INFO - Vision on Mobility: En route to 2050 by INFO

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Vision on mobility: En route to 2050

June 2020

Looking towards the future with 11 keyplayers in mobility

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Table of contents 1- 2

Introduction: From 2020 to 2050 Remmert Stipdonk - INFO

3-6

7 - 10

Instant mobility: Mobility how, when and where I want it Toon Zĳlstra - Kennisinstituut voor Mobiliteitsbeleid

Martĳn Lammers - Lightyear

The car predominates, now and in the future

Mobility happiness: The social side of mobility

Ronald de Jong - ANWB

11 - 14

No pilots, no experiments, just do it Tarik Fawzi - Hely

15 - 18

19 - 22

Data as a prerequisite for a seamless mobility experience

Tania Rademaker - 9292

Niek Verlaan - Gemeente Utrecht

We need a Delta plan for mobility Joost van der Made - NS

31 - 34

35 - 38

Wouter de Bruĳne - Parkbee

Mobility is behavior

Learning about the future through the MaaS program

27 - 30

Hans Stevens & Stephanie Hughes de Verkeersonderneming

Customization is key

Eric Mink - Ministry of Infrastructure & Water Management 23 - 26

The right transportation at the right time

Dispersion is key

39 - 42

43 - 46

Suzanne Hiemstra - van Mastrigt - TU Delft

Conclusion: Mobility as mirror of our (social) behavior Iskander Smit - INFO

47 - 49

Introduction

From 2020 to 2050 It’s 2020. A year that starts with busy roads, crowded trains and

But nowadays highways are

countless initiatives to solve mobility problems. When we hear

filled up, trains are packed,

MaaS, we no longer think about that lovely Dutch river, but of

aswell as subways, and trams.

“Mobility as a Service”, which allows you to travel smoothly from A

Bicycle storages are full when

to B. The Netherlands is a beautiful and rich country that has always

you want to store your bike

thought far ahead when it comes to infrastructure. Centuries ago,

there, and empty when you

we dug out canals that made it possible for us to move around

want to rent or borrow one.

faster, and that had a nice straight path next to them to pull the

We’re running out of places to

barges. In the mid-19th century, the need for railways grew to

put extra asphalt to ease our

accommodate the newest innovation - steam trains. Soon, steam

mobility pains, and we can’t

trains, and later electrical trains, sped through the country to

make the trains any longer than

transport people and goods at the speed of lightning.

they already are. When we built

Unprecedented luxury, but as the 20th century progressed, we got

the world’s largest bike storage

even more spoiled. The car became the ultimate means of

facility, it was already at

transportation; faster, more personal, more luxurious, and more

maximum capacity before it

flexible. The more roads were built, the emptier trains became.

actually opened.

Introduction

What we can learn from this is

that will lead us on the way to

of this, we asked eleven experts

that mobility in the Netherlands

the next step in mobility.

from diﬀerent levels of the

is always a direct result of

industry to share their vision on

technological and societal

At INFO, the question about

mobility in 2050. We searched

developments: the train led to

how we can keep the

for the widest possible

more railways and more

Netherlands moving in the

spectrum of visions, and you

railways led to more trains. The

future is always on our minds.

will see that there’s not just one

same goes for cars and all other

Everything we do starts with an

answer on what mobility will

means of transportation that we

‘understand’ phase, in which we

look like in 2050. Therefore, this

use. But what do we have to

try to understand which problem

publication isn’t meant to be a

learn and understand about

we will solve and which possible

scientific research but should be

mobility today to do the things

solutions there are. We believe

considered food for thought. In

that will lead to keeping the

that every creative process

addition to inspiration, it also

Netherlands mobile in the

should start like this because if

oﬀers a glimpse into the

future? When we get a good

you don’t understand which

variables that parties who are

understanding of this we can

problem you are trying to solve,

shaping our future mobility are

start to think about solutions

you’ll probably end up not

considering.

solving anything in the end. Mobility is a comprehensive subject that isn’t easy to oversee or to predict. Because

Remmert Stipdonk CEO - INFO

Instant mobility: Mobility how, when and where I want it

Toon Zijlstra

KiM

When discussing mobility, we would be amiss if we didn’t include the Kennisinstituut voor Mobiliteitsbeleid (KiM: the Knowledge Institute for Mobility Policy) in the discussion. The KiM is an independent scientific institute within the Dutch

Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management and conducts research to provide the ministry with knowledge and insights concerning traﬃc and

transportation. Toon Zijlstra is their Senior Scientific Researcher and in this role, he mainly focuses on questionnaires and prognoses. Zijlstra: “During my training as an urban planner, I learned that the choices you make regarding spatial planning can determine

Hypermobility Zijlstra states that we are taking mobility issues too lightly. Yet, he feels that “we should be proud of what we have in the Netherlands”. Internationally, our networks of water ways, roads, railways, bicycle lanes,

the living space for decades to come. The use of space, the interaction between people and objects, caught my attention.”

3 lessons 2020 - Hypermobility is both a blessing and a curse

His interest in and knowledge of mobility becomes very clear when he talks about his vision on current and future mobility in the Netherlands.

2025 - The next stage of mobility will be initiated by the baby boomers 2050 - A mobility transition requires a complete overhaul of the socialeconomic system

KiM

Toon Zijlstra

“

“The current corona crisis teaches people that working from home is easier and more convenient than expected.” fiberglass and more, are very popular. However, there’s a small group of hypermobile people that lays a heavy claim on the available capacity. They travel at great speeds over great distances and people's mobility is increasing. It is becoming easier, cheaper and more comfortable to travel, wealth is growing and (mostly young people) have the tendency to forego simple camping in the Ardennes in favor of shopping in New York or surfing in Bali. “It became sort of a status symbol,” says Zijlstra. Busy trains, roads, and airports, vulnerability to disruptions, (in)direct traﬃc casualties, and the considerable claims on fossil fuels with all the climate problems that come with it can all be linked to modern (hyper)mobile society. In addition, this hypermobility allows the spread of diseases such as corona. He thinks that there is no simple solution to this problem, but that behavioral change is part of it regardless, and that it is both a social, and political responsibility to bring about this behavioral change. Fortunately, sometimes changes come quickly. "The current corona crisis teaches people that working from home is easier and more convenient than expected," said the researcher.

KiM’s role According to Zijlstra, the KiM plays an indirect part in our mobility. KiM’s various studies are used by governments, political parties, institutions, and companies that convert KiM’s data into action. However, KiM’s influence is diﬃcult to measure, says Zijlstra: “We are regularly quoted in letters and oﬃcial documents to the House of Representatives, which is a great signal. Journalists from magazines, newspapers, radio and TV all know where to find us, but that doesn’t mean that they actually use the knowledge we provide.”

Baby boomers in the lead

Instant mobility

Zijlstra feels that the next phase

When asked what he thinks mobility will look like in 30 years, he

of mobility will follow the

states that he thinks that “there will be a more defined dichotomy

developments of baby boomers

between the ‘I-want-it-now-the-way-I-want-it-and-I-can-aﬀord-it

in the next five years. This group

people’ and the people that have to conform to fixed business hours

consists of 4 million people

and locations.” This ad hoc mobility is a luxury that not everybody

whose age will get really high in

will be able to aﬀord, just like the self-driving car.

the coming years, meaning that

He also thinks that by 2050 all collective and semi-collective

many of them won’t be able (or

solutions (“low-hanging fruit,” as he calls it), such as buses, trams,

allowed) to drive anymore and

bicycles, mopeds, city cars, and other transportation systems will

he is curious as to “what this

be electric, but that “bigger stuﬀ”, such as trucks and planes will

will mean for our traﬃc and

pose a bigger challenge. It’s diﬃcult to oversee the bigger picture,

transportation systems”. From

because mobility is intertwined with society, the economy,

now on, this generation will

technology and the environment.

have to move around by foot, which will cause pedestrians to play a more central role in the government’ future plans. Additionally, this generation is very vocal, mostly digitally native (even though the diﬀerences between individuals are big) and usually has some money to spend. He also feels that the climate will have a place at the top of many lists, especially in the form of reducing emissions and climate adaptation. Reducing greenhouse gases will mainly revolve around technical solutions, such as electric cars and bikes, together with the digitization of mobility services and travel information.

KiM

Toon Zijlstra

One of the possibilities is that by 2050 Holland’s economic clusters will shift towards the NAP route (a bicycle route that runs between Bad Nieuweschans and Breda,approximately at the Normal Amsterdam Level). He immediately nuances his own words: “Visions for the future mostly say something about the present; about those things that concern us now."

