update IPVEA ConnECtIng mEmbErs to nEw oPPortunItIEs InternatIonal PhotovoltaIc equIPment assocIatIon
July 2012
IPVEA for EnErgy StorAgE IPVEA is expanding its remit to help its members explore opportunities in energy storage. This decision is a result of consultation with many of the association’s members, including a survey earlier this year. Already a sizeable market, much larger opportunities are influencing the development of new energy storage technologies to meet complex and diverse storage demands. These include renewable and decentralised energy production and electric vehicle/transportation infrastructure. According to Pike Research, in 2015 the total market value for smart energy and smart energy storage combined will be $420 billion, an increase of 90% in a four-year period. Collectively PV equipment vendors have extensive expertise and knowledge acquired from designing tools for mass manufacturing across a diverse range of high-tech industries, such as flat panel displays (FPD), LEDs, semiconductor packaging, automotive and pharmaceutical packaging. This know-how can play a vital role in reducing the cost of energy storage technologies and products. Several of IPVEA’s members, such as Manz, Jonas &
Redmann, Oerlikon and Applied Materials, are developing tools for energy storage device production. IPVEA is well placed to leverage its extensive partnerships network, encompassing providers of conferences & exhibitions, news & media and market intelligence, to assist its members in finding out information on energy storage/ smart grid markets, technologies and applications. By joining forces with key partners serving the energy storage industry, such as associations, IPVEA will be able to provide new networking opportunities, explore PV and energy storage market synergies and open up the association to new members, building a stronger platform and centralised voice for the PV and energy storage equipment industries.
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CLICK HERE TO VISIT SCHILLER AUTO WEBSITE & READ MORE ABOUT THE IPVEA: EUROPE CLICK HERE TO VISIT SCHILLER AUTO P.O. Box 1610, D-63406, Germany WEBSITEHanau, & READ MORE ABOUT THE IPVEA: USA P.O. Box 771507, Orlando, Florida 32877 Tel: +1 407 856 9100 IPVEA: ASIA Room 603, APEC Plaza, 49 Hoi Yuen Road, Kwun Tong, Hong Kong Tel: +852 2623 2317 MAnAgIng DIREctOR: Bryan Ekus ekus@ipvea.com Registration Number: Court Hanau VR 31714 Issued on behalf of the International Photovoltaic Equipment Association (IPVEA). IPVEA has used its best efforts to ensure that all the information in this publication is upto-date. Any warranty to the correctness and actuality can not be assumed. IPVEA reserves the right to make changes or additions to the information made available at any time without notice. © 2012 International Photovoltaic Equipment Association. All rights reserved. Contents may not be reproduced by any means, in whole or part, without the prior written permission of the publisher. The opinions expressed in this publication are not necessarily those of IPVEA.
IPVEA nEWS IPVEA booth sponsorship opportunities at EU PVSEC WIP and IPVEA are pleased to announce an exclusive opportunity for the association’s members, comprising a sponsorship package on the IPVEA booth at the upcoming EU PVSEC in September in Frankfurt, Germany. For companies that do not plan on taking a booth at this year’s exhibition, for €3000.00 IPVEA booth sponsorship guarantees exposure at EU PVSEC, providing a base for networking and client business meetings through use of the exclusive IPVEA member lounge located on the booth. In addition IPVEA booth sponsorship provides companies with a great location within the exhibition to reach a wider audience during EU PVSEC.
IPVEA sponsorship Package Includes: One individual, branded sponsorship station, including seats, lockable cupboard, graphic area, power - everything you need to promote your business Free graphics - your company’s products will be displayed on your sponsorship station One product listing and member company description in the printed IPVEA newsletter that will be distributed at EU PVSEC 3 exhibitor passes Option to register for the EU PVSEC conference at the special reduced fee of €490
official status of the member company as Eu PVsEC co-exhibitor that includes: Presentation for Exhibitors on the EU PVSEC Website Presentation in the EUPVSEC Catalogue of Exhibitors EUPVSEC Visitor Marketing EUPVSEC Press Services Price for all this is just €3,000 but limited sponsorships are available! If you are interested please email ekus@ipvea.com
Great opportunities to raise visibility with IPVEA at EU PVSEC In addition to the IPVEA booth sponsorship offer, we are offering IPVEA members the opportunity to feature in our special EU PVSEC preview edition of the IPVEA newsletter.
