simon says...
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hose of us who are, or who have been, professional handicappers in the European sense of the word tend to view the annual unveiling of official ratings at the World’s Best Racehorse Rankings with mixed feelings. On the one hand, it is gratifying that the discipline – an arcane and private one for much of the time – gets its moment in the spotlight. On the other, it does seem to encourage some to make sweeping comments on matters about which they have only a passing knowledge. Ratings are among horseracing’s unique strengths. They enable comparison between horses who have never met – both in the here and now and over history – and in the process can enhance enjoyment and understanding. No other sport has that to the same degree. It is certainly possible to quibble over some of the conclusions and methodologies – as I will go on to do! – but the general benefits of such an advanced system should be indisputable, while an understanding that ratings are rather more than “just someone’s opinion” should be a given. One bone of contention in this year’s WBRRs was the assessment of British-trained Cracksman and Australiantrained Winx as joint top on 130. In effect, the handicapping committee viewed Cracksman as having repeated his best of the previous year, but Winx as having dropped 2lb from her peaks in 2017 and 2016. It is possible to pick holes in the former when it is realised that the third-placed horse in the race in which Cracksman earned his figure – the Czech-trained Subway Dancer in the QIPCO Champion Stakes at Ascot – does not appear in the WBRRs whatsoever, and therefore must be considered to be worth a rating of less than 115.
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A ratings debate
Simon Rowlands discusses some of the issues surrounding the World’s Best Racehorse Rankings of 2018 Using the BHA’s published handicapping methodology, either Cracksman ran to no higher than 126 in that win or Subway Dancer has simply, and conveniently, been ignored. Either way, the conclusion is not entirely satisfactory. Winx’s figure is less contentious, not least because she ran to it or near to it on several occasions, though again some creative handicapping has been applied to the race
identified by the WBRRs as her best: the Longines Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Randwick in April when she beat the 120-rated Gailo Chop by the equivalent of only about 4lb. One “problem” with Winx is that, as a mare, she usually receives a sex allowance of 2kg (4.4lb) in her races and therefore needs to beat her rivals that much more decisively to achieve the same rating as a male. consistency, versatility and
durability does not get rewarded, merely her raw ability as reflected in her best effort in the period under review. But that is how official master ratings operate, and everyone should know that by now. Timeform ratings, which predated WBRRs by several decades, are on a level 4lb to 5lb higher but in many other fundamentals are similar. Timeform would likely argue that leading sprinters Battaash
Cracksman: the WBRR believes he repeated his best from 2018, but has ignored Subway Dancer’s run at Ascot
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