Social solutions Although Zijlstra is not sure what kind of obstacles mobility will encounter en route to 2050, he noticed that many solutions are focused on replacing the energy source (fossil fuels vs. electricity) instead of mobility patterns. Besides, many solutions are presented that have to do with the digitalization of mobility. Zijlstra thinks that we need more still: “We have to move towards more social solutions and a restructuring of the economy and the logic that it’s based upon. We have completely adjusted ourselves, our lifestyle, the economy, and our society to instant mobility. A transition requires more than simply replacing a combustion engine with an electric motor,” he concludes.

“Visions for the future mostly say something about the present; about those things that

concern us now."”

The car predominates, now and in the future

Ronald de Jong ANWB

Ronald de Jong, Team Manager

At the moment, the ANWB is

Mobility & Traﬃc Safety, tells us

still formulating a vision for

that, besides being a roadside

2050, but De Jong himself has

assistant, the ANWB also is a

some interesting opinions and

travel agency and an insurance

ideas, based on this experience

company, and that they have 81

and background.

stores. The ANWB’s goal is to make sure “that people are

With its 4.7 million members,

carefree and having fun when

the ANWB (internationally

on the road,” says De Jong.

known as AAA) is a big player in the mobility landscape. Their

De Jong and his team are part

members represent a large part

of the Brand & Member

of the Dutch population, and the

department within the

ANWB often asks them for their

Association department (“by

opinion about what they need,

and for members”), and are

now and in the future. The

mainly involved with social

ANWB does a lot more,

projects and advocacy. De Jong

however, than just ask their

(proudly): “My team represents

members what they need and

the 4.7 million members that the

oﬀer them roadside assistance.

ANWB now has.”

3 lessons 2020 - Our challenge is twofold: how do we get people out of traﬃc during peak hours and how do we make better use of the network outside rush hour? 2025 - Car will only become cheaper and more sustainable in use due to electrification, so they will continue to dominate 2050 - Not much will change in how we move around, it just becomes more sustainable and has more options

ANWB

Ronald de Jong

We’re running out of time

Not just for motorists

For starters, De Jong feels that we should be “extremely happy”

De Jong feels that the

with our current mobility network when compared to the mobility

government should initiate

networks of surrounding countries. Of course, it also has its flaws.

finding a solution for the current

After all, before the corona crisis, we were all stuck in traﬃc,

mobility problem by creating a

whether it was in a car, on a train, or even on a bike. Being a part of

framework and directing the

the Mobility Alliance, the ANWB then concluded that “we’re running

developments. He also sees a

out of time” and that something had to happen now. De Jong thinks

role for the ANWB when it

that we have reached our limit; our current infrastructure doesn’t

comes to communication about

have any room for further growth and the daily peak hours (before

and oﬀering of alternatives. He

corona) got increasingly more crowded, hyper crowded even.

also notices that the ANWB’s

According to De Jong, the challenge is twofold: “On the one hand,

role has changed over the last

we have to try and get people out of peak traﬃc, and on the other

couple of years.

hand, we have to make better use of the network outside rush hour.

“

“Paying per trip should become the norm to make people more aware of the actual costs of a trip.” It’s all about optimization.” He doesn’t think that the MaaS pilots

“We are often labeled as

organized by the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management

asphalt lobbyists, just for

will oﬀer a solution because those are mostly focused on the private

motorists,” says De Jong.

car not being part of the trip and that’s something “that we don’t

“Nowadays, the ANWB is there

believe in at all,” De Jong states. He thinks that an and-and-solution

for all travelers, whether they

will work here in which we invest in infrastructure and go about it

travel by car, bike, sidewalk, or

smarter and by stimulating working from home/flexible hours within

public transportation.” In the

a framework that is set by the government.

future, the role of the ANWB will “remain mostly the same,” according to De Jong.

MaaS me crazy

on public spaces.

When we ask De Jong what he thinks will be the most

The increasing urbanization and the accompanying pressure

The fact that we will be able to achieve a better relationship

important development within

between infrastructure and vehicles through technology,

mobility in the next five years,

which allows us to optimally use the current network.

he mentions two: He does remark that he is “very curious as to whether by then society will be more inclined to let technology dictate or limit our behavior”. MaaS apps will become an important part of mobility but they’re also already doing that now, states De Jong: “I have been MaaS-ing myself crazy for years!” He thinks that by that time our biggest challenge will be the return trip because “who will guarantee that the way back will be as eﬀortless as the outward journey?” he wonders out loud.

ANWB

He mostly hopes that by that time, the way we travel will be optimized and that we will travel

Ronald de Jong

Travel time becomes work time

less, “that we will have a

He, therefore, thinks that our

generation that can’t imagine

mobility problem won’t be

that we used to go into the

solved by 2050. “I think that

oﬃce every day and were stuck

travel time will become work

in traﬃc for an hour and a half”.

time.” People will use their trip for a virtual meeting, for

Good, easy and reliable multimodal travel A little further into the future, in 2050 to be exact, De Jong thinks that we won’t travel substantially diﬀerently than we are doing now: “I don’t believe at all in drones and flying as a solution for personal mobility in the Netherlands.” What he does believe in is, that by that time, technology has allowed us to create flow in the journey and that multimodal travel will be “good, easy and reliable”. De Jong also doesn’t believe in the

The unbeatable car

example, and future parking

De Jong thinks that it’s mostly

De Jong thinks that it will

the government’s job to

unfortunately still be crowded in

facilitate the flexible

traﬃc and that space for new

transportation system which is

homes will still have to compete

necessary to bring about this

with space for infrastructure but

mobility transition: “They have

that we will experience it

to create the framework

diﬀerently, that we will see more

because policies are what

opportunities than limitations.

makes things possible.”

Finally, De Jong thinks that the

Additionally, De Jong thinks that

past best predicts the future:

paying per trip (use vs.

“What shocking things have

ownership) should become the

happened since 1990 in

norm to make people more

mobility? Surprisingly little, it

aware of the actual costs of a

just became a little safer, more

trip, and because of that will

sustainable and we have more

make better choices. Sharing

options.”

spaces will oﬀer more facilities.

cars is a logical next step, he feels. De Jong: “Electrification will make cars more sustainable and cheaper in upkeep and use, and I think that will make them unbeatable.”

Hyperloop. He thinks that in 30 years, the (electric/self-driving) car will still dominate the streets, even though there will also be a lot more “people movers”.

No pilots, no experiments, just do it

Tarik Fawzi Hely

Hely supplies various shared vehicles from its 20 Hely Hubs in ten cities and is an initiative of the NS (Dutch Railways). The NS wanted to see if and how

3 lessons 2020 If we oďŹ&#x20AC;er shared transportation, people will use it and the shift from ownership to use will develop even further

Shared transportation is

they could contribute to the

becoming an increasingly

infamous first and last mile and

normal part of mobility in the

how they could "play a role in

2025

Netherlands. Nowadays there

the value chain of mobility,"

are even shared cargo bikes!

says Fawzi. Although the NS is

Hely is a hub solution that oďŹ&#x20AC;ers

a major shareholder (together

We should stop experimenting, but just do it, and the government should invest (much) more in shared transportation

these cargo bikes, as well as

with PON), Hely is a self-

regular shared electric bicycles

contained and operating

and shared cars in six Dutch

company. Its goal is to make

cities. All integrated into one

sharing smarter, more fun, and

app. Tarik Fawzi is one of four

more sustainable.

people who has been involved with Hely since the beginning, as co-founder, he is responsible for setting up partnerships.

Based on his expertise in the field of shared transportation, Fawzi shares his vision on mobility and multimodal travel.

2050 The means of transportation that we will have in 30 years will be connected by IoT and have a major impact on spatial planning

Hely

Supply creates demand Fawzi notices a shift from ownership to use, although it’s still progressing very slowly and is still in a relatively early stage: “The world won’t change overnight,” he says. He sees that there are many national and international providers of shared

Tarik Fawzi

“[That] makes it increasingly easier to find, reserve, unlock and pay for a vehicle via your cell phone, which also makes it easier to use diﬀerent kinds of shared transportation.” Additionally, he thinks that supply creates demand: “Ten years ago, nobody was asking for an electric cargo bike, but now that they are available, people want them.” This will also happen for multimodality; if it’s oﬀered, people will use it.