Send your submission to news@ipvea.com 250 - 275 words Picture - 90mm (w) x 55mm (h) @ 300dpi Deadline 08 August 2012
2 | IPVEA UPDATE | JULY 2012
On the IPVEA booth this year we are creating a member’s lounge area, where all of our members can invite clients for meetings, or to simply relax and enjoy a coffee from our barista.
Both services are free to all IPVEA members.
INSIDE IPVEA
Location for IPVEA’s AGM – Board member post vacancies available
PV Production Forum programme published
IPVEA will be holding its Annual General Meeting (AGM), during EU PVSEC in Frankfurt.
Details of the PV Production Forum, a oneday parallel event during the 27th EU PVSEC in Frankfurt in September, are finalised and available on IPVEA’s website at:
Date: 27 september 2012 time: 8:30 – 10.00 Location: Analog 2, Forum Level 0. Board member Mr Ludgar Wahlers (ISRA Solar Vision) will be stepping down. In addition, with last year’s election of Elke Hoffman and Aßländer Ortrun to the board of directors, there are two vacancies on the advisory board. If you would like to nominate yourself to join IPVEA’s board or advisory board please email MD Bryan Ekus, ASAP, at: ekus@ipvea.com. Other discussion points will include the supported event calendar and new directions for IPVEA in 2013.
EuPD Research to provide Energy Storage workshop at IPVEA’s AGM In addition to overseeing a panel session on energy storage at the PV Production Forum, EuPD Research will also run an energy storage workshop at IPVEA’s Annual General Meeting (AGM) during EU PVSEC in Frankfurt on 27 September 2012. A renowned and experienced market researcher in the sustainable business sector, EuPD Research gathers first rate data and employs tried and tested research methodologies in its analysis, delivers high-integrity market intelligence and champions the fundamentals of sustainable business practices. http://www.eupd-research.com/
www.ipvea.org/pv-market-data/pv-forums-2012.html The 3rd PV Production Forum, co-organised by IPVEA, EU PVSEC and PV International, features presentations on market trends and latest technology and solutions for silicon and thin film PV cell and module manufacturing. The PV Production Forum 2012 addresses best practices and case studies that can assist management, purchasing staff, and product managers how to increase throughput, efficiency and save money in their production fabs. The forum will encompass energy storage within the Market Session and the afternoon will include presentations on OPV, thin film as well as silicon technologies. The PV Production Forum will include the following: Business Outlook: Solar Industry 2013, presented by Wolfgang Schlichting Research Director, Downstream PV Markets, Solarbuzz Panel session on energy storage, moderated by Markus A.W. Hoehner, CEO, Hoehner Research & Consulting Group Equipment executive roundtable discussion, moderated by John West, President, VLSI Research Europe Limited, Presentation on benefits leveraged by group purchasing, by Andreas Schöni, Managing Partner, Solar Purchasing Group Europe Panel session on quality counts, focus and aspect on materials, moderated by Mark Osbourne, Senior Editor, Photovoltaics International, PV-Tech.org. The event is free to attend for all registered participants of the 27th EU PVSEC. www.photovoltaic-conference.com www.photovoltaic-exhibition.com
IPVEA UPDATE | JULY 2012 | 3
IPVEA NEWS SNEC 2013 offer exclusive During the week of August 1-7 2012, IPVEA members that intend to exhibit at SNEC 2013 will have the opportunity to select booth space in the Material and Equipment Halls (E3E7) before the space is open to the public on 8 August. IPVEA Member price (inclusive of 10% discount) for raw space is $320/m2. If you would like to participate in this priority booth selection process, you are kindly asked to contact Mr Peter Xu directly by email or telephone before 30 July 2012 with the following information:
Company Name Contact person Contact information Booth Size required Hall Preference
View the initial SNEC 2013 floorplan: http://www.snec.org.cn/website/index.aspx?url=website/ common&menuid=1&lang=en Note: The floor plan is provided only as a reference and is not intended for you to make your selection as this time. Contact information Peter Xu Email: petersnec@gmail.com Office Telephone: +1 408 434 1993 Mobile: +1 510 219 6103 Marketing Manager -follow me Int’l Exhibition (USA) & SNEC 2055 Junction Avenue Suite 225 San Jose, California 95131
Members wanted for state of the market report by Lux Research As cell and module production has shifted to Asia, equipment manufacturers in the western hemisphere have continued to grow and thrive; but this may be about to change. Some of the price pressures are being transferred by module makers to equipment manufacturers. Lux Research’s Q3 State of the Market Report (SMR) will examine possibility of equipment manufacturing in low-cost countries, such as China and others. Also the report will review the changes required to the existing production lines as new technologies, such as selective emitter, interdigitated back contact, heterojunction, and metal-wrap-through increasingly become part of the upgrades or capacity ramps. Lux Research is soliciting interviews from PV equipment manufacturers to learn about how they are differentiating their products and what business strategies do they have in place to survive the existing market conditions. The interview participants can chose to remain anonymous. All interview participants will receive a copy of the Executive Summary of the report which will highlight the key findings. Please contact Lux Research’s Solar Components Analyst Fatima Toor, Ph.D. (fatima.toor@ luxresearchinc.com) for participation in an interview. About Lux Research Lux Research provides strategic advice and on-going intelligence for emerging technologies. Leaders in business, finance and government rely on us to help them make informed strategic decisions. Through our unique research approach focused on primary research and our extensive global network, we deliver insight, connections and competitive advantage to our clients Visit www.luxresearchinc.com for more information.
