INFORM Results 2016

INDEX FOR RISK MANAGEMENT RESULTS 2016

WELCOME Welcome to the INFORM (Index for Risk Management) 2016 global results report. INFORM is a way to understand and measure the risk of humanitarian crises and disasters, and how the conditions that lead to them affect sustainable development.

This is the second annual report of INFORM. Since last year, we have made some changes to the INFORM methodology. We have improved the way that conflict risk is measured and the model now includes new probabilistic assessments of most natural hazards.

We have also changed the way countries are categorised. Previous versions of INFORM simply placed an equal number of countries into four risk categories (very high, high, medium and low). Now, we use a technique called cluster analysis to place countries into categories based on their mutual similarities and we have added a fifth risk category (very low). These changes also apply at the dimension and category level and will help us track risk better from year to year.

Any changes in the INFORM methodology are always applied to at least five previous years of data, so trend analysis is still valid. In this way we can continue to improve the model, while maintaining continuity. You can find more details about these changes in the User Guide and Methodology documents, which are available on the INFORM website.

During 2015, we made significant progress in applying the INFORM methodology at subnational scale. This has involved working with partners to develop INFORM models tailored to specific regions and countries. From 2016, we will be supporting local lead organisations and their partners to develop INFORM Subnational models and validate them to global standards. Some examples of the models are shown in this report and you can find new guidance about the process on the INFORM website.

1

INFORM 2016

INFORM MEASURES THE RISK OF HUMANITARIAN CRISES AND DISASTERS IN 191 COUNTRIES COUNTRY

RISK

3 YR TREND

COUNTRY

Afghanistan

7.9

Albania

2.9

à

Colombia

Algeria

4.8

à

Comoros

Angola

4.2

à

Antigua and Barbuda

2.3

Argentina Armenia

RISK

3 YR TREND

COUNTRY

3 YR TREND

à

Guinea-Bissau

4.0

ä

5.6

à

Guyana

2.8

à

2.7

à

Haiti

6.0

æ

Congo

3.5

æ

Honduras

4.5

ä

à

Congo DR

6.9

æ

Hungary

2.0

à

2.4

à

Costa Rica

3.3

à

Iceland

1.2

à

3.2

à

Côte d'Ivoire

4.6

à

India

5.6

à

Australia

2.3

à

Croatia

2.4

à

Indonesia

4.6

à

Austria

1.7

à

Cuba

2.5

à

Iran

4.6

à

Azerbaijan

3.8

æ

Cyprus

2.8

à

Iraq

7.2

ä

Bahamas

2.0

à

Czech Republic

1.6

à

Ireland

1.5

à

Bahrain

0.8

à

Denmark

0.9

à

Israel

2.5

à

Bangladesh

5.9

ä

Djibouti

4.4

à

Italy

2.9

à

Barbados

1.6

à

Dominica

2.6

à

Jamaica

2.8

à

Belarus

1.9

à

Dominican Republic

3.6

à

Japan

2.1

à

Belgium

1.2

à

Ecuador

4.3

ä

Jordan

3.8

à

Belize

3.1

à

Egypt

4.6

æ

Kazakhstan

2.1

à

Benin

3.5

à

El Salvador

3.5

à

Kenya

6.2

à

Bhutan

2.9

à

Equatorial Guinea

2.7

à

Kiribati

4.5

ä

Bolivia

3.2

à

Eritrea

4.8

ä

Korea DPR

4.4

à

Bosnia and Herzegovina

4.0

ä

Estonia

1.1

à

Korea Republic of

1.7

à

Botswana

3.1

à

Ethiopia

6.4

à

Kuwait

2.0

à

Brazil

3.4

à

Fiji

3.2

à

Kyrgyzstan

3.3

ä

Brunei Darussalam

1.1

à

Finland

0.6

à

Lao PDR

4.2

à

Bulgaria

2.5

à

France

2.7

à

Latvia

1.6

à

Burkina Faso

4.8

ä

Gabon

2.6

à

Lebanon

5.1

à

Burundi

4.6

à

Gambia

2.9

à

Lesotho

3.9

ä

Cabo Verde

2.7

à

Georgia

3.9

à

Liberia

4.0

à

Cambodia

4.0

à

Germany

1.9

à

Libya

5.9

ä

Cameroon

4.6

ä

Ghana

3.0

à

Liechtenstein

1.1

à

Canada

2.7

à

Greece

2.6

ä

Lithuania

1.4

à

Central African Republic

8.3

à

Grenada

1.9

à

Luxembourg

0.7

à

Chad

6.0

à

Guatemala

5.1

ä

Macedonia FYR

2.8

ä

Chile

3.1

à

Guinea

5.1

ä

Madagascar

4.9

à

à

China

4.3

INFORM RISK INDEX 0

2.0

KEY 3.5

5.0

6.5

10

à Stable Very low

2

RISK

Low

Medium

High

Very High

Not included in INFORM

ä Increasing risk æ Decreasing risk

The depic and Europ 0

Ve

The depiction and use of boundaries are not warranted to be error free nor do they necessarily imply official endoresment or acceptance by the Unites Nations and European Union.

COUNTRY

RISK

Malawi

4.2

Malaysia Maldives

3 YR TREND

COUNTRY

RISK

3 YR TREND

ä

Papua New Guinea

5.1

à

3.5

ä

Paraguay

2.5

à

2.4

à

Peru

4.4

à

COUNTRY

RISK

Sudan

3 YR TREND

7.2

à

Suriname

2.6

à

Swaziland

3.1

ä

ction and use of boundaries are not warranted6.6 to beæerror free nor do they necessarily imply endoresment Nations Mali Philippines 5.2 official Sweden or acceptance by the 1.1 Unites à à pean Union.

Malta 1.7 à Poland 2.1 à Switzerland 1.4 à

ery low

Marshall Islands

4.2

ä æ

Qatar 5.0

à

Syria

1.3

à6.5

2.2

à

Romania

2.9

à

Tanzania

4.9

à Medium Russian Federation High

4.7

ä

Thailand Very high

Micronesia

4.0

à

Moldova Republic of

3.3

à

Rwanda

4.4

à

Timor-Leste

4.1

à

Saint Kitts and Nevis

2.4

à

Togo

3.9

à

Mongolia

3.1

Montenegro

2.7

à

Saint Lucia

2.4

à

à ä

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

Morocco

3.5

2.1

à

Mozambique

5.9

à

Samoa

2.3

Myanmar Namibia

6.8

ä

Sao Tome and Principe

3.7

à

Saudi Arabia

Nauru

2.6

ä

Nepal

5.1

ä

Netherlands

1.4

New Zealand Nicaragua

2.0 Mauritania Mauritius Mexico

Low

3.55.1

Portugal

1.9

Tajikistan

10.0

6.6

ä

4.0

à

4.6

à

4.3 àin INFORM Not included

Tonga

3.3

à

Trinidad and Tobago

2.0

à

Tunisia

2.8

æ

à

Turkey

4.7

à

1.3

ä

Turkmenistan

3.6

ä

2.4

æ

Tuvalu

3.1

ä

Senegal

4.3

à

Uganda

6.5

à

Serbia

4.0

à

Ukraine

5.4

ä

à

Seychelles

2.3

à

United Arab Emirates

2.0

à

2.0

à

Sierra Leone

4.3

à

United Kingdom

2.0

à

4.1

à

Singapore

0.4

ä

United States of America

3.2

à

Niger

5.7

à

Slovakia

1.9

à

Uruguay

1.8

à

Nigeria

6.3

à

Slovenia

1.4

à

Uzbekistan

3.3

à

Norway

1.0

à

Solomon Islands

5.6

ä

Vanuatu

4.6

ä

Oman

2.9

à

Somalia

8.7

æ

Venezuela

3.8

à

Pakistan

6.4

à

South Africa

3.8

à

Viet Nam

3.7

à

Palau

2.7

à

South Sudan

7.9

ä

Yemen

7.5

ä

Palestine

6.1

ä

Spain

2.1

à

Zambia

4.2

à

Panama

3.7

à

Sri Lanka

4.3

ä

Zimbabwe

4.2

-

3

INFORM 2016

INFORM is the first global, objective and transparent tool for understanding the risk of humanitarian crises and disasters. It can help identify where and why a crisis might occur, which means we can reduce the risk, build peoples’ resilience and prepare better for when crises do happen.

