3.4. Volume Konsumsi Batubara oleh Pembangkit Listrik, 2003 – 2013 .................................................................................................................37 Gambar 3.5. Prediksi Kompoisis Batubara untuk PLN, Anak Perusahaan PLN, dan Pembangkit Listrik Swasta, 2014 .........................................................38 Gambar 3.6. Prediksi Kebutuhan Batubara untuk Pembangkit Listrik, 2014 – 2022 .......................................................................................................... 38 Tabel 3.1. Prediksi Produksi Pembangkit Listrik dengan Bahan Bakar Batubara dan Bahan Bakar Lainnya, 2014 – 2022 ................................................. 38 Gambar 3.7. Gambar 3.7. Komposisi Batubara dalanm Bauran Energi yang Digunakan PT. PLN, 2008 – 2012 ..................................................................39 Gambar 3.8. Konsumsi Batubara oleh PT. PLN Berdasarkan Wilayah dan Anak Perusahaan, 2012 ................................................................................... 40 Gambar 3.9. Harga Batubara Rata-rata oleh PT. PLN, 2004 – 2013 .................................................................................................................................... 41 Gambar 3.10. Harga Batubara Berdasarkan Wilayah Kerja PLN dan Anak Perusahaan PLN, 2012 .....................................................................................41 Tabel 3.2. Daftar Pemasok/Suplier Batubara ke PT. PLN ......................................................................................................................................................42 Gambar 3.11. Pertumbuhan Konsumsi Semen Dalam Negeri, 2002 – 2013 .......................................................................................................................43 Gambar 3.12. Pertumbuhan Konsumsi Semen Dalam Negeri Berdasarkan Wilayah di Indonesia, 2012 – 2013 .................................................................44 Gambar 3.13. Prediksi Produksi, Konsumsi, dan Kapasitas Terpasang Semen di Indonesia, 2014 - 2017 ..........................................................................44 Gambar 3.14. Konsumsi Batubara PT. Semen Indonesia, 2011 – 2012 .............................................................................................................................. 45 Gambar 3.15. Konsumsi Batubara PT. Indocement Tunggal Perkasa, 2010 – 2012 ........................................................................................................... 45 3.2 Pasar Luar Negeri .................................................................................................................................................................................................46 Gambar 3.16. Volume Konsumsi Batubara Enam Negara Utama Dunia, 1980 – 2012 .........................................................................................................46 Gambar 3.17. Prediksi Volume Konsumsi Batubara Dunia, 1980 - 2040 ..............................................................................................................................46 Gambar 3.18. Prediksi Konsumsi Dunia terhadap Batubara Berdasarkan Sektor Industri, 2010 – 2040 ............................................................................47 Gambar 3.19. Pangsa Pasar dan Volume Penjualan Ekspor Batubara Indonesia Berdasarkan Negara, 2006 – 2012 ..........................................................48 Gambar 3.20. Komposisi Pasar Ekspor Batubara Indonesia di Pasar Luar Negeri, 2011 – 2012 ..........................................................................................49

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iii

DAFTAR GAMBAR DAN TABEL Gambar 3.21. Komposisi Pemasok Batubara ke Cina Berdasarkan Asal Negara, 2012 .......................................................................................................50 Gambar 3.22. Konsumsi Batubara Cina, 2000 – 2012 ..........................................................................................................................................................50 Gambar 3.23. Prediksi Total Konsumsi Cina, 2010 – 2040 ..................................................................................................................................................51 Gambar 3.24. Prediksi Total Konsumsi Cina terhadap Batubara Berdasarkan Sektor Industri, 2010 – 2040 .....................................................................51 Gambar 3.25. Volume Impor Batubara India, 2009 – 2013 .................................................................................................................................................52 Gambar 3.26. Prediksi Volume Konsumsi Batubara India, 2010 – 2040 ...............................................................................................................................52 Gambar 3.27. Volume Konsumsi Batubara Amerika, 2007 – 2013 .......................................................................................................................................53 Gambar 3.28. Prediksi Volume Konsumsi Batubara Amerika, 2009 – 2040 ........................................................................................................................53

IV.