4 | IPVEA UPDATE | JULY 2012
MEMBEr nEWS bEnEq IPVEA welcomes Beneq as a new member IPVEA currently has many of the PV industry’s leading companies as members. All benefit from the exchange of ideas, as well as ways to develop business opportunities and strategic partnerships. We would like to welcome a new company to the association. Beneq is an applicationdriven thin film equipment provider. The company, headquartered in Finland, develops atomic layer deposition (ALD) and aerosol coating, nAERO® and nHALO®, for high-end R&D and demanding industrial environments. In the role of equipment manufacturer, Beneq is currently acknowledged as a leading authority, with in-depth experience and know-how of ALD and aerosol coating, and spear-head solutions for both equipment and applications. Beneq’s PV applications span c-Si, thin-film and organic PV technologies and include TCO, buffer layer for CIGS and surface passivation for c-Si. Beneq’s ALD has recently been successfully applied to several materials needed in lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries. Beneq’s mission is the same as its slogan: Turning Innovations into Success. www.beneq.com
AEg PowEr soLutIons AEG Power Solutions invests in solar equipment manufacturing in its South African subsidiary AEG Power Solutions is extending its presence in South Africa to solar equipment manufacturing, building a plant in Cape Town to back up this local development and provide premium solar inverters and monitoring equipment to the African market. 6 | IPVEA UPDATE | JULY 2012
The plant will produce utility-scale solar inverters and skytron combiner boxes for AEG’s monitoring and control systems and products. The factory, based in Milnerton, just outside of Cape Town, is 3,400 sqm, with the capacity to produce at least 200 MW per annum. The South African company has been registered and is operating under the same name as the group’s holding, 3W Power, and is selling under the AEG brand. www.aegps.com
sIkA New PV potting agent from Sika Sika AG’s new, fast curing two-component silicone-based potting agent Sikasil AS-787 SL enables shorter cycle times and a high automation index for junction box potting for crystalline and thin film PV technologies. Sikasil AS-787 SL features, despite the excellent flowing behaviour, a very short non-flow time to shorten and secure the storing time before handling and packaging. Due to the two component technology the fast and uniform curing is independent from humidity and can even be accelerated by slight heating. Thanks to the perfect balance of raw materials no sedimentation occurs and therefore no mixing is need prior to usage, like with other potting materials. The material can be applied with most of the common dispensing systems for potting materials. In addition to potting technologies, Sika is also offering adhesive and sealing solutions for framing, junction box and backrail bonding. Sika is a globally integrated company supplying specialty chemicals and application knowledge, with more than 120 production and marketing subsidiaries in over 70 countries with 13,500 employees. www.sika.com
MEMBER NEWS
mAnZ Manz celebrates 25 year anniversary “25 Years of High-Tech for a Green Future” was the slogan of the event held on 20th June, after Intersolar Europe, by Manz AG, based in Reutlingen, Germany, celebrating the 25th anniversary of the company’s founding. In addition to employees and long-term business partners, the approximately 700 guests included BadenWürttemberg’s state ministers Dr Nils Schmid and Franz Untersteller, the mayors of Reutlingen and Tübingen, Barbara Bosch and Boris Palmer as well as Joachim Walter, the Tübingen district administrator. In his greeting, Dr Nils Schmid, state minister of economics and finance, emphasized Manz’s uninterrupted innovative spirit: “For a quarter of a century, high-tech systems for important future industries around the world, such as renewable energy generation through PV and groundbreaking solutions in the field of display manufacturing for mobile communications, have come from Reutlingen. This shows that Baden-Württemberg is more than just a successful location for the automotive industry – although Manz is also leading the way in the field of electric transportation as well.” Founder and CEO Dieter Manz reminisced about the company’s beginnings at the event, which was held in front of Manz headquarters: “Over 20 years ago, we started to move PV from the lab into the production halls. We did this as a result of our convictions and, in doing so, initiated changes that Germany can be proud of today. With our technologies, we played a major role in making the cost of solar panels