INFORM is...

Available for 191 countries

Free and open to all

Based on the best methods and regularly updated

You can use INFORM to‌.

Prioritise countries by risk, or any of its components

Decide how best to reduce risk

Monitor risk trends

INFORM can be adapted... ...for your organisation or region and the same methodology can be used for national and regional risk assessment.

4

HOW IT WORKS

INFORM simplifies a lot of information about risk.

It uses 50 different indicators to measure hazards and peoples’ exposure to them, vulnerability, and the resources available to help people cope.

INFORM creates a risk profile for every country. Each has a rating between 0 and 10 for risk and all of its components, so its easy to compare.

Components of risk covered by INFORM INFORM

Access to health system

Physical infrastructure

Infrastructure

Communication

Institutional

Governance

Other vulnerable groups

Uprooted people

Vulnerable groups Aid dependency (25%)

Inaquality (25%)

Socioeconomic Development & deprivation (50%)

Projected conflict risk

Current conflict intensity

Components

Human

Drought

Flood

Tropical cyclone

Earthquake

Tsunami

Natural

Categories

Lack of coping capacity

Vulnerability

DRR

Hazard & exposure

Dimensions

Get the results...

INFORM results are available at www.inform-index.org, where you can: download a spreadsheet with all the results, calculations and source data; view and print country profiles; explore the data interactively; and find out more about how INFORM works and how you can use it.

www.inform-index.org www.inform-index.org

5

INFORM 2016

RISK OF HUMANITARIAN CRISES AND DISASTERS

The overall INFORM risk index identifies countries at risk from humanitarian crises and disasters that could overwhelm national response capacity. It is made up of three dimensions – hazards and exposure, vulnerability and lack of coping capacity. This map shows details for the 12 countries with the highest overall risk.

INFORM 2016 RISK INDEX Sudan

Syrian Arab Republic

Iraq

Afghanistan

Risk: 7.2 3 Yr trend: à Hazard: 7.1 Vulnerability: 7.1 Lack of coping capacity: 7.3

Risk: 6.6 3 Yr trend: ä Hazard: 8.4 Vulnerability: 6.0 Lack of coping capacity: 5.8

Risk: 7.2 3 Yr trend: ä Hazard: 8.5 Vulnerability: 6.1 Lack of coping capacity: 7.1

Risk: 7.9 3 Yr trend: à Hazard: 8.6 Vulnerability: 7.2 Lack of coping capacity: 8.0

Central Africa Republic Risk: 8.3 3 Yr trend: à Hazard: 7.8 Vulnerability: 8.3 Lack of coping capacity: 8.7

Mali Risk: 6.6 3 Yr trend: æ Hazard: 6.2 Vulnerability: 6.8 Lack of coping capacity: 6.8

DR Congo Risk: 6.9 3 Yr trend: æ Hazard: 5.3 Vulnerability: 7.6 Lack of coping capacity: 8.1

Myanmar Risk: 6.8 3 Yr trend: ä Hazard: 7.7 Vulnerability: 5.8 Lack of coping capacity: 7.0

South Sudan

Uganda

Somalia

Yemen

Risk: 7.9 3 Yr trend: ä Hazard: 6.8 Vulnerability: 8.2 Lack of coping capacity: 8.9

Risk: 6.5 3 Yr trend: à Hazard: 6.1 Vulnerability: 6.2 Lack of coping capacity: 7.1

Risk: 8.7 3 Yr trend: æ Hazard: 8.8 Vulnerability: 8.3 Lack of coping capacity: 9.1

Risk: 7.5 3 Yr trend: ä Hazard: 8.1 Vulnerability: 6.6 Lack of coping capacity: 7.9

2.0

0

5.0

3.5

6.5

10.0

KEY

ä Increasing risk à Stable æ Decreasing risk Very low

6

Low

Medium

High

Very high

Not included in INFORM

HAZARDS & EXPOSURE

This dimension of INFORM measures hazardous events that could occur and the people or assets potentially affected by them. It is made up of two categories – natural hazards and human hazards. This map shows details for the 12 countries with the highest values in the hazard & exposure dimension.

INFORM 2016 HAZARD & EXPOSURE DIMENSION Syrian Arab Republic

Iraq

Afghanistan

Pakistan

Hazard: 8.4 3 Yr trend: à Natural: 4.4 Human: 10.0

Hazard: 8.5 3 Yr trend: à Natural: 5.1 Human: 10.0

Hazard: 8.6 3 Yr trend: à Natural: 5.5 Human: 10.0

Hazard: 7.5 3 Yr trend: æ Natural: 6.9 Human: 8.0

India Hazard: 7.4 3 Yr trend: à Natural: 7.8 Human: 6.9

Bangladesh Hazard: 7.2 3 Yr trend: à Natural: 8.6 Human: 5.0

Philippines Hazard: 8.1 3 Yr trend: æ Natural: 8.9 Human: 7.0

Mexico

Myanmar

Hazard: 8.2 3 Yr trend: à Natural: 7.1 Human: 9.0

Hazard: 7.7 3 Yr trend: à Natural: 8.2 Human: 7.0

Central African Republic Hazard: 7.8 3 Yr trend: à Natural: 1.4 Human: 10.0

1.5

0

4.1

2.7

Somalia

Yemen

Hazard: 8.8 3 Yr trend: à Natural: 6.2 Human: 10.0

Hazard: 8.1 3 Yr trend: à Natural: 2.7 Human: 10.0

6.1

10.0

KEY

ä Increasing risk à Stable æ Decreasing risk Very low

Low

Medium

High

Very high

Not included in INFORM

7

INFORM 2016

VULNERABILITY

This dimension of INFORM measures the susceptibility of people to potential hazards.

It is made up of two categories – socio-economic vulnerability and vulnerable groups. This map shows details for the 12 countries with the highest values in the vulnerability dimension.