New neighborhoods, new forms of transportation

vehicles. Fawzi thinks this is

If it were up to Fawzi, each new housing development project will be

because the amount of space -

outfitted with a Hely Hub, which will make it easier for residents to

mostly in cities - is rapidly

book diﬀerent types of mobility that suit their current needs through

decreasing and that

a single app. He did notice, however, that municipalities often would

governments are more

like to do “something with [mobility] hubs”, but aren’t really sure

concerned with reaching the

where to start and how to connect all the parties. And that’s exactly

climate goals and eﬃciently

the kind of thing that Hely excels at. Additionally, real estate parties

using public space. Therefore,

can be quite conservative and assume that residents want to have

cities have become very

their car parked in front of their homes. Hely was able to show them

restrictive when it comes to

that there’s a lot to gain from adding shared transportation into the

parking. And although this is

mix. Hely has an advisory role and Fawzi knows exactly what a hub

very inconvenient for car

should have, to meet the demands of the new neighborhood.

owners, it’s the ideal breeding

In the future, Fawzi thinks it could very well be that they will use the

ground for shared-transport

data generated by their vehicles to also give travel advice, but for

initiatives, such as Hely. Fawzi

that to happen, they first have to be able to create “a free float

states that technology is also a

system”, he explains.

factor:

“

“Crowded cities are the ideal breeding ground for shared-transport initiatives.”

Shared transportation becomes the norm

norm: “Partly because it’s being

are already setting up public

imposed by the municipalities

spaces in such a way that they

and developers, but also

are also suitable for other

Aside from his own dreams for

because there will hardly be any

vehicles in the long term. He

Hely, Fawzi also has some ideas

parking spaces.”

also thinks that it will be much

about future mobility in general.

easier then because of Internet

Mobility connected through IoT

of Things (IoT) to have an

will oﬀer diﬀerent

When asked how he thinks

app on your mobile phone. "If

multimodalities. “This will foster

transportation and mobility will

we still have those," he laughs,

a real change,” he predicts. He

look like in 30 years, he predicts

"maybe apps will be hopelessly

also thinks that public and

that “we will have many diﬀerent

outdated by then." He thinks

shared transportation will be a

types of vehicles”, such as

that by 2050 everything will be

lot more integrated in the next

electric drones. “This will have a

equipped with IoT: “By that

five years. In new housing

huge impact on the spatial

time, we will have 8G, the

developments, shared

designs of cities,” he says.

processing power of chips will

transportation will become the

According to him, municipalities

double, while the price

He thinks, for example, that in five years, there will be several big international providers that

electric or self-driving car appear at your door using an

Hely

Tarik Fawzi

will decrease and [that means]

Finally, Fawzi feels that the

The only obstacle could be our

that refrigerators, coﬀee cups,

government should invest a

mentality. Take, for instance, our

clothes, and books will all [...] be

larger percentage of the money

mentality towards working from

able to communicate with each

they are now spending on

home. Fawzi was already

other, without human

public transportation on shared

working like this 20 years ago

interference. The same goes for

transportation: “If you spend

and only now - with corona - it’s

vehicles.”

1% of the money that is spent

gaining a foothold: “This will

on public transportation on

foster a big change and that’s

Stop launching pilots and experimenting

shared transportation, you can

not just because of the

change the world. Put your

technological possibilities, but

money where your mouth is! Or

also because of

And who will be responsible for

leave it to the market.”

a change in mentality,” he

this mobility transition? Fawzi calls it “obvious”, but he thinks that it’s society as a whole, everyone in the value chain. He

concludes.

Not technology, but mentality is the problem

also thinks that not speaking of

We will no longer have mobility

pilots and experiments will also

problems in 2050. By then, with

help: “We have to stop using the

all the technological

word experiment. This doesn’t

developments and the ever-

give it enough value and gives

increasing supply of

the impression of temporality,

alternatives, “there’s really no

which makes it seem like you

reason to still have mobility

can just quit or give up.”

problems”.

“If you spend 1% of the money that is spent on public transportation on shared transportation, you can change the world.” 14

Customization is key Tania Rademaker 9292 With 1 billion travel recommendations in 2019, 9292 (part of the REISinformatiegroep - Travel Information Group) isn’t just a handy app, but also a serious player in the field of public transportation and - if we are to believe social media even a verb. Tania Rademaker is 9292’s Sales & Business Manager, but is also the point of contact for the NDOV (Nationale Databank Openbaar Vervoer National Database Public Transportation) Loket, stakeholder transportation providers and has also been involved with MaaS since about a year and a half. Because she wears so many

3 lessons 2020 Dutch public transport is faced with both a lack of space and vacancy

hats and has had diﬀerent roles within the REISinformatiegroep,

2025

she has some interesting views

A new way of life requires trust and cooperation

and opinions about transportation and mobility.

Opinions and customization First, we would like to know how she feels about our current mobility network in the Netherlands. Rademaker: “Logically, I view our mobility network from a public-

2050

transportation perspective, and

Vehicles powered by natural resources are the future

then you notice that we don’t have enough room.”

9292

During rush hour, the Dutch public transport is very full, but in oﬀ-peak hours there are also lines that almost nobody uses. Rademaker feels that there isn’t one solution that will suit everyone. “We have 17 million people and 17 million opinions to deal with, how do you handle that?” she wonders out loud. According to her, the crux lies mostly in whether or not the traveler is prepared to adopt all the technological developments in the sector. This is both a behavioral and a logistical puzzle, because “you want to change behavior [...] and at the same time need big investments for large-scale projects,” states Rademaker.

9292 as a travel buddy

ver since its inception 25

years ago, 9292 has tried to keep up with societal and technological developments as much as possible. They, for example, recently launched their new and improved app, that’s not only customizable in terms of functionality but that the more you use it the more it adapts to you, it’s much more intuitive.

Tania Rademaker

mopeds, and scooters, she laughs: “That is also one of the hats that I wear. I’m also the point of contact for other types of transport. I am now busy with adding new bike providers. Later, I would also like to add shared cars, P&R, and flexible public transportation.” When discussing personalization, you also have to talk about privacy. 9292 very strictly adheres to privacy legislation.

Another new feature is that it now has a couple of new modalities added to the mix, such as a(n) (owned, OV-, or HTM-) bicycle. When we ask her if we can soon expect other rental bikes,

“

“The crux lies mostly in whether or not the traveler is prepared to adopt all the technological developments.”

And because they do so, it allows them to experiment with the possibilities when people do permit the use of their travel data. Rademaker: “We have started a partnership with Warner Music. We oﬀer playlists that suit [the environment] of your trip.” This way, 9292 will become so much more than just another app, it becomes a real travel buddy.

Trust and cooperation Like many of the people we talked to for this study, Rademaker finds it hard to predict what the next five years have in store for us when it comes to mobility: “Five years is such a short time!” [...] Whatever comes will have to do with living diﬀerently, it will be an all-encompassing thing,” she thinks. After giving it some more thought, she comes to the conclusion that digitally, a lot is possible and that corona has made us see that working from home and when it suits you best is actually possible: “If we in the sector are able to find a mode of trust and cooperation, we will be able to create a new way of life in the coming five years.” She also thinks that we won’t all of a sudden work “super eﬃciently” and remotely, but awareness will be created and more customization will be added.

The Jetsons And in 30 years? Like many of her contemporaries, Rademaker grew up with The Jetsons, a cartoon about a family that lived in the future. She thinks it would be very cool if our day-to-day life would look like that in 30 years.

Tania Rademaker

We’re in this together

9292

She would like to have a “little

When asked how we are supposed to achieve this and who is

bubble” around that would oﬀer

responsible, Rademaker’s answer is short and sweet: “Everyone, of

to buy a certain product after

course!” She is convinced that it won’t work if you don’t address

she has looked at it for the

each generation, everybody has to participate. She hopes that 9292

umpteenth time. Rademaker

can add to this by unconsciously and pleasantly nudging the

also hopes that “the world is still

traveler towards new ways of travel, but is under no illusion that we

there” by then and that we’re

won’t have any more mobility problems in 2050. “The world is big

taking good care of it, but

and everyone has their own dynamic, so let’s just say that I hope

doesn’t think we will do so by

that we in the Netherlands have found a way to balance things out,”

traveling electrically: “I think that

she concludes.

by that time, we will be using natural sources. Nothing electric. Wind and water!” She doesn’t really believe in the selfdriving car, because “if we all use it, that will create traﬃc jams again”. Rademaker thinks that we’ll have a combination of diﬀerent modalities, but that there will never be a one-sizefits-all solution that comes together in a single MaaS app.