today a fraction of their initial prices. And now the vision we had back then is almost a reality – solar power will soon be more affordable than power from fossil fuels.” Dieter Manz emphasized the importance of Germany as a location for industry: “Of our 2,000 employees, over half work overseas – in production, sales, and service. But our roots are here in Germany, here in Baden-Württemberg, and this is where we can draw on an enormous amount of potential expertise. This is the only way we can successfully deliver the renowned art of German engineering to all corners of the earth.” Manz began operations in 1987 as a one-man office for automation technology. In the meantime, the company has diversified in a sustainable manner and has grown into a global manufacturer of integrated production
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systems for the growth markets of PV, flat panel displays, and lithium-ion batteries. Manz’s strength lies in the ability to make use of synergies among its areas of core expertise of automation, laser processing technology, wet chemical processes, vacuum coating, and inspection systems throughout a variety of applications in its strategic areas of business. The latest example of this is a wet chemical system for crystalline solar cells that was recently presented at Intersolar 2012 in Munich, developed using expertise from the flat panel display division. www.manz.com
IPVEA update Eu PVsEC preview A reminder that the August edition of IPVEA Update will feature a special preview of EU PVSEC. IPVEA members should submit news to news@ipvea.com 250 - 275 words Picture - 90mm (w) x 55mm (h) @ 300dpi Deadline 08 August 2012
IPVEA UPDATE | JULY 2012 | 7
HIGH-TECH PRODUCTION PLANTS
MEMBEr nEWS
We look forward to your EU PVSEC Frankfur visit: t Hall 3 | Booth J41
Grenzebach – Ready for CPV
roth & rAu CAMiNI firing furnace successfully qualified for mass production processes Roth & Rau, a member of the Meyer Burger Technology Group, has developed new technology for its “CAMiNI” firing furnace which sets new standards in terms of temperature stability and repeatability. The CAMiNI has also successfully qualified for use in mass production processes.
Grenzebach supplies tailor-made and innovative all-in-one solutions for semi- and fully automated CPV module manufacturing: – Base plate assembly lines – Handling equipment for lens plate manufacturing – Sub and main module assembly lines – Module quality assurance (e.g. Flasher, Hi-Pot, electroluminescence,…) – Scalable and expandable production lines
A large Taiwanese cell manufacturer deployed the CAMiNI furnace for the first time in its production lines. By the end of the qualification stage, involving a 1,000,000 wafer endurance trial, the manufacturer reported better process results than those achieved with competitor products. This success is due above all to the technologies newly developed for CAMiNI, which enable processes to be adapted flexibly to different cell types and which set new standards in terms of temperature stability and repeatability. Alongside its maintenance-free ceramic roller transport system, the integrated drier system within CAMiNI enables users to significantly shorten the processes involved. The customer achieved maximum cell efficiency rates of up to 19.14% during the qualification stage, against an average of 19%, while at the same time reducing energy consumption by approximately 50% and reporting extremely low breakage rates. Negative and reverse side effects were also avoided. Longer term, the furnace should enable customers to achieve efficiency enhancements and generate substantial operating cost savings. The product can be implemented within existing production lines
Grenzebach stands for: – More than 40 years of glass handling experience – Innovative, customized solutions – tailored to CPV requirements – Best precision for highest quality requirements – Complete control solutions with customized Manufacturing Execution Systems (MES) – Experience gained from implemented projects – Sustainable use of environmental resources – Stable value of a family business
Grenzebach – Your Perfect Partner for CPV Lines
www.grenzebach.com Grenzebach Maschinenbau GmbH Germany | Phone: +49 906 982-2000 | info@grenzebach.com Grenzebach Corporation USA | Phone: +1 770 253-4980 | info.gn@grenzebach.com Grenzebach Machinery (Shanghai) Ltd. China | Phone: +86 21 6126-8000 | info.gs@grenzebach.com
GB_ANZ_CPV_Solar_210x297_2012_V02.indd 1
N E W inescence in-line inspection tool TE R AS M Electrolum D L E I -Y LARSCAN SO
st d inspe For the fir e automate th in le ib s are fea
A „must“ for your cell production