INFORM 2015 VULNERABILITY DIMENSION Chad Chad

Vulnerability: 7.4 Vulnerability: 7.4 3 Yr trend: ä 3 Yr trend: ä Socio-economic Socio-economic vulnerablility: 6.8 vulnerablility: 6.8 Vulnerable groups: 8.0 Vulnerable groups: 8.0

Sudan Sudan

Lebanon Lebanon

Vulnerability: 7.1 Vulnerability: 7.1 3 Yr trend: à 3 Yr trend: à Socio-economic Socio-economic vulnerablility: 5.4 vulnerablility: 5.4 Vulnerable groups: 8.3 Vulnerable groups: 8.3

Vulnerability: 6.9 Vulnerability: 6.9 3 Yr trend: ä 3 Yr trend: ä Socio-economic Socio-economic vulnerablility: 4.2 vulnerablility: 4.2 Vulnerable groups: 8.5 Vulnerable groups: 8.5

Afghanistan Afghanistan

Vulnerability: 7.2 Vulnerability: 7.2 3 Yr trend: æ 3 Yr trend: æ Socio-economic Socio-economic vulnerablility: 6.9 vulnerablility: 6.9 Vulnerable groups: 7.4 Vulnerable groups: 7.4

Mali Mali

Vulnerability: 6.8 Vulnerability: 6.8 3 Yr trend: æ 3 Yr trend: æ Socio-economic Socio-economic vulnerablility: 7.7 vulnerablility: 7.7 Vulnerable groups: 5.6 Vulnerable groups: 5.6

Liberia Liberia

Vulnerability: 7.1 Vulnerability: 7.1 3 Yr trend: æ 3 Yr trend: æ Socio-economic Socio-economic vulnerablility: 8.3 vulnerablility: 8.3 Vulnerable groups: 5.4 Vulnerable groups: 5.4

Burkina Burkina Faso Faso

Vulnerability: 6.8 Vulnerability: 6.8 3 Yr trend: ä 3 Yr trend: ä Socio-economic Socio-economic vulnerablility: 7.3 vulnerablility: 7.3 Vulnerable groups: 6.2 Vulnerable groups: 6.2

Central Central African African Republic Republic

8

2.0 2.0

0 0 Very low Very low

Vulnerability: 8.3 Vulnerability: 8.3 3 Yr trend: æ 3 Yr trend: æ Socio-economic Socio-economic vulnerablility: 7.7 vulnerablility: 7.7 Vulnerable groups: 8.8 Vulnerable groups: 8.8

DR DR Congo Congo

Vulnerability: 8.3 Vulnerability: 8.3 3 Yr trend: æ 3 Yr trend: æ Socio-economic Socio-economic vulnerablility: 8.3 vulnerablility: 8.3 Vulnerable groups: 8.2 Vulnerable groups: 8.2

KEY KEY

Somalia Somalia

4.8 4.8

3.3 3.3 Low Low

Burundi Burundi

Vulnerability: 7.6 Vulnerability: 7.6 3 Yr trend: æ 3 Yr trend: æ Socio-economic Socio-economic vulnerablility: 7.1 vulnerablility: 7.1 Vulnerable groups: 8.1 Vulnerable groups: 8.1

Medium Medium

Vulnerability: 7.0 Vulnerability: 7.0 3 Yr trend: à 3 Yr trend: à Socio-economic Socio-economic vulnerablility: 7.6 vulnerablility: 7.6 Vulnerable groups: 6.4 Vulnerable groups: 6.4

6.4 6.4 High High

10.0 10.0 Very high Very high

Not included Not included in INFORM in INFORM

South South Sudan Sudan

Vulnerability: 8.2 Vulnerability: 8.2 3 Yr trend: ä 3 Yr trend: ä Socio-economic Socio-economic vulnerablility: 7.8 vulnerablility: 7.8 Vulnerable groups: 8.6 Vulnerable groups: 8.6

ä Increasing risk à Stable æ Decreasing risk ä Increasing risk à Stable æ Decreasing risk

LACK OF COPING CAPACITY

This dimension of INFORM measures the lack of resources available that can help people cope with hazardous events. It is made up of two categories – institutions and infrastructure. This map shows details for the 12 countries with the highest values in the lack of coping capacity dimension.

INFORM 2015 LACK OF COPING DIMENSION Chad Chad

Togo Togo

Eritrea Eritrea

Lack of coping Lack of coping capacity: 9.0 capacity: 9.0 3 Yr trend: à 3 Yr trend: à7.9 Institutional: Institutional: Infrastructure:7.9 9.7 Infrastructure: 9.7

Lack of coping Lack of coping capacity: 8.1 capacity: 8.1 3 Yr trend: æ 3 Yr trend: æ 8.3 Institutional: Institutional: Infrastructure:8.3 7.9 Infrastructure: 7.9

Lack of coping Lack of coping capacity: 7.9 capacity: 7.9 3 Yr trend: à 3 Yr trend: à8.2 Institutional: Institutional: Infrastructure:8.2 7.5 Infrastructure: 7.5

Afghanistan Afghanistan

Lack of coping Lack of coping capacity: 8.0 capacity: 8.0 3 Yr trend: à 3 Yr trend: à7.4 Institutional: Institutional: Infrastructure:7.4 8.5 Infrastructure: 8.5

Liberia Liberia

Lack of coping Lack of coping capacity: 8.0 capacity: 8.0 3 Yr trend: à 3 Yr trend: à7.0 Institutional: Institutional: Infrastructure:7.0 8.8 Infrastructure: 8.8

Guinea-Bissau Guinea-Bissau

Lack of coping Lack of coping capacity: 7.9 capacity: 7.9 3 Yr trend: æ 3 Yr trend: æ 7.9 Institutional: Institutional: Infrastructure:7.9 7.8 Infrastructure: 7.8

Central African Central African Republic Republic Lack of coping Lack of coping capacity: 8.7 capacity: 8.7 3 Yr trend: ä 3 Yr trend: ä 8.1 Institutional: Institutional: Infrastructure:8.1 9.1 Infrastructure: 9.1

Papua New Papua New Guinea Guinea

Lack of coping Lack of coping capacity: 8.1 capacity: 8.1 3 Yr trend: à 3 Yr trend: à6.9 Institutional: Institutional: Infrastructure:6.9 9.0 Infrastructure: 9.0

DR Congo DR Congo

South Sudan South Sudan

Lack of coping Lack of coping capacity: 8.1 capacity: 8.1 3 Yr trend: à 3 Yr trend: à7.8 Institutional: Institutional: Infrastructure:7.8 8.3 Infrastructure: 8.3

KEY KEY

0 0

Lack of coping Lack of coping capacity: 8.9 capacity: 8.9 3 Yr trend: ä 3 Yr trend: ä 8.3 Institutional: Institutional: Infrastructure:8.3 9.4 Infrastructure: 9.4

3.2 3.2 Very low Very low

4.7 4.7 Low Low

Lack of coping Lack of coping capacity: 7.9 capacity: 7.9 3 Yr trend: ä 3 Yr trend: ä 6.0 Institutional: Institutional: Infrastructure:6.0 9.1 Infrastructure: 9.1

Lack of coping Lack of coping capacity: 9.1 capacity: 9.1 3 Yr trend: æ 3 Yr trend: æ 9.3 Institutional: Institutional: Infrastructure:9.3 8.8 Infrastructure: 8.8

6.0 6.0 Medium Medium

Madagascar Madagascar

Somalia Somalia

7.4 7.4 High High

10.0 10.0 Very high Very high

Not included Not included in INFORM in INFORM

ä Increasing risk à Stable æ Decreasing risk ä Increasing risk à Stable æ Decreasing risk

9

INFORM 2016

PRIORITISING USING RISK LEVEL AND TRENDS INFORM can be used to group countries based on their current level of risk and the trend over previous years. For example, large increases in countries already with high levels of risk could be used to prioritise them for increased crisis and disaster prevention, preparedness and response.

very high

Central African Republic 8.0

Afghanistan

High

South Sudan Yemen Iraq Myanmar Syria

Sudan Uganda

Bangladesh Palestine Libya Solomon Islands Ukraine Nepal Guinea Guatemala

6.0

5.0

Low

•R isk is considered to be decreasing if it is 0.3 or more lower.