Learning about the future through the MaaS program

Eric Mink Ministry of Infrastructure & Water Management For this study, we spoke with many diﬀerent commercial parties, but it’s of course also fascinating to look at this issue through the eyes of the government. Therefore, we spoke with Eric Mink, Program Manager MaaS with the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management.

At the request of both public and private parties, the ministry started addressing the MaaS issue about three and a half years ago. The question of the different governments and corporate parties was what their role should be in this landscape. That’s why, last year, they launched a program, which consisted of seven nationwide MaaS pilots. The goal of this program is to create an ecosystem in which every app offers as many different

They have asked diﬀerent regions to create specific policy goals,

transportation options as

based on those pillars. The overarching goal of these principles is to

possible and to learn how this

find out “if and how people will travel diﬀerently,

impacts traveler behavior. According to Mink, the market and the governments “took a leap of faith together” and defined a number of principles about sharing data, working together, the use of the mutual standards, and learning together.

3 lessons 2020 - Data-based solution will become more important 2025 - The trend from owned, to use-based mobility will increase and apps will make it easier 2050 - Congestion can be resolved by deploying new mobilities and behavioral changes, possibly with a little push from the government

Ministry of Infrastructure & Water Management

Eric Mink

smartly and more sustainably

He doesn’t believe, however,

The Ministry of I&WM is testing

when they have more options,”

that simply building more

this with MaaS, among other

says Mink.

infrastructure is the answer: “We

things, and will cause quite the

have to look at smarter

cultural change if successful,

Based on these principles and

measures [...] and that means

Mink predicts.

with this research question in

that we, the ministry, but also

the back of his mind, Mink

the government and the sector,

shares his vision on our current

have to start basing our work on

and future mobility in the

data, and traveler behavior, and

Netherlands.

not just on infrastructure. It’s all

The Ministry of I&WM also

about the combination.”

emphasizes battling congestion

Additionally, we should prioritize

through infrastructure, because

other themes, such as

you have to prove that a

sustainability, transportation

solution leads to a certain result:

poverty, cross-border public

“You have to be able to quantify

transportation, and traﬃc

the impact of solutions. That is

congestion over growth.

much easier for traditional

Smarter measures Our first question is about how Mink feels about current mobility in the Netherlands. Mink: “Before the corona crisis, we were stuck, according to the transportation forecast.” He thinks that merely adding more infrastructure won’t be suﬃcient to handle the predicted

New solutions to old problems

solutions, such as a new road that battles congestion than for the introduction of a new behavioral measure.”

economic growth.

“

He thinks that the government should have the guts to come up with new solutions for old problems and fortunately notices a new trend. For example, this cabinet opted for a “shift from an infrastructure fund to a mobility fund,” says Mink.

“We, the ministry, have to start basing our work on data, and traveler behavior.”

From ownership to use Mink thinks that in the next five years, the most important development when it comes to mobility will be the shift from ownership to use: “Nobody can predict the future, but people [...] just want to be transported properly in a way that suits them and care less and less about owning a car or bike,” he states. He therefore thinks that in the next couple of years the use of shared mobility, and ridesharing concepts will increase greatly. Additionally, he believes that there will be diﬀerent MaaS apps that will adjust your travel advice according to your day planner, for example, and that will provide insight into other modes of transportation, and the impact and costs thereof, which will change our behavior. From the aggregated app data could be deduced how

travelers would like to be stimulated in the case of a behavioral change. Mink hopes to gain new policy insights from new data in areas such as quality of life, sustainability, fighting traﬃc jams, social inclusion and accessibility of regions. He thinks that “MaaS service providers, transportation providers, and governments need to work together and that it’s paramount for a level playing field to introduce “standardization, coordination and rules” into the system. And that a business model will emerge from, that matches both public and private goals, many entrepreneurs are already very passionate about this.

Somewhere between video conferencing and teleportation When we ask him what he thinks mobility will look like in 30 years, he states that the possibilities are almost endless. He thinks that the four scenarios of the Planbureau voor Leefomgeving (Planning Agency for Living Environment) are “a nice representation of what could happen, both in a positive and negative sense”. Also, he thinks that in 30 years, ownership will have become less important, that there will be many new forms of transportation - “maybe even forms of mobility that we can’t even imagine” - but that we will be completely taken care of during a trip.

Ministry of Infrastructure & Water Management

Eric Mink

Because by that time, we will exclusively drive and fly Hyperloop, we have reached the goals of the Climate Accord. He also daydreams about new forms of mobility and thinks they can vary from “simply video conferencing” to the hoverboard of Back to the Future and from Virtual Reality to teleportation. Either way, they will be initiated by creative disruptions caused by trailblazing innovation.

Some goodwill

electrically, and maybe even per

Mink thinks that it’s “certainly possible” that our congestion problems will be solved by 2050. He does feel, however, that we first have to figure out how to break through people’s stubborn herd behavior, but thinks that with “some goodwill” it’s completely possible. The MaaS pilots that will (hopefully) start soon will provide a solution, they will provide the extra insights and proof that are needed to measure behavior and find methods to for instance better spread peak traffic. Besides, corona gave us a wake-up call. “People have now seen that things can also be different,” according to Mink, “the question now is to what extent we are prepared to keep doing things differently,” he continues. “Maybe the government also has to stimulate this, it won’t happen automatically,” he concludes.

Joost van der Made NS Within the NS (Dutch Railways), Joost van der Made is the mobility strategist. In this role, he is mostly concerned with how the NS can continue to contribute to accesibility of the Netherlands, now and in the future. Through extensive research, his co-workers discovered that thereâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s a discrepancy between how the customer feels and what actually happens: â&#x20AC;&#x153;When you ask them what they want, they

We need a Delta plan for mobility

say that they want the trains to run on time and that they have a seat, but when you look at what they really want, they want appreciation, control, and autonomy,â&#x20AC;? he says. At the moment, Van der Made is

3 lessons 2020 - The mobility problem can only be solved if several parties join forces 2025 - Technology and digital components play a major role but societal and behavioral changes will take the lead

mostly concerned with the question about what the IT landscape of the future should look like to realize his vision. He, therefore, has some interesting ideas about the future of

2050 - In the future, the emphasis will be not be on multimodality of travel but on the sustainability of it

mobility.

Joost van der Made

“

“When negotiating the terms of a new job, public transportation and shared transportation should have become so appealing that you ask for a mobility card instead of a lease car.”

Contours Future Image Public Transportation 2040 As far as the future is concerned, Van der Made sees a couple of

Director of the journey of the future

challenges for the Netherlands’ mobility network. According to him,

Of course, Van der Made also

the four most prominent problems in public transportation are best described in the government-issued report Contouren Toekomstbeeld OV 2040 (Contours Future Image Public Transportation 2040):

1. Public transport capacity should increase by 40%

sees a prominent role for the Dutch Railways, “but as a director and not as CEO,” he says. He would like to collaborate on a seam-less mobility network with other

2. Public transport must become fully sustainable

parties. Even though (before the

3. Customer satisfaction rating must be an 8

take 1,2 million rides every day,

4. Seamless mobility network

corona crisis) we collectively the railway’s share in the number of traveler miles is still too small. Van der Made would

The government has allocated a significant part of the responsibility

therefore like the NS app to

to the Dutch Railways in this plan, but according to Van der Made,

oﬀer more personalized travel

there are a lot more stakeholders that can (and should) influence

guidance, which, for example,

these developments. Van der Made would also like to include major

makes it easier to find available

cities, as well as the consumer: “When negotiating the terms of a

parking spaces for the transition

new job, public transportation and shared transportation should

from train to car or to find out

have become so appealing that you ask for a mobility card instead

how you can best reach your

of a lease car.”

final destination from the train station. Digital is a crucial part of this. 24

More flexibility, less crowded In the near future, technology is a major player, but not the star of the show: “We won’t be doing things just because they’re technically possible,” he states. He thinks that we as a society will be allowing more flexibility in working hours under the influence of the corona crisis and that technology will be an important part of (better) spreading peak traﬃc. He also mentions the role of new modalities, such as an initiative that he feels didn’t get the attention it deserved; the urban lightweight electric vehicles, those mopeds on three wheels. Van der Made: “They oﬀer the safety of a car in a motor-sized package, which makes them the ideal mode of transportation to and from the train station.”

