InFINeeti | New Year Edition
January 2016
FROM THE EDITOR’S DESK
Photo Caption
Dear Readers, Greetings from InFINeeti! The only thing that is constant is change. But are we adapting to this change? The world around us is reshaping itself in every aspect and we can not simply watch and wait for the daily newspaper. We at InFINeeti, bring you the deep insights of the changes, the world is witnessing in the field of business and finance. From plummeting oil prices to the ill health of Indian Banking sector, we have focused the contents of this issue on topics both international and domestic. With analysts predicting another economic apocalypse, we get to the core of the problem and dedicate the theme of this issue to “Finances of Terrorism”, something we only hear about in movies and conspiracy theories. On the business side, India and Japan strengthen their relations in order to form ever-stronger economic, military and strategic ties. We have provided special focus to past, present and future of Indo-Japan Relations. Seeing only one side of the coin is dangerous. We present you the thorough analysis of this relationship. Along with the analysis of current events, we have brought in some additional insight into some facts and figures which will keep you entertained which going through the magazine. Equity research, Fin-cross and News Chronicle have always kept the magazine alive, we also tried bring you a new section for people looking for investing– Invest Insight. Happy Reading!
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CONTENTS
Fin Cross
BLED RED
Is Japan our
CROSSWORD
Understanding the Finances of Terrorism Page 4
True Friend
Page 41 & 57
Know everything about our friendship Page 12
The Dirt
Dragon Enters the
Corporate Finance
SDR Basket
Off the Books
Know the impact China can make Page 20
Page 50
TATA Motors
Are NPAs a warning for Indian Banking?
Oil Will oil prices continue falling? Page 42
Effect on Emerging Economies Page 26
Equity Research
Deconstructing Indian Banking’s Achilles Heel Page 30
Fed Rate Hike
Page 60
Commodity Crisis How commodities are shrinking the World Economies Page 36
Invest Insight
Financial Focus
Investor or Trader
Page 58
Page 52
How to Invest?
FIN TREND
Is 2016 the year of Economic Apocalypse? Know the World Around You Page 66
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THE DIRT
BLED RED By Aayush Singh Sengar & Priyanka Bagree IIM Raipur
Everybody's worried about stopping terrorism. Well, there's a really easy way: stop participating in it. Noam Chomsky ALL HANDS FOR IVORY
Well what he wanted to say was there are a thousand reasons to fight terrorism but none to support it. Knowingly or unknowingly we have been breading these leeches throughout. As soldiers can’t on fight empty stomachs neither can the terrorists. What fuels them, runs them and conquers them is money. East Africa now constitutes ground zero for poaching of elephants for their ivory. Around 30,000 African elephants are killed every year, and the pace is not slowing. Most of the illegal ivory goes to China, where a pair of ivory chopsticks can fetch you more than a thousand dollars and carved tusks sell for more than hundreds of thousands of dollars. Tanzania has lost almost 60% of its elephant cover in the last 5 years with numbers down to 44,000 from an original 110,000. Mozambique, on the other hand reports a loss of around 48%. But down and dirty in the Central Africa you have terrorists funding their activities by illegal poaching of this world treasure adopting measures like jumping boundaries and consistently carrying out activities in the neighboring countries. Sudan, Chad, Congo and SAR due to their deterring economy acts as an opportune ground for such organizations, who sometimes even outsource the job and buy these tusks from the villagers. Which then as stated above are transferred to China and allied economic countries for commercial valuation.
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Facts: More than 35,000 elephants are poached every year. About 30% of the Asian Elephant population is in captivity. More than one million Pangolins have been traded in the past 10 years.
There are more Tigers in American Backyards than in the Wild. The WWF estimates there are 5,000 tigers being kept in U.S. backyards and only around 3,000 in the wild.
Oil and Petroleum
Elephant population in Western Africa, representing about 2% of the species, were excluded from the study. Regional estimates differ from continental totals because statistical models generated regional and continental separately.
"It's so important for Americans to know that the traffic in their neighborhoods finances the work of terror, sustaining terrorists, that terrorists use oil profits to fund their cells to commit acts of murder. If you quit driving, you join the fight against terror in America." This quote by President George W. Bush clearly epitomizes how big a stake oil and petroleum have in the financing of terror activities across the globe. From the Middle East where super-abundant oil money is financing al-Qaeda, ISIS and other terrorist organizations; to Central America, where Colombian paramilitary groups with ties to oil companies have murdered civilians critical of the oil companies; to Africa, Southeast Asia, and indeed anywhere in the world where oil reserves are found, criminality, injustice
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Facts: The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) used to have a different name: Al Qaeda in Iraq. After 2010 the group rebranded and refocused its efforts on Syria. The last time Iran invaded another nation was in 1738. Since independence
and environmental devastation have followed. It is often said that Petro-capitalists and terrorists share the same disregard for human life in its means to achieve its goal of greed or superiority. In the current scenario, ISIS is deemed to be one of the wealthiest terror groups in history, mainly due to its massive oil revenues. Recent estimates show they are making around 3 million dollars a day, through illegal oil trade. After capturing oil fields, these militants depend on the cooperation of locals to run these operations. Demand is at an all time high, with around 8 million people living in ISIS controlled territory in need of fuel for basic living. This significant rise in oil revenues has also led to higher recruitment from within the controlled areas as well as western countries causing growing alarm of governments under threat of sleeper cells and more frequent attacks. ISIS Control over Syrian Oil fields
in 1776, the U.S. has been engaged in over 53 military invasions and expeditions.
Illegal drugs and Terrorism
Coca and poppy, these two plants have been valued in the international terrorism market for more than diamonds or gold or any of them combined. The illegal drug business works across the globe with consistent demand and cheap manufacturing cost. The production of 1kg of cocaine costs around $3000 while sells for above $20,000. In the tropical countries especially Columbia, Peru and Bolivia the production is fast and in some Asian countries you can have the production cycle twice annually, doubling
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Facts: Over 32% of all inmates in state prisons in the United States were either under the influence of drugs or in possession of drugs when arrested. Drug trafficking in Mexico is a business worth over
the revenues. The second major drug, heroin, is a bit costlier in the range of $4000 but the mark up price goes up to around $300,000. The most important part is that these dealers never accept an order unless paid in full. In 1999 alone, the world production of heroin was estimated at 500 metric tons with 400 of those produced by the Taliban. In the year 2001, the drugs totaled sales of 80 billion dollars in the US alone. Through reliable sources in 1998 it was reported that Al Qaeda got hold of 4 nuclear suitcases from Chechens for half a billion dollars worth of heroine. This shows the demand and the extent of the illegal drugs market across the globe. Find below the numbers about average American spending on drugs according to ncjrs.gov.
$50 billion per year. It is believed that the loss of the drug trafficking industry in Mexico would cause that country’s economy to shrink by over 63%.
Blood Diamonds
Sierra Leone, Congo, Liberia and Angola except from being in Africa do share the stage in the highest number of illegal diamond mining across the globe. As suggested by John Pickrell, the Angolan Rebel Army UNITAS generated around $3.7 billion from conflict diamonds in the year 1990. According to the estimates, UNITAS controls around 10% of world diamond trade, which is quite extraordinary. The reason is that diamonds are easy to conceal and get high prices all across the globe. They are highly liquid and can be easily transported anywhere. More importantly according to Guardian dated Sunday the 20th October,
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Facts: The continent of Africa has the largest reserves of precious metals with over 40% of the gold reserves, over 60% of the cobalt, and 90% of the platinum reserves.
Cash Countries
2002, Osama Bin Laden and the Al Qaeda were able to monetize around $20 million from African Blood diamonds just months prior to 09/11 for orchestrating the biggest terrorist attack of the century. The following chart highlights the cycle of illegal trade of diamonds according to sjcite.info
It is the most basic way of moving cash across borders i.e. in the form of physical cash. It mostly takes place where the international borders are uncontrolled or there is a high strain on the resources of the government. To give an overview of how this works look at the following chart explaining cash transfers before 9/11 according to Michael Freeman and Moyara Ruehsen. The cash transfers make up for 70% of Al Quaeda’s budget, signifying the importance of this mechanism for the purpose of both raising and moving money.
Informal Transfer Systems
Hawala/Hundi in South Asia, Fei ch’ien in China, Phoe Khan in Thailand, and Door-to-Door in the Philippines are some of the major sources of informal money
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Facts: In liquidity terms you can make from $250,000 to $470,000 with only 1kg of pure cocaine . We are talking of the greatest economy of the planet: drug trafficking. The size way bigger than Apple and Shell together, more than $400 billion.
Hawala Hawala is a method of transferring money without any actual movement of money. Transactions between Hawala brokers are done without promissory notes because the system is heavily based on trust.
transfers across the globe. Although a lot of countries have legitimized the structure, a lot of people still function illegally due to high regulations and license fee surrounding it. It is supposed to be of the size of around US$500 billion remittance system. To have an idea of working kindly look below for the money transfer made to Faisal Shahzad according to Michael Freeman and Moyara Ruehsen. The up point is that they charge just 1-2% of the transaction amount as fees and the money is made available in no time.
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Money Services Businesses
The Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) defines money service businesses (MSBs) as “currency dealers or exchangers; check cashers; issuers [or redeemers] of traveller’s cheques, money orders, or stored value cards; and money transmitters.” There are around 33,000 MSBs in US alone. The feature that makes it so delicious is that you don’t need an account but just a valid ID to transfer the money to any part of the globe. Western union and American Express come under MSBs. To give an overview please find below a flowchart of money transfer made before 9/11 by the Al Qaeda according to Michael Freeman and Moyara Ruehsen.
Formal Corrupt Banking
Although banks across the globe are highly scrutinized but formal banks can be a way of harboring these activities due to either a very desperate financial situation and not asking a lot of questions before accepting a deposit or making a transfer. E.g. – alMadina Bank in Lebanon. Or through a crooked employee who harvests laundering for a kickback, like the case with Lebanese Canadian Bank. Or through the use of correspondent accounts or thepayablethrough-accounts of correspondent banks, like the screw up made by HSBC.
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False Trade Invoicing
It is one of the most complex methods and is generally achieved through over invoicing or under invoicing. A classic example would look if a US based terrorist buys some Wheat and then exports it to Afghanistan; he would over price it for let’s say $100,000 (a mild hike of around just 5-10%). When the importer pays for the wheat the cost price would go towards paying off the US producer while the rest in terrorists pocket. Such method was used to fund HEZBOLLAH by over pricing the used cars.
The below graph shows illicit financial outflows through false trade invoicing according bangkokpost.com
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Is Japan our
True Friend? By Gautam Sethuraman & Prateek Kumar Rastogi IIFT Kolkata || ICAI
“And you, what are you? . . . talking twaddle all your lives, vain talkers, what are you? Come, see these people, and then go and hide your faces in shame,” exhorted Swami Vivekananda as he urged the Indian youth to emulate the Japanese, and admonished them for setting the bar very low.
