Serie Programa Marco Ambiental N.º 11 Noviembre 2002
Ingurumen Jarduketarako Sozietate Publikoa Sociedad Pública Gestión Ambiental
Inventory of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Basque Country [1990 • 2000]
LURRALDE ANTOLAMENDU ETA INGURUMEN SAILA
DEPARTAMENTO DE ORDENACION DEL TERRITORIO Y MEDIO AMBIENTE
Environmental Framework Programme Series • Nº 1, November 2000, Economic Impact of Environmental Spending and Investment of the Basque Public Authorities • Nº 2, May 2001, Ecology Barometer 2001 • Nº 3, October 2001, The Environment in the Basque Country • Nº 4, January 2002, European Union Strategy for Sustainable Development • Nº 5, February 2002, Inventory of Hazardous Waste in the Basque Country (Outline) • Nº 6, April 2002, Cycling Towards Fume-free Cities • Nº 7, May 2002, Total Material Requirement of the Basque Country. TMR 2002 • Nº 8, July 2002, Transport and the Environment in the Basque Country. TMA Indicators 2002 • Nº 9, August 2002, Sustainable Development in the Basque Country • Nº 10, October 2002, Environmental Indicators 2002 • Nº 11, November 2002, Inventory of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Basque Country
www. Ingurumena.net Basque Government WebSite on Sustainable Development in the Basque Country
Published by: IHOBE - Sociedad Pública de Gestión Ambiental Report drawn up by: Fundación LABEIN for IHOBE, S.A. Designed by: Imprenta Berekintza Basque Translation: Elhuyar English Translation: Chris Pellow © IHOBE 2002 Registration nº: BI-2489-02
Inventory of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Basque Country [1990 • 2000]
I n d e x
I n d e x .......................................................................................................................................................................................................
1. Introduction
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1.1. Climate Change: Description
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1.2. Climate Change: International Agreements
9 11
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12
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15
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17
2. Methods 3. Results
7
3.1. Trends in GHG Emissions in the Basque Country
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18
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18
3.1.2. Trends in CO2 emissions
..........................................................................................................................
20
3.1.3. Trends in CH4 emissions
...........................................................................................................................
22
3.1.4. Trends in N2O emissions
..........................................................................................................................
23
3.1.1. Main sources of GHG emissions in the Basque Country
3.2. Trends in GHG’s in comparison to the base year
..................................................................................
3.3. Trends in GHG emissions in comparison with GDP
..............................................................................
27
...................................................................
29
................................................................
31
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35
3.5.1. Direct & indirect emissions from each sector of activity
4. Conclusions
26
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3.4. Emissions in the Basque Country compared to other countries 3.5. Trends in GHG emissions including imported electricity
24
Inventory of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Basque Country (1990 • 2000)
Presentation
Presentation
Presentation
Sabin Intxaurraga Basque Minister for Land Use and the Environment
In 1992 the international community took on this problem at the Convention on Climate Change, led by the United Nations. This was the start of a process which led to the adoption at the end of 1997 of the Kyoto Protocol, which established emission reduction targets for the first time. The Protocol urges industrialised countries to reduce overall levels of six greenhouse gases by at least 5% of 1990 levels by 2008-2012. In the Basque Country, one of the prime goals of the Basque Strategy for Sustainable Development 2002-2020 is precisely to curtail the emission of gases harmful to the atmosphere, thus helping to meet the objectives of Kyoto. This inventory of greenhouse gases has been drawn up as part of that framework. Its purpose is to gather accurate, comparable data which will help establish strategies for action to solve this problem.
The document follows the methods proposed by the United Nations, and analyses the trends in anthropogenic emissions of the main greenhouse gases over the past decade (1990 – 2000). It also looks at the economic/ consumer activities and processes which produce these gases. The report shows that over the period considered emissions increased by 25%. The report also reveals that the biggest increases in emissions took place in transport and services, electricity generation and municipal solid waste, all of which are activities linked to both production and consumption. It can be deduced from this that reducing emissions is not just a job for the public authorities, but also a shared responsibility for institutions, businesses and the general public alike. More emphasis on alternatives to fossil fuels as energy sources, and a greater rationalisation of energy consumption, more use of public transport and efforts to reduce waste on the part of all players in the economy and in society in general are needed if we are to make progress in the fight against climate change. If solutions are not found, the situation will only get worse.
Inventory of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Basque Country (1990 • 2000)
T
he effects of greenhouse gas emissions and the influence of GHG’s on climate change are causes for world-wide concern. Their concentration is resulting in everincreasing global warming, and the more quickly the climate changes the greater the risk to the environment will be.
7
Introduction
1
Introduction
There is world-wide consensus that the changes in the world’s climate observed in recent years are influenced by increases in the concentrations in the atmosphere of the so-called “greenhouse gases” (whose name derives from their influence on global warming).
Table 1 gives examples of several greenhouse gases and indicates their levels in 1750 and 1998, plus their rate of increase in the 1990’s and the time they remain in the atmosphere.
9
Inventory of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Basque Country (1990 • 2000)
Before the onset of the industrial age, levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere were more or less constant for thousands of years. Since 1750 the levels of many greenhouse gases have been rising as a direct or indirect consequence of human activities.