Technology & legislation When we ask him about how he thinks we will be moving around in 2050, Van der Made states that he doesn’t think that it will be by personal drone copter, people drone, or Hyperloop. He thinks that we will travel less, under the influence of technology, but that when we do travel, we demand higher quality and a better travel experience. He hopes that by then we also have the peak traﬃc situations under control, but also sees a major role for municipalities, who he thinks can stimulate the demand for mobility, giving other, more sustainable forms of transportation a chance. He also thinks that by then car- and bike sharing will be completely integrated into society.

Delta plan for mobility In order for all of this to become a success, Van der Made thinks that a kind of Delta plan could oﬀer a solution to our mobility problems. That the government should decide which problems should be tackled first, so that companies can showcase what they have in store to solve those specific problems. Also, he thinks that many organizations will start to work together: “We’re already seeing companies seeking each other out because they know that they’re merely a link in the value chain and everyone is looking for partners that have the knowledge and the expertise to take the next step in MaaS.”

Joost van der Made

Sustainable travel becomes the norm Will mobility problems continue to exist with all these developments? Van der Made thinks that “there are a lot of great solutions out there that will carry us a large part of the way.” Many trend watchers are predicting that in the future, we will all travel multimodally, but Van der Made thinks that the emphasis will be on sustainable travel. Aside from this, he is convinced that we are “all systems go” when it comes to making that transition. “Of course, it’s a challenge and we will probably fall on our faces many times, but I think that we have made tremendous progress [by 2050],” he concludes.

“Companies are seeking each other out to take the next step in MaaS.”

The right transportation at the right time

Martijn Lammers Lightyear Multiple parties are already working on the future of mobility and defining how we will move around in the next couple of decades. One of these parties is Lightyear. Next year, they will be launching the first solar-powered passenger car ever: the Lightyear One. The idea for Lightyear One came from the campus of the Eindhoven University of Technology. Here, the same crew that won the 2013 World Solar Challenge, decided after graduating that they wanted to start a company that would contribute to a better world. Funnily enough, they wouldnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t describe Lightyear as a car brand:

3 lessons 2020 - We are focusing too much on a single solution, while a combination of solutions would work much better 2025 - Paying per mile will ensure that people start using cars in the same way as micro mobilities 2050 - All mobility will be sustainable, sustainability will become cheaper, and consumers will demand it

Lightyear

Martijn Lammers

Changing business model

“Our goal is not to make cars,

should make sure there’s a

but to create mobility. That

“level playing field” that comes

would make us more of a

with clear rules for which

mobility company than a car

transparency is crucial, so that

Lightyear contributes to this by

brand,” says Martijn Lammers,

one company or type of

making sustainable driving more

Lightyear’s Chief Strategy.

transportation isn’t favored over

accessible. Now, consumers

another. People have to be

often tend to think that electric

Because his role is very future-

honest about what’s the most

driving, for example, is

oriented and because he has a

sustainable way of distributing

expensive and impractical, and

personal interest in sustainable

that transportation, and then

Lammers would like to show

mobility, Lammers made an

consumers will automatically

people that sustainable driving

interesting contribution to our

choose the best option.

mobility project.

Monoculture of solutions Just like with our other guests, the first thing we want to know of Lammers is what he feels is our biggest mobility challenge right now. According to him, we’re looking for one, single solution - “a monoculture of solutions” - while he believes in a combination of “many solutions that connect really well together”. Either way, he doesn’t think that the problem is the number of diﬀerent mobilities, the cost or the pressure on certain types of transportation. It’s more about the balance of the distribution among these mobilities. He feels that “someone - maybe policy makers”

is equally carefree as driving using fossil fuels, or, as he says: “Making the product so good that it naturally becomes the best way to move around.” On the other hand, he also believes that one sustainable company does not make a sustainable society. That’s why Lightyear feels that it’s paramount their business model fits in with their own ideas about sustainability and other sustainable initiatives.

The car in the right place As for the near future, Lammers thinks that if you put the car in the right place in the mobility chain, it becomes available to people who normally can’t or won’t use a car and that this will automatically generate a price point per mile that you could never achieve when owning a car. Over the next five years, he also sees a place for this pay-per-mile model in the development of micro mobilities, such as the OV-fiets (public transportation bike) and the shared scooters that he himself really likes. Additionally, he is curious as to how we will organize medium to long-distance trips: “[Will we] divide traﬃc over railways, planes, and cars or will we [make] combinations: use a plane for the outward journey and the car or train for the way back?” he wonders.

“

“One sustainable company doesn’t make a sustainable society, all initiatives should be connected.” Because only then you can

Lightyear could provide a possible solution in this. Their vision is to

achieve real sustainability. They

make an ‘open-source’ product and make it available to the public,

are now looking into options to

so MaaS apps can integrate Lightyear with other mobilities.

shift their future business model

Lightyear “won’t be the next Uber, but the perfect car for Uber,”

from earning per product sold to

according to Lammers.

earning per mile driven. Lammers: “[...] then you don’t make a car so that people need to buy a new one every five years, but a car that people can drive as much as possible.”

Lightyear

Martijn Lammers

Not shorter but farther A little farther down the road - 30 years to be exact - Lammers thinks that with every trip, we will look at what best fits our needs at that time and that we will use multiple modes of transportation that will be the same in each city, making them easy to use. He doesn’t think that the number of trips will increase or decrease, but that we will, for example by Hyperloop, travel farther in the same amount of time: “You will start to travel farther because it becomes faster and more eﬃcient but you will still spend about an hour and a half each day moving around,” states Lammers.

Everything will become more sustainable Lammers thinks that everything - not just cars - will become more sustainable in the future and that consumers will also demand this as being sustainable becomes more aﬀordable. He’s not worried about it becoming even busier on the roads: “This brings me back to the point that it would be nice if people were to use the right transportation at the right time.”

New times come with new challenges Although Lammers is very optimistic about the future, he doesn’t think our mobility issues will vanish completely: “I think that mobility will always come with challenges,” he laughs. Therefore, he doesn’t believe in the perfect solution. “Everything will continue to grow and change, including the consumers’ wishes, which will in turn change the mobility landscape as a whole,” he says. That’s why Lightyear, like so many other initiatives, places the user experience at the top of their list and includes their customers in their design process. “And because of this [our product] will continue to get better. This is something I really believe in, and has been our starting point,” he concludes.

Mobility happiness: The social side of mobility Mobility works best when it’s a joint eﬀort by private, commercial, and public parties. One of these organizations in which all these parties come together and is concerned with

Hans Stevens & Stephanie Hughes

mobility management is De Verkeersonderneming (The Traﬃc Company). De

De Verkeersonderneming

Verkeersonderneming is a partnership between the municipality of Rotterdam, the

Hans Stevens is a Program Manager. Hughes and Stevens are

Metropolitan Region The Hague,

mainly concerned with the question: “How can mobility add to the

the Ministry of Infrastructure and

quality of life?” They like to focus on the “human side of mobility”

Water Management,

and call that “mobility happiness”.

Rijkswaterstaat, and the Harbor of Rotterdam.

In a remote duo interview, Hughes and Stevens talk to us about their vision on mobility, now and in the future.

At first, De Verkeersonderneming was mainly focused on battling congestion, but they now have added three more dimensions to the mix: the climate, public space, and inclusivity. Stephanie Hughes is

3 lessons 2020 The voice of the traveler is missing in the discussion about mobility

2025 In the coming years, we need to start thinking about the ‘why’ behind technological developments

responsible for Architecture & Urban Planning with De

2050

Verkeersonderneming.

