3 Pupil learning, background, and home support

3.1 Overall programme goals and expectations of change in pupil learning by endline

The overall goal of EQUIP-T is to achieve better learning outcomes at primary level, especially for girls. Figure 3 shows how the results (intermediate outcomes) from the five programme components covered in this quantitative part of the endline evaluation are intended to contribute to the programme’s desired outcomes (better quality education, especially for girls, and higher retention) and impact (better learning outcomes, especially for girls, for an increasing number of pupils). The arrows beside the components indicate that they are intended to be mutually reinforcing in leading to better quality education, and to result in greater change than if they were implemented in isolation.

The main assumptions underpinning the high-level theory of change are that key demand-side conditions, such as regular pupil attendance, do not worsen and do not pose overwhelming barriers that reduce, or negate, the effects of the programme interventions. In some cases the programme is actively seeking to influence these conditions – for example, in improving access to pre-primary education.

Intermediate outcomes Outcomes Impact

 Improved teacher performance (1A)

 Stronger SLM (2A), and SIS (2B)

 Greater community participation and accountability (4A)

 More conducive learning environment for girls and other marginalised children (4B)

Intermediate outcomes to outcome assumptions

 Socioeconomic home conditions do not worsen

 Pupils are schoolready, after attending preschool

 Pupil enrolment and attendance is high

 There is support at home for school work

 There is a positive parental attitude to education for girls and other marginalised children

Better quality education, especially for girls

 Positive, inclusive, and girl-friendly learning environment in schools

 Higher retention rates, especially for girls

Outcomes to impact assumptions

 Conducive demand-side conditions (see previous assumptions)

Better learning outcomes, especially for girls

 Improved early grade learning outcomes

 Improved Standard 4 pass rate

 Higher completion rates, especially for girls

 Higher transition rates to secondary education, especially for girls

Source: OPM (2018) (Endline evaluation matrix (partial), see Annex C). Notes: (1) This is a partial high-level results chain, which covers programme components covered by the quantitative endline evaluation. It also excludes the institutional strengthening aspect of the theory of change, whereby the programme seeks to support national adoption of successful aspects of the EQUIP-T programme. (2) The indicators and assumptions in italics are not being measured in the impact evaluation quantitative survey.