Table 1. Main Greenhouse Gases Chemical formula
GHG’s
Preindustrial Concentration
Growth rate over the 1990’s
Concentration in 1998
Residence time in the atmosphere Variable
Carbon Dioxide
278,000 ppbv
CO2
365,000 ppbv
1,500 ppbv/yr
Global Warming Potential (GWP)*
Anthropogenic sources - Burning of fossil
(5-200
- fuels
years)
- I and use change
1
- Production of cement, lime, etc. - Fossil fuels Methane
CH4
700 ppbv
1745 ppbv
7 ppbv/yr
12
- Rice fields
21**
- Dump sites - Livestock farms N2O
Nitrous Oxide CFC-11
270 ppbv 0
CClF3
316 ppbv
0.8 ppbv/yr
0.268 ppbv
114
-1,4 pptv/yr
45
- Fertilisers
310
- Liquid coolants
6200-7100***
- Foams HFC-23
CFCl3
0
Perfluorome thane
CF4
0.040
Sulphur hexafluoride
SF6
0
0.014 ppbv
0.55 pptv/yr
260
0.080 ppbv
1 pptv/yr
50,000
0.0042 ppbv
0.24 pptv/yr
3,200
- Liquid coolants
1300-1400***
- Aluminium production
6500
- Dielectric fluids
23900
Notes: pptv = 1 part per trillion volume; ppbv = 1 part per billion volume; ppmv = 1 part per million volume * GWP for an average half life of 100 years ** Including indirect effects of formation of tropospheric ozone & stratospheric water vapour *** Net warming potential (including indirect effects of ozone layer depletion)
Sources: UNEP/ GRID-Arendal & Climate Change 2001: “The Scientific Basis”
10
According to the third IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by 31% since 1750. The current level is unsur-
passed in the last 420,000 years, and probably in the last 20 million years. The current growth rate of CO2 has no precedent in at least the last 20,000 years.
Illustration 1. Increases in world atmospheric concentration of CO2 from the onset of the Industrial Revolution, in ppm1.
400
350 340 330
Human disturbance
350
320 310 1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
300
250
200
Atmospheric CO2 (ppmV)
Atmospheric CO2 (ppmV) Concentration (ppm)
360
150 -450
-400
-350
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
Introduction
Thousands of years Source: UNEP-GRID-Arendal
1
ppm = parts per million (ppb = parts per billion). This is the ratio of GHG or, in this case, CO2, to the total number of molecules of dry air. Thus, 300 ppm of CO2 means there are 300 molecules of CO2 per million molecules of dry air.
N2O concentration is up by 17% from 1750 levels, and it continues to increase. Such concentrations have not been attained for several thousand years. Since 1995 the concentration in the atmosphe-
1.1. Climate Change: A Description The earth absorbs radiation from the sun, mainly on its surface. The energy absorbed is redistributed by atmospheric and marine currents and radiated back out to space as infra-red radiation. Over the earth as a whole the incoming solar energy and the energy radiated back into space balance each other out. Any factor which alters how much radiation is received from the sun or radiated back into
Illustration 2. The Greenhouse Effect
re of halocarbonated gases which are both greenhouse gases and ozone-layer destroyers (CFCl2 and CF2Cl2) has been increasing more slowly, and has even dropped in some cases as a result of the regulatory measures passed in the Montreal Protocol. However the levels of the substances which have replaced them in the atmosphere (CHF2Cl and CF3CH2F) are increasing, and these are also greenhouse gases.
space, or which upsets the distribution of energy within the atmosphere or between the atmosphere, the earth and the oceans, can affect the climate. As a result, increasing levels of GHG’s in the atmosphere can be expected to lessen the efficiency with which the earth’s surface radiates energy back into space, leading to a warming of the lower atmosphere and the surface of the planet.
11
Inventory of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Basque Country (1990 • 2000)
The concentration of CH4 in the atmosphere has increased by 151% since 1750 to a level unsurpassed in the last 420,000 years.
Climate change is also highly likely to have a significant effect on the world’s environment. In general, the faster the climate changes, the greater risk there will be of damage to the environment. The characteristics of global warming which are already present at a global level include the following:
- Higher temperatures in the lower atmosphere; - Cloudier skies, with more rain and more water vapour; - Shrinkage of the thickness and the area covered by the polar ice caps and the glaciers of the Arctic; - Warming of the oceans and higher sea levels.
Illustration 3. Main consequences of climate change
12
Source: United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
Introduction
1.2. Climate Change: International Agreements Great efforts will be needed to stabilise the levels of GHG’s in the atmosphere. The international community is tackling this challenge through the Convention on Climate Change led by the United Nations. With more than 170 signatories since
its inception in 1992, this convention seeks to achieve the stabilisation of GHG levels in the atmosphere to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system. With that in mind, the developed countries undertook to individually or jointly restore 1990 levels of carbon dioxide and other GHG’s not controlled under the Montreal Protocol by 2000.
This resulted in the adoption on 11th December 1997 of the Kyoto Protocol of the UN Frame-
work Convention, in which the Parties to the Convention agreed by consensus that industrialised countries had a compulsory duty to reduce the overall levels of their six main greenhouse gases by at least 5%. For the European Union this meant an 8% reduction on 1990 levels for the period from 2008 to 2012 (though Spain was permitted a 15% increase). In the Basque Environmental Strategy for Sustainable Development 2002-2020, the Basque autonomous Community has established the curtailing of GHG’s as one of its priority goals, to help fulfil the Kyoto protocol.
13
Inventory of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Basque Country (1990 • 2000)
In its first period of sessions, the Conference of the Parties to the Convention reached the conclusion that the undertaking given by the developed countries was insufficient to achieve the long-term goal of preventing dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system. Moreover, the Conference agreed to undertake a process intended to take appropriate measures for the period following 2000 through the adoption of a protocol or some other suitable legal instrument.