In healthy mobility, happiness, health and eﬃciency go hand in hand

De Verkeersonderneming

Hans Stevens & Stephanie Hughes

The voice of the traveler

Thorn in the side

Hughes and Stevens don’t have any remarks when it comes to our

According to Stevens, De

mobility network, but they do feel that discussions about mobility

Verkeersonderneming has a

are very focused on the long term and infrastructure. They feel that

dual role within the realm of

the voice of the traveler is often missing in these discussions.

mobility. On the one hand, he

Stevens: “We try to change that by putting the traveler at the top of

feels that De

our list.” Hughes adds: I feel that we shouldn’t just focus on adding

Verkeersonderneming is a

the voice of the travelers to these discussions, but also the voice of

representative of the

the people that aren’t using public transportation at all right now,

government. That they should

because the system doesn’t meet their wishes, needs or personal

take the initiative in thinking

circumstances.” Hughes and Stevens want - in contrast to most of

about mobility by introducing

their peers in mobility land - to focus on the now. Based on the four

several mobility projects and

dimensions mentioned in the intro, they would like to start the

pilots, and work together with

mobility transition now with the help of pilots. Stevens: “We can do

other parties and citizens to

this by introducing new and innovative mobility concepts, but also,

move them further along. On the

for example, through temporary new street layouts, so that people

other side, he views De

can get used to them first.” The responsibility for this mobility

Verkeersonderneming as a

transition is in the hands of the government, according to Stevens,

“thorn in the side” of the

but only to start it up. According to him, the execution - possibly

establishment. Stevens: “It’s our

together with the government - should be in the hands of market

job to say that things have to

parties, social organizations, employers, etc., and must be directed

change nów, that we have to

at “the greatest possible social diﬀusion, or, in other words, that as

invest in healthy mobility nów

many people as possible (can) change their behavior”.

and that it’s maybe time to

“

“Things have to change nów, we have to invest in

healthy mobility nów.”

replace the same people that

“The developments should

“To achieve that balance, we

have been working on the same

focus more on mobility

have to start focusing on the

investment funds for the past 20

happiness and how mobility can

social side of mobility now. I

or 30 years with young people

add to the quality of life and

think that that’s necessary too,

that have a fresh perspective.”

health of people. Mobility has a

especially when you look at the

That’s why the Ministry of

cultural, social, and

corona crisis because if we

Infrastructure and Water

economic dimension.”

don’t know how to create

Management’s MaaS pilots

Stevens adds: “The biggest

healthy mobility, we soon won’t

don’t really sit well with him

challenge of the next five years

have any mobility.”

either. He feels that these pilots

is to scale up projects, pilots

Stevens doesn’t really know

also emphasize the system’s

and initiatives that are going

what to expect, but “maybe the

perspective instead of the

well. We can’t do that by

focus will shift from more, more,

human aspect. Hughes feels

ourselves. We have to invest in

more mobility to less, less, less

that De Verkeersonderneming

healthy mobility together.”

physical mobility, leaving the

mostly plays the role of enabler and facilitator “in the sense that we identify problems, bring diﬀerent parties together and

digital highway the only mobility

The social side of mobility

take the lead [in starting up new

When we ask them about their

mobility concepts],” she states.

vision for mobility in 2050,

The why behind technological developments Hughes feels that it’s extremely important that in the next five years, we start focusing on further structuring technology and thinking about the why behind technological developments:

factor that matters.”

Investing in healthy mobility

Hughes expects (hopes) that

Hughes and Stevens both agree

we’ll have a complementary

that investing in healthy mobility

system in which happiness,

is an important part of the

health, and eﬃciency go hand in

impending mobility transition’s

hand. Hughes:

success. According to Stevens, this means that we, for example, should also invest in lines that are no longer profitable but do add to the quality of life by oﬀering people an opportunity to participate in society.

Hans Stevens & Stephanie Hughes

Mobility starts at the kitchen table

De Verkeersonderneming

They donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t foresee a real mobility problem in 2050 but do mention that, by that time, mobility will start at the kitchen table and only ends when you have reached your final destination. Last, but not least, they both feel that itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s paramount that people with vital jobs and that serve society should be fully unburdened when it comes to mobility; no costs, no waiting, access to parking, a seat on the bus/train/ metro, etc.. Then, mobility would be really healthy.

Wouter de Bruijne ParkBee 3 lessons 2020 - One overarching organization should take the lead in the next phase of mobility

Data as a prerequisite for a seamless mobility experience Despite the major pressure on street parking in Dutch cities, parking

2025 - To create mobility flow we need to share and link data 2050 - To keep pace with the impending population growth, we must make major infrastructure investments now

spaces in parking garages often remain unused. A damn shame,

Mobility flow

according to the ParkBee team. ParkBee uses integrated

De Bruijne feels that we have

technology to conquer the parking garage market. The idea behind

“many wonderful

ParkBee is to combat vacancy in parking garages by optimizing the

developments” in the

use of unused spaces. Consider, for example, the corporate parking

Netherlands that are growing

garages near the Amsterdam Arena that are used by business

fast, such as Swapfiets, Urbee

people during the day and are empty at night. ParkBee makes it

and MyWheels. Both interesting

possible to oﬀer this space to soccer supporters during a game.

and problematic, is that this all

Wouter de Bruijne is ParkBee’s Commercial Director and is mainly

consists of stand-alone

concerned with the customer side of the company, initiating

initiatives and that there’s no

partnerships and the development of nifty parking technology,

mobility flow: “Everyone simply

because, as he says: “we can combat vacancy by digitizing”.

oﬀers their part and that’s it,”

From both his parking expertise and his personal interest in optimal use of resources, De Bruijne has a specific view on mobility in the Netherlands.

according to De Bruijne. He thinks that the solution for this problem lies in the sharing of data: “Parties have to start sharing data in the same way so that all initiatives can come together on location and we can further integrate the mobility oﬀer.

Parkbee

I think that that’s necessary to change mobility.” Additionally, many parties take the vehicle as the starting point and not the trip, the destination, or the personal preferences of the traveler. He thinks that an overarching MaaS app will provide the solution. De Bruijne thinks that the responsibility for such a solution lies in the clustering of companies, but he also sees a facilitating role for the government.

Wouter de Bruijne

Enabler of MaaS ParkBee also plays a role in this, states De Bruijne: “We’re an enabler of MaaS.” Due to the large network of locations, with more than 60 parking locations in Amsterdam, and the fully digital approach, ParkBee can (almost always) offer a location that is close to the user's destination and where the different forms of mobility come together. For example, ParkBee has partnerships with several bike rental providers and MaaS apps, and is negotiating with a couple of car-sharing providers, as well. They would like to offer their services near public transportation hubs, but the municipalities won’t give them the required parking spaces. Here, ParkBee’s parking garages could provide a solution. Additionally, De Bruijne thinks that ParkBee can also add to the further electrification of our transportation by providing charging options in their garages. “We were recently approached by Tesla to see how they could offer Tesla drivers more charging stations, and use the network of ParkBee locations for this, which shows that ParkBee is on to something!”

Electrification

way to Groningen for an

their route is completely

appointment. I also wonder if

planned out and that it connects

our public transportation use

diﬀerent modalities. “We’re lazy,

will change permanently, and

you have to make it easy,” he

something that ParkBee

how video conferencing will

laughs. He hopes that by that

concerns itself with, De Bruijne

influence our business traﬃc.”

time the parameters of the trip

doesn’t think that we will all be

He’s also very curious about

will also be determined by the

driving electrically in the next

how MaaS will be adopted. It’s

amount of carbon dioxide or

five years: “The trend of

still hard to estimate this now

nitrogen it generates.

electrical driving will certainly

because there’s still a lot of

continue. Amsterdam, for

individual apps. De Bruijne

example, has the ambition to

thinks that a large platform like

ban all fossil fuel cars by 2030.

Google will be able to play an

However, it will take a while for

important role in this.

lthough electrification is

everybody to be able to aﬀord an electric car, and for all other cars to be replaced. Providing the right infrastructure is an important part of making this transition a reality.” He is very curious about the influence that corona will have on the way we move around in five years: “Of course, we will continue to travel, but will maybe think twice again before driving all the

Lazy “In 30 years, everything could be different,” says De Bruijne. He hopes that our traffic will be much more sustainable by then, and thinks that MaaS will be widespread, because people will discover how nice it is when they don’t have to check four different apps for one trip, that

“

“We should stimulate the users to make smart choices. The government should make sustainable travel cheaper and nonsustainable modalities more expensive.”

Parkbee

Wouter de Bruijne

In addition, he feels that by then, all cars should be using renewable energy, and that long distances should be traveled by self-driving car. He’s not sure if this will also become the standard in urban areas, because of the complex logistics that most cities have to deal with.

Sharing data To facilitate all this, De Bruijne thinks that it’s paramount that transportation providers make the journey as seamless as possible for the traveler, that they stimulate the users to make smart choices, and that the government should make sustainable travel cheaper and non-sustainable modalities more expensive. According to De Bruijne, the first step in this process is connecting and sharing of data. The problem with this is that if you do that, you’re also sharing your customers’ data and giving away information to your competitors. That’s why one overarching party, whether that’s Google, a cluster of companies, or the government, should take the lead without hurting individual business cases.