PERUSAHAAN BATUBARA INDONESIA .…....………………………………………….……….………………………………….…..54 4.1. Posisi Perusahaan Terbaik ....................................................................................................................................................................................55 Gambar 4.1. Peringkat Produksi Perusahaan Batubara Utama Indonesia, 2009 – 2013 .................................................................................................... 55 Gambar 4.2. Peringkat Penjualan Batubara Perusahaan Batubara Utama Indonesia, 2010 – 2013 ................................................................................. 56 4.2. Kinerja & Profil Bisnis Perusahaan Batubara ........................................................................................................................................................... 57 Gambar 4.3. Skema Bisnis Adaro Energy dan Anak Perusahaannya ....................................................................................................................................57 Gambar 4.4. Tren Volume Produksi Batubara Adaro Energy. 1992 – 2013 .........................................................................................................................58 Gambar 4.5. Tren Volume Penjualan Batubara Adaro Energy. 1992 – 2013 ........................................................................................................................ 59 Gambar 4.6. Komposisi Volume Penjualan Batubara Dalam Negeri Vs Ekspor dari Adaro Energy. 2005 – 2013 .............................................................. 60 Gambar 4.7. Pangsa Pasar Penjualan Batubara Adaro Energy. 2013 ................................................................................................................................. 61 Gambar 4.8. Pangsa Pasar Penjualan Batubara Adaro Energy Berdasarkan Negara. 2012 – 2013 ....................................................................................... 62 Gambar 4.9. Pangsa Pasar Penjualan Batubara Adaro Energy Berdasarkan Industri. 2012 – 2013 ....................................................................................62 Tabel 4.1. Sumber Daya dan Cadangan Batubara Adaro Energy. 2013 .............................................................................................................................. 63 Gambar 4.10. Lokasi Operasional Pertambangan Batubara Adaro Energy dan Anak Perusahaannya .................................................................................64 Gambar 4.11. Kinerja Keuangan Adaro Energy. 2008 – 2013 ..............................................................................................................................................65 Tabel 4.2. Kinerja Keuangan Perusahaan Adaro Energy. 2008 – 2013 ............................................................................................................................... 65 Gambar 4.12. Skema Bisnis PT Bukit Asam dan Anak Perusahaannya ................................................................................................................................... 66 Gambar 4.13. Tren Volume Produksi Batubara PT Bukit Asam. 2002 – 2013 .................................................................................................................... 67 Gambar 4.14. Tren Volume Penjualan dan Prediksi Penjualan Batubara PT Bukit Asam. 2002 – 2017 ............................................................................. 68 Gambar 4.15. Pangsa Pasar Penjualan Batubara PT Bukit Asam. 2012 – 2013 ....................................................................................................................69 Gambar 4.16. Tren Harga Batubara PT Bukit Asam untuk Pasar Domestik dan Pasar Ekspor. 2008 – 2013 ........................................................................69 Gambar 4.17. Total Sumber Daya dan Cadangan Batubara PT Bukit Asam. 2013 .................................................................................................................70 Gambar 4.18. Lokasi Operasional PT Bukit Asam dan Anak Perusahaannya. 2013 .............................................................................................................71 Gambar 4.19. Kinerja Keuangan PT Bukit Asam. 2009 – 2013 ............................................................................................................................................... 72 Tabel 4.3. Kinerja Keuangan Perusahaan PT Bukit Asam. 2009 – 2013 .............................................................................................................................. 72 Gambar 4.20. Skema Bisnis Indo Tambangraya Megah dan Anak Perusahaannya .............................................................................................................73 Gambar 4.21. Skema Bisnis Indo Tambangraya Megah dan Anak Perusahaannya .............................................................................................................74

