A ratings' debate

Simon Rowlands discusses some of the issues surrounding the World’s Best Racehorse Rankings of 2018

Those of us who are, or who have been, professional handicappers in the European sense of the word tend to view the annual unveiling of official ratings at the World’s Best Racehorse Rankings with mixed feelings.

On the one hand, it is gratifying that the discipline – an arcane and private one for much of the time – gets its moment in the spotlight. On the other, it does seem to encourage some to make sweeping comments on matters about which they have only a passing knowledge.

Ratings are among horseracing’s unique strengths. They enable comparison between horses who have never met – both in the here and now and over history – and in the process can enhance enjoyment and understanding. No other sport has that to the same degree. It is certainly possible to quibble over some of the conclusions and methodologies – as I will go on to do! – but the general benefits of such an advanced system should be indisputable, while an understanding that ratings are rather more than “just someone’s opinion” should be a given.

One bone of contention in this year’s WBRRs was the assessment of British-trained Cracksman and Australian-trained Winx as joint top on 130.

In effect, the handicapping committee viewed Cracksman as having repeated his best of the previous year, but Winx as having dropped 2lb from her peaks in 2017 and 2016.

It is possible to pick holes in the former when it is realised that the third-placed horse in the race in which Cracksman earned his figure – the Czech-trained Subway Dancer in the QIPCO Champion Stakes at Ascot – does not appear in the WBRRs whatsoever, and therefore must be considered to be worth a rating of less than 115.

Using the BHA’s published handicapping methodology, either Cracksman ran to no higher than 126 in that win or Subway Dancer has simply, and conveniently, been ignored. Either way, the conclusion is not entirely satisfactory.

Winx’s figure is less contentious, not least because she ran to it or near to it on several occasions, though again some creative handicapping has been applied to the race identified by the WBRRs as her best: the Longines Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Randwick in April when she beat the 120-rated Gailo Chop by the equivalent of only about 4lb.

One “problem” with Winx is that, as a mare, she usually receives a sex allowance of 2kg (4.4lb) in her races and therefore needs to beat her rivals that much more decisively to achieve the same rating as a male. consistency, versatility and durability does not get rewarded, merely her raw ability as reflected in her best effort in the period under review. But that is how official master ratings operate, and everyone should know that by now.

Timeform ratings, which predated WBRRs by several decades, are on a level 4lb to 5lb higher but in many other fundamentals are similar.

Timeform would likely argue that leading sprinters Battaash (123 WBRR, currently 133 TF), Harry Angel (122/131) and Blue Point (120/129) are too low – which has a lot to do with the official pounds-per-length, being insufficient at shorter distances – as are the excellent stayers Kew Gardens (120/127) and Stradivarius (120/127).

Cracksman

Timeform might also argue that all of the best Japanese horses – headed by Japan Cup winner Almond Eye (124/126) – are 2lb to 3lb too high, though I am personally unconvinced.

Where the WBRRs have definitely got themselves in a bit of a pickle is with their recent initiative of identifying the “World’s Best Races” in a given year using methodology that is surprisingly crude.

“Race strength” is a well-known concept in existing handicapping practices, where you do not simply take a horse’s best annual rating – as opposed to the rating it ran to in the race in question – failing to distinguish between horses winning and finishing further down the field, or, for that matter, go back only as far as the fourth finisher.

By the WBRRs methodologies, Frankel contributed just as much to the race strength of the 2011 St James’s Palace Stakes, in which he scrambled home while running 20lb below form, as he did in magnificent victory in the same year’s Queen Elizabeth II Stakes.

It is a nonsense, which flies in the face of tried-and-tested handicapping procedures, and the sooner it is refined, the better.

It is also interesting to consider the distribution of the WBRR’s leading individual horse ratings by country.

By this measure, it was a good year for Australia (51 representatives rated 115 or higher, +4.6 on the average for the previous decade), Britain (53, +4.5), Hong Kong (25, +5.1) and Ireland (25, +5.5) and a disastrous one for France (17, -9.5). France’s highest-rated horse was the Arc third Cloth Of Stars on 123 – the lowest leading French figure in the history of the WBRRs and their predecessors, the International Classifications – despite his failing to win at all in 2018.

Less than half the number of French horses made the WBRRs in 2018 as in 2011: something seems to be amiss in what was once indisputably one of horseracing’s global superpowers.

Winx

If the official handicappers had their time again, it is likely they would have rated the 2018 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile somewhat higher.

That race’s winner, City Of Light (Quality Road), was assessed at 120 in the WBRRs, with runner-up Seeking The Soul not even making the 115 “cut”, but they duly finished first and second late in January’s Pegasus World Cup Invitational at Gulfstream Park, with 128-rated Accelerate third and the Dirt Mile third Bravazo in fourth.

Timeform had City Of Light on 127 going into the Pegasus, which he won by nearly 6l, and 130 coming out of it, so now equivalent to 125 or 126 on the WBRR scale. That’s good, but not as good as Gun Runner or Arrogate in the previous two runnings, and the heavilyfunded Pegasus can ill afford many more of the same.

Accelerate had been a contender for Horse of The Year honours at the recent Eclipse Awards in the US, but in the event he came second to the 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify.

The Eclipse Awards have a lot to do with popularity – they even ran an international Vox Populi Award, which was won by Winx – and very little to do with ratings. But everyone should know that by now, also.

City Of Light