Somalia

7.0

Medium

•R isk is considered to be increasing if the 2016 value is 0.3 or more higher than the 2014 value.

9.0

Level of risk Inform in 2016

The risk trend categories shown are determined by the risk level (very high, high, medium, low, very low) and the three year trend in INFORM (2014-2016).

Risk 10.0

4.0

3.0

Very low

2.0

1.0

0.0 -1.3

-0.8

-0.3

Improving

0.3 Stable

0.8

1.3

1.8

Worsening

3YR Trend (Inform 2016 — inform 2014)

10

2.3

2.8

Very high and decreasing

Very high and stable

Very high and increasing

Congo DR

Afghanistan

Iraq

Mali

Central African Republic

Myanmar

Sudan

Syria

Uganda

Yemen

High and decreasing

High and stable

High and increasing

Haiti

Chad

Bangladesh

Mauritania

Colombia

Guatemala

Ethiopia

Guinea

India

Libya

Kenya

Nepal

Lebanon

Palestine

Mozambique

Solomon Islands

Niger

Ukraine

Somalia

South Sudan

Nigeria Pakistan Papua New Guinea Philippines

Medium and decreasing

Medium and stable

Medium and increasing

Azerbaijan

Algeria

Micronesia

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Congo

Angola

Namibia

Burkina Faso

Egypt

Benin

Nicaragua

Cameroon

Burundi

Panama

Ecuador

Cambodia

Peru

Eritrea

China

Rwanda

Guinea-Bissau

C么te d'Ivoire

Senegal

Honduras

Djibouti

Serbia

Kiribati

Dominican Republic

Sierra Leone

Lesotho

El Salvador

South Africa

Malawi

Georgia

Tajikistan

Malaysia

Indonesia

Tanzania

Marshall Islands

Iran

Thailand

Morocco

Jordan

Timor-Leste

Russian Federation

Korea DPR

Togo

Sri Lanka

Lao PDR

Turkey

Turkmenistan

Liberia

Venezuela

Vanuatu

Madagascar

Viet Nam

Mexico

Zambia

Micronesia

Zimbabwe

11

INFORM 2016

WHERE HAS RISK INCREASED AND DECREASED MOST? Highest increases in risk

Highest decreases in risk

9.0 Somalia

8.0

7.0

Congo DR

Iraq

Mali

6.0

Libya

Mauritania

5.0

Guinea Guatemala

Egypt

Vanuatu

4.0

Russian Federation

Azerbaijan Congo Kyrgyzstan

Palestine Guinea-Bissau Lesotho

3.0

Tunisia

Ukraine

Saudi Arabia

Note: INFORM trends are not proportional to the level of risk in a country. Therefore, the increases and decreases are more likely to occur in high-risk countries. We hope to introduce proportional trends in coming years. INFORM trends may not reflect the most recent (<1yr) developments in a country.

2.0

1.0

2014

2016 2014

2016

3 YEAR INFORM RISK TRENDS BY REGION 2014–2016 Africa (54)

Americas (35)

Asia (48)

Europe (40)

Oceania (14)

World (191)

Significant increase (≥0.3)

11

3

10

5

6

35

Stable (≤0.3 / ≥-0.3)

36

31

35

35

8

145

7

1

3

0

0

11

Significant decrease (≤-0.3)

12

INFORM AND HUMANITARIAN AND DEVELOPMENT FINANCE One of the purposes of INFORM is to improve the evidence for making decisions about allocating resources for crisis and disaster prevention and preparedness, as well as investments in sustainable development.

humanitarian financing is quite well aligned with risk by this measure, development finance is less so. Some countries with high levels of risk are not among the highest recipients of either humanitarian or development assistance.

Understanding how resource allocation aligns with risk is complex, given the lack of useful data and difficulty in making meaningful comparisons.

This chart shows how allocations of international humanitarian and development finance compare to risk levels, according to INFORM. While

We hope to be able to improve the sophistication of this type of analysis in future years using a longer time series of INFORM data. This will help us understand the accuracy of INFORM better, as well as the relation of financing and risk.

Top 20 recipients of international humanitarian response from government donors and private contributors 2013* (total amount)

Top 20 recipients of official development assistance (ODA) 2013 (total amount)

INFORM Rank

INFORM

Risk**

Rank

3

7.9

Rank

Central African Republic

2

Risk**

10

Palestine*

17

6.1

Viet Nam

84

3.7

Libya

20

5.9

6

7.2

Ethiopia

13

6.4

Solomon Islands

24

5.6

South Sudan

Afghanistan

INFORM

Risk**

Syria

Sudan

6.6

20 countries with highest INFORM rank that are not among the top 20 recipients of humanitarian response or ODA

8.3

3

7.9

Tanzania

42

4.6

Colombia

24

5.6

Jordan

80

3.8

Kenya

16

6.2

Ukraine

27

5.4

Lebanon

29

5.1

Turkey

40

4.7

Guinea

29

5.1

Somalia

1

8.7

Bangladesh

20

5.9

Mauritania

29

5.1

Ethiopia

13

6.4

Nigeria

15

6.3

Guatemala

29

5.1

3

7.9

Palestine***

17

6.1

Papua New Guinea

29

5.1

24

5.6

Nepal

29

5.1

8

6.9

Madagascar

35

4.9

Afghanistan

8

6.9

India

Philippines

Congo DR

28

5.2

Congo DR

Pakistan

13

6.4

Mozambique

20

5.9

Mexico

35

4.9

5

7.5

Pakistan

13

6.4

Burkina Faso

37

4.8

Yemen Kenya

16

6.2

Syria

10

6.6

Eritrea

37

4.8

Mali

10

6.6

Morocco

89

3.5

Algeria

37

4.8

12

6.5

Russian Federation

40

4.7

6

7.2

Cameroon

42

4.6

9

6.8

Uganda

Haiti

Myanmar

18

6.0

Iraq

Niger

23

5.7

South Sudan

6

7.2

Mali

18

6.0

Ghana

Iraq Chad

3

7.9

Egypt

42

4.6

10

6.6

Iran

42

4.6

110

3.0

Vanuatu

42

4.6

* 2013 is the latest year for which financial data is available ** INFORM data is from 2016 *** Palestine is referred to as oPT in humanitarian response data and West Bank and Gaza Strip in ODA data Source of humanitarian response and ODA data: Global Humanitarian Assistance Report 2015, http://www.globalhumanitarianassistance.org

13

INFORM 2016

INFORM SUBNATIONAL

S U B N A T I O N A L

During 2015, the INFORM methodology and process was used to develop individual risk models for Colombia, Lebanon, the Sahel and the Greater Horn of Africa. These have the same features and benefits as the global model, but are subnational in scale and are tailored to each country or region. Examples of this work are shown below.

Colombia

From 2016, INFORM will support the implementation of more Subnational models in other countries or regions.

Developing an INFORM Subnational model is a locally owned and managed, cost-effective process that is supported by the global INFORM initiative. This ensures that each model has local buyin and is adapted to local risks and uses, but draws on global resources and expertise and is validated according to global standards.

The development of the INFORM Colombia model was initiated by OCHA and UNICEF. It is a municipallevel risk index, which identifies threats, vulnerabilities and response capacities throughout the country.

The results have been used in the Humanitarian Needs Overview 2016 and by UNICEF planners and donors. The model includes specific components to evaluate risk levels for children and adolescents. Partners are now investigating if the model can be extended to cover additional countries in the region.

