Deeper thinking

Relocation, relocation: Grantham shows that retreat from floodplains is possible L ockyer Valley Regional Council Mayor Tanya Milligan has seen her region flooded multiple times, was involved in the landmark relocation of Grantham in 2011 and has been fortunate as rising waters have stopped short within centimetres of the front door.

The record flooding and rainfall catastrophe this year has affected a swathe of Queensland and NSW, with Lismore and other communities now dealing with questions similar to those faced by the small town of Grantham a decade ago.

“It is heartbreaking. I have been in local government since 2000 and I have certainly had my fill of floods and bushfires,” Ms Milligan tells Insurance News.

“It is a really difficult space for not just communities that have experienced the loss and trauma of such an event, but you have to acknowledge too it is hard for those people who are on the ground trying to assist and to get people back on their feet. It is a hard space all round for everybody.”

The relocation of Grantham in 2011 came after more than 100 properties were destroyed and damaged as a torrent termed an inland tsunami swept buildings from foundations. A 935-acre site on higher ground was purchased, voluntary property land-swaps organised, and the federal and state governments tipped in $18 million in a project hailed for its speed and successful delivery.

Managed retreat, a controversial option in flood mitigation, has gained prominence again as this year’s events add urgency to questions about the best way to rebuild after catastrophes and how Australia should prepare for the future.

Insurance Council of Australia (ICA) data shows flood claims have cost more than $22 billion since 1970, with this year’s record-breaking events driving more than $4.3 billion of the total. Nationally, about one million properties are estimated to be flood prone.

In Lismore, some 3045 residential, commercial and industrial buildings were directly affected by abovefloor inundation when the February 28 floods hit, a city council discussion paper says. Parts of the city were under water again weeks later and wet weather has persisted.

“We simply can’t continue to repair and rebuild. The cost of these events is massive and therefore we need to do something about it,” Lismore City Council General Manager John Walker told a community meeting last month. “It’s time for a rethink about how we adapt, mitigate and live with the flood risk.”

Climate change is leading to more extreme and frequent rain events, and the city is becoming uninsurable, with consequences for residential areas, business confidence and investment, he says.

The council discussion paper has proposed a retreat from high-risk residential areas in North and South Lismore. Mitigation to protect the central business

Where and how to rebuild are critical questions following this year’s recordbreaking floods

By Wendy Pugh

district and investigation of a new commercial precinct are also among a suite of suggested responses.

Land-swaps could require at least $400 million in funding, Mr Walker told the meeting. The council is in contact with state and federal governments and is canvassing views, as a new Northern Rivers Reconstruction Corporation (NRRC) swings into action.

ICA Chief Executive Andrew Hall says there’s a window of opportunity for Lismore to become a model for adaptation for the whole country and decisions made now will have implications for other flood-prone regions.

“We can already see that it would just be a mistake if businesses and homes that have flooded several times now in the last 20 years were allowed to rebuild in the same location because it is just perpetuating a cycle of loss and harm,” he tells Insurance News. “I think while it is front of mind like this, it is critically important that we make different decisions to drive different outcomes.”

The experience of Grantham and the rebuilding of Christchurch after the New Zealand earthquakes provide insights into responses that can be achieved after such catastrophes, he says.

The NRRC will work with councils and communities, have the power to acquire or subdivide land and speed building and planning proposals, and will liaise with the insurance, construction and infrastructure sectors.

Mr Hall says it needs to act quickly because “decisions are being made now on rebuilds and on cash settlements and all sorts of things that are hard to reverse moving forward”.

This year’s flooding started days after ICA released an election campaign platform pushing for federal mitigation spending of $200 million a year over the next five years, matched by local and territory governments, and other resilience action.

ICA at the same time released a proposed funding program developed with actuarial consultancy Finity that pointed to risks faced by Lismore and a number of regional towns and cities.

“There’s every chance that what we are seeing in Lismore will play out in one of those other communities,” Mr Hall says. “La Nina is here at the moment and is hanging around, so we could very well have some repeat performances on our hands over the next 12 months.”

The newly elected Labor Federal Government has committed to mitigation spending, while land use planning and building standard reforms remain a work in progress. Improved national data sharing and a co-funded program to identify and mitigate legacy issues within existing building stock are also proposed by insurers.

ICA says the Federal Government should partner with states and territories and the Australian Local

Alternative solutions: Lockyer Valley Mayor Tanya Milligan says like-for-like replacement doesn’t always cut it

Government Association to review land planning arrangements, with mitigation and disaster impacts a necessary focus at the time of approvals.

Longstanding challenges in achieving change include divided responsibilities through levels of government, while local councils, which have a crucial role, are often under-resourced.

Floodplain Management Australia (FMA) President Ian Dinham says in some scenarios local councils are left to deal with the consequences and financial burdens of decisions made at higher levels

“Sometimes land is released by the state government and councils then have no choice but to deal with it because developers want to develop, so councils find themselves the ham in the sandwich,” he tells Insurance News.

“If you suddenly say to people you can’t build on that block of land that you own, they go to the media or go to their lawyers and the council is then dragged into a dispute and it costs money in itself.”