India-Japan connections can be traced back into the 19th century when Vivekananda placed Japan on a pedestal. However, the two countries never tapped into the cultural ties, and maintained a “neither love nor hate” relationship till the end of 20th century. Japan and India are the second and third largest economies in Asia, respectively. The countries have complementary strengths. Japan is an industrial giant despite its small size and dearth of natural resources. India is huge, and has vast human and material resources. Japan is stagnant with an aging population. India is emerging, and houses a vernal population. The two democracies have a common view of peace and economic progress. Despite the green flags strewn along the road, the relationship between the two democracies never lived up to its potential due to ideological differences and
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bureaucratic hurdles. It started with Japan looking at India as a possible colony during World War II, even occupying Andaman Islands, perpetrating several atrocities, an excerpt from the chapter Prime Minister Shinzo Abe wants the Japan’s posterity to not read. At the same time, Subhas Chandra Bose sought to use Japanese strength to overthrow colonialism in India. The countries flirted back and forth post India’s independence.
Continuing their steady convergence as close partners, the coast guards of India and Japan concluded an exercise in the Bay of Bengal.
Japanese Prime Minister Nobusuke Kishi visited India Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru in 1957. They tackled issues like the spread of nuclear weapons, economic assistance, and international peace. As a result, India became the only country ever to whom Japan extended an Overseas Development Assistance (ODA) back in 1958. This was also the first yen credit transferred to India. However, their relations took a hit when Japan showed no interest in politically intervening in the Sino-Indian border issue. In the 1960, Japan was the only non-Western country that was able to match the growth of the Western powers. As a result, Japan started expanding its sources in Southeast Asia to gain comparative advantage. India's closeness with the then Soviet Union, and its non-alignment policy during the Cold War didn't sit well with Japan, as it perceived it as sympathy towards Soviet Union. (Japan had a military alliance with the US post World War II.) Japan also adopted the wait-and-watch approach during the Bangladesh crisis in the 1970s, when India sought its intervention.
In the mid-1980s, Rajiv Gandhi anchored India's baby steps towards liberalising its economy. Trying to shift control from public to private sectors, Gandhi visited Japan thrice between 1985 and 1988. The opposition parties, trade unions, and the middle-class protested against the 'western influence'. As the party received setbacks in state elections, he eventually succumbed to the pressure. The interactions between India’s regulated, protectionist economy and Japan’s free enterprise economy remained stymied.
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Things took a better shape in 1990s. When India was mired in the Balance of Payment crisis in 1991, Japan supplied $3 billion to India as contingency loan to help India recover from the crisis. Prime Minister Narasimha Rao visited Japan in 1992 seeking its cooperation in liberalising the economy. Japan soon became the third largest foreign direct investor in India.
Abe's India Visit: Breaking New Ground in JapanIndia Relations. This trip saw further boost to the co-operation to the two Asian giants.
Source: www.igrdr.ac.in
Strains emerged when India conducted Pokhran-II, a series of five nuclear bomb test explosions, in 1998. Japan and other countries including the US, imposed sanctions on India, limiting investments. Back in 1974, when India conducted the ‘Peaceful Nuclear
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Explosion’ test, Japan had raised concerns about it. Japan and the US shared concerns over the expansion of the nuclear club. Japan would later ratify US' Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1976.
Abe, during his visit in 2006, described Japan’s relationship with India as “the most important bilateral relationship in the world.”
Turn of the century provided new hope for the relationship as Manmohan Singh’s government rolled the red carpet for Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. This proved to be a game-changer in India-Japan relations. Singh visited Japan in 2006, when Japan was made the official partner in the Delhi Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC) project. Japan offered to provide financial and technological assistance for the DMIC project.
The corridor would transgress the states of Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Maharashtra, and aims to transform these regions into an economic hub. The corridor envisages infrastructure development not limiting to freight rail network, industrial parks, special economic zones (SEZs), ports, power plants, and food-processing parks along the stretch between the two major commercial hubs of Delhi and Mumbai. Apart from the world class infrastructure, it is expected to generate employment for 3 million people in India. A similar plan has also been devised for the Chennai-Bangalore Industrial Corridor (CBIC). Subsequently, the two countries, after a seven-year negotiation entered into a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), which took effect in August 2011. Japan wanted to emulate South Korea’s success in navigating India’s business culture.
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The two leaders are equally wary of China’s influence in the South China Sea. They look to revive their economies by tapping into each other’s potential.
CEPA was comprehensive in that it not only covered goods and services trade, but also included areas like investment, competition policy, intellectual property rights, and government procurement. Duties on 94% of products were removed over the next decade. This resulted in a smoother exchange of goods, services, capital, and people between the two countries. The bilateral trade during Manmohan Singh’s second term 2009-2014 doubled.
Source: DIPP
Now, it is only fitting as India’s Prime Minister, who swears by Vivekananda, also idolises Japan. Even as Chief Minister of Gujarat, Modi developed close links with Japan. More than the country, Modi seems to admire the idea of Japan. He entered into a MoU with Abe in 2014 to develop Varanasi in the model of Kyoto. The bonding between the two countries is set to enhance several times. Mr. Modi aims to break free of the Western-style economic liberalism, and mimic the East Asian model of heavy spending on infrastructure. This will help India modernise its economy by going beyond services. Shinzo Abe and Modi are both conservative leaders, and share a great rapport. Abe greeted Modi with an uncharacteristic hug during his visit to Japan in 2014.
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Japan bore more than half of the Delhi Metro Rail project’s expenses in the late 1990s. Currently, metro initiatives have sprung up in 30 other cities across India.
When Abe took to Twitter, the first world leader he followed was Modi. Modi, when he visited Japan in the first few months of assuming office as PM, wanted to “write a new chapter” in their bilateral relations. While these may be perceived as attempts at flattery, these gestures have deeper meaning. Japan can outsource its manufacturing to India, helping the Make in India initiative gain momentum, offer technology in transportation and space, and help India build smart cities. (US, on the other hand, has always been wary of transferring technology to India.) Recently India and Japan signed a deal to build a high -speed train connection implementing Shinkansen technology for the first time. The proposed 500kilometer railway will link Mumbai in western India and Ahmadabad to the north, the journey would take about two hours. Construction of the high-speed network between two of India’s most commercial hubs is estimated to cost 980 billion rupees ($14.68 billion), will begin in 2017, with the aim of starting railway operations in 2023. Although China also make a bid for the project and the estimated cost of Chinese technology was also
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very cheap in comparison to that of Japan and China is well-known for its cheap technology but the deal goes in favor of Japan.
Why Japan?
So why India chooses Japan in place of China despite of low cost well, here are some reasons:
Renowned Technology
Incorporating Shinkansen technology into India’s railway network is a positive step towards decreasing accidents and derailments as the Japanese technology is renowned for its emphasis on safety. In more than fifty years Japan has seen only two derailments – one during a blizzard and one during an earthquake and no fatalities were there owing to derailments or collisions, Continuous upgrades to the technology have ensured that the average delay is 36 seconds and a series of earthquake countermeasures triggers automatic braking that can stop a train travelling at 187mph within 300m. On the other side Chinese technology despite being cheap is not reliable.
Virtually free finance
Where on one hand India was in need of funds for this project, on the other hand Japan has excess of funds which gives a strategic advantage to both nations. Japan has offered to finance India's first bullet train, estimated to cost $15 billion, at an interest rate of less than 1 percent, stealing a march on China, which is bidding for other projects on the world's fourth-largest network.
What is catch?
the
Remember that there are no free lunches in this world. Japan is not our altruistic rich brother to help us build our home. It is a plain business strategy and an effective sales pitch. Let us analyze the loan as to what it is, how is it going to be implemented and why?
Here comes the catch
Japan has offered to meet 80% of MumbaiAhmedabad high speed train project cost provided India buys 30% of the equipment including coaches and locomotives from Japanese firms.
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Table showing lending rates of different countries for different years. Why was the loan offered?
Economic Perspective Excess money
Geo-political Situation
Country
2013
2014
2015
India Japan USA China UK Brazil
10.6 1.4 3.3 6.6 0.5 36.6
10.3 1.3 3.3 6.0 0.5 27.4
10.3 1.2 3.3 5.6 0.5 32.0
Switzerland
2.7
2.7
2.7
Japan is the world’s third largest economy. Japan has a declining population rate and its youngsters are more focused on their jobs and careers than on their personal relationships. The working population reduces and there is a stall in consumption and hence demand. The economy undergoes stagnation. The sovereign wealth fund i.e. the excess money (the savings and accumulated forex) of Japan is huge. Japan’s announcement of $1.26 trillion public pension fund in autumn, has send tens of billions of dollars into new markets. Taming the Chinese dragon: The Chinese have the largest high speed rail network in the planet. China has been awarded the feasibility study opportunity to study the HSR Network between Mumbai and Delhi, if there are two shopkeepers instead of one in the above analogy, then more competition and sweeter deals. China has won the contract to build a HSR in Indonesia beating the Japanese, so Japan hopes that the Mumbai-Ahmedabad deal will be swung in its favor by the soft financing. Japan also views aggressive Chinese investments overseas with suspicion as a tool for growing Chinese dominance in the South East Asian region. Japan also views India as a reliable ally and a partner in checking the Chinese dragon. So the offering of the sweet deal is a mix of economic ingenuity and geo politics at play.
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Dragon Enters the SDR Basket By Milan Modi & Preyas Jain KJ Somaiya Institute of Management Studies and Research
Mumbai
SDR and entry of Yuan in the basket of currencies
About SDR
Statutory Drawing Rights is a kind of reserve of foreign exchange assets comprising of leading currencies globally and formed by the International Monetary Fund in 1969.
Introduction
Before 1969, all the international trade took place in US Dollars. So if Brazil wanted to import Ford cars from USA, the latter would accept the payment only in dollars. In order to settle accounts, the world used US dollars and Gold. The countries could use gold holdings and commonly accepted currencies to buy their local currencies abroad in order to maintain their exchange rates. But the world trade increased at a rapid speed and thus the supply of gold and the dollar was insufficient in the new developments of financial markets. In order
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Fin Fact Global Financial Crisis The biggest single-day loss ever in the history of the Dow occurred on September 29, 2008, when it dropped 777.68 points, or approximately $1.2 trillion in market value. Five years prior to 2008, 11 banks failed. In 2008, 25 banks failed and were taken over by the FDIC. In 2009, 140 failed
to address the issue, IMF created an asset that could be exchanged for freely usable currencies - Special Drawing Rights (SDR). SDR consists of 4 major currencies of the world - US dollar, Euro, British Pound and Yen and is also known as a 'basket of national currencies'. After a period of five years, the composition of this basket of currencies is reviewed and the weightage of currencies may be altered. This adjustment of weights is done by taking into account the contribution by its member counter to world trade and national foreign exchange reserves. As of September 2015, SDRs worth US$ 204.1 billion had been created and allocated to members of IMF. During the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09, the SDR allocations totaling 182.6 billion played an important role in providing liquidity to the global economic system.
Source: Money Morning Staff Research
Entry of Dragon
The pie chart shows the percentage share of four national currencies in the SDR in 2015. The image also shows the new share by with Chinese Yuan eats up a considerable share of the pie.
IMF decided to include Yuan into its SDR basket as a 5th currency, along with the British Pound, the Euro, US Dollar and the Japanese Yen with effect from 1st October 2016.
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Central banks across the world use their reserves of foreign currencies to buy their own currency or pay international debts. Now the inclusion of the yuan would mean these banks who tend to hold their foreign exchange reserves in either dollars or euros could have an option. . For many emerging economies of the world, trade linkages with this Asian giant are already strong and now their reserves could reflect this understanding.
What does the move by IMF suggest?