The revolutionary quality tool for module production Benefits SOLARSCAN -YIELD MASTER: ROI in 3 month • Reduce the false rejects by factor of minimum 6 • Increase your maximum quality output by at least 3 % • Reduce production cycle more than “ 3 ” times
www.israsolarvision.com 8 | IPVEA UPDATE | JULY 2012
hnology
c Premiereti:me all benefits of the EctiLoten
During the firing process, the contact lines printed on the solar cell are burnt in and thus connected with internal emitters, enabling electricity to be conducted out of the cell. www.meyerburger.com
09.07.12 16:38
MEMBER NEWS oErLIkon LEyboLD VACuum Oerlikon Leybold Vacuum opens new operations in Singapore and India Oerlikon Leybold Vacuum has opened new production and service facilities in Singapore and India. Being close to customers is an important factor to meet the increasing demands of the local markets, also with standardized and fully customized vacuum solutions. The new premises of Oerlikon Leybold Vacuum Singapore Pte. Ltd., founded in 2000 now includes a service centre as well as a warehouse. With this new service centre Leybold Vacuum is now able to service the fore vacuum pumps in house, thus improving on turnaround times and reducing transporting issues. Customers will also benefit from the lean processes of the bigger warehouse as stock keeping and logistics are more effective thereby reducing delivery times and optimizing management. Similar improvements on customer oriented logistics and proximity will be provided by the new facilities of Oerlikon Leybold Vacuum in Pune, India. Founded in 2005, the opening of the new Centre of Excellence in May 2012, will also serve as a new assembly and service location thus catering to local demands of vacuum technology, engineering and services. Together with the recent production capacity increase at the manufacturing site in Tianjin, China, Leybold Vacuum acts on its strategic imperative of customer proximity. www.oerlikon.com/leyboldvacuum/
LohmAnn Lohmann promotes innovative adhesive solutions They may be invisible, but Lohmann adhesive products are used in many applications. In recent years, the active use of adhesives in the design and development of new products has become a rapidly growing trend within industry. Components are bonded efficiently and with unprecedented accuracy. Adhesive technology offers many advantages, as it generates a lightweight, clean, and above all secure adhesive bond. The creative ability of Lohmann adhesive engineers manifests itself in many ways. It is evident wherever you look, from the global specification work and individual product development through to innovative adhesive constructions. On-site mechanical integration of the adhesive solution supports and optimizes the customer’s
production process. Customers of the “Bonding Engineers” can also call on expert technical advice for all adhesive matters. With a long history stretching back over 160 years, Lohmann is one of the pioneering forces in adhesive tape technology. The Adhesive Tape Group is headquartered in Neuwied, Germany. The Group now offers the most advanced adhesive solutions to all corners of the globe. With 1600 employees worldwide, state-of-the-art coating plants at six sites in Europe, Asia and America, 17 subsidiaries and exclusive sales partners in over 50 countries, we have the best possible resources in place to guarantee that Lohmann solutions will continue to be in high demand across numerous areas of industry. www.lohmann-tapes.com IPVEA UPDATE | JULY 2012 | 9
KEy EVEntS 24-28 September 2012 Messe Frankfurt, Germany
Photovoltaics, Forms, Landscapes: How to Use PV for Shaping Nearly Zero Energy Communities Highlighting the interaction of PV systems with buildings and
Eu PVsEC 2012
landscape, and outlining the vision of a transition from PV
Parallel events programme announced
architects take up this challenge.
Architecture into urban and non-urban landscapes and how
The 27th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference
PV Production Forum
and Exhibition (27th EU PVSEC), taking place from 24 to
The one-day forum focuses on market analysis and
28 September 2012 in Frankfurt, Germany, presents the
new production processes and equipment reducing
comprehensive programme of Parallel Events.
manufacturing costs and increasing the performance for thin-
The parallel events are realised with renowned international organisations such as EPIA – European Photovoltaic Industry
film and crystalline PV technologies.
www.photovoltaic-conference.com/parallel-events.html
Association, IEA – International Energy Agency, IPVEA – International Photovoltaic Equipment Association, EU PVTP – European Photovoltaic Technology Platform.