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DAFTAR GAMBAR DAN TABEL 75 Gambar 4.22. Tren Volume Produksi Batubara Indo Tambangraya Megah. 2009 – 2013 ...................................................................................................... Gambar 4.23. Tren Volume Penjualan Batubara Indo Tambangraya Megah Berdasarkan Anak Perusahaan. 2010 – 2013 ..............................................76 Gambar 4.24. Tren Volume Penjualan Batubara Indo Tambangraya Megah Berdasarkan Negara. 2009 – 2013 ..............................................................77 78 Gambar 4.25. Tren Harga Batubara Indo Tambangraya Megah. 2010 – 2013 ...................................................................................................................... Gambar 4.26. Pangsa Pasar Penjualan Batubara Indo Tambangraya Megah Berdasarkan Negara. 2011 – 2013 ..............................................................78 Gambar 4.27. Sumber Daya dan Cadangan Batubara Indo Tambangraya Megah. 2011 – 2013 ........................................................................................79 79 Tabel 4.4. Sumber Daya dan Cadangan Batubara Indo Tambangraya Megah dan Anak Perusahaannya. 2011 – 2013 ........................................................ Gambar 4.28. Lokasi Operasional Indo Tambangraya Megah dan Anak Perusahaannya. 2013 ..........................................................................................80 Gambar 4.29. Kinerja Keuangan Indo Tambangraya Megah. 2009 – 2013 ...........................................................................................................................81 Tabel 4.5. Kinerja Keuangan Indo Tambangraya Megah. 2009 – 2013 ............................................................................................................................... 81 Gambar 4.30. Tren Volume Produksi Batubara Bayan Resources, 2008 – 2013 ................................................................................................................ 83 Gambar 4.31. Tren Volume Penjualan Batubara Bayan Resources, 2009 – 2013 .............................................................................................................. 84 Gambar 4.32. Pangsa Pasar Batubara Bayan Resources, 2013 ............................................................................................................................................85 85 Gambar 4.33. Tren Nilai Penjualan Batubara Bayan Resources Berdasarkan Segmen Pasar, 2011 – 2013 .......................................................................... 86 Tabel 4.6. Sumber Daya dan Cadangan Batubara Bayan Resources, 2013 ............................................................................................................................. Gambar 4.34. Kinerja Keuangan Bayan Resources, 2009 – 2013 .........................................................................................................................................88 88 Tabel 4.7. Kinerja Keuangan Bayan Resources, 2010 – 2013 ................................................................................................................................................. 90 Gambar 4.35. Biaya Produksi Batubara BUMI, KPC, dan Arutmin, 2010 – 2012 ...................................................................................................................... Gambar 4.36. Volume Pertambangan Batubara KPC & Arutmin, 2011 – 2013 ....................................................................................................................90 90 Gambar 4.37. Volume Produksi Batubara KPC & Arutmin, 2011 – 2013 ............................................................................................................................... Gambar 4.38. Volume Produksi Batubara Arutmin Berdasarkan Wilayah Kerja, 2011 – 2012 ...........................................................................................91 Gambar 4.39. Volume Pertambangan Batubara Arutmin Berdasarkan Wilayah Kerja, 2011 – 2012 ...................................................................................91 Gambar 4.40. Volume Produksi Batubara KPC Berdasarkan Wilayah Kerja, 2011 – 2012 ...................................................................................................92 Gambar 4.41. Volume Pertambangan Batubara KPC Berdasarkan Wilayah Kerja, 2011 – 2012 ..........................................................................................92 93 Gambar 4. 42. Volume Penjualan Batubara KPC & Arutmin, 2011 – 2013 ........................................................................................................................... Gambar 4.43. Volume Penjualan Batubara Arutmin Berdasarkan Wilayah Kerja, 2011 – 2012 ...........................................................................................93 Gambar 4.44. Pangsa Pasar Batubara Bumi Resources Berdasarkan Negara, 2012 ............................................................................................................94 94 Tabel 4.8. Volume Penjualan Batubara BUMI Resources Berdasarkan Negara, 2012 ........................................................................................................... 95 Tabel 4.9. Sumber Daya dan Cadangan Batubara KPC, 2011 – 2012 ....................................................................................................................................... Tabel 4.10. Sumber Daya dan Cadangan Batubara Arutmin, 2011 – 2012 ...........................................................................................................................95 Gambar 4.45. Lokasi Opersional Kaltim Prima Coal (KPC), 2013 ......................................................................................................................................... 96 Gambar 4.46. Lokasi Operasional Arutmin, 2013 .................................................................................................................................................................97 Gambar 4.47. Kinerja Keuangan BUMI Resources, 2009 – 2013 .........................................................................................................................................98 Tabel 4.11. Kinerja Keuangan BUMI Resources, 2009 – 2013 ...............................................................................................................................................98 99 Gambar 4.48. Volume Produksi Batubara Berau Coal, 2009 – 2013 ...................................................................................................................................... 100 Gambar 4.49. Volume Produksi Batubara Berau Coal, 2009 – 2013 ...................................................................................................................................... 101 Gambar 4.50. Pangsa Pasar Batubara Berau Coal, 2011 – 202 .............................................................................................................................................. Gambar 4.51. Jumlah Sumber Daya dan Cadangan Batubara Berau Coal, 2012 ............................................................................................................... 102