This addition of Yuan’s in the basket indicates that the IMF believes about the global standing of the Chinese currency, similar in strength to other four currencies currently in the basket.
The decision to include the yuan is landmark milestone in the assimilation of the Chinese economy into the international financial system.
Although China is marred by other problems, this assimilation shows the progress that the Chinese authorities have made in the recent past in reforming China’s economic and monetary systems.
How will this recognition affect the Yuan?
The Chinese economy was in a growing string for the past ten years. However the growth numbers started ailing since 2014. The country also devalued its currency numerous times to increase its exports in the world. In order to have a firm hold in the global trade of currencies, China was pursuing since many years to enter this international basket.
Short Run
Free usability of the currency – this is one of the pre-requisites for a currency to be included in SDR basket. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has also clarified that it would allow the currency to be increasingly determined by market forces. In the near future, this may lead to more volatility.
Long Run
The inclusion of the yuan is likely to result in the currency becoming more international. Many Central banks around the world will be encouraged to increase their holdings of the yuan. Asian countries like South Korea, and Indonesia are planning to increase their Yuan reserves. The currency may appreciate in the long-term as there may be an increased demand from the investors for the yuan.
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Fin Facts The United States comprise of 20% of the world’s purchasing power
If the currency does appreciate, it is likely to back the government’s determination in rebalancing the economy. The Chinese government’s plan to decrease the economy’s reliance on exports and investment and to increase the contribution of consumption to economic growth reinforces its intention. A stronger yuan will act as an incentive for the consumers to purchase foreign goods and restrict the burgeoning current account surplus of China. Over the last few years, China has run large surpluses that have been blamed for causing global imbalances. Furthermore, with the official recognition of yuan as a global reserve currency, China may attract more FPI inflows, especially from sovereign wealth funds because of accommodative monetary policies in Europe and Japan. Currency appreciation usually follows higher foreign inflows.
The Counter View
After a lot of equivocation the Chinese Renminbi has at last made its way into the SDR basket. However, according to many economists the move is largely symbolic as it isn’t going to have an impact on the ground reality as regards its increased circulation in the international market is concerned. The reason being that SDR is not a floating currency and cannot be sold and purchased in the international currency markets. It will be used by the Government of the IMF members to settle their inter se accounts through books.
Yuan making its way into the SDR basket is no big deal
Moreover, it played an insignificant role in the 2008 world financial crisis with its epicenter in the USA. Therefore, Yuan’s elevation is, to a large extent, a non-event except that it has fueled larger expectations as to whether this is an antecedent to the currency eventually becoming yet another reserve currency. Whether or not, it will become another floating and freely available currency in the international market is a big question one might ask.
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Impact on India
The move to include Yuan will indirectly benefit India. Till now, India had to bear the brunt of China’s overcapacity as well as its devalued currency. The latter will now pose a lesser threat as the ability of China to influence its exchange rate will become more restricted which will consequently make its exports less competitive. As the PBOC (People's Bank of China) allows markets to be more open and accessible to outside investors, this would give Indian investors a chance to invest in Chinese companies which are not listed in the Hong Kong and NY stock exchanges. Good thing for Indian investors: This generally would include small cap and mid cap opportunities for Indian investors
Shadow Banking System Shadow Banking System is a system of financial intermediaries involved in facilitating the creation of credit across the global financial system, but whose members are not subject to regulatory oversight.
The Bottom Line
BRICS Bank do not have to buy and sell loans in U.S. Dollar. BRICS Bank will issue loan in Yuan. The countries (other than BRICS) will have to pay Yuan to BRICS Bank to buy the loan. At maturity, BRICS Bank will payback in Yuan. The value of loan will depend on the exchange market value of Yuan. The stable Yuan will encourage investors to buy the yuandenominated bond. Like BRICS Bank, India will benefit in a similar way. We all are well aware of the fact that how much RBI's monetary policy depends on U.S. Central Bank's decision to cut interest rate. Even stock market go high or low on hearing a rumor about U.S. interest rate hike or cut. Such high exposure to U.S. Dollar is a sign of concern. U.S. can use this dependence in its favor in areas like climate change and WTO negotiation. So, Yuan's inclusion in reserve currency basket will allow India to diversify its portfolio. Although, India will still continue to depend on Dollar, Yuan will give India a little breathing space.
The projected higher inflows may materialize only gradually. Global central banks need not increase their reserves just because the change in SDR basket. The transparency and reliability of Chinese financial data is often under the scanner with its notorious shadow banking hiding a lot of bad debts.
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The Central bank restricts the fluctuation of yuan within a tightly defined range which is a bad sign to any floating currency which by definition must not be hamstrung by any restrictions.
Tied Loan Loan made by a government agency to a foreign entity that requires the borrower to spend some or all of the money on goods or services from the lending country.
Due to favorable circumstances and the first mover advantage gained by the US Dollar in 1944, it remains the only true global reserve currency with US dollars sloshing around outside the US estimated to be as much as within the US. A large number of Chinese capital goods manufacturers give or arrange ‘tied’ loan so that both the currency and such goods are sold. However, the oil exporting nations are happy accepting dollar payments rather than in any other currency. Although China is the world’s largest exporter and the largest economy after the US, the Economist rather pertinently points out that the Yuan is not going to become a global reserve currency in the foreseeable future and will inspire confidence only among those who have strong economic ties with China.
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Fed Rate Hike
Effect on Emerging Economies By Prajesh Gupta NMIMS Mumbai
Introduction
The recent announcement by Janet Yellen regarding the U.S. central bank's policy-setting committee, which had raised the range of its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point was an expected one. The interest rates have been hiked to between 0.25 percent and 0.50 percent. Though the rate hike was expected by many, the assumptions of its effects are varying. While some experts state that it might cause another slowdown in the U.S, other say that the hike will harm emerging economies.
Current Performance of Emerging Economies
China accounts for nearly 30% of the economic activity of emerging economies and it is the largest buyer of commodities. The Chinese slowdown has led to decline in the rates of commodities. The private sector debt has risen to extreme levels, especially in China, Thailand and Turkey. On the other hand countries like Chile, Mexico, Hungary and Indonesia have high foreign currency borrowing. India has been able to sail through this period due to oil price decline and focusing on domestic demand. Corruption scandals in Brazil have rocked their vulnerable economy. It is the emerging economies that are displacing the developed nations as the most troubling cloud on the economic horizon.
Consumer Spending
There are a few indicators which state that US economy is resurging, consumers are spending at the fastest pace since recession. Sales of new and previously owned homes are rising. The U.S. has generated 12.1 million new jobs in the past five years. The unemployment rate is down to an eight-year low of 5%. It is half of what it was in 2009. This has helped increase spending of the average American. A stronger labor market and cheap gas are fueling consumer spending.
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Percentage Unemployment in the United States Source: Bloomberg
Effect of Rate Hike on Other Emerging Economies
A major advantage for institutions of emerging markets was the low interest rates in the US. Emerging market governments, corporations and banks took advantage of low cost dollar finance to shore up their finances. Data from the Bank of International Settlements show similar figures reported by the IMF that emerging market borrowing have doubled in the past 5 years to $4.5 trillion. The vulnerable list issued by the Fed and by Moody’s in 2015 show that Brazil, Turkey and South Africa appear most consistently and have the largest external borrowing challenges. Credit Default Swap (CDS) market also helps describe the credit stress in emerging markets. The figure below shows Brazil and Turkey are under deep credit stress and any actions by the US Federal Reserve can have dire consequences on their economy.
Annual Default Probability from 5year Credit Default Swap Spread Source: Deutsche Bank Research
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Since the Federal Reserve raised interest rates from record lows last month, the global picture has darkened. Stock markets have plunged. Oil prices have skidded. China's leaders have struggled to steer the world's second-biggest economy.
The period of economic recovery had seen a rise in capital inflow of US $4.5 Trillion till 2014. The rate hikes could also lead to reversal of capital flow from emerging economies. Political turmoil and high inflation of about 9% are already plaguing Turkey. Withdrawal of capital due to rate hike can further harm the economy. South Korea has the benefit of one of the largest current account surpluses in the region but its economy is vulnerable to foreign shocks. Its majority of exports are to China, which has been facing a slowdown and hence a rate hike by the Federal Reserve can amplify its losses. Corruption is plaguing Brazil, while the oil price crash has already affected Russia. China’s private sector is ridden with debt. However, it's foreign exchange reserves, have declined but the country still has the largest foreign exchange reserves and possesses ample buffers to repay overseas creditors and honor import commitments compared to others. Actions of US Federal Reserve will strengthen the dollar against the emerging market currencies. Evidence from the past rate hikes shows that stock markets reacted positively, at least on eight out of 10 occasions, for almost all the emerging economies. It should also be noted that the equity markets saw a bullish phase. Increasing risk appetite among global investors made them flock to emerging markets. It was only on two occasions that the stock markets reacted negatively. , foreign investors who had already invested in these markets will fear that the depreciation will wipe out their profits and hence capital outflow can be accelerated.
Federal Funds Effective Interest Rate
Source: Bloomberg
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Effect on Indian Economy
Nearly $3 billion worth of investment had been withdrawn by foreign investors before the rate hike. Most of the money withdrawn has been termed as shortterm money, there is still enough residing in the markets and can leave, depending on future hikes. According to experts, the Indian economy has a positive outlook. The external balances have significantly improved since 2013. Foreign exchange reserves rising by a margin of $65 billion as of November 2015 and the current account deficit (CAD) is narrowing. Sinking oil prices have been a boon in this regard and have helped in reducing the CAD. Unlike other emerging powers, India is less dependent on commodity exports, and thus has not been negatively affected by the global rout in commodity prices. Only a small part of India’s sovereign debt is denominated in foreign currencies. India’s favorable economic growth outlook in the range of 7-8% makes it a relatively attractive option for foreign investors. The bond rates and currency will gain. Bond yields are likely to soften and the rupee is estimated to stabilize between 66.366.8 to the US dollar. The rate hike brings a suspense attached to it, especially for the emerging economies. The growth rate of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which captures growth trends in large and mid-cap companies in emerging markets, has increased over the years, exhibiting better prospects for these countries. However, the exit from zero policy rates will cause serious problems for those nations which have large borrowing needs, large stocks of debt most of which are in US dollars, and monetary and fiscal policy shortcomings. China’s economic slowdown, along with a nosedive in commodity prices, will create additional headaches for emerging economies, most of whom have not implemented the structural reforms to their economic policies.
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Deconstructing Indian Banking’s Achilles Heel By Rachit Jain XLRI Jamshedpur
The Indian Government seeks extra $4 billion capital boost for PSBs to beat NPA blues�
The headline published in a newspaper daily pretty much sums up the situation in the Indian Banking sector at the moment. The banking sector has been grappling with the problem of non-performing assets for over half a decade now. When borrowers are not able to pay back the amount they borrowed from banks and other lenders as per agreed terms they are classified as non-performing assets by the lender. Under ordinary circumstances when financial institutions (FIs) perform at a moderate efficiency level the ratio of non -performing assets to total lending of the bank should not be more than 2%. To put things into perspective, the Indian financial system is currently witnessing NPA levels close to 6% totaling to more than 4,00,000 crores, with an additional 10% in restructured assets.