22-23 November 2012 Maritim proArte Hotel in Berlin
The parallel events include: Mainstream and Maturing: Challenges and Opportunities for the PV Industry as it Moves towards High Penetration High penetration of PV into the electricity grid raises challenges and presents opportunities. How should the PV industry address them? These and further questions are debated by the 9th European PV Industry Summit. Risk Mitigation in PV Investments: The Key to Sustainable Market Development The Investors Day 2012 highlights finance topics including risk mitigation in PV investments, featuring CEO-level speakers from the industry, and representatives from banks, investment funds, insurance companies and analysts. What is a fair price for PV electricity? As PV becomes more widely affordable and retail electricity prices continue to skyrocket, governments may well distance
13th Forum soLArPrAxIs – IPVEA mEmbEr DIsCounts AVAILAbLE The 13th Forum Solarpraxis, Europe’s leading solar industry conference, will bring industry players into contact with representatives from politics, the financial world, the press and the industry’s suppliers. On 22-23 November at the Maritim proArte Hotel in Berlin, highprofile speakers will debate about key industry topics such as current legislation, global market trends, component supply and engineering, financing, marketing, quality and energy storage. For IPVEA members the following price offers are available, based on attending both days and includes: conference documentation, coffee breaks with snacks, two buffet lunches, buffet dinner on Thursday evening, 22 November:
themselves from political involvement in PV market growth.
Until 31 August 2012: €645.00 (standard €795.00)
What will be the approach to widespread deployment of PV
After 1 September 2012: €795.00 (standard €945.00)
taken by the electricity network businesses and their industry
After 9 November 2012: €945.00 (standard €1095.00)
regulators?
In 2011, more than 800 representatives of the solar sector, its
Very Large Scale PV Systems for Sustainability
component suppliers, finance, politics and the press attended
This event evaluates the potential of Very Large Scale
the 12th Forum Solarpraxis.
Photovoltaic Power Generation (VLS-PV) Systems, which would have GW-scale capacities, and how to accelerate and implement real VLS-PV projects. 10 | IPVEA UPDATE | APRIL 2012
www.solarpraxis.de/en/conferences/registration/
WEBINAR REPORT
EXCLUSIVE
Why investing in innovation is critical in tough economic times A recent webinar by Lux Research Inc reinforces what IPVEA has been communicating for some time – investing in innovation is a key tactic for those PV companies determined to survive the downturn. The topic was discussed by Lux Research’s Fatima Toor (PhD), in June in the webinar titled ‘Readying for Solar’s Renaissance: Tomorrow’s Winners of Today’s PV Innovation’. Global PV demand increase In the next five years global PV demand increase will be driven by Asia Pacific. By 2017, the market for PV demand will be in the region of 37 GW, with Europe, Middle East & Africa forecast to account for a little over 16 GW, Asia Pacific having approximately 17 GW, with just under 5 GW of demand in the Americas.
Global PV demand
demand to reach about 27 GW in 2017 and thin film demand accounting for a further 10 GW by then. Both CIGS and CDTE are forecast to grow, at the expense of amorphous silicon (a-Si). By 2017, CIGS share of PV demand will be just under 5 GW. High concentrated PV (HCPV) will begin adding several megawatts after 2014.
Long-term over-capacity fears Long-term over capacity is a real concern for the industry, with Lux basing its bearish forecast on China’s 12 five year plan, from 2011-2015, which has set a goal for 50,000 tonnes of polysilicon production per year and 5 GW of solar PV cell production capacity by 2015. However after 2015, Tier 3 manufacturers’ share should start to reduce. By 2017, raw capacity could be 80 GW, while demand is 40 GW. Actual capacity utilisation rates vary in different markets, also.
Long term overcapacity Furthermore, Lux expects that PV demand in emerging markets will more than quadruple in size between 2011 and 2017. South Asia will see the biggest growth initially, though this will even out in 2016 and 2017, followed by ASEAN, followed by Africa, South America and the Middle East. Most of the demand will come from China, India and Japan. Clearly, crystalline silicon (c-Si) is going to remain the dominant installed PV technology, with Lux forecasting
IPVEA UPDATE | JULY 2012 | 11
Over-capacity has contributed to hyper-competition in the PV industry. In order to survive the impending ‘bloodbath’ investment in innovation is going to be critical, according to Lux, citing Michelin, Sony and Apple as three global brands that developed highly successful market-defining products in recessionary times.