FMA, which includes local governments, catchment authorities, agencies, businesses and professionals promotes mitigation measures, such as house raising and levees, as well as improvements in land use planning, emergency responses, and community awareness.

“We need to create safer, stronger communities, we need to build back smarter instead of just building exactly where we were and suffering the same thing again,” Mr Dinham says.

Insurers and flood professionals say planning standards based on the traditional 1-in-100-year threshold, are not adequately protecting communities, and climate change will heighten the need to look more closely at local risks and impacts.

In the Hawkesbury-Nepean Valley, inundated again this year, there’s a vast difference between a 1-in-100-year event and the probable maximum flood – a measure that Mr Dinham says elevates “all of the factors involved in an event to come up with the worst-possible flood mother nature can throw at us”.

Critics say the 1-in-100-year terminology also gives the impression that once a flood happens it is unlikely to occur again for another 99 years. More properly described, the 1% annual exceedance probability means a 1% chance of such an event happening each year, but even that wording can be misleading.

Mr Hall told an annual forum last year that there are no simple answers to legacy planning issues, and communities face difficult conversations.

Hawkesbury-Nepean Valley debate continues over a proposal to raise the height of the Warragamba Dam wall to protect properties, as the NSW Government grapples with land development and housing pressures driven by Sydney’s western expansion.

The Lockyer Valley, described as one of the ten most fertile valleys in the world due to alluvial soils supporting horticultural and other agricultural production, also continues to grapple with the issues.

Ms Milligan says the Grantham relocation cost a total of $30 million and the council still owes $6.3 million. Since then, it has developed a file of solutions to reduce risk across the region, but with a small budget it needs assistance from government agencies to put plans into effect.

“I would welcome governments, stakeholders, sitting down and saying ‘well what have you got ready to go, talk us through how we could better put in flood mitigation for your community’,” she says.

“If we are smart, we need to invest upfront early into flood mitigation, and assisting small communities like ours, and there are plenty of us out there, will save the government money ultimately.”

“If we are smart, we need to invest upfront early into flood mitigation, and assisting small communities like ours ... will save the government money ultimately.”

Ms Milligan says there are many layers to flooding issues, including around the future use of vacated areas, while lessons have been learned by authorities on building back to more resilient standards.

“In 2011 you just built back like-for-like, so if you lost a causeway, it was just built back as exactly what was there, which for ourselves as a council and as a community was just ludicrous,” she says. “That rang true come 2013 because some of those things that we had to build back like-for-like were washed away again.”

Risk Frontiers and the James Cook University Cyclone Testing Station say in a report for ICA that improved building design standards are important for household resilience, and more research is required into the best measures for flooding.

The typical house that experienced damage in the 2019 Townsville floods was a single storey, reinforced concrete block/ brick structure, sitting on a slab with an average floor height of 200 mm above the ground.

Once flood water reaches over the floor height, most of those properties require a complete strip out of wall linings and replacement of cabinetry and floor linings, including tiles, and claims associated with flooding are generally high, the report says.

Despite that, IAG says an Australian Building Code Board standard issued for new construction in floodprone areas is less stringent compared with specifications for bushfire-prone areas.

“Bushfire construction requires the builder or landowner to undergo a Bushfire Attack Level (BAL) assessment, which instructs what materials can be used, what orientation and siting and what construction methodology are required to comply to the BAL assessed levels,” it says. “We believe flood prone areas should have a similar assessment or requirement incorporated into the building code.”

ICA is also pushing to amend the National Construction Code, which sits across state and territory codes, so resilience is added as a core objective, alongside the existing focus areas of health and safety; amenity and accessibility; and sustainability.

“We have entered this debate in the last 18 months in the full knowledge that this is going to take a number of years to be able to bring forward to an outcome,” Mr Hall says. “What has happened with this rain event, particularly in the Northern Rivers, has brought home the urgency for this as an objective.”

As debate continues, the NSW Government has commissioned an independent inquiry to look at issues arising from the floods, while a NSW Parliament Select Committee is also reviewing the disaster response.

The inquiry’s terms of reference include influences from climate change and human activity, and the door is open for it to make recommendations on planning and building standards, both for existing and future developments in flood prone locations.

North of the border, the Queensland Reconstruction Authority, created after the 2011 floods as the lead agency for disaster recovery and resilience, is involved in a $741 million resilient homes fund, backed by the state and federal governments, to assist people whose homes have been damaged.

Flood-affected residents within eligible areas who are interested in a voluntary buy-back, house raising or retrofitting for resilience following the floods have been invited to register their details.

ICA says there are complex issues to work through to better prepare for major flooding in future, but unless stronger homes are located in the right places, extreme events will continue to cost taxpayers millions of dollars and communities will continue to experience trauma.

“There has been traditionally some concern that when you put in resilience and you increase standards and the like, that it flows through to costs,” Mr Hall says. “But ultimately we are paying those costs anyway because homes are being badly damaged and homeowners, particularly if they don’t have insurance, can suffer really catastrophic financial consequences.” 0