Private Sector VS Public Sector Banks
As one may intuitively anticipate, the private sector banks have clearly outperformed their public sector peers in this space as well, i.e. they have been much more efficient and have had lower number of stressed assets thanks to better due-diligence and credit appraisal mechanisms. Also, a very important factor in getting things back on track for banks with NPAs is their recovery. Private Banks with their better management expertise, skill set and non-bureaucratic behavior have managed to recover their bad loans at a much faster rate than public sector banks like the State Bank.
The Regulators Role
The Reserve Bank of India came up with the Securitization and Reconstruction of Financial Assets and Enforcement of Securities Act (SARFAESI Act) in 2002 to enable banks deal with the problem of non-performing assets by vesting more power with the banks on the
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NPA Figures for Indian Banks Public Sector Banks State Bank & Associates Other Public Sector Banks
The Securitisation and Reconstruction of Financial Assets and Enforcement of Security Interest Act, 2002 (SARFAESI) empowers Banks / Financial Institutions to recover their nonperforming assets without the intervention of the Court.
As on March 2015
As of June 2016
Figures in INR Crores ₹ 73,508
₹ 73,557
₹ 269,483
₹ 285,748
Total (PSBs)
₹ 342,991
₹ 359,305
Private Sector Banks
₹ 31,857
₹ 34,710
Grand Total
₹ 374,848
₹ 394,015
legal front to facilitate recovery of such loans. Along with the SARFAESI Act, other bodies and mechanisms were set up to ensure smoother resolution of non-performing cases and enable both the lender and the borrower reach an optimal solution. These institutions were the Board for Industrial and Financial Restructuring (BIFR), Debt Recovery Tribunals (DRTs) in each state, Corporate Debt Restructuring Mechanism (CDR) and now the Strategic Debt Restructuring (SDR). How ever, none of these have really helped (barring a few cases) in recovery or resolution but have only contributed to deferring the problem by a few years if not more. In line with establishments in European and South Asian economies like Korea and Singapore the RBI started giving licenses for setting up companies which would deal in the secondary market for these bad loans and help in recovery, resolution and in many cases reviving these fledgling business by infusing fresh capital into them. These companies are called Asset Reconstruction Companies (ARCs). In India, as on date there are 15 such ARCs dealing in the business of non-performing assets. The primary business model of an ARC is to acquire bad loans from banks at a discounted value and try to maximize recovery to generate a return on investment which is generally higher than the usual ROI because of the higher risk involved in the transaction. One could compare it to the business of junk bonds in mature financial markets.
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Why mechanisms like the CDR, BIFR and now SDR are not the solution?
As exclaimed earlier, these methods have failed miserably and continue to do so, here’s why. Most of these mechanisms are developed for the restructuring and resolution of big ticket transactions involving a consortium of lenders. More often than not, it would take almost 20-24 months only for the lenders to reach a consensus with a restructuring or stimulus package to support the business entity and create a win-win situation for all parties involved. In situations where banks having to compromise on their recovery value, smaller banks may sometimes jeopardize the entire package by not playing ball. RBI rules mandate for at least 60% of lenders (in terms of loan exposure) and 75% of no. of lenders to agree for any proposal to get through the respective mechanism, i.e. CDR/BIFR or SDR.
Increasing number of failed cases under the Corporate Debt Restructuring Scheme
Challenges faced by the Public Sector Banks
Having spoken about the inefficiency of Indian banks and PSBs in particular to control and keep the amount of slippages towards stressed assets in their books, there are certain issues in the system which do not allow much room for managers at the head office and branch level for avoiding the current problem. If you thought that corrupt practices of business honchos getting loans sanctioned for big proposals (in excess of 100 crores) via the finance ministry in Delhi were a thing of the past then you are sadly mistaken.
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Facts In the year 1990, more than 15 lakh cases filed by Banks and Financial Institutions were pending before various courts involving an amount of more than INR 6,000 crore. The DRTs are on an average disposing off more than 11,000 cases involving an amount of around INR 21,000 crore every year.
Capital Boost & How the Tax Payer eventually suffers
Things like due diligence and checking for viability of a project go over the window once there is a call from the ministry babu to get a proposal sanctioned at any public sector bank. The manager at the branch, the general manager at the head office and the directors, all are left with no choice when such a directive arrives. Another grave issue lies in the legal system. The challenges faced by banks to enforce their rights as lender for recovery of bad loans are as bad as those faced by the aamaadmi in getting his pension from the government coffers. Debt recovery Tribunals (DRTs) are not only marred with bureaucracy but also have inefficient management in terms of number of Presiding Officers (judges in the DRTs are called POs) available to hear the pleas of banks and not to forget the level of corruption involved in delaying tactics by promoters and their lawyers.
Coming to how this entire problem is directly related to the common man on the street who pays his taxes to the government. If you had a good look at the first quote of the article you might have guessed it. Basel III norms are to be implemented by banks which would require banks to have a higher capital base. The total regulatory requirement under Basel III guidelines will be in the form of a 2 Tier structure - Tier I Capital (going concern capital) will mandate banks to have 5.5% of total risk-weighted assets (RWAs) in the form of common equity, in addition to this there will be a requirement of capital conservation buffer (CCB) to the tune of 2.5% of RWAs. Tier II Capital (gone concern capital) would comprise of general provision and loss reserves which will be another 2% of RWAs.
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Therefore, we can understand the situation which is pressurizing Indian banks to maintain cleaner books of accounts to be able to raise fresh capital from the public and institutional investors come 2017. A proposal floated by Mr. Jaitley to get approval for an injection of $4 Billion in the current fiscal of which 50% was earmarked to inject liquidity into state-run banks.
Healing the Achilles Heel – Strategy for Change Facts About CVC CVC is only an advisory body. Central Government Departments are free to either accept or reject CVC's advice in corruption cases. Although CVC is relatively independent in its functioning, it has neither resources nor powers to inquire and take action on complaints of corruption that may act as an effective deterrence against corruption.
Having seen the various issues and reasons for the same, let us take a look at what could possibly be done by various stakeholders to curb the issue of existing NPAs and reduce further slippages in the long term. The first step which needs to be taken is in line with making the Central Vigilance Commission (CVC) more proactive. The CVC has all the tools in place to punish those who have resorted to unlawful means to avail sanctions from banks either by bribes or by their rich contacts in the ministry. Second and equally important is careful due diligence. Banks do not have the necessary wherewithal to undertake effective due diligence for credit appraisal. Three aspects need to be taken care of while sanctioning any limit – Financial, Legal and Real Estate due diligence. Each of these activities needs to be first performed in isolation to assess feasibility and then a combined report needs to be prepared to determine the final go ahead with the loan facility. On the resolution front, Fast track DRTs could be setup for cases with outstanding debt of more than 100 crores to make sure unnecessary delays are avoided and disputes if any between the borrower and lender are also settled at a much faster pace. As far as ARCs are concerned, they have been accused of being overly conservative while bidding for acquisition of bad loans. The RBI needs to put some thought into how to bridge this gap between expectations of bank and ability of ARCs to offer a decent bid such that it creates a win-win situation for both institutions. Another proposition would be to set up a bad bank to digest all the bad loans and allow public sector banks focus more on their core competencies. An attempt like this was made though on a very small scale by
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the RBI by setting up IDBI SASF (Stressed Asset Stabilization Fund), however with no concrete resolution strategy in place for various types of accounts it has now become a burden more than an efficient tool to take care of the pool of stressed assets.
Impaired Assets Ratio (Gross NPAs + Cumulative writeoffs as a proportion of total advances) / Cumulative writeoffs
The problem of businesses not doing well due to micro or macroeconomic factors will always be there. What would differentiate the scenario today from maybe 10 years from now is the ability of financial institutions to identify problems at their roots and spot early warning signs. To be able to extend credit only to the most suitable and be patient with examining proposals. There is still a lot to be done in this space and finding the right synergy between borrowers, banks, and the regulator is key to address this huge issue engulfing the banking sector at the moment.
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Commodity Crisis By Amogh Sathye NMIMS Mumbai
Slump in commodity prices Indian Perspective Crude Oil There are concerns that lower oil prices in particular could put downward pressure on inflation in developed economies and further delay the hiking of interest rates
While the western world celebrates Christmas, India has been celebrating for almost all of 2015 and shall be looking forward to enter the New Year on a positive note with a sanguine tone set by Modi as he clearly believes “India's progress is our destiny”. Happiness is “in the air” as the airline industry is ecstatic about the lower fuel costs. The optimists know that with India’s consumption basket now costing much lesser than before, there are reasons to cherish. According to Economic Times, for every $1 reduction in crude oil price (per barrel), India saves INR 6500 crore on its import bill and a further INR 900 crore on subsidy burden. Undoubtedly, the fall in crude oil, which constitutes 79% of India’s imports, is a welcome change for India as far as expenditure is concerned. While the opposition continues to make his life difficult over the GST bill, this gives the Finance Minister Mr. Arun Jaitley a reason to smile and be confident about meeting the fiscal deficit target of 3.9% of GDP in 2015-16, 3.5% in 2016-17 and 3% by 2017-18. As the dynamic government has been getting the foreign policy affairs right with oil partners such as Iran and UAE, the lowering fiscal deficit looks sustainable. According to brokerage CLSA, India can add at least 3%, that is, $60 billion, to the GDP if the prices stay at current levels. Goldman Sachs is betting that the prices will fall to $20 per barrel so this assumption is certainly “realistic”. US crude oil prices have hit their lowest point since July 2004. Some recovery was observed earlier this week but it has been too little as Brent remains well below $40 per barrel.
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In the first eight months of FY16, oil imports fell 43% year-on-year to $61 billion from $107 billion in the same period of FY15, according to the CLSA report. However, it must also be noted that the oil-related exports have fallen to $21 billion from $44 billion in the same period. The net exports ‘Xn’ is clearly positive. It also needs to be noted that the increase in the GDP will be much higher because of the multiplier effect.
Investors in the secondary market may not invest in industries that have oil-related exports. But one must realize that the GDP is unaffected by the buying and selling of stocks in the secondary markets. According to the available data, sovereign funds (largely oil money) own 9 % of FII equity in India. Not only did they not fall, but, they have increased by INR 20,000 crore from December 2014 to November 2015. Clearly, the FIIs have not been fans of “bearishness”.
Metals and Steel
During China's economic boom energy and metal companies around the world ramped up production to levels that are now unsustainable.
However, the root cause seems to be lower demand rather than higher supply. This is true as a weakening China indicates low demand due to slowing economic activity. China is undergoing a change as their economy is transforming into a capital intensive one from a labor intensive one. As this change is large, it will take China a few years to start growing at the rate that they were used to in the last decade. A falling Brazil also paints a similar picture. Europe stands on the brink of a deflationary quagmire with consumers playing the waiting game as they anticipate a better deal next week or next month. This means that the prices of other commodities such as metals shall continue to tumble. Also, India seems to be the lone man standing as far as the world economy is concerned. The cost of building infrastructure has reduced with steel and metals such as aluminum and copper are available at cheaper costs. With CIL increasing mining activity, India’s coal bill will certainly reduce in the long term but the falling coal prices are an advantage in the current scenario. Mr. Modi has launched three projects — Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation, (Amrut), Smart Cities Mission, and Housing for All Mission in Urban Areas. The National Infrastructure Investment Fund, with an initial corpus of INR 40,000 crore shall be a very active investor in infrastructure in 2016.