Further information and guidance on developing INFORM Subnational models is now available on the INFORM website.

Sudan

Greater Horn of Africa region The INFORM Greater Horn of Africa model is part of an initiative of Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and OCHA to improve IGADâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s ability to analyse, visualise and disseminate information to support the prevention, preparedness and response to humanitarian crises in the region. The model will be updated regularly to support regional coordination and prioritise humanitarian, development, risk management and resilience investments.

14

Ethiopia

Eritrea Djibouti

South Sudan Somalia

Uganda Rwanda Burundi

Kenya

Mali

Niger

Chad

Mauritania Senegal

Sahel region

Gambia

Burkina Faso

Nigeria Cameroon

The regional INFORM Sahel model was initiated by the Emergency Response and Preparedness Group of the regional Inter-Agency Standing Committee (IASC) and is managed by OCHA. The INFORM model is being used to support the Humanitarian Programme Cycle and coordinated preparedness actions.

Partners hope to use the model to improve cooperation between humanitarian and development actors in managing risk and building resilience across the region.

Lebanon INFORM Lebanon was developed by the Lebanon Joint Analysis Unit, which supports the Resident/ Humanitarian Coordinator and is a collaboration of humanitarian, development and governmental partners that supports cross sectoral planning at the national level. INFORM Lebanon is being embedded in regional processes and coordination mechanisms to help all partners quantify and prioritise humanitarian and disaster risks in Lebanon in the context of the regional Syrian Crisis Response.

15

INFORM 2016

INFORM 2016 FULL RESULTS

LACK OF COPING CAPACITY

3 YR TREND

Institutional

8.6

à

5.5

10.0

7.2

æ

6.9

7.4

8.0

à

7.4

8.5

3.0

5.1

0.3

1.7

1.0

4.8

3.1

8.0

3.5

3.3

3.6

4.9

4.9

4.9

2.0

2.6

4.6

4.5

4.7

7.1

à ä ä

6.2

3.6

à à æ

2.3

2.3

à à à

6.6

7.5

Infrastructure

Human

à

Socio-Economic Vulnerability

Natural

7.9

2.9

3 YR TREND

3 YR TREND

3 111

VULNERABILITY

HAZARD & EXPOSURE

Albania

3 YR TREND

Afghanistan

RANK

COUNTRY

INFORM RISK

t

Vulnerable Groups

These tables show the results of INFORM to the category level for 2016. For the latest results, including component level, indicators and source data, visit the INFORM website: www.inform-index.org.