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DAFTAR GAMBAR DAN TABEL Tabel 4.12. Sumber Daya Batubara Berau Coal, 2012 .........................................................................................................................................................102 Gambar 4.52. Lokasi Operasional Berau Coal, 2012 ............................................................................................................................................................103 Gambar 4.53. Pendapatan Berau Coal Berdasarkan Perusahaan Pembeli, 2011 - 2013 .....................................................................................................104 Gambar 4.54. Pendapatan Berau Coal Berdasarkan Negara Target Penjualan, 2011 – 2013 .............................................................................................104 Gambar 4.55. Kinerja Penjualan dan Laba Bersih Berau Coal, 2010 – 2013 ........................................................................................................................105 Tabel 4.13. Kinerja Keuangan Berau Coal, 2008 – 2013 ......................................................................................................................................................105 Gambar 4.56. Volume Produksi Batubara Kideco Jaya Agung, 1998 – 2013 ........................................................................................................................106 Gambar 4.57. Volume Penjualan Batubara Kideco Jaya Agung, 2000 – 2013 ................................................................................................................... 107 Gambar 4.58. Pangsa Pasar Penjualan Batubara Kideco Jaya Agung, 2012 ....................................................................................................................... 108 Gambar 4.59. Sumber Daya dan Cadangan Batubara Kideco Jaya Agung, 2012 ..................................................................................................................109 Gambar 4.60. Lokasi Operasional Kideco Jaya Agung ...........................................................................................................................................................110 Gambar 4.61. Kinerja Keuangan Kideco Jaya Agung, 2008 – 2013 ..................................................................................................................................... 111 Tabel 4.14. Kinerja Keuangan Kideco Jaya Agung, 2008 – 2013 ...........................................................................................................................................111 Gambar 4.62. Kinerja Operasional PT. Adimitra Baratama Nusantara .................................................................................................................................112 Gambar 4.63. Pangsa Pasar PT. Adimitra Baratama Nusantara .......................................................................................................................................... 112 Gambar 4.64. Lokasi Operasional PT. Adimitra Baratama Nusantara ..................................................................................................................................112 Gambar 4.65. Kinerja Operasional PT. Asmin Koalindo Tuhup, 2009 -2011 ........................................................................................................................113 Gambar 4.66. Pangsa Pasar PT. Asmin Koalindo Tuhup, 2011 .............................................................................................................................................113 Gambar 4.67. Lokasi Operasional PT. Asmin Koalindo Tuhup ............................................................................................................................................. 113 Gambar 4.68. Kinerja Operasional PT. Indomining, 2007 – 2012 ........................................................................................................................................114 Gambar 4.69. Pangsa Pasar dan Penjualan PT. Indomining, 2009 – 2011 .......................................................................................................................... 114 Gambar 4.70. Lokasi Operasional PT. Indomining .................................................................................................................................................................114 Gambar 4.71. Kinerja Operasional PT. Kartika Selabumi Mining 2007 – 2011 .....................................................................................................................115 Gambar 4.72. Pangsa Pasar PT. Kartika Selabumi Mining ................................................................................................................................................... 115 Gambar 4.73. Lokasi Operasional PT. Kartika Selabumi Mining .........................................................................................................................................115 Gambar 4.74. Kinerja Opeasional PT. Toba Bara Sejahtera, 2008 – 2013 ............................................................................................................................116 Gambar 4.75. Pangsa Pasar PT. Toba Bara Sejahtera .......................................................................................................................................................... 116 Gambar 4.76. Lokasi Operasional PT. Toba Bara Sejahtera ...................................................................................................................................................116 Gambar 4.77. Kinerja Operasional PT. Mahakam Sumber Jaya, 2011 – 2013 .....................................................................................................................117 Gambar 4.78. Pangsa Pasar PT. Mahakam Sumber Jaya ..................................................................................................................................................... 117 Gambar 4.79. Lokasi Operasional PT. Mahakam Sumber Jaya ........................................................................................................................................... 117