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Such projects will require a high amount of metals and steel as they are invariably required in construction activities.
Major commodity exporting countries such as Russia and Brazil will be among the biggest losers, and of course mining companies and oil producers have already been cutting jobs and reducing their capital expenditure – proof that they are feeling the effects
High prices meant that it was difficult for consumers to buy houses. However "housing for all by 2022" with an allocation of INR 4,000 crore to the National Housing Bank means that houses will become affordable. With inflation well under control and with the interest rates being reduced by RBI, the sector is certainly set to thrive. Mumbai alone used to consume 3000-3500 tons of steel every day when the demand for housing was at its peak. A reduction in prices of commodities saves huge amount of money to say the least. The railway budget mentioned that 917 road bridges (both under-bridges and over bridges) are to be constructed to replace 3438 railway crossings. The cost is INR 6581 crore. A bullet train has been proposed in the Mumbai-Ahmedabad sector. Further, high speed rail networks are to be setup in the diamond quadrilateral connecting the metros. CIL needs special purpose vehicles for mining purposes. Also, airlines shall be increased between small cities. The development of 4G would certainly require more towers. In fact, a Credit Suisse report mentioned that RJio has built 28000-30000 towers comprising a mix of poles and ground based towers. Transport minister Mr. Nitin Gadkari‘s Sagarmala project aims to develop the ports with an investment of INR 70,000 crore. Infrastructure development along the country’s 7500 km long coastline would require metals and steel for sure. Green companies like Enel Green Power are looking to invest in India. This is in line with Modi’s plan to develop 175 GW of renewable energy by 2022. These would require steel and metals for the buildings and the equipment. Cheaper steel is a blessing for them. Frugal engineering will always remain in fashion in India. The Renault Kwid has topped the charts because of affordability. In fact, the auto industry as a whole grew rapidly as October was the third month that saw a double digit growth (22%) in passenger vehicle
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sales. Cheaper metals and steel certainly boost these industries. Introducing a minimum import price for steel after proposing a 20% import duty for 200 days mean that the government is playing a smart game and protecting the local industry while the sectors for which steel is a raw material enjoy the benefits of its low cost.
Gold
Gold is falling but this means golden days for India. India is primarily an exporter of ornaments and the total jewelry exports crossed the $36 billion mark in 2013. India imports gold primarily from Australia and South Africa. So, a fall in the price of gold and silver means cheaper raw material for the industry. With the big players (Titan– INR 9500 crore, PC Jewelers– INR 4500 crore) showing good financials, the estimated CAGR of 15.95% for the jewelry industry looks achievable and the jewelry industry is set to reach a size of INR 530,000 crore by 2018.
Bloomberg Commodity Index (Last 10 Years)
Source: Bloomberg
Sentiment is of prime importance when we speak about gold as people buy gold as hedging against other volatile investments. Further, due to inflation, there had been a tendency to hoard gold. But with a consistent drop in gold prices over the past 3 years, the pattern is set to change. Further, the government is doing their bit to discourage hoarding by introducing attractive Gold bonds which will compete against
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the existing Gold funds. These gold bonds shall track the price of gold, provide extra interest along with income tax benefits. Also, there will be no bond management charges.
Conclusion
The current sentiment among experts is that gold will fall further. Gold and dollar share a contrarian relation as asset classes. As the Fed rate has been increased, an appreciation in dollar is expected which in turn will make gold less attractive causing prices to fall. Another factor making gold less attractive is the reduction in demand by China. All this will further decrease the popularity of gold. This means that the disposable income of consumers shall be diverted towards other forms of investment leading to an increase in GDP. All in all, it seems that the fall in commodity prices are a boon for India. With Modi pushing India towards progress, they are poised to grow at more than 7% in the next year having already surpassed China’s growth rate. We are destined to become an economic superpower and the fall in commodity prices is a tonic increasing our strength further. Now is the time to be optimistic about the dreams such as “India 2020 (by Dr APJ Abdul Kalam)”. Well, at least Modi and Jaitley would agree!
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Fin Cross
ACROSS
DOWN
1 An investment to reduce the risk of adverse price movements in an asset
2 Negative Inflation
4 Exchange of one financial instrument for another 9 Financial instrument that gives you the right but not an obligation to buy or sell 10 A situation which arises when any historical event affects the future economic path 11 A contract between two parties which derives its value/price from an underlying asset 12 Clubbing its different financial assets/debts to form a consolidated financial instrument 13 Act of selling a security at a given price without possessing it and purchasing it later at a lower price
3 Sharing the profits 4 Right with the insurance company to sue a person or entity responsible for any damage or disability suffered by the insured 5 Risk-less profit 6 An issue of shares offered at a special price by a company to its existing shareholders in proportion to their holding of old shares 7 Temporary pass through account held by a third party during the process of a transaction between two parties 8 Employee benefit plan which is intended to encourage employees to acquire stocks or ownership in the company
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Oil
Can it go any lower? By Vaibhav Agarwal IIFT Kolkata
The US has the 10th largest oil reserve in the world. Venezuela has the largest, with 298.40 billion barrels compared to the US’ 36.52 billion barrels. India ranks 22nd with 5.675 billion barrels of oil reserves.
For the past one year, almost all the so-called major monetary and fiscal policy headline makers have taken the back seat to be convincingly overpowered by just one commodity- Oil. No longer have the talks of Quantitative Easing, Fed rate hikes, government bailouts and negative interest rates attracted the never ending global stimulus. The crashing oil prices and its repercussions on the global markets has left everyone stumped, proving to be a boon for some countries and a bane for some others. The breathtaking decline of the oil prices has taken the commodity to a price level not seen since 2004. The oil supply over the last 16 months has been way above the global demand to an extent of over 1.5 million barrels per day. This supply-demand gap is not only due to over production, but many macroeconomic factors.
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Global Oil Demand & Supply
Source: International Energy Agency
Why is the Demand–Supply gap?
Simple economics suggest that the gap increasing demand in demand and supply is due to overproduction by oil producing nations. Falling oil prices has forced the OPEC, not to compensate on market share despite falling oil prices because of their overall advantage of low cost of oil extraction. But there is more to it.
The story American Oil
United States suffered a huge blow from the economic recession of 2008, and it took them nearly a decade to show some healthy figures. They did it by cutting exports and resuming Shale oil production, which was banned in 1970s due to environmental concerns. This resumption not only limited their oil imports, but also added to the employment of the country.
of
In the mid 2014, when oil traded at more than $100/ barrel, more than 50% of the supply of US oil producers were hedged by domestic consumers at prices averaging around $90/barrel. This hedging now accounts for the compensation of current low prices. But unfortunately, the time has run out where hedging practices has fallen and futures contracts are about to expire. With no contracts, no price guarantee is there, and no production estimation for US oil producers. The threat of closure is eminent.
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The US oil producers has been cutting oil production since an year as the new hedge price is beyond their cost. With oil moving below $30/barrel, the producers just got a chance to hedge price at $50/barrel, but at a very low premium of only $4/barrel, instead of $7/ barrel. The only reason the producers could snap this contract was a case of modest price recovery in mid January, else they would be out of business by June 2016, with no contracts. The closure will push people out of jobs, and increase burdens for the United States, and virtually, the government is also backing the US oil producers. 4,000 recent job cuts by British Petroleum, is an indicator that falling oil prices will worsen the unemployment data (5.0%), which is vastly die to unsustainable jobs and people working way below qualification. The Eurozone crisis as well as the Chinese economic slowdown is also a major contributor of this drop. Global oil consumption increased by just 0.9% in 2015. Chinese demand growth is at the levels of 1988 and that of European Union at the levels of 1985. The use of alternative sources and fuel efficient transport has dragged down the demand. Oil supplement of total global energy has dropped from 50% to 40%. Clearly, oil is not the only source of energy. The average age of a car in the US has now gone down to around 11.5 years and hence the replacements are coming in much more rapidly. The world on the whole has been driving more miles but these vehicles are definitely not using more oil due to the tremendous increase in fuel efficiency.
No one wants to cut first
A normal course of action to stop this dramatic slide would be a reduction in the production of oil by the OPEC and other major producers. But, this situation has proved to be involving many “headless chickens� running about clueless and unsure on how to react.
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The OPEC, Russia and other major producers fear the loss of market share which they can lose to one another in case they reduce the production. In fact, a bunch of small U.S. operators buried under the debt from banks have started producing even more oil to compensate for their loss in revenues in order to satiate the banks. Saudi Arabia on the other hand is facing a double edged dagger in the face of Iran’s entry onto the global scenario. With their depleting financial reserves the Saudis still cannot afford to loosen the grip over the widely captured market share upon which the Iranians have a very sharp eye.
Entry of Iran
The return of Iran to the oil market will be “adding more fuel to the fire”. It would definitely impact the oil markets gradually with the National Iranian Oil Company announcing an increase of more than half a million barrels of oil per day and subsequently shoot it up to 1 million barrels per day by mid 2016. Gradually emptying its floating reserves of 40 billion barrels into the global markets even at lower prices will be an income gain for the Iranian economy struggling to come out of the sanctions.
Crude oil prices
This would only add to the agony of the Saudis who have already been aching from their depleting financial reserves in order to make up for the loss of revenue from oil extraction and distribution.
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Over the past year and a half, many foreign delegations have been reportedly exploring the country’s trade potential and were eagerly waiting for the nuclear deal to be agreed which has now been successful. The recent developments have seen Iran ordering 114 planes from Airbus, Russian companies working on intense infrastructure projects and the European car powerhouses approaching the country’s capital city Tehran with lucrative sales plans. This would result in development of Iran’s market to grow intrinsically and provide the country a chance to change destroy the balance of power as well as profits in the region.
This return of Iran to the global front presents an opportunity for almost every nation barring the United States as both the nations show no signs renewal of relations. The United States has still maintained sanctions on Iran which have barred most of the sales and all investments. Worried about further “reputational risks” are the famous banks including Barclays, HSBC, Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse, ING, and BNP Paribas who paid millions of dollars to the US regulators for the violation of these imposed sanctions.
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Quite understandably, global business leaders would not risk jeopardizing business relations with United States for Iran.
Iran has many friends
Iran used to supply 25% of South Africa’s crude oil requirement. After the sanctions, South Africa switched to Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and Angola. But after lifting of the sanctions, Iran will retake that share back. The interesting thing here is that South Africa is the second biggest refiner of oil in the African region after Egypt and their refineries are designed as per the characteristics of Iranian oil.
South Africa
During sanctions on Iran, South Africa had to go through the process of changing the refineries. But as Iran gets back to business, South Africa has come up with a refinery contract for partnership with Iran. This trade will be a win-win situation for both the countries. However, the current major exporter to South Africa is Angola with 12% share , which Angola is going to lose.
Asia Majors
Also, the pre-sanction major importing countries India, China and Japan will switch to Iranian oil if the prices are low. Moreover, Iran offers India to pay for oil in Indian rupees instead of US dollars. This strategic partnership will enable India to resume Iran as its major oil supplier.
Break Even Economics
For some nations, oil price has crossed the breakeven operating cost of production, but the countries are still producing just to maintain a steady flow of capital. However, the OPEC nations, having an edge on this factor can bear the wrath of low oil prices. This model of operating under loss is not new, but most of the producers are relying on the contribution margin, where the low operational cost of oil production is lower than US$ 20/barrels for most nations.