Large-scale alternatives When asked whether we’ll have any mobility problems at all by 2050, De Bruijne wholeheartedly replies: “Yes!” He thinks that we’re not making the large infrastructural changes that are needed right now that are necessary to deal with the increasing number of citizens we will have in 30 years. He sees solutions in, for example, the Hyperloop as an alternative to the airplane, but currently, we don’t have the budget for that. That’s why he feels that we need an app to change our behavior because we won’t do it on our own accord. “We just want to move around and travel, I don’t think that we will ever be able to [completely] make this virtual,” he concludes.

Mobility is behavior

poverty “when the mobility

people that don’t because they

system doesn’t suﬃciently meet

can’t or won’t, can’t aﬀord it or

the needs of people and thus

aren’t digitally capable.” He

causes them to not fully

therefore believes that at the

participate in society,” says

moment, many of the

Niek Verlaan is Advisor Behavior

Verlaan. He also feels that we

technological developments are

within the Mobility department

don’t give it the attention it

only directed at the happy few

of the Municipality of Utrecht.

deserves: “We’re mostly taking

and hopes that mobility will

He feels that transportation

the facts and figures into

become more accessible to

poverty is one of the most

account of people that are

more people in the future. “This

underestimated mobility

already using the mobility

is one of our main themes

problems in the Netherlands.

systems and forget to include

[within the municipality]: mobility

We speak of transportation

the facts and figures of the

for everyone.”

Niek Verlaan Gemeente Utrecht

3 lessons 2020 - More investments should be made in alternatives to cars 2025 - Social and physical surroundings influence behavior 2050 - A more accessible mobility system has reduced the socio-economic dichotomy

Because he looks at mobility through his behavioral expertise goggles, he has some very interesting ideas and insights on this subject.

Gemeente Utrecht

Niek Verlaan

More asphalt leads to more cars

sees a segue to behavior here.

residents of Utrecht will rise

He thinks that more asphalt will

from 360,000 to 400,000 in the

lead to more cars and wonders

next five years and this will all

Although Verlaan identifies

if that is desirable: “With this,

take place on the same acreage.

transportation poverty as our

you facilitate people choosing

This is why the city is looking for

most underestimated problem,

their cars,” he states. “And even

space-eﬃcient ways for mobility

he is quick to say that it’s not

though you should always be

and cars are not exactly space-

that bad compared to the US or

able to choose your car, in a

eﬃcient. The starting point of

the UK. After all, we ride our

small country like the

the development of the new

bikes a lot, many of the facilities

Netherlands it’s better to

Merwede district is that it’s

are within biking distance and

facilitate more space-eﬃcient

completely car-free, giving

our biking infrastructure is really

modalities, such as walking,

“

“The municipality can contribute by introducing car-light streets and neighborhoods.”

good. And yet, at the same

public transportation and

pedestrians and cyclists more

time, this strength is our

biking.”

room. “Parking is remote,

weakness, according to Verlaan:

making walking and cycling the

Car-light streets and neighborhoods

norm here. And because both

relatively on time. This helps to

The municipality can contribute

car ownership in this district is

stimulate alternatives for cars

by introducing car-light streets

likely to become very low,”

[...] but when you look at the

and neighborhoods, like

Verlaan predicts.

number of investments, cars

Utrecht’s newest neighborhood

prevail over bikes. I would like

Merwede, for example. Verlaan

that balance to shift.” He also

explains that the number of

“Compared to other countries, our biking facilities are relatively good and the trains run

the social and the physical environment influence behavior,

A new age comes with new problems

Corona as a test case

Not prohibiting, but not

step is on the road to this

stimulating car ownership or use is something that we will start to see more and more in the near future, according to Verlaan. What more the future holds, he finds harder to predict, but he does express a wish that comes from his behavioral expertise: “That in the coming years, we look more at how the environment influences behavior.” When we ask him about what mobility will be like in 30 years, he indicates that he is convinced that mobility problems and issues will continue to exist, but they will be diﬀerent from the ones we are experiencing now and probably also diﬀerent from what we’re imagining now: "Perhaps in the future, we won’t be moving around physically but virtually, as is happening right now with working from home. In that sense, our future mobility problems could consist of a low internet connection.

When we ask him what the first mobility transition in which behavior is key, he chuckles: “We’re already at step 20!” He feels that we have a lot of experience with all sorts of

behavioral projects and there are a lot of analyses taking place. And while certainly acknowledges the seriousness of the corona crisis, he also sees a unique opportunity: “From a mobility standpoint, this is a huge opportunity to gain insights about working from home.

Gemeente Utrecht

People are forced to work from home, we would have never been able to create this experience through a campaign! We’re now learning that working from home is very doable.” Of course, he also sees obstacles: “There are 100,000 reasons for not doing something. Everyone is diﬀerent, everyone has a diﬀerent point of view, so

Niek Verlaan

Mobility as a connecting factor Verlaan hopes that by 2050, behavioral insights have gained a fully fledged place within mobility, and that we have solved transportation poverty by then. He thinks that mobility can reduce the social-economic dichotomy in society: “I think that the problems, as well as the dichotomy, will continue to exist, but I hope that it will grow smaller and that mobility becomes so cheap and eﬃcient that it will be accessible for everybody. Mobility may seem obvious but it’s an important part of participating in society. It’s impact is greater than you think,” he concludes.

everybody can experience diﬀerent obstacles and/or have diﬀerent motivations for his/her behavior.”

“In the coming years, we will look more at how the environment influences

behavior.”

4242

Suzanne Hiemstra - van Mastrigt TU Delft

3 lessons 2020 - (During rush hour) itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s too busy in the cities and not crowded enough in the rural areas

2025 - There will be a shift towards multimodal travel and the role of the (own) car in those trips will decrease further and further

2050 - If we can make better use of airways and waterways, dispersion and thus less pressure on the mobility network will be a natural consequence

Dispersion is key To create a complete vision on mobility, we have spoken with various commercial parties and the government, but the academic perspective should also be included in this list. That is why we spoke with Suzanne Hiemstra - van Mastrigt, Director of the Seamless Mobility Lab of the Delft School of Technology (TU Delft). From her lab, she works closely with several companies and governments to create user-oriented mobility services that "are really for everyone," as she says.

TU Delft

Suzanne Hiemstra - van Mastrigt

Dispersion as a solution for the mobility problem

Although Hiemstra identifies a

she is involved in the seven

Our current mobility network

cultural and economic hub), the

MaaS pilots of the Ministry of

(before corona) is too crowded,

opposite problem exists in the

Infrastructure & Water

according to Hiemstra. Both the

more rural areas: “On the one

Management. Not so much in

roads and public transportation

hand, [we have to deal with]

the interpretation and

are super crowded during rush

crowded cities, traﬃc jams,

implementation of them, but in

hour and Hiemstra feels that it

pollution, little greenery, and

testing results and quality: "We

would be best if we worked on

poor accessibility, while on the

evaluate the MaaS services for

dispersing commuters over

other hand, there’s a lot of

ease of use and acceptance in

several time slots and

deletion in the more rural areas

order to determine the critical

modalities. Before corona,

[...], causing people to not have

user factors for successful

dispersion was necessary to

access to mobility, leaving them

implementation of MaaS in the

control the crowds, but now

isolated.”

Netherlands," she explains.

with our six-foot society, it’s

Also, she is part of a mobility consortium together with several other large parties and

problem with crowdedness in the Randstad (the Netherlands’

necessary to adhere to the

As said, Hiemstra sees

Together with Hiemstra - van

RIVM’s health recommen-

dispersion as a possible

Mastrigt, we regard mobility

dations. After corona, the need

solution and feels that the

from an academic point of view.

for diversification will continue

ministry should take the lead.

to exist, she thinks.

Something like MaaS could help with this,

4444

“

“Maybe we will soon have a car-free generation in addition to a smoke-free generation.”

but then it has to be

Otherwise we risk experiencing the same resistance as with the

implemented in a user-oriented

introduction of the OV chip card. Afterwards, (costly) improvements

manner. Hiemstra - van

were made with great eﬀort to fix it, but we would rather introduce a

Mastrigt: “Eventually, I would

service that works right from the start. To achieve this, we focus on

like to see a transportation

the needs of the traveler. This is the only way that we can make

authority in the Netherlands; an

MaaS a success.”

overarching party that can guarantee ease of use and other traveler issues (such as protecting privacy) on a national level.”