Algeria

37

4.8

Angola

62

4.2

à à à

Antigua and Barbuda

144

2.3

à

2.0

à

3.7

0.0

1.7

æ

2.0

1.3

3.5

à

4.7

2.1

Argentina

138

2.4

1.7

1.5

1.1

3.7

2.1

0.1

3.0

2.4

3.6

5.0

Australia

144

2.3

5.7

0.1

1.7

0.6

2.7

2.1

Austria

167

1.7

2.3

0.1

2.2

0.8

3.4

1.7

80

3.8

3.8

0.5

4.6

1.8

6.5

5.0

à à à à æ

5.0

3.8

à à à à à

1.9

3.2

à à à à æ

3.1

100

à à à à æ

2.4

Armenia

6.5

2.9

Bahamas

154

2.0

1.7

0.0

1.6

0.9

3.0

2.8

0.8

0.1

0.1

1.6

1.9

1.2

3.0

4.2

1.6

5.9

8.6

5.0

4.9

3.9

5.7

5.7

5.1

6.3

Barbados

170

1.6

1.7

0.0

1.7

2.6

0.8

2.6

2.7

2.4

Belarus

161

1.9

1.6

1.8

1.3

1.2

1.0

1.3

3.4

à à à ä æ

3.1

20

à à ä ä à

2.3

188

à à à à à

3.2

Bahrain

à à ä à à

4.9

1.5

Belgium

180

1.2

à

0.7

à

1.4

0.0

1.8

à

0.8

2.7

1.5

æ

2.1

0.8

Belize

104

3.1

à

2.7

à

4.8

0.0

2.2

à

3.2

1.0

4.9

æ

5.4

4.4

Benin

89

3.5

1.3

1.3

4.6

2.2

7.2

8.3

2.8

0.1

3.3

4.9

1.2

5.0

à æ

5.8

2.9

à à

6.4

111

à à

1.2

Bhutan

à à

4.2

5.7

Bolivia

100

3.2

à ä à à

2.2

à à à æ

3.4

0.7

2.8

3.4

2.2

5.5

5.1

1.8

4.8

2.6

0.3

4.0

3.7

3.6

2.5

à à ä à

5.9

3.8

à ä à ä

0.3

0.6

0.0

0.9

2.2

à à

3.1

1.1

2.3

à ä

Azerbaijan

Bangladesh

Bosnia and Herzegovina Botswana Brazil

70

4.0

104

3.1

6.3

2.1 3.4 1.3 2.3 0.1 7.2

0.9

1.5 2.9 1.5 3.7

2.6

6.5

4.6

4.3

3.6

4.9

2.5

2.5

4.1

1.0

0.8

4.7

2.0

2.6

3.2

à æ

6.6

2.7

2.2

1.9

2.2

1.2

6.0

2.8

4.9

4.9

4.9

3.3

4.9

4.5

4.2

2.0 7.7

94

3.4

Brunei Darussalam

182

1.1

Bulgaria

134

2.5

à à

Burkina Faso

37

4.8

ä

2.6

ä

2.4

2.7

6.8

ä

7.3

6.2

6.4

æ

4.7

Burundi

42

4.6

à

2.2

à

2.5

1.8

7.0

à

7.6

6.4

6.3

æ

6.1

6.5

122

2.7

à

1.1

à

2.0

0.1

4.0

æ

6.0

1.2

4.3

à

4.0

4.5

Cambodia

70

4.0

1.1

3.2

2.2

6.8

2.1

3.7

5.6

4.9

6.2

6.0

122

2.7

4.9

1.4

2.4

0.9

3.7

2.4

2

8.3

1.4

10.0

8.3

à ä à æ

4.1

4.6

à ä à à

4.4

42

à ä à à

2.9

Cameroon

8.3

8.2

8.7

à à à ä

Chad

18

6.0

3.2

3.6

7.4

6.8

8.0

9.0

104

3.1

7.4

0.9

2.1

2.4

1.7

2.9

China

56

4.3

1.7

4.0

4.0

Colombia

24

5.6

2.8

7.9

4.2

Comoros

122

2.7

0.5

à à à à à

2.8

Chile

à à à à à

7.6

2.4

7.1

à à à à æ

89

3.5

æ

1.1

Congo DR

8

6.9

æ

Costa Rica

95

3.3

Cabo Verde

Canada Central African Republic

Congo

Côte d'Ivoire

42

4.6

Croatia

138

2.4

Cuba

134

2.5

Cyprus

117

2.8

Czech Republic

170

1.6

16

2.9 3.3 7.8

7.1

6.4

4.8

7.0

2.3

2.4

8.1

9.1

7.9

9.7

2.9

2.9

4.2

3.8

4.3

4.1

7.8

6.3 7.3

8.2

5.1

2.9

6.7

7.0

5.9

0.8

0.1

5.6

ä à à à à

à

1.9

0.2

5.1

æ

4.1

6.0

7.5

à

7.6

5.3

æ

2.9

7.0

7.6

æ

7.1

8.1

8.1

à

7.8

8.3

à à à à

4.0

à à à à

6.5

0.1

3.0

2.8

3.1

3.0

3.0

2.7

6.0

5.3

0.1

1.4

5.1

2.3

1.3

à à à æ

3.0

1.5

à ä ä à

à à

2.0

à à

3.6

0.1

4.4

2.0

0.4

1.5

à ä

à æ

5.0 6.9 6.9

2.1 3.1 3.8 1.2

5.9

6.0

7.6

1.6

1.2

3.2

2.3

0.2

3.3

1.3

6.5

2.5

0.9

2.0

2.3

7.4

7.8

4.4

1.7

4.1

2.4

3.0

1.9

3.3

1.1

4.0

4.7

3.7

1.3

4.7

3.3

à æ

4.2

2.3

2.0

5.6

æ

6.3

0.9

0.1

1.3

ä

1.4

6.6

1.0

2.2

7.1

0.2

3.9

5.0

7.0

3.4

5.8

0.3

2.6

0.8

à à

1.3

0.2

ä

2.5

ä

2.9

1.1

à

0.5

ä

INFORM RISK

2.9

3.5

2.7

à à

37

4.8

182

Dominican Republic

87

3.6

Ecuador

56

4.3

Egypt

42

4.6

El Salvador

89

3.5

122

Eritrea Estonia

4.4 4.5 6.1

Infrastructure

2.7

0.0

1.8

Institutional

LACK OF COPING CAPACITY 4.5

3.3

2.6

3 YR TREND

Vulnerable Groups

4.8

4.5

4.7

2.7

3 YR TREND

1.6

3.3

VULNERABILITY

2.7

Human

3.4

Natural

0.9

3 YR TREND

4.5

HAZARD & EXPOSURE

6.8

1.7

0.5

129

Ethiopia

1.4

4.4

0.1

4.5

4.4

Equatorial Guinea

2.6

4.9

0.5

0.9

52

Dominica

0.6

à à à à à æ

à à à à ä æ

187

Djibouti

æ Decreasing risk

à Stable

à à ä ä ä ä

0.3

3 YR TREND

Denmark

RANK

COUNTRY

ä Increasing risk

Socio-Economic Vulnerability

KEY

à ä ä à ä ä

1.9

0.9

6.3

7.2

3.9

2.9

5.5

4.0

4.7

4.2

5.4

3.9

5.5

3.8

7.5

à ä

8.2

6.7

4.9

7.9

ä

8.2

7.5

1.2

2.2

æ

3.1

1.3

13

6.4

à

5.4

à

3.8

6.7

6.7

ä

6.7

6.6

7.3

æ

4.7

8.8

Fiji

100

3.2

3.4

0.1

2.4

0.9

4.2

4.9

0.6

0.1

0.1

1.6

0.8

2.4

1.3

1.6

1.0

122

2.7

3.8

3.3

2.6

0.9

4.0

2.0

2.8

1.2

Gabon

129

2.6

1.5

0.2

3.0

3.0

3.0

6.3

ä ä à à

3.5

190

à à à æ

3.7

France

à à à à

5.7

Finland

à à à à

6.6

6.0

Gambia

111

2.9

à à

0.8

à à

1.4

0.1

5.5

6.7

3.9

5.4

5.9

3.7

4.5

à æ

4.9

3.9

à æ

4.6

2.2

à à ä à ä ä ä

1.8

à à à à à ä ä

2.1

1.4

2.3

2.4

0.7

1.3

1.2

3.7

5.3

1.7

1.9

1.8

0.0

2.1

6.5

1.1

5.1

3.1

3.9

5.1

1.7

0.6

6.6

à à à à ä ä æ

7.9

7.8

1.5

2.8

0.1

2.7

6.2

4.9

77

3.9

Germany

Georgia

161

1.9

Ghana

110

3.0

Greece

129

2.6

Grenada

161

1.9

Guatemala

29

5.1

Guinea

29

5.1

Guinea-Bissau

70

4.0

117

2.8

Guyana

0.1 3.6 0.9 3.8 1.3 3.7 0.9 4.3

3.5 1.2

3.0

5.7

3.5

à à ä ä ä ä ä

0.6

3.8

1.6

4.1

3.3

5.4

1.3

2.4

2.4

2.9

1.3

3.8

4.4

5.7

6.0

6.2

3.8

7.6

7.8

4.9

7.9

4.1

1.0

5.6

4.3

6.4

3.6

1.0

4.6

2.8

6.1

5.8

6.3

8.6

Haiti