Methods
2
Methods
The methods used in these estimations must be those accepted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and agreed by the Conference of the Parties in its third period of sessions. The method adopted by the Basque Country for its inventory of GHG’s is that proposed by the IPCC. The intention at all times has been to obtain valid, comparable data which will be traceable and consistent for future updates, and to establish plans and strategies for action to cut emissions. The six gases to be inventoried are: - Carbon dioxide (CO2) - Methane (CH4) - Nitrous Oxide (N2O) - Hydrofluorocarbons (HFC’s) - Perfluorocarbons (PFC’s) - Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) The source processes or sinks to be inventoried are:
1. Energy. This includes all activities related to power transmission, transformation and consumption. 2. Industrial processes. All activities which by dint of their process characteristics are sources of GHG emissions (combustion processes in industry are classed under “Energy Industries”)
15
3. Solvent & other product use. This heading covers basically NMVOC’s (non methanic volatile organic compounds) arising from the use of solvents. 4. Agriculture. Emissions from working the land, raising livestock, etc., excluding combustion processes and waste water treatment. 5. Land use change & forestry. Variations in emissions & absorption in sinks due to changes in land use and in forestry. 6. Waste. Dump sites & waste treatment. 7. Others. All sources not belonging to the above groups. Before calculations were drawn up, the data available in the BAC were analysed, as were the studies and ratios used in the European Union as a whole and in certain member states, including Spain, France and Austria. The gases which contribute most to the greenhouse effect in Spain and in the EU as a whole are CO2, CH4 and N2O4, in four sectors of activity.
Inventory of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Basque Country (1990 • 2000)
On ratifying the Kyoto protocol, each signatory must, within one year before the commencement of the first period of commitment, establish a nation-wide system for estimating anthropogenic emissions by sources and calculating the absorption capabilities of sinks for all GHG’s not controlled under the Montreal Protocol.
Illustration 4. Mean contribution of each GHG to aggregate emissions of GHG’s in the EU and in Spain from 1900 to 2000
EUROPE
N2O 9.1 %
HFC 0.9 %
CH4 9.3 %
SPAIN PFC 0.2 %
SF6 0.2 %
CH4 10.5 %
N2O 8.3 %
CO2 80.3 %
HFC 1.5 %
PFC 0.2 % SF6 0.0 % CO2 79.5 %
Illustration 5. Mean contribution of each IPCC group to aggregate GHG emissions in the EU and Spain (not counting absorption in sinks) from 1990 to 2000
EUROPE
16
Agriculture 9.6 % Use of solvents 0.2 %
Land use change & forestry 0.2 %
SPAIN
Waste 3.3 %
Land use change & forestry Waste 0.0 % 3.7 %
Use of solvents 0.5 % Industrial processes 7.8 %
Industrial processes 7.0 % Energy 79.7 %
Methods
Agriculture 11.8 %
The purpose of the inventory for the BC, whose first results are presented here, is to estimate anthropogenic emissions of CO2, CH4 and N2O in the following groups: (1) Energy; (2) Industrial Processes; (4) Agriculture; and (6) Waste. In 2000 these groups accounted between them for 96.8% of aggregate GHG emissions in Spain, and 98.2% in Europe. This first stage of the project has drawn up an inventory of emissions of the main GHG’s in the chief contributing sectors of the BAC. Future updates of the inventory will include the remaining gases and processes/ activities of lesser significance.
Energy 76.2 %
Inventories can be drawn up on the basis of measurements, but emissions were estimated here using the Revised IPCC Directives method. This method entails multiplying activity figures (quantity of fuel burned, output, fertiliser use, etc.) by general ratios which link them with the emissions which they generate, thus giving a general approximation of what is occurring. These ratios can be taken as highly accurate for CO2, as they are based on data on the carbon content of fossil fuels. However they are not so accurate for CH4, N2O and other pollutants. Therefore, specific data on facilities and activities are used wherever they are available.
Results
3
Results
The main results of the study are given below, in line with the goal of inventorying and analysing trends in anthropogenic emissions of the main GHG’s (CO2, CH4 and N2O) produced in the
Basque Country through combustion, agriculture, industrial processes and the management of municipal solid waste (MSW) between 19902 and 20003.
17 Illustration 6. Trends in GHG emissions (CO2, N2O and CH4) produced in the Basque Country (tons of CO2 equivalent) Annual trends in GHG emissions 20.000.000
16.000.000
14.000.000
12.000.000
10.000.000
8.000.000
6.000.000
4.000.000
2.000.000
0 1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
CO2 2 3
1995
1996
1997
CH4
Base year for the undertakings established in the Kyoto Protocol. The latest year for which the official data required for the inventory are available.
N2O
1998
1999
2000
Inventory of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Basque Country (1990 • 2000)
Emissions (tons of CO2 equivalent)
18.000.000
Illustration 6 and Table 2 show the trends of emissions in the Basque Country.
3.1. Trends in GHG emissions in the Basque Country
The illustration shows direct GHG’s (CO2, CH4 and N2O) in terms of tons of CO2 equivalent. Figures in tons of CH4 and N2O are converted to tons of CO2 equivalent by multiplying the product of their emissions by their global warming potentials of 21 and 310 respectively.
Aggregate GHG emissions from processes as per IPCC groups (1) Energy; (2) Industrial Processes; (4) Agriculture; and (6) Waste in the Basque Country totalled 18,500,000 tons of CO2 equivalent in 2000. This figure is up by 25.3% on emission levels in 1990, the base year for the Kyoto Protocol in regard to emissions of these gases.
In spite of their higher GWP, CH4 and N2O contribute much less to GHG emissions than CO2.
Table 2. Trends in GHG emissions (CO2, CH4 and N2O) in the Basque Country (in Gg of CO2 equivalent) GHG’s CO2
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
12.479 13.280 13.862 13.305 13.219 13.163 11.870 10.843 12.384 14.414 15.819
CH4
1.679
1.735
1.880
1.824
1.855
1.891
1.729
1.773
1.905
1.935
2.056
N2O
669
668
689
682
674
704
728
713
697
704
706
Total
18
1990
14.827 15.683 16.432 15.811 15.748 15.758 14.326 13.329 14.986 17.053 18.582
3.1.1. Main sources of GHG emissions in the Basque Country The main sources of CO2 are combustion processes (stationary and mobile) and industrial
processes (manufacture of mineral products & reduction of iron ore: the latter contributed to emissions in the BAC in the last few years of operation of the Altos Hornos de Vizcaya steel mill).