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2.1. PERTUMBUHAN INDUSTRI BATUBARA INDONESIA

2.1.6. HARGA 140

140

3.000.000

120

2.500.000

100

Volume Eskpor (Ribu Ton)

Harga Batubara Acuan (USD/Ton)

2.000.000 1.500.000 1.000.000 500.000 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Okt-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Okt-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Okt-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Okt-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Okt-13

Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Okt-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Okt-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Okt-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Okt-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Okt-13

45.000 40.000 35.000 30.000 25.000 20.000 15.000 10.000 5.000 -

Nilai Ekspor (Ribu USD)

Harga Batubara Acuan (USD/Ton)

Gambar 2.10. Perbandingan Harga Batubara Acuan dengan Volume Ekspor, Januari 2009 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Desember 2013

Gambar 2.11. Perbandingan Harga Batubara Acuan dengan Nilai Ekspor, Januari 2009 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Desember 2013

Sumber: Diolah dari Bank Indonesia dan Kementerian ESDM

Harga Batubara Turun, Volume Ekspor Terus Tumbuh

Harga Batubara Turun, Nilai Ekspor Ikut Turun

Turunnya harga batubara dunia dan harga batubara acuan Indonesia ternyata tidak membuat volume ekspor ikut turun.

Sebuah ironi, ketika harga batubara turun dan volume ekspor tetap naik, tetapi nilai ekspor tidak stabil, malah semakin turun.

Ini menunjukan bahwa pasar tetap membutuhkan batubara Indonesia, namun karena terjadi kelebihan suplai batubara di pasar dunia, maka harga batubara menjadi turun.

Ini menunjukan bahwa harga batubara semakin lemah bila ekspor terus naik dan fenomena kelebihan suplai tetap terjadi.

Untuk itu, agar harga kembali naik dan seperti di awal 2011, maka perlu adanya pembatasan ekspor atau mulai fokus pada pasar dalam negeri.

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Karena itu, pemerintah ikut turun tangan agar para pelaku bisnis batubara dalam negeri mengarahkan penjualannya pada pasar dalam negeri. Dengan begitu, maka volume ekspor menjadi turun dan fenomena kelebihan suplai batubara dapat terselesaikan.

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2.2. PERTUMBUHAN INDUSTRI BATUBARA DUNIA

2.2.1. PRODUKSI 8,7

9,5

10,9

10,3

0,6

0,5 0,6

0,5 0,7

0,6 0,8

0,8 1,2

1,1

11,4

11,5

0,6

0,7

0,9

1,0

1,2

1,1

2015

Australia India

1,0

4,1

Total Dunia

United States

4,7

2020

China

5,3

5,6

5,8

5,7

2025

2030

2035

2040

(Miliar Ton) Gambar 2.17. Prediksi Tren Volume Produksi Batubara Empat Negara Besar dan Total Dunia, 2015 - 2040 Sumber: Diolah dari EIA

Prediksi Produksi Batubara Dunia EIA, lembaga informasi energi Amerika menyampaikan prediksi bahwa Cina akan tetap menjadi negara terbesar dalam produksi batubara.

Selain Cina, berdasarkan prediksi EIA, 4 besar negara yang produksi batubaranya terus meningkat adalah Amerika, India, dan Australia.

Jika sepanjang tahun 2012 produksi batubara Cina mencapai 3,9 miliar ton, maka EIA memprediksi bahwa pada tahun 2015 akan mencapai 4,1 miliar ton dan pada tahun 2040 akan mencapai 5,7 miliar ton. Sebuah angka yang luar biasa besar.

Sayangnya, EIA tidak memasukan Indonesia dalam prediksi. Apakah karena tidak begitu besarnya sumber daya dan cadangan batubara Indonesia. Ataukah karena jumlah batubara Indonesia sudah terlalu banyak diekspor sehingga membuat EIA belum dapat memprediksi kemampuan produksi batubara Indonesia di masa depan.

Hal ini wajar, mengingat kebutuhan batubara untuk menunjang operasional industrinya juga sangat besar.

Namun yang pasti, saat ini Indonesia memang telah menjadi negara pengekspor batubara nomor satu di dunia.

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