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Oil Production Volume and Cost
Source: Knoema
Global Break-Even Price and Current Price of Oil
Source: Knoema
With OPEC forcing other nations to produce oil below their marginal cost, just because they can bear the heat is disrupting the economic stability of the oil producing nations.
Impact on Russia
Russia has been most adversely affected by the recent plunge in oil prices. Its oil revenues constituted more than half of its budget revenues and approximately 70% of its export revenues, have dropped significantly, with an estimated US $2 billion loss in revenue for Russia per dollar fall in oil prices.
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Venezuela
Oil comprises 95% of Venezuela's exports and 25% of its GDP. Precipitous fall in oil prices caused the bolivar currency system in Venezuela to crumble and pushed the country to the verge of defaulting on its considerable debt. Venezuela used its revenues from high oil prices to fund its budget and wield political power, by providing subsidized oil to as many as 13 neighbouring Latin American countries, most notably Cuba, Venezuela extracted political favours and attempted to build a coalition against rival nations, namely the U.S. With nations, reeling under huge budget imbalances, rise in oil prices is dire to their survival. Even Saudi Arabia decreased subsidies on oil after suffering a huge US$ 98 billion in budget deficit.
Oil Prices Needed for Budget Balance (US$)
Source: Deutsche Bank and IMF
What if OPEC had agreed to cut down on the production in November 2014
Had the OPEC decided to cut down on its production by a mere 1 mb/day out of 40 mb/day, their market share would have been at 38.9% of the entire crude oil market. This move would have easily enabled them to hit the right chord and the price levels could have been maintained at around $80-$85 /bbl. But it is not so.
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January 2016 4 50
Corporate Finance Off the Books
By Prashant Dokania CFO & Commercial Manager Dabur International, Lagos, Nigeria Corporate Finance mainly deals with how we have brought the money in the business. You see, if someone has to start the business, how is he or she going to start – either you have some money or you will ask your parents, relatives, friends or banks to help you start a business by providing you some funds. This is called how one funds his business and the money you invest in business is called the Capital. And the objective of this funding arrangement is to maximize the return of the owner or you can say promoter or shareholder.
Now, its very interesting – you will think, how the way of funding the capital will help in maximizing the return. Does it matter if someone has got the capital from self / family / friends / relatives or banks? Yes, it matters a lot. It is very important to understand who finances a business. If it is your own money, that you invested in business, you may listen to different categories of people but the decisions you make will be your own. But suppose, someone has lent you this capital to invest in your business, then they will also like to understand what you are doing and may influence your decisions in some way.Secondly, the regulatory norms ( Govt) also treat the source of funds in different way. Source of funds can be Shareholders / promoters / owners Capital or family / friends / relatives have funded against some share of profit which also comes under Shareholders Capital as there is no interest payable and they have participated in the profit/loss of business. There can be another way of funding – that is Debt. In this case, this kind of funding can again be provided by family / friends / relatives or Banks. In this funding, the funder asks for interest and does not have any stake on the profit or loss of the business.
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Make a Difference A good financial officer can create enormous value. For example, when Jerome York switched from being the CFO of IBM to being the CFO of Chrysler, Chrysler's stock gained $1.3 billion the next day, while IBM's stock fell sharply.
Pay is Rising Pay throughout corporate finance areas is up. Average annual pay of CFOs in Fortune 100 companies exceeds $1 million. The compensation includes salary, bonus, 'other' income, stock options exercised, and restricted stock. Superstar CFO's can make more than $5 million per annum.
Now the interesting part is – if you get the funds as share capital: there is no interest payable and if you get the funds as debt : you pay interest. Again – if you pay interest : you are allowed to charge it as an expense in your profit or loss account. But if you have funded your capital with shareholders funds, there is no interest which means you dont have nay expense to charge to profit or loss account. This means your profit will be more if it is funded by shareholders funds and less if it is funded by interest bearing debt. This looks very simple – why we will have less profit and its better to have the funding from shareholders funds. Now – there is a challenge: The Income Tax. When you earn profit, you pay income tax on profit. How much Income Tax you pay – it is currently @30%+surcharges. If you make profit of 100, 30 will go to Income Tax and balance 70 will be left with you. If you had funded 50% from interest bearing debt and your total investment was suppose 500 to make a profit of 100, that means you would have borrowed a debt of 250. At the current rate of interest of say 12%, one would have paid interest of 30. So the profit would have been only 70. Now you pay Income Tax of 30% which comes to 21. So, the balance remains with the business is 49. See, by investing 500 – one was earning 70. And by investing 250 – one is earning 49. Which is better? 70 out of 500 is 14% return on investment and 49 out of 250 is almost 20% return on investment. Suppose, your relative was willing to invest with you and you had the chioce between capital or debt, and you chose debt – you would have made 49+30=79 as profit instead of 70 if it was only shareholders funds.
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January 2016 4 52
Investor or Trader The Indian Way By Pratik Dokania IIFT, Kolkata When it comes to saving money, most Indians prefer bank deposits, life insurance policies and ULIPs, but these hardly take care of the inflation. This scenario makes wealth creation necessary. Wealth creation, can be done in only two ways, investing in a business, or equity market (or both). For, most of the Indian population, the scale of capital requirement for a business is not available, so the only favourable option is investing in the equity market. But, there is no established hard and fast rule for profitably investing in the market.
Ranking based on preference and proportion of Indians choosing the mode of investment
In India, less than 2% of the population invests in equity market, while it is more than 10% in China and 18% in the United States. The main reason for this low proportion is heightened negative popularity of someone losing money in the market, than someone gaining from the market. More than 60% of Indian investors have lost money to the market due to low performance of initial public offerings in the last decade. In India, investing in the equity market is considered a game of luck, and by that intuition, only 2% of Indian population consider themselves lucky! It is true that with high return, high risk is also associated. But pledging money in the equity markets without any understanding of the markets is mere speculations, and speculation is the worst mode of making investment decisions. Speculators or traders tend to
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"Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1" - Warren Buffet
lose more than they gain. Hopes are high when one enters the equity market and often, rewards are overestimated by looking at a few performance graphs of the past. But, sustaining in the share market is not easy. Do the potential rewards weigh out the risks involved? That completely depends on the individual. The difference between a trader and an investor is not just the trading style, but the strategy of pledging money in the markets.
Allocation of Funds in different assets by an average Indian
Source: Karvy Private Wealth
Stock market bubbles don't grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in reality, but reality as distorted by a misconception. - George Soros
In India, most people who enter the market, lack basic strategies for doing so, and end up losing to the market, thereby marketing a negative popularity about this mode of investment. The worse part of this is, those who lose money to the market, invest more by selling or mortgaging their assets, in order to get back their lost money and end up losing that too. The first rule of investing in equity market is always investing with the surplus money one has. Investing with the surplus money which one can afford to lose in the market without disturbing the daily living is always advisable. Pledging assets is considered a bad move, as returns are not always guaranteed.
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January 2016 4 54
"The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing." Phillip Fisher
"The individual investor should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator." Ben Graham
Another disillusion in the Indian society is that the affairs of the stock market are for the rich and professionals and are manipulated by a few big players. People also perceive that one needs discrete knowledge in order to invest in the equity market (which is true to some extent but not entirely). It is true that investing in equity markets is a learning process and it takes time to develop profitable buy and sell decisions. But, it does not mean that one has to be rich to cover that initial losses one may make if investment goes south. Losses are always a proportion of your investment, and if you make losses, consider them a learning cost, and re-enter the market following the first basic rule. Before entering the equity markets, one should always keep in mind that investing in the market is a long term plan (time bound investment) supplemented with high frequency of short term fluctuations. When Indians enter the equity market, they do it as investors, but behave like traders and end up selling high performing stocks earlier than one should hold and hold only badly performing stocks. This behaviour is the outcome of booking profits when targets are reached and ignoring the concept of stop loss. One can never be an investor as well as a trader at the same time. One does not have to be George Soros to invest in the equity market. The basic rule of markets is that, the returns are an indicator of economic growth. More the economic growth, more the returns from equity market. While investing in a company, the primary requirement is one’s personal belief in the future growth of the company. . Knowing about the company, its past performance, future growth potential and growth drivers, markets, and basis finances is the prerequisite of investing in the company’s share. By owning a share, one is a part owner of the company, and a basic business sense suggests that you get out
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“Investing money is the process of committing resources in a strategic way to accomplish a specific objective.” Alan Gotthardt
If you’re prepared to invest in a company, then you ought to be able to explain why in simple language that a fifth grader could understand, and quickly enough so the fifth grader won’t get bored.” Peter Lynch
of a business, if you see no future growth and the same is the case with equity shares investment. Investing with this strategy offers a higher the probability of positive returns. Another important aspect of investing in the equity market is having a diversified portfolio of company stocks. Not only one company, but also multiple sector. Having shares of only one company or companies of only one sector contains more risk. All industry sectors do not carry equal growth prospects. Some are more driven by global economic scenario and some are less. Over reliance on one sector is dangerous, when the economy is dynamic. Investing in equity markets is also an affair of selfdiscipline and being honest with oneself. One of the best ways of managing one investments is the tool of stop loss. However there is no defined percentage of stop loss one can set, as it comes entirely with experience, understanding the resistance and support prices of stock by analysing the market trends. Other means of controlling losses are avoiding trading on margins. Always remember the proverb “Only borrow what you can afford to lose”, as it comes handy in equity trading. Discipline and patience is the key of generating returns from the equity market even if the market is volatile. Before investing in the Indian equity markets, we also need to understand the background of Indian equity market. India has one of the oldest and best operated stock exchanges viz. BSE and NSE, which offer modern platforms for conducting trades. India’s equity market is dominated by foreign institutional investors, owning more than 70% of the total shares. This makes Indian equity share market highly vulnerable to global economic fluctuations. India is in dire need of more local funds in its equity market to get rid of macroeconomic imbalances. This huge imbalance of
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January 2016 4 57
"Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas." Paul Samuelson
market shares create huge side effects and makes it difficult to define extended logic to market fluctuations lowering the confidence in investment. Investment in equity shares is considered one of the best methods of wealth creation, but only for those who have executed this option wisely. Weighing proper risks and rewards ratio is the investors’ first job. The generation old illusion of markets being the reason of wealth depletion is no more relevant. With more than 5% of the nation’s wealth idling in low yield savings bank deposits, the productivity of nation’s wealth remains unexploited and possess good potential. As wise business leaders, utilizing this option of investment not only increases out financial independency, but may also help the nation to increase its share of domestic investments, which is good for long term.
“Games are won by players who focus on the playing field –- not by those whose eyes are glued to the scoreboard.” Warren Buffett
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Fin Cross (Solution)
InFINeeti | New Year Edition
January 2016
Financial Focus
4 58
VIX Outside of `Red Zone' Indicates No Recession, Goldman Sachs Despite a recent surge, the so-called fear index remains in a trading range that suggests investors aren’t expecting a recession this year. Read More... Here's What China Is Doing to Tighten Noose on Capital Flows China is increasingly resorting to administrative measures to curb capital outflows and calls are mounting for further restrictions as the defense of the yuan burns through the nation’s foreign-exchange reserve. Read More... Edelweiss gets IRDA nod to raise stake in joint venture with Tokio Marine Edelweiss Tokio Life Insurance today received IRDA approval to increase Tokio Marine's stake to 49 per cent in the Joint venture. This will be a primary investment by Tokio Marine in the joint venture, a first within the Life insurance space. The increase in Tokio Marine's stake will lead to a foreign direct investment of over Rs 525 crore. Read More...