Illustration 7. Distribution of CO2 emissions in the Basque Country
CO2 1990 Mineral products 5.4 % Losses in transformation 5.2 %
Steel making & metallurgy 4.3 %
Results
Combustion 85.1 %
* The foundry industry is not included in this figure.
CO2 2000 Mineral products 5.7 % Losses in transformation 4.5 %
Steel making * & metallurgy 0.0 %
Combustion 89.8 %
The main sources of CH4 in the Basque Country are the dumping of MSW and agriculture, with
enteric fermentation and the anaerobic management of manure as significant contributors.
Illustration 8. Distribution of CH4 emissions in the Basque Country
CH4 1990 Dumps 66.0 %
Agriculture 28.0 %
Enteric frmentation 19.4 %
Stubble burning 0.5 %
Combustion 2.0 %
Losses in transformation 4.0 %
Manure management 8.1 %
CH4 2000 Agriculture 20.1 %
Losses in Transformation 4.1 %
Enteric fermentation 14.2 %
19
Stubble burning 0.5 %
Combustion 1.8 %
The main sources of N2O emissions in the Basque Country are agriculture (mainly fertiliser
Manure management 5.4 %
use on agricultural land) and the chemical industry.
Illustration 9. Distributions of N2O emissions in the Basque Country
N2O 1990 Chemical industry 43.2 %
Combustion 5.7 %
N2O 2000
Manure management 4.8 %
Agricultural land 45.9 % Stubble burning 0.4 %
Chemical industry 46.3 %
Combustion 6.2 %
Manure management 3.4 %
Agricultural land 43.6 % Stubble burning 0.5 %
Inventory of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Basque Country (1990 • 2000)
Dumps 74.0 %
where clinker production, quicklime production
3.1.2. Trends in CO2 emissions The main source of CO2 is combustion processes. This is followed by industrial activities,
and the reduction of iron ore at Altos Hornos de Vizcaya have all contributed.
Illustration 10. Trends in CO2 emissions by IPCC sectors
Anual trends in CO2 emissions by activity 18.000.000
Metric tons of CO2
16.000.000 14.000.000 12.000.000 10.000.000 8.000.000 6.000.000 4.000.000 2.000.000 0 1990
1991
1992
Energy
1993
1994
1995
Industrial Processes
1996
1997
1998
Agriculture
1999
2000
Waste
20
Table 3. Annual trends in CO2 emissions by activities (Gg CO2) CO2 Energy (IPCC 1) Industrial Processes (IPCC 2) Total
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
11,274 12,011 12,779 12,072 11,873 11,963 10,967 10,030 11,576 13,484 14,925
1,205
1,268
1,083
1,233
1,346
1,201
903
813
808
930
894
12,479 13,280 13,862 13,305 13,219 13,163 11,870 10,843 12,384 14,414 15,819
Trends in overall CO2 emissions are strongly influenced by emissions in IPCC group 1, “Energy�, which covers all stationary and mobile combustion processes, plus losses during the exploitation, transportation and transformation of fuels.
Results
1995
The IPCC method does not take into account CO2 emissions from the biomass. As part of their life cycle, plants fix CO2 from the atmosphere via photosynthesis. When a plant dies
the carbon stored in its organic matter decomposes and releases heat and CO2, which is reabsorbed in the next cycle of plant growth. If this balance is maintained there is no net increase in carbon in the atmosphere, and combustion only accelerates the natural process of decomposition. Unlike the fixed/ released carbon cycle in plant biomass, the burning of fossil fuels releases carbon which had been stored up for centuries, and results in a net increase of CO2 in the atmosphere.
Each sector contributes differently to the overall emissions. In the case of CO2 these differences depend basically on the type and quantity of fuel burned. Thus, CO2 emissions, aggregate
GHG emissions and energy consumption all show minimum levels in 1997, largely as a result of a drop in activity in the steel making and foundry sector.
Illustration 11. Sectoral trends in consumption and CO2 emissions resulting from combustion in the Basque Country (IPCC Group 1.A) Sectoral energy consumption (Basque Country)
Trend in CO2 emissions/ IPCC sector (1990 - 2000)
6000
16.000.000 14.000.000
5000 Consumption (Ktep)
12.000.000 4000 Tm
10.000.000
3000
8.000.000 6.000.000
2000
4.000.000 2.000.000
1000
0 0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
2000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Transport
Manuf. Industries & construction Other sectors
The contribution of each fuel to CO2 emissions depends on the quantity of fuel used and on its carbon content per unit of energy. That content depends in turn on the type of fuel: for instance
Processing
Manuf. Industries & construction
Transport
Other sectors
21
coal contains 30% more carbon than oil, and 60% more than natural gas, so its contribution to emissions is correspondingly higher.
Illustration 12. Trends in consumption and CO2 emissions from IPCC Group 1.A, combustion processes, per type of fuel in the Basque Country Consumption per fuel type (1990-2000)
Annual trend in CO2 emissions/ fuel type (1990-2000) 16.000.000
6000
14.000.000
5000
12.000.000 Tm CO 2
Ktep
4000
3000
10.000.000 8.000.000
2000
6.000.000
1000
4.000.000 2.000.000
0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
0 1990
Liquid fuels
Solid fuels
Gaseous fuels
Biomass
Other fuels
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
Liquid fuels
Solid fuels
Gaseous fuels
Other fuels
1998
1999
2000
Inventory of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Basque Country (1990 • 2000)
Processing
Use of renewable energy sources in the Basque Country is concentrated mainly in the paper making sector, which uses bark and black liquors, and to a lesser extent in the wood industry and the residential sector.
Between 1990 and 2000 petroleum derivatives were the most widely consumed fuels for generating energy, accounting for an average of 57% of total energy consumption. They were followed in order of importance by natural gas (which is being used more and more) and coal. Coal consumption in 1990 accounted for around 20% (including coal used to make blast furnace gas and battery gas), but by 2000 had dropped to 8% of the total fuel for energy. It is used mainly by coal-fired power plants, cement factories and the steel making and foundry industries, though these latter industries are using it less and less.