Traveling more consciously and sustainably When discussing mobility in the next five years, Hiemstra - van Mastrigt is mostly curious about how the MaaS pilots will develop. Additionally, she feels that the corona crisis is “a good time” to

User-oriented approach

reflect on our traveling behavior: “We are now seeing many

According to Hiemstra - van

pedestrians. I hope that we’ll be able to keep this up and that we

Mastrigt, the university can also

will travel more consciously and more sustainably in the next five

play an important role in this:

years,” she says. Besides this, she thinks that it’s important to make

“Universities are good, neutral

shared mobility more available because “to use it, it has to be

parties. They are involved with

available”. Both municipalities and companies can be involved in

everything, can help bring

this. Municipalities by facilitating shared mobility, and companies by

stakeholders together, and

oﬀering mobility cards or subscriptions to shared cars instead of a

come up with solutions and/or

lease car.

European cities that are creating more space for bicycles and

insights that help them along. In addition, in this role we can

And even though Hiemstra sees the corona crisis as a time for

ensure that MaaS is introduced

reflection, she also states that we should be wary of “not pushing

through a user-oriented

people from public transportation back into their cars. We should

approach.

oﬀer them alternatives and stimulate to [travel] more by bike, ebike and/ or other sustainable modalities”.

TU Delft

Suzanne Hiemstra - van Mastrigt

She thinks that in the next five years, we will see a shift to multimodal travel which will involve the (own) car less and less because of limited parking space and limited access to city centers: “Maybe we will soon have a car-free generation in addition to a smoke-free generation,” she daydreams.

On land, at sea and in the air Hiemstra thinks that in 30 years we will probably move more by water and by air than by land and road with urban air mobility, vertical take-oﬀ and landing vehicles, and sea bubbles. We will also use the Hyperloop and other electrical and sustainable modalities. "We must continue to take a critical look at our mobility needs," she comments. "If we have more sustainable alternatives in the future but still increasing travel movements, I don't know if we're on the right track," she continues. She hopes that we will appreciate and hold on to local things under the influence of the corona crisis.

Netflix for mobility

Working from home When asked if we will still have

On the road to this mobility transition, “behavioral change [is] the

a mobility problem at all in 2050,

biggest roadblock” according to Hiemstra - van Mastrigt. She thinks

Hiemstra - van Mastrigt laughed

there are two possible strategies you can apply: punishing behavior

and said that she hopes not. “If

or rewarding it. Hiemstra - van Mastrigt: “I would prefer it if we

we succeed in having people

could stimulate people to travel diﬀerently by oﬀering appealing

work from home one or two

alternatives.” People naturally resist change and that’s why it’s

days a week, this will reduce

paramount that we encourage them to embrace new technologies

traﬃc, and if we are able to add

and transportation methods by, among other things, making it as

more modalities and start using

easy as possible for them to try them out. “Kind of like a free Netflix

airways and waterways,

trial,” says Hiemstra - van Mastrigt.

dispersion is a real possibility,” she concludes.

Conclusion

Mobility as mirror of our (social) behavior How will mobility develop over the next 30 years? Will the world be

They call this “mobility

completely diﬀerent by 2050 or will it not change as fast as we think

happiness” and think that this

it will? Many changes are coming: Mobility as a Service,

should be the main goal.

autonomous transportation, and climate change. It’s interesting to see how these developments are viewed now by these experts. In

The deconstruction of

this conclusion I’ve tried to find the common themes in all these

infrastructure into mixable

diﬀerent perspectives.

modalities seems to develop further. Here too, stimulating

The real change that we will see in mobility will be a behavioral one;

behavior is key. We have to

diﬀerent uses of mobility, and embracing multimodality, supported

make smart choices, and

by smart apps. The challenge is to stimulate and motivate people to

encourage sustainable options,

change their (travel) behavior. According to most experts, the

as Wouter de Bruijne (ParkBee),

government has an important role in this: they have to encourage

among others, mentions. Martijn

these changes through management. Not by being the executive

Lammers (Lightyear) describes

party, but by creating frameworks with programs or rules. Or even

how sustainable vehicles will

through an overarching transport authority, which Suzanne Hiemstra

become platforms in the MaaS

- van Mastrigt of the TU Delft advocates. Joost van der Made (NS)

mix. Who should take the lead

would like the government to come up with a kind of Delta plan in

in connecting all these services

which they can indicate which problems should be tackled first.

and developments remains an

Tarik Fawzi (Hely) would like a small percentage of public

issue, though. There’s a lot of

transportation expenditure to be allocated to boosting shared-

room for improvement in the

transportation solutions.

cooperation between the government, corporates, and

New means of transportation Nobody seems to see eye to eye when it comes to the future mobility landscape, we’ve heard everything between “nothing will change” and “a mix of new mobilities”. Some experts name new ways of powering vehicles and new vehicles altogether, like the Hyperloop, and transportation over water and through the air, like Suzanne Hiemstra - van Mastrigt predicts. Whatever it looks like the car will still be a part of it, Ronald de Jong (ANWB) emphasizes. According to Stephanie Hughes and Hans Stevens of De Verkeersonderneming, mobility will have an important societal role and will be linked to our health.

consumers, says Erik Mink (Ministry of Infrastructure & Water Management). The government could have a stimulating role in this. Consider, for example, the new Merwede district in Utrecht, with its carfree streets that Niek Verlaan (Gemeente Utrecht) mentions.

Conclusion

But how much will actually

Acceleration

Joost van der Made also thinks

go back in time 30 years, we

Will we move around with the

important for mobility needs

were already moving around by

same intensity by 2050? Will our

than multimodality. We will make

train and plane, were stuck in

working from home evolve in

our behavioral choices

traﬃc, and even had high-speed

virtual oﬃces, and will meeting

diﬀerently and the mobility

trains. And yet, still a lot has

face-to-face become a luxury?

system has to make other mixes

changed when you look at

Corona has shown us that big

available to keep up.

initiatives like Greenwheels,

changes are possible. If these

Car2Go, and shared scooters.

will prove to be structural is

One thing is for sure though, we

Moreover, in 1990, consumers

hard to predict. The

will use digital resources.

didn’t have access to the

developments following corona

Whether as a digital assistant, a

internet, let alone owned a

seem to speed things up and a

mobility coach, or more

smartphone. The introduction of

test case for the future. In which

directional in assembling a

this, especially the location

climate change and the rise of

mobility mix. Our very own

determination and en-route data

sea levels will determine the

“mobility buddy”, as Tania

have been determining factors

layout of the land, as Toon

Rademaker (9292) calls it.

in the way that we view our

Zijlstra (KiM) mentions.

Things will become more end-

change in 30 years? When we

that sustainability is much more

mobility now. Artificial

to-end, with the goal being an

Intelligence will be a

important part of the trip.

determining factor for the future.

Three future dimensions Is there one future that we should strive for? External

The stimulating role of the government is important in the relationship between them and service providers. The

factors can determine the speed

government has withdrawn too much and relied too much on

of developments. At the same

the self-organizing capacity of the providers. The balance has

time, mobility is intertwined with

to be recalibrated.

everything we do, and with that not so much an external factor

as an indicator and a

(strongly) between infrastructure and services. Therefore, the addition of intelligent systems and smart assistants will also

determining factor for our future.

have to take into account the relationship between the

When considering the experts’

traveler and the mobility system. Is the traveler or the system

visions, I distill three dimensions:

The speed at which changes are implemented diﬀers

in the lead?

The social role of mobility will only increase. The shift from eﬃciency to sustainability and achieving social goals does not make the current plans obsolete. However, the way they are arranged needs to be reconsidered. We must optimize the transportation system for end-to-end journeys in which the goal of the trip also plays an important part.

Then, “mobility happiness” means that mobility is a normal part of our day-to-day lives, a determining factor of the society in which we live and work. The real changes, however, will take place in the ‘software’ of our lives and society. The services instead of the infrastructure. The impact of intelligent assistants will become inevitable in our increasingly complex world. But with the correct (social) intentions. As it becomes clear from these interviews, mobility is an important indicator of social-economic developments. With our mobility systems and the expected developments in flexibilization in the coming years, mobility will no longer be an infrastructural question but a question of behavior. Understanding behavior and the way in which we anticipate - and sometimes even direct - will shape our mobility in 2050.

Iskander Smit Innovation Director - INFO

Special thanks to

Colophon Interviews: Rochelle Balmer, Syra Vlaanderen Texts: Didi Hoogerwerf, Remmert Stipdonk, Iskander Smit Photography: Rochelle Balmer Design and layout: Romy van der Beek Illustrations: Laura MartĂn

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