InFINeeti | New Year Edition
January 2016
59 Financial Financial FocusFocus
4
RBI seen easing only once this year as inflation climbs - Reuters poll The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to leave its key interest rate steady at 6.75 percent next week and only make one cut this year as rising inflation ties its hands, according to a Reuters poll. That marks a turn from rapidly cooling domestic consumer price inflation, which allowed the RBI to lower the repo rate four times in 2015. Read More...
India set to extend RBI term for deputy governor Urjit Patel The government is set to extend the term of the central banker behind monetary policy changes that have helped reduce the country's chronically high inflation, signaling confidence in Governor Raghuram Rajan's team at the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Read More... China shares tumble 3 per cent, taking 2016 losses to $2 trillion Chinese shares fell sharply again on Wednesday after plunging in the previous session, taking losses in 2016 to nearly 25 per cent or 13 trillion yuan ($2 trillion). The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index was down 3 per cent in afternoon trade, having tumbled 6.4 per cent on Tuesday to its lowest close since Dec 1, 2014. Read More...
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January 2016 60
Equity Research Report
Tata Motors By Rashi Bblani IIFT Kolkata
About the Company
Industry Analysis: Indian Automobile Industry
Tata Motors is one of the largest global automobile manufacturers and covers a wide range of cars, sports vehicles, buses, trucks and defense vehicles. In order to find out the intrinsic value of a share of Tata Motors, we need to first look at the Industry Analysis of the Automobile Industry. The Automobile Industry can be divided into 4 segments:
If we look at the market share by volume, we find that the two wheelers dominate the industry followed by the passenger vehicles.
Market Share by Volume
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Porters Forces
Five
Indian Automobile Sector 23.37 Million Vehicles in FY 2014-15 7.1% to country’s GDP
Using the Porters Five Force Analysis, we can obtain the following results with regard to this industry:
Threat of Competition: The threat of completion is high in the post liberalization data. Entry of foreign players has increased the competition
US$300 billion revenue by 2026
Threat of new entrants: Threat of new entrants is medium because of the capital intensive nature of business. High investment acts as a barrier for entry
100% FDI under automatic route
Threat of Substitutes: Threat of substitute products is low since public transportation continues to be less preferred in developing countries
Bargaining power of the Suppliers: the bargaining power of the suppliers is low since most of the auto components manufacturers specialize in products related to only one client
Bargaining power of the Customers: Customers have a high bargaining power since a lot of options are available and due to the competitive nature of the industry.
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India Second largest manufacturer of two-wheelers
According to a report by IBEF, the domestic sale of Passenger vehicles is expected to grow at a CAGR of 12.39% during 2015-26. Domestic sales of commercial vehicles are expected to increase at a CAGR of 11.57% while that of three wheelers is expected to increase by 3.9% during 2015-26. Exports of automobiles are expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.77% during the same period. The growth in this industry can be attributed to the following key drivers:
World’s third largest automobile manufacturer by 2016 end Automobile Exports CAGR 14.65%
Excise duty reduced to 8% from 12% to promote “Make in India”
Growing Demand: Strong grow th in demand is estimated due to rising level of disposable income. This is supplemented by the initiatives taken by the Government to set up manufacturing plants under the Make in India Campaign
Bend towards innovation: Variety of innovations were seen in this segment with a focus on low cost and high utility
Rising Investment: W ith the start of the make in India campaign and a growing technology base, it is estimated that greater investments would be induced
Policy support: The Government aims to develop India as a global research and development hub. This is coupled with support in form of taxes and FDI encouragement. The Automotive Mission plan 2016-26 has also been set up with this objective in mind.
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TATA Motors Established– 1945 Employee Strength – 60,000 Company Turnover - $42 billion Vehicles >900,000
Sold-
Sales and Service Points- >6,600 Presence in 175 Countries Only Indian Firm on Top 50 Global R&D list Passenger Cars SUVs Busses Trucks Utility Vehicles Defense Vehicles Jaguar Land Rover
Tata Motors is the largest automobile manufacturing company in the world by volume, with presence across a range of passenger cars and Commercial Vehicles (CV). It is the market leader in terms of volumes in CV Segment (including, Light Commercial Vehicles + Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles segments) and enjoys market share of approximately 58% in CV segment which has grown consistently over the last few years. Tata Motors is planning to launch a series of passenger cars (hatchback, sedan and sport utility) vehicle until FY2020 to increase its market share and has plans to launch two new cars every year. In order to give the recommendation of buying or selling this stock we have performed a Discounted Cash Flow analysis on this stock to find its intrinsic value. Terminal Values
Total Revenue from Operations
: 76,115.14
Total Value
: 121,469.49
PV Factor
: 0.64
Present Value
: 77.926.07
Our findings generated the following results:
Intrinsic value per share = 576.62
Market Value per share = 336.70 (BSE)
Our Recommendation: BUY
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DCF Calculation of Tata Motors In INR Crores
FY14A
FY15A
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
FY20E
Net Sales (A) Growth (in %)
34288.11
36294.74
41,013.06 13.00%
46,754.88 14.00%
53,768.12 15.00%
62,371.02 16.00%
72,350.38 16.00%
Other Income (B) Growth (in %)
3293.00
1477.00
1,152.06 -22.00%
979.25 -15.00%
881.33 -10.00%
837.26 -5.00%
837.26 00.00%
Total Revenue from Operations (A+B)
37,581.11
37,771.74
42,165.12
47,734.14
54,649.44
63,208.27
73,187.64
Employee Benefit Expenses Percentage of Sales
2887.00 7.7%
3091.00 8.2%
3,339.23 7.90%
3,843.26 8.10%
4,363.97 8.00%
5,068.29 8.00%
5,856.40 8.00%
Other Operating Expenses Percentage of Sales
26,040.00 69.3%
28,267.00 75.1%
30,441.37 72.20%
35,155.41 73.60%
39,851.47 72.9%
46,322.30 73.30%
53,502.79 73.10%
EBITDA Margin (in %)
8,664.11 23.1%
6,313.74 16.7%
8,884.52 19.90%
8,735.46 18.30%
10,434.00 19.10%
11,817.69 18.70%
13,828.45 18.90%
EBIT Margin (in %)
6,594.11 17.5%
4,250.74 11.3%
6,071.80 14.40%
6,122.81 12.80%
7,439.69 13.60%
8,356.25 13.20%
9,819.46 13.40%
Capex Percentage of Sales
940.00 2.5%
1,843.00 4.9%
1,556.01 3.7%
2,045.31 4.3%
2,179.17 4.0%
2,614.40 4.1%
2,972.77 4.1%
Depreciation & Amortization
2,070.00
2,063.00
2,312.72
2,612.65
2,994.31
3,461.43
4,008.99
Net Capex
-1,130.00
-220.00
-756.71
-567.34
-815.15
-847.03
-1,036.21
31.4
31.4
31.4
31.4
31.4
31.4
Receivable Turnover Ratio Closing Receivable
8,852.00
9,672.00
1,342.84
1,520.20
1,740.43
2,013.00
2,033.82
Opening Receivable
8,455.00
8,852.00
9,262.00
5,302.42
3,411.31
2,575.87
2,294.43
Change in Receivable
-820.00
7,919.16
3,782.22
1,670.88
562.86
-36.38
Payable Turnover Ratio
8.6
8.6
8.6
8.6
8.6
8.6
Closing Payable
451.20
406.30
3,539.69
4,087.84
4.633.89
5,386.31
6,221.25
Opening Payable
412.00
451.20
431.6
441.4
436.5
438.95
438.73
Change in Payable
44.9
-3,108.09
-3,646.44
-4,197.39
-4,947.36
-5,783.53
Change in Working Capital
-864.90
11,027.26
7,428.66
5,868.27
5,510.23
5,747.15
30.00%
30.00%
30.00%
30.00%
30.00%
30.00%
FCFF
-3,707.56
37.30
3,148.97
4,647.61
6171.67
Year
1
2
3
4
5
PV Factor
0.92
0.84
0.77
0.70
0.64
Present Value
-3,392.59
31.23
2,412.67
3,258.39
3,959.30
Tax Rate
Firm Value Cash and Cash Equivalents Enterprise Value
30.00%
84,195.07 2,454.70 81,740.37
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Calculations Tax Rate
30.00%
Post Tax Cost of Debt
5.35%
Beta
1.82
10 Year Treasury Bond Yield (Rf)
2.19%
Cost of Equity
11.99%
Debt/Capital (Wd)
40.72%
Equity/Capital (We)
59.28%
WACC
9.28%
Debt ( In INR Crore)
10,919.38
Equity ( In INR Crore)
15,895.88
BSE Sensex
Market Return
Financial Year
Open
Close
Annual Return
2011
17,055.04
19,463.11
14.12%
2012
19,063.11
17,429.96
-8.57%
2013
17,029.96
18,890.81
10.93%
2014
18,890.81
22,455.23
18.87%
2015
22,455.23
25,960.03
15.61%
Average Return Source: www.bseindia.com
10.19%
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January 2016 66
Is 2016, the year of
Economic Apocalypse? By Nitin Agarwal
FIN TREND
IIFT Kolkata
In 2008, World economy sank into The Great Recession: The most widespread and deepest downturn since the Great Depression of 1920s and 30s. Since 2008, World economy is trying to recover but it has been marked with slower growth rate along with persistent bumps in the road all the long way. Some indicators showing positive sentiments may include S&P index risen by 92% in the past 5 years. Also, U.S. unemployment rate has dropped from 10% at the time of global recession to close to 5% in 2015. However, it is to be noted that a lot of this apparent growth has been fueled through huge injection of capital through quantitative easing, Government bailouts and loose monetary policies. According to latest IMF Forecast, World GDP Growth rate of 3.5% is lesser than the expected average 4.5% that preceded The Great Recession. In the United States and Europe
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alike, investments levels are low, productivity growth is extremely weak and therefore the export sector is just providing a little contribution to the recovery. Also growth is slowing in Asia and world trade is probably going to grow at a slower rate than GDP. It is a recovery while not a true improvement in the business cycle, vulnerable to a variety of factors.
Because the real economy has lagged in many ways, it might be the case that we are on the brink of another global recession. Here are some signs that a recession may be on the horizon.
Economic Situation in Europe
Due to crisis, 350,000 people had crossed into the EU for the eight months ending in August 2015. This is 70,000 more than arrived in the whole of 2014. It’s more than the entire population of Iceland. Total refugee population has crossed 1% of the European Union population
Europe represents a significant part of world economy. Four years after the Global financial crisis, Sovereign debt crisis in Euro zone is a looming threat to the recovery of World Economy and it may lead to the next global recession. The Financial crisis in Europe began with financial markets losing confidence in the creditworthiness of Greece and other periphery countries. Also, Interest rates on government bonds soared to levels that forced the governments of these countries to ask for bailouts from the international community, including the IMF and European Community. Although Greece represents a relatively small portion of the Eurozone, the fear is that if Greece leaves the Eurozone (the so-called Grexit), other PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Spain) countries will follow and contagion will spread, putting an end to the Eurozone. A collapse of the euro would have widespread negative consequences for the world economy, perhaps leading to recession. The first crisis may be due to government debt. Consider general government gross debt as a share of GDP. There are some pretty high numbers: 83.9%, 82.3%, 75.5% and 94.3%. Those are not for the European countries on the brink of collapse but for Germany, France, the UK and the US, respectively. The figures for Greece, Italy and Ireland are 142.7%,
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Germany was under fire for mismanaging Greece and the entire European financial crisis. With Greece in particular, many observers suggested that Germans simply didn’t care about the suffering of others. Now Germany has pledged to take in an estimated 800,000 refugees this year, earmarking an additional $6.7 billion for the refugee crisis. It’s a remarkable turnaround for Berlin—and its image.