22
3.1.3. Trends in CH4 emissions The main source of CH4 emissions is the anaerobic fermentation of organic matter in biological systems. Agricultural processes such as enteric fermentation by animals (the digestive process of ruminants, in which bacteria in the stomach decompose the carbohydrate intake, end emit methane as a by-product) and the decomposition of animal droppings, plus the decomposition of degradable organic matter at MSW dumps all contribute.
Consumption of petroleum derivatives is also linked to transport and electricity generation through power stations and co-generation plants (included under Manufacturing Industries and Construction in the IPCC classification).
Other sources of methane emission in the Basque Country include fugitive emissions during the transportation and distribution of natural gas and the incomplete combustion of fuel (both included in group 1, “Energy�).
Natural gas is used mainly by industry and the tertiary sector (residential and services).
Illustration 13. Trends in CH4 emissions in the Basque Country by IPCC sectors Annual trend in CH4 emissions by activities 120.000
Tons of CH4
100.000 80.000 60.000 40.000 20.000
Results
0 1990
1991
1992 Energy
1993
1994
1995
Industrial Processes
1996
1997
Agriculture
1998 Waste
1999
2000
Table 4. Trends in CH4 emissions (Mg of CH4) by IPCC sectors CH4
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Energy (IPCC 1)
4,797
4,647
4,638
4,314
4,078
4,704
4,727
4,291
4,835
5,300
5,801
Agriculture (IPCC 4) 22,401 22,210 22,438 21,970 21,573 21,908 21,910 20,976 21,002 20,239 19,699 Waste (IPCC 6)
52,759 55,757 62,465 60,586 62,664 63,435 55,680 59,175 64,879 66,625 72,414
Total
79,958 82,614 89,541 86,870 88,316 90,047 82,317 84,442 90,715 92,164 97,914
As can be seen, the biggest contribution to methane emissions is from MSW dumps. Organic matter at dumps is decomposed by bacteria and gives off biogas (sometimes known as “landfill gas”), comprising basically CO2 and CH4. The IPCC method does not count carbon dioxide from decomposition of organic matter at dump sites or from biogas combustion as net emissions. Instead it considers them as originating in a natural process which is the inverse of photosynthesis and therefore does not increase the net carbon content in the atmosphere, as the
CO2 is reabsorbed by plants in the next growth cycle, provided a sustainable balance is maintained.
3.1.4. Trends in N2O emissions
cially as regards emissions arising from the use of synthetic and organic fertilisers), the industrial production of nitric acid and combustion processes, particularly from mobile sources.
The main anthropogenic sources of N2O in the Basque Country are agricultural land (espe-
The contribution of MSW dumps is increasing slightly, even though the biogas plants now operating – Artigás (1992), San Markos (1995) and Sasieta (2000) – have helped bring down emissions by more than 20,000 tons to date. As indicated above, CO2 emissions from biogas combustion are not counted in the IPCC method.
23
Annual trend in N2O emissions by activities 2.500
Tons of N2O
2.000
1.500
1.000
500
0 1990
1991 Energy
1992
1993
1994
1995
Industrial Processes
1996
1997
1998
Agriculture
1999
2000
Waste
Inventory of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Basque Country (1990 • 2000)
Illustration 14. Trends in N2O emissions in the Basque Country by IPCC sectors
Table 5. Trends in N2O emissions (Mg of N2O) by IPCC sectors N2O
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Energy (IPCC 1)
123
121
128
130
129
133
118
104
112
133
147
Industrial Processes (IPCC 2)
931
941
951
964
976
989
1,002
1,015
1,027
1,040
1,053
Agriculture (IPCC 4)
1,103
1,093
1,145
1,106
1,069
1,150
1,228
1,182
1,111
1,097
1,079
Total
2,158
2,155
2,223
2,200
2,175
2,272
2,347
2,300
2,250
2,270
2,279
Emissions from agricultural land are the result of nitrification (microbial aerobic oxidation of ammonium to nitrate) and denitrification (anaerobic reduction of nitrate to dinitrogen gas). Nitrous oxide is an intermediate gas in the reaction sequences of both processes, and leaks off the walls of microbes into the atmosphere. In most agricultural land N2O formation intensifies when the nitrogen available increases, thus also increasing the amount of nitrification and denitrification.
The main industrial source of N2O in the Basque Country lies in secondary reactions during the production of nitric acid. 3.2. Trends in GHG’s in comparison with the base year Annual trends in anthropogenic emissions of GHG’s in the Basque Country (CO2, CH4 and N2O) are as follows, taking 1990 as the base year.
24
Illustration 15. Annual trends in aggregate GHG emissions in the Basque Country in comparison with the base year
Percentage of change in GHG emissions in comparison to base year
30%
25.32%
25% 20%
15.01%
15% 10%
10.82% 5.77%
6.64%
6.21%
6.28%
5%
1.07%
0% -5%
-3.38%
-10%
-10.10%
-15%
Results
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
The biggest contributors to the increase in emissions in the Basque Country from 1990 to
2000 are the following:
Illustration 16. Absolute changes in GHG emissions in the Basque Country in 2000 comparatively to those in 1990. BASQUE COUNTRY 1.A.3. Transport (CO2) 1.A.1. Energy Industries (CO2) 1.A.4. Other Sectors (CO2) 6.A. Waste (CH4) 1.B.1. Crude oil & natural gas (CO2) 2.A. Mineral products (CO2) 2.B. Chemical industry (N2O) 1.B.1. Crude oil & natural gas (CH4) 1.A.3. Transport (N2O) 1.A.1. Energy Industries (N2O) 1.A.2. Manufacturing industries & construction (N2O) 4.B. Manure Management (N2O) 4.B. Manure Management (CH4) 4.A. Enteric fermentation (CH4) 1.A.2. Manufacturing ind. & construction (CO2) 1.B.1. Solid fuels (CO2) 2.C. Metal production (CO2)
-750
-250
250
750
1.250
1.750
25
Absolute change in Gg of CO2 equivalent
Sectors in the Basque Country with the greatest variation in emissions from 1990 to 2000 1.A.3. 1.A.1. 1.A.4. 6.A. 1.B.1. 2.A. 2.B. 1.B.1. 1.A.3. 1.A.1. 1.A.2. 4.B. 4.B. 4.A. 1.A.2. 1.B.1. 2.C.
