RISING TO THE TOP Renowned Bloodstock-Analyst Bill Oppenheim

By Bill Oppenheim

Eight years ago, in 2012, when he had his first 4-year-olds racing, I wrote an article which predicted that Snitzel looked like he could become a major force in Australian racing. At the time I was using a method of rating sires we called APEX Ratings—basically an enhancement of the average-earnings index which suppressed the influence of one or two huge earners, by measuring the frequency with which sires produced runners who figured among the top 2% of earners in a season.

Now Snitzel, a grandson of Danehill by three-time Champion Sire Redoute’s Choice, has been Champion Sire four times, and other Champion Sires by Danehill himself, Fastnet Rock and Exceed And Excel, are similarly entering the stages of their careers where we’re analysing them as much as sires of sires and broodmare sires even as they continue to sire top racehorses. So the torch will be passed, possibly, initially, to the incredibly deserving I Am Invincible, runner-up to Snitzel for Champion Sire honours each of the last three seasons.

Unlike the Northern Hemisphere, where the emphasis is much more on 3-year-old Classic middle-distance racing, one of our key findings about Australian racing and breeding is that there has been a much heavier emphasis on shorter and earlier racing. After a lot of study, particularly of 2,777 stakes races in Australia over five-plus seasons of racing, 2015/16 through September 8, 2020, we divided the stakes races into three distance categories: short (<1200m as 2yo’s, <1400m as 3yo’s+); intermediate (exactly 1200m as 2yo’s, 1400m-1650m as 3yo’s+); and long (>1200m as 2yo’s, 1700m+ as 3yo’s+). We found the division of stakes races was 38% short (for 28% of the money), 34% intermediate (for 33% of the money), and 28% long (for 39% of the money). Yes, the lower ratio of prize money for sprint stakes can be compensated for if you hit the jackpot with a sire prospect, nonetheless it’s plain to see there are greater relative earnings opportunities, with relatively less competition, in the longer stakes races.

Against that background—38% of stakes races were at short distances, 28% at long— it’s extremely illuminating to look at the ratios for some of the top sires: Snitzel—70% short, 4.6% long; I Am Invincible—73% short, 2% long; Exceed And Excel—70% short, 2% long; Written Tycoon—61% short, 2% long. The profile is dramatic. Two top older sires in particular have relatively more balanced distance profiles: Fastnet Rock—41% short, 17% long; and Not A Single Doubt—45% short, 21% long.

So it’s quite interesting to see that the distance profiles of three of Australia’s four best ‘younger’ sires are very different from the current stars. Mind you, two of the four—So You Think, whose first Southern Hemisphere foals arrived in 2013 (we denote this, in shorthand, as F2013), and F2015 Dundeel are New Zealand-bred sons of High Chaparral, who himself, since 2015, is the sire of 56 Australian stakes winners—5% short, 34% intermediate, 61% long. The other two top young sires are F2014 Pierro and F2015 Zoustar. Pierro, who at one point led the Australian General Sire list during the 2019/20 season and ended up third on the list behind only Snitzel and I Am Invincible, was of course a Golden Slipper and 2-Year-Old Triple Crown winner, but is by Lonhro out of a Daylami mare, and has much more of a middle-distance pedigree. So far his distance ratios are: 17% short, 37% intermediate, 46% long. Of the two High Chaparral sons, So You Think is very similar to his sire (11% short, 36% intermediate, 54% long), while Dundeel brings a bit more speed (and precocity) to

Pierro

So You Think

the table: 23% short, 31% intermediate, 46% long. Zoustar is the only one of the four who has a similar profile to the current speed stars: 71% short, 25% intermediate, 4% long. The contrast could hardly be more striking, and raises the question whether Australian breeders will adjust their distance preferences to some extent because the best sires are siring more horses who win top races going long.

One other statistic, which measures precocity, is the percentage of 2yo stakes winner—11.5% for the five-plus seasons we studied. Of the older brigade: Snitzel—18.5%; I Am Invincible—19.2%; Exceed And Excel—26.7%; Written Tycoon—15.7%; Fastnet Rock—15.6%; Not A Single Doubt—20.6%. Of the younger star sires, F2014 Pierro—14.3%; F2015 Dundeel—15.4%; F2015 Zoustar—20.8%.

Of the F2016 sires, with their first 3-year-olds last season and their first 4-year-olds this season, three sires seem to have separated themselves from the pack: Brazen Beau, Deep Field, and Rubick. None of the three has yet sired a stakes winner going long, but at the time we did the calculations they had only six, seven, and five stakes wins respectively (which of course does not count Yes Yes Yes’s win in the 2019 Everest as it’s, incomprehensibly, not a stakes race). It’s too early to know about last year’s freshman sires, except to note that last season’s leader, Pride of Dubai, was also the leading second-crop sire in early October.

The overriding premise which I have come to believe after 40 years of studying sire statistics can be stated quite simply: at the end of the day, Class Trumps All. The question facing Australian breeders now is: for the moment anyway, three of the four best younger sires in Australia are not speedball sires. At least until a prospective next generation of speedball sires arrives – sons of Snitzel, I Am Invincible, Written Tycoon, etc. – will the best Australian racehorses maybe include more ‘intermediate’ distance stars than has recently been the case? *Bill Oppenheim is a world-renowned bloodstock journalist, market analyst and consultant, having worked in the industry since 1974. Emily Plant, who holds a Ph.D. from the University of Kentucky in Business Marketing, a B.S. in Business from Indiana University and an M.B.A. from Xavier University, is a young academician who works as a consultant to Bill. The pair aim to predict future sire success, having produced a consulting book Stallion Spectator Ratings for both northern and southern hemisphere stallions.

*Bill Oppenheim is a world-renowned bloodstock journalist, market analyst and consultant, having worked in the industry since 1974. Emily Plant, who holds a Ph.D. from the University of Kentucky in Business Marketing, a B.S. in Business from Indiana University and an M.B.A. from Xavier University, is a young academician who works as a consultant to Bill. The pair aim to predict future sire success, having produced a consulting book Stallion Spectator Ratings for both northern and southern hemisphere stallions.