Beneficiary of Asylum Protection in EU by nationality
118.9% and 94.8%, respectively. These figures are expected to rise due to increase in deficits, pensions and healthcare costs in the coming years. PIIGS banks' exposure to their own sovereign debt is distressful. Of the $763 billion in sovereign debt held by ninety European banks, 59% of it was held by banks within the country that issued it within the first place. 78% of the sovereign debt is held by Spanish banks. Because the risk of holding that debt will increase, these domestic banks may find it difficult to raise funds from other financial institutions. These resources will become more expensive as countries lose their creditworthiness. Country
2011
2012
2013
2014
Germany
78.4
79.7
77.4
74.9
Ireland
109.3
120.2
120.0
107.5
Greece
172.0
159.4
177.0
178.6
Spain
69.5
85.4
93.7
99.3
France
85.2
89.6
92.3
95.6
Italy
116.4
123.2
128.8
132.3
United Kingdom
81.8
85.3
86.2
88.2
Source: Europa/Eurostat
One of the main factor shaping Europe’s political future in the decades to come is the referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU. The economic and political results of a British move towards isolationism (Brexit) could be devastating for World economy. The idea of Europe open to free trade and dynamic markets may shift more towards a more bureaucratic and centralizing theme. Europe and the United Kingdom
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Even as the risk of a Greek default setting off a chain of financial and banking crises has diminished since 2014, the Eurozone's overall economic problems have in many ways gotten worse. Unemployment rates have been high and at times rising in countries that weren't at the epicentre of the sovereign debt crisis at all
Economic Situation in US
will both be at a disadvantage in comparison to United States, Japan, China and India. The long term economic consequences could be deeply concerning for the UK. It will put London in a questionable situation as a financial center of Europe without its participation in the Union. The populist belief is that it is costless for UK to move away from Europe but it might be a dangerous illusion and the implications of Brexit would be quite high on world economy.
Source: Europa/Eurostat
Whenever an economy appears to slow down, Central banks typically employ loose or expansionary monetary policy to stimulate growth. This is done by lowering interest rates, Quantitative easing or through open market operations. Since Interest rates are already prevailing near-zero with some countries even started using a negative interest rate policy (NIRP), this tool may longer be effective for banks in case of next downturn. Also, quantitative easing and buying of government assets has already inflated the balance sheets of central banks to unsustainable levels. Thus central bank will not have any options in their hand to avert a recession. The Great recession of 2008 was accompanied by the debt crisis that has a lot to do with the burden of home mortgages issued to public who simply could not pay it back. These loans were bundled into
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securities called Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) and sold to investors with a non-credible ‘A’ rating. Similar situation is now arising in student loan market. Rating agencies pin a high credit rating to these loans although a student may not have the ability to repay as these loans are backed by the U.S. government. Outstanding student loans amount to as high as 1.2 trillion dollars which need to be paid back. To put this amount in perspective, Australia’s GDP in 2014 was only 852 billion dollars. Defaults on these loans will have two impacts. Firstly, it will impede the U.S. treasury’s ability to function properly. Secondly, it will prevent the young people from engaging in other economic activities like buying homes or cars. In June 2015, The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 5.3%, the lowest level after the financial crisis. But unemployment picture is not as rosy as it looks. It does not include workers who have taken temporary or part –time jobs for their livelihood. When it is accounted (called U6 unemployment), the unemployment rate comes out to be 10.5%. The labor force participation rate which measures how many people in potential workforce are actually working is steadily declining to levels not seen after the 1970s. Also for those working, the real wage has remained fairly stagnant or has fallen down to the average American from pre-2008 levels. A real wage indicates effects of inflation. So stagnation in real wage means weak economy, having no signs of any real economic growth in near future.
The Chinese Bubble Has Begun to Pop
When China sneezes, the rest of the world might not catch a cold, but it does feel bad for a couple of days. The question, though, is whether China is sicker than it seems and how contagious that would be for the global economy. China’s recent stock market selloff in January in which Shanghai stock exchange lost 15% of its value in a week’s time shows that Beijing might not have as
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François Godement, director of ECFR’s Asia & China programme, asserts that recent economic issues in China should be seen as part of China’s transition to a service-driven economy, rather than a deeprooted economic downturn. But how far?
much control over the economy as it seems. It has made one ham-handed effort to prop up stock prices to unsustainable levels by buying shares itself and restricting others from selling. This can only work as long as it keeps doing so. The recent Yuan devaluation puts a question whether china wants a cheaper currency or it can’t stop it from happening which hints bigger problems under its economic umbrella. Here China is trying to manage a slump at the same time when it is deflating a credit bubble that it wishes hadn’t happened. It might be very difficult to deal with the situation, even for the most competent government. The reason may be that Beijing now has to intervene even more to keep the economic growth today and also loosen its grip to keep it growing in the future. It is resulting into half-measures that won’t solve either problem. Also, the fears over this situation are making it even harder to solve these problems than they already are. Things should not be overstated. Chinese economy is not going to collapse at least in the near future. The growth may not be spectacular as before but it is real. There might be a slowdown further or faster than we assume, grinding down to 3 to 4% instead of 6 to 7% of growth.
Source: Haver Analytics; National Bureau of Statistics
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China—Synthetic Index PMI/Markit/ Caixin Survey
Source: Markit - Natixis AM
The question arises why it is inevitable for China to shift down its gear? The reason might be that its old growth model has ran out. There could only be few people shifted from farms to factories, a level of infrastructure could be built before the model ran out. If workers are making more they can spend more and rather than selling thing to foreigners it can power the economy. It may not be as simple as it sounds. You need to give time to the people to change their habits. Most importantly, you need to keep creating high paying jobs. In short term wages may go higher due to higher bargaining power of workers but in the long term it can only happen with increase in productivity. Workers need to make more or better products to make more money. This is only possible if china allows businesses to expand and open up its economy accordingly. Beijing has actually talked about the supply-side reforms, but, as it has been seen with the stocks, this determination to give markets a “free hand” in the economy has only lasted as long as they give a positive output for the economy.
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As the world's second largesteconomy, the colossal nation has a huge affect on global markets, including Britain. The record low inflation we're seeing in Britain is also in part down to a slowing economy in China.
In the same period, the real estate boom has led to developers building ghost cities where nobody lives, companies building factories that nobody requires, and local governments building airports that nobody needs. Prices may collapse in the Chinese housing market if the market sees oversupply that doesn’t meet demand. So far China has been able to keep prices from falling too far, but only through people taking new debt on top of the old. Of course it cannot work in the long-term. China's economy looks like a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma of unreliable data, but its currency might be telling a true story. The people who have invested money in the country are speculative that the economy is going to slow down more than the government says. In current situation, China is trying to keep its currency falling by buying Yuan through its dollar reserves. The problem is that if, after spending down its reserves, China is forced to let the Yuan slide, other countries may need to follow so that their exports remain competitive and emerging markets might find their debts too hard to pay back. The situation might arise similar to that of 2008 for world economy that is still struggling to recover from the last one. The rest of the world may be fine if China is just sneezing, but not if it's more than that. If Beijing slips into recession, it may probably drag down the rest of the world as well. That is the disadvantage of the collapse of the world’s second largest economy, when the largest depends on it to meet its needs.
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Crude oil prices have hit a 7 years low, after the decision by OPEC (the oil cartel) in Vienna to not put any limit on oil production in next year.
Impact of Oil Prices on Emerging Economies Crude Oil WTI (NYMEX)
Meanwhile, the prices of important raw materials like iron ore and copper have hit new lows. The transport of these resources in ‘bulk carriers’, as measured by the so-called Baltic dry index, has collapsed and is now at a 30-year low. Exports in the large so-called emerging economies like Russia, Brazil and South Africa, are mainly energy and other raw materials to the industrially developed economies of the mature capitalist world. Oil crisis and a price dip in commodities resulted in these countries slipping into economic recession, with their currency values collapsing. China is the largest consumer of these raw materials, but it has seen a significant slowdown in real GDP growth and is accumulating its own iron ore and copper, steel or trying to dump them abroad at low prices. The boom in the emerging economies was financed by borrowing dollars from the banks of the western world at cheaper rate. With exports coming down and falling prices, these debts will become very difficult to be paid back. With the fed rate hike, cost of borrowing has increased further. According to Bank of
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of America Merrill Lynch index data, the face value of dollar-denominated emerging economies sovereign and corporate debt has roughly increased by three times to 1.7 trillion dollars since the beginning of 2009.
Baltic Exchange Dry Index
The BIS is worried that the stricter financial conditions prevailing may also decrease financial stability risks. Average credit-to-GDP ratios in the major Emerging markets has increased by around 25% since 2010. There is increased risks of financial crisis in emerging economies due to rising debt levels, pushing debt service ratios for households and firms above long run averages, mainly since 2013. Debt service ratios may increase even further when lending rates will rise. Many of the emerging market corporates have borrowed heavily in US dollars in past years and any appreciation of dollar will additionally test the debt service capability of these economies. If emerging markets get into a debt crisis with corporates defaulting and banks going bust, the mature capitalist economies will also have to face the impact. Already, corporate debt has increased sharply in the United States and Europe as companies there took the advantage of cheaper loans to pile up the cash. But as profits growth of companies has gone down to near zero in the last year, corporate defaults and
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debt downgrades have increased. The Fed rate hike will worsen the situation further.
If we look at the overall global business activity, as measured by the purchasing managers indexes (PMIs), there was a slight improvement in November as emerging economies (red line) stopped contracting (on average). But the world PMI (green line), although showing expansion, is still lower than it was at the starting of 2014.
PMI– Business Activity Index
There are cases of history threatening to repeat itself, because the buildup to the 2008 crisis began on the periphery of the global economy. So, these are the final words: there may be no Global recession in 2016, but a fuse will be lit.
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MEET THE TEAM
Nitin Agarwal
Mechanical Engineer from MNNIT, Allahabad
Former Executive Engineer, Honda R&D
Intends to specialize in Finance and wants to pursue a career in Investment Banking
Loves to read non fiction in his spare time and is an avid traveler
Pratik Dokania
Production Engineer from NIT Trichy
Former Market Analyst, Futures First Info Services Pvt. Ltd.
Intends to specialize in Finance and Operations
Loves to read newspapers and study geopolitics and international history
Rashi Bablani
Bachelor of Commerce, Sri Ram College of Commerce, New Delhi
Intends to specialize in Finance and pursue a career in Investment Banking
Likes to read fiction novels
Vaibhav Agarwal
Computer Science Engineer
Intends to specialize in Finance and Marketing
Die hard fan of football and loves to spend time on novels
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January 2016
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