Transport (CO2) Energy Industries (CO2) Other Sectors (CO2) Waste (CH4) Crude oil & natural gas (CO2) Mineral products (CO2) Chemical industry (N2) Crude oil & natural gas (CH4) Transport (N2O) Energy Industries (N2O) Manufacturing industries & construction (N2O) Manure Management (N2O) Manure Management (CH4) Enteric fermentation (CH4) Manufacturing ind. & construction (CO2) Solid fuels (CO2) Metal production (CO2)
Absolute variation Gg (thousands of tons) 1,892 1,330 579 413 386 223 38 18 5 5 -5 -9 -26 -33 -220 -317 -535
Relative variation 70.6% 55.5% 53.1% 37.3% 125.6% 33.3% 13.1% 27.0% 78.4% 71.7% -23.3% -27.2% -18.9% -10.1% -4.9% -94.6% -100.0%
Inventory of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Basque Country (1990 • 2000)
Table 6. Absolute & relative changes in emissions of key source processes in the Basque Country from 1990 to 2000
Overall GHG emissions in the Basque Country are increasing due to increases in emissions from transport, the service sector and electricity generation. This latter increase is due to increa-
sed demand for electricity in industry and among end consumers in the service and residential sectors.
Illustration 17. Trends in GHG emissions in the Basque Country, in Spain and in the EU compared to the Kyoto targets for Spain and the EU. 140 133.71%
135 130
125.32%
1990 = 100
125 120 115 110 105 100
96.47%
95 90 85 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Kioto target for EU 15 Path to Kyoto target for Spain Path to Kyoto target for EU
GHG Index for Spain GHG Index for EU 15 GHG Index for Basque Country Kyoto target for Spain
26
3.3. Trends in GHG emissions in comparison with GDP
rative variation between them.
The graph below shows the trend of emissions, that of gross domestic product and the compa-
GDP increased to above 1990 levels in all the years considered.
Illustration 18. Indices of GHG emissions, GDP4 of the Basque Country and ratio of emissions (including imported electricity) to GDP 150 140
1990 = 100
130 120 110 100 90 80 70
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
Index of trend in GDP
Results
Index of trend in GHG emissions originating in the Basque Country Index of trend in GHG emissions originating in the Basque Country compared to GDP
4
GDP at constant prices, taking 1995 as the base year.
1999
2000
The lowest point on the index showing trends in emissions is in 1997. This is due mainly to the closure of the Altos Hornos steel mill, which was a major consumer of fossil fuels and therefore a large-scale emitter. After that year the index rose again due to continuous increases in emissions from services, transport and electricity generation in response to greater demand from end consumers. Both emissions and GDP have increased since 1996, but the rate of increase is faster for emissions. The increase in GAV (Gross Added Value) in industry from 1996 to 2000 is greater than that in the service sector, but it is the latter that contributes most to the GDP of the Basque Country. However the service sector does not have such a high level of fuel consumption as industry, and as a result emissions are increasing faster than GDP. De-linking from economic growth is observable from 1993 to 1997, when emissions actually
dropped, but the link grows closer again from 1997 to 2000, and the gradient is actually steeper for emissions than for GDP.
3.4. Emissions in the Basque Country compared to other countries Although there are slight variations from year to year, the general picture is that in 2000 fossil fuel consumption accounts for 77% of GHG emissions in the Basque Country, 75% in Spain and 79% in the 15 EU countries as a whole. If CO2 alone is considered, combustion processes account for 90% of all emissions in the Basque Country, 92% in Spain and 94% in the 15 EU countries as a whole. The cement industry and mineral products are the next biggest industrial sources of CO2 emissions: in the Basque Country they account for 6% of the total, in Spain 7% and in the 15 EU countries 5%.
Illustration 19. Mean distribution of GHG emissions in the EU, Spain and the Basque Country from 1990 to 2000 by IPCC sectors
EUROPE Land use change & forestry 0.2%
SPAIN Agriculture 11.8%
Waste 3.3%
Solvent use 0.2%
Solvent use 0.5%
Industrial processes 7.0%
Industrial processes 7.8%
Energy 79.7%
BASQUE COUNTRY Agriculture 4.6% Waste 7.5% Industrial processes 8.4%
Energy 79.5%
Land use change & forestry 0.0%
Waste 3.7%
Energy 76.2%
Inventory of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Basque Country (1990 • 2000)
Agriculture 9.6%
27
The bar graph below compares per capita GHG emissions in the Basque Country with those elsewhere, expressed in tons of CO2 equivalent. To make the figures comparable, only emissions of CO2, CH4 and N2O in each country are counted (i.e. absorption in sinks is not included).
In the case of the Basque Country two series are given: the first shows the tons of GHG’s produced per capita in the Basque Country, and the second includes not only emissions produced within the Basque Autonomous Community itself but also potential emissions from electricity imports.