18

6.0

à æ

4.6

à à

6.1

2.7

6.3

ä æ

6.9

5.6

7.6

à à

7.4

7.8

Honduras

50

4.5

ä

3.9

à

5.9

1.0

4.2

ä

4.2

4.2

5.4

ä

6.0

4.8

ä à à à

2.1

à à à à

3.5

0.4

1.7

1.8

2.1

1.3

0.9

0.7

1.0

2.0

2.1

1.8

7.8

6.9

4.7

4.0

5.3

5.1

3.8

6.1

7.4

5.5

2.8

2.4

3.1

5.2

ä à ä ä

2.8

0.0

ä à à æ

1.6

1.7

4.7

5.6

à ä ä à

4.6

à à à æ

6.7

1.4

4.4

2.9

5.6

4.9

4.0

10.0

6.1

2.4

0.1

1.3

3.3

2.4

2.3

ä ä à à

5.7

5.1

à ä ä à

à à à à à à

5.1

3.6

2.2

3.9

0.2

2.4

8.5

1.8

0.9

2.8

1.3

6.1

3.5

0.6

1.0

4.2

7.0

6.1

à ä ä ä ä æ

à ä ä à à ä

à à à à

4.7

0.1

5.2

6.3

1.8

4.0

9.1

3.6

5.9

0.4

0.7

2.6

1.4

2.2

0.5

1.6

ä à à à

6.7

4.1

ä ä à à

5.4

1.6

Hungary

154

2.0

Iceland

180

1.2

India

24

5.6

Indonesia

42

4.6

Iran

42

4.6

Iraq

6

7.2

Ireland

173

1.5

Israel

134

2.5

Italy

111

2.9

Jamaica

117

2.8

Japan

149

2.1

80

3.8

149

2.1

Kenya

16

6.2

Kiribati

50

4.5

Korea DPR

52

4.4

Jordan Kazakhstan

Korea, Republic of

167

1.7

Kuwait

154

2.0

à à à à à à ä ä à à

0.9 7.4 6.5 8.5

1.3 2.9 4.4

2.2 6.2

2.1 2.2 5.8

2.7 3.0 3.6 1.4

2.8

8.1

7.1

0.8

1.8

2.0

1.2

3.2

2.3

1.1

3.2

2.5

3.3

1.3

4.3

0.9

0.9

1.6

3.6

7.8

4.4

1.5

0.5

4.0

5.1

7.0

6.6

6.9

2.7

6.5

5.0

2.9

7.2

0.8

0.5

2.0

2.0

1.2

3.7

8.1

5.9

2.4

1.5

3.3

1.1

3.7

1.0

4.5

4.0

2.0

1.1

5.7

2.8

5.2

2.6

5.4

7.5

17

INFORM 2016

ä Increasing risk

æ Decreasing risk

3 YR TREND

Natural

Human

VULNERABILITY

3 YR TREND

Socio-Economic Vulnerability

Vulnerable Groups

LACK OF COPING CAPACITY

3 YR TREND

Institutional

Infrastructure

95

3.3

æ

3.5

à

5.4

1.1

2.3

æ

3.4

1.0

4.6

à

5.3

3.8

62

4.2

2.9

1.1

3.8

3.3

6.5

6.4

0.1

1.5

1.8

1.2

2.9

à æ

6.6

1.8

à ä

4.2

1.6

à à

4.4

170

à à

3.9

1.7

Latvia

INFORM RISK

Kyrgyzstan Lao PDR

COUNTRY

RANK

HAZARD & EXPOSURE

à Stable

3 YR TREND

KEY

1.0

Lebanon

29

5.1

6.9

8.5

4.3

2.6

2.0

1.3

5.3

6.4

4.0

6.6

à æ

5.7

1.7

ä ä

4.2

3.9

à ä

4.8

77

à ä

4.1

Lesotho

7.0

6.2

Liberia

70

4.0

à

1.1

à

1.6

0.6

7.1

æ

8.3

5.4

8.0

à

7.0

8.8

Libya

20

5.9

6.5

4.2

8.0

4.7

2.1

6.6

6.8

8.1

4.8

4.5

Liechtenstein

182

1.1

ä à

0.7

à à

1.3

0.0

1.6

ä ä

0.6

2.5

1.2

ä æ

1.5

0.9

Lithuania

174

1.4

à

0.8

à

1.5

0.1

1.3

à

1.3

1.2

2.6

æ

3.8

1.3

Luxembourg

189

0.7

à

0.2

à

0.3

0.1

1.2

æ

1.1

1.3

1.3

à

1.8

0.7

Macedonia FYR

117

2.8

2.1

1.3

2.7

2.9

3.7

2.7

5.7

0.7

4.2

5.3

3.0

7.9

Malawi

62

4.2

3.3

0.5

5.8

7.0

4.2

6.4

Malaysia

89

3.5

4.3

3.2

3.4

2.4

4.2

3.3

Maldives

138

2.4

1.9

3.4

0.0

1.8

2.6

1.0

4.1

à ä ä à à

4.6

4.9

ä à ä ä æ

2.5

35

à à à ä à

2.8

Madagascar

ä à ä ä à

10

6.6

æ

6.2

æ

3.2

8.0

6.8

æ

7.7

5.6

6.8

æ

5.9

7.6

167

1.7

à

0.9

à

1.6

0.1

2.4

à

1.7

3.0

2.3

æ

3.5

1.0

Marshall Islands

62

4.2

0.0

5.5

2.4

6.7

5.2

2.0

5.7

6.2

5.1

7.0

ä æ

7.8

4.5

ä æ

7.5

5.1

à à

3.6

29

ä æ

2.0

Mauritania

5.9

7.9

148

2.2

1.7

0.0

2.1

0.9

3.0

2.3

4.9

2.2

4.1

4.5

5.3

3.6

70

4.0

6.6

2.3

6.0

Moldova, Republic of

95

3.3

2.9

1.5

4.8

3.2

1.6

5.2

2.2

2.8

3.6

4.3

0.9

5.1

7.5

4.6

6.8

à à ä à à à à æ

3.6

35

à ä à à à ä ä æ

3.1

Micronesia

à à à à à à à ä

3.2

Mexico

à à à à à à ä à

7.7

5.5

6.0

7.0

6.2

4.8

4.5

5.5

4.6

6.3

5.3

3.0

5.9

7.2

4.2

4.1

6.0

6.1

0.5

3.5

1.4

0.9

1.3

2.1

3.9

1.8

5.5

7.4

6.0

7.9

ä ä à à ä à à à

7.6

3.4

à à à à à à à à

Mali Malta

Mauritius

Mongolia

104

3.1

Montenegro

122

2.7

Morocco

89

3.5

Mozambique

20

5.9

9

6.8

84

3.7

Nauru

129

2.6

Nepal

29

5.1

Netherlands

174

1.4

New Zealand

Myanmar

3.6 2.0 3.8

3.4 8.2

2.2 3.5 2.4 2.2 2.9 4.7

7.1

9.0

3.2

3.9

0.0

4.8

3.8

3.2

2.2

2.7

2.0

2.4

3.9

0.1

2.5

4.3

1.1

2.8

6.0

3.0

6.3

8.2

7.0

5.8

3.2

0.6

4.7

1.3

0.0

4.2

5.5

2.5

5.1

1.7

0.1

2.1

5.8

0.1

1.1

6.6

0.9

2.9

3.0

3.8

6.8

ä à ä ä à à à æ

6.0

9.1

5.2

7.3

3.2

3.3

5.7

1.9

6.1

5.8

6.2

2.9

5.6

4.8

4.7

2.4

5.6

4.5

4.4

8.4

154

2.0

Nicaragua

68

4.1

Niger

23

5.7

ä à ä ä à à à à

Nigeria

15

6.3

à

6.8

à

2.3

9.0

5.6

æ

4.1

6.8

6.6

ä

5.0

7.8

Norway

186

1.0

0.3

0.3

2.0

3.5

1.6

1.3

2.9

5.8

0.3

1.7

2.5

0.8

4.2

5.1

3.1

6.4

6.9

8.0

5.6

4.0

6.9

6.1

à ä ä

1.9

13

à à à

0.2

111

à à æ

0.2

Oman

à à à

5.5

6.6

122

2.7

à ä à à

1.2

à ä à æ

2.2

0.0

3.2

à ä à à

5.1

0.8

5.1

6.1

4.0

6.4

3.7

8.1

à à ä à

à à à

1.2

à à æ

ä à ä

3.7

1.3

4.8

2.3

4.3

4.7

2.5

5.2

4.4

à à à à ä

1.7

à à à à à

à à à à ä

1.4

2.3

2.9

1.4

1.1

2.0

2.5

0.9

2.4

1.9

1.5

3.7

2.3

4.1

4.8

Namibia

Pakistan Palau Palestine

17

6.1

Panama

84

3.7

Papua New Guinea

29

5.1

134

2.5

Peru

52

4.4

Philippines

28

5.2

Poland

149

2.1

Portugal

161

1.9

Qatar

178

1.3

Romania

111

2.9

40

4.7

Paraguay

Russian Federation

18

2.0 0.7 4.2

0.9 3.5 4.3

3.5 7.5 6.8

3.7 3.1 5.2 8.1

2.6 0.5 3.8 6.6

2.4

9.0

6.8

5.5

1.2

3.2

5.2

0.2

5.2

2.1

0.1

2.6

7.6

1.3

3.4

8.9

7.0