Innovation towards lowering the cost per watt – $/w Growth in high efficiency cell designs by Tier 1 module manufacturers and their close collaboration with universities and government labs to drive innovation is a common trend, says Lux, citing ECN in the Netherlands, which licenses technology to several manufacturers such as Canadian Solar and Yingli in close cooperation with equipment partners, including Tempress and RENA for n-type solar cells (‘n-Pasha alliance’) and Eurotron for metal wrap through (MWT) cells and modules. Cost, efficiency and price are the fundamental drivers of the PV industry, but even though low profit margins are today’s reality they are not necessarily tomorrow’s, according to Lux. By 2016, module prices will be less than $1/per watt, but profit margins will improve.
Low Profit Margins are Today’s Reality but Not Necessarily Tomorrow’s
High efficiency c-Si cell designs will increasingly account for a greater portion of capacity ramps, according to Lux. Lab scale technologies now commercialised include back side/junction, HIT, wrap through and selective emitter. By 2015 together these will account for 24% of capacity ramps. Selective emitter, the most cost-effective way to gain efficiency, will account for the highest share.
Commercial Technologies that Until Very Recently were Lab Scale – High Efficiency c-Si Cell Designs
CIGS, a commercial technology that until recently was lab scale, with less than 0.5 GW supplied in 2010 is forecast to peak, in terms of supply, at 3 GW in 2013. Winners should emerge after 2014, and by 2015, CIGS could be a $2.35 billion market with an average selling price of $1/Wp.
What does Lux’s bag of future-facing PV technologies consist of? Lux’s disruptive/future facing technologies are plotted on a ‘PV Technology Disruption Grid’. The resulting Top disruptive PV technologies are scattered across materials, processes, and cell competencies.
Innovation – spending on technology that leads to module efficiency improvements, or modules with increased power output, and reduces production costs, will become increasingly important as incentives decline.
Surveying the field Lux looked at scientific publications in the last three years to identify key promising innovation technologies. The US, followed by China, Germany, South Korea and Japan, leads in the number of scientific PV publications. The number of South Korean publications in the field has increased at the biggest rate, reflecting the government’s gathering interest in PV in recent years. 12 | IPVEA UPDATE | JULY 2012
WEBINAR REPORT
Top Disruptive PV Technologies Are Scattered Across Materials, Processes, and Cell Competencies Lux elaborates on a few of these, including Kerf-less Wafers, where direct solidification blazes the trail for Kerf-less wafering techniques, developed by 1366 Technologies. Epitaxial Si on substrates (Ampulse, NREL, ORNL) and electroplating & peel (AstroWatt), are also noted as long term prospects. Next up is indium tin oxide (ITO) replacements where transparent conductive coatings based on metal nanoparticles (Cima Nanotech, Mitsui, Applied Nanotech, NovaCentrix) or nanowires, (Cambrios, Carestream Advanced Materials, Duke University, NanoForge), as opposed to those based on carbon nanotubes or graphene, are promising in the near term. Longer term, copper zinc tin sulfide (CZTS) technologies are high-lighted, as materials that are similar to CIGS but use combinations of other elements to yield similar band gaps and absorption. But the work is still at a research stage in labs around the world with further progress needed to improve efficiencies for CTZS to be commercially viable.
What companies need to do to be successful, according to Lux PV innovation is not done yet; innovation is needed across the entire PV value chain to drive down costs and improve profit margins It is imperative to scout new PV technologies today to be best-positioned with next-generation products tomorrow To avoid future Evergreens and Solyndras, tomorrow’s PV winners will focus on innovative PV technologies, addressing $/W as the single most important metric.
© 2012 Lux Research. Charts and data, Source Lux Research.