Illustration 20. Per capita GHG emissions in 1990 and 1999 (this comparison covers only emissions of CO2, CH4 and N2O and does not take into account absorption in sinks) Per capita GHG emissions in EU countries (1990-1999)
Tons of CO2 equivalent per capita
30 25 20 15 10 5
15 EU
Sp ai n
(in c. Co el un ec try tri ci ty im po rts )
Ba sq ue
Fr an ce
ria st Au
Sw ed en
co un try
1999
Ba sq ue
1990
Po rtu ga l
Ita ly Lu xe m bo Th ur g e Ne th er la nd s
Ire la nd
G re ec e
G er m an y
Fi nl an d
De nm ar k
Be lg iu m
Un ite d
28
Ki ng do m
0
Source: Own data based on studies submitted by UNFCC countries Note: emissions for both years are divided by the nº of inhabitants in 1996
Results
Per capita emissions in the Basque Country are among the lowest anywhere in the EU, but this is largely due to the fact that although the Basque Country is a major electricity consumer it is far from being able to supply all its own requirements and must therefore import electricity. That imported electricity does not produce emissions at the point of consumption, but does produce them at the point of generation if it is produced using fossil fuels. If electricity imports are taken into account per capita emission levels in the Basque Country (see “Basque
Country inc. electricity imports” on the graph) are similar to those in Germany and Greece for 1999 and to those in France and Greece for 1990. A comparison of the contribution of emissions from combustion in the Basque country and in Spain reveals that levels are more or less steady from 1990 to 1995, and drop in 1996 with falling fuel consumption, reaching their lowest level in 1997 before beginning to climb again in the following years.
Illustration 21. Contribution of GHG emissions in the Basque Country to emissions in Spain as a whole.
6% 5% 4% 3% 5.2%
5.3%
5.5%
5.4%
5.2%
5.0%
4.6%
2%
4.4%
4.6%
4.8%
4.0%
1997
1998
1999
2000
1% 0%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
Source: Own data and date for Spain from the study submitted by Spain to the UNFCC5.
3.5. Trends in GHG emissions including imported electricity
transformation involved in the processes generally requires fossil fuels to be consumed, and therefore gives rise to emissions of GHG’s at the point of origin.
Estimates of emissions from combustion processes which occur in the Basque Country do not take into account the combustion involved in generating imported electricity: the energy
The illustration below shows the trends in electricity imports into the Basque Country.
29 Illustration 22. Energy consumption and electricity imports Sectoral energy consumption (Basque Country)
1.200 6000
600
3000
400
2000
200
1000 0 1990
5
0 1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
Transformation Transport
Manufacturing Industries & Construction
Electricity imports in Ktep
Other sectors
2000
GHG emissions in Spain are being compared (CO2, CH4, N2O, PFC’s, HFC’s and SF6), excluding CO2 sink absorption as per Group 5.
Inventory of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Basque Country (1990 • 2000)
Consumption in Ktep
800 4000
Ktep of imported electricity
1.000 5000
The bar graph in the illustration below shows that maximum levels for transformation coincide practically with the minimum levels of electricity imports. This implies that in those years in which less energy transformation for electricity takes
place, and therefore less fuel is required, emissions in the BAC are lower, electricity imports are higher and therefore emissions at the point of origin outside the BAC are higher.
Illustration 23. Trends in GHG emissions in the Basque Country taking emissions due to electricity imports into account.
Thousands of tons of CO2 equivalent
25.000
20.000
15.685
15.000 13.923
14.725
14.582 14.614
14.583
13.969
14.004 13.321
12.374
13.396
10.000
5.000 4.724
4.998
5.076
904
958
1990
1991
4.899 4.552
4.592
1.850
1.198
1.165
1992
1993
1994
30 0
1.754
1995
4.338
5.311
3.084
2.896
1999
2000
4.644
4.376
5.134
1.005
955
1.590
1996
1997
1998
Generation of electricity & heat Electricity imports Other activities
Table 7. Emissions occurring in the Basque Country and those associated with electricity imports (Gg of CO2 equivalent) 1990 Total in Basque Country Electricit y imports
Results
Total
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
14,827 15,683 16,432 15,811 15,748 15,758 14,326 13,329 14,986 17,053 18,582
4,998
5,076
4,724
4,552
4,592
4,899
4,376
5,134
4,644
4,338
5,311
19,825 20,759 21,155 20,363 20,340 20,657 18,702 18,464 19,631 21,391 23,893
The data on GHG emission trends in comparison to the base year obtained from the graph
and table above can be summed up as follows:
Illustration 24. Change from base year levels for aggregate direct & indirect GHG emissions (including electricity imports) in the Basque Country in percentage terms 30% 25%
20.52%
20% 15% 10% 5%
4.71%
7.90%
6.71% 2.71%
2.60%
4.20%
0%
-0.98%
-5% -10%
-5.66%
-6.87%
1996
1997
-15%
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1998
1999
2000
3.5.1. Direct & indirect emissions from each sector of activity
bustion processes are included in the activities
To date our sectoral classification has followed the IPCC guidelines. But if emissions from com-
Energy, the effect of each activity on total emis-
where they take place rather than under sions can be seen.
Illustration 25. Direct emissions6 of GHG’s by activities 25.000.000
31
15.000.000
10.000.000
5.000.000
0
1990
6
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
Energy
Transport
Services
Industry
Residential
Agriculture
1998
Direct emissions are those arising from the process carried out on the site where combustion takes place.