4.0

2.1

1.3

1.9

4.6

0.1

1.3

0.9

0.1

1.7

4.4

3.2

1.7

6.1

7.0

3.3

4.3

8.4

4.8

3.1

3.2

4.4

6.2

5.9

1.7

1.0

1.9

2.2

5.8

5.1

5.9

9.1

6.2

2.9

4.9

3.9

6.9

9.0

à ä à

5.5

4.0

4.7

4.7

4.6

4.1

à à ä ä à

4.1

1.6

2.9

1.0

3.9

0.5

4.6

2.7

6.5

2.4

ä Increasing risk

æ Decreasing risk

HAZARD & EXPOSURE

3 YR TREND

Natural

Human

VULNERABILITY

3 YR TREND

LACK OF COPING CAPACITY

3 YR TREND

Institutional

4.4

à

2.6

æ

2.9

2.2

5.9

à

6.6

5.1

5.4

à

4.1

6.5

138

2.4

1.7

0.0

2.7

0.8

2.9

2.2

1.7

3.2

0.0

2.3

3.5

0.8

3.7

à à

3.6

2.4

à æ

4.2

138

à à

3.1

Saint Lucia

à à

4.1

3.3

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

149

2.1

à

1.3

à

2.4

0.0

2.1

à

3.1

0.9

3.4

à

3.3

3.5

Samoa

144

2.3

0.0

3.9

0.4

4.4

4.1

0.1

0.0

3.8

5.6

1.4

5.7

ä ä

4.7

0.1

ä æ

6.2

1.3

à à

1.3

178

à à

0.7

Sao Tome and Principe

6.2

5.2

Saudi Arabia

138

2.4

æ

2.5

à

2.1

2.8

1.4

æ

2.0

0.7

3.9

æ

5.0

2.6

Senegal

56

4.3

2.4

2.4

5.4

4.7

6.2

7.0

4.6

1.7

4.6

2.0

6.4

4.1

5.3

2.7

144

2.3

1.3

2.4

0.0

2.7

3.9

1.2

3.6

à à à

5.3

4.0

à ä æ

6.0

70

à à à

2.4

Serbia

à à à

4.4

2.6

56

4.3

à

2.0

à

1.2

2.7

5.6

æ

7.0

3.6

7.1

à

5.3

8.3

Singapore

191

0.4

0.1

0.0

0.5

0.3

1.2

1.1

3.2

0.6

1.3

1.2

1.3

2.6

à æ

1.3

1.9

à ä

0.7

161

à à

0.1

Slovakia

à à

3.8

1.3

Slovenia

174

1.4

1.4

0.1

1.0

1.2

1.9

1.4

0.0

6.4

8.1

3.6

7.0

6.7

7.3

1

8.7

6.2

10.0

8.3

7.7

8.8

9.1

à à æ

2.3

6.4

à ä æ

0.7

5.6

à à à

2.6

24

à ä æ

9.3

8.8

80

3.8

à ä à ä à à

2.9

à à à à à à

3.5

2.2

4.0

3.4

4.5

4.6

4.7

9.0

8.2

7.8

8.6

8.9

4.4

2.4

1.4

1.1

1.7

1.9

5.3

3.4

4.0

2.7

5.1

4.4

3.5

9.0

7.1

5.4

8.3

7.3

3.0

0.0

2.1

3.0

1.1

5.0

ä ä à ä ä à

4.4

2.4

à ä à ä à æ

ä à à

1.3

ä à ä

1.8

0.8

4.0

3.4

5.6

6.1

2.6

0.5

4.3

1.4

1.9

0.9

1.8

0.9

2.1

0.5

3.5

0.9

à à æ

5.1

0.1

à à à

4.6

0.7

1.2

0.6

8.4

4.4

10.0

6.0

7.7

5.8

5.3

1.8

3.0

3.0

2.9

5.4

6.1

4.5

4.0

1.1

5.5

5.7

5.2

6.6

6.3

5.2

3.2

2.0

4.2

4.3

ä à à à

6.3

5.6

à à à à

3.6

5.8

à ä à æ

Rwanda

Seychelles Sierra Leone

Solomon Islands Somalia South Africa South Sudan

3

7.9

149

2.1

56

4.3

6

7.2

Suriname

129

2.6

Swaziland

104

3.1

Sweden

182

1.1

Switzerland

Spain Sri Lanka Sudan

3.3

2.0 3.9 8.8 6.8

3.5 4.4 7.1

1.6 0.4 1.4

174

1.4

Syria

10

6.6

Tajikistan

70

4.0

Tanzania

42

4.6

Thailand

56

4.3

ä à à à

Timor-Leste

68

4.1

à

2.0

à

3.5

0.3

4.6

æ

4.7

4.5

7.3

Togo

77

3.9

à

1.5

à

1.3

1.6

4.9

æ

5.4

4.3

8.1

Tonga

95

3.3

1.9

0.0

3.9

1.0

4.9

154

2.0

2.5

0.1

1.7

1.8

1.5

3.6

117

2.8

4.3

0.4

1.7

à ä à

5.9

Tunisia

à à æ

3.5

Trinidad and Tobago

à à æ

2.3

1.0

4.9

Turkey

40

4.7

6.3

6.7

4.9

6.5

3.3

3.6

4.5

1.3

2.4

ä ä

2.8

87

à à

5.9

Turkmenistan

à ä

2.7

2.1

6.5

104

3.1

2.0

0.0

5.2

7.5

1.3

5.6

Uganda

12

6.5

3.1

8.0

6.2

5.9

6.5

7.1

Ukraine

27

2.8

9.0

4.4

ä à ä

1.6

6.4

5.2

Tuvalu

3.9 2.7

1.4 2.6 3.1 1.0

5.4

ä à ä

6.9

à à ä

6.1

Infrastructure

3 YR TREND

52

Saint Kitts and Nevis

COUNTRY

Socio-Economic Vulnerability

INFORM RISK

Vulnerable Groups

à Stable

RANK

KEY

8.3

9.4

2.8

0.8

4.8

4.0

6.7

7.8

5.7

4.2

5.1

7.8

5.1

3.5

à

6.9

7.7

æ

8.3

7.9

ä à à

5.6

4.2

4.9

2.1

6.0

3.6

à æ

3.5

3.1

8.0

4.2

ä à æ

6.3

4.7

6.8

7.4

6.9

2.7

United Arab Emirates

154

2.0

à

3.3

à

5.4

0.4

1.1

à

1.8

0.3

2.2

æ

2.5

1.8

United Kingdom

154

2.0

2.1

2.0

2.3

3.3

1.6

1.0

7.4

5.1

2.4

1.3

3.4

2.2

2.7

1.7

Uruguay

166

1.8

1.1

0.8

1.9

2.4

1.3

2.9

3.8

2.0

Uzbekistan

95

3.3

5.9

2.8

1.8

2.0

1.6

4.4

5.1

3.7

Vanuatu

42

4.6

5.8

0.0

4.4

5.5

3.2

6.3

Venezuela

80

3.8

5.7

0.2

3.7

3.0

4.3

4.5

Viet Nam

84

3.7

7.3

3.0

1.9

2.7

1.0

4.6

5

7.5

2.7

10.0

6.6

4.8

7.9

7.9

Zambia

62

4.2

2.1

1.8

5.7

5.8

5.6

6.3

Zimbabwe

62

4.2

2.5

2.2

5.4

5.3

5.4

5.7

à à à à ä à à ä à ä

2.2

3.2

à à ä à ä à à ä à æ

1.2

100

à à à à à à à à à à

2.2

United States of America

à à à à ä à à ä à à

Yemen

6.4

1.0 4.5 3.4 3.4 5.6 8.1

2.0 2.4

5.4

7.1

5.1

3.9

5.3

3.8

8.2

7.6

4.8

7.5

5.1

6.2

19

INFORM is a collaboration of the Inter-Agency Standing Committee Task Team for Preparedness and Resilience and the European Commission. INFORM partners include:

Other INFORM partners are welcome. Partners commit to do one or more of: 1) facilitate the use of their data in INFORM, 2) provide expert guidance for the INFORM initiative, 3) provide in-kind or financial support.

For more information, go to www.inform-index.org.

Note: The geographical boundaries and names shown and the designations used in this report are not warranted to be error free nor do they necessarily imply official endorsement or acceptance by INFORM or any INFORM partner organisation. Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this report. All information was believed to be correct as of November 2015. Please check www. inform-index.org for the latest results.