About Lux Research This article is based on a webinar presented by Lux Research Analyst Fatima Toor, PhD. To enquire about Lux Research’s reports and other products, contact Carole Jacques by email carole.jacques@luxresearchinc.com or phone +1 617.502.5314
Lux Research background: Helps clients capitalize on science-driven innovation, identifying new business opportunities from emerging technologies in the physical sciences Provides both technology monitoring and market intelligence to support better business decisions Has over 150 clients worldwide, from blue-chips and investors to government agencies and universities Sources intelligence from direct interaction and onsite visits with CEOs and top executives at cutting-edge technology firms Has global reach, with over 75 employees in Boston, New York, Amsterdam, Singapore, Shanghai, Seoul, and Tokyo Combines deep technical expertise with business analysis; 60% of research team holds advanced degrees in science or engineering
IPVEA UPDATE | JULY 2012 | 13
为什么投资技术革新在 经济困难时期尤为重要 Lux研究公司最近组织的一次网络研讨会进一步说明 投资技术革新是光伏公司决心在经济低迷时期生存 下来的的重要应对策略，而这正是IPVEA所主张并 宣传的。
目前的利润比较低, 但未来未必如此
Lux研究 的 Fatima Toor 博士于6月份在题为“迎接 光伏行业复兴：今日的光伏技术革新赢得未来”的网 络研讨会中讨论了这个话题。 长期的产能过剩
技术革新-投资技术带来的模块效率提高或能量产出 增加以及生产成本的缩减将随着刺激的减少变得越 来越重要。 领域研究
产能过剩是光伏行业激烈竞争的因素之一。通过引 证米其林，索尼和苹果这三个全球品牌在经济衰退 时期推出了成功的市场定位产品，LUX研究认为为 了在残酷的竞争中生存下来，投资技术革新将会至 关重要。 技术革新降低每瓦特电能的成本 - $/w
为了找出最有前景的创新技术， LUX 研究了过去三 年里的科学出版物。美国是发行光伏科学出版物数 量最多的国家，其次是中国，德国，韩国和日本。 Lux认为高效单晶硅电池设计将越来越有助于容 量提高 。实验室规模的技术已被商业化，包括接 合，HIT，包围 和选择性射极。到2015年，超过 20%的容量提高将是因为这些技术。选择性射极是 提高效率最有效的方式，其贡献也将是最大的。
通过引证荷兰的ECN把技术授权给包括阿特斯太阳 能等多家制造商并和设备伙伴密切配合，这些设备 伙伴包括 泰姆普雷斯和瑞纳N型太阳能电池，LUX 指出第一层模块制造商在高效电池设计中的进步以 及他们同大学和政府实验室密切合作以推动技术革 新是一个普遍的趋势。 LUX认为成本，效率和价格是光伏行业最主要的的 因素，但即使目前的利润空间比较低，并不意味着 以后也是这样。到2016年，模块的价格将低于1美元 每瓦，但利润会增加。 14 | IPVEA UPDATE | JULY 2012
最近才发展至实验室规模的商业技术-高效单晶硅电
WEBINAR REPORT
池设计
关于LUX 研究
CIGS 是一门最近才发展到实验室规模的商业技 术，2012年它供应的能量不超过0.5GW，据预测， 它的供应量在2013年可高达3GW。2014年后应该会 有其他技术达到更高。到2015年，CIGS可能会成为 一个价值235万的市场，平均售价为1$/Wp。
这篇文章基于LUX研究公司的分析 师FATIMA TOOR 博士主持的网络 研讨会。任何关于LUX 研究的报告 和其他产品的疑问,请联系CAROLE JACQUE: 邮箱: carole.jacques@ luxresearchinc.com
LUX 认为将来的光伏科技包括哪些？
电话: +1 617.502.5314 LUX研究背景知识: - 帮助客户资本评估以科技为驱动力 的的革新,从物理科学的新兴科技中 发觉新的商业机会。 - 为明智的商业决策提供技术监测和 市场信息支持。 - 在全世界内有超过150个客户，涉 及股票和投资者到政府机构和大 学。. 顶级破坏性光伏科技遍布于材料，过程和电池性能。
顶级破坏性光伏科技遍布于材料,过程和电池性能 Lux对几项技术做了详细说明，包括直接凝固使得无 缝晶片技艺更加突出，这门技艺是由1366项技术发 展得来。同时也提到硅外延和电镀具有长期的发展 前景。 另外一个是防静电镀膜（ITO）替代物，透明导电涂 料以金属纳米粒子或纳米线为基础，而 不是以碳纳 米管或石墨为基础。这种替代物在短期内很有发展 前景。
- 通过于前沿科技公司的CEO及高层 管理人士的直接互动和现场访谈来 搜集信息。 - 遍布全球, 在波士顿,纽约, 阿姆斯特 丹,新加坡,上海,首尔和东京有超过 75名员工。 - 扎实的技术专业知识和商业分析相 结合；研究团队中60%的人员持有 科学或工程的高级学位。
根据 LUX,公司要想取得成功,需要做的些事情: - 光伏技术革新尚未完成,整个光伏价值链都需要技 术革新来降低成本,提高利润。 - 现阶段必须开发出新的光伏科技以成为准确定位 的未来下一代产品。 - 为了避免未来重蹈EVERGREENS 和SOLYNDRA 的覆辙,光伏行业的未来赢家们需专注于光伏革新 技术，把成本/价格作为最重要的衡量标准。学 位。
IPVEA UPDATE | JULY 2012 | 15
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