1999
Waste
2000
Inventory of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Basque Country (1990 • 2000)
Tons of CO2 equivalent
20.000.000
Illustration 26. Direct emissions occurring in the Basque Country plus direct and indirect emissions in the Basque Country (including electricity imports)
Direct GHG emissions 25.000.000
Tons of CO2 equivalent
20.000.000 8.2%
15.000.000
6.5%
6.6%
4.7%
8.0% 7.5% 7.5%
8.0%
8.4%
8.5%
7.8%
7.8%
7.3%
4.8%
4.3%
4.6%
6.8%
6.9%
7.4%
9.1% 8.2%
4.2% 4.5%
4.2%
10.000.000
8.2%
18.0%
8.4%
16.5%
17.5%
17.9%
5.0%
5.2%
20.5%
24.7% 8.4%
17.9%
7.4% 9.3%
5.5%
18.2%
5.2% 22.4%
21.6% 23.8%
25.5%
35.5% 39.1%
5.000.000
37.9%
24.3%
34.4%
37.3%
26.8%
40.4%
30.8% 27.2%
32.2% 21.0%
22.5%
26.3%
23.2%
25.8%
23.1%
23.7%
24.2%
1996
1997
29.7%
26.9%
0 1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
Energy
Transport
Services
Industry
Residential
Agriculture
1998
1999
2000
Waste
32 Direct and indirect GHG emissions 25.000.000 6.4% 5.1%
Tons of CO2 equivalent
20.000.000
5.6% 5.6% 3.3%
5.6%
5.3%
6.2%
6.5%
5.3% 3.4%
3.6%
6.1%
6.1%
4.2%
4.1%
4.8%
7.7%
7.3%
7.4%
8.3%
13.9%
6.5%
14.2%
13.9%
13.1%
13.9%
5.8%
5.3% 6.9%
5.6% 6.3%
8.6%
7.5%
15.000.000
6.4%
6.2%
7.9%
6.7%
5.7%
6.5%
6.5%
6.1%
5.3%
8.3%
4.9%
5.4%
8.2%
7.9%
13.9%
19.6%
7.9%
16.7% 16.9%
17.5% 17.6%
10.000.000 47.8% 49.5%
46.8%
47.1%
46.7%
39.8%
46.3%
41.5% 40.7%
39.7%
40.2%
5.000.000
14.5%
15.7%
15.2%
1990
1991
1992
15.5%
15.5%
15.5%
16.5%
16.5%
16.5%
15.6%
15.5%
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Results
0 1993
Energy
Transport
Services
Industry
Residential
Agriculture
Waste
Note: Emissions from the energy sector include emissions from refineries and losses in transportation and distribution of both fossil fuels and electricity.
Direct emissions from the energy sector include emissions of GHG’s during the generation of electricity (thermo-electric plants, co-generation and biogas plants), refineries and fuel transformation. As can be observed, the energy sector has considerably increased its emissions from 1990 levels. But if these emissions produced during electricity generation in the Basque Country and at the point of origin of imported electricity are distributed according to the end consumption of electricity and heat, the trend revealed is different. As shown in the illustrations below, the increase in emissions from electricity generation is due to increasing demand for electricity from industry, services and the residential sector.
Disaggregating the direct and indirect emissions from those industries which consume most energy in the Basque Country, the overall trend is as per illustration 27 below. The importance of the steel making and foundry, metal processing, paste and paper, cement, rubber derivatives and glass industries is significant. Between them they account in 2000 for 70% of final energy consumption by industry. The high energy consumption of these five industries and the emissions associated with their production processes (mineral and chemical industries), any variation in their output is reflected in consumption and emissions from industrial processes, and in total emissions in the Basque Country.
Illustration 27. Trends in direct and indirect emissions from industry in the Basque Country Direct GHG emissions 12.000.000
Tons of CO2 equivalent
10.000.000
33 8.000.000 Steel making & foundries Chemical industry
6.000.000
Rubber Cement & lime Machinery & metal products
4.000.000
Construction Glass Paper & card
2.000.000
0 1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Direct and indirect GHG emissions 12.000.000
Tons of CO2 equivalent
10.000.000
8.000.000
Steel making & foundries
6.000.000
Chemical industry Rubber Cement & lime Machinery & metal products
4.000.000
Construction Glass Paper & card
2.000.000
Rest
0 1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Inventory of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Basque Country (1990 • 2000)
Rest
Conclusions
4
Conclusions
change is not something for the future: it is a fact. Almost all human activities generate GHG’s, so population growth and the current economic system are the two biggest variables in this global problem.
obvious. If measures are not taken its effects will worsen over time and it will be too late to prevent some of its consequences.
3. The
2. The
fight against climate change cannot be put off until its effects are
search for solutions and the taking of action must be worldwide, and must involve all states. The Kyoto protocol establishes a basis for tackling this challenge properly.
Trends in GHG emissions in the Basque Country, GDP of population, energy consumption and GHG emission per capita in comparison with EU 15 150
Per capita GHG emissions in the Basque Country
12 Per capita GHG emissions in the EU
140 10
Per capita GHG emissions in the Basque Country including electricity imports
130 8
GDP
6
100 4 90
Toneladas pe cápita
1990 = 100
120
110
GHG emissions in the Basque Country
Trends in energy consumption
Trends in population
2 80 GHG emissions including electricity imports
70
0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
1990
1999
35
GHG emissions including electricity imports by GDP
Inventory of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Basque Country (1990 • 2000)
1. Climate
4. The response to climate change should not come exclusively from institutions. Each individual has their personal responsibility, and can help to reduce energy consumption in their home, in transport and in their workplace.
5. In our country one of the five priority goals laid down for the coming years in the Basque Environmental Strategy for Sustainable Development 2002 – 2020 is the curtailing of GHG emissions to help fulfil the Kyoto protocol.
6. Emissions of the main GHG’s generated
in the Basque Country total 18.6 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent. This figure is up by 25% on the level for 1990. (The increase in Spain as a whole is 33.7%).
7. If we take into account that the Basque
Country imports a great deal of electricity which also produces emissions, the sum total of emissions inside and outside the
Conclusions
36
BC attributable to our social and economic activities is 23.9 million tons of CO2 equivalent, an increase of 20.5% on 1990 levels.
8. Bearing in mind total sectoral energy consumption, the biggest increases in emissions over the last 10 years have come in transport, energy transformation, services and domestic consumption.
9. Per
capita GHG generation from the social and economic activities of the BAC is close to the European average level. The figure is down from 1990 levels in terms of CO2 equivalent per unit of GDP.
10. In the face of climate change, the fun-
damental lines for action by the Basque Government must be transport policy, energy generation, energy efficiency (especially in industry) and the fostering of energy